Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

Systematic review with expert consensus on use of extracorporeal hemoadsorption in septic shock: An Indian perspective

BACKGROUND

Septic shock is a severe form of sepsis characterised by deterioration in circulatory and cellular-metabolic parameters. Despite standard therapy, the outcomes are poor. Newer adjuvant therapy, such as CytoSorb® extracorporeal haemoadsorption device, has been investigated and shown promising outcome. However, there is a lack of some guidance to make clinical decisions on the use of CytoSorb® haemoadsorption as an adjuvant therapy in septic shock in Indian Setting. Therefore, this expert consensus was formulated.

AIM

To formulate/establish specific consensus statements on the use of CytoSorb® haemoadsorption treatment based on the best available evidence and contextualised to the Indian scenario.

METHODS

We performed a comprehensive literature on CytoSorb® haemoadsorption in sepsis, septic shock in PubMed selecting papers published between January 2011 and March 2023 2021 in English language. The statements for a consensus document were developed based on the summarised literature analysis and identification of knowledge gaps. Using a modified Delphi approach combining evidence appraisal and expert opinion, the following topics related to CytoSorb® in septic shock were addressed: need for adjuvant therapy, initiation timeline, need for Interleukin -6 levels, duration of therapy, change of adsorbers, safety, prerequisite condition, efficacy endpoints and management flowchart. Eleven expert members from critical care, emergency medicine, and the intensive care participated and voted on nine statements and one open-ended question.

RESULTS

Eleven expert members from critical care, emergency medicine, and the intensive care participated and voted on nine statements and one open-ended question. All 11 experts in the consensus group (100%) participated in the first, second and third round of voting. After three iterative voting rounds and adapting two statements, consensus was achieved on nine statements out of nine statements. The consensus expert panel also recognised the necessity to form an association or society that can keep a registry regarding the use of CytoSorb® for all indications in the open-ended question (Q10) focusing on "future recommendations for CytoSorb® therapy".

CONCLUSION

This Indian perspective consensus statement supports and provides guidance on the use of CytoSorb® haemoadsorption as an adjuvant treatment in patients with septic shock to achieve optimal outcomes.

A Molecular Rheology Dynamics Study on 3D Printing of Liquid Crystal Elastomers

This work presents a rheological study of a biocompatible and biodegradable liquid crystal elastomer (LCE) ink for three dimensional (3D) printing. These materials have shown that their structural variations have an effect on morphology, mechanical properties, alignment, and their impact on cell response. Within the last decade LCEs are extensively studied as potential printing materials for soft robotics applications, due to the actuation properties that are produced when liquid crystal (LC) moieties are induced through external stimuli. This report utilizes experiments and coarse-grained molecular dynamics to study the macroscopic rheology of LCEs in nonlinear shear flow. Results from the shear flow simulations are in line with the outcomes of these experimental investigations. This work believes the insights from these results can be used to design and print new material with desirable properties necessary for targeted applications.

The Association of Frailty and Neighborhood Disadvantage with Emergency Department Visits and Hospitalizations in Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification and population management strategies are critical for providing effective and equitable care for the growing population of older adults in the USA. Both frailty and neighborhood disadvantage are constructs that independently identify populations with higher healthcare utilization and risk of adverse outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the joint association of these factors on acute healthcare utilization using two pragmatic measures based on structured data available in the electronic health record (EHR).

DESIGN

In this retrospective observational study, we used EHR data to identify patients aged ≥ 65 years at Atrium Health Wake Forest Baptist on January 1, 2019, who were attributed to affiliated Accountable Care Organizations. Frailty was categorized through an EHR-derived electronic Frailty Index (eFI), while neighborhood disadvantage was quantified through linkage to the area deprivation index (ADI). We used a recurrent time-to-event model within a Cox proportional hazards framework to examine the joint association of eFI and ADI categories with healthcare utilization comprising emergency visits, observation stays, and inpatient hospitalizations over one year of follow-up.

KEY RESULTS

We identified a cohort of 47,566 older adults (median age = 73, 60% female, 12% Black). There was an interaction between frailty and area disadvantage (P = 0.023). Each factor was associated with utilization across categories of the other. The magnitude of frailty's association was larger than living in a disadvantaged area. The highest-risk group comprised frail adults living in areas of high disadvantage (HR 3.23, 95% CI 2.99-3.49; P < 0.001). We observed additive effects between frailty and living in areas of mid- (RERI 0.29; 95% CI 0.13-0.45; P < 0.001) and high (RERI 0.62, 95% CI 0.41-0.83; P < 0.001) neighborhood disadvantage.

CONCLUSIONS

Considering both frailty and neighborhood disadvantage may assist healthcare organizations in effectively risk-stratifying vulnerable older adults and informing population management strategies. These constructs can be readily assessed at-scale using routinely collected structured EHR data.

A Bayesian zero-inflated beta-binomial model for longitudinal data with group-specific changepoints

Timeline followback (TLFB) is often used in addiction research to monitor recent substance use, such as the number of abstinent days in the past week. TLFB data usually take the form of binomial counts that exhibit overdispersion and zero inflation. Motivated by a 12-week randomized trial evaluating the efficacy of varenicline tartrate for smoking cessation among adolescents, we propose a Bayesian zero-inflated beta-binomial model for the analysis of longitudinal, bounded TLFB data. The model comprises a mixture of a point mass that accounts for zero inflation and a beta-binomial distribution for the number of days abstinent in the past week. Because treatment effects appear to level off during the study, we introduce random changepoints for each study group to reflect group-specific changes in treatment efficacy over time. The model also includes fixed and random effects that capture group- and subject-level slopes before and after the changepoints. Using the model, we can accurately estimate the mean trend for each study group, test whether the groups experience changepoints simultaneously, and identify critical windows of treatment efficacy. For posterior computation, we propose an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that relies on easily sampled Gibbs and Metropolis-Hastings steps. Our application shows that the varenicline group has a short-term positive effect on abstinence that tapers off after week 9.

Effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease: a prespecified secondary analysis from the empa-kidney trial

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a wide range of patients. However, their effects on kidney disease progression in some patients with chronic kidney disease are unclear because few clinical kidney outcomes occurred among such patients in the completed trials. In particular, some guidelines stratify their level of recommendation about who should be treated with SGLT2 inhibitors based on diabetes status and albuminuria. We aimed to assess the effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease both overall and among specific types of participants in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA), and included individuals aged 18 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or with an eGFR of 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher. We explored the effects of 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily versus placebo on the annualised rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope), a tertiary outcome. We studied the acute slope (from randomisation to 2 months) and chronic slope (from 2 months onwards) separately, using shared parameter models to estimate the latter. Analyses were done in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and then followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroups of eGFR included 2282 (34·5%) participants with an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, 2928 (44·3%) with an eGFR of 30 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, and 1399 (21·2%) with an eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher. Prespecified subgroups of uACR included 1328 (20·1%) with a uACR of less than 30 mg/g, 1864 (28·2%) with a uACR of 30 to 300 mg/g, and 3417 (51·7%) with a uACR of more than 300 mg/g. Overall, allocation to empagliflozin caused an acute 2·12 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 1·83-2·41) reduction in eGFR, equivalent to a 6% (5-6) dip in the first 2 months. After this, it halved the chronic slope from -2·75 to -1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (relative difference 50%, 95% CI 42-58). The absolute and relative benefits of empagliflozin on the magnitude of the chronic slope varied significantly depending on diabetes status and baseline levels of eGFR and uACR. In particular, the absolute difference in chronic slopes was lower in patients with lower baseline uACR, but because this group progressed more slowly than those with higher uACR, this translated to a larger relative difference in chronic slopes in this group (86% [36-136] reduction in the chronic slope among those with baseline uACR <30 mg/g compared with a 29% [19-38] reduction for those with baseline uACR ≥2000 mg/g; ptrend<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Empagliflozin slowed the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease among all types of participant in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial, including those with little albuminuria. Albuminuria alone should not be used to determine whether to treat with an SGLT2 inhibitor.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly.

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

BACKGROUND

The EMPA-KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62-0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16-1·59), representing a 50% (42-58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1).

INTERPRETATION

In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council.

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub

Importance

COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear.

Objective

To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups).

Design

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario.

Setting

The entire United States.

Participants

None.

Exposure

Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster.

Main outcomes and measures

Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period.

Results

From April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths.

Conclusion and Relevance

COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.

Tailoring the Atomic-Local Environment of Carbon Nanotube Tips for Selective H2 O2 Electrosynthesis at High Current Densities

The atomic-local environment of catalytically active sites plays an important role in tuning the activity of carbon-based metal-free electrocatalysts (C-MFECs). However, the rational regulation of the environment is always impeded by synthetic limitations and insufficient understanding of the formation mechanism of the catalytic sites. Herein, the possible cleavage mechanism of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) through the crossing points during ball-milling is proposed, resulting in abundant CNT tips that are more susceptible to be modified by heteroatoms, achieving precise modulation of the atomic environment at the tips. The obtained CNTs with N,S-rich tips (N,S-TCNTs) exhibit a wide potential window of 0.59 V along with H2 O2 selectivity for over 90.0%. Even using air as the O2 source, the flow cell system with N,S-TCNTs catalyst attains high H2 O2 productivity up to 30.37 mol gcat. -1  h-1 @350 mA cm-2 , superior to most reported C-MFECs. From a practical point of view, a solid electrolyzer based on N,S-TCNTs is further employed to realize the in-situ continuous generation of pure H2 O2 solution with high productivity (up to 4.35 mmol cm-2  h-1 @300 mA cm-2 ; over 300 h). The CNTs with functionalized tips hold great promise for practical applications, even beyond H2 O2 generation.

A universal approach to dual-metal-atom catalytic sites confined in carbon dots for various target reactions

Here, a molecular-design and carbon dot-confinement coupling strategy through the pyrolysis of bimetallic complex of diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid under low-temperature is proposed as a universal approach to dual-metal-atom sites in carbon dots (DMASs-CDs). CDs as the "carbon islands" could block the migration of DMASs across "islands" to achieve dynamic stability. More than twenty DMASs-CDs with specific compositions of DMASs (pairwise combinations among Fe, Co, Ni, Mn, Zn, Cu, and Mo) have been synthesized successfully. Thereafter, high intrinsic activity is observed for the probe reaction of urea oxidation on NiMn-CDs. In situ and ex situ spectroscopic characterization and first-principle calculations unveil that the synergistic effect in NiMn-DMASs could stretch the urea molecule and weaken the N-H bond, endowing NiMn-CDs with a low energy barrier for urea dehydrogenation. Moreover, DMASs-CDs for various target electrochemical reactions, including but not limited to urea oxidation, are realized by optimizing the specific DMAS combination in CDs.

Demystifying the Role of Radiation Dose Bath in Brain Injury Using Machine Learning

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

It is well known that high-dose radiation results in brain injury, the long-term effects of low-dose radiation, however, is uncertain. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of low-dose bath on MRI changes, on both clinical and micro-architectural levels, using machine learning and computational methods.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Six hundreds and fifty-six temporal lobe and 45 whole brain DVHs from patients treated for nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) with IMRT or proton were included in this study. Temporal lobe injury (TLI) was defined as development of new T1 enhancement on MRI with or without surrounding T2 edema. Patients were divided randomly into train (50%) and test (50%) sets. Accuracy and AUC were used to evaluate the model performance. Minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) or SHAP algorithms was employed for feature selection. Support vector machine or random forest was used for classification. Automated cortical region segmentation using FreeSurfer v6 was performed in 33 patients with a minimum follow-up of 4 years. Architectural and biological MRI changes were determined in 34 different brain regions for each individual patient.

RESULTS

The top-ranked temporal lobe features predicting TLI were V66/V38 for IMRT patients and V10 for proton patients with an AUC of 0.95 and 0.74, respectively. For whole brain, the top features were V16 and V13 with an AUC of 0.70. The rates of TLI at 5 years for V10-20(whole brain) ≥ 180cc and V10-20(whole brain) < 180 were 39.5% and 6.2%, respectively (HR = 5.5, 95% CI 1.4-22.0, p = 0.02). There were global changes in gray matter thickness, with most pronounced changes occurred in parietal lobe (-4.79%, p = 0.007) and occipital lobe (-5.68%, p = 0.03). Similarly, there were diffuse changes in white matter and subcortical volume. After radiation, the frontal lobe increased by 17.5% (p = 0.04), lateral ventricle 41% (p = 0.03), and choroid plexus 34.3% (p = 0.03).

CONCLUSION

Low-dose radiation bath is associated with increased risk of temporal lobe injury and global disruption in brain architecture in NPC survivors.

Combating Dopaminergic Neurodegeneration in Parkinson's Disease through Nanovesicle Technology

Parkinson's disease (PD) is characterized by dopaminergic neurodegeneration, resulting in dopamine depletion and motor behavior deficits. Since the discovery of L-DOPA, it has been the most prescribed drug for symptomatic relief in PD, whose prolonged use, however, causes undesirable motor fluctuations like dyskinesia and dystonia. Further, therapeutics targeting the pathological hallmarks of PD including α-synuclein aggregation, oxidative stress, neuroinflammation, and autophagy impairment have also been developed, yet PD treatment is a largely unmet success. The inception of the nanovesicle-based drug delivery approach over the past few decades brings add-on advantages to the therapeutic strategies for PD treatment in which nanovesicles (basically phospholipid-containing artificial structures) are used to load and deliver drugs to the target site of the body. The present review narrates the characteristic features of nanovesicles including their blood-brain barrier permeability and ability to reach dopaminergic neurons of the brain and finally discusses the current status of this technology in the treatment of PD. From the review, it becomes evident that with the assistance of nanovesicle technology, the therapeutic efficacy of anti-PD pharmaceuticals, phyto-compounds, as well as that of nucleic acids targeting α-synuclein aggregation gained a significant increment. Furthermore, owing to the multiple drug-carrying abilities of nanovesicles, combination therapy targeting multiple pathogenic events of PD has also found success in preclinical studies and will plausibly lead to effective treatment strategies in the near future.

Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty. An evaluation of the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub

Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by the complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an epidemic, and uncertainties in how human action will affect transmission. Realistic longer-term projections (spanning more than a few weeks) may, however, be possible under defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers, with the additional benefit that such scenarios can be used to anticipate the comparative effect of control measures. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make 6-month ahead projections of the number of SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The SMH released nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections between February 2021 and November 2022. SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. Scenario assumptions were periodically invalidated by the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants, but SMH still provided projections on average 22 weeks before changes in assumptions (such as virus transmissibility) invalidated scenarios and their corresponding projections. During these periods, before emergence of a novel variant, a linear opinion pool ensemble of contributed models was consistently more reliable than any single model, and projection interval coverage was near target levels for the most plausible scenarios (e.g., 79% coverage for 95% projection interval). SMH projections were used operationally to guide planning and policy at different stages of the pandemic, illustrating the value of the hub approach for long-term scenario projections.

Modelling interventions and contact networks to reduce the spread of carbapenem-resistant organisms between individuals in the ICU

BACKGROUND

Contact precautions are widely used to prevent the transmission of carbapenem-resistant organisms (CROs) in hospital wards. However, evidence for their effectiveness in natural hospital environments is limited.

OBJECTIVE

To determine which contact precautions, healthcare worker (HCW)-patient interactions, and patient and ward characteristics are associated with greater risk of CRO infection or colonization.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

CRO clinical and surveillance cultures from two high-acuity wards were assessed through probabilistic modelling to characterize a susceptible patient's risk of CRO infection or colonization during a ward stay. User- and time-stamped electronic health records were used to build HCW-mediated contact networks between patients. Probabilistic models were adjusted for patient (e.g. antibiotic administration) and ward (e.g. hand hygiene compliance, environmental cleaning) characteristics. The effects of risk factors were assessed by adjusted odds ratio (aOR) and 95% Bayesian credible intervals (CrI).

EXPOSURES

The degree of interaction with CRO-positive patients, stratified by whether CRO-positive patients were on contact precautions.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The prevalence of CROs and number of new carriers (i.e. incident CRO aquisition).

RESULTS

Among 2193 ward visits, 126 (5.8%) patients became colonized or infected with CROs. Susceptible patients had 4.8 daily interactions with CRO-positive individuals on contact precautions (vs 1.9 interactions with those not on contact precautions). The use of contact precautions for CRO-positive patients was associated with a reduced rate (7.4 vs 93.5 per 1000 patient-days at risk) and odds (aOR 0.03, 95% CrI 0.01-0.17) of CRO acquisition among susceptible patients, resulting in an estimated absolute risk reduction of 9.0% (95% CrI 7.6-9.2%). Also, carbapenem administration to susceptible patients was associated with increased odds of CRO acquisition (aOR 2.38, 95% CrI 1.70-3.29).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this population-based cohort study, the use of contact precautions for patients colonized or infected with CROs was associated with lower risk of CRO acquisition among susceptible patients, even after adjusting for antibiotic exposure. Further studies that include organism genotyping are needed to confirm these findings.

Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

The role of oxygen-vacancy in bifunctional indium oxyhydroxide catalysts for electrochemical coupling of biomass valorization with CO2 conversion

Electrochemical coupling of biomass valorization with carbon dioxide (CO₂) conversion provides a promising approach to generate value-added chemicals on both sides of the electrolyzer. Herein, oxygen-vacancy-rich indium oxyhydroxide (InOOH-O_V) is developed as a bifunctional catalyst for CO₂ reduction to formate and 5-hydroxymethylfurfural electrooxidation to 2,5-furandicarboxylic acid with faradaic efficiencies for both over 90.0% at optimized potentials. Atomic-scale electron microscopy images and density functional theory calculations reveal that the introduction of oxygen vacancy sites causes lattice distortion and charge redistribution. Operando Raman spectra indicate oxygen vacancies could protect the InOOH-O_V from being further reduced during CO₂ conversion and increase the adsorption competitiveness for 5-hydroxymethylfurfural over hydroxide ions in alkaline electrolytes, making InOOH-O_V a main-group p-block metal oxide electrocatalyst with bifunctional activities. Based on the catalytic performance of InOOH-O_V, a pH-asymmetric integrated cell is fabricated by combining the CO₂ reduction and 5-hydroxymethylfurfural oxidation together in a single electrochemical cell to produce 2,5-furandicarboxylic acid and formate with high yields (both around 90.0%), providing a promising approach to generate valuable commodity chemicals simultaneously on both electrodes.

Prediction of soil ecotoxicity against Folsomia candida using acute and chronic endpoints

Soil invertebrates serve as great biological indicators of soil quality. However, there are very few in silico models developed so far on the soil toxicity of chemicals against soil invertebrates due to paucity of data. In this study, three available soil ecotoxicity data (pLC₅₀, pLOEL and pNOEL) against the soil invertebrate Folsomia candida were collected from the ECOTOX database (cfpub.epa.gov/ecotox) and subjected to quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) analysis using 2D descriptors. The collected data for each endpoint were initially curated and used to develop a partial least squares (PLS) regression model based on the features selected through a genetic algorithm followed by the best subset selection. Both internal and external validation metrics of the models' predictions are well-balanced and within the acceptable range as per the Organization for the Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) criteria. From the developed models, it has been found that molecular weight and presence of phosphate group, electron donor groups, and polyhalogen substitution have a significant impact on the soil ecotoxicity. The soil ecotoxicological risk assessment of organic chemicals can therefore be prioritized by these features. With the availability of additional data in the future, the models may be further refined for more precise predictions.

The COVID-19 Pandemic, Rising Inflation, and Their Influence on Dining Out Frequency and Spending

Background: High intake of food away from home is associated with poor diet quality. This study examines how the COVID-19 pandemic period and Food Away from Home (FAFH) inflation rate fluctuations influenced dining out behaviors. Methods: Approximately 2800 individuals in Texas reported household weekly dining out frequency and spending. Responses completed prior to the COVID-19 pandemic (2019 to early 2020) were compared to the post-COVID-19 period (2021 through mid-2022). Multivariate analysis with interaction terms was used to test study hypotheses. Results and Conclusion: From the COVID-19 period (before vs. after), the unadjusted frequency of dining out increased from 3.4 times per week to 3.5 times per week, while the amount spent on dining out increased from $63.90 to $82.20. Once the relationship between dining out (frequency and spending) was adjusted for FAFH interest rate and sociodemographic factors, an increase in dining out frequency post-COVID-19 remained significant. However, the unadjusted increase in dining out spending did not remain significant. Further research to understand the demand for dining out post-pandemic is warranted.

Extracorporeal blood purification strategies in sepsis and septic shock: An insight into recent advancements

BACKGROUND

Despite various therapies to treat sepsis, it is one of the leading causes of mortality in the intensive care unit patients globally. Knowledge about the pathophysiology of sepsis has sparked interest in extracorporeal therapies (ECT) which are intended to balance the dysregulation of the immune system by removing excessive levels of inflammatory mediators.

AIM

To review recent data on the use of ECT in sepsis and to assess their effects on various inflammatory and clinical outcomes.

METHODS

In this review, an extensive English literature search was conducted from the last two decades to identify the use of ECT in sepsis. A total of 68 articles from peer-reviewed and indexed journals were selected excluding publications with only abstracts.

RESULTS

Results showed that ECT techniques such as high-volume hemofiltration, coupled plasma adsorption/filtration, resin or polymer adsorbers, and CytoSorb^® are emerging as adjunct therapies to improve hemodynamic stability in sepsis. CytoSorb^® has the most published data in regard to the use in the field of septic shock with reports on improved survival rates and lowered sequential organ failure assessment scores, lactate levels, total leucocyte count, platelet count, interleukin- IL-6, IL-10, and TNF levels.

CONCLUSION

Clinical acceptance of ECT in sepsis and septic shock is currently still limited due to a lack of large random clinical trials. In addition to patient-tailored therapies, future research developments with therapies targeting the cellular level of the immune response are expected.

X-Ray Diffraction of Ramp-Compressed Silicon to 390 GPa

Silicon (Si) exhibits a rich collection of phase transitions under ambient-temperature isothermal and shock compression. This report describes in situ diffraction measurements of ramp-compressed Si between 40 and 389 GPa. Angle-dispersive x-ray scattering reveals that Si assumes an hexagonal close-packed (hcp) structure between 40 and 93 GPa and, at higher pressure, a face-centered cubic structure that persists to at least 389 GPa, the highest pressure for which the crystal structure of Si has been investigated. The range of hcp stability extends to higher pressures and temperatures than predicted by theory.

Traversing through the cell signaling pathways of neuroprotection by betanin: therapeutic relevance to Alzheimer's Disease and Parkinson's Disease

Modulation of cell signaling pathways is the key area of research towards the treatment of neurodegenerative disorders. Altered Nrf2-Keap1-ARE (Nuclear factor erythroid-2-related factor 2-Kelch-like ECH-associated protein 1-Antioxidant responsive element) and SIRT1 (Sirtuin 1) cell signaling pathways are considered to play major role in the etiology and pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Parkinson's disease (PD). Strikingly, betanin, a betanidin 5-O-β-D-glucoside compound is reported to show commendable anti-oxidative, anti-inflammatory and anti-apoptotic effects in several disease studies including AD and PD. The present review discusses the pre-clinical studies demonstrating the neuroprotective effects of betanin by virtue of its potential to ameliorate oxidative stress, neuroinflammation, abnormal protein aggregation and cell death. It highlights the direct linkage between the neuroprotective abilities of betanin and upregulation of the Nrf2-Keap1-ARE and SIRT1 signaling pathways. The review further hypothesizes the involvement of the betanin-Nrf2-ARE route in the inhibition of beta-amyloid aggregation through beta-site amyloid precursor protein cleaving enzyme 1 (BACE1), one of the pivotal hallmarks of AD. The present review hereby for the first time elaborately discusses the reported neuroprotective abilities of betanin and decodes the Nrf2 and SIRT1 modulating potential of betanin as a primary mechanism of action behind, hence highlighting it as a novel drug candidate for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases in the near future.

Road environment characteristics and fatal crash injury during the rush and non-rush hour periods in the U.S: Model testing and cluster analysis

This study aims to assess the relationship between county-level fatal crash injuries and road environmental characteristics at all times of the day and during the rush and non-rush hour periods. We merged eleven-year (2010 - 2020) data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System. The outcome variable was the county-level fatal crash injury counts. The predictor variables were measures of road types, junction types and work zone, and weather types. We tested the predictiveness of two nested negative binomial models and adjudged that a nested spatial negative binomial regression model outperformed the non-spatial negative binomial model. The median county crash mortality rates at all times of the day and during the rush and non-rush hour periods were 18.4, 7.7, and 10.4 per 100,000 population, respectively. Fatal crash injury rate ratios were significantly elevated on interstates and highways at all times of the day - rush and non-rush hour periods inclusive. Intersections, driveways, and ramps on highways were associated with elevated fatal crash injury rate ratios. Clusters of high fatal crash injury rates were observed in counties located in Montana, Nevada, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Nevada. The built and natural road environment factors are associated with county-level fatal crash injuries during the rush and non-rush hour periods. Understanding the association of road environment characteristics and the cluster distribution of fatal crash injuries may inform areas in need of focused intervention.

Poverty, Health Care Access Barriers, and Functional Limitations among Individuals with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: An 11-Year Cross-sectional Analysis, 2008-2018

OBJECTIVES

To assess the relationship between poverty, delayed care, unaffordable care, and functional limitations among individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

METHODS

Using the National Health Interview Survey data, we selected respondents with COPD, aged 40 years and older. The predictor variables were poverty and measures of delayed and unaffordable care. The outcome variable was functional limitations. We performed a survey-weighted multivariate logistic regression analysis, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics.

RESULTS

Respondents classified as poor had three times the odds of functional limitations compared with those classified as not poor. Respondents who reported having measures of delayed care or unaffordable care had two to nine times and two to four times the adjusted odds of functional limitations compared with those who did not report such measures of delayed and unaffordable care, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Poverty and delayed and unaffordable care are associated with functional limitations among individuals with COPD.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: A multi-model study

Background

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened nine modeling teams to project the impact of expanding SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to children aged 5-11 years on COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains.

Methods

Teams contributed state- and national-level weekly projections of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States from September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of 1) vaccination (or not) of children aged 5-11 years (starting November 1, 2021), and 2) emergence (or not) of a variant more transmissible than the Delta variant (emerging November 15, 2021). Individual team projections were linearly pooled. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated using meta-analyses.

Findings

Assuming that a new variant would not emerge, all-age COVID-19 outcomes were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. In this setting, vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in projections for all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios without childhood vaccination. Vaccine benefits increased for scenarios including a hypothesized more transmissible variant, assuming similar vaccine effectiveness. Projected relative reductions in cumulative outcomes were larger for children than for the entire population. State-level variation was observed.

Interpretation

Given the scenario assumptions (defined before the emergence of Omicron), expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits, as well as indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants.

Funding

Various (see acknowledgments).

Stability and Falls Evaluations in AMPutees (SAFE-AMP 2): Reduced functional mobility is associated with a history of injurious falls in lower limb prosthesis users

BACKGROUND

Injurious falls have a high cost and economic impact on an individual and the health system. Several studies have assessed performance-based functional mobility in lower limb prosthesis (LLP) users and fall risk including fall history. However, limited data exist regarding the relationship between functional mobility and a history of injurious falls in individuals who use a LLP. Such information could inform clinical practice and decision making from prosthesis design to policy. The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with a history of injurious falls among LLP users using a clinical outcomes database.

METHODS

Retrospective (2016-2018) observational study. Logistic regression applied.

RESULTS

A final sample of 12,044 LLP users was included for analysis. Within the sample, 1,529 individuals reported a history of an injurious fall within the previous 6 months. Self-reported functional mobility was stratified into low, middle, and high levels: differences were found between levels for history of an injurious fall. The lowest mobility level was associated with 2.29 higher odds of a history of an injurious fall (95% CI: 1.96-2.69) indicating a potentially greater serious fall risk compared to those with higher mobility levels while controlling for covariates (sex, cause of amputation and level of amputation).

CONCLUSION(S)

Self-reported functional mobility was associated with a history of injurious falls in LLP users. The Prosthetic Limb Users Survey of Mobility is an accessible tool that prosthetists could use to identify individuals with a high risk of falls; this can inform care planning. Rehabilitation plans and prosthesis designs that target LLP users who report low functional mobility may positively impact health outcomes.

Simulating and Forecasting the COVID-19 Spread in a U.S. Metropolitan Region with a Spatial SEIR Model

The global COVID-19 pandemic has taken a heavy toll on health, social, and economic costs since the end of 2019. Predicting the spread of a pandemic is essential to developing effective intervention policies. Since the beginning of this pandemic, many models have been developed to predict its pathways. However, the majority of these models assume homogeneous dynamics over the geographic space, while the pandemic exhibits substantial spatial heterogeneity. In addition, spatial interaction among territorial entities and variations in their magnitude impact the pandemic dynamics. In this study, we used a spatial extension of the SEIR-type epidemiological model to simulate and predict the 4-week number of COVID-19 cases in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), USA. We incorporated a variety of covariates, including mobility, pharmaceutical, and non-pharmaceutical interventions, demographics, and weather data to improve the model's predictive performance. We predicted the number of COVID-19 cases for up to four weeks in the 10 counties of the studied MSA simultaneously over the time period 29 March 2020 to 13 March 2021, and compared the results with the reported number of cases using the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) metric. Our results highlight the importance of spatial heterogeneity and spatial interactions among locations in COVID-19 pandemic modeling.

Channel-Hopping Sequence and Rendezvous MAC for Cognitive Radio Networks

In cognitive radio networks (CRNs), two secondary users (SUs) need to meet on a channel among multiple channels within a finite time to establish a link, which is called rendezvous. For blind rendezvous, researchers have devised ample well-grounded channel hopping (CH) sequences that guarantee smaller time-to-rendezvous. However, the best part of these works lacks the impact of network factors, particularly channel availability and collision during rendezvous. In this study, a new CH scheme is investigated by jointly considering the medium access control (MAC) protocol for single-hop multi-user CRNs. The analysis of our new variable hopping sequence (V-HS) guarantees rendezvous for the asymmetric channel model within a finite time. Although this mathematical concept guarantees rendezvous between two SUs, opportunities can be overthrown because of the unsuccessful exchange of control packets on that channel. A successful rendezvous also requires the exchange of messages reliably while two users visit the same channel. We propose a MAC protocol, namely ReMAC, that can work with V-HS and CH schemes. This design allows multiple rendezvous opportunities when a certain user visits the channel and modifies the conventional back-off strategy to maintain the channel list. Both simulation and analytical results exhibited improved performance over the previous approaches.

Garcinia morella extract confers dopaminergic neuroprotection by mitigating mitochondrial dysfunctions and inflammation in mouse model of Parkinson's disease

Dopaminergic neuroprotection is the main interest in designing novel therapeutics against Parkinson's disease (PD). In the process of dopaminergic degeneration, mitochondrial dysfunctions and inflammation are significant. While the existing drugs provide symptomatic relief against PD, a therapy conferring total neuroprotection by targeting multiple degenerative pathways is still lacking. Garcinia morella is a common constituent of Ayurvedic medication and has been used for the treatment of inflammatory disorders. The present study investigates whether administration of G. morella fruit extract (GME) in MPTP mouse model of PD protects against dopaminergic neurodegeneration, including the underlying pathophysiologies, and reverses the motor behavioural abnormalities. Administration of GME prevented the loss of dopaminergic cell bodies in the substantia nigra and its terminals in the corpus striatum of PD mice. Subsequently, reversal of parkinsonian behavioural abnormalities, viz. akinesia, catalepsy, and rearing, was observed along with the recovery of striatal dopamine and its metabolites in the experimental model. Furthermore, reduced activity of the mitochondrial complex II in the nigrostriatal pathway of brain of the mice was restored after the administration of GME. Also, MPTP-induced enhanced activation of Glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) and neuronal nitric oxide synthase (nNOS) in the nigrostriatal pathway, which are the markers of inflammatory stress, were found to be ameliorated on GME treatment. Thus, our study presented a novel mode of dopaminergic neuroprotection by G. morella in PD by targeting the mitochondrial dysfunctions and neuroinflammation, which are considered to be intricately associated with the loss of dopaminergic neurons.

Sepsis Management in Southeast Asia: A Review and Clinical Experience

Sepsis is a life-threatening condition that causes a global health burden associated with high mortality and morbidity. Often life-threatening, sepsis can be caused by bacteria, viruses, parasites or fungi. Sepsis management primarily focuses on source control and early broad-spectrum antibiotics, plus organ function support. Comprehensive changes in the way we manage sepsis patients include early identification, infective focus identification and immediate treatment with antimicrobial therapy, appropriate supportive care and hemodynamic optimization. Despite all efforts of clinical and experimental research over thirty years, the capacity to positively influence the outcome of the disease remains limited. This can be due to limited studies available on sepsis in developing countries, especially in Southeast Asia. This review summarizes the progress made in the diagnosis and time associated with sepsis, colistin resistance and chloramphenicol boon, antibiotic abuse, resource constraints and association of sepsis with COVID-19 in Southeast Asia. A personalized approach and innovative therapeutic alternatives such as CytoSorb® are highlighted as potential options for the treatment of patients with sepsis in Southeast Asia.

Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July-December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced 6-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July-December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, although may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model.

Dynamic downscaling and daily nowcasting from influenza surveillance data

Real-time trends from surveillance data are important to assess and develop preparedness for influenza outbreaks. The overwhelming testing demand and limited capacity of testing laboratories for viral positivity render daily confirmed case data inaccurate and delay its availability in preparedness. Using Bayesian dynamic downscaling models, we obtained posterior estimates for daily influenza incidences from weekly estimates of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and daily reported constitutional and respiratory complaints during emergency department (ED) visits obtained from the state health departments. Our model provides one-day and seven-day lead forecasts along with 95 % $$ \% $$ prediction intervals. Our hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Kalman filter algorithms facilitate faster computation and enable us to update our estimates as new data become available. Our method is tested and validated using the State of Michigan data over the years 2009-2013. Reported constitutional and respiratory complaints at the EDs showed strong correlations of 0.81 and 0.68 respectively, with influenza rates. In general, our forecast model can be adapted to track an outbreak with only one respiratory virus as a causative agent.

An assessment of the non-fatal crash risks associated with substance use during rush and non-rush hour periods in the United States

BACKGROUND

Understanding how substance use is associated with severe crash injuries may inform emergency care preparedness.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess the association of substance use and crash injury severity at all times of the day and during rush (6-9 AM; 3-7 PM) and non-rush-hours. Further, this study assesses the probabilities of occurrence of low acuity, emergent, and critical injuries associated with substance use.

METHODS

Crash data were extracted from the 2019 National Emergency Medical Services Information System. The outcome variable was non-fatal crash injury, assessed on an ordinal scale: critical, emergent, low acuity. The predictor variable was the presence of substance use (alcohol or illicit drugs). Age, gender, injured part, revised trauma score, the location of the crash, the road user type, and the geographical region were included as potential confounders. Partially proportional ordinal logistic regression was used to assess the unadjusted and adjusted odds of critical and emergent injuries compared to low acuity injury.

RESULTS

Substance use was associated with approximately two-fold adjusted odds of critical and emergent injuries compared to low acuity injury at all times of the day and during the rush and non-rush hours. Although the proportion of substance use was higher during the non-rush hour period, the interaction effect of rush hour and substance use resulted in higher odds of critical and emergent injuries compared to low acuity injury.

CONCLUSION

Substance use is associated with increased odds of critical and emergent injury severity. Reducing substance use-related crash injuries may reduce adverse crash injuries.

Age of Bottle Cessation and BMI-for-Age Percentile among Children Aged Thirty-Six Months Participating in WIC

Background: Children's age at bottle weaning typically ranges from 12 to 24 months. The recommended age of bottle weaning varies. The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends weaning by 12 months; The American Academy of Pediatric Dentistry recommends 12-15 months; The US Department of Agriculture recommends 18 months. Prolonged bottle use is associated with dental caries, iron-deficiency anemia, and child overweight or obesity. We examined factors associated with age of bottle cessation, and the association between age of bottle cessation and BMI-for-age percentile at age 36 months among Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) participants. Methods: Data were from the WIC Infant and Toddler Feeding Practices Study-2 (ITFPS-2). The ITFPS-2, a longitudinal study of WIC participants (mothers and their children) began in 2013. We used Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors associated with bottle cessation and multivariate linear regression to examine the association between age of bottle cessation and BMI. Results: About 34% of children used a bottle longer than 12 months, and 13% longer than 18 months. Bottle cessation at older ages was associated with Hispanic ethnicity, multiparity, low income, low education, higher caregiver weight, and not initiating breastfeeding. The adjusted children's BMI-for-age percentile at age 36 months increased by 0.47 for each additional month of bottle use. Conclusion: Prolonged bottle use was associated with increased children's BMI-for-age percentile. Future research is warranted to determine the optimal age to recommend bottle cessation for WIC participants.

Estimating mortality from coal workers' pneumoconiosis among Medicare beneficiaries with pneumoconiosis using binary regressions for spatially sparse data

Background

Coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP) is an occupational lung disease due to inhalation of coal dust. We estimated mortality from CWP and other pneumoconioses among Medicare beneficiaries.

Methods

We used the 5% Medicare Limited Claims Data Set, 2011–2014, to identify patients diagnosed with ICD‐9‐CM 500 (CWP) through 505 (Asbestosis, Pneumoconiosis due to other silica or silicates, Pneumoconiosis due to other inorganic dust, Pneumonopathy due to inhalation of other dust, and Pneumoconiosis, unspecified) codes. We applied binary regression models with spatial random effects to determine the association between CWP and mortality. Our inferences are based on Bayesian spatial hierarchical models, and model fitting was performed using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) algorithm in R/RStudio software.

Results

The median age of the sample was 76 years. In a sample of 8531 Medicare beneficiaries, 2568 died. Medicare beneficiaries with CWP had 25% higher odds of death (adjusted OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.46) than those with other types of pneumoconiosis. The number of comorbid conditions elevated the odds of death by 10% (adjusted OR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.09, 1.10).

Conclusion

CWP increases the likelihood of death among Medicare beneficiaries. Healthcare professionals should make concerted efforts to monitor patients with CWP to prevent premature mortality.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5-11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021-March 2022: a multi-model study

Background

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of persons aged 12 years and older has reduced disease burden in the United States. The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub convened multiple modeling teams in September 2021 to project the impact of expanding vaccine administration to children 5-11 years old on anticipated COVID-19 burden and resilience against variant strains.

Methods

Nine modeling teams contributed state- and national-level projections for weekly counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States for the period September 12, 2021 to March 12, 2022. Four scenarios covered all combinations of: 1) presence vs. absence of vaccination of children ages 5-11 years starting on November 1, 2021; and 2) continued dominance of the Delta variant vs. emergence of a hypothetical more transmissible variant on November 15, 2021. Individual team projections were combined using linear pooling. The effect of childhood vaccination on overall and age-specific outcomes was estimated by meta-analysis approaches.

Findings

Absent a new variant, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among all ages were projected to decrease nationally through mid-March 2022. Under a set of specific assumptions, models projected that vaccination of children 5-11 years old was associated with reductions in all-age cumulative cases (7.2%, mean incidence ratio [IR] 0.928, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.880-0.977), hospitalizations (8.7%, mean IR 0.913, 95% CI 0.834-0.992), and deaths (9.2%, mean IR 0.908, 95% CI 0.797-1.020) compared with scenarios where children were not vaccinated. This projected effect of vaccinating children 5-11 years old increased in the presence of a more transmissible variant, assuming no change in vaccine effectiveness by variant. Larger relative reductions in cumulative cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were observed for children than for the entire U.S. population. Substantial state-level variation was projected in epidemic trajectories, vaccine benefits, and variant impacts.

Conclusions

Results from this multi-model aggregation study suggest that, under a specific set of scenario assumptions, expanding vaccination to children 5-11 years old would provide measurable direct benefits to this age group and indirect benefits to the all-age U.S. population, including resilience to more transmissible variants.

A College Fast-Food Environment and Student Food and Beverage Choices: Developing an Integrated Database to Examine Food and Beverage Purchasing Choices among College Students

Universities typically offer residential students a variety of fast-food dining options as part of the student meal plan. When residential students make fast-food purchases on campus there is a digital record of the transaction which can be used to study food purchasing behavior. This study examines the association between student demographic, economic, and behavioral factors and the healthfulness of student fast-food purchases. The 3781 fast-food items sold at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte from fall 2016 to spring 2019 were given a Fast-Food Health Score. Each student participating in the university meal plan was given a Student Average Fast-Food Health Score; calculated by averaging the Fast-Food Health Scores associated with each food and beverage item the student purchased at a fast-food vendor, concession stand, or convenience store over a semester. This analysis included 14,367 students who generated 1,593,235 transactions valued at $10,757,110. Multivariate analyses were used to examine demographic, economic, and behavioral factors associated with Student Average Fast-Food Health Scores. Being of a low income, spending more money on fast-food items, and having a lower GPA were associated with lower Student Average Fast-Food Health Scores. Future research utilizing institutional food transaction data to study healthy food choices is warranted.

Factors that Influence Time to Prosthesis Receipt after Lower Limb Amputation: A Cox Proportional Hazard Model Regression

INTRODUCTION

Early mobility, functional independence, and ambulation are associated benefits after LLA, while an increased risk of clinical complications is associated with no prosthesis.

OBJECTIVE

The aims of this study were to describe time to prosthesis receipt after amputation and to assess the impact of patient demographic and health factors on the rate of prosthesis receipt within 12 months post-LLA.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort analysis using commercial administrative claims data. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazards models were applied to assess time to prosthesis receipt.

SETTING

Watson/Truven administrative database 2014-2016.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults age 18-64 with LLA who maintained their current insurance enrollment for 12 months after amputation.

INTERVENTIONS

Independent variables included diabetes/vascular disease status, amputation level, age, sex, and region.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Prosthesis receipt was defined based on the presence of codes billed for prosthesis services. Time was measured in days from date of amputation surgery.

RESULTS

Among the sample, 510 individuals maintained enrollment for 12 months post-amputation, of which 443 individuals received a prosthesis within that period (79% BK and 21% AK). The adjusted average rate of time to prosthesis receipt was 138 (95% CI: 113-185) days. Individuals with diabetes/vascular disease were 22% (HR: 1.22 95% CI: 1.02-1.49) more likely to receive a prosthesis earlier than individuals without diabetes/vascular disease and females received a prosthesis later than males at 141 (95% CI: 126-162) days vs 106 (95% CI: 96-119) days, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This study expands the understanding of factors that influence the likelihood of receiving a prosthesis along with the timing of prosthesis receipt after LLA among commercially insured adults. At least half of this sample received a prosthesis within 5 months or less. Disparities in timing and access to a prosthesis based on amputation level and sex were noted, future efforts are needed to address these issues. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Mitochondrial Complex II and III Activity in Brain Sections: A Histoenzymological Technique

Mitochondrial impairment stands to be a major factor which contributes to the onset and pathogenesis of several neurodegenerative disorders, of which Alzheimer's disease (AD), Parkinson's disease (PD), and Huntington's disease (HD) are among the notable ones. Extensive researches suggest the probable role of mitochondrial complex II and III dysfunction as underlying players in the pathogenesis of AD, PD, and HD. Present scenario of the world in occurrence of neurodegenerative disorders demands more research and development in this field. The development of enzyme histochemistry as an analytical technique has eased the assessment of mitochondrial complex activity at both qualitative and quantitative levels. Based on the principle of redox reactions of chromogenic substrates catalyzed by the enzymes in question, this histochemical analysis has been applied by researchers worldwide and has proved to be reliable. The present chapter hereby discusses the methods followed in performing histoenzymology of mitochondrial complex II and III activity. The chapter also puts light on the precautions which should be followed while performing histoenzymology in order to yield significant results.

The association of crash response times and deaths at the crash scene: A cross-sectional analysis using the 2019 National Emergency Medical Service Information System

BACKGROUND

Deaths at the crash scene (DAS) are crash deaths that occur within minutes after a crash. Rapid crash responses may reduce the occurrence of DAS.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess the association of crash response time and DAS during the rush and nonrush hour periods by rurality/urbanicity.

METHOD

This single-year cross-sectional study used the 2019 National Emergency Medical Services (EMS) Information System. The outcome variable was DAS. The predictor variables were crash response measures: EMS Chute Initiation Time (ECIT) and EMS Travel Time (ETT). Age, gender, substance use, region of the body injured, and the revised trauma score were used as potential confounders. Logistic regression was used to assess the unadjusted and adjusted odds of DAS.

RESULTS

A total of 654,675 persons were involved in EMS-activated road crash events, with 49.6% of the population exposed to crash events during the rush hour period. A total of 2,051 persons died at the crash scene. Compared to the baseline of less than 1 minute, ECIT ranging from 1 to 5 minutes was significantly associated with 58% (95% CI: 1.45-1.73) increased odds of DAS. Also, when compared to the baseline of less than 9 minutes, ETT ranging between 9 and 18 minutes was associated with 34% (95% CI: 1.22-1.47) increased odds of DAS. These patterns were consistent during the rush and nonrush hour periods and across rural and urban regions.

CONCLUSION

Reducing crash response times may reduce the occurrence of DAS.

Computation offloading technique for energy efficiency of smart devices

The substantial number of wearable devices in the healthcare industry and the continuous growth of the market procreates the demand for computational offloading. Despite major development of wearable devices and offloading techniques, there are several concerns such as latency, battery power, and computation capability that requires significant development. In this paper, we focus on the fact that most smart wearable devices have Bluetooth pairing with smartphones, and Bluetooth communication is significantly energy-efficient compare to 3G/LTE or Wi-Fi. We propose a computation offloading technique that offloads from the smartphone to the cloud server considering the decision model of both wearable devices and smartphones. Mobile cloud computing can elevate the capacity of smartphones considering the battery state and efficient communications with the cloud. In our model, we increase the energy efficiency of smart devices. To accomplish this, a Dhrystone Millions of Instructions per Second (DMIPS)-based workload measurement model along with a computation offloading decision model were created. According to the performance evaluation, offloading from wearable devices to smartphones and offloading once to cloud server can reduce energy consumption significantly.

Evaluating the association of self-reported psychological distress and self-rated health on survival times among women with breast cancer in the U.S

BACKGROUND

Psychological distress and self-rated health status may create additional complexities in patients already diagnosed with breast cancer. This study aims to assess the association of self-report-based assessment of psychological distress and self-rated health on survival times among women with breast cancer diagnoses.

METHODS

Seventeen-year data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series-National Health Interview Survey (IPUMS-NHIS) were pooled and analyzed. Women who were aged 30 to 64 years old, with breast cancer diagnosis were selected (n = 2,819). The outcome variable was time to death. The independent variables were self-reported assessment of psychological distress and self-rated health. Psychological distress was defined using the Kessler-6 scale while self-rated health was measured on a 3-point Likert scale: Poor, Fair, and Good-to-Excellent (referred to as good for brevity). We computed unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (HR) using Cox-Proportional Hazard regression models with sociodemographic characteristics and measures of health care access used as potential confounders. Significance was set at alpha = 0.05.

RESULTS

Women with breast cancer assessed as having psychological distress had 46% (Adjusted HR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.02-2.09) increased risks of mortality. Also, women who rated their health as poor or fair had a significantly elevated mortality risk (Poor Health: Adjusted HR: 3.05; 95% CI: 2.61-4.69; Fair Health: Adjusted HR: 1.83; 95% CI: 1.43-2.35) as compared to women with good health status.

CONCLUSIONS

Self-reported psychological distress and fair and poor self-rated health are associated with reduced survival times among women with breast cancer diagnoses.

Exploring the relationship of rush hour period and fatal and non-fatal crash injuries in the U.S.: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Road crashes are preventable causes of morbidity and mortality. In the U.S., substantial crashes occur during the rush hour period. The rush hour represents the period of the day during which the density of humans and vehicles in the road environment is highest. In the U.S., the rush hour period is bi-modal, occurring in the morning and the afternoon, at times that vary by state and urban-rural status. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the association between the rush hour period and fatal and non-fatal crash injuries. Selected articles were limited to peer-reviewed full-text articles that measured crash injury as an outcome and rush hour as either a predictor, covariate, stratification, or a control variable. A total of 17 articles were identified for systematic review and nine articles were included in the meta-analysis. Across the selected studies, the rush-hour period signified the period of "peak traffic flow." During the rush hour period, aggressive driving behavior, truck driving, bicycle riding, and precipitation were associated with increased crash events or crash injuries. Across the nine studies included in the meta-analysis, the effective sample size was 236,433. The rush-hour period was associated with a 28% increased risk of fatal crash injury (Pooled RR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.11-1.45) and the morning rush hour period was associated with 36% increased crash injury risk (Pooled RR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.13-1.59). The rush hour period, though less commonly studied as a predictor of fatal and non-fatal crash injuries, represents an important domain in need of crash injury prevention attention. The knowledge of the pattern of crash injuries, as it varies across countries, states, regions, and county can inform policy and intervention, in the presence of competing public health needs.

Carbon-based metal-free electrocatalysts: from oxygen reduction to multifunctional electrocatalysis

Since the discovery of N-doped carbon nanotubes as the first carbon-based metal-free electrocatalyst (C-MFEC) for oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) in 2009, C-MFECs have shown multifunctional electrocatalytic activities for many reactions beyond ORR, such as oxygen evolution reaction (OER), hydrogen evolution reaction (HER), carbon dioxide reduction reaction (CO₂RR), nitrogen reduction reaction (NRR), and hydrogen peroxide production reaction (H₂O₂PR). Consequently, C-MFECs have attracted a great deal of interest for various applications, including metal-air batteries, water splitting devices, regenerative fuel cells, solar cells, fuel and chemical production, water purification, to mention a few. By altering the electronic configuration and/or modulating their spin angular momentum, both heteroatom(s) doping and structural defects (e.g., atomic vacancy, edge) have been demonstrated to create catalytic active sites in the skeleton of graphitic carbon materials. Although certain C-MFECs have been made to be comparable to or even better than their counterparts based on noble metals, transition metals and/or their hybrids, further research and development are necessary in order to translate C-MFECs for practical applications. In this article, we present a timely and comprehensive, but critical, review on recent advancements in the field of C-MFECs within the past five years or so by discussing various types of electrocatalytic reactions catalyzed by C-MFECs. An emphasis is given to potential applications of C-MFECs for energy conversion and storage. The structure-property relationship for and mechanistic understanding of C-MFECs will also be discussed, along with the current challenges and future perspectives.