Models of immune selection for multi-locus antigenic diversity of pathogens

Novelty Search Promotes Antigenic Diversity in Microbial Pathogens

Driven by host–pathogen coevolution, cell surface antigens are often the fastest evolving parts of a microbial pathogen. The persistent evolutionary impetus for novel antigen variants suggests the utility of novelty-seeking algorithms in predicting antigen diversification in microbial pathogens. In contrast to traditional genetic algorithms maximizing variant fitness, novelty-seeking algorithms optimize variant novelty. Here, we designed and implemented three evolutionary algorithms (fitness-seeking, novelty-seeking, and hybrid) and evaluated their performances in 10 simulated and 2 empirically derived antigen fitness landscapes. The hybrid walks combining fitness- and novelty-seeking strategies overcame the limitations of each algorithm alone, and consistently reached global fitness peaks. Thus, hybrid walks provide a model for microbial pathogens escaping host immunity without compromising variant fitness. Biological processes facilitating novelty-seeking evolution in natural pathogen populations include hypermutability, recombination, wide dispersal, and immune-compromised hosts. The high efficiency of the hybrid algorithm improves the evolutionary predictability of novel antigen variants. We propose the design of escape-proof vaccines based on high-fitness variants covering a majority of the basins of attraction on the fitness landscape representing all potential variants of a microbial antigen.

Discrete stochastic models of SELEX: Aptamer capture probabilities and protocol optimization

Antibodies are important biomolecules that are often designed to recognize target antigens. However, they are expensive to produce and their relatively large size prevents their transport across lipid membranes. An alternative to antibodies is aptamers, short ([Formula: see text] bp) oligonucleotides (and amino acid sequences) with specific secondary and tertiary structures that govern their affinity to specific target molecules. Aptamers are typically generated via solid phase oligonucleotide synthesis before selection and amplification through Systematic Evolution of Ligands by EXponential enrichment (SELEX), a process based on competitive binding that enriches the population of certain strands while removing unwanted sequences, yielding aptamers with high specificity and affinity to a target molecule. Mathematical analyses of SELEX have been formulated in the mass action limit, which assumes large system sizes and/or high aptamer and target molecule concentrations. In this paper, we develop a fully discrete stochastic model of SELEX. While converging to a mass-action model in the large system-size limit, our stochastic model allows us to study statistical quantities when the system size is small, such as the probability of losing the best-binding aptamer during each round of selection. Specifically, we find that optimal SELEX protocols in the stochastic model differ from those predicted by a deterministic model.

Modelling the effect of within-host dynamics on the diversity of a multi-strain pathogen

Multi-strain pathogens such as Group A Streptococcus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Staphylococcus aureus cause millions of infections each year with a substantial health burden. Control of multi-strain pathogens can be complicated by the high strain diversity often observed in endemic settings. It is not well understood how high strain diversity is maintained in populations, given that they compete with each other both directly (within an individual host) and indirectly (via host immunity). Previous modelling studies have investigated how indirect competition affects the prevalence and diversity of strains. However, these studies often make simplifying assumptions about the direct competition that occurs within hosts. Currently, little data is available to validate these assumptions, hence there is a need to clarify how sensitive model outputs are to these assumptions. In this study, we compare the dynamics of multi-strain pathogens under different assumptions about direct competition between strains using an agent-based model. We find that the assumptions made about direct competition can affect the epidemiological dynamics, particularly when there is no long-term immunity following infections and a low rate of importation of non-circulating strains. Our results suggest that while direct and indirect competition can each decrease strain diversity when they act in isolation, they may increase strain diversity when they act together. This finding highlights the importance of examining sensitivity to assumptions about strain competition. In particular, omitting consideration of direct competition can lead to inaccurate estimates of the likely effectiveness of control strategies as changes in strain diversity shift the level of direct strain competition.

Immunogenic cell stress and death

Dying mammalian cells emit numerous signals that interact with the host to dictate the immunological correlates of cellular stress and death. In the absence of reactive antigenic determinants (which is generally the case for healthy cells), such signals may drive inflammation but cannot engage adaptive immunity. Conversely, when cells exhibit sufficient antigenicity, as in the case of infected or malignant cells, their death can culminate with adaptive immune responses that are executed by cytotoxic T lymphocytes and elicit immunological memory. Suggesting a key role for immunogenic cell death (ICD) in immunosurveillance, both pathogens and cancer cells evolved strategies to prevent the recognition of cell death as immunogenic. Intriguingly, normal cells succumbing to conditions that promote the formation of post-translational neoantigens (for example, oxidative stress) can also drive at least some degree of antigen-specific immunity, pointing to a novel implication of ICD in the etiology of non-infectious, non-malignant disorders linked to autoreactivity.

Maximum antigen diversification in a lyme bacterial population and evolutionary strategies to overcome pathogen diversity

Natural populations of pathogens and their hosts are engaged in an arms race in which the pathogens diversify to escape host immunity while the hosts evolve novel immunity. This co-evolutionary process poses a fundamental challenge to the development of broadly effective vaccines and diagnostics against a diversifying pathogen. Based on surveys of natural allele frequencies and experimental immunization of mice, we show high antigenic specificities of natural variants of the outer surface protein C (OspC), a dominant antigen of a Lyme Disease-causing bacterium (Borrelia burgdorferi). To overcome the challenge of OspC antigenic diversity to clinical development of preventive measures, we implemented a number of evolution-informed strategies to broaden OspC antigenic reactivity. In particular, the centroid algorithm-a genetic algorithm to generate sequences that minimize amino-acid differences with natural variants-generated synthetic OspC analogs with the greatest promise as diagnostic and vaccine candidates against diverse Lyme pathogen strains co-existing in the Northeast United States. Mechanistically, we propose a model of maximum antigen diversification (MAD) mediated by amino-acid variations distributed across the hypervariable regions on the OspC molecule. Under the MAD hypothesis, evolutionary centroids display broad cross-reactivity by occupying the central void in the antigenic space excavated by diversifying natural variants. In contrast to vaccine designs based on concatenated epitopes, the evolutionary algorithms generate analogs of natural antigens and are automated. The novel centroid algorithm and the evolutionary antigen designs based on consensus and ancestral sequences have broad implications for combating diversifying pathogens driven by pathogen-host co-evolution.

The adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 to humans

The process of adaptation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to humans probably had started decades ago, when its ancestor diverged from the bat coronavirus. The adaptive process comprises strategies the virus uses to overcome the respiratory tract defense barriers and replicate and shed in the host cells. These strategies include the impairment of interferon production, hiding immunogenic motifs, avoiding viral RNA detection, manipulating cell autophagy, triggering host cell death, inducing lymphocyte exhaustion and depletion, and finally, mutation and escape from immunity. In addition, SARS-CoV-2 employs strategies to take advantage of host cell resources for its benefits, such as inhibiting the ubiquitin-proteasome system, hijacking mitochondria functions, and usage of enhancing antibodies. It may be anticipated that as the tradeoffs of adaptation progress, the virus destructive burden will gradually subside. Some evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2 will become part of the human respiratory virome, as had occurred with other coronaviruses, and coevolve with its host.

Of variants and vaccines

In this issue of Cell, Bushman et al. show how more transmissible variants, even if they do not escape immunity, can be strongly selected during the early pandemic. This explains the dynamics of past SARS-CoV-2 variants, but as immunity increases, it is difficult to predict what will emerge next.

Evaluation of the Efficiency of Commercial Vaccines Against Infectious Bronchitis Virus (IBV) Belonging to the GI-16 Lineage Isolated in an Argentinean Outbreak

In this study we evaluated the effectiveness of adding serotype 793B vaccine to an immunization program in order to control the infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) GI-16 lineage. Therefore, two different experiments were performed. First, a virus cross-neutralization test was carried out, which indicated that neither the Massachusetts (Mass) nor 793B serotypes are antigenically related to the field isolate A13 (GI-16). We also performed a challenge trial to evaluate if the Mass/793B combination is more efficient than Mass/Connecticut (Conn) to protect chickens against the Argentinian variant A13. Thus, 40 chickens were organized in four groups. Chickens in Group A were vaccinated at 1 day of age with Mass serotype and then at 14 days old with Mass plus Conn serotypes. Chickens in Group B received Mass and 793B serotypes at 1 and 14 days old, respectively. Groups C and D remained unvaccinated. At 28 days of age, Groups A, B, and C were challenged with the A13 isolate, while Group D remained as the negative control. The statistical analysis of the ciliostasis evaluation, performed at 7 days postchallenge (dpch), indicated that the difference between Mass/793B and Mass/Conn was not significant (p > 0.05). However, the comparison against the negative control showed that only Group A was significantly different, suggesting a slightly better performance on blocking ciliostasis for the Mass/793B combination. On the other hand, no significant differences were observed in the viral load, quantified by reverse-transcription quantitative real-time PCR (RT-qPCR) in tracheal swabs and kidneys (at 3 and 7 dpch, respectively) between vaccinated groups. Furthermore, some amounts of the viral genome were found in both vaccinated groups that could indicate that neither the Mass/793B nor the Mass/Conn combinations totally inhibited the viral replication. Such viral replication in vaccinated chickens should seriously be taken into consideration because it could promote the selection of new variants in the future.

Tapping the immunological imprints to design chimeric SARS-CoV-2 vaccine for elderly population

The impact of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 disease susceptibility varies depending on the age and health status of an individual. Currently, there are more than 140 COVID-19 vaccines under development. However, the challenge will be to induce an effective immune response in the elderly population. Analysis of B cell epitopes indicates the minor role of the stalk domain of spike protein in viral neutralization due to low surface accessibility. Nevertheless, the accumulation of mutations in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) might reduce the vaccine efficacy in all age groups. We also propose the concept of chimeric vaccines based on the co-expression of SARS-CoV-2 spike and influenza hemagglutinin (HA) and matrix protein 1 (M1) proteins to generate chimeric virus-like particles (VLP). This review discusses the possible approaches by which influenza-specific memory repertoire developed during the lifetime of the elderly populations can converge to mount an effective immune response against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein with the possibilities of designing single vaccines for COVID-19 and influenza. HighlightsImmunosenescence aggravates COVID-19 symptoms in elderly individuals.Low immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in elderly population.Tapping the memory T and B cell repertoire in elderly can enhance vaccine efficiency.Chimeric vaccines can mount effective immune response against COVID-19 in elderly.Chimeric vaccines co-express SARS-CoV-2 spike and influenza HA and M1 proteins.

Cross-reactivity of antibody responses to Borrelia afzelii OspC: Asymmetry and host heterogeneity

The tick-transmitted bacterium Borrelia afzelii consists of a number of antigenically different strains - often defined by outer surface protein C (OspC) genotype - that coexist at stable frequencies in host populations. To investigate how host antibody responses affect strain coexistence, we measured antibody cross-reactivity to three different OspC types (OspC 2, 3 and 9) in three different strains of laboratory mice (BALB/c, C3H and C57BL/6). The extent of cross-reactivity differed between mouse strains, being higher in C3H than BALB/c and C57BL/6. In one of three pairwise comparisons of OspC types (OspC2 vs OspC9), there was evidence for asymmetry of cross-reactivity, with antibodies to OspC2 cross-reacting more strongly with OspC9 than vice versa. These results indicate that the extent of antibody-mediated competition between OspC types may depend on the composition of the host population, and that such competition may be asymmetric. We discuss the implications of these results for understanding the coexistence of OspC types.

An antigenic diversification threshold for falciparum malaria transmission at high endemicity

In malaria and several other important infectious diseases, high prevalence occurs concomitantly with incomplete immunity. This apparent paradox poses major challenges to malaria elimination in highly endemic regions, where asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections are present across all age classes creating a large reservoir that maintains transmission. This reservoir is in turn enabled by extreme antigenic diversity of the parasite and turnover of new variants. We present here the concept of a threshold in local pathogen diversification that defines a sharp transition in transmission intensity below which new antigen-encoding genes generated by either recombination or migration cannot establish. Transmission still occurs below this threshold, but diversity of these genes can neither accumulate nor recover from interventions that further reduce it. An analytical expectation for this threshold is derived and compared to numerical results from a stochastic individual-based model of malaria transmission that incorporates the major antigen-encoding multigene family known as var. This threshold corresponds to an “innovation” number we call R_div; it is different from, and complementary to, the one defined by the classic basic reproductive number of infectious diseases, R₀, which does not readily is better apply under large and dynamic strain diversity. This new threshold concept can be exploited for effective malaria control and applied more broadly to other pathogens with large multilocus antigenic diversity.

The vast diversity of the falciparum malaria parasite, as seen by the immune system of hosts in high transmission regions, underlies both high prevalence of asymptomatic infections and partial protection to re-infection despite previous exposure. This large antigenic diversity of the parasite challenges control and elimination efforts. We propose a threshold quantity for antigenic innovation, we call R_div, measuring the potential of transmission to accumulate new antigenic variants over time. When R_div is pushed below one by reduced transmission intensity, new genes encoding this variation can no longer accumulate, resulting in a lower number of strains and facilitating further intervention. This innovation number can be applied to other infectious diseases with fast turnover of antigens, where large standing diversity similarly opposes successful intervention.

An enlightening role for cytokine storm in coronavirus infection

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak in Wuhan, China has dispersed rapidly worldwide. Although most patients present with mild fever, cough with varying pulmonary shadows, a significant portion still develops severe respiratory dysfunction. And these severe cases are often associated with manifestations outside the respiratory tract. Currently, it is not difficult to find inflammatory cytokines upregulated in the blood of infected patients. However, some complications in addition to respiratory system with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are impossible to explain or cannot be attributed to virus itself. Thus excessive cytokines and their potentially fatal adverse effects are probably the answer to the multiple organ dysfunctions and growing mortality. This review provides a comprehensive overview of the mechanisms underlying cytokine storm, summarizes its pathophysiology and improves understanding of cytokine storm associated with coronavirus infections by comparing SARS-CoV-2 with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV).

Infections of the lung: a predictive, preventive and personalized perspective through the lens of evolution, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and its pathogenesis

The long evolutionary battle between humans and pathogens has played an important role in shaping the current network of host-pathogen interactions. Each organ brings new challenges from the perspective of a pathogen to establish a suitable niche for survival while subverting the protective mechanisms of the host. Lungs, the organ for oxygen exchange, have been an easy target for pathogens due to its accessibility. The organ has evolved diverse capabilities to provide the flexibility required for an organism's health and at the same time maintain protective functionality to prevent and resolve assault by pathogens. The pathogenic invasions are strongly challenged by healthy lung architecture which includes the presence and activity of the epithelium, mucous, antimicrobial proteins, surfactants, and immune cells. Competitively, the pathogens in the form of viruses, bacteria, and fungi have evolved an arsenal of strategies that can over-ride the host's protective mechanisms. While bacteria such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) can survive in dormant form for years before getting active in humans, novel pathogens can wreak havoc as they pose a high risk of morbidity and mortality in a very short duration of time. Recently, a coronavirus strain SARS-CoV-2 has caused a pandemic which provides us an opportunity to look at the host manipulative strategies used by respiratory pathogens. Their ability to hide, modify, evade, and exploit cell's processes are key to their survival. While pathogens like M. tuberculosis have been infecting humans for thousands of years, SARS-CoV-2 has been the cause of the recent pandemic. Molecular understanding of the strategies used by these pathogens could greatly serve in design of predictive, preventive, personalized medicine (PPPM). In this article, we have emphasized on the clinically relevant evasive strategies of the pathogens in the lungs with emphasis on M. tuberculosis and SARS-CoV-2. The molecular basis of these evasive strategies illuminated through advances in genomics, cell, and structural biology can assist in the mapping of vulnerable molecular networks which can be exploited translationally. These evolutionary approaches can further assist in generating screening and therapeutic options for susceptible populations and could be a promising approach for the prediction, prevention of disease, and the development of personalized medicines. Further, tailoring the clinical data of COVID-19 patients with their physiological responses in light of known host-respiratory pathogen interactions can provide opportunities to improve patient profiling and stratification according to identified therapeutic targets.

Shaping Polyclonal Responses via Antigen-Mediated Antibody Interference

Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) recognize conserved features of rapidly mutating pathogens and confer universal protection, but they emerge rarely in natural infection. Increasing evidence indicates that seemingly passive antibodies may interfere with natural selection of B cells. Yet, how such interference modulates polyclonal responses is unknown. Here we provide a framework for understanding the role of antibody interference—mediated by multi-epitope antigens—in shaping B cell clonal makeup and the fate of bnAb lineages. We find that, under heterogeneous interference, clones with different intrinsic fitness can collectively persist. Furthermore, antagonism among fit clones (specific for variable epitopes) promotes expansion of unfit clones (targeting conserved epitopes), at the cost of repertoire potency. This trade-off, however, can be alleviated by synergy toward the unfit. Our results provide a physical basis for antigen-mediated clonal interactions, stress system-level impacts of molecular synergy and antagonism, and offer principles to amplify naturally rare clones.

•

Multi-epitope antigens mediate antibody interference that couples B cell lineages

•

Trade-off exists between repertoire potency and persistence of broad lineages

•

Antigen-mediated synergy toward intrinsically unfit clones alleviates the trade-off

•

Amplifying rare clones by leveraging molecular interference structure

Experimental Evolution In Vivo To Identify Selective Pressures during Pneumococcal Colonization

Experimental evolution is a powerful technique to understand how populations evolve from selective pressures imparted by the surrounding environment. With the advancement of whole-population genomic sequencing, it is possible to identify and track multiple contending genotypes associated with adaptations to specific selective pressures. This approach has been used repeatedly with model species in vitro, but only rarely in vivo Herein we report results of replicate experimentally evolved populations of Streptococcus pneumoniae propagated by repeated murine nasal colonization with the aim of identifying gene products under strong selection as well as the population genetic dynamics of infection cycles. Frameshift mutations in one gene, dltB, responsible for incorporation of d-alanine into teichoic acids on the bacterial surface, evolved repeatedly and swept to high frequency. Targeted deletions of dltB produced a fitness advantage during initial nasal colonization coupled with a corresponding fitness disadvantage in the lungs during pulmonary infection. The underlying mechanism behind the fitness trade-off between these two niches was found to be enhanced adherence to respiratory cells balanced by increased sensitivity to host-derived antimicrobial peptides, a finding recapitulated in the murine model. Additional mutations that are predicted to affect trace metal transport, central metabolism, and regulation of biofilm production and competence were also selected. These data indicate that experimental evolution can be applied to murine models of pathogenesis to gain insight into organism-specific tissue tropisms.IMPORTANCE Evolution is a powerful force that can be experimentally harnessed to gain insight into how populations evolve in response to selective pressures. Herein we tested the applicability of experimental evolutionary approaches to gain insight into how the major human pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae responds to repeated colonization events using a murine model. These studies revealed the population dynamics of repeated colonization events and demonstrated that in vivo experimental evolution resulted in highly reproducible trajectories that reflect the environmental niche encountered during nasal colonization. Mutations impacting the surface charge of the bacteria were repeatedly selected during colonization and provided a fitness benefit in this niche that was counterbalanced by a corresponding fitness defect during lung infection. These data indicate that experimental evolution can be applied to models of pathogenesis to gain insight into organism-specific tissue tropisms.

A Mathematical Framework for Predicting Lifestyles of Viral Pathogens

Despite being similar in structure, functioning, and size, viral pathogens enjoy very different, usually well-defined ways of life. They occupy their hosts for a few days (influenza), for a few weeks (measles), or even lifelong (HCV), which manifests in acute or chronic infections. The various transmission routes (airborne, via direct physical contact, etc.), degrees of infectiousness (referring to the viral load required for transmission), antigenic variation/immune escape and virulence define further aspects of pathogenic lifestyles. To survive, pathogens must infect new hosts; the success determines their fitness. Infection happens with a certain likelihood during contact of hosts, where contact can also be mediated by vectors. Besides structural aspects of the host-contact network, three parameters appear to be key: the contact rate and the infectiousness during contact, which encode the mode of transmission, and third the immunity of susceptible hosts. On these grounds, what can be said about the reproductive success of viral pathogens? This is the biological question addressed in this paper. The answer extends earlier results of the author and makes explicit connection to another basic work on the evolution of pathogens. A mathematical framework is presented that models intra- and inter-host dynamics in a minimalistic but unified fashion covering a broad spectrum of viral pathogens, including those that cause flu-like infections, childhood diseases, and sexually transmitted infections. These pathogens turn out as local maxima of numerically simulated fitness landscapes. The models involve differential and integral equations, agent-based simulation, networks, and probability.

Localized Hypermutation is the Major Driver of Meningococcal Genetic Variability during Persistent Asymptomatic Carriage

Host persistence of bacteria is facilitated by mutational and recombinatorial processes that counteract loss of genetic variation during transmission and selection from evolving host responses. Genetic variation was investigated during persistent asymptomatic carriage of Neisseria meningitidis Interrogation of whole-genome sequences for paired isolates from 25 carriers showed that de novo mutations were infrequent, while horizontal gene transfer occurred in 16% of carriers. Examination of multiple isolates per time point enabled separation of sporadic and transient allelic variation from directional variation. A comprehensive comparative analysis of directional allelic variation with hypermutation of simple sequence repeats and hyperrecombination of class 1 type IV pilus genes detected an average of seven events per carrier and 2:1 bias for changes due to localized hypermutation. Directional genetic variation was focused on the outer membrane with 69% of events occurring in genes encoding enzymatic modifiers of surface structures or outer membrane proteins. Multiple carriers exhibited directional and opposed switching of allelic variants of the surface-located Opa proteins that enables continuous expression of these adhesins alongside antigenic variation. A trend for switching from PilC1 to PilC2 expression was detected, indicating selection for specific alterations in the activities of the type IV pilus, whereas phase variation of restriction modification (RM) systems, as well as associated phasevarions, was infrequent. We conclude that asymptomatic meningococcal carriage on mucosal surfaces is facilitated by frequent localized hypermutation and horizontal gene transfer affecting genes encoding surface modifiers such that optimization of adhesive functions occurs alongside escape of immune responses by antigenic variation.IMPORTANCE Many bacterial pathogens coexist with host organisms, rarely causing disease while adapting to host responses. Neisseria meningitidis, a major cause of meningitis and septicemia, is a frequent persistent colonizer of asymptomatic teenagers/young adults. To assess how genetic variation contributes to host persistence, whole-genome sequencing and hypermutable sequence analyses were performed on multiple isolates obtained from students naturally colonized with meningococci. High frequencies of gene transfer were observed, occurring in 16% of carriers and affecting 51% of all nonhypermutable variable genes. Comparative analyses showed that hypermutable sequences were the major mechanism of variation, causing 2-fold more changes in gene function than other mechanisms. Genetic variation was focused on genes affecting the outer membrane, with directional changes in proteins responsible for bacterial adhesion to host surfaces. This comprehensive examination of genetic plasticity in individual hosts provides a significant new platform for rationale design of approaches to prevent the spread of this pathogen.

Inter- Versus Intra-Host Sequence Diversity of pH1N1 and Associated Clinical Outcomes

The diversity of RNA viruses dictates their evolution in a particular host, community or environment. Here, we reported within- and between-host pH1N1virus diversity at consensus and sub-consensus levels over a three-year period (2015-2017) and its implications on disease severity. A total of 90 nasal samples positive for the pH1N1 virus were deep-sequenced and analyzed to detect low-frequency variants (LFVs) and haplotypes. Parallel evolution of LFVs was seen in the hemagglutinin (HA) gene across three scales: among patients (33%), across years (22%), and at global scale. Remarkably, investigating the emergence of LFVs at the consensus level demonstrated that within-host virus evolution recapitulates evolutionary dynamics seen at the global scale. Analysis of virus diversity at the HA haplotype level revealed the clustering of low-frequency haplotypes from early 2015 with dominant strains of 2016, indicating rapid haplotype evolution. Haplotype sharing was also noticed in all years, strongly suggesting haplotype transmission among patients infected during a specific influenza season. Finally, more than half of patients with severe symptoms harbored a larger number of haplotypes, mostly in patients under the age of five. Therefore, patient age, haplotype diversity, and the presence of certain LFVs should be considered when interpreting illness severity. In addition to its importance in understanding virus evolution, sub-consensus virus diversity together with whole genome sequencing is essential to explain variabilities in clinical outcomes that cannot be explained by either analysis alone.

Longitudinal dynamics of herd-level Mycobacterium bovis MLVA type surveillance in cattle in Northern Ireland 2003-2016

Investigating genetically-structured diversity in pathogen populations over time is important to better understand disease maintenance and spread. Herd-level surveillance of Mycobacterium bovis genotypes (multi-locus VNTR analysis types, MLVA types) from all culture-confirmed bovine tuberculosis (TB) herd cases was undertaken in Northern Ireland (NI), generating an unparalleled, longitudinal, population-level 14-year survey for this pathogen. Across this population, 295 genetically-distinct M. bovis MLVA types were identified in the 19,717 M. bovis isolates surveyed. Of these, the most frequent was MLVA type 002 (23.0%); 151 MLVA types were represented more than once, in groups ranging from 2 to 4438 isolates. Only 23 MLVA types were isolated in all 14 years. Investigating inter-annual frequency of M. bovis MLVA types, examples of statistically-significant expansions (MLVA types 002, 004, 006, 009 and 027), contractions (MLVA types 001, 007 and 011) and maintenance (MLVA types 003 and 005) were disclosed, during a period of fluctuating bovine TB herd-level incidence at the NI scale. The fixed period frequency distribution of MLVA types remained highly right-skewed. Novel VNTR copy number variant MLVA types (N = 242; an average of 17 per annum) were identified throughout the survey. The MLVA type distribution in the landscape was not random; MLVA types showed statistically-significant geographical localization and strong spatial associations with Divisional Veterinary Office (DVO) regions. There was also evidence of differential risk of particular MLVA types across breeds (Holstein/Friesian vs. other), age-class, and sex and some evidence of an association between the number of animals testing positive for bovine TB during the disclosing test and particular MLVA types, although there was substantial variation.