No evidence for globally coherent warm and cold periods over the preindustrial Common Era

Paleoclimate data assimilation with CLIMBER-X: An ensemble Kalman filter for the last deglaciation

Using the climate model CLIMBER-X, we present an efficient method for assimilating the temporal evolution of surface temperatures for the last deglaciation covering the period 22000 to 6500 years before the present. The data assimilation methodology combines the data and the underlying dynamical principles governing the climate system to provide a state estimate of the system, which is better than that which could be obtained using just the data or the model alone. In applying an ensemble Kalman filter approach, we make use of the advances in the parallel data assimilation framework (PDAF), which provides parallel data assimilation functionality with a relatively small increase in computation time. We find that the data assimilation solution depends strongly on the background evolution of the decaying ice sheets rather than the assimilated temperatures. Two different ice sheet reconstructions result in a different deglacial meltwater history, affecting the large-scale ocean circulation and, consequently, the surface temperature. We find that the influence of data assimilation is more pronounced on regional scales than on the global mean. In particular, data assimilation has a stronger effect during millennial warming and cooling phases, such as the Bølling-Allerød and Younger Dryas, especially at high latitudes with heterogeneous temperature patterns. Our approach is a step toward a comprehensive paleo-reanalysis on multi-millennial time scales, including incorporating available paleoclimate data and accounting for their uncertainties in representing regional climates.

Participation 3.0 in the implementation of the energy transition-Components and effectiveness of an interactive dialogue tool (Vision:En 2040)

The allocation of renewable energy plants, especially wind turbines, is stagnating in Germany. Although the citizens approve of the energy transition, they resist concrete local projects. In recent years, research has shown that interactive map applications support participatory planning through motivation, social interaction, and knowledge transfer. We aim to reduce biases against renewable energy (RE) and support informed decision making while accepting local responsibility. We hypothesized that finding a new gamified participation format, based on behavioral mechanisms, would strengthen the empowerment of people. To this end, we designed a dialogue tool and participation format, 'Vision:En 2040', which combines: (i) a precise target electricity yield, (ii) an interactive map showing results of people's actions, information about environmental impacts, and (iii) game rules which foster cooperation. In facilitated workshops, participants simulate the allocation of wind and photovoltaic power plants in their municipality to achieve a target electricity yield. The developed tool is based on methods of environmental planning and geoinformatics. 'Vision:En 2040' was systematically tested with a technical test and a pre-test. In addition, its impact on participants was assessed through surveys and qualitative content analysis. The evaluation results show that the tool can influence the acceptance of the energy transition in terms of attitude. Through 'Vision:En 2040', participants became aware of the community's responsibility in the energy transition and expanded their knowledge. In addition, decision makers used the workshop results to plan RE sites. Our results indicate that 'Vision:En 2040' is helpful for informal citizen participation in accelerating the energy transition.

Genetics and Evolution of Bird Migration

Bird migration has long been a subject of fascination for humankind and is a behavior that is both intricate and multifaceted. In recent years, advances in technology, particularly in the fields of genomics and animal tracking, have enabled significant progress in our understanding of this phenomenon. In this review, we provide an overview of the latest advancements in the genetics of bird migration, with a particular focus on genomics, and examine various factors that contribute to the evolution of this behavior, including climate change. Integration of research from the fields of genomics, ecology, and evolution can enhance our comprehension of the complex mechanisms involved in bird migration and inform conservation efforts in a rapidly changing world.

ModE-RA: a global monthly paleo-reanalysis of the modern era 1421 to 2008

The Modern Era Reanalysis (ModE-RA) is a global monthly paleo-reanalysis covering the period between 1421 and 2008. To reconstruct past climate fields an offline data assimilation approach is used, blending together information from an ensemble of transient atmospheric model simulations and observations. In the early period, ModE-RA utilizes natural proxies and documentary data, while from the 17th century onward instrumental measurements are also assimilated. The impact of each observation on the reconstruction is stored in the observation feedback archive, which provides additional information on the input data such as preprocessing steps and the regression-based forward models. The monthly resolved reconstructions include estimates of the most important climate fields. Furthermore, we provide a reconstruction, ModE-RAclim, which together with ModE-RA and the model simulations allows to disentangle the role of observations and model forcings. ModE-RA is best suited to study intra-annual to multi-decadal climate variability and to analyze the causes and mechanisms of past extreme climate events.

Caribbean salinity anomalies contributed to variable North Atlantic circulation and climate during the Common Era

Paleoceanographic reconstructions show that the strength of North Atlantic currents decreased during the Little Ice Age. In contrast, the role of ocean circulation in climate regulation during earlier historical epochs of the Common Era (C.E.) remains unclear. Here, we reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity in the Caribbean Basin for the past 1700 years using the isotopic and elemental composition of planktic foraminifera tests. Centennial-scale SST and salinity variations in the Caribbean co-occur with (hydro)climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere and are linked to a North Atlantic SST forcing. Cold phases around 600, 800, and 1400 to 1600 C.E. are characterized by Caribbean salinification and Gulf of Mexico freshening that implies reductions in the strength of North Atlantic surface circulation. We suggest that the associated changes in the meridional salt advection contributed to the historical climate variability of the C.E.

A pseudoproxy emulation of the PAGES 2k database using a hierarchy of proxy system models

Paleoclimate reconstructions are now integral to climate assessments, yet the consequences of using different methodologies and proxy data require rigorous benchmarking. Pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs) provide a tractable and transparent test bed for evaluating climate reconstruction methods and their sensitivity to aspects of real-world proxy networks. Here we develop a dataset that leverages proxy system models (PSMs) for this purpose, which emulates the essential physical, chemical, biological, and geological processes that translate climate signals into proxy records, making these synthetic proxies more relevant to the real world. We apply a suite of PSMs to emulate the widely-used PAGES 2k dataset, including realistic spatiotemporal sampling and error structure. A hierarchical approach allows us to produce many variants of this base dataset, isolating the impact of sampling bias in time and space, representation error, sampling error, and other assumptions. Combining these various experiments produces a rich dataset ("pseudoPAGES2k") for many applications. As an illustration, we show how to conduct a PPE with this dataset based on emerging climate field reconstruction techniques.

Fennoscandian tree-ring anatomy shows a warmer modern than medieval climate

Earth system models and various climate proxy sources indicate global warming is unprecedented during at least the Common Era1. However, tree-ring proxies often estimate temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 CE) that are similar to, or exceed, those recorded for the past century2,3, in contrast to simulation experiments at regional scales4. This not only calls into question the reliability of models and proxies but also contributes to uncertainty in future climate projections5. Here we show that the current climate of the Fennoscandian Peninsula is substantially warmer than that of the medieval period. This highlights the dominant role of anthropogenic forcing in climate warming even at the regional scale, thereby reconciling inconsistencies between reconstructions and model simulations. We used an annually resolved 1,170-year-long tree-ring record that relies exclusively on tracheid anatomical measurements from Pinus sylvestris trees, providing high-fidelity measurements of instrumental temperature variability during the warm season. We therefore call for the construction of more such millennia-long records to further improve our understanding and reduce uncertainties around historical and future climate change at inter-regional and eventually global scales.

Trends and variability in the Southern Annular Mode over the Common Era

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere and has wide ranging effects on ecosystems and societies. Despite the SAM's importance, paleoclimate reconstructions disagree on its variability and trends over the Common Era, which may be linked to variability in SAM teleconnections and the influence of specific proxies. Here, we use data assimilation with a multi-model prior to reconstruct the SAM over the last 2000 years using temperature and drought-sensitive climate proxies. Our method does not assume a stationary relationship between the SAM and the proxy records and allows us to identify critical paleoclimate records and quantify reconstruction uncertainty through time. We find no evidence for a forced response in SAM variability prior to the 20th century. We do find the modern positive trend falls outside the 2σ range of the prior 2000 years at multidecadal time scales, supporting the inference that the SAM's positive trend over the last several decades is a response to anthropogenic climate change.

A 2.5° × 2.5° gridded drought/flood grades dataset for eastern China during the last millennium

Hydroclimate reconstruction for the last millennium is essential to understand the differences in hydroclimate extremes and their causes under cold/warm conditions. In this study, the first gridded drought/flood grades (D/F grades) dataset in eastern China (EC) during the last millennium was generated. This D/F grades dataset mainly consisted of two components. The first section was created by interpolating drought/flood grades from 1500 to 2000 using the angular distance weight method. Sampling error estimates were employed to assess the effects of the interpolated dataset. The second section for the D/F grades dataset during 960-1500 was generated by constructing best subset regression models using selected tree-ring chronologies in the United States through atmospheric teleconnection. The validation parameters of the calibration equations were also derived, including the adjusted R², predicted R², RE, and CE. This dataset provides critical support for investigating the characteristics and causes of hydroclimate extremes in EC at various spatiotemporal scales, as well as the relationship with climate modes, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and East Asia Summer Monsoon.

Plutonium-based radiometric dating of rapidly accumulated sediments in the Sanyuan sinkhole, southern Chinese Loess Plateau

Radionuclides, such as ²¹⁰Pb, ¹³⁷Cs and ^239,240Pu, have been widely used for dating recent sediments in terrestrial and marine environments, while ¹²⁹I, as an important artificial radionuclide in the environment, is also a potential tracer for sediment dating and environmental process studies. However, they were not always successfully applied to sediment dating because of their different sources, half-lives, environmental behaviour and measurement techniques. The dating applicability of these nuclides in a sedimentary environment with rapid accumulation on land was investigated for sinkhole sediment from the southern Chinese Loess Plateau. Our results showed that ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs could not be adequately used for dating the sediments due to the difficulties in accurately measuring ¹³⁷Cs and excess ²¹⁰Pb (²¹⁰Pb_ex) signals caused by the dilution effect of rapid accumulation. ¹²⁹I is not an ideal dating tracer because of its multisource feature causing no remarkable peak value in the sediment cores. The depth distribution of ^239,240Pu in the sediment core showed a single peak corresponding to its maximum fallout in 1963 from the atmospheric nuclear weapons test, suggesting that Pu isotopes have significant advantages in dating recent sediments. The sensitive inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) measurement technique enables the determination of very low levels of ²³⁹Pu and ²⁴⁰Pu and makes ^239,240Pu a suitable tracer for dating the rapidly accumulated sediment. Based on the ^239,240Pu mass balance equation estimation and field observations, we proposed the water-eroded input from soil surrounding the sinkhole as another vital source of the sediments in addition to the aeolian contribution.

Spatiotemporal patterns of organic carbon burial over the last century in Lake Qinghai, the largest lake on the Tibetan Plateau

Lakes are important carbon sinks in terrestrial environments. However, the estimation of the global lake carbon sink has large uncertainty. Data from plateau and remote lakes are rare, and most studies of carbon sequestration in large lakes have been based on single or a few sediment cores. Here, twenty-five sediment cores were collected by grid sampling covering Lake Qinghai, the largest lake on the Tibetan Plateau. Age models were established by combining radionuclide ²¹⁰Pb¹³⁷Cs dating with magnetic susceptibility chronostratigraphy of sediment cores. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal variations of the organic carbon burial rate (OCBR) over the past century were investigated. The OCBR of Lake Qinghai has increased significantly since the 1990s in association with warm-humid climates, increased nutrient supply and, enhanced land-use changes. The spatial distributions of OCBR were insignificant during the 1900s-1960s and 1960s-1990s and then shifted to a pattern of high values occurring in the southwestern lake areas during the post-1990s period. The spatial distribution of OCBR was mainly determined by sediment mass accumulation rate, primary production, and potential mineralization. The average OCBR in the all sediment cores showed no correlation with water depth (12-30 m) and was within one standard deviation of the whole-lake average value for most cores. These results suggest that the average OCBR of a sediment core in a relatively flat lakebed can generally represent the whole-basin level of Lake Qinghai. The average OCBR was 22.5 ± 5.5 g m^-2 yr^-1, which is close to those values reported previously for lakes of boreal forest and taiga but significantly higher than those reported for tundra lakes. Our findings highlight that the remote lakes on the Tibetan Plateau have great carbon sequestration potential in sediments and may act as a significant natural carbon sink.

Linking the formation of varves in a eutrophic temperate lake to meteorological conditions and water column dynamics

Despite varved sediments being widely used for paleolimnological studies, little information is available about how climate and meteorological signals are recorded in varves at sub-seasonal to annual scale. We investigate links between meteorological and limnological conditions and their influence on biochemical varve formation and preservation of sub-seasonal climate signals in the sediments. Our study site is postglacial Lake Żabińskie located in NE Poland, in which thick and complex varved sediments have been studied for the last decade. These sediments provide an excellent material for studying the influence of short-term weather conditions on geological records. For this, we use an almost decade-long (2012-2019) series of observational data (meteorological conditions, physicochemical water parameters, and modern sedimentation observations) to understand varve formation processes. Then we compare these results with a high-resolution biogeochemical proxy dataset based on μXRF and hyperspectral imaging (HSI) measurements of a varved sediment core spanning the same period. Here we show direct links between the meteorological and limnological conditions and varve formation processes. This is particularly the case for air temperature which governs calcite laminae formation and primary production. We further show that calcite grain size is influenced by lake mixing intensity resulting from the wind activity, and that holomixis events lead to the formation of distinct manganese (Mn) peaks in the typically anoxic sediments. Our findings show that high-resolution non-destructive spectroscopy methods applied to complex biochemical varves, in combination with long observational limnological datasets, provide useful information for tracking meteorological and limnological processes in the past.

Complex spatio-temporal structure of the Holocene Thermal Maximum

Inconsistencies between Holocene climate reconstructions and numerical model simulations question the robustness of climate models and proxy temperature records. Climate reconstructions suggest an early-middle Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) followed by gradual cooling, whereas climate models indicate continuous warming. This discrepancy either implies seasonal biases in proxy-based climate reconstructions, or that the climate model sensitivity to forcings and feedbacks needs to be reevaluated. Here, we analyze a global database of Holocene paleotemperature records to investigate the spatiotemporal structure of the HTM. Continental proxy records at mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere portray a “classic” HTM (8–4 ka). In contrast, marine proxy records from the same latitudes reveal an earlier HTM (11–7ka), while a clear temperature anomaly is missing in the tropics. The results indicate a heterogeneous response to climate forcing and highlight the lack of globally synchronous HTM.

Analysis of the largest available database of Holocene temperature time series covering past 12,000 years reveals complex spatio-temporal trends and challenges the paradigm of a globally synchronous Holocene Thermal Maximum.

Tropical volcanoes synchronize eastern Canada with Northern Hemisphere millennial temperature variability

Although global and Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions are coherent with climate model simulations over the last millennium, reconstructed temperatures tend to diverge from simulations at smaller spatial scales. Yet, it remains unclear to what extent these regional peculiarities reflect region-specific internal climate variability or inadequate proxy coverage and quality. Here, we present a high-quality, millennial-long summer temperature reconstruction for northeastern North America, based on maximum latewood density, the most temperature-sensitive tree-ring proxy. Our reconstruction shows that a large majority (31 out of 44) of the coldest extremes can be attributed to explosive volcanic eruptions, with more persistent cooling following large tropical than extratropical events. These forced climate variations synchronize regional summer temperatures with hemispheric reconstructions and simulations at the multidecadal time scale. Our study highlights that tropical volcanism is the major driver of multidecadal temperature variations across spatial scales.

A maximum latewood density based summer temperature reconstruction from eastern Canada shows recent warming is unprecedented over 1246 years, and tropical volcanism synchronizes regional and hemispheric summer temperatures at the multidecadal time scale.

Drivers of Last Millennium Antarctic Climate Evolution in an Ensemble of Community Earth System Model Simulations

Improved understanding of the drivers of climate variability, particularly over the last millennium, and its influence on Antarctic ice melt have important implications for projecting ice sheet resilience in a changing climate. Here, we investigated the variability in Antarctic climate and sea ice extent during the last millennium (850–1850 CE) by comparing paleoenvironmental reconstructions with simulations from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). Atmospheric and oceanic response to external forcing in CESM-LME simulations typically take the form of an Antarctic dipole: cooling over most of Antarctica and warming east of the Antarctic Peninsula. This configuration is also observed in ice core records. Unforced variability and a dipole response to large volcanic eruptions contribute to weaker cooling in the Antarctic than the Arctic, consistent with the absence of a strong volcanic signal in Antarctic ice core records. The ensemble does not support a clear link between the dipole pattern and baseline shifts in the Southern Annular Mode and El Niño-Southern Oscillation proposed by some paleoclimate reconstructions. Our analysis provides a point of comparison for paleoclimate reconstructions and highlights the role of internal climate variability in driving modeled last millennium climate evolution in the Antarctic.

Reviewing the relationship between neoliberal societies and nature: implications of the industrialized dominant social paradigm for a sustainable future

How a society relates to nature is shaped by the dominant social paradigm (DSP): a society's collective view on social, economic, political, and environmental issues. The characteristics of the DSP have important consequences for natural systems and their conservation. Based on a synthesis of academic literature, we provide a new gradient of 12 types of human-nature relationships synthesized from scientific literature, and an analysis of where the DSP of industrialized, and more specifically, neoliberal societies fit on that gradient. We aim to answer how the industrialized DSP relates to nature, i.e., what types of human-nature relationships this DSP incorporates, and what the consequences of these relationships are for nature conservation and a sustainable future. The gradient of human-nature relationships is based on three defining characteristics: (1) a nature-culture divide, (2) core values, and (3) being anthropocentric or ecocentric. We argue that the industrialized DSP includes elements of the anthropocentric relationships of mastery, utilization, detachment, and stewardship. It therefore regards nature and culture as separate, is mainly driven by instrumental values, and drives detachment from and commodification of nature. Consequently, most green initiatives and policies driven by an industrialized and neoliberal DSP are based on economic incentives and economic growth, without recognition of the needs and limits of natural systems. This leads to environmental degradation and social inequality, obstructing the path to a truly sustainable society. To reach a more ecocentric DSP, systemic changes, in addition to individual changes, in the political and economic structures of the industrialized DSP are needed, along with a change in values and approach toward nature, long-term sustainability, and conservation.

Climate History of the Principality of Transylvania during the Maunder Minimum (MM) Years (1645–1715 CE) Reconstructed from German Language Sources

This paper deals with the climate in the former Grand Duchy of Transylvania, now one of the three major geographical provinces of Romania, within the so-called Maunder Minimum (MM) (1645–1715), an astrophysically defined part of the Little Ice Age (LIA), which was characterized by reduced solar activity. The historical data from Transylvania are compared with that from Germany, Austria and Switzerland. This comparison for the period 1645–1715 shows good agreement but also reveals geographic characteristics of the region. For the first time, we present here a comparison between the four geographic areas in text and tabular form. Quotes from mostly German-language sources are reproduced in English translation. The results clearly help to identify regional climatic differences during the MM. Furthermore, we examine for a longer period (1500–1950) the extent to which the climate of Transylvania might have been affected by long-term fluctuations in solar activity, as deduced from isotopic reconstructions from ice cores. This way we compared astrophysical conditions with climatological ones in order to see if any probable relations do indeed show up. This comparison suggests a certain solar influence but the agreement is not very pronounced. Future investigation in a pan-European context is needed to reach reliable statements. Some results are unexpected—such as an unusually small number of severe winters during the last decades of the MM, where extreme cold was restricted to a few years, like the extreme winters 1699/1700 and 1708/1709.

Catastrophic Floods in Large River Basins: Surface Water and Groundwater Interaction under Dynamic Complex Natural Processes–Forecasting and Presentation of Flood Consequences

A unique approach has been developed for explaining and forecasting the processes of flood and/or mudflow (debris) formation and their spread along riverbeds in mountainous areas, caused by flash increases in the water masses involved (considerably increasing in their expected level because of precipitation intensity) due to groundwater contributions. Three-dimensional crack-nets within the confines of unified rivershed basins in mountain massifs are a natural transportation system (as determined by some dynamic external stress factors) for groundwater, owing to hydrostatic/hydrodynamic pressure distribution, varied due to different reasons (e.g., earthquakes). This process reveals a wave nature characterized by signs of obvious self-organization, and can be described via the soliton model in nonlinear hydrodynamics on the surface propagation after a local exit of groundwater as the trigger type. This approach (and related concepts) might result in a more reliable forecasting and early warning system in case of natural water hazards/disasters, taking into account a groundwater-dominant role in some cases.

Progressing towards Global Citizenship and a Sustainable Nation: Pillars of Climate Change Education and Actions

This systematic review article focuses on the elements of climate change that have been used to create climate change awareness and hence inculcate sustainable literacy among secondary school students as well as actions that have been undertaken to nourish students’ global competencies on climate change. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) was adapted for the review of the current research, which utilised two main databases, namely, Scopus and Web of Science. The findings indicate that 35 articles were successfully selected, and were subsequently critically and systematically analysed. The review has successfully formulated three main themes that were commonly used to create climate change awareness among schoolchildren: effects of climate change, factors affecting climate change, and mitigation plans in handling climate change issues. The review has also revealed four major themes and actions that have been used as platforms towards instilling global competencies towards climate actions; indeed, the findings of this systematic review will provide meaningful information, especially to educators as well as decision-makers in developing more effective, efficient, and sustainable strategies that will shape future globally competent citizens in mitigating and adapting climate change issues and problems.

A decade of cold Eurasian winters reconstructed for the early 19th century

Annual-to-decadal variability in northern midlatitude temperature is dominated by the cold season. However, climate field reconstructions are often based on tree rings that represent the growing season. Here we present cold-season (October-to-May average) temperature field reconstructions for the northern midlatitudes, 1701-1905, based on extensive phenological data (freezing and thawing dates of rivers, plant observations). Northern midlatitude land temperatures exceeded the variability range of the 18th and 19th centuries by the 1940s, to which recent warming has added another 1.5 °C. A sequences of cold winters 1808/9-1815/6 can be explained by two volcanic eruptions and unusual atmospheric flow. Weak southwesterlies over Western Europe in early winter caused low Eurasian temperatures, which persisted into spring even though the flow pattern did not. Twentieth century data and model simulations confirm this persistence and point to increased snow cover as a cause, consistent with sparse information on Eurasian snow in the early 19th century.

A cold season climate reconstruction for the northern midlatitudes based on freezing and thawing dates of rivers shows a cold spell 1808/9-1815/6 affecting Eurasia. In addition to two volcanic eruptions, increased snow cover played an important role.

Enhancing crop diversity for food security in the face of climate uncertainty

Global agriculture is dominated by a handful of species that currently supply a huge proportion of our food and feed. It additionally faces the massive challenge of providing food for 10 billion people by 2050, despite increasing environmental deterioration. One way to better plan production in the face of current and continuing climate change is to better understand how our domestication of these crops included their adaptation to environments that were highly distinct from those of their centre of origin. There are many prominent examples of this, including the development of temperate Zea mays (maize) and the alteration of day-length requirements in Solanum tuberosum (potato). Despite the pre-eminence of some 15 crops, more than 50 000 species are edible, with 7000 of these considered semi-cultivated. Opportunities afforded by next-generation sequencing technologies alongside other methods, including metabolomics and high-throughput phenotyping, are starting to contribute to a better characterization of a handful of these species. Moreover, the first examples of de novo domestication have appeared, whereby key target genes are modified in a wild species in order to confer predictable traits of agronomic value. Here, we review the scale of the challenge, drawing extensively on the characterization of past agriculture to suggest informed strategies upon which the breeding of future climate-resilient crops can be based.

The carbon footprint of cataract surgery in a French University Hospital

PURPOSE

To assess the carbon footprint of cataract surgery in a French university hospital.

SETTING

Operating room of Cochin University Hospital, Paris, France.

DESIGN

Single-center component analysis.

METHODS

One day of surgery was used as a reference. Greenhouse gases (GHG) related to patient and staff transportation were calculated based on the distance travelled and the means of transportation used. The annual consumption of energy (heating and electricity) of our building was converted in kg equivalent of carbon dioxide (CO₂eq), and the principle of proportionality was used to calculate what was used for a single cataract procedure. GHG emissions related to the life cycle assessment (LCA) of the equipment used and the sterilization process were calculated.

RESULTS

The LCA of disposable items accounted for 59.49kg (73.32%) of CO₂eq for each procedure. A single procedure generated 2.83±0.10kg of waste. The average CO₂eq produced by the transportation of the patients to and from our center, adjusted for one procedure, was 7.26±6.90kg (8.95%) of CO₂eq. The CO₂eq produced by the sterilization of the phacoemulsifier handpiece was 2.12kg (2.61%). The energy consumption of the building and staff transportation accounted for the remaining CO₂eq emissions, 0.76kg (0.93%) and 0.08kg (0.10%) respectively. Altogether, the carbon footprint of one cataract procedure in our center was 81.13kg CO₂eq - the equivalent of an average car driving 800km.

CONCLUSION

Our data provide a basis to quantify cataract surgery as a source of GHG and suggests that reductions in emissions can be achieved.

Depicting the phenotypic space of the annual plant Diplotaxis acris in hyperarid deserts

The phenotypic space encompasses the assemblage of trait combinations yielding well-suited integrated phenotypes. At the population level, understanding the phenotypic space structure requires the quantification of among- and within-population variations in traits and the correlation pattern among them. Here, we studied the phenotypic space of the annual plant Diplotaxis acris occurring in hyperarid deserts. Given the advance of warming and aridity in vast regions occupied by drylands, D. acris can indicate the successful evolutionary trajectory that many other annual plant species may follow in expanding drylands. To this end, we conducted a greenhouse experiment with 176 D. acris individuals from five Saudi populations to quantify the genetic component of variation in architectural and life history traits. We found low among-population divergence but high among-individual variation in all traits. In addition, all traits showed a high degree of genetic determination in our study experimental conditions. We did not find significant effects of recruitment and fecundity on fitness. Finally, all architectural traits exhibited a strong correlation pattern among them, whereas for life history traits, only higher seed germination implied earlier flowering. Seed weight appeared to be an important trait in D. acris as individuals with heavier seeds tended to advance flowering and have a more vigorous branching pattern, which led to higher fecundity. Population divergence in D. acris might be constrained by the severity of the hyperarid environment, but populations maintain high among-individual genetic variation in all traits. Furthermore, D. acris showed phenotypic integration for architectural traits and, to a lesser extent, for life history traits. Overall, we hypothesize that D. acris may be fine-tuned to its demanding extreme environments. Evolutionary speaking, annual plants facing increasing warming, aridity, and environmental seasonality might modify their phenotypic spaces toward new phenotypic configurations strongly dominated by correlated architectural traits enhancing fecundity and seed-related traits advancing flowering time.

An ensemble reconstruction of global monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration 1000-1849

This paper describes a global monthly gridded Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) dataset for the period 1000-1849, which can be used as boundary conditions for atmospheric model simulations. The reconstruction is based on existing coarse-resolution annual temperature ensemble reconstructions, which are then augmented with intra-annual and sub-grid scale variability. The intra-annual component of HadISST.2.0 and oceanic indices estimated from the reconstructed annual mean are used to develop grid-based linear regressions in a monthly stratified approach. Similarly, we reconstruct SIC using analog resampling of HadISST.2.0 SIC (1941-2000), for both hemispheres. Analogs are pooled in four seasons, comprising of 3-months each. The best analogs are selected based on the correlation between each member of the reconstructed SST and its target. For the period 1780 to 1849, We assimilate historical observations of SST and night-time marine air temperature from the ICOADS dataset into our reconstruction using an offline Ensemble Kalman Filter approach. The resulting dataset is physically consistent with information from models, proxies, and observations.

Effects of global warming on species with temperature-dependent sex determination: Bridging the gap between empirical research and management

Global warming could threaten over 400 species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) worldwide, including all species of sea turtle. During embryonic development, rising temperatures might lead to the overproduction of one sex and, in turn, could bias populations' sex ratios to an extent that threatens their persistence. If climate change predictions are correct, and biased sex ratios reduce population viability, species with TSD may go rapidly extinct unless adaptive mechanisms, whether behavioural, physiological or molecular, exist to buffer these temperature-driven effects. Here, we summarize the discovery of the TSD phenomenon and its still elusive evolutionary significance. We then review the molecular pathways underpinning TSD in model species, along with the hormonal mechanisms that interact with temperatures to determine an individual's sex. To illustrate evolutionary mechanisms that can affect sex determination, we focus on sea turtle biology, discussing both the adaptive potential of this threatened TSD taxon, and the risks associated with conservation mismanagement.

Beyond the hockey stick: Climate lessons from the Common Era

I review the significant developments, current challenges, and prospective future directions in the subfield of paleoclimatology of the Common Era since the publication of the now iconic “hockey stick” curve by the author and collaborators more than two decades ago, with a focus on how paleoclimate information can inform our understanding of the impact of human-caused climate change.

More than two decades ago, my coauthors, Raymond Bradley and Malcolm Hughes, and I published the now iconic “hockey stick” curve. It was a simple graph, derived from large-scale networks of diverse climate proxy (“multiproxy”) data such as tree rings, ice cores, corals, and lake sediments, that captured the unprecedented nature of the warming taking place today. It became a focal point in the debate over human-caused climate change and what to do about it. Yet, the apparent simplicity of the hockey stick curve betrays the dynamicism and complexity of the climate history of past centuries and how it can inform our understanding of human-caused climate change and its impacts. In this article, I discuss the lessons we can learn from studying paleoclimate records and climate model simulations of the “Common Era,” the period of the past two millennia during which the “signal” of human-caused warming has risen dramatically from the background of natural variability.

High- and low-latitude forcings drive Atacama Desert rainfall variations over the past 16,000 years

Late Quaternary precipitation dynamics in the central Andes have been linked to both high- and low-latitude atmospheric teleconnections. We use present-day relationships between fecal pellet diameters from ashy chinchilla rats (Abrocoma cinerea) and mean annual rainfall to reconstruct the timing and magnitude of pluvials (wet episodes) spanning the past 16,000 years in the Atacama Desert based on 81 ¹⁴C-dated A. cinerea paleomiddens. A transient climate simulation shows that pluvials identified at 15.9 to 14.8, 13.0 to 8.6, and 8.1 to 7.6 ka B.P. can be linked to North Atlantic (high-latitude) forcing (e.g., Heinrich Stadial 1, Younger Dryas, and Bond cold events). Holocene pluvials at 5.0 to 4.6, 3.2 to 2.1, and 1.4 to 0.7 ka B.P. are not simulated, implying low-latitude internal variability forcing (i.e., ENSO regime shifts). These results help constrain future central Andean hydroclimatic variability and hold promise for reconstructing past climates from rodent middens in desert ecosystems worldwide.

Convergence of climate-driven hurricanes and COVID-19: The impact of 2020 hurricanes Eta and Iota on Nicaragua

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was notable for a record-setting 30 named storms while, contemporaneously, the COVID-19 pandemic was circumnavigating the globe. The active spread of COVID-19 complicated disaster preparedness and response actions to safeguard coastal and island populations from hurricane hazards. Major hurricanes Eta and Iota, the most powerful storms of the 2020 Atlantic season, made November landfalls just two weeks apart, both coming ashore along the Miskito Coast in Nicaragua's North Caribbean Coast Autonomous Region. Eta and Iota bore the hallmarks of climate-driven storms, including rapid intensification, high peak wind speeds, and decelerating forward motion prior to landfall. Hurricane warning systems, combined with timely evacuation and sheltering procedures, minimized loss of life during hurricane impact. Yet these protective actions potentially elevated risks for COVID-19 transmission for citizens sharing congregate shelters during the storms and for survivors who were displaced post-impact due to severe damage to their homes and communities. International border closures and travel restrictions that were in force to slow the spread of COVID-19 diminished the scope, timeliness, and effectiveness of the humanitarian response for survivors of Eta and Iota. Taken together, the extreme impacts from hurricanes Eta and Iota, compounded by the ubiquitous threat of COVID-19 transmission, and the impediments to international humanitarian response associated with movement restrictions during the pandemic, acted to exacerbate harms to population health for the citizens of Nicaragua.

Transcriptome and translatome changes in germinated pollen under heat stress uncover roles of transporter genes involved in pollen tube growth

Plant reproduction is one key biological process that is very sensitive to heat stress and, as a result, enhanced global warming becomes a serious threat to agriculture. In this work, we have studied the effects of heat on germinated pollen of Arabidopsis thaliana both at the transcriptional and translational level. We have used a high-resolution ribosome profiling technology to provide a comprehensive study of the transcriptome and the translatome of germinated pollen at permissive and restrictive temperatures. We have found significant down-regulation of key membrane transporters required for pollen tube growth by heat, thus uncovering heat-sensitive targets. A subset of the heat-repressed transporters showed coordinated up-regulation with canonical heat-shock genes at permissive conditions. We also found specific regulations at the translational level and we have uncovered the presence of ribosomes on sequences annotated as non-coding. Our results demonstrate that heat impacts mostly on membrane transporters thus explaining the deleterious effects of heat stress on pollen growth. The specific regulations at the translational level and the presence of ribosomes on non-coding RNAs highlights novel regulatory aspects on plant fertilization.

Transcriptome and translatome changes in germinated pollen under heat stress uncover roles of transporter genes involved in pollen tube growth

Plant reproduction is one key biological process that is very sensitive to heat stress and, as a result, enhanced global warming becomes a serious threat to agriculture. In this work, we have studied the effects of heat on germinated pollen of Arabidopsis thaliana both at the transcriptional and translational level. We have used a high-resolution ribosome profiling technology to provide a comprehensive study of the transcriptome and the translatome of germinated pollen at permissive and restrictive temperatures. We have found significant down-regulation of key membrane transporters required for pollen tube growth by heat, thus uncovering heat-sensitive targets. A subset of the heat-repressed transporters showed coordinated up-regulation with canonical heat-shock genes at permissive conditions. We also found specific regulations at the translational level and we have uncovered the presence of ribosomes on sequences annotated as non-coding. Our results demonstrate that heat impacts mostly on membrane transporters thus explaining the deleterious effects of heat stress on pollen growth. The specific regulations at the translational level and the presence of ribosomes on non-coding RNAs highlights novel regulatory aspects on plant fertilization.

Climate Variability in Central Europe during the Last 2500 Years Reconstructed from Four High-Resolution Multi-Proxy Speleothem Records

The Late Holocene was characterized by several centennial-scale climate oscillations including the Roman Warm Period, the Dark Ages Cold Period, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. The detection and investigation of such climate anomalies requires paleoclimate archives with an accurate chronology as well as a high temporal resolution. Here, we present 230Th/U-dated high-resolution multi-proxy records (δ13C, δ18O and trace elements) for the last 2500 years of four speleothems from Bunker Cave and the Herbstlabyrinth cave system in Germany. The multi-proxy data of all four speleothems show evidence of two warm and two cold phases during the last 2500 years, which coincide with the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period, as well as the Dark Ages Cold Period and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During these four cold and warm periods, the δ18O and δ13C records of all four speleothems and the Mg concentration of the speleothems Bu4 (Bunker Cave) and TV1 (Herbstlabyrinth cave system) show common features and are thus interpreted to be related to past climate variability. Comparison with other paleoclimate records suggests a strong influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation at the two caves sites, which is reflected by warm and humid conditions during the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period, and cold and dry climate during the Dark Ages Cold period and the Little Ice Age. The Mg records of speleothems Bu1 (Bunker Cave) and NG01 (Herbstlabyrinth) as well as the inconsistent patterns of Sr, Ba and P suggests that the processes controlling the abundance of these trace elements are dominated by site-specific effects rather than being related to supra-regional climate variability.

Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality-of rising system-wide turbulence-calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations.

Common Era sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast

Sea-level budgets account for the contributions of processes driving sea-level change, but are predominantly focused on global-mean sea level and limited to the 20th and 21st centuries. Here we estimate site-specific sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast during the Common Era (0-2000 CE) by separating relative sea-level (RSL) records into process-related signals on different spatial scales. Regional-scale, temporally linear processes driven by glacial isostatic adjustment dominate RSL change and exhibit a spatial gradient, with fastest rates of rise in southern New Jersey (1.6 ± 0.02 mm yr-1). Regional and local, temporally non-linear processes, such as ocean/atmosphere dynamics and groundwater withdrawal, contributed between -0.3 and 0.4 mm yr-1 over centennial timescales. The most significant change in the budgets is the increasing influence of the common global signal due to ice melt and thermal expansion since 1800 CE, which became a dominant contributor to RSL with a 20th century rate of 1.3 ± 0.1 mm yr-1.

Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses to climate change

A large scholarship currently holds that before the onset of anthropogenic global warming, natural climatic changes long provoked subsistence crises and, occasionally, civilizational collapses among human societies. This scholarship, which we term the 'history of climate and society' (HCS), is pursued by researchers from a wide range of disciplines, including archaeologists, economists, geneticists, geographers, historians, linguists and palaeoclimatologists. We argue that, despite the wide interest in HCS, the field suffers from numerous biases, and often does not account for the local effects and spatiotemporal heterogeneity of past climate changes or the challenges of interpreting historical sources. Here we propose an interdisciplinary framework for uncovering climate-society interactions that emphasizes the mechanics by which climate change has influenced human history, and the uncertainties inherent in discerning that influence across different spatiotemporal scales. Although we acknowledge that climate change has sometimes had destructive effects on past societies, the application of our framework to numerous case studies uncovers five pathways by which populations survived-and often thrived-in the face of climatic pressures.

Quantitative estimation of sea surface temperature increases resulting from the thermal discharge of coastal power plants in China

The operation of coastal nuclear power plants and thermal power plants (CNATPPs) can cause regional sea surface temperature (SST) increases. To assess their effects on coastal ecosystems, the scope and extent of their impacts must be understood. We aimed to quantitatively assess the SST increases caused by thermal discharge under climate warming by comparing SSTs between control and test groups and among different offshore buffer zones based on daily MODIS SST data from 2002 to 2017. The results showed that (1) a good correlation occurred between the CNATPP installed capacity and SST increase in the 0-2 km offshore waters; (2) the SST increase caused by thermal discharge was the largest in summer and the smallest in winter; and (3) the effect of thermal discharge occurred within 2 km offshore when the installed capacity exceeded 2000 MW and extended to 5 km when it reaches more than 4000 MW.

Climate Change along the Silk Road and Its Influence on Scythian Cultural Expansion and Rise of the Mongol Empire

Climate change and cultural exchange both influenced cultural development along the continental Silk Road during the late Holocene, but climate change and its influence on nomadic civilizations during that time has yet to be systematically assessed. In this study, we analyzed records of climate change along the Silk Road covering key periods in the late Holocene, based on multiproxies from various archives including lake sediments, shorelines/beach ridges, peatlands, ice cores, tree rings, aeolian sediments, moraines, and historical documents. Combined with archaeological data, we assessed the influence of climate on development and expansion of representative pastoral nomadism. Our results show that the most notable climate changes in Central Asia were characterized by decreasing temperature, expanding glaciers, increasing precipitation, and increasing humidity during transitions from the Sub-Boreal to Sub-Atlantic Period (ca. 9–8th century BC) and from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age (ca. 13–14th century AD). The two periods coincided with Scythian Cultural expansion across the steppe landscape of Central Asia and rise of the Mongol Empire, respectively. These temporal coincidences are interpreted as causally related, where temperature fall and glacial advance may have forced the pastoral nomadism to southward migration. Coeval wetness and southward migration of steppe landscape in Central Asia were beneficial for these cultural expansions, which spanned the Eurasian arid and semi-arid zone westward. Therefore, during the historical period when productivity was underdeveloped, although expansions of pastoral nomadism were closely related to internal social structures, climate change was possibly the most critical controlling factor for sustainability development and collapse.

Pleistocene climate fluctuations drove demographic history of African golden wolves (Canis lupaster)

Pleistocene climate change impacted entire ecosystems throughout the world. In the northern hemisphere, the distribution of Arctic species expanded during glacial periods, while more temperate and mesic species contracted into climatic refugia, where isolation drove genetic divergence. Cycles of local cooling and warming in the Sahara region of northern Africa caused repeated contractions and expansions of savannah-like environments which connected mesic species isolated in refugia during interglacial times, possibly driving population expansions and contractions; divergence and geneflow in the associated fauna. Here, we use whole genome sequences of African golden wolves (Canis lupaster), a generalist mesopredator with a wide distribution in northern Africa to estimate their demographic history and past episodes of geneflow. We detect a correlation between divergence times and cycles of increased aridity-associated Pleistocene glacial cycles. A complex demographic history with responses to local climate change in different lineages was found, including a relict lineage north of the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco that has been isolated for more than 18,000 years, possibly a distinct ecotype.

Control Scheme of a Bidirectional Inductive Power Transfer System for Electric Vehicles Integrated into the Grid

Inductive power transfer (IPT) systems have become a very effective technology when charging the batteries of electric vehicles (EVs), with numerous research works devoted to this field in recent years. In the battery charging process, the EV consumes energy from the grid, and this concept is called Grid-to-Vehicle (G2V). Nevertheless, the EV can also be used to inject part of the energy stored in the battery into the grid, according to the so-called Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) scheme. This bidirectional feature can be applied to a better development of distributed generation systems, thus improving the integration of EVs into the grid (including IPT-powered EVs). Over the past few years, some works have begun to pay attention to bidirectional IPT systems applied to EVs, focusing on aspects such as the compensation topology, the design of the magnetic coupler or the power electronic configuration. Nevertheless, the design of the control system has not been extensively studied. This paper is focused on the design of a control system applied to a bidirectional IPT charger, which can operate in both the G2V and V2G modes. The procedure design of the control system is thoroughly explained and classical control techniques are applied to tailor the control scheme. One of the advantages of the proposed control scheme is the robustness when there is a mismatch between the coupling factor used in the model and the real value. Moreover, the control system can be used to limit the peak value of the primary side current when this value increases, thus protecting the IPT system. Simulation results obtained with PSCADTM/EMTDCTM show the good performance of the overall system when working in both G2V and V2G modes, while experimental results validate the control system behavior in the G2V mode.

[A review of the state of the climate crisis in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic]

The atmospheric concentration of well-mixed greenhouse gases has drastically increased since 1850. The prime cause for this increase is anthropogenic activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels. As a consequence of the changing atmospheric composition, we observe a net positive radiative forcing, which manifests in global warming. The global mean surface temperature has increased since the preindustrial by about 1.0 °C. Under the assumption of continued greenhouse gas emissions, climate models project a temperature increase between 3.7 °C and 4.8 °C until 2100 (compared to the 1850-1900 mean). The assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change detail the catastrophic consequences of global warming of such extent for both ecosystems and mankind. As a consequence, the Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to below 2 °C, ideally 1.5 °C, when compared to the preindustrial. To achieve this goal, fast and ambitious emission controls are required, reaching net zero emission by 2050 at the latest. Examining the global greenhouse gas emissions of recent decades, it becomes obvious how far away we are at present from reaching this goal. Also, the currently determined national contributions for emission reduction do not suffice to meet the 1.5 °C target. Thus, it is of uttermost importance to raise the global ambition in climate protection. The 1.5 °C target can still be reached, however, the time to set the required measures will expire within this decade.

Recent atmospheric drying in Siberia is not unprecedented over the last 1,500 years

Newly developed millennial δ¹³C larch tree-ring chronology from Siberia allows reconstruction of summer (July) vapor pressure deficit (VPD) changes in a temperature-limited environment. VPD increased recently, but does not yet exceed the maximum values reconstructed during the Medieval Warm Anomaly. The most humid conditions in the Siberian North were recorded in the Early Medieval Period and during the Little Ice Age. Increasing VPD under elevated air temperature affects the hydrology of these sensitive ecosystems by greater evapotranspiration rates. Further VPD increases will significantly affect Siberian forests most likely leading to drought and forest mortality even under additional access of thawed permafrost water. Adaptation strategies are needed for Siberian forest ecosystems to protect them in a warming world.

Preparing Adolescents for the Uncertain Future: Concepts, Tools and Strategies for Teaching Anthropogenic Environmental Change

Humankind is increasingly being challenged by anthropogenic environmental changes and society needs to be better equipped with knowledge, skills and values to adapt to these changes. This poses new challenges for school education. We propose a framework towards future-oriented education by addressing three issues: a) How can the school curriculum be reframed to take account of anthropogenic environmental changes? b) What difficulties do students encounter when learning about these changes? c) What learning tools and pedagogical strategies are best suited to effectively and efficiently teach about environmental changes? An example is provided, whereby secondary school students engage with the topic of deforestation using geospatial technology. This study informs curriculum makers and instructors in providing education that enhances adolescents’ understanding of the uncertain world and increases their ability to be proactive, rather than merely responding to change.

Cenozoic topography, monsoons and biodiversity conservation within the Tibetan Region: An evolving story

The biodiversity of the Himalaya, Hengduan Mountains and Tibet, here collectively termed the Tibetan Region, is exceptional in a global context. To contextualize and understand the origins of this biotic richness, and its conservation value, we examine recent fossil finds and review progress in understanding the orogeny of the Tibetan Region. We examine the deep-time origins of monsoons affecting Asia, climate variation over different timescales, and the establishment of environmental niche heterogeneity linked to topographic development. The origins of the modern biodiversity were established in the Eocene, concurrent with the formation of pronounced topographic relief across the Tibetan Region. High (>4 km) mountains to the north and south of what is now the Tibetan Plateau bounded a Paleogene central lowland (<2.5 km) hosting moist subtropical vegetation influenced by an intensifying monsoon. In mid Miocene times, before the Himalaya reached their current elevation, sediment infilling and compressional tectonics raised the floor of the central valley to above 3000 m, but central Tibet was still moist enough, and low enough, to host a warm temperate angiosperm-dominated woodland. After 15 Ma, global cooling, the further rise of central Tibet, and the rain shadow cast by the growing Himalaya, progressively led to more open, herb-rich vegetation as the modern high plateau formed with its cool, dry climate. In the moist monsoonal Hengduan Mountains, high and spatially extensive since the Eocene but subsequently deeply dissected by river incision, Neogene cooling depressed the tree line, compressed altitudinal zonation, and created strong environmental heterogeneity. This served as a cradle for the then newly-evolving alpine biota and favoured diversity within more thermophilic vegetation at lower elevations. This diversity has survived through a combination of minimal Quaternary glaciation, and complex relief-related environmental niche heterogeneity. The great antiquity and diversity of the Tibetan Region biota argues for its conservation, and the importance of that biota is demonstrated through our insights into its long temporal gestation provided by fossil archives and information written in surviving genomes. These data sources are worthy of conservation in their own right, but for the living biotic inventory we need to ask what it is we want to conserve. Is it 1) individual taxa for their intrinsic properties, 2) their services in functioning ecosystems, or 3) their capacity to generate future new biodiversity? If 2 or 3 are our goal then landscape conservation at scale is required, and not just seed banks or botanical/zoological gardens.

Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach

An extensive new multi-proxy database of paleo-temperature time series (Temperature 12k) enables a more robust analysis of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and associated uncertainties than was previously available. We applied five different statistical methods to reconstruct the GMST of the past 12,000 years (Holocene). Each method used different approaches to averaging the globally distributed time series and to characterizing various sources of uncertainty, including proxy temperature, chronology and methodological choices. The results were aggregated to generate a multi-method ensemble of plausible GMST and latitudinal-zone temperature reconstructions with a realistic range of uncertainties. The warmest 200-year-long interval took place around 6500 years ago when GMST was 0.7 °C (0.3, 1.8) warmer than the 19th Century (median, 5th, 95th percentiles). Following the Holocene global thermal maximum, GMST cooled at an average rate -0.08 °C per 1000 years (-0.24, -0.05). The multi-method ensembles and the code used to generate them highlight the utility of the Temperature 12k database, and they are now available for future use by studies aimed at understanding Holocene evolution of the Earth system.

Persistent warm Mediterranean surface waters during the Roman period

Reconstruction of last millennia Sea Surface Temperature (SST) evolution is challenging due to the difficulty retrieving good resolution marine records and to the several uncertainties in the available proxy tools. In this regard, the Roman Period (1 CE to 500 CE) was particularly relevant in the socio-cultural development of the Mediterranean region while its climatic characteristics remain uncertain. Here we present a new SST reconstruction from the Sicily Channel based in Mg/Ca ratios measured on the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber. This new record is framed in the context of other previously published Mediterranean SST records from the Alboran Sea, Minorca Basin and Aegean Sea and also compared to a north Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. The most solid image that emerges of this trans-Mediterranean comparison is the persistent regional occurrence of a distinct warm phase during the Roman Period. This record comparison consistently shows the Roman as the warmest period of the last 2 kyr, about 2 °C warmer than average values for the late centuries for the Sicily and Western Mediterranean regions. After the Roman Period a general cooling trend developed in the region with several minor oscillations. We hypothesis the potential link between this Roman Climatic Optimum and the expansion and subsequent decline of the Roman Empire.

Earth and field observations underpin metapopulation dynamics in complex landscapes: Near-term study on carabids

Understanding risks to biodiversity requires predictions of the spatial distribution of species adapting to changing ecosystems and, to that end, Earth observations integrating field surveys prove essential as they provide key numbers for assessing landscape-wide biodiversity scenarios. Here, we develop, and apply to a relevant case study, a method suited to merge Earth/field observations with spatially explicit stochastic metapopulation models to study the near-term ecological dynamics of target species in complex terrains. Our framework incorporates the use of species distribution models for a reasoned estimation of the initial presence of the target species and accounts for imperfect and incomplete detection of the species presence in the study area. It also uses a metapopulation fitness function derived from Earth observation data subsuming the ecological niche of the target species. This framework is applied to contrast occupancy of two species of carabids (Pterostichus flavofemoratus, Carabus depressus) observed in the context of a large ecological monitoring program carried out within the Gran Paradiso National Park (GPNP, Italy). Results suggest that the proposed framework may indeed exploit the hallmarks of spatially explicit ecological approaches and of remote Earth observations. The model reproduces well the observed in situ data. Moreover, it projects in the near term the two species' presence both in space and in time, highlighting the features of the metapopulation dynamics of colonization and extinction, and their expected trends within verifiable timeframes.

Range-Expansion in Processionary Moths and Biological Control

Global climate change is resulting in a wide range of biotic responses, including changes in diel activity and seasonal phenology patterns, range shifts polewards in each hemisphere and/or to higher elevations, and altered intensity and frequency of interactions between species in ecosystems. Oak (Thaumetopoea processionea) and pine (T. pityocampa) processionary moths (hereafter OPM and PPM, respectively) are thermophilic species that are native to central and southern Europe. The larvae of both species are gregarious and produce large silken 'nests' that they use to congregate when not feeding. During outbreaks, processionary caterpillars are capable of stripping foliage from their food plants (oak and pine trees), generating considerable economic damage. Moreover, the third to last instar caterpillars of both species produce copious hairs as a means of defence against natural enemies, including both vertebrate and invertebrate predators, and parasitoids. These hairs contain the toxin thaumetopoein that causes strong allergic reactions when it comes into contact with human skin or other membranes. In response to a warming climate, PPM is expanding its range northwards, while OPM outbreaks are increasing in frequency and intensity, particularly in northern Germany, the Netherlands, and southern U.K., where it was either absent or rare previously. Here, we discuss how warming and escape from co-evolved natural enemies has benefitted both species, and suggest possible strategies for biological control.

Climate Change according to Ecuadorian academics–Perceptions versus facts

Climate change has become one of the most important topics in each country’s government agendas. The current effects demand quicker actions in order to decrease the speed at which the global warming and climate is changing, which are commonly seen in global agreements to reduce pollution. However, the main changes to face and mitigate such phenomena depends on each country´s decision and not on global agreements as the causes are continent-wide although the effects and magnitudes may be local. One of the key components for an effective adaption and mitigation is the role that the population have over national decisions. For this reason, the level of awareness and knowledge about what is occurring in their surroundings vital, thus the importance of a correct information broadcast and education. For the aforementioned reasons, the current study compares the recent perception of a well-educated Ecuadorean community regarding the climate change worldwide and in Ecuador with the scientific evidence and historical facts, and how it affects its vulnerability to the climate change effects.

Late Holocene Glacial Fluctuations of Schiaparelli Glacier at Monte Sarmiento Massif, Tierra del Fuego (54°24′S)

The Magallanes–Tierra del Fuego region, Southern Patagonia (53–56°S) features a plethora of fjords and remote and isolated islands, and hosts several thousand glaciers. The number of investigated glaciers with respect to the multiple Neoglacial advances is based on a few individual studies and is still fragmentary, which complicates the interpretation of the glacial dynamics in the southernmost part of America. Schiaparelli Glacier (54°24′S, 70°50′W), located at the western side of the Cordillera Darwin, was selected for tree-ring-based and radiocarbon dating of the glacial deposits. One focus of the study was to address to the potential dating uncertainties that arise by the use of Nothofagus spp. as a pioneer species. A robust analysis of the age–height relationship, missing the pith of the tree (pith offset), and site-specific ecesis time revealed a total uncertainty value of ±59 years. Three adjacent terminal moraines were identified, which increasingly tapered towards the glacier, with oldest deposition dates of 1749 ± 5 CE, 1789 ± 5 CE, and 1867 ± 5 CE. Radiocarbon dates of trunks incorporated within the terminal moraine system indicate at least three phases of cumulative glacial activity within the last 2300 years that coincide with the Neoglacial phases of the Southern Patagonian Icefield and adjacent mountain glaciers. The sub-recent trunks revealed the first evidence of a Neoglacial advance between ~600 BCE and 100 CE, which so far has not been substantiated in the Magallanes–Tierra del Fuego region.