Projection of American dustiness in the late 21st century due to climate change

Dust storms and cardiorespiratory emergency department visits in three Southwestern United States: application of a monitoring-based exposure metric

Climate change is projected to increase the risk of dust storms, particularly in subtropical dryland, including the southwestern US. Research on dust storm's health impacts in the US is limited and hindered by challenges in dust storm identification. This study assesses the potential link between dust storms and cardiorespiratory emergency department (ED) visits in the southwestern US. We acquired data for 2005-2016 from eight IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments) sites in Arizona, California, and Utah. We applied a validated algorithm to identify dust storm days at each site. We acquired patient-level ED visit data from state agencies and ascertained visits for respiratory, cardiovascular, and cause-specific subgroups among patients residing in ZIP codes within 50 km of an IMPROVE site. Using a case-crossover design, we estimated short-term associations of ED visits and dust storms, controlling for temporally varying covariates. During 2005-2016, 40 dust storm days occurred at the eight IMPROVE sites. Mean PM10 and PM2.5 levels were three to six times greater on dust storm days compared to non-dust storm days. Over the study period, there were 2 524 259 respiratory and 2 805 925 cardiovascular ED visits. At lags of 1, 2, and 3 days after a dust storm, we observed 3.7% (95% CI: 1.0%, 7.6%), 4.9% (95% CI: 1.1%, 8.9%), and 5.0% (95% CI: 1.3%, 8.9%) elevated odds of respiratory ED visits compared to non-dust storm days. Estimated associations of dust storm days and cardiovascular disease ED visits were largely consistent with the null. Using a monitoring-based exposure metric, we observed associations among dust storms and respiratory ED visits. The results add to growing evidence of the health threat posed by dust storms. The dust storm metric was limited by lack of daily data; future research should consider information from satellite and numerical models to enhance dust storm characterization.

Evaluating Data Product Exposure Metrics for Use in Epidemiologic Studies of Dust Storms

Dust storms are increasing in frequency and correlate with adverse health outcomes but remain understudied in the United States (U.S.), partially due to the limited spatio-temporal coverage, resolution, and accuracy of current data sets. In this work, dust-related metrics from four public areal data products were compared to a monitor-based "gold standard" dust data set. The data products included the National Weather Service (NWS) storm event database, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications-Version 2, the EPA's Air QUAlity TimE Series (EQUATES) Project using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ), and the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service global reanalysis product. California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona, which account for most dust storms reported in the U.S., were examined. Dichotomous and continuous metrics based on reported dust storms, particulate matter concentrations (PM10 and PM2.5), and aerosol-type variables were extracted or derived from the data products. Associations between these metrics and a validated dust storm detection method utilizing Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments monitors were estimated via quasi-binomial regression. In general, metrics from CAMS yielded the strongest associations with the "gold standard," followed by the NWS storm database metric. Dust aerosol (0.9-20 μm) mixing ratio, vertically integrated mass of dust aerosol (9-20 μm), and dust aerosol optical depth at 550 nm from CAMS generated the highest standardized odds ratios among all metrics. Future work will apply machine-learning methods to the best-performing metrics to create a public dust storm database suitable for long-term epidemiologic studies.

Desert dust intrusions and their incidence on airborne biological content. Review and case study in the Iberian Peninsula

Desert dust intrusions cause the transport of airborne particulate matter from natural sources, with important consequences for climate regulation, biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and dynamics, human health, and socio-economic activities. Some effects of desert intrusions are reinforced or aggravated by the bioaerosol content of the air during these episodes. The influence of desert intrusions on airborne bioaerosol content has been very little studied from a scientific point of view. In this study, a systematic review of scientific literature during 1970-2021 was carried out following the standard protocol Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). After this literature review, only 6% of the articles on airborne transport from desert areas published in the last 50 years are in some way associated with airborne pollen, and of these, only a small proportion focus on the study of pollen-related parameters. The Iberian Peninsula is affected by Saharan intrusions due to its proximity to the African continent and is seeing an increasing trend the number of intrusion events. There is a close relationship among the conditions favouring the occurrence of intrusion episodes, the transport of particulate matter, and the transport of bioaerosols such as pollen grains, spores, or bacteria. The lack of linearity in this relationship and the different seasonal patterns in the occurrence of intrusion events and the pollen season of most plants hinders the study of the correspondence between both phenomena. It is therefore important to analyse the proportion of pollen that comes from regional sources and the proportion that travels over long distances, and the atmospheric conditions that cause greater pollen emission during dust episodes. Current advances in aerobiological techniques make it possible to identify bioaerosols such as pollen and spores that serve as indicators of long-distance transport from remote areas belonging to other bioclimatic and biogeographical units. A greater incidence of desert intrusion episodes may pose a challenge for both traditional systems and for the calibration and correct validation of automatic aerobiological monitoring methods.

Landscape Topography and Regional Drought Alters Dust Microbiomes in the Sierra Nevada of California

Dust provides an ecologically significant input of nutrients, especially in slowly eroding ecosystems where chemical weathering intensity limits nutrient inputs from underlying bedrock. In addition to nutrient inputs, incoming dust is a vector for dispersing dust-associated microorganisms. While little is known about dust-microbial dispersal, dust deposits may have transformative effects on ecosystems far from where the dust was emitted. Using molecular analyses, we examined spatiotemporal variation in incoming dust microbiomes along an elevational gradient within the Sierra Nevada of California. We sampled throughout two dry seasons and found that dust microbiomes differed by elevation across two summer dry seasons (2014 and 2015), which corresponded to competing droughts in dust source areas. Dust microbial taxa richness decreased with elevation and was inversely proportional to dust heterogeneity. Likewise, dust phosphorus content increased with elevation. At lower elevations, early season dust microbiomes were more diverse than those found later in the year. The relative abundances of microbial groups shifted during the summer dry season. Furthermore, mutualistic fungal diversity increased with elevation, which may have corresponded with the biogeography of their plant hosts. Although dust fungal pathogen diversity was equivalent across elevations, elevation and sampling month interactions for the relative abundance, diversity, and richness of fungal pathogens suggest that these pathogens differed temporally across elevations, with potential implications for humans and wildlife. This study shows that landscape topography and droughts in source locations may alter the composition and diversity of ecologically relevant dust-associated microorganisms.

Evaluation of Machine-Learning Models for Predicting Aeolian Dust: A Case Study over the Southwestern USA

Aeolian dust has widespread consequences on health, the environment, and the hydrology over a region. This study investigated the performance of various machine-learning (ML) models including Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests (RF), Bayesian Regularized Neural Networks (BRNN), and Cubist (Cu) in predicting dust emissions over the Southwestern United States (US). Six meteorological and climatic variables (precipitation, air temperature, wind speed, ENSO, PDO, and NAO) were used to predict dust emissions. The correlation (r) and root mean square error (RMSE) for fine dust vary from 0.67 to 0.80, and 0.40 to 0.52 µg/m3, respectively. For coarse dust, the r and RMSE vary from 0.69 to 0.73, and 2.01 to 2.34 µg/m3, respectively. The non-linear ML models outperformed linear regression for both fine and coarse dust. ML models underestimated high concentrations of dust. Machine-learning models better predict fine dust than coarse dust over the Southwestern USA. Air temperature was found to be the most important predictor, followed by precipitation, for both fine- and coarse- dust-prediction over the region. These results improve our understanding of the predictability of Southwestern US dust.

Saharan Dust and Childhood Respiratory Symptoms in Benin

Mineral dust is one of the largest natural constituents of coarse particulate matter (PM10). Most of these dust emissions originate from northern Africa, and several hundred tera-grams of dust are emitted annually from this region. Previous evidence has linked dust PM10 to adverse respiratory outcomes in children. However, most of these studies have been from high-income countries (HICs) or examined dust from other regions of the world, mainly Asia. Evidence from low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs) in Africa is scarce. Respiratory infections are one of the leading causes of under-five mortality across the globe. However, there is a poignant disparity in studies examining these outcomes in children in the region where most dust is emitted. This study linked remotely sensed satellite data to a nationally representative survey to examine acute exposure to dust in children living in Benin using a time-stratified case-crossover analysis. We identified acute effects of exposure to dust and increased risk of cough in children under five. The effect of increased risk is strongest within two weeks of exposure and dissipates by four weeks. Children living in rural areas and households with lower income had a greater risk of adverse respiratory outcomes when exposed to dust. We could elucidate the specific period and conditions of increased risk for respiratory problems in children living in Benin.

Materials, Actuators, and Sensors for Soft Bioinspired Robots

Biological systems can perform complex tasks with high compliance levels. This makes them a great source of inspiration for soft robotics. Indeed, the union of these fields has brought about bioinspired soft robotics, with hundreds of publications on novel research each year. This review aims to survey fundamental advances in bioinspired soft actuators and sensors with a focus on the progress between 2017 and 2020, providing a primer for the materials used in their design.

Drought and land use/land cover impact on dust sources in Southern Great Plains and Chihuahuan Desert of the U.S.: Inferring anthropogenic effect

Exploring the effects of drought and land use/land cover (LULC) on aeolian dust emission is important to enhance dust models to account for anthropogenic land surface change. Hitherto, there has been no systematic effort to quantitatively estimate associations between LULC and drought with the number of dust point sources as a surrogate for emission on both local and global levels. Previously, we created a dataset of dust emission point sources in the southwestern United States (U.S.) during the years 2001-2016, including a period of extreme drought. However, that work did not investigate the effects of drought on the detected dust point sources. Here, we used that dataset to test the hypothesis that there is a statistically significant association between drought level and LULC that may contribute to the number of dust point sources in the Southern Great Plains and Chihuahuan Desert regions of the U.S. The spatio-temporal analysis showed that the geographic mean center for all the dust points, as well as the majority of the annual geographic mean centers between 2001 and 2016, is located in the Southern High Plains. Areas suffering from severe to exceptional drought tend to attract the annual geographic mean center of dust points. The chi-square analysis results showed a significant association between land cover type (as defined in the National Land Cover Database) and drought level with the number of dust point sources (χ² (6) = 45.54, р < 0.001), thus supporting the proposed hypothesis. Results from this study indicate that human activities in dust-prone regions have clear potential to worsen the negative impacts of drought by changing LULC and increasing erodibility in multiple ways. This study paves the way for future efforts that can utilize more data and conduct more robust statistical analysis of the drought-LULC-dust linkage on both regional and global scales.

Drought severity and all-cause mortality rates among adults in the United States: 1968-2014

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the effect of drought on all-cause mortality, especially in higher income countries such as the United States. As the frequency and severity of droughts are likely to increase, understanding the connections between drought and mortality becomes increasingly important.

METHODS

Our exposure variable was an annual cumulative drought severity score based on the 1-month, county-level Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. The outcome variables of demographic subgroup-specific all-cause mortality count data per year were obtained from the National Vital Statistics System. Any counts below 10 deaths were censored in that demographic group per county. We modeled county-stratum-year mortality using interval-censored negative binomial regression with county-level random intercepts, for each combined age-race-sex stratum either with or without further stratification by climate regions. Fixed effects meta-regression was used to test the associations between age, race, sex, and region with the drought-mortality regression coefficients. Predictive margins were then calculated from the meta-regression model to estimate larger subgroup (e.g., 'race' or 'sex') associations of drought with mortality.

RESULTS

Most of the results were null for associations between drought severity and mortality, across joint strata of race, age, sex and region, but incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for 17 subgroups were significant after accounting for the multiple testing; ten were < 1 indicating a possible protective effect of drought on mortality for that particular subpopulation. The meta-regression indicated heterogeneity in the association of drought with mortality according to race, climate region, and age, but not by sex. Marginal means of the estimated log-incidence rate ratios differed significantly from zero for age groups 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 and 55-64; for the white race group; and for the South, West and Southwest regions, in the analysis that included wet county-years. The margin of the meta-regression model suggested a slightly negative, but not statistically significant, association of drought with same-year mortality in the overall population.

CONCLUSIONS

There were significant, heterogeneous-direction associations in subpopulation-stratified models, after controlling for multiple comparisons, suggesting that the impacts of drought on mortality may not be monolithic across the United States. Meta-regression identified systematic differences in the associations of drought severity with all-cause mortality according to climate region, race, and age. These findings suggest there may be important contextual differences in the effects of drought severity on mortality, motivating further work focused on local mechanisms. We speculate that some of the estimated negative associations of drought severity with same-year mortality could be consistent with either a protective effect of drought on total mortality in the same year, or with a delayed health effect of drought beyond the same year. Further research is needed to clarify associations of drought with more specific causes of death and with sublethal health outcomes, for specific subpopulations, and considering lagged effects occurring beyond the same year as the drought.

Characterizing the Role of Wind and Dust in Traffic Accidents in California

Wind is a common ground transportation hazard. In arid regions, wind-blown dust is an added risk. Here, we analyzed the relationship between accidents and wind speed, dust events to study how they may have contributed to vehicular accidents in California. The California Highway Patrol reports information about weather conditions that potentially contributed to traffic accidents, including a code for wind but not for reduced visibility due to dust. For the three counties that contain the major dust source regions in California (the Mojave Desert and the Imperial Valley), we found greater daily maximum wind speed for days with accidents coded for wind compared to all days with accidents. The percentage of people injured in accidents attributed for weather other than wind and coded for wind were the same; however, the percentage of people who died in wind-related accidents was about double the deaths in accidents caused by weather other than wind. At ground meteorological stations closest to accidents, we found lower median minimum visibility for days with wind-related accidents compared to all days with accidents. Across the region, wind speed recorded at ground meteorological stations increased the probability of high satellite-derived dust optical depth values. Over the period of 2006 to 2016, the correlation between daily minimum visibility and daily maximum satellite-estimated dust optical depth was negative. Our analysis of the correlation between dust and accidents shows that with increased wind storm and dust-event frequency in the future, the risk of traffic incidents due to wind and dust could increase.

Variability and Trends in Dust Storm Frequency on Decadal Timescales: Climatic Drivers and Human Impacts

Dust storms present numerous hazards to human society and are particularly significant to people living in the Dust Belt which stretches from the Sahara across the Middle East to northeast Asia. This paper presents a review of dust storm variability and trends in frequency on decadal timescales from three Dust Belt settlements with long-term (>50 years) meteorological records: Nouakchott, Mauritania; Zabol, Iran, and Minqin, China. The inhabitants of each of these settlements have experienced a decline in dust storms in recent decades, since the late 1980s at Nouakchott, since 2004 at Zabol, and since the late 1970s at Minqin. The roles of climatic variables and human activities are assessed in each case, as drivers of periods of high dust storm frequency and subsequent declines in dust emissions. Both climatic and human variables have been important but overall the balance of research conclusions indicates natural processes (precipitation totals, wind strength) have had greater impact than human action, in the latter case both in the form of mismanagement (abandoned farmland, water management schemes) and attempts to reduce wind erosion (afforestation projects). Understanding the drivers of change in dust storm dynamics at the local scale is increasingly important for efforts to mitigate dust storm hazards as climate change projections suggest that the global dryland area is likely to expand in the twenty-first century, along with an associated increase in the risk of drought and dust emissions.

Seasonal Variation of Water Quality in Unregulated Domestic Wells

In the United States (U.S.), up to 14% of the population depend on private wells as their primary drinking water source. The U.S. government does not regulate contaminants in private wells. The goals of this study were to investigate the quality of drinking water from unregulated private wells within one mile (1.6 kilometers) of an effluent-dominated river in the arid Southwest, determine differences in contaminant levels between wet and dry seasons, and identify contributions from human sources by specifically measuring man-made organic contaminants (perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctane sulfate (PFOS), and sucralose). Samples were collected during two dry seasons and two wet seasons over the course of two years and analyzed for microbial (Escherichia coli), inorganic (arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury, nitrate), and synthetic organic (PFOA, PFOS, and sucralose) contaminants. Arsenic, nitrate, and Escherichia coli concentrations exceeded their respective regulatory levels of 0.01 mg/L, 10 mg/L, and 1 colony forming unit (CFU)/100 mL, respectively. The measured concentrations of PFOA and PFOS exceeded the respective Public Health Advisory level. Arsenic, PFOA, PFOS, and sucralose were significantly higher during the dry seasons, whereas E. coli was higher during the wet seasons. While some contaminants were correlated (e.g., As and Hg ρ = 0.87; PFOA and PFOS ρ = 0.45), the lack of correlation between different contaminant types indicates that they may arise from different sources. Multi-faceted interventions are needed to reduce exposure to drinking water above health-based guidelines.

The disappearing Salton Sea: A critical reflection on the emerging environmental threat of disappearing saline lakes and potential impacts on children's health

Changing weather patterns, droughts and competing water demands are dramatically altering the landscape and creating conditions conducive to the production of wind-blown dust and dust storms. In California, such factors are leading to the rapid shrinking of the Salton Sea, a 345 mile² land-locked "sea" situated near the southeastern rural border region known as the Imperial Valley. The region is anticipated to experience a dramatic increase in wind-blown dust and existing studies suggest a significant impact on the health and quality of life for nearby residents of this predominantly low-income, Mexican-American community. The discussion calls attention to the public health dimensions of the Salton Sea crisis. We know little about the possible long-term health effects of exposure to mobilized lakebed sediments or the numerous toxic contaminants that may become respirable on entrained particles. We draw on existing epidemiological literature of other known sources of wind-blown dust, such as desert dust storms, and related health effects to begin to understand the potential public health impact of wind-blown dust exposure. The increased production of wind-blown dust and environmental exposures to such non-combustion related sources of particulate matter are a growing health threat, due in part to drought coupled with increasing pressures on limited water resources. Recent population-based studies have linked dust storms with cardiovascular mortality, asthma hospitalization and decrease in pulmonary function in both adults and children. A growing number of studies provide evidence of the acute health effects of wind-blown dust exposures among children, which with repeated insults have the potential to influence respiratory health over time. The shrinking of the Salton Sea illustrates a public health and environmental justice crisis that requires action and attention to protect the health and well-being of local communities.

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

The U.S. Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. We quantify the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public health using methods consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework. We first demonstrate that U.S. Southwest fine (PM2.5) and coarse (PM2.5-10) dust levels are strongly sensitive to variability in the 2-month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index across southwestern North America. We then estimate potential changes in dust levels through 2099 by applying the observed sensitivities to downscaled meteorological output projected by six climate models following an intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenario. By 2080-2099 under RCP8.5 relative to 1986-2005 in the U.S. Southwest: (1) Fine dust levels could increase by 57%, and fine dust-attributable all-cause mortality and hospitalizations could increase by 230% and 360%, respectively; (2) coarse dust levels could increase by 38%, and coarse dust-attributable cardiovascular mortality and asthma emergency department visits could increase by 210% and 88%, respectively; (3) climate-driven changes in dust concentrations can account for 34-47% of these health impacts, with the rest due to increases in population and baseline incidence rates; and (4) economic damages of the health impacts could total $47 billion per year additional to the 1986-2005 value of $13 billion per year. Compared to national-scale climate impacts projected for other U.S. sectors using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework, dust-related mortality ranks fourth behind extreme temperature-related mortality, labor productivity decline, and coastal property loss.

Strengthened scientific support for the Endangerment Finding for atmospheric greenhouse gases

We assess scientific evidence that has emerged since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s 2009 Endangerment Finding for six well-mixed greenhouse gases and find that this new evidence lends increased support to the conclusion that these gases pose a danger to public health and welfare. Newly available evidence about a wide range of observed and projected impacts strengthens the association between the risk of some of these impacts and anthropogenic climate change, indicates that some impacts or combinations of impacts have the potential to be more severe than previously understood, and identifies substantial risk of additional impacts through processes and pathways not considered in the Endangerment Finding.

Blowing dust and highway safety in the southwestern United States: Characteristics of dust emission "hotspots" and management implications

Despite the widespread media attention of chain-reaction traffic incidents and property damage caused by windblown dust in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world, very few studies have provided in-depth analysis on this issue. Remote sensing and field observations reveal that wind erosion in the southwestern U.S. typically occurs in localized source areas, characterized as "hotspots", while most of the landscape is not eroding. In this study, we identified the spatial and temporal distribution patterns of hotspots that may contribute dust blowing onto highways in the southwestern U.S. We further classified the hotspots for the potential of blowing dust production based upon field observations and wind erosion modeling. Results of land use and land cover show that shrubland, grassland, and cropland accounted for 42%, 31%, and 21% of the overall study area, respectively. However, of the 620 total hotspots identified, 164 (26%), 141 (22%), and 234 (38%) are located on shrubland, grassland, and cropland, respectively. Barren land represented 0.9% of the land area but 8% of the dust hotspots. While a majority of these hotspots are located close to highways, we focused on 55 of them, which are located <1km to adjacent highways and accessible via non-private roads. Field investigations and laboratory analysis showed that soils at these hotspot sites are dominated by sand and silt particles with threshold shear velocities ranging from 0.17-0.78m s^-1, largely depending on the land use of the hotspot sites. Dust emission modeling showed that 13 hotspot sites could produce annual emissions >3.79kg m^-2, yielding highly hazardous dust emissions to ground transportation with visibility <200m. Results of location, timing, and magnitude of the dust production at the hotspots are critical information for highway authorities to make informed and timely management decisions when wind events strike.