Insular threat associations within taxa worldwide

Conservation priorities for functionally unique and specialized terrestrial vertebrates threatened by biological invasions

Invasive non-native species (INS) continue to pose a significant threat to biodiversity, including native population declines, which can ultimately disrupt ecosystem processes. Although there is growing evidence of the impacts of INS on functional diversity, most of the existing approaches to prioritization of species for conservation still focus on taxonomic diversity, neglecting the ecological role of species. We developed the functionally unique, specialized, and endangered by invasive non-native species (FUSE INS) score to fill this gap by combining functional irreplaceability (i.e., uniqueness and specialization) of species with their extinction risk due to INS. We calculated this score for 3642 terrestrial vertebrates exposed to INS by assessing how INS affected them based on the IUCN Red List and by evaluating their specialization and uniqueness in a multidimensional functional space. Thirty-eight percent of native species were both at high extinction risk because of INS and functionally unique and specialized, making them priority species for INS impact mitigation. Priority species of amphibians concentrated in Central America and Madagascar and of lizards in the Caribbean islands, northern Australia, New Zealand, and New Caledonia. Priority bird and mammal species were more widespread (birds, mostly in coastal areas, on Pacific islands, and in northern India and New Zealand; mammals, in southwestern Europe, Central Africa, East Africa, Southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and eastern Australia). Seventy-eight species were also highly irreplaceable but not yet threatened by INS, suggesting that preventive conservation measures may help protect these species. For the 50 birds of the highest priority, 64% required conservation actions to mitigate the INS threat. The FUSE INS score can be used to help prioritize indigenous species representing large amounts of functional diversity. Incorporating functional diversity into the conservation prioritization of species and associated areas is key to accurately reducing and mitigating the impacts of INS on native biodiversity.

Insectivorous bat activity dataset across different land-use types in the Islands of São Tomé and Príncipe, Central West Africa

Background

São Tomé and Príncipe oceanic islands, in Central West Africa, are characterised by exceptional levels of endemism. Since human colonisation in the mid-15th century, São Tomé and Príncipe have lost 74% and 67% of their native habitat, respectively. Today, these islands are mainly covered by remaining old-growth forests, secondary regrowth forests, shaded plantations (mostly of cocoa), oil palm plantations (in the case of São Tomé), small-scale agricultural areas and urban areas. Yet, little is known about how species on these islands are coping with land-use changes. Island ecosystems are particularly important for bats, with about 25% of the world's bat species being entirely restricted to island systems. São Tomé and Príncipe Islands comprise six and four native insectivorous bats, respectively. Two species, Chaerephontomensis and Macronycteristhomensis, are island-endemics in São Tomé; Pseudoromiciaprincipis is an island-endemic in Príncipe; and Miniopterusnewtoni is endemic from both São Tomé and Príncipe. Here, we present a dataset comprising a comprehensive compilation of occurrence records derived from acoustic sampling of insectivorous bats across the predominant land-use types of both the São Tomé and Príncipe Islands. In each sampling site, standardised surveys consisted of deploying one Audio Moth device that recorded for 1 minute every 5 minutes over a 48-hour period. We identified a total of 19,437 bat-passes across the 115 sites surveyed in São Tomé Island and 17,837 bat-passes across the 50 sites surveyed in Príncipe Island.

New information

Based on a sampling effort of 1,584 hours of recordings manually processed to identify all the contained bat passes, this dataset, publicly available on GBIF, provides comprehensive information on the activity of insectivorous bats across two endemic-rich oceanic islands in the Gulf of Guinea. For each bat pass identified, we report the identified species, geographic coordinates, land-use type, altitude, date and time. This is the first public dataset providing detailed information on species-level habitat use for insectivorous bats on oceanic islands in Africa.

Non-native ants are breaking down biogeographic boundaries and homogenizing community assemblages

As geographic distance increases, species assemblages become more distinct, defining global biogeographic realms with abrupt biogeographic boundaries. Yet, it remains largely unknown to what extent these realms may change because of human-mediated dispersal of species. Focusing on the distributions of 309 non-native ant species, we show that historical biogeographic patterns have already broken down into tropical versus non-tropical regions. Importantly, we demonstrate that these profound changes are not limited to the distribution patterns of non-native ants but fundamentally alter biogeographic boundaries of all ant biodiversity (13,774 species). In total, 52% of ant assemblages have become more similar, supporting a global trend of biotic homogenization. Strikingly, this trend was strongest on islands and in the tropics, which harbor some of the most vulnerable ecosystems. Overall, we show that the pervasive anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity override biogeographic patterns resulting from millions of years of evolution, and disproportionally affect particular regions.

Explaining the primate extinction crisis: predictors of extinction risk and active threats

Explaining why some species are disproportionately impacted by the extinction crisis is of critical importance for conservation biology as a science and for proactively protecting species that are likely to become threatened in the future. Using the most current data on threat status, population trends, and threat types for 446 primate species, we advance previous research on the determinants of extinction risk by including a wider array of phenotypic traits as predictors, filling gaps in these trait data using multiple imputation, and investigating the mechanisms that connect organismal traits to extinction risk. Our Bayesian phylogenetically controlled analyses reveal that insular species exhibit higher threat status, while those that are more omnivorous and live in larger groups have lower threat status. The same traits are not linked to risk when repeating our analyses with older IUCN data, which may suggest that the traits influencing species risk are changing as anthropogenic effects continue to transform natural landscapes. We also show that non-insular, larger-bodied, and arboreal species are more susceptible to key threats responsible for primate population declines. Collectively, these results provide new insights to the determinants of primate extinction and identify the mechanisms (i.e. threats) that link traits to extinction risk.

The land and sea routes to 2030: a call for greater attention on all small islands in global environmental policy

Islands have unique vulnerabilities to biodiversity loss and climate change. Current Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement are insufficient to avoid the irreversible loss of critical island ecosystems. Existing research, policies, and finance also do not sufficiently address small islands' social-environmental challenges. For instance, the new Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) mentions islands in the invasive species management target. This focus is important, as islands are at high risk to biological invasions; however, this is the only GBF target that mentions islands. There are threats of equal or greater urgency to small islands, including coastal hazards and overexploitation. Ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves are crucial for biodiversity, coastal protection, and human livelihoods, yet are unaddressed in the GBF. While research and global policy, including targeted financial flows, have a strong focus on Small Island Developing States (SIDS), the situation of other small islands has been largely overlooked. Here, through a review of policy developments and examples from islands in the Philippines and Chile, we urge that conservation and climate change policies place greater emphasis on acknowledging the diversity of small islands and their unique governance challenges, extending the focus beyond SIDS. Moving forward, global policy and research should include the recognition of small islands as metacommunities linked by interacting species and social-ecological systems to emphasize their connectivity rather than their isolation. Coalition-building and knowledge-sharing, particularly with local, Indigenous and traditional knowledge-holders from small islands, is needed to meet global goals on biodiversity and sustainable development by 2030.

Bat responses to climate change: a systematic review

Understanding how species respond to climate change is key to informing vulnerability assessments and designing effective conservation strategies, yet research efforts on wildlife responses to climate change fail to deliver a representative overview due to inherent biases. Bats are a species-rich, globally distributed group of organisms that are thought to be particularly sensitive to the effects of climate change because of their high surface-to-volume ratios and low reproductive rates. We systematically reviewed the literature on bat responses to climate change to provide an overview of the current state of knowledge, identify research gaps and biases and highlight future research needs. We found that studies are geographically biased towards Europe, North America and Australia, and temperate and Mediterranean biomes, thus missing a substantial proportion of bat diversity and thermal responses. Less than half of the published studies provide concrete evidence for bat responses to climate change. For over a third of studied bat species, response evidence is only based on predictive species distribution models. Consequently, the most frequently reported responses involve range shifts (57% of species) and changes in patterns of species diversity (26%). Bats showed a variety of responses, including both positive (e.g. range expansion and population increase) and negative responses (range contraction and population decrease), although responses to extreme events were always negative or neutral. Spatial responses varied in their outcome and across families, with almost all taxonomic groups featuring both range expansions and contractions, while demographic responses were strongly biased towards negative outcomes, particularly among Pteropodidae and Molossidae. The commonly used correlative modelling approaches can be applied to many species, but do not provide mechanistic insight into behavioural, physiological, phenological or genetic responses. There was a paucity of experimental studies (26%), and only a small proportion of the 396 bat species covered in the examined studies were studied using long-term and/or experimental approaches (11%), even though they are more informative about the effects of climate change. We emphasise the need for more empirical studies to unravel the multifaceted nature of bats' responses to climate change and the need for standardised study designs that will enable synthesis and meta-analysis of the literature. Finally, we stress the importance of overcoming geographic and taxonomic disparities through strengthening research capacity in the Global South to provide a more comprehensive view of terrestrial biodiversity responses to climate change.

Application of genetic and Spatially Explicit Capture-Recapture analyses to design adaptive feral cat control in a large inhabited island

Faunas of oceanic islands have a high proportion of endemic species which contribute to the uniqueness of island communities. Island species are particularly naïve and vulnerable to alien predators, such as cats (Felis catus). On large, inhabited islands, where the complete eradication of feral cat populations is not considered feasible, control represents the best management option to lower their detrimental effects on native fauna. The first objective of our study was to investigate population genetics of feral cats of Réunion Island. The second objective was to understand the space use of feral cats established near the breeding colonies of the two endemic and endangered seabirds of Réunion Island, the Barau’s Petrel (Pterodroma baraui) and the Mascarene Petrel (Pseudobulweria aterrima). We evaluated genetic diversity, population structure and gene flow amongst six groups of feral cats located at a maximum of 10 km from known petrel colonies. We also analysed the behaviour and space use of one of these feral cat groups using camera-trap data and Spatially Explicit Capture-Recapture (SECR) models. Genetic analyses revealed that feral cats were structured in three genetic clusters explained mostly by the island topography. Two clusters were observed at five sampled sites, suggesting high connectivity amongst these sites. The last cluster was found in only one site, suggesting high isolation. This site was a remote mountain area located in the vicinity of one of the main Barau’s Petrel colonies. The behavioural study was conducted on this isolated feral cat population. Mark recapture analysis suggested that feral cats were present at low density and had large home ranges, which is probably explained by reduced food availability. Finally, we make several recommendations for refining feral cat management programmes on inhabited islands.

Ranking threats to biodiversity and why it doesn't matter

Several rankings of the relative importance of global threats to biodiversity have been proposed. This Comment argues that relative rankings of biodiversity threats have little application for conservation and might even mislead policymaking.

Threats to Neglected Biodiversity: Conservation Success Requires More Than Charisma

Our planet is home to an incredible array of species; however, relatively few studies have compared how anthropogenic threats impact taxonomic groups over time. Our objective was to identify temporal trends in threats facing the four most speciose phyla protected by the United States Endangered Species Act: angiosperms, arthropods, chordates, and mollusks. We determined presence or absence of threats for each species in these phyla by reviewing Final Rule listing decisions. For each phylum, we evaluated whether there was a linear, quadratic, or pseudo-threshold association between year of listing and the presence of 24 anthropogenic threats. We identified temporal trends for 80% of the 96 threat-phylum combinations. We classified threats as topmost (probability of being included in a species' listing decision peaking at ≥ 0.81) and escalating (probability of being included in a listing decision increasing by ≥ 0.81 between a species' first and most recent years of listing). Angiosperms, arthropods, and mollusks each had more topmost and escalating threats than chordates. Percentages of topmost threats were 42.9% (N = 21) for mollusks, 36.4% (N = 22) for angiosperms, and 33.3% (N = 21) for arthropods. Percentages of escalating threats were 22.7% (N = 22) for angiosperms and 14.3% (N = 21) for arthropods and mollusks. In contrast, percentages of topmost and escalating threats were only 4.2% (N = 24) for chordates, this one threat being climate change. Our research suggests potential conservation successes; some overutilization and pollution threats showed only gradually increasing or declining trends for certain phyla. We identified authorized take impacting angiosperms as the sole threat-phylum combination for which the threat had been consistently decreasing since the phylum's first year of listing. Conversely, species interactions, environmental stochasticity, and demographic stochasticity threats have seen drastic increases across all phyla; we suggest conservation efforts focus on these areas of increasing concern. We also recommend that resources be allocated to phyla with numerous topmost and escalating threats, not just to chordates.

Role of microhabitat and temporal activity in facilitating coexistence of endemic carnivores on the California Channel Islands

Most extinctions worldwide have occurred on islands, primarily due to interactions with exotic species, but rarely due to interactions among endemic species. This potential exists on two of the California Channel Islands, Santa Cruz and Santa Rosa, as endemic island spotted skunks (Spilogale gracilis amphiala) appear to have rapidly declined to rarity, possibly due to interference competition with endemic island foxes (Urocyon littoralis). Niche partitioning is expected in response to interference competition; hence, it is surprising that skunks and foxes show extensive overlap in macrohabitat use and circadian activity. However, the role of microhabitat associations and fine-scale temporal activity in facilitating coexistence of the two species has not been explored. We evaluated microhabitat associations of island spotted skunks and island foxes across both islands using data from live traps and wildlife cameras collected during 2015–2017, and we analyzed fine-scale temporal activity using camera data from 2016 and 2017. On both islands, skunks had a positive response to ground-level cover provided by rugged topography or woody vegetation such as shrubs or trees, whereas foxes had a weak or negative response, suggesting partitioning of these microhabitat characteristics. Additionally, on both islands the peak in timing of skunk activity offset the peak for foxes, which implies that skunks use fine-scale adjustments in activity to avoid foxes. Past grazing by exotic herbivores likely reduced habitat refuges for skunks; however, as vegetation on both islands recovers, regrowth of shrubs and trees may provide cover that will improve prospects for coexistence of island spotted skunks and island foxes.

Looming extinctions due to invasive species: Irreversible loss of ecological strategy and evolutionary history

Biological invasions are one of the main drivers of biodiversity decline worldwide. However, many associated extinctions are yet to occur, meaning that the ecological debt caused by invasive species could be considerable for biodiversity. We explore extinction scenarios due to invasive species and investigate whether paying off the current extinction debt will shift the global composition of mammals and birds in terms of ecological strategy and evolutionary history. Current studies mostly focus on the number of species potentially at risk due to invasions without taking into account species characteristics in terms of ecological or phylogenetic properties. We found that 11% of phylogenetic diversity worldwide is represented by invasive-threatened species. Furthermore, 14% of worldwide trait diversity is hosted by invasive-threatened mammals and 40% by invasive-threatened birds, with Neotropical and Oceanian realms being primary risk hotspots. Projected extinctions of invasive-threatened species result in a smaller reduction in ecological strategy space and evolutionary history than expected under randomized extinction scenarios. This can be explained by the strong pattern in the clustering of ecological profiles and families impacted by invasive alien species (IAS). However, our results confirm that IAS are likely to cause the selective loss of species with unique evolutionary and ecological profiles. Our results also suggest a global shift in species composition away from those with large body mass, which mostly feed in the lower foraging strata and have an herbivorous diet (mammals). Our findings demonstrate the potential impact of biological invasions on phylogenetic and trait dimensions of diversity, especially in the Oceanian realm. We therefore call for a more systematic integration of all facets of diversity when investigating the consequences of biological invasions in future studies. This would help to establish spatial prioritizations regarding IAS threats worldwide and anticipate the consequences of losing specific ecological profiles in the invaded community.

Characterizing the spatio-temporal threats, conservation hotspots and conservation gaps for the most extinction-prone bird family (Aves: Rallidae)

With thousands of vertebrate species now threatened with extinction, there is an urgent need to understand and mitigate the causes of wildlife collapse. Rails (Aves: Rallidae), being the most extinction-prone bird family globally, and with one-third of extant rail species now threatened or near threatened, are an emphatic case in point. Here, we undertook a global synthesis of the temporal and spatial threat patterns for Rallidae and determined conservation priorities and gaps. We found two key pathways in the threat pattern for rails. One follows the same trajectory as extinct rails, where island endemic and flightless rails are most threatened, mainly due to invasive predators. The second, created by the diversification of anthropogenic activities, involves continental rails, threatened mainly by agriculture, natural system modifications, and residential and commercial development. Indonesia, the USA, the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Cuba were the priority countries identified by our framework incorporating species' uniqueness and the level of endangerment, but also among the countries that lack conservation actions the most. Future efforts should predominantly target improvements in ecosystem protection and management, as well as ongoing research and monitoring. Forecasting the impacts of climate change on island endemic rails will be particularly valuable to protect rails.

Importance of Plants with Extremely Small Populations (PSESPs) in Endemic-Rich Areas, Elements Often Forgotten in Conservation Strategies

The distribution of the threatened fern Ophioglossum vulgatum L., a plant with extremely small populations (PSESPs) in Sardinia, is characterized by small disjunct populations with only a few individuals, and little is known about its status in the wild. To provide information for the conservation of O. vulgatum and with the aim to develop an in situ conservation strategy, we investigated its distribution, population size, and habitat. Field surveys confirmed that the species grows in only five localities. Two representative populations were selected for this study (Funtanamela and Gedili), and in each population, all plants were mapped and monitored monthly from April to August over an 8-year period. During the study, the populations had a very low number of reproductive plants and the populations appeared to be in decline, with the total number of plants per population slightly decreased in Gedili while a sharp reduction was recorded in Funtanamela due to wild boar threat. A fence was built in order to protect the site from further damage, but no noticeable signals of recovery were observed. The most urgent conservation requirement for this species is to preserve the threatened habitat of the remnant populations. Further field surveys and research are also required for an improved understanding of the species’ status.

The insular herpetofauna of Mexico: Composition, conservation, and biogeographic patterns

We compile a Mexican insular herpetofaunal checklist to estimate endemism, conservation status, island threats, net taxonomic turnover among six biogeographic provinces belonging to the Nearctic and Neotropical regions, and the relationships between island area and mainland distance versus species richness. We compile a checklist of insular herpetofaunal through performing a literature and collection review. We define the conservation status according to conservation Mexican law, the Red List of International Union for Conservation of Nature, and Environmental Vulnerability Scores. We determine threat percentages on islands according to the 11 major classes of threats to biodiversity. We estimate the net taxonomic turnover with beta diversity analysis between the Nearctic and Neotropical provinces. The Mexican insular herpetofauna is composed of 18 amphibian species, 204 species with 101 subspecies of reptiles, and 263 taxa in total. Endemism levels are 11.76% in amphibians, 53.57% in reptiles, and 27.91% being insular endemic taxa. Two conservation status systems classify the species at high extinction risk, while the remaining system suggests less concern. However, all systems indicate species lacking assessment. Human activities and exotic alien species are present on 60% of 131 islands. The taxonomic turnover value is high (0.89), with a clear herpetofaunal differentiation between the two biogeographic regions. The species-area and species-mainland distance relationships are positive. Insular herpetofauna faces a high percentage of threats, with the Neotropical provinces more heavily impacted. It is urgent to explore the remaining islands (3,079 islands) and better incorporate insular populations and species in ecological, evolutionary, and systematic studies. In the face of the biodiversity crisis, islands will play a leading role as a model to apply restoration and conservation strategies.

Future climate change vulnerability of endemic island mammals

Despite their high vulnerability, insular ecosystems have been largely ignored in climate change assessments, and when they are investigated, studies tend to focus on exposure to threats instead of vulnerability. The present study examines climate change vulnerability of islands, focusing on endemic mammals and by 2050 (RCPs 6.0 and 8.5), using trait-based and quantitative-vulnerability frameworks that take into account exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Our results suggest that all islands and archipelagos show a certain level of vulnerability to future climate change, that is typically more important in Pacific Ocean ones. Among the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, exposure was rarely the main one and did not explain the pattern of vulnerability. In addition, endemic mammals with long generation lengths and high dietary specializations are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change. Our findings highlight the importance of exploring islands vulnerability to identify the highest climate change impacts and to avoid the extinction of unique biodiversity.

Island ecosystems are notoriously vulnerable to anthropogenic species losses. Here, the authors identify insular hotspots of vulnerability to climate change (under RCPs 6.0 and 8.5) in mammals via a trait-based, quantitative vulnerability framework, finding that exposure to climate change is not a reliable proxy to assess species vulnerability, while sensitivity and adaptive capacity are crucial to understand vulnerability.

Global correlates of terrestrial and marine coverage by protected areas on islands

Many islands are biodiversity hotspots but also extinction epicenters. In addition to strong cultural connections to nature, islanders derive a significant part of their economy and broader wellbeing from this biodiversity. Islands are thus considered as the socio-ecosystems most vulnerable to species and habitat loss. Yet, the extent and key correlates of protected area coverage on islands is still unknown. Here we assess the relative influence of climate, geography, habitat diversity, culture, resource capacity, and human footprint on terrestrial and marine protected area coverage across 2323 inhabited islands globally. We show that, on average, 22% of terrestrial and 13% of marine island areas are under protection status, but that half of all islands have no protected areas. Climate, diversity of languages, human population density and development are strongly associated with differences observed in protected area coverage among islands. Our study suggests that economic development and population growth may critically limit the amount of protection on islands.

Islands have disproportionate importance for biodiversity conservation, yet they may be underrepresented in protected areas. Here the authors assess how climate, geography, habitat diversity, and socio-economic conditions explain terrestrial and marine protected area coverage on inhabited islands and in the surrounding seas globally.

A new method to control error rates in automated species identification with deep learning algorithms

Processing data from surveys using photos or videos remains a major bottleneck in ecology. Deep Learning Algorithms (DLAs) have been increasingly used to automatically identify organisms on images. However, despite recent advances, it remains difficult to control the error rate of such methods. Here, we proposed a new framework to control the error rate of DLAs. More precisely, for each species, a confidence threshold was automatically computed using a training dataset independent from the one used to train the DLAs. These species-specific thresholds were then used to post-process the outputs of the DLAs, assigning classification scores to each class for a given image including a new class called “unsure”. We applied this framework to a study case identifying 20 fish species from 13,232 underwater images on coral reefs. The overall rate of species misclassification decreased from 22% with the raw DLAs to 2.98% after post-processing using the thresholds defined to minimize the risk of misclassification. This new framework has the potential to unclog the bottleneck of information extraction from massive digital data while ensuring a high level of accuracy in biodiversity assessment.

Spatial Characteristics and Temporal Evolution of Chemical and Biological Freshwater Status as Baseline Assessment on the Tropical Island San Cristóbal (Galapagos, Ecuador)

The fragility of geographically isolated islands stresses the necessity of evaluating the current situation, identifying temporal trends and suggesting appropriate conservation measures. To support this, we assessed the freshwater quality of three stream basins on San Cristóbal (Galapagos) for two consecutive years. Abiotic conditions generally complied with existing guidelines, except for the pH in the Cerro Gato basin (<6.5) and orthophosphate concentrations in 2016 (>0.12 mg P L−1). Macroinvertebrate communities were characterized by low family richness (3–11) and were dominated by Atyidae or Chironomidae, thereby causing low diversity (0.33–1.65). Spatial analysis via principal component analysis (PCA) illustrated that abiotic differences between stream basins were mostly related to turbidity, pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), and conductivity. Biotic differences were less clear due to masking by anthropogenic disturbances and dispersal limitations, yet indicated a negative effect of reduced pH and DO on Atyidae presence. In 2017, significantly narrower ranges were found for turbidity, temperature, pH, and diversity (p < 0.01), suggesting a decrease in habitat variability and a need for conservation measures, including mitigating measures related to dam construction for water extraction. As such, further follow-up is highly recommended for the sustainable development and environmental protection of this unique archipelago.

Biotic and abiotic drivers of species loss rate in isolated lakes

Today, anthropogenic impacts are causing a serious crisis for global biodiversity, with rates of extinction increasing at an unprecedented rate. Extinctions typically occur after a certain delay, and understanding the mechanisms causing delays is a key challenge for both fundamental and applied perspectives. Here, we make use of natural experiments, the isolation of lakes by land uplift in Northern Scandinavia, to examine how yearly extinction rates are affected by time since isolation and a range of abiotic and biotic factors. In this aim, we adapted a model of delayed species loss within isolated communities to test the effects of time since isolation, area, pH, depth and the presence/absence of piscivores on extinction rates. As expected, we found that small and/or young lakes experience a higher annual rate of extinctions per species than larger and/or older ones. Compared to previous studies that were conducted for either young (few thousand years ago) or very old (>10,000 years ago) isolates, we demonstrated over a large and continuous temporal scales (50-5,000 years), similar relationship between extinction rates and age. We also show that extinction rates are modified by local environmental factors such as a strong negative effect of increasing pH. Our results urge for the need to consider the time since critical environmental changes occurred when studying extinction rates. In a wider perspective, our study demonstrates the need to consider extinction debts when modelling future effects of climate change, land-use changes or biological invasions on biodiversity.