A Data Mining-based Prognostic Algorithm for NAFLD-related Hepatoma Patients: A Nationwide Study by the Japan Study Group of NAFLD. Sci Rep. 2018;8:10434. [PMID: 29992975 PMCID: PMC6041283 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-28650-0]

The Prognostic Value of Preoperative Serum Markers and Risk Classification in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Complex hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prognostic biomarkers have been reported in various studies. We aimed to establish biomarkers that could predict prognosis, and formulate a simple classification using non-invasive preoperative blood test data.

METHODS

We retrospectively identified 305 patients for a discovery cohort who had undergone HCC-related hepatectomy at four Japanese university hospitals between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2013. Preoperative blood test parameter optimal cut-off values were determined using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Cox uni- and multivariate analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors. Risk classifications were established using classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Validation was performed with 267 patients from three other hospitals.

RESULTS

In multivariate analysis, α-fetoprotein (AFP, p < 0.001), protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II, p = 0.006), and C-reactive protein (CRP, p < 0.001) were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). AFP (p = 0.007), total bilirubin (p = 0.001), and CRP (p = 0.003) were independent recurrent risk factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS). CART analysis results formed OS (CRP, AFP, and albumin) and RFS (PIVKA-II, CRP, and total bilirubin) decision trees, based on machine learning using preoperative serum markers, with three risk classifications. Five-year OS (low risk, 80.0%; moderate risk, 56.3%; high risk, 25.2%; p < 0.001) and RFS (low risk, 43.4%; moderate risk, 30.8%; high risk, 16.6%; p < 0.001) risks differed significantly. These classifications also stratified OS and RFS risk in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

Three simple risk classifications using preoperative non-invasive prognostic factors could predict prognosis.

Machine learning prediction model for post- hepatectomy liver failure in hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter study

Introduction

Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is one of the most serious complications and causes of death in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatectomy. This study aimed to develop a novel machine learning (ML) model based on the light gradient boosting machines (LightGBM) algorithm for predicting PHLF.

Methods

A total of 875 patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy were randomized into a training cohort (n=612), a validation cohort (n=88), and a testing cohort (n=175). Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) was performed to determine the importance of individual variables. By combining these independent risk factors, an ML model for predicting PHLF was established. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and decision curve analyses (DCA) were used to evaluate the accuracy of the ML model and compare it to that of other noninvasive models.

Results

The AUCs of the ML model for predicting PHLF in the training cohort, validation cohort, and testing cohort were 0.944, 0.870, and 0.822, respectively. The ML model had a higher AUC for predicting PHLF than did other non-invasive models. The ML model for predicting PHLF was found to be more valuable than other noninvasive models.

Conclusion

A novel ML model for the prediction of PHLF using common clinical parameters was constructed and validated. The novel ML model performed better than did existing noninvasive models for the prediction of PHLF.

Association between Adverse Events and Prognosis in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab: A Multicenter Retrospective Study

This study aimed to evaluate the correlation between adverse events (AEs) and overall survival (OS) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma treated with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab (atezo/beva). This was a multicenter study in which 130 patients were enrolled. Hypertension and skin disorders had a significant correlation with longer survival (median survival time (MST): not reached vs. 14.3 months and not reached vs. 14.8 months, p = 0.001 and p = 0.047, respectively). In contrast, liver injuries were significantly correlated with shorter survival (MST: 14.7 months vs. not reached, p = 0.036), and the median development time was 21 days. In a logistic regression analysis, fatigue ≥ grade 2, liver injury ≥ grade 3, and modified albumin–bilirubin grade 2b were identified as independent factors for discontinuation due to AEs. The OS in the no discontinuation due to AE group was significantly longer than that in the discontinuation due to AEs group (MST not reached vs. 11.2 months, p = 0.001). We concluded that the development of liver injury was a negative factor for OS and that we should be vigilant in monitoring AE during atezo/beva treatments.

Development of a machine learning model to predict early recurrence for hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection

Background

Early recurrence is common for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after surgical resection, being the leading cause of death. Traditionally, the COX proportional hazard (CPH) models based on linearity assumption have been used to predict early recurrence, but predictive performance is limited. Machine learning models offer a novel methodology and have several advantages over CPH models. Hence, the purpose of this study was to compare random survival forests (RSF) model with CPH models in prediction of early recurrence for HCC patients after curative resection.

Methods

A total of 4,758 patients undergoing curative resection from two medical centers were included. Fifteen features including age, gender, etiology, platelet count, albumin, total bilirubin, AFP, tumor size, tumor number, microvascular invasion, macrovascular invasion, Edmondson-Steiner grade, tumor capsular, satellite nodules and liver cirrhosis were used to construct the RSF model in training cohort. Discrimination, calibration, clinical usefulness and overall performance were assessed and compared with other models.

Results

Five hundred survival trees were used to generate the RFS model. The five highest Variable Importance (VIMP) were tumor size, macrovascular invasion, microvascular invasion, tumor number and AFP. In training, internal and external validation cohort, the C-index of RSF model were 0.725 [standard errors (SE) =0.005], 0.762 (SE =0.011) and 0.747 (SE =0.016), respectively; the Gönen & Heller's K of RSF model were 0.684 (SE =0.005), 0.711 (SE =0.008) and 0.697 (SE =0.014), respectively; the time-dependent AUC (2 years) of RSF model were 0.818 (SE =0.008), 0.823 (SE =0.014) and 0.785 (SE =0.025), respectively. The RSF model outperformed early recurrence after surgery for liver tumor (ERASL) model, Korean model, American Joint Committee on Cancer tumor-node-metastasis (AJCC TNM) stage, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage and Chinese stage. The RSF model is capable of stratifying patients into three different risk groups (low-risk, intermediate-risk, high-risk groups) in the training and two validation cohorts (all P<0.0001). A web-based prediction tool was built to facilitate clinical application (https://recurrenceprediction.shinyapps.io/surgery_predict/).

Conclusions

The RSF model is a reliable tool to predict early recurrence for patients with HCC after curative resection because it exhibited superior performance compared with other models. This novel model will be helpful to guide postoperative follow-up and adjuvant therapy.

NAFLD-driven HCC: Safety and efficacy of current and emerging treatment options

In light of a global rise in obesity and type 2 diabetes, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) represent an increasingly important underlying aetiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). HCCs arising from lipotoxicity-mediated chronic inflammation are characterised by several unique features: in contrast to virally driven HCC, up to 50% of NAFLD-HCC occurs in patients without cirrhosis and annual HCC incidence is comparatively low, complicating current surveillance strategies. On average, patients are older and are more frequently diagnosed at an advanced stage. While locoregional treatments are probably equally effective regardless of HCC aetiology, the picture is less clear for systemic therapy. Tyrosine kinase inhibitors are probably equally effective, while there have been initial signals that immune checkpoint inhibitors may be less effective in NAFLD-HCC than in viral HCC. Current international clinical practice guidelines for HCC do not consider aetiology, as there are insufficient data to draw specific conclusions or to recommend aetiology-specific modifications to the current management of patients with HCC. However, in light of the growing relevance of NAFLD-HCC, future clinical trials should assess whether HCC aetiology - and NAFLD/NASH in particular - influence the safety and efficacy of a given treatment.

Computational intelligence identifies alkaline phosphatase (ALP), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and hemoglobin levels as most predictive survival factors for hepatocellular carcinoma

Liver cancer kills approximately 800 thousand people annually worldwide, and its most common subtype is hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which usually affects people with cirrhosis. Predicting survival of patients with HCC remains an important challenge, especially because technologies needed for this scope are not available in all hospitals. In this context, machine learning applied to medical records can be a fast, low-cost tool to predict survival and detect the most predictive features from health records. In this study, we analyzed medical data of 165 patients with HCC: we employed computational intelligence to predict their survival, and to detect the most relevant clinical factors able to discriminate survived from deceased cases. Afterwards, we compared our data mining results with those obtained through statistical tests and scientific literature findings. Our analysis revealed that blood levels of alkaline-phosphatase (ALP), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and hemoglobin are the most effective prognostic factors in this dataset. We found literature supporting association of these three factors with hepatoma, even though only AFP has been used in a prognostic index. Our results suggest that ALP and hemoglobin can be candidates for future HCC prognostic indexes, and that physicians could focus on ALP, AFP, and hemoglobin when studying HCC records.

Association between Activity and Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor in Patients with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Data-Mining Analysis

Reduction in activity links to the development and progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is known to regulate an activity. We aimed to investigate the association between reduction in activity and BDNF in patients with NAFLD using data-mining analysis. We enrolled 48 NAFLD patients. Patients were classified into reduced (n = 21) or normal activity groups (n = 27) based on the activity score of the Chronic Liver Disease Questionnaire-NAFLD/non-alcoholic steatohepatitis. Circulating BDNF levels were measured using an enzyme-linked immunoassay. Factors associated with reduced activity were analyzed using decision-tree and random forest analyses. A reduction in activity was seen in 43.8% of patients. Hemoglobin A1c and BDNF were identified as negative independent factors for reduced activity (hemoglobin A1c, OR 0.012, p = 0.012; BDNF, OR 0.041, p = 0.039). Decision-tree analysis showed that “BDNF levels ≥ 19.1 ng/mL” was the most important classifier for reduced activity. In random forest analysis, serum BDNF level was the highest-ranked variable for distinguishing between the reduced and normal activity groups (158 valuable importance). Reduced activity was commonly seen in patients with NAFLD. Data-mining analyses revealed that BNDF was the most important independent factor corresponding with the reduction in activity. BDNF may be an important target for the prevention and treatment of NAFLD.

Combination of type IV collagen 7S, albumin concentrations, and platelet count predicts prognosis of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of chronic liver disease and affects approximately 25% of the general global adult population. The prognosis of NAFLD patients with advanced liver fibrosis is known to be poor. It is difficult to assess disease progression in all patients with NAFLD; thus, it is necessary to identify patients who will show poor prognosis.

AIM

To investigate the efficacy of non-invasive biomarkers for predicting disease progression in patients with NAFLD.

METHODS

We investigated biomarkers associated with mortality in patients with NAFLD who visited the Kawasaki Medical School General Medical Center from 1996 to 2018 and underwent liver biopsy and had been followed-up for > 1 year. Cumulative overall mortality and liver-related events during follow-up were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier analysis and compared using log-rank testing. We calculated the odds ratio and performed receiver operating characteristic curve analysis with logistic regression analysis to determine the optimal cut-off value with the highest prognostic ability.

RESULTS

We enrolled 489 patients who were followed-up for a period of 1-22.2 years. In total, 13 patients died (2.7% of total patients enrolled); 7 patients died due to liver-related causes. Poor prognosis was associated with liver fibrosis on histological examination but not with inflammation or steatosis. Blood biomarkers associated with mortality were platelet counts, albumin levels, and type IV collagen 7S levels. The optimal cutoff index for predicting total mortality was a platelet count of 15 × 10⁴/μL, albumin level of 3.5 g/dL, and type IV collagen 7S level of 5 mg/dL. In particular, only one-factor patients with NAFLD presenting with platelet counts ≤ 15 × 10⁴/μL, albumin levels ≤ 3.5 g/dL, or type IV collagen 7S ≥ 5 mg/dL showed 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year survival rates of 99.7%, 98.3%, and 94%, respectively. However, patients with two factors had lower 5-year and 10-year survival rates of 98% and 43%, respectively. Similarly, patients with all three factors showed the lowest 5-year and 10-year survival rates of 53% and 26%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

A combination of the three non-invasive biomarkers is a useful predictor of NAFLD prognosis and can help identify patients with NAFLD who are at a high risk of all-cause mortality.

Non-Obese MAFLD Is Associated with Colorectal Adenoma in Health Check Examinees: A Multicenter Retrospective Study

Colorectal adenoma is linked to metabolic dysfunction. Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) has a precise definition and three subtypes, including non-obese MAFLD. We aimed to investigate the impact of MAFLD on the prevalence of colorectal adenoma by comparing it to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in health check-up examinees. This is a multicenter retrospective study. We enrolled 124 consecutive health check-up examinees who underwent colonoscopy. NAFLD and MAFLD were present in 58 and 63 examinees, respectively. Colorectal adenoma was diagnosed by biopsy. The impact of the MAFLD definition on the prevalence of colorectal adenoma was investigated by logistic regression, decision-tree, and random forest analyses. In logistic regression analysis, MAFLD was identified as the only independent factor associated with the presence of colorectal adenoma (OR 3.191; 95% CI 1.494–7.070; p = 0.003). MAFLD was also identified as the most important classifier for the presence of colorectal adenoma in decision-tree and random forest analyses (29 variable importance value). Among the three subtypes of MAFLD, non-obese MAFLD was the sole independent factor associated with the presence of colorectal adenoma (OR 3.351; 95% CI 1.589–7.262; p ≤ 0.001). Non-obese MAFLD was also the most important classifier for the presence of colorectal adenoma in decision-tree and random forest analyses (31 variable importance value). MAFLD, particularly non-obese MAFLD, is the most important factor associated with the presence of colorectal adenoma rather than NAFLD. Colonoscopy examination should be considered in patients with MAFLD, especially those who are non-obese.

Prevalence of Hepatitis A Immunity and Decision-tree Analysis Among Men Who Have Sex With Men and Are Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Tokyo

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) can be sexually transmitted. However, the level of HAV immunity among patients living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Japan is unknown. Determining the epidemiology of HAV infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) and who are living with HIV is essential for an HAV vaccination program. This study examined HAV immunity in patients living with HIV and applied the decision-tree analysis to explore the factors of immunoglobulin G (IgG)-hepatitis A (HA) antibodies in MSM living with HIV.

METHODS

We examined the presence of IgG-HA antibodies among patients living with HIV from January to December 2017 in The Hospital of The Institute of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo. We recorded each patient's age, sex, mode of HIV transmission, year of HIV diagnosis, HAV vaccine status, history of HAV infection, and history of other infectious diseases. A decision-tree algorithm was used to reveal the factors and profiles most relevant to the anti-HAV prevalence.

RESULTS

Overall, 378 MSM patients living with HIV were examined for IgG-HA antibodies. After excluding 24 patients who had received a HAV vaccine, the data of 354 MSM were analyzed (median age 45 years, interquartile range 39-51 years). Of the 354 patients, 60 (16.9%) were positive for IgG-HA antibodies. The HA positivity rate increased with patients' age, and age (> 63.5 years) was extracted as the most important variable by classification of the decision-tree algorithm.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study, conducted just before the HAV outbreak among MSM in Tokyo, showed that age was the most relevant factor in anti-HAV prevalences. An extensive HAV vaccination program for MSM patients living with HIV is urgently needed, particularly for younger people.

Potential value and impact of data mining and machine learning in clinical diagnostics

Data mining involves the use of mathematical sciences, statistics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning to determine the relationships between variables from a large sample of data. It has previously been shown that data mining can improve the prediction and diagnostic precision of type 2 diabetes mellitus. A few studies have applied machine learning to assess hypertension and metabolic syndrome-related biomarkers, as well as refine the assessment of cardiovascular disease risk. Machine learning methods have also been applied to assess new biomarkers and survival outcomes in patients with renal diseases to predict the development of chronic kidney disease, disease progression, and renal graft survival. In the latter, random forest methods were found to be the best for the prediction of chronic kidney disease. Some studies have investigated the prognosis of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and acute liver failure, as well as therapy response prediction in patients with viral disorders, using decision tree models. Machine learning techniques, such as Sparse High-Order Interaction Model with Rejection Option, have been used for diagnosing Alzheimer's disease. Data mining techniques have also been applied to identify the risk factors for serious mental illness, such as depression and dementia, and help to diagnose and predict the quality of life of such patients. In relation to child health, some studies have determined the best algorithms for predicting obesity and malnutrition. Machine learning has determined the important risk factors for preterm birth and low birth weight. Published studies of patients with cancer and bacterial diseases are limited and should perhaps be addressed more comprehensively in future studies. Herein, we provide an in-depth review of studies in which biochemical biomarker data were analyzed using machine learning methods to assess the risk of several common diseases, in order to summarize the potential applications of data mining methods in clinical diagnosis. Data mining techniques have now been increasingly applied to clinical diagnostics, and they have the potential to support this field.

Artificial intelligence in prediction of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and fibrosis

Artificial intelligence (AI) has become increasingly widespread in our daily lives, including healthcare applications. AI has brought many new insights into better ways we care for our patients with chronic liver disease, including non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and liver fibrosis. There are multiple ways to apply the AI technology on top of the conventional invasive (liver biopsy) and noninvasive (transient elastography, serum biomarkers, or clinical prediction models) approaches. In this review article, we discuss the principles of applying AI on electronic health records, liver biopsy, and liver images. A few common AI approaches include logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and XGBoost for data at a single time stamp, recurrent neural networks for sequential data, and deep neural networks for histology and images.

Association between serum albumin and cognitive dysfunction in hepatic encephalopathy: An exploratory data analysis

Background and Aim

Because covert hepatic encephalopathy (CHE) has been shown to affect the prognosis of cirrhotic patients, early diagnosis of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is a prerequisite for the preservation of patients' quality of life and for prophylaxis of overt HE. The aim of this study was to identify a clinical parameter to predict impairment of cognitive function in cirrhotic patients with early‐stage HE.

Methods

We investigated the data from 172 patients with cirrhotic or idiopathic portosystemic shunt (PSS) in phase II/III trials of rifaximin in Japan. Classification and regression trees (CARTs) were constructed to identify clinical profiles related to cognitive dysfunction as indicated by the prolongation of time required for the Number Connection Test (NCT‐B).

Results

CART analysis detected age 65 years as the variable for the initial split, and serum albumin level was selected as the variable for the second split among patients aged ≤65 years. In 27 cirrhotic patients aged ≤65 years without PSS, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that the optimal albumin level cutoff point was 3.05 g/dL, and the area under the curve was 0.80 for the prolongation of NCT‐B time, which was higher than that of the branched‐chain amino acids‐to‐tyrosine ratio (0.46), the prothrombin time–international normalized ratio (PT‐INR) (0.68), serum ammonia (0.61), and total bilirubin (0.69).

Conclusions

Lower serum albumin level as a clinical biomarker associated with impaired cognitive function may be available as a screening examination for early‐stage HE in cirrhotic patients aged ≤65 years without PSS before undergoing neuropsychological tests.

Hepatocellular carcinoma and other complications of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in Japan: A structured review of published works

AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Japan. As the treatment of viral hepatitis improves, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are rapidly becoming leading causes of HCC in Japan. This structured review aims to characterize the morbidity and mortality of HCC and other malignant and non-malignant complications among Japanese NAFLD and NASH patients.

METHODS

An English and Japanese structured search of published works was undertaken in PubMed, Embase, and Ichushi Web databases, identifying 6553 studies, 34 of which met predefined inclusion criteria.

RESULTS

Hepatocellular carcinoma was the most common incident malignancy among NAFLD/NASH patients, with higher incidence in patients with advanced/severe fibrosis (F3/F4) of 10.5%-20.0%. Although NASH results in a lower HCC cumulative incidence than hepatitis C virus (HCV) (11.3% vs. 30.5%), they have similar impacts on health outcomes, including overall mortality. Among Japanese NASH patients, HCC was found to be the main driver of mortality (40.0% in 2.7 years in NASH-HCC). With longer follow-up, higher mortality rates are observed in F3/4 patients: 25.0% in NASH F3/F4 versus 0.0% in NASH F0/2 over 7.7 years. The NASH-HCC patients also have a higher post-operative mortality than HCV-HCC patients. Additionally, NAFLD/NASH patients had higher rates of cardiovascular disease than non-NAFLD/NASH controls, and slightly higher rates of gastric cancer than HCV patients.

CONCLUSION

Hepatocellular carcinoma is the most common malignancy and cause of death among NAFLD/NASH patients in Japan, with higher mortality observed among those with advanced disease and complications. Early identification and effective treatments are needed.

The Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver clinical practice guidelines for the diagnosis and management of metabolic associated fatty liver disease

Metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is the principal worldwide cause of liver disease and affects nearly a quarter of the global population. The objective of this work was to present the clinical practice guidelines of the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) on MAFLD. The guidelines cover various aspects of MAFLD including its epidemiology, diagnosis, screening, assessment, and treatment. The document is intended for practical use and for setting the stage for advancing clinical practice, knowledge, and research of MAFLD in adults, with specific reference to special groups as necessary. The guidelines also seek to improve patient care and awareness of the disease and assist stakeholders in the decision-making process by providing evidence-based data. The guidelines take into consideration the burden of clinical management for the healthcare sector.

TERT Promoter Mutation in Serum Cell-Free DNA Is a Diagnostic Marker of Primary Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

INTRODUCTION

It remains unclear whether TERT promoter mutation (TERT C228T) in serum cell-free DNA (cfDNA) is useful for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

METHODS

In this retrospective study, we analyzed the relationships between TERT C228T in serum cfDNA and levels of AFP and PIVKAII in 57 Japanese patients with histopathologically confirmed NAFLD background, consisting of 36 patients with HCC and 21 without HCC. We also examined the liver-related survival rate and HCC recurrence rate after the initial treatment for HCC. TERT C228T was detected using a highly sensitive method based on wild-type blocking PCR (detection limit in excess of 0.7% mutant-type DNA).

RESULTS

In all of the 57 patients, multivariate analysis identified TERT C228T positive as significant determinant of primary HCC. In the 36 patients with HCC, the percentage of patients positive for TERT C228T was 63.9%. The percentage of patients positive for TERT C228T with normal AFP and PIVKAII was 35.3%. The positive predictive value and specificity for prediction of BCLC stage 0 or A were both high. In 6 patients, TERT C228T was repeatedly negative during follow-up but became positive at the time of HCC diagnosis. Four patients who underwent HCC surgical resection had well-differentiated solitary HCC measuring <30 mm, and all were TERT C228T positive with normal AFP and PIVKAII. TERT C228T status had no influence on the cumulative liver-related survival rate and HCC recurrence rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results highlight the superiority of TERT C228T in serum cfDNA compared with AFP and PIVKAII in the early diagnosis of primary HCC in NAFLD patients.

Surveillance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is becoming the leading cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), liver-related mortality, and liver transplantation. There is sufficient epidemiological cohort data to recommend the surveillance of patients with NAFLD based upon the incidence of HCC. The American Gastroenterology Association (AGA) expert review published in 2020 recommends that NAFLD patients with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis estimated by non-invasive tests (NITs) consider HCC surveillance. NITs include the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test, FibroScan, and MR elastography. The recommended surveillance modality is abdominal ultrasound (US), which is cost effective and noninvasive with good sensitivity. However, US is limited in obese patients and those with NAFLD. In NAFLD patients with a high likelihood of having an inadequate US, or if an US is attempted but inadequate, CT or MRI may be utilized. The GALAD score, consisting of age, gender, AFP, the lens culinaris-agglutinin-reactive fraction of AFP (AFP-L3), and the protein induced by the absence of vitamin K or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II), can help identify a high risk of HCC in NAFLD patients. Innovative parameters, including a Mac-2 binding protein glycated isomer, type IV collagen 7S, free apoptosis inhibitor of the macrophage, and a combination of single nucleoside polymorphisms, are expected to be established. Considering the large size of the NAFLD population, optimal screening tests must meet several criteria, including high sensitivity, cost effectiveness, and availability.

Clinical Significance of Adverse Events for Patients with Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Lenvatinib: A Multicenter Retrospective Study

We sought to investigate the clinical profile(s) associated with the discontinuation of lenvatinib (LEN) due to severe adverse events (DLSAE) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This retrospective study enrolled 177 patients with HCC treated with LEN. Independent factors associated with DLSAE were advanced age, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2, fatigue grade ≥ 3, and appetite loss ≥ 2. The overall survival (OS) in the group that did not require DLSAE was significantly longer compared to the group that did require DLSAE (median survival time (MST): not reached vs. 12.8 months, p < 0.001). Moreover, advanced age was the most important variable for DLSAE in a decision tree analysis. Hypertension and hand-foot-skin-reaction (HFSR) were also significantly associated with longer survival, and the occurrence of hypertension was the earliest predictor for improved prognosis, while appetite loss and development of grade ≥ 3 fatigue were predictive of a poor prognosis. We concluded that the appearance of hypertension has potential as an early surrogate marker to predict improved prognosis. Moreover, careful management to avoid discontinuation of treatment leads to longer survival in patients receiving LEN.

Epidemiology of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis in Japan: A focused literature review

Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) represent a growing unmet medical need and an increasingly prevalent cause of cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and death in Japan. The aim of this review was to characterize the epidemiology of NAFLD and NASH in Japan. An English and Japanese literature search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, and ICHUSHI Web, identifying 6553 studies, 67 of which were included. Prevalence of NAFLD in the Japanese population rose from the early 1990s (12.6–12.9%) to the early 2000s (24.6–34.7% of the population). Japanese NASH prevalence is estimated to be 1.9–2.7%. NAFLD and NASH are more common among males than females; however, females experience more severe disease than males. While obese patients had higher prevalence of NAFLD/NASH, nonobese individuals (body mass index [BMI] <25 kg/m²) consistently comprised 20% to >35% of NAFLD and NASH patients. The evidence shows that, despite obesity being linked with worse disease stages, “lean‐NASH” also plays an important role in NASH epidemiology. Besides obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome appeared to be reliably associated with disease severity. The prevalence of advanced fibrosis or cirrhotic disease was the highest in patients with NASH‐HCC (44–80% with stage F3/F4 disease), while 21–50% of patients with NASH had F3/F4 disease. NAFLD/NASH is common in the Japanese population, and the prevalence of these conditions has tripled in the last two decades. Furthermore, these NAFLD/NASH patients have a high comorbidity burden. Early and efficient identification of safe and effective treatments for NAFLD/NASH patients is urgently needed.

Identification of predictive factors in hepatocellular carcinoma outcome: A longitudinal study

Various surgical methods impact the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) differently. However, clinical guidelines remain inconsistent and the relative importance of predictors of survival outcomes requires further evaluation. The present study aimed to rank the importance of predictive factors that impact the survival outcomes of patients with HCC and to compare the prognosis associated with different surgical methods based on data obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. To achieve these aims, the present study used a random forest (RF) model to detect important predictive factors associated with survival outcomes in patients with HCC. Cox regression analysis was used to compare different surgery methods. The variables included in the Cox regression model were selected based on the Gini index calculated by the RF model. Using the RF model, the present study demonstrated that surgery method, tumor size and age were the first, second and third most important factors associated with HCC prognosis, respectively. Overall, patients who underwent local tumor destruction [(hazard ratio (HR)=0.48; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.45–0.51; P<0.001)], wedge or segmental resection (HR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.29–0.33; P<0.001), lobectomy (HR, 0.29, 95% CI, 0.27–0.31; P<0.001) or liver transplantation (HR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.14–0.17; P<0.001) demonstrated improved overall survival time compared with those treated with surgery, with a gradual decreasing trend observed in HRs. The present study demonstrated that the surgical method used is the most important predictor of the survival outcomes of patients with HCC. Liver transplantation resulted in the best prognosis for patients with HCC, except for those with undifferentiated tumors or distant metastasis.

Profiles of advanced hepatic fibrosis evaluated by FIB-4 index and shear wave elastography in health checkup examinees

AIM

Advanced hepatic fibrosis is seen in individuals with potential hepatocellular carcinoma and cardiovascular disease. Hepatic fibrosis can be assessed using a combination of the FIB-4 index and imaging modalities, including shear wave elastography. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of advanced fibrosis in the general population and the profiles associated with advanced fibrosis using a data-mining analysis.

METHODS

We enrolled 1155 health checkup examinees (median age 53 years, 685 women, 470 male). Advanced fibrosis was defined by FIB-4 index ≥1.3 and liver stiffness ≥8.07 kPa using shear wave elastography. Participants were classified as normal-mild fibrosis (n = 1035) or advanced fibrosis (n = 120). Factors associated with advanced fibrosis were analyzed by logistic regression and decision-tree analyses.

RESULTS

Advanced fibrosis was observed in 10.4% of participants (120/1155). In the logistic regression analysis, independent factors for advanced fibrosis were age (≥75 years; OR 2.12, 95% CI 1.021-4.415; P = 0.0419) and the presence of metabolic syndrome (OR 2.51, 95% CI 1.416-4.462; P = 0.0017). The decision-tree analysis showed two profiles associated with advanced fibrosis: profile 1 - individuals aged ≥65 years with metabolic syndrome and mild-to-moderate alcohol consumption (prevalence of advanced fibrosis 73.3%); and profile 2 - individuals without metabolic syndrome, aged ≥75 years, with no exercise habit (prevalence of advanced fibrosis 56.3%).

CONCLUSIONS

Advanced fibrosis was observed in 10.4% of health checkup examinees. Furthermore, we showed that aging, metabolic syndrome with mild-to-moderate alcohol consumption, and physical inactivity were associated with advanced fibrosis. Thus, prevention of metabolic syndrome and alcohol withdrawal, as well as exercise habits, might inhibit the progression of hepatic fibrosis.

Impact of cancer rehabilitation on the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Sarcopenia is a prognostic factor for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Cancer rehabilitation (CR) improves patients' physical function and muscle mass. We investigated the effects of CR on the prognosis of patients with HCC. The present study was a prospective observational study, which analyzed 152 patients with HCC who underwent transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) between 2013 and 2016. Patients were classified into the CR (n=85) and control (n=67) groups. The effects of CR on muscle mass were evaluated by changes in the skeletal muscle index (SMI) before and after TACE. Independent factors associated with survival were evaluated by Cox regression analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to compare the survival rate between the CR and control groups. The difference in survival rate between the two groups was also examined after propensity score matching. SMI was significantly increased in the CR group compared with the control group. In Cox regression analysis, independent factors associated with survival were CR and Child-Pugh class A (estimate 1.760, 95% CI 0.914–3.226, P=0.001; estimate 1.602, 95% CI 0.426–2.998, P=0.0129). The survival rate was significantly higher in the CR group than in the control group (median 552 vs. 424 days; P=0.0359). The survival rate was also significantly higher in the CR group than that in the control group after propensity score matching (median 529 vs. 369 days; P=0.0332). CR was associated with prolonged survival in patients with HCC who underwent TACE. Patients with cancer are recommended to maintain physical activity even during cancer treatment.

Lipid Related Genes Altered in NASH Connect Inflammation in Liver Pathogenesis Progression to HCC: A Canonical Pathway

Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is becoming a public health problem worldwide. While the number of research studies on NASH progression rises every year, sometime their findings are controversial. To identify the most important and commonly described findings related to NASH progression, we used an original bioinformatics, integrative, text-mining approach that combines PubMed database querying and available gene expression omnibus dataset. We have identified a signature of 25 genes that are commonly found to be dysregulated during steatosis progression to NASH and cancer. These genes are implicated in lipid metabolism, insulin resistance, inflammation, and cancer. They are functionally connected, forming the basis necessary for steatosis progression to NASH and further progression to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We also show that five of the identified genes have genome alterations present in HCC patients. The patients with these genes associated to genome alteration are associated with a poor prognosis. In conclusion, using an integrative literature- and data-mining approach, we have identified and described a canonical pathway underlying progression of NASH. Other parameters (e.g., polymorphisms) can be added to this pathway that also contribute to the progression of the disease to cancer. This work improved our understanding of the molecular basis of NASH progression and will help to develop new therapeutic approaches.

High serum interleukin-34 level is a predictor of poor prognosis in patients with non-viral hepatocellular carcinoma

AIMS

We aimed to investigate the impact of interleukin (IL)-34 and YKL-40, regulators of hepatic fibrosis and tumor growth, on the prognosis of patients with non-viral hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS

We enrolled 159 non-viral HCC patients (age, 70.8 ± 8.5 years; female/male, 43/116). Of these, 86 patients were alive and 73 patients had died at the censor time point. Serum IL-34 and YKL-40 levels were quantified by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Patients were stratified by the median level of serum IL-34 to examine its effect on survival. Multivariate analysis and random forest analysis were used to evaluate the impact of IL-34 and YKL-40 on the prognosis of non-viral HCC patients.

RESULTS

Interleukin-34 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.49; P ≤ 0.01), tumor size (HR 1.63; 95% CI, 1.37-1.94; P ≤ 0.01), and tumor number (HR 1.53; 95% CI, 1.25-1.87; P ≤ 0.01) were independent predictive factors for survival. Furthermore, the survival rates were significantly lower in the high IL-34 group than in the low IL-34 group (5-year survival rates, 34.7% vs. 59.8%, respectively; P < 0.05). In the random forest analysis for survival, IL-34 was the third-highest ranking factor, following tumor size and number. In a stratification analysis, serum α-fetoprotein level and Fibrosis-4 index were independent positive risk factors for high serum IL-34 level. YKL-40 was not associated with prognosis in either the multivariate or random forest analysis.

CONCLUSION

Interleukin-34 was an independent factor for survival of non-viral HCC patients. Interleukin-34 might be associated with prognosis through tumor and hepatic fibrosis factors.

Clinical features of hepatocellular carcinoma in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease patients without advanced fibrosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The prevalence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) associated with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD-HCC) is increasing. Unfortunately, NAFLD frequently develops into HCC without liver cirrhosis. Therefore, we investigated the clinical features of HCC in NAFLD patients without advanced fibrosis.

METHODS

We compared clinical characteristics, survival rates, and recurrence rates between 104 NAFLD-HCC patients diagnosed between January 2000 and December 2016, including 35 without (F0-2) and 69 with advanced fibrosis (F3-F4). Risk factors associated with survival and recurrence were evaluated.

RESULTS

In total, 66.3% of those diagnosed had advanced fibrosis, 58.8% in men and 80.5% in women (men vs women, P = 0.03). In NAFLD-HCC without advanced fibrosis, tumor size was significantly larger and liver histological activity was lower than those in patients with advanced fibrosis. Survival rates between the two groups did not differ. Among those achieving curative treatment, the recurrence rate was significantly lower in NAFLD-HCC without advanced fibrosis (P < 0.01). Risk factors of recurrence were male gender, lower serum albumin, and advanced fibrosis.

CONCLUSIONS

In men, HCC tended to develop from NAFLD without advanced fibrosis. Although tumor size in NAFLD-HCC without advanced fibrosis is significantly larger, the recurrence rate is significantly lower. Surgical therapy should be strongly considered in these cases.

Prognostic impact of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with radiofrequency ablation in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma: Comparison with TACE alone using decision-tree analysis after propensity score matching

AIMS

The prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) is still poor. We aimed to evaluate the impact of TACE combined with radiofrequency ablation (TACE+RFA) on the prognosis of HCC patients using decision-tree analysis after propensity score matching.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study. We enrolled 420 patients with HCC treated with TACE alone (n = 311) or TACE+RFA (n = 109) between 1998 and 2016 (median age, 72 years; male / female, 272/148; Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage A / B, 215/205). The prognosis of patients who underwent TACE+RFA was compared to patients who underwent TACE alone after propensity score matching. Decision-tree analysis was used to investigate the profile for prognosis of the patients.

RESULTS

After propensity score matching, there was no significant difference in age, sex, BCLC stage, or albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score between both groups. The survival rate of the TACE+RFA group was significantly higher than the TACE alone group (median survival time [MST] 57.9 months vs. 33.1 months, P < 0.001). In a stratification analysis according to BCLC stage, the overall survival rate of the TACE+RFA group was significantly higher than the TACE alone group in BCLC stage A and B (MST 57.9 and 50.7 months vs. 39.8 and 24.5 months [P = 0.007 and 0.001], respectively). Decision-tree analysis showed that TACE+RFA was the third distinguishable factor for survival in patients with α-fetoprotein level >7 ng/mL and ALBI <-2.08.

CONCLUSION

Decision-tree analysis after propensity score matching showed that TACE+RFA could prolong the survival of HCC patients compared to TACE alone.

Rifaximin-altered gut microbiota components associated with liver/neuropsychological functions in patients with hepatic encephalopathy: An exploratory data analysis of phase II/III clinical trials

AIMS

Rifaximin (RFX), a non-systemic antibiotic, improves liver/neuropsychological functions in patients with hepatic encephalopathy (HE). We aimed to investigate the clinical profiles associated with gut bacterial loads using exploratory data analysis and the effects of RFX on the gut microbiota of patients with HE.

METHODS

We analyzed the data from 17 patients with HE who underwent fecal microbiota examination in phase II/III trials in Japan. Profiles associated with genera Streptococcus, Veillonella, and Lactobacillus loads were analyzed using classification and regression trees (CART). Changes in gut microbial consortia of seven patients with HE were then assessed 2 weeks after RFX treatment by principal component analysis.

RESULTS

In the CART, the first and second divergence variables for each higher bacterial load were as follows: (i) in Streptococcus, the number connection test-A ≥39.55 s and presence of portal-systemic shunt; (ii) in Veillonella, serum potassium levels <4.75 mEq/L and total cholesterol level <129.5 mg/dL; and (iii) in Lactobacillus, white blood cell counts ≥3.4 × 10³ /μL and aspartate aminotransferase level ≥44.5 U/L. There was no significant change in total bacterial load before and after RFX treatment; however, there was a decrease in Streptococcus, Veillonella, and Lactobacillus counts after RFX treatment.

CONCLUSION

We report clinical profiles associated with gut bacterial loads in patients with HE, and showed that RFX altered gut microbiota components associated with liver/neuropsychological functions. Thus, RFX could improve liver/neuropsychological functions through the regulation of the gut microbial consortia in patients with HE.