Species distribution models throughout the invasion history of Palmer amaranth predict regions at risk of future invasion and reveal challenges with modeling rapidly shifting geographic ranges

Climatic variables are more effective on the spatial distribution of oak forests than land use change across their historical range

The current research is conducted to model the effect of climate change and land use change (LUC) on the geographical distribution of Quercus brantii Lindl. (QB) forests across their historical range. Forecasting was done based on six general circulation models under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 future climate change scenarios for the future years 2050 and 2070. In order to model the species distribution, different modeling methods were used. The results indicated that, in general, climatic variables had a higher influence on the distribution of QB than land use-related attributes. The mean diurnal range (bio2), the precipitation seasonality (bio15), and the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9) were the main predictors in the distribution of QB forests, while land use variables were less important in oak species distribution. The GBM, MaxEnt, and RF had higher accuracy and performance in modeling species distribution. The outputs also showed that in the current climate circumstances, 97,608.81 km2 of the studied area has high desirability for the presence of QB, and by 2070, under the pessimistic scenario, 96.29% of these habitats will be lost under the concomitant effect of LUC and climate change. By using the results of this research, it is possible to predict and identify the effective factors in changing the habitat of this oak species with more certainty. Based on the insights obtained from the results of such studies, the protection and restoration planning of the habitat of this key species, which supports diverse species, will be provided more efficiently.

Hidden cargo: The impact of historical shipping trade on the recent-past and contemporary non-native flora of northeastern United States

PREMISE

Understanding establishment and spread of non-native plants is important in the face of a homogenizing global flora. While many studies focus on successful, invasive species, fewer have studied failed plant introductions. Until the early 1900s, large quantities of ship ballast, often containing foreign plant propagules, were deposited in New Jersey (USA). The resulting ballast flora is documented in extensive herbarium records, providing us a unique opportunity to analyze successes and failures of novel plant species introductions.

METHODS

We used digitized specimens from 75 herbaria to study 264 non-native species introduced into New Jersey through 19th century ballast deposition. We used spatial (density-based clustering; HDBSCAN) and temporal analyses of species retention and geographic spread to quantify disappearance rate, survival, and dispersion through time and define trajectory groups.

RESULTS

Four distinct trajectory groups were identified: waif (only present during import; 32% of species), short-term (disappeared quickly; 20%), established-limited spread (survives locally, 30%), and established-widespread (widespread, 18%). Species disappearance rate was highest during ballast deposition and decreased soon after deposition stopped around 1900. Spatial patterns showed a strong association with 19th century railroads for inland dispersal from ports. The disappearance rate and spatial analyses are robust to herbarium collection bias.

CONCLUSIONS

This study using New Jersey as a model is one of the few documenting multispecies successes and failures in inadvertent plant introductions. Results reveal distinct trends in species establishment and geographic spread and highlight the utility of herbarium specimens in answering questions that span large time scales.

Modelling the effects of topographic heterogeneity on distribution of Nitraria tangutorum Bobr. species in deserts using LiDAR-data

Microclimate ecology is attracting renewed attention because of its fundamental importance in understanding how organisms respond to climate change. Many hot issues can be investigated in desert ecosystems, including the relationship between species distribution and environmental gradients (e.g., elevation, slope, topographic convergence index, and solar insolation). Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can be used to understand these relationships. We used data acquired from the important desert plant Nitraria tangutorum Bobr. communities and desert topographic factors extracted from LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data of one square kilometer in the inner Mongolia region of China to develop SDMs. We evaluated the performance of SDMs developed with a variety of both the parametric and nonparametric algorithms (Bioclimatic Modelling (BIOCLIM), Domain, Mahalanobi, Generalized Linear Model, Generalized Additive Model, Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate these algorithms. The SDMs developed with RF showed the best performance based on the area under curve (0.7733). We also produced the Nitraria tangutorum Bobr. distribution maps with the best SDM and suitable habitat area of the Domain model. Based on the suitability map, we conclude that Nitraria tangutorum Bobr. is more suited to southern part with 0-20 degree slopes at an elevation of approximately 1010 m. This is the first attempt of modelling the effects of topographic heterogeneity on the desert species distribution on a small scale. The presented SDMs can have important applications for predicting species distribution and will be useful for preparing conservation and management strategies for desert ecosystems on a small scale.

Fungus under a Changing Climate: Modeling the Current and Future Global Distribution of Fusarium oxysporum Using Geographical Information System Data

The impact of climate change on biodiversity has been the subject of numerous research in recent years. The multiple elements of climate change are expected to affect all levels of biodiversity, including microorganisms. The common worldwide fungus Fusarium oxysporum colonizes plant roots as well as soil and several other substrates. It causes predominant vascular wilt disease in different strategic crops such as banana, tomato, palm, and even cotton, thereby leading to severe losses. So, a robust maximum entropy algorithm was implemented in the well-known modeling program Maxent to forecast the current and future global distribution of F. oxysporum under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for 2050 and 2070. The Maxent model was calibrated using 1885 occurrence points. The resulting models were fit with AUC and TSS values equal to 0.9 (±0.001) and 0.7, respectively. Increasing temperatures due to global warming caused differences in habitat suitability between the current and future distributions of F. oxysporum, especially in Europe. The most effective parameter of this fungus distribution was the annual mean temperature (Bio 1); the two-dimensional niche analysis indicated that the fungus has a wide precipitation range because it can live in both dry and rainy habitats as well as a range of temperatures in which it can live to certain limits. The predicted shifts should act as an alarm sign for decision makers, particularly in countries that depend on such staple crops harmed by the fungus.

Climate change has increased the global threats posed by three ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in the Anthropocene

Invasive alien plants (IAPs) substantially affect the native biodiversity, agriculture, industry, and human health worldwide. Ambrosia (ragweed) species, which are major IAPs globally, produce a significant impact on human health and the natural environment. In particular, invasion of A. artemisiifolia, A. psilostachya, and A. trifida in non-native continents is more extensive and severe than that of other species. Here, we used biomod2 ensemble model based on environmental and species occurrence data to predict the potential geographical distribution, overlapping geographical distribution areas, and the ecological niche dynamics of these three ragweeds and further explored the environmental variables shaping the observed patterns to assess the impact of these IAPs on the natural environment and public health. The ecological niche has shifted in the invasive area compared with that in the native area, which increased the invasion risk of three Ambrosia species during the invasion process in the world. The potential geographical distribution and overlapping geographical distribution areas of the three Ambrosia species are primarily distributed in Asia, North America, and Europe, and are expected to increase under four representative concentration pathways in the 2050s. The centers of potential geographical distributions of the three Ambrosia species showed a tendency to shift poleward from the current time to the 2050s. Bioclimatic variables and the human influence index were more significant in shaping these patterns than other factors. In brief, climate change has facilitated the expansion of the geographical distribution and overlapping geographical distribution areas of the three Ambrosia species. Ecomanagement and cross-country management strategies are warranted to mitigate the future effects of the expansion of these ragweed species worldwide in the Anthropocene on the natural environment and public health.

Spatial weed distribution models under climate change: a short review

Climate change is a concern worldwide that could trigger many changes with severe consequences. Since human demography is steadily increasing, agriculture has to be constantly investigated to aim at improving its efficiency. Weeds play a key role in this task, especially in the recent past and at present, when new introductions have been favoured by a rise in tourism and international trade. To obtain knowledge relating weeds and their behaviour to climate change, species distribution models (SDMs) have also increased recently. In this work, we have reviewed some articles published since 2017 on modelled weeds, aiming to give a response to, among other things, the species most studied, the scale and location of the studies, the algorithms used and validation parameters, global change scenarios, types of variables, and the sources from which the data were collected. Fifty-nine articles were selected to be reviewed, with maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and area under the curve (AUC) being the most popular software and validation processes. Environmental and topographic variables were considered above pedological and anthropogenic ones. Europe was the continent and China, the USA, and India the countries most studied. In this review, it was found that the number of published articles between developed and developing countries is unbalanced and comes out in favour of the former. The current knowledge on this topic can be considered to be good not enough, especially in developing countries with high population densities. The more knowledge we can obtain, the better our understanding is of how to deal with this issue, which is a worldwide preoccupation.

Contradictory effect of climate change on American and European populations of Impatiens capensis Meerb. - is this herb a global threat?

AIMS

The present study is the first-ever attempt to generate information on the potential present and future distribution of Impatiens capensis (orange balsam) under various climate change scenarios. Moreover, the differences in bioclimatic preferences of native and non-native populations were evaluated.

LOCATION

Global.

TAXON

Angiosperms.

METHODS

A database of I. capensis localities was compiled based on the public database - the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), herbarium specimens, and a field survey in Poland. The initial dataset was verified, and each record was assigned to one of two groups - native (3664 records from North America) or non-native (750 records from Europe and the western part of North America). The analyses involved bioclimatic variables in 2.5 arc-minutes of interpolated climate surface downloaded from WorldClim v. 2.1. MaxEnt version 3.3.2 was used to conduct the ecological niche modeling based on presence-only observations of I. capensis. Forecasts of the future distribution of the climatic niches of the studied species in 2080-2100 were made based on climate projections developed by the CNRM/CERFACS modeling and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC-6).

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Distribution models created for "present time" showed slightly broader potential geographical ranges of both native and invasive populations of orange balsam. On the other hand, some areas (e.g. NW Poland, SW Finland), settled by the species, are far outside the modeled climate niche, which indicates a much greater adaptation potential of I. capensis. In addition, the models have shown that climate change will shift the native range of orange balsam to the north and the range of its European populations to the northwest. Moreover, while the coverage of niches suitable for I. capensis in America will extend due to climate change, the European populations will face 31-95 % habitat loss.

Involvement of glutamine synthetase 2 (GS2) amplification and overexpression in Amaranthus palmeri resistance to glufosinate

Amplification and overexpression of the target site glutamine synthetase, specifically the plastid-located isoform, confers resistance to glufosinate in Amaranthus palmeri. This mechanism is novel among glufosinate-resistant weeds. Amaranthus palmeri has recently evolved resistance to glufosinate herbicide. Several A. palmeri populations from Missouri and Mississippi, U.S.A. had survivors when sprayed with glufosinate-ammonium (GFA, 657 g ha^-1). One population, MO#2 (fourfold resistant) and its progeny (sixfold resistant), were used to study the resistance mechanism, focusing on the herbicide target glutamine synthetase (GS). We identified four GS genes in A. palmeri; three were transcribed: one coding for the plastidic protein (GS2) and two coding for cytoplasmic isoforms (GS1.1 and GS1.2). These isoforms did not contain mutations associated with resistance. The 17 glufosinate survivors studied showed up to 21-fold increase in GS2 copies. GS2 was expressed up to 190-fold among glufosinate survivors. GS1.1 was overexpressed > twofold in only 3 of 17, and GS1.2 in 2 of 17 survivors. GS inhibition by GFA causes ammonia accumulation in susceptible plants. Ammonia level was analyzed in 12 F1 plants. GS2 expression was negatively correlated with ammonia level (r =  - 0.712); therefore, plants with higher GS2 expression are less sensitive to GFA. The operating efficiency of photosystem II (ϕPSII) of Nicotiana benthamiana overexpressing GS2 was four times less inhibited by GFA compared to control plants. Therefore, increased copy and overexpression of GS2 confer resistance to GFA in A. palmeri (or other plants). We present novel understanding of the role of GS2 in resistance evolution to glufosinate.

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of Ageratina adenophora in China using equilibrium occurrence data and ensemble model

Invasive alien plants (IAPs) pose a significant threat to the ecological environment and agricultural production in China. Ageratina adenophora is one of the most aggressive IAPs in China and poses serious ecological and socioeconomic threats. Estimating the distribution pattern of A. adenophora in China can provide baseline data for preventing damage by this weed. In the present study, based on the equilibrium occurrence data of A. adenophora in China and related environmental variables, we used an ensemble model to predict the distribution pattern of A. adenophora in China under climate change. Our findings indicated that true skill statistic (TSS), area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and Cohen’s Kappa (KAPPA) values for the ensemble model were 0.925, 0.993, and 0.936, respectively. The prediction results of the ensemble model were more accurate than those of the single models. Temperature variables had a significant impact on the potential geographical distribution (PGD) of A. adenophora in China. The total, high, and moderate suitability habitat areas of A. adenophora in China were 153.82 × 104, 92.13 × 104, and 21.04 × 104 km2, respectively, accounting for 16.02, 9.60, and 2.19% of the Chinese mainland area, respectively. The PGD of A. adenophora in China under the current climate is mainly located in southwestern and southeastern China, which are located in the tropical and subtropical zone. The high-suitability habitat areas of A. adenophora decreased under the future climate scenarios, mainly by changing to moderately suitable habitats in Southwest China. The geographical distribution of A. adenophora in southwestern China is currently saturated and will spread to southeastern China under climate change in the future. More attention should be paid to early warning and monitoring of A. adenophora in southeastern China to prevent its further spread.

Reliable and rapid identification of glyphosate-resistance in the invasive weed Amaranthus palmeri in China

BACKGROUND

Glyphosate-resistant invasive plants, including Amaranthus palmeri S. Watson, have greatly challenged management of new invasions. Elucidating their glyphosate resistance levels rapidly and accurately will better inform management strategies. Quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) has been used to identify glyphosate resistance in A. palmeri by detecting gene copy numbers of 5-enolpyruvylshikimate-3-phosphate synthase (EPSPS), an enzyme inhibited by glyphosate. However, qPCR can only indirectly determine copy numbers because it requires a calibrator sample; it also lacks standardization, thus limiting its usefulness. Droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) is a new method to detect copy number directly and precisely. We evaluated ddPCR as a tool to determine glyphosate-resistance level while using qPCR and glyphosate dose response (GDR) assays as reference technologies to compare performance and efficiency between methods.

RESULTS

We identified seven susceptible and seven resistant populations of A. palmeri using the GDR assay. Resistant levels detected by qPCR and ddPCR were generally consistent with the GDR results. Although detected values obtained by qPCR and ddPCR were highly correlated (R2  = 0.94), ddPCR results had a lower proportion of non-ideal values (36%) with better accuracy (100%) and specificity (100%) than those of qPCR results.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings demonstrate that ddPCR offers improved accuracy and specificity in detecting EPSPS gene copy numbers and is a robust and rapid method for glyphosate-resistance identification in A. palmeri. Our research is the first to measure glyphosate resistance in A. palmeri by ddPCR assay and will shed light on future applications of ddPCR in identifying herbicide resistance in other invasive weeds. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Predicting Potential Habitat Changes of Two Invasive Alien Fish Species with Climate Change at a Regional Scale

Developing national-level policies related to climate change induced expansions of invasive species requires predictive modelling at a regional scale level. This study aimed to predict future changes in the habitat distributions of two major invasive alien fish species, Micropterus salmoides and Lepomis macrochirus, in South Korea. An ensemble system with multiple species distribution models was used for the prediction, and gridded water portion data from the linear-structure information on river channels inputted as habitat characteristics of freshwater ecosystem into the models. Bioclimatic variables at 20-year intervals from 2001 to 2100 were generated from predicted temperature and precipitation data under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The overall distribution probabilities of the potential habitats increased with time in both climate change scenarios, and the potential habitats were predicted to expand to upstream areas. Combined with regional ecological value information, such as biodiversity in freshwater ecosystems, these results can be an important basis for deriving regional priority information for managing alien species in climate change. Additionally, the modelling approach is highly applicable to various national-level policies for ecosystem conservation since it is not greatly restricted by spatial scales.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Factors Driving the Distributions of Pine Wilt Disease-Damaged Forests in China

Many forests have suffered serious economic losses and ecological consequences of pine wilt disease (PWD) outbreaks. Climate change and human activities could accelerate the distribution of PWD, causing the exponential expansion of damaged forest areas in China. However, few studies have analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics and the factors driving the distribution of PWD-damaged forests using continuous records of long-term damage, focusing on short-term environmental factors that influence multiple PWD outbreaks. We used a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model that incorporated annual meteorological and human activity factors, as well as temporal dependence (the PWD distribution in the previous year), to determine the contributions of environmental factors to the annual distribution of PWD-damaged forests in the period 1982–2020. Overall, the MaxEnt showed good performance in modeling the PWD-damaged forest distributions between 1982 and 2020. Our results indicate that (i) the temporal lag dependence term for the presence/absence of PWD was the best predictor of the distribution of PWD-damaged forests; and (ii) Bio14 (precipitation in the driest month) was the most important meteorological factor for affecting the PWD-damaged forests. These results are essential to understanding the factors governing the distribution of PWD-damaged forests, which is important for forest management and pest control worldwide.

The Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution and Evolution Process of Catalpa bungei in China

Catalpa bungei C. A. Mey. (C. bungei) is one of the recommended native species for ecological management in China. It is a fast-growing tree of high economic and ecological importance, but its rare resources, caused by anthropogenic destruction and local climatic degradation, have not satisfied the requirements. It has been widely recommended for large-scale afforestation of ecological management and gradually increasing in recent years, but the impact mechanism of climate change on its growth has not been studied yet. Studying the response of species to climate change is an important part of national afforestation planning. Based on combinations of climate, topography, soil variables, and the multiple model ensemble (MME) of CMIP6, this study explored the relationship between C. bungei and climate change, then constructed Maxent to predict its potential distribution under SSP126 and SSP585 and analyzed its dominant environmental factors. The results showed that C. bungei is widely distributed in Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shaanxi provinces and others where it covers an area of 2.96 × 106 km2. Under SSP126 and SSP585, its overall habitat area will increase by more than 14.2% in 2080–2100, which mainly indicates the transformation of unsuitable areas into low suitable areas. The center of its distribution will migrate to the north with a longer distance under SSP585 than that under SSP126, and it will transfer from the junction of Shaanxi and Hubei province to the north of Shaanxi province under SSP585 by 2100. In that case, C. bungei shows a large-area degradation trend in the south of the Yangtze River Basin but better suitability in the north of the Yellow River Basin, such as the Northeast Plain, the Tianshan Mountains, the Loess Plateau, and others. Temperature factors have the greatest impact on the distribution of C. bungei. It is mainly affected by the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, followed by precipitation of the wettest month, mean diurnal range, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. Our results hence demonstrate that the increase of the mean temperature of the coldest quarter becomes the main reason for its degradation, which simultaneously means a larger habitat boundary in Northeast China. The findings provide scientific evidence for the ecological restoration and sustainable development of C. bungei in China.

Taxonomy, allometry, sexual dimorphism, and conservation of the trans-Andean watersnake Helicops danieli Amaral, 1937 (Serpentes: Dipsadidae: Hydropsini)

The extensive lack of knowledge on the morphological aspects of South American watersnakes includes a poor understanding of phenotypic parameters, intraspecific variation, and conservation of the trans-Andean Helicops species, Daniel’s Keelback (Helicops danieli Amaral, 1937). For the first time, we provide a multidisciplinary view using key features (e.g., morphology and niche modeling) to improve the taxonomic recognition of this species, as well as describing ontogenetic color changes, allometry, sexual dimorphism, and the conservation status of this poorly studied snake. First, we emended the morphological diagnosis of H. danieli with 23 characters and detected that juvenile tail length is positively related to allometric growth, and that juveniles differ from adults through the presence of the white nuchal collar. Females are larger than males for snout–vent length, whereas males showed proportionally longer tails and smaller head length growth. Suitable areas for H. danieli are restricted to the trans-Andean regions from the Magdalena drainage to the Caribbean coast, which also showed high values of anthropic impacts. Our multidisciplinary approach provided new insights into this South American watersnake’s morphology, intraspecific variation, and distribution.

Investigating the origins and evolution of a glyphosate-resistant weed invasion in South America

The global invasion, and subsequent spread and evolution of weeds provides unique opportunities to address fundamental questions in evolutionary and invasion ecology. Amaranthus palmeri is a widespread glyphosate-resistant (GR) weed in the USA. Since 2015, GR populations of A. palmeri have been confirmed in South America, raising questions about introduction pathways and the importance of pre- vs. post-invasion evolution of GR traits. We used RAD-sequencing genotyping to characterize genetic structure of populations from Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and the USA. We also quantified gene copy number of the glyphosate target, 5-enolpyruvyl-3-shikimate phosphate synthase (EPSPS), and the presence of an extrachromosomal circular DNA (eccDNA) replicon known to confer glyphosate resistance in USA populations. Populations in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay were only weakly differentiated (pairwise FST  ≤0.043) in comparison to USA populations (mean pairwise FST  =0.161, range =0.068-0.258), suggesting a single major invasion event. However, elevated EPSPS copy number and the EPSPS replicon were identified in all populations from Brazil and Uruguay, but only in a single Argentinean population. These observations are consistent with independent in situ evolution of glyphosate resistance in Argentina, followed by some limited recent migration of the eccDNA-based mechanism from Brazil to Argentina. Taken together, our results are consistent with an initial introduction of A. palmeri into South America sometime before the 1980s, and local evolution of GR in Argentina, followed by a secondary invasion of GR A. palmeri with the unique eccDNA-based mechanism from the USA into Brazil and Uruguay during the 2010s.

Predicting the Potential Distribution of Non-Native Mammalian Species Sold in the South African Pet Trade

The pet trade is one of the main pathways of introduction of several mammals worldwide. In South Africa, non-native mammalian species are traded as pets, and so far, only four of these species are considered invasive. We used a list of 24 companion mammalian species compiled from a previous study. We selected a subset of 14 species for species distribution modeling (SDM) based on their trade popularity, invasion history and potential economic and socio-economic impacts. We aimed to estimate their potential distribution using their distribution records. Our SDM indicated that climate in South Africa was suitable for most traded species. However, commonly and easily available species had the broadest areas of suitable climates, such as house mice (Mus musculus) and Norwegian rats (Rattus norvegicus). In addition, the model with a human footprint suggested a high risk of invasion for Norwegian rats but less for house mice distribution. This assessment suggests the need of strict trade regulations and management strategies for pet mammals with broader suitability, which are already invasive, and most available for sale. In addition, our results provide a baseline approach that can be used to identify mammalian pet species with a potential risk of invasion so that urgent preventive measures can be implemented.

Evidence of Constrained Divergence and Conservatism in Climatic Niches of the Temperate Maples (Acer L.)

Research highlights: The availability of global distribution data and new, fossil-calibrated phylogenies has made it possible to compare the climatic niches of the temperate maple (Acer L.) taxa and assess phylogenetic and continental patterns in niche overlap. Background and Objectives: The maples have radiated from East Asia into two other temperate continental bioregions, North America and Eurasia (Europe and West Asia), over a roughly 60-million-year period. During this time, the Earth’s climate experienced pronounced cooling and drying, culminating in cyclic periods of widespread temperate glaciation in the Pliocene to Pleistocene. The objective of this study is to use newly available data to model the climatic niches of 60% of the temperate maples and assess patterns of niche divergence, constraint, and conservatism in the genus’s radiation out of East Asia. Materials and Methods: I assembled global occurrence data and associated climatic information for 71 maple taxa, including all species endemic to temperate North America and Eurasia and their closely related East Asian congeners. I constructed Maxent niche models for all taxa and compared the climatic niches of 184 taxa pairs and assessed phylogenetic signal in key niche axes for each taxon and in niche overlap at the continental and global scale. Results: Maxent models define a fundamental climatic niche for temperate maples and suggest that drought-intolerant taxa have been lost from the Eurasian maple flora, with little continental difference in temperature optima or breadth. Niche axes and niche overlap show minimal evidence of phylogenetic signal, suggesting adaptive evolution. Pairwise niche comparisons reveal infrequent niche overlap continentally and globally, even among sister pairs, with few taxa pairs sharing ecological niche space, providing evidence for constrained divergence within the genus’s fundamental climatic niche. Evidence of niche conservatism is limited to three somewhat geographically isolated regions of high maple diversity (western North America, the Caucasus, and Japan). Conclusions: Over 60 million years of hemispheric radiation on a cooling and drying planet, the maple genus experienced divergent, though constrained, climatic niche evolution. High climatic niche diversity across spatial and phylogenetic scales along with very limited niche overlap or conservatism suggests that the radiation of the genus has largely been one of adaptive diversification.

Balancing the need for seed against invasive species risks in prairie habitat restorations

Adequate diversity and abundance of native seed for large-scale grassland restorations often require commercially produced seed from distant sources. However, as sourcing distance increases, the likelihood of inadvertent introduction of multiple novel, non-native weed species as seed contaminants also increases. We created a model to determine an "optimal maximum distance" that would maximize availability of native prairie seed from commercial sources while minimizing the risk of novel invasive weeds via contamination. The model focused on the central portion of the Level II temperate prairie ecoregion in the Midwest US. The median optimal maximum distance from which to source seed was 272 km (169 miles). In addition, we weighted the model to address potential concerns from restoration practitioners: 1. sourcing seed via a facilitated migration strategy (i.e., direct movement of species from areas south of a given restoration site to assist species' range expansion) to account for warming due to climate change; and 2. emphasizing non-native, exotic species with a federal mandate to control. Weighting the model for climate change increased the median optimal maximum distance to 398 km (247 miles), but this was not statistically different from the distance calculated without taking sourcing for climate adaptation into account. Weighting the model for federally mandated exotic species increased the median optimal maximum distance only slightly to 293 km (182 miles), so practitioners may not need to adjust their sourcing strategy, compared to the original model. This decision framework highlights some potential inadvertent consequences from species translocations and provides insight on how to balance needs for prairie seed against those risks.

Prediction of Future Natural Suitable Areas for Rice under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

Extreme temperature events, which are part of global climate change, are a growing threat to crop production, especially to such temperature-sensitive crops as rice. As a result, the traditional rice-growing areas are also likely to shift. The MaxEnt model was used for predicting the areas potentially suitable for rice in the short term (2016–2035) and in the medium term (2046–2065) and under two scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, namely representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (the intermediate scenario) and RCP 8.5 (sometimes referred to as the worst-case scenario). The predictions, on verification, were seen to be highly accurate: the AUC—area under the curve—value of the MaxEnt model was > 0.85. The model made the following predictions. (1) Areas highly suitable for rice crops will continue to be concentrated mainly in the current major rice-production areas, and areas only marginally suitable will be concentrated mainly in the rainforest region. (2) Overall, although the current pattern of the distribution of such areas would remain more or less unchanged, their extent will mainly decrease in the subtropics but increase in the tropics and in high-latitude regions. (3) The extent of such areas will decrease in the short term but increase in the medium term.

Distribution modelling of an introduced species: do adaptive genetic markers affect potential range?

Biological invasions have increased in the last few decades mostly due to anthropogenic causes such as globalization of trade. Because invaders sometimes cause large economic losses and ecological disturbances, estimating their origin and potential geographical ranges is useful. Drosophila subobscura is native to the Old World but was introduced in the New World in the late 1970s and spread widely. We incorporate information on adaptive genetic markers into ecological niche modelling and then estimate the most probable geographical source of colonizers; evaluate whether the genetic bottleneck experienced by founders affects their potential distribution; and finally test whether this species has spread to all its potential suitable habitats worldwide. We find the environmental space occupied by this species in its native and introduced distributions are notably the same, although the introduced niche has shifted slightly towards higher temperature and lower precipitation. The genetic bottleneck of founding individuals was a key factor limiting the spread of this introduced species. We also find that regions in the Mediterranean and north-central Portugal show the highest probability of being the origin of the colonizers. Using genetically informed environmental niche modelling can enhance our understanding of the initial colonization and spread of invasive species, and also elucidate potential areas of future expansions worldwide.

An African bat in Europe, Plecotus gaisleri: Biogeographic and ecological insights from molecular taxonomy and Species Distribution Models

Because of the high risk of going unnoticed, cryptic species represent a major challenge to biodiversity assessments, and this is particularly true for taxa that include many such species, for example, bats. Long-eared bats from the genus Plecotus comprise numerous cryptic species occurring in the Mediterranean Region and present complex phylogenetic relationships and often unclear distributions, particularly at the edge of their known ranges and on islands. Here, we combine Species Distribution Models (SDMs), field surveys and molecular analyses to shed light on the presence of a cryptic long-eared bat species from North Africa, Plecotus gaisleri, on the islands of the Sicily Channel, providing strong evidence that this species also occurs in Europe, at least on the islands of the Western Mediterranean Sea that act as a crossroad between the Old Continent and Africa. Species Distribution Models built using African records of P. gaisleri and projected to the Sicily Channel Islands showed that all these islands are potentially suitable for the species. Molecular identification of Plecotus captured on Pantelleria, and recent data from Malta and Gozo, confirmed the species' presence on two of the islands in question. Besides confirming that P. gaisleri occurs on Pantelleria, haplotype network reconstructions highlighted moderate structuring between insular and continental populations of this species. Our results remark the role of Italy as a bat diversity hotspot in the Mediterranean and also highlight the need to include P. gaisleri in European faunal checklists and conservation directives, confirming the usefulness of combining different approaches to explore the presence of cryptic species outside their known ranges-a fundamental step to informing conservation.

Modeling current and future global distribution of Chrysomya bezziana under changing climate

In the last few years, significant changes in climate have had a disparate effect on biodiversity. The influences of these changes are random and unpredictable. The resurgence of insect pests, especially of medical and veterinary importance, often corresponds with climate changes. The Old World screwworm, Chrysomya bezziana, is one of the most important myiasis-causing flies that parasitize warm-blooded animals in the Eastern Hemisphere. We used a spatial distribution modeling approach to estimate the consequences of climatic changes on the potential geographic distribution of this insect throughout the world currently and in the future. A Maxent model used occurrence data from 104 localities and 19 climatic factors to predict the suitable habitat regions throughout the world. Two representative concentration pathways 2.6 and 8.5, were used to forecast the future distribution of C. bezziana in 2050 and 2070. The Maxent model for C. bezziana provided a satisfactory result, with a high value of the Area Under Curve equal to 0.855 (±0.001). Furthermore, the True Skilled Statistics value is equal to 0.67. These values indicate the significant influence on the model of the ecology of this fly species. Jackknife test indicated that temperature variables play a significant role in C. bezziana dynamics. The resultant models indicated the areas at risk of invasion by potential serious medical/veterinary issues, especially in countries with a large livestock production.

Increased chilling tolerance of the invasive species Carpobrotus edulis may explain its expansion across new territories

Invasive plants are expanding their geographical distribution across new regions. Expansion modeling is crucial for geographic prioritization in management policies. However, the assumption of niche conservatism and the lack of information of the species physiological response to the environmental factors determining species presence may hinder predictions. In this study, we aimed to understand the expansion of the widely distributed plant Carpobrotus edulis in Europe. We contrasted introduced and native C. edulis ecological niches and explored the experimental response to temperature, a major determining factor for species distribution, of native and invasive individuals in terms of different biochemical markers. Niche analysis revealed an expansion of the introduced niche to occupy colder climates. Introduced and native individuals showed differential mechanisms facing low temperatures. Individuals from the native range showed an increased sensitivity to chilling, as reflected by photosynthetic pigment degradation, increased de-epoxidation of xanthophylls and the accumulation of the lipophilic antioxidant alpha-tocopherol. The found physiological differentiation towards an increased invasive chilling tolerance of invasive C. edulis individuals together with a high propagule pressure may explain the introduced climatic niche shift to colder climates observed, allowing the extensive expansion of this species in Europe.

Graminoid Invasion in an Insular Endemism Hotspot and Its Protected Areas

Invasive plant species are increasingly altering species composition and the functioning of ecosystems from a local to a global scale. The grass species Pennisetum setaceum has recently raised concerns as an invader on different archipelagos worldwide. Among these affected archipelagos are the Canary Islands, which are a hotspot of endemism. Consequently, conservation managers and stakeholders are interested in the potential spreading of this species in the archipelago. We identify the current extent of the suitable habitat for P. setaceum on the island of La Palma to assess how it affects island ecosystems, protected areas (PAs), and endemic plant species richness. We recorded in situ occurrences of P. setaceum from 2010 to 2018 and compiled additional ones from databases at a 500 m × 500 m resolution. To assess the current suitable habitat and possible distribution patterns of P. setaceum on the island, we built an ensemble model. We projected habitat suitability for island ecosystems and PAs and identified risks for total as well as endemic plant species richness. The suitable habitat for P. setaceum is calculated to cover 34.7% of the surface of La Palma. In open ecosystems at low to mid elevations, where native ecosystems are already under pressure by land use and human activities, the spread of the invader will likely lead to additional threats to endemic plant species. Forest ecosystems (e.g., broadleaved evergreen and coniferous forests) are not likely to be affected by the spread of P. setaceum because of its heliophilous nature. Our projection of suitable habitat of P. setaceum within ecosystems and PAs on La Palma supports conservationists and policymakers in prioritizing management and control measures and acts as an example for the potential threat of this graminoid invader on other islands.