Emergency Department Visits and Disease Burden Attributable to Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions in Elderly Adults

Epidemiology of Non-Emergent Cancer-Related Emergency Department Visits in Korea between 2016 and 2020

PURPOSE

As people living with cancer increase in the aging society, cancer-related emergency department (ED) visits are also increasing. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiologic characteristics of non-emergent cancer-related ED visits using a nationwide ED database.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted using the National Emergency Department Information System (NEDIS) database. All cancer-related ED visits between 2016 and 2020 were included. The study outcome was non-emergent ED visits, defined as patients triaged into non-emergent condition at both the time of arrival at ED and discharge from ED and were discharged without hospitalization.

RESULTS

Among 1185871 cancer-related ED visits over 5 years, 19.0% (n=225491) were classified as non-emergent visits. While abdominal pain and fever are the top chief complaints in both emergent and non-emergent visits, non-emergent visits had high proportions of abdomen distension (4.8%), ascite (2.4%), and pain in lower limb (2.0%) compared with emergent visits. The cancer types with a high proportion of non-emergent visits were thyroid (32.4%) and prostate cancer (30.4%). Adults compared with children or older adults, female, medical aid insurance, urban/rural ED, direct-in compared with transfer-in, and weekend visit were associated with high odds for non-emergent visits.

CONCLUSION

Approximately 20% of cancer-related ED visits may be potentially non-emergent. A significant number of non-emergent patients visited the ED due to cancer-related symptoms. To improve the quality of care for people living with cancer, the expansion of supportive care resources besides of ED, including active symptom control, is necessary.

Epidemiology and characteristics of emergency department utilization by patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Korea from 2016 to 2020: A nationwide study

INTRODUCTION/AIMS

Patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) inevitably visit the emergency department (ED) due to their increased risk of respiratory failure and mobility limitations. However, nationwide data on ED visits by patients with ALS are limited. This study investigated the characteristics of patients with ALS-related ED visits.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study from 2016 to 2020, utilizing a nationwide ED database. The total number of patients with ALS who visited the ED and their primary reasons for visiting/diagnoses were analyzed.

RESULTS

In total, 6036 visits to the ED were made by patients with ALS. Of these, 41.8% arrived by ambulance and 27.7% spent >9 h in the ED. Following ED treatment, 57.4% were hospitalized, including 19.3% admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and 5.4% who died in the hospital. The primary reasons for ALS-related ED visits were dyspnea (35.2%), feeding tube problems (10.1%), fever (7.8%), and mental status changes (3.6%). The most common diagnoses were pneumonia (14.5%), respiratory failure (5.7%), dyspnea (5.5%), aspiration pneumonia (4.3%), and tracheostomy complications (3.4%).

DISCUSSION

Reasons for ED visits for patients with ALS include acute respiratory distress, as well as concerns related to tube feeding and tracheostomy. To reduce the risk of patients with ALS requiring ED visits, it is essential to ensure the provision of timely respiratory support and high-quality home-based medical care teams that can support and address patients before their condition deteriorates.

The Impact of the Swedish Care Coordination Act on Hospital Readmission and Length-of-Stay among Multi-Morbid Elderly Patients: A Controlled Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Coordinating follow-up care after discharge from hospital is critical to ensuring good outcomes for patients, but is difficult when multiple care providers are involved. In 2018, Sweden adopted the Care Coordination Act, which modified economic incentives to reduce discharge delays and mandated a discharge planning process for patients requiring post-discharge social- or primary care services. This study evaluates the impact of this reform on hospital length-of-stay and unplanned readmissions among multi-morbid elderly patients. Interrupted time series analysis of all in-patient care episodes involving multi-morbid elderly patients in Sweden from 2015 - 2019 (n = 2 386 039) was performed. Secondary analyses using case-mix adjustment and controlled interrupted time series analysis were employed to assess for bias. Average length of stay decreased during the post-reform period, corresponding to 248 521 saved care days. Unplanned readmissions meanwhile increased, corresponding to 7 572 excess unplanned readmissions. While reductions in length-of-stay were concentrated among patients targeted by the reform, increases in readmission rates were similar in patients not targeted by the reform, indicating potential confounding. The reform thus appears to have achieved its goal of decreasing in-patient length of stay, but a robust effect on readmissions, outpatient visits, or mortality was not found. This may be due to lackluster implementation or an ineffective mandated intervention.

Machine learning to improve frequent emergency department use prediction: a retrospective cohort study

Frequent emergency department use is associated with many adverse events, such as increased risk for hospitalization and mortality. Frequent users have complex needs and associated factors are commonly evaluated using logistic regression. However, other machine learning models, especially those exploiting the potential of large databases, have been less explored. This study aims at comparing the performance of logistic regression to four machine learning models for predicting frequent emergency department use in an adult population with chronic diseases, in the province of Quebec (Canada). This is a retrospective population-based study using medical and administrative databases from the Régie de l'assurance maladie du Québec. Two definitions were used for frequent emergency department use (outcome to predict): having at least three and five visits during a year period. Independent variables included sociodemographic characteristics, healthcare service use, and chronic diseases. We compared the performance of logistic regression with gradient boosting machine, naïve Bayes, neural networks, and random forests (binary and continuous outcome) using Area under the ROC curve, sensibility, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Out of 451,775 ED users, 43,151 (9.5%) and 13,676 (3.0%) were frequent users with at least three and five visits per year, respectively. Random forests with a binary outcome had the lowest performances (ROC curve: 53.8 [95% confidence interval 53.5-54.0] and 51.4 [95% confidence interval 51.1-51.8] for frequent users 3 and 5, respectively) while the other models had superior and overall similar performance. The most important variable in prediction was the number of emergency department visits in the previous year. No model outperformed the others. Innovations in algorithms may slightly refine current predictions, but access to other variables may be more helpful in the case of frequent emergency department use prediction.

[Nursing home-sensitive conditions and approaches to reduce hospitalization of nursing home residents]

BACKGROUND

Interventions to reduce potentially risky hospitalizations among nursing home residents are highly relevant for patient safety and quality improvement. A catalog of nursing home-sensitive conditions (NHSCs) grounds the policy recommendations and interventions.

METHODS

In two previous research phases, an expert panel developed a catalog of 58 NHSCs using an adapted Delphi-procedure (the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method). This procedure was developed by the North American non-profit Research and Development Organisation (RAND) and clinicians of the University of California in Los Angeles (UCLA). We present the third phase of the project focused on the development of interventions to reduce NHSCs starting with an expert workshop. The workshop results were then evaluated by six experts from related sectors, supplemented, and systematically used to produce recommendations for action. Possible implementation obstacles were considered and the time horizon of effectiveness was estimated.

RESULTS

The recommendations address communication, cooperation, documentation and care competence as well as facility-related, financial, and legal aspects. Indication bundles demonstrate the relevance for the German healthcare system. To increase effectiveness, the experts advise a meaningful combination of individual recommendations.

DISCUSSION

By optimizing multidisciplinary communication and cooperation, combined with an- also digital - expansion of the infrastructure and the creation of institution-specific and legal prerequisites as well as remuneration structures, an estimated 35% of all hospitalizations, approximately 220,000 hospitalizations for Germany, could be prevented. The implementation expenditure could be refinanced by avoided hospitalization savings amounting to 768 million euros.

Warning Signs of Acute Infectious Disease-Related Illness in Persons Living With Dementia: Perspectives of Primary Care Providers, Adult Day Service Center Staff, and Family Care Partners

In the current study, we conducted one-on-one interviews with primary care providers (PCPs) and family care partners (FCPs) and held focus groups with interdisciplinary adult day service center (ADSC) staff to understand the perspectives of care providers across community settings regarding early warning signs of acute illnesses in persons living with dementia (PLWD). We used content analysis to analyze qualitative data. Warning signs of acute illnesses in PLWD fell into one of five categories, including new onset changes in (a) physical functions, (b) moods or behaviors (psychological), (c) social interactions, (d) speech, or (e) appearance. FCPs (n = 11) focused on physical changes, whereas ADSC staff (n = 33) emphasized changes in speech and social interactions in addition to the other categories. Although ADSC staff and PCPs (n = 22) focused on changes in functions and moods, each group described these changes differently. ADSC staff possess rich information that can be used to identify acute changes in PLWD and describe a broader range of warning signs compared to PCPs and FCPs. FCPs may benefit from further training in distinguishing between normal disease progression and acute illness. Future research should focus on the implementation of standardized tools across community-based care providers to simplify the identification and reporting of early warning signs in PLWD. [Journal of Psychosocial Nursing and Mental Health Services, xx(x), xx-xx.].

Profiles of frequent emergency department users with chronic conditions: a latent class analysis

OBJECTIVES

Frequent emergency department users represent a small proportion of users while cumulating many visits. Previously identified factors of frequent use include high physical comorbidity, mental health disorders, poor socioeconomic status and substance abuse. However, frequent users do not necessarily exhibit all these characteristics and they constitute a heterogeneous population. This study aims to establish profiles of frequent emergency department users in an adult population with chronic conditions.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective cohort study using administrative databases.

SETTING

All adults who visited the emergency department between 2012 and 2013 (index date) in the province of Quebec (Canada), diagnosed with at least one chronic condition, and without dementia were included. Patients living in remote areas and who died in the year following their index date were excluded. We used latent class analysis, a probability-based model to establish profiles of frequent emergency department users. Frequent use was defined as having five visits or more during 1 year. Patient characteristics included sociodemographic characteristics, physical and mental comorbidities and prior healthcare utilisation.

RESULTS

Out of 4 51 775 patients who visited emergency departments at least once in 2012-2013, 13 676 (3.03%) were frequent users. Four groups were identified: (1) 'low morbidity' (n=5501, 40.2%), (2) 'high physical comorbidity' (n=3202, 23.4%), (3) 'injury or chronic non-cancer pain' (n=2313, 19.5%) and (4) 'mental health or alcohol/substance abuse' (n=2660, 16.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

The four profiles have distinct medical and socioeconomic characteristics. These profiles provide useful information for developing tailored interventions that would address the specific needs of each type of frequent emergency department users.

Inappropriate and potentially avoidable emergency department visits of Swiss nursing home residents and their resource use: a retrospective chart-review

Background

Emergency department (ED) visits for nursing home residents lead to higher morbidity and mortality. Therefore, inappropriate visits (for conditions treatable elsewhere) or potentially avoidable visits (those avoidable through adequate chronic care management) must be minimized. This study aimed to investigate factors and resource consumption patterns associated with inappropriate and potentially avoidable visits in a Swiss tertiary hospital.

Methods

This is a single-center retrospective chart review in an urban Swiss university hospital ED. A consecutive sample of 1276 visits by nursing home residents (≥ 65 years old), recorded between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2017 (three calendar years) were included. Case characteristics were extracted from ED electronic documentation. Appropriateness was assessed via a structured Appropriateness Evaluation Protocol; potentially avoidable visits—measured as ambulatory-care sensitive conditions (ACSCs)—were analyzed separately. Inter-group differences concerning ED resource use were tested respectively with chi-square or Wilcoxon rank sum tests. To identify predictors of inappropriate or potentially-avoidable visits, we used multivariable logistic regression analysis.

Results

Six percent of visits were rated as inappropriate: they had lower triage levels (OR 0.55 [95%-CI 0.33-0.92], p=0.024) and, compared to ambulance calls, they had higher odds of initiation via either patient-initiated walk-in (OR 3.42 [95%-CI 1.79-6.55], p≤0.001) or GP referrals (OR 2.13 [95%-CI 1.16-3.90], p=0.015). For inappropriate visits, overall ED resource use was significantly lower (median 568 vs. 1403 tax points, p≤0.001). Of all visits included, 29% were due to (often potentially-avoidable) ACSCs. In those cases, compared to ambulance initiation, odds of being potentially-avoidable were considerably lower for walk-in patients (OR 0.46 [95%-CI 0.27-0.77], p=0.004) but higher for GP referrals (OR 1.40 [95%-CI 1.00-1.94], p=0.048). Nurse work (93 tax points vs. 64, p≤0.001) and laboratory resource use (334 tax points vs. 214, p≤0.001) were higher for potentially-avoidable ED visits.

Conclusions

We revealed substantial differences between the investigated groups. While nearly one third of ED visits from nursing homes were potentially avoidable, inappropriate visits were lower in numbers and not resource-intensive. Further research is required to differentiate potentially avoidable visits from inappropriate ones and to determine these findings’ public health implications.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03308-9.

Association between access to primary care and unplanned emergency department return visits among patients 75 years and older

OBJECTIVE

To identify factors associated with unplanned return visits to the emergency department (ED) among the population aged 75 years and older. Moreover, it aims to determine the association between patients' access to primary care and unplanned return visits.

DESIGN

Data were collected from structured interviews, administrative databases, and medical charts at the index visits, and follow-up telephone calls were made at 3 months.

SETTING

Emergency departments of the 3 tertiary care hospitals in Montréal, Que.

PARTICIPANTS

Community-dwelling patients aged 75 years and older.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Zero-inflated negative binomial regression analysis was conducted of unplanned return visits within 3 months. Rate ratios (RRs) and odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs are presented.

RESULTS

During the study period, 4577 patients were identified, 2303 were recruited, and 1998 were retained for the analysis. Among the analysis sample, 33% were 85 and older, 34% lived alone, and 91% had a family physician. Before their ED visits, 16% of patients attempted to contact their family physicians. More than half of the patients reported having difficulty seeing their physicians for urgent problems, more than 40% had difficulty speaking with their family physicians by telephone, and more than one-third had difficulty booking appointments for new health problems. Within 3 months, 562 patients (28%) had made 894 return visits. Factors associated with a lower return visit rate included age 85 years and older (RR=0.80; 95% CI 0.67 to 0.96), less severe triage score (RR=0.83; 95% CI 0.74 to 0.92), and hospitalization at the index visit (RR=0.76; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.90). Factors that resulted in a higher return visit rate were difficulty booking appointments for new problems with their family physicians (RR=1.19; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.41), having had ED visits within the previous 6 months (RR=1.47; 95% CI 1.28 to 1.68), and higher Charlson comorbidity index scores (RR=1.06; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.11). Having had ED visits within the previous 6 months (OR=2.11; 95% CI 1.27 to 3.49), having a higher Charlson comorbidity index score (OR=1.41; 95% CI 1.19 to 1.68), and having received community care services (OR=3.00; 95% CI 0.95 to 9.53) also increased the odds of return visits.

CONCLUSION

Although most people 75 years and older have a family physician, problems still exist in terms of timely access. Unplanned return visits to the ED are associated with having more comorbidities, having had previous ED visits, having already received community services, and having difficulty booking appointments with family physicians for new problems.

Nursing home-sensitive conditions: analysis of routine health insurance data and modified Delphi analysis of potentially avoidable hospitalizations

Background: Hospitalizations of nursing home residents are associated with various health risks. Previous research indicates that, to some extent, hospitalizations of this vulnerable population may be inappropriate and even avoidable. This study aimed to develop a consensus list of hospital discharge diagnoses considered to be nursing home-sensitive, i.e., avoidable. Methods: The study combined analyses of routine data from six statutory health insurance companies in Germany and a two-stage Delphi panel, enhanced by expert workshop discussions, to identify and corroborate relevant diagnoses. Experts from four different disciplines estimated the proportion of hospitalizations that could potentially have been prevented under optimal conditions.   Results: We analyzed frequencies and costs of data for hospital admissions from 242,236 nursing home residents provided by statutory health insurance companies. We identified 117 hospital discharge diagnoses, which had a frequency of at least 0.1%. We recruited experts (primary care physicians, hospital specialists, nursing home professionals and researchers) to estimate the proportion of potentially avoidable hospitalizations for the 117 diagnoses deemed avoidable in two Delphi rounds (n=107 in Delphi Round 1 and n=96 in Delphi Round 2, effective response rate=91%). A total of 35 diagnoses with high and consistent estimates of the proportion of potentially avoidable hospitalizations were identified as nursing home-sensitive. In an expert workshop (n=16), a further 25 diagnoses were discussed that had not reached the criteria, of which another 23 were consented to be nursing home-sensitive conditions. Extrapolating the frequency and mean costs of these 58 diagnoses to the national German context yielded total potentially avoidable care costs of €768,304,547, associated with 219,955 nursing home-sensitive hospital admissions. Conclusion: A total of 58 nursing home-relevant diagnoses (ICD-10-GM three-digit level) were classified as nursing home-sensitive using an adapted Delphi procedure. Interventions should be developed to avoid hospital admission from nursing homes for these diagnoses.

Decreased patient visits for ankle sprain during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea: A nationwide retrospective study

Social distancing measures including school closure and the cancelation of sports activity were enforced during the early phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic to reduce the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in South Korea. To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the nationwide burden of musculoskeletal injury in 2020, we analyzed data on the number of patient visits for ankle sprain in South Korea. We collected national reimbursement data on the number of patient visits for ankle sprain between August 2010 and July 2020. To quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of reductions in patient visits for ankle sprain, we developed a regression model adjusting for the annual cycle of the patient visit during 2016/17-2018/19. During the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, the overall number of patient visits for ankle sprain dropped by 7.9%. The number of patient visits for ankle sprain substantially reduced by 23.4% among school-aged children (6-19 years) during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea. Our findings suggest that the social distancing measure has had a positive impact on reducing the burden of medical usages for ankle sprain.

Trends of chronic illness in emergency department admissions among elderly adults in a tertiary hospital over ten years

Background

This study aimed to determine to what extent an aging population and shift to chronic illness has contributed to emergency admissions at a tertiary care hospital over ten years.

Methods

This was a retrospective observational study performed using a database of all emergency admissions from the Emergency Department (ED) at a single tertiary hospital in Singapore during a ten-year period (January 1st, 2008 to December 31st, 2017). Emergency admissions were defined as ED visits with inpatient admission as the disposition. This study analyzed the trends of demographics, pre-existing comorbidities, chronic conditions or ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) of all patients who underwent emergency admissions in Singapore General Hospital.

Results

A total of 446,484 emergency records were included. For elderly patients, the proportions of them had pre-existing multimorbidity at the time of undergoing emergency admissions were found to be lower at the end the 10-year study period relative to the beginning of the study period. The proportions of emergency admissions whose ED primary diagnoses were categorized as chronic conditions and certain chronic ACSC including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, diabetes complications, and epilepsy also decreased for elderly patients over the 10-year study period.

Conclusions

In Singapore, despite a rapidly aging population, there have been surprisingly lower proportions of chronic conditions, pre-existing comorbidities, and chronic ACSC among the elderly emergency admissions. This is possibly consistent with an overall improved management of the chronic conditions among the elderly population. Future studies should include similar studies at the national level and comparison with other healthcare settings in different countries.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-021-07309-z.

Nursing home-sensitive conditions: analysis of routine health insurance data and modified Delphi analysis of potentially avoidable hospitalizations

Background: Hospitalizations of nursing home residents are associated with various health risks. Previous research indicates that, to some extent, hospitalizations of this vulnerable population may be inappropriate and even avoidable. This study aimed to develop a consensus list of hospital discharge diagnoses considered to be nursing home-sensitive, i.e., avoidable. Methods: The study combined analyses of routine data from six statutory health insurance companies in Germany and a two-stage Delphi panel, enhanced by expert workshop discussions, to identify and corroborate relevant diagnoses. Experts from four different disciplines estimated the proportion of hospitalizations that could potentially have been prevented under optimal conditions.  Results: We analyzed frequencies and costs of data for hospital admissions from 242,236 nursing home residents provided by statutory health insurance companies. We identified 117 hospital discharge diagnoses, which had a frequency of at least 0.1%. We recruited experts (primary care physicians, hospital specialists, nursing home professionals and researchers) to estimate the proportion of potentially avoidable hospitalizations for the 117 diagnoses deemed avoidable in two Delphi rounds (n=107 in Delphi Round 1 and n=96 in Delphi Round 2, effective response rate=91%). A total of 35 diagnoses with high and consistent estimates of the proportion of potentially avoidable hospitalizations were identified as nursing home-sensitive. In an expert workshop (n=16), a further 25 diagnoses were discussed that had not reached the criteria, of which another 23 were consented to be nursing home-sensitive conditions. Extrapolating the frequency and mean costs of these 58 diagnoses to the national German context yielded total potentially avoidable care costs of €768,304,547, associated with 219,955 nursing home-sensitive hospital admissions. Conclusion: A total of 58 nursing home-relevant diagnoses (ICD-10-GM three-digit level) were classified as nursing home-sensitive using an adapted Delphi procedure. Interventions should be developed to avoid hospital admission from nursing homes for these diagnoses.

Epidemiologic trends in cancer-related emergency department utilization in Korea from 2015 to 2019

It is inevitable for cancer patients to visit the emergency department (ED) for symptoms of cancer itself and various treatment-related complications. As the prevalence of cancer increases along with cancer survival rates, the number of ED visits of cancer patients may increase. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiologic trends and characteristics of cancer-related ED visits. A cross-sectional study was conducted for all ED visits nationwide between 2015 and 2019. The characteristics of cancer- and non-cancer-related ED visits were compared, and the cancer type and primary reason for ED visits were investigated for cancer-related ED visits. The age- and sex-standardized incidence rate per 100,000 population was calculated. Among 44,983,523 ED visits for 5 years, 1,372,119 (3.1%) were cancer-related. Among cancer-related ED visits, 54.8% led to hospitalization including 5.1% in ICU, and 9.5% died in the hospital. The age- and sex-standardized incidence rates of cancer-related ED visits per 100,000 population increased from 521.8 in 2015 to 642.2 in 2019 (p-for-trends, < 0.01), and rates of cancer-related hospital admission via ED were 309.0 in 2015 and 336.6 in 2019 (p-for-trends, 0.75). The most common cancer types were lung cancer (14.7%), liver cancer (13.1%), and colorectal cancer (11.5%). The most common primary reasons of cancer-related ED visits were pneumonia (3.6%), gastroenteritis (2.7%), fever (2.6%), abdominal pain (2.4%), and ileus (2.1%). Cancer-related ED visits accounted for 3.1% of all ED visits, with 1.37 million cases over five years. The incidence rate of cancer-related ED visits has increased year by year, with high hospitalization and mortality rates, and the burden of cancer-related ED visits will continue to increase as the prevalence increases.

Factors Associated With Avoidable Emergency Department Visits in Broward County, Florida

Background

Improper utilization of emergency departments (EDs) in the United States is an issue that places a large burden on the healthcare system. Previous studies have shown that differences in race, gender, and income level have been associated with avoidable ED visits. Broward County, Florida, is diverse with people from many different socioeconomic backgrounds. The objective of this study is to determine the impact that race/ethnicity, gender, and payment methods have on the rates of avoidable ED visits at hospitals in Broward County, Florida.

Methods

This study utilized a dataset from the Broward Regional Health Planning Council that included ED visits in Broward County in 2019. Secondary data analysis was conducted utilizing a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with post-hoc analysis to compare the proportions of non-emergent, emergent primary care-treatable, and emergent preventable ED visits amongst different race/ethnicities, genders, and payment/insurance methods.

Results

Compared to non-Hispanic white patients, non-Hispanic black and Hispanic patients had higher mean rates of non-emergent ED visits. Women had greater mean rates compared to men for non-emergent ED visits; males had higher mean rates than females for emergent primary care-treatable and emergent preventable. Patients covered by Medicaid had greater mean rates of non-emergent and emergent primary care-treatable visits compared to patients using other payment or insurance methods.

Conclusions

This study identified demographics within Broward County associated with avoidable ED visits. To reduce the burden of ED overutilization on the healthcare system, healthcare providers must better educate the at-risk populations about proper ED use. In addition, a comprehensive assessment of social determinants of health in patients overutilizing the ED will allow for better alignment of resources and policy changes to improve healthcare access and community health.

Healthcare and education networks interaction as an indicator of social services stability following natural disasters

Healthcare and education systems have been identified by various national and international organizations as the main pillars of communities' stability. Understanding the correlation between these main social services institutions is critical to determining the tipping point of communities following natural disasters. Despite being defined as social services stability indicators, to date, no studies have been conducted to determine the level of interdependence between schools and hospitals and their collective influence on their recoveries following extreme events. In this study, we devise an agent-based model to investigate the complex interaction between healthcare and education networks and their overall recovery, while considering other physical, social, and economic factors. We employ comprehensive models to simulate the functional processes within each facility and to optimize their recovery trajectories after earthquake occurrence. The results highlight significant interdependencies between hospitals and schools, including direct and indirect relationships, suggesting the need for collective coupling of their recovery to achieve full functionality of either of the two systems following natural disasters. Recognizing this high level of interdependence, we then establish a social services stability index, which can be used by policymakers and community leaders to quantify the impact of healthcare and education services on community resilience and social services stability.

Rebuild doctor-patient trust in medical service delivery in China

Doctor–patient trust is not strong in China, but studies examining this factor remain insufficient. The present study aimed to explore the effect of doctor–patient communication, medical service quality, and service satisfaction on patient trust in doctors. Five hundred sixty-four patients with tuberculosis participated in this cross-sectional study in Dalian, China. They completed questionnaires assessing socio-demographic characteristics, doctor–patient communication, medical service quality, service satisfaction and patient trust in medical staff. A structural equation model was applied to examine the hypotheses, and all the study hypotheses were supported: (1) doctor–patient communication, medical service quality and service satisfaction were positively associated with building doctor–patient trust; (2) service quality positively mediated the relationship between doctor–patient communication and trust; (3) medical service satisfaction positively mediated the relationship between doctor–patient communication and trust; (4) medical service satisfaction positively mediated the relationship between medical service quality and doctor–patient trust; and (5) medical service quality and service satisfaction were the positively sequential mediators between communication and doctor–patient trust. Based on these findings, improvements in doctor–patient communication, medical service quality, and service satisfaction are the important issues contributing to the rebuilding of doctor–patient trust in medical service delivery.

Machine Learning Improves the Identification of Individuals With Higher Morbidity and Avoidable Health Costs After Acute Coronary Syndromes

OBJECTIVES

Traditional risk scores improved the definition of the initial therapeutic strategy in acute coronary syndrome (ACS), but they were not designed for predicting long-term individual risks and costs. In parallel, attempts to directly predict costs from clinical variables in ACS had limited success. Thus, novel approaches to predict cardiovascular risk and health expenditure are urgently needed. Our objectives were to predict the risk of major/minor adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and estimate assistance-related costs.

METHODS

We used a 2-step approach that: (1) predicted outcomes with a common pathophysiological substrate (MACE) by using machine learning (ML) or logistic regression (LR) and compared with existing risk scores; (2) derived costs associated with noncardiovascular deaths, dialysis, ambulatory-care-sensitive-hospitalizations (ACSH), strokes, and MACE. With consecutive ACS individuals (n = 1089) from 2 cohorts, we trained in 80% of the population and tested in 20% using a 4-fold cross-validation framework. The 29-variable model included socioeconomic, clinical/lab, and coronarography variables. Individual costs were estimated based on cause-specific hospitalization from the Brazilian Health Ministry perspective.

RESULTS

After up to 12 years follow-up (mean = 3.3 ± 3.1; MACE = 169), the gradient-boosting machine model was superior to LR and reached an area under the curve (AUROC) of 0.891 [95% CI 0.846-0.921] (test set), outperforming the Syntax Score II (AUROC = 0.635 [95% CI 0.569-0.699]). Individuals classified as high risk (>90th percentile) presented increased HbA1c and LDL-C both at <24 hours post-ACS and 1-year follow-up. High-risk individuals required 33.5% of total costs and showed 4.96-fold (95% CI 3.71-5.48, P < .00001) greater per capita costs compared with low-risk individuals, mostly owing to avoidable costs (ACSH). This 2-step approach was more successful for finding individuals incurring high costs than predicting costs directly from clinical variables.

CONCLUSION

ML methods predicted long-term risks and avoidable costs after ACS.

Profiles of Frequent Geriatric Users of Emergency Departments: A Latent Class Analysis

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Frequent geriatric users of emergency departments (EDs) represent a complex and heterogeneous population. Identifying their specific subgroups would allow the development of interventions better customized to their needs and characteristics. Thus, this study aimed to develop profiles of frequent geriatric ED users using the individual characteristics of patients.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Databases from the Régie de l'assurance maladie du Québec (RAMQ) were utilized. PARTICIPANTSThis study included individuals aged 65 years or older living in the community in the Province of Quebec (Canada), who consulted in an ED at least four times in the year after an ED index date (an ED visit, chosen randomly, during an index period of January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2013) and who had received a diagnosis of ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSCs) in the 2 years preceding the index date.

MEASUREMENTS

A latent class analysis was used to identify subgroups of frequent geriatric ED users according to their individual characteristics, including ACSC type, dementia, mental health disorders, cancer diagnosis, and comorbidity index.

RESULTS

The study cohort consisted of 21,393 frequent geriatric ED users. Four groups of frequent geriatric ED users were identified: people with low comorbidity (39.0%), comprising the individuals with the lowest number of physical and mental health conditions; people with cancer (32.7%); people with pulmonaryand cardiac diseases (18.1%); and people with dementia or mental health disorders (10.2%), composed of individuals with the highest proportion of common and severe mental health disease, as well as dementia. This group accounts for the highest use of overall healthcare services.

CONCLUSION

These profiles will be useful in developing customized interventions addressing the needs of each subgroup of frequent geriatric ED users. More research is needed to bridge the remaining gaps, especially regarding the healthiest frequent geriatric users of EDs.

Blood urea nitrogen to albumin ratio is a predictor of in-hospital mortality in older emergency department patients

INTRODUCTION

In this study, we aimed to evaluate the first measured blood urea nitrogen (BUN)/albumin ratio in the emergency department (ED) as a predictor of in-hospital mortality in older ED patients.

METHODS

This retrospective observational study was conducted at a university hospital ED. Consecutive patients aged 65 and over who visited the ED in a three-month period were included in the study. The BUN, albumin, creatinine, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of patients were recorded. The primary end point of the study was in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 1253 patients were included in the statistical analyses of the study. Non-survivors had increased BUN levels (32.9 (23.3-55.4) vs. 20.2 (15.4-28.3) mg/dL, p < 0.001), decreased albumin levels (3.27 (2.74-3.75) vs. 3.96 (3.52-4.25) g/dL, p < 0.001), and increased BUN/albumin ratios (10.19 (6.56-18.94) vs. 5.21 (3.88-7.72) mg/g, p < 0.001) compared to survivors. An increased BUN/albumin ratio was a powerful predictor of in-hospital mortality with an area under the curve of 0.793 (95% CI: 0.753-0.833). Malignancy (OR: 2.39; 95% CI: 1.59-3.74, p < 0.001), albumin level < 3.5 g/dL (OR: 2.75; 95% CI: 1.74-4.36, p < 0.001), and BUN/albumin ratio > 6.25 (OR: 2.82; 95% CI: 1.22-6.50, p < 0.015) were found to be independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in older ED patients.

CONCLUSION

According to our findings, older patients with a BUN level > 23 mg/dL, an albumin level < 3.5 g/dL, and a BUN/albumin ratio > 6.25 mg/g in the ED have a higher risk of in-hospital mortality. Additionally, the BUN/albumin ratio is a more powerful independent predictor of in-hospital mortality than the BUN level, albumin level, creatinine level, and eGFR in older ED patients.

How Often, Where, and by Which Specialty Do Long-Term Care Home Residents Receive Specialist Physician Care? A Retrospective Cohort Study

This retrospective cohort study describes the rates, location, and determinants of specialist physician visits among 257,216 long-term care (LTC) residents across 648 LTC homes in Ontario, Canada, between 2007 and 2016. Visit rates in the last year of life were calculated for a sub-cohort of residents who died in LTC between 2013 and 2016. Visits were measured per resident-year using physician billings. Over 10 years, the rate of visits to specialists outside the LTC home was consistently higher than within LTC (2.99 vs. 1.55 visits/resident-year). Residents were less likely to receive specialist care if they were older, had dementia, or lived in urban LTC homes. From 12 months before death to the last week of life, rates of specialist visits increased by 246% and 56% inside and outside of LTC, respectively. Improving access to physician specialist care in LTC homes may reduce burdensome transitions and improve resident quality of life.