Timing and periodicity of Phanerozoic marine biodiversity and environmental change

Late Cretaceous ammonoids show that drivers of diversification are regionally heterogeneous

Palaeontologists have long sought to explain the diversification of individual clades to whole biotas at global scales. Advances in our understanding of the spatial distribution of the fossil record through geological time, however, has demonstrated that global trends in biodiversity were a mosaic of regionally heterogeneous diversification processes. Drivers of diversification must presumably have also displayed regional variation to produce the spatial disparities observed in past taxonomic richness. Here, we analyse the fossil record of ammonoids, pelagic shelled cephalopods, through the Late Cretaceous, characterised by some palaeontologists as an interval of biotic decline prior to their total extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary. We regionally subdivide this record to eliminate the impacts of spatial sampling biases and infer regional origination and extinction rates corrected for temporal sampling biases using Bayesian methods. We then model these rates using biotic and abiotic drivers commonly inferred to influence diversification. Ammonoid diversification dynamics and responses to this common set of diversity drivers were regionally heterogeneous, do not support ecological decline, and demonstrate that their global diversification signal is influenced by spatial disparities in sampling effort. These results call into question the feasibility of seeking drivers of diversity at global scales in the fossil record.

Why the Early Paleozoic was intrinsically prone to marine extinction

The geological record of marine animal biodiversity reflects the interplay between changing rates of speciation versus extinction. Compared to mass extinctions, background extinctions have received little attention. To disentangle the different contributions of global climate state, continental configuration, and atmospheric oxygen concentration (pO2) to variations in background extinction rates, we drive an animal physiological model with the environmental outputs from an Earth system model across intervals spanning the past 541 million years. We find that climate and continental configuration combined to make extinction susceptibility an order of magnitude higher during the Early Paleozoic than during the rest of the Phanerozoic, consistent with extinction rates derived from paleontological databases. The high extinction susceptibility arises in the model from the limited geographical range of marine organisms. It stands even when assuming present-day pO2, suggesting that increasing oxygenation through the Paleozoic is not necessary to explain why extinction rates apparently declined with time.

Earth's interior dynamics drive marine fossil diversity cycles of tens of millions of years

The fossil record reveals that biotic diversity has fluctuated quasi-cyclically through geological time. However, the causal mechanisms of biotic diversity cycles remain unexplained. Here, we highlight a common, correlatable 36 ± 1 Myr (million years) cycle in the diversity of marine genera as well as in tectonic, sea-level, and macrostratigraphic data over the past 250 Myr of Earth history. The prominence of the 36 ± 1 Myr cycle in tectonic data favors a common-cause mechanism, wherein geological forcing mechanisms drive patterns in both biological diversity and the preserved rock record. In particular, our results suggest that a 36 ± 1 Myr tectono-eustatically driven sea-level cycle may originate from the interaction between the convecting mantle and subducting slabs, thereby pacing mantle-lithospheric deep-water recycling. The 36 ± 1 Myr tectono-eustatic driver of biodiversity is likely related to cyclic continental inundations, with expanding and contracting ecological niches on shelves and in epeiric seas.

Predicting new mineral occurrences and planetary analog environments via mineral association analysis

The locations of minerals and mineral-forming environments, despite being of great scientific importance and economic interest, are often difficult to predict due to the complex nature of natural systems. In this work, we embrace the complexity and inherent "messiness" of our planet's intertwined geological, chemical, and biological systems by employing machine learning to characterize patterns embedded in the multidimensionality of mineral occurrence and associations. These patterns are a product of, and therefore offer insight into, the Earth's dynamic evolutionary history. Mineral association analysis quantifies high-dimensional multicorrelations in mineral localities across the globe, enabling the identification of previously unknown mineral occurrences, as well as mineral assemblages and their associated paragenetic modes. In this study, we have predicted (i) the previously unknown mineral inventory of the Mars analogue site, Tecopa Basin, (ii) new locations of uranium minerals, particularly those important to understanding the oxidation-hydration history of uraninite, (iii) new deposits of critical minerals, specifically rare earth element (REE)- and Li-bearing phases, and (iv) changes in mineralization and mineral associations through deep time, including a discussion of possible biases in mineralogical data and sampling; furthermore, we have (v) tested and confirmed several of these mineral occurrence predictions in nature, thereby providing ground truth of the predictive method. Mineral association analysis is a predictive method that will enhance our understanding of mineralization and mineralizing environments on Earth, across our solar system, and through deep time.

Life rather than climate influences diversity at scales greater than 40 million years

The diversity of life on Earth is controlled by hierarchical processes that interact over wide ranges of timescales¹. Here, we consider the megaclimate regime² at scales ≥1 million years (Myr). We focus on determining the domains of 'wandering' stochastic Earth system processes ('Court Jester'³) and stabilizing biotic interactions that induce diversity dependence of fluctuations in macroevolutionary rates ('Red Queen'⁴). Using state-of-the-art multiscale Haar and cross-Haar fluctuation analyses, we analysed the global genus-level Phanerozoic marine animal Paleobiology Database record of extinction rates (E), origination rates (O) and diversity (D) as well as sea water palaeotemperatures (T). Over the entire observed range from several million years to several hundred million years, we found that the fluctuations of T, E and O showed time-scaling behaviour. The megaclimate was characterized by positive scaling exponents-it is therefore apparently unstable. E and O are also scaling but with negative exponents-stable behaviour that is biotically mediated. For D, there were two regimes with a crossover at critical timescale [Formula: see text] ≈ 40 Myr. For shorter timescales, D exhibited nearly the same positive scaling as the megaclimate palaeotemperatures, whereas for longer timescales it tracks the scaling of macroevolutionary rates. At scales of at least [Formula: see text] there is onset of diversity dependence of E and O, probably enabled by mixing and synchronization (globalization) of the biota by geodispersal ('Geo-Red Queen').

Climatic and tectonic drivers shaped the tropical distribution of coral reefs

Today, warm-water coral reefs are limited to tropical-to-subtropical latitudes. These diverse ecosystems extended further poleward in the geological past, but the mechanisms driving these past distributions remain uncertain. Here, we test the role of climate and palaeogeography in shaping the distribution of coral reefs over geological timescales. To do so, we combine habitat suitability modelling, Earth System modelling and the ~247-million-year geological record of scleractinian coral reefs. A broader latitudinal distribution of climatically suitable habitat persisted throughout much of the Mesozoic-early Paleogene due to an expanded tropical belt and more equable distribution of shallow marine substrate. The earliest Cretaceous might be an exception, with reduced shallow marine substrate during a 'cold-snap' interval. Climatically suitable habitat area became increasingly skewed towards the tropics from the late Paleogene, likely steepening the latitudinal biodiversity gradient of reef-associated taxa. This was driven by global cooling and increases in tropical shallow marine substrate resulting from the tectonic evolution of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Although our results suggest global warming might permit long-term poleward range expansions, coral reef ecosystems are unlikely to keep pace with the rapid rate of anthropogenic climate change.

Terrestrial forcing of marine biodiversification

The diversification of the three major marine faunas during the Phanerozoic was intimately coupled to the evolution of the biogeochemical cycles of carbon and nutrients via nutrient runoff from land and the diversification of phosphorus-rich phytoplankton. Nutrient input to the oceans has previously been demonstrated to have occurred in response to orogeny and fueling marine diversification. Although volcanism has typically been associated with extinction, the eruption of continental Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) is also a very significant, but previously overlooked, source of phosphorus involved in the diversification of the marine biosphere. We demonstrate that phosphorus input to the oceans peaked repeatedly following the eruption and weathering of LIPs, stimulating the diversification of nutrient-rich calcareous and siliceous phytoplankton at the base of marine food webs that in turn helped fuel diversification at higher levels. These developments were likely furthered by the evolution of terrestrial floras. Results for the Meso-Cenozoic hold implications for the Paleozoic Era. Early-to-middle Paleozoic diversity was, in contrast to the Meso-Cenozoic, limited by nutrient-poor phytoplankton resulting from less frequent tectonism and poorly-developed terrestrial floras. Nutrient runoff and primary productivity during the Permo-Carboniferous likely increased, based on widespread orogeny, the spread of deeper-rooting forests, the fossil record of phytoplankton, and biogeochemical indices. Our results suggest that marine biodiversity on geologic time scales is unbounded (unlimited), provided sufficient habitat, nutrients, and nutrient-rich phytoplankton are also available in optimal amounts and on optimal timescales.

Evolution and extinction can occur rapidly: a modeling approach

Fossil record of Earth describing the last 500 million years is characterized by evolution discontinuity as well as recurring global extinctions of some species and their replacement by new types, the causes of which are still debate. We developed a model of evolutionary self-development of a large ecosystem. This model of biota evolution based on the universal laws of living systems functioning: reproduction, dependence of reproduction efficiency and mortality on biota density, mutational variability in the process of reproduction and selection of the most adapted individuals. We have shown that global extinctions and phases of rapid growth and biodiversity stasis can be a reflection of the emergence of bistability in a self-organizing system, which is the Earth’s biota. Bistability was found to be characteristic only for ecosystems with predominant sexual reproduction. The reason for the transition from one state to another is the selection of the most adapted individuals. That is, we explain the characteristics of the Earth’s fossil record during the last 500 million years by the internal laws of Earth’s ecosystem functioning, which appeared at a certain stage of evolution as a result of the emergence of life forms with an increased adaptive diversification associated with sexual dimorphism.

Paleozoic-Mesozoic Eustatic Changes and Mass Extinctions: New Insights from Event Interpretation

Recent eustatic reconstructions allow for reconsidering the relationships between the fifteen Paleozoic–Mesozoic mass extinctions (mid-Cambrian, end-Ordovician, Llandovery/Wenlock, Late Devonian, Devonian/Carboniferous, mid-Carboniferous, end-Guadalupian, end-Permian, two mid-Triassic, end-Triassic, Early Jurassic, Jurassic/Cretaceous, Late Cretaceous, and end-Cretaceous extinctions) and global sea-level changes. The relationships between eustatic rises/falls and period-long eustatic trends are examined. Many eustatic events at the mass extinction intervals were not anomalous. Nonetheless, the majority of the considered mass extinctions coincided with either interruptions or changes in the ongoing eustatic trends. It cannot be excluded that such interruptions and changes could have facilitated or even triggered biodiversity losses in the marine realm.

Causes of global extinctions in the history of life: facts and hypotheses

Paleontologists define global extinctions on Earth as a loss of about three-quarters of plant and animal species over a relatively short period of time. At least five global extinctions are documented in the Phanerozoic fossil record (~500-million-year period): ~65, 200, 260, 380, and 440 million years ago. In addition, there is evidence of global extinctions in earlier periods of life on Earth - during the Late Cambrian (~500 million years ago) and Ediacaran periods (more than 540 million years ago). There is still no common opinion on the causes of their occurrence. The current study is a systematized review of the data on recorded extinctions of complex life forms on Earth from the moment of their occurrence during the Ediacaran period to the modern period. The review discusses possible causes for mass extinctions in the light of the influence of abiogenic factors, planetary or astronomical, and the consequences of their actions. We evaluate the pros and cons of the hypothesis on the presence of periodicity in the extinction of Phanerozoic marine biota. Strong evidence that allows us to hypothesize that additional mechanisms associated with various internal biotic factors are responsible for the emergence of extinctions in the evolution of complex life forms is discussed. Developing the idea of the internal causes of periodicity and discontinuity in evolution, we propose our own original hypothesis, according to which the bistability phenomenon underlies the complex dynamics of the biota development, which is manifested in the form of global extinctions. The bistability phenomenon arises only in ecosystems with predominant sexual reproduction. Our hypothesis suggests that even in the absence of global abiotic catastrophes, extinctions of biota would occur anyway. However, our hypothesis does not exclude the possibility that in different periods of the Earth's history the biota was subjected to powerful external influences that had a significant impact on its further development, which is reflected in the Earth's fossil record.