Cross-serotype interactions and disease outcome prediction of dengue infections in Vietnam

Dengue

Dengue, caused by four closely related viruses, is a growing global public health concern, with outbreaks capable of overwhelming health-care systems and disrupting economies. Dengue is endemic in more than 100 countries across tropical and subtropical regions worldwide, and the expanding range of the mosquito vector, affected in part by climate change, increases risk in new areas such as Spain, Portugal, and the southern USA, while emerging evidence points to silent epidemics in Africa. Substantial advances in our understanding of the virus, immune responses, and disease progression have been made within the past decade. Novel interventions have emerged, including partially effective vaccines and innovative mosquito control strategies, although a reliable immune correlate of protection remains a challenge for the assessment of vaccines. These developments mark the beginning of a new era in dengue prevention and control, offering promise in addressing this pressing global health issue.

Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil

In 2015, the Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil, leading to widespread outbreaks in Latin America. Following this, many countries in these regions reported a significant drop in the circulation of dengue virus (DENV), which resurged in 2018-2019. We examine age-specific incidence data to investigate changes in DENV epidemiology before and after the emergence of ZIKV. We observe that incidence of DENV was concentrated in younger individuals during resurgence compared to 2013-2015. This trend was more pronounced in Brazilian states that had experienced larger ZIKV outbreaks. Using a mathematical model, we show that ZIKV-induced cross-protection alone, often invoked to explain DENV decline across Latin America, cannot explain the observed age-shift without also assuming some form of disease enhancement. Our results suggest that a sudden accumulation of population-level immunity to ZIKV could suppress DENV and reduce the mean age of DENV incidence via both protective and disease-enhancing interactions.

Multiplex Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction Combined with a Microwell Hybridization Assay Screening for Arbovirus and Parasitic Infections in Febrile Patients Living in Endemic Regions of Colombia

Acute febrile syndrome is a frequent reason for medical consultations in tropical and subtropical countries where the cause could have an infectious origin. Malaria and dengue are the primary etiologies in Colombia. As such, constant epidemiological surveillance and new diagnostic tools are required to identify the causative agents. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate the circulation and differential diagnosis of six pathogens in two regions of Colombia. The results obtained via multiplex reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction combined with a microwell hybridization assay (m-RT-PCR-ELISA) were comparable to those obtained using rapid tests conducted at the time of patient enrollment. Of 155 patients evaluated, 25 (16.1%) and 16 (10.3%) were positive for malaria and dengue, respectively; no samples were positive for any of the other infectious agents tested. In most cases, m-RT-PCR-ELISA confirmed the results previously obtained through rapid testing.

Clinical, Virological, and Immunological Features in Cosmopolitan Genotype DENV-2-Infected Patients during a Large Dengue Outbreak in Sri Lanka in 2017

In 2017, Sri Lanka experienced its largest dengue epidemic and reported severe and unusual presentations of dengue with high morbidity. This outbreak was associated with the reemergence of dengue virus-2 (DENV-2), with the responsible strain identified as a variant of the previously circulating DENV-2 cosmopolitan genotype. In this study, we characterized the DENV-2 cosmopolitan genotype from patients during this epidemic. Also, we identified host factors that contributed to the severity of dengue infection in patients infected with this particular virus. Ninety-one acute serum samples from patients at the National Hospital in Kandy were randomly selected. Of these, 40.2% and 48.9% were positive for dengue IgM and IgG, respectively. NS1 antigen levels were significantly higher in primary infections. The severe dengue (SD) and dengue with warning signs (DWWS) groups exhibited significantly higher viral genome and infectivity titers than the dengue without warning signs (DWoWS) group. The highest viremia level was observed in SD patients. As for host cytokine response, interferon α (IFN-α) levels were significantly higher in the DWoWS group than in the DWWS and SD groups, whereas interleukin (IL)-12p40 and tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) levels in SD patients were significantly higher than in the other two groups. The TNF-α, IL-4, and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 concentrations were positively correlated with NS1 antigen levels. From whole-genome analysis, NS4 had the highest frequency of amino acid variants, followed by the E gene. Our study suggests that viremia levels and immune responses contributed to SD outcomes, and these findings may help in identifying an effective therapeutic strategy against SD infection.

Insights into dengue immunity from vaccine trials

The quest for an effective dengue vaccine has culminated in two approved vaccines and another that has completed phase 3 clinical trials. However, shortcomings exist in each, suggesting that the knowledge on dengue immunity used to develop these vaccines was incomplete. Vaccine trial findings could refine our understanding of dengue immunity, because these are experimentally derived, placebo-controlled data. Results from these trials suggest that neutralizing antibody titers alone are insufficient to inform protection against symptomatic infection, implicating a role for cellular immunity in protection. These findings have relevance for both future dengue vaccine development and application of current vaccines for maximal public health benefit.

Molecular Characterization of Dengue Virus Strains from the 2019-2020 Epidemic in Hanoi, Vietnam

Dengue virus (DENV), which has circulated in Vietnam for several decades, has multiple serotypes and genotypes. A 2019 dengue outbreak resulted in a larger number of cases than any other outbreak. We conducted a molecular characterization using samples collected in 2019-2020 from dengue patients in Hanoi and nearby cities located in northern Vietnam. The circulating serotypes were DENV-1 (25%, n = 22) and DENV-2 (73%, n = 64). Phylogenetic analyses revealed that all DENV-1 (n = 13) were genotype I and clustered to local strains circulating during the previous outbreak in the 2017, whereas DENV-2 consisted of two genotypes: Asian-I (n = 5), related to local strains from 2006-2022, and cosmopolitan (n = 18), the predominant genotype in this epidemic. The current cosmopolitan virus was identified as having an Asian-Pacific lineage. The virus was closely related to strains in other recent outbreaks in Southeast Asian countries and China. Multiple introductions occurred in 2016-2017, which were possibly from maritime Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia), mainland Southeast Asia (Cambodia and Thailand), or China, rather than from an expansion of localized Vietnamese cosmopolitan strains that were previously detected in the 2000s. We also analyzed the genetic relationship between Vietnam's cosmopolitan strain and recent global strains reported from Asia, Oceania, Africa, and South America. This analysis revealed that viruses of Asian-Pacific lineage are not restricted to Asia but have spread to Peru and Brazil in South America.

Detecting dengue fever in children using online Rasch analysis to develop algorithms for parents: An APP development and usability study

BACKGROUND

Dengue fever (DF) is a significant public health concern in Asia. However, detecting the disease using traditional dichotomous criteria (i.e., absent vs present) can be extremely difficult. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), due to their use of a large number of parameters for modeling, have shown the potential to improve prediction accuracy (ACC). To date, there has been no research conducted to understand item features and responses using online Rasch analysis. To verify the hypothesis that a combination of CNN, ANN, K-nearest-neighbor algorithm (KNN), and logistic regression (LR) can improve the ACC of DF prediction for children, further research is required.

METHODS

We extracted 19 feature variables related to DF symptoms from 177 pediatric patients, of whom 69 were diagnosed with DF. Using the RaschOnline technique for Rasch analysis, we examined 11 variables for their statistical significance in predicting the risk of DF. Based on 2 sets of data, 1 for training (80%) and the other for testing (20%), we calculated the prediction ACC by comparing the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) between DF + and DF- in both sets. In the training set, we compared 2 scenarios: the combined scheme and individual algorithms.

RESULTS

Our findings indicate that visual displays of DF data are easily interpreted using Rasch analysis; the k-nearest neighbors algorithm has a lower AUC (<0.50); LR has a relatively higher AUC (0.70); all 3 algorithms have an almost equal AUC (=0.68), which is smaller than the individual algorithms of Naive Bayes, LR in raw data, and Naive Bayes in normalized data; and we developed an app to assist parents in detecting DF in children during the dengue season.

CONCLUSION

The development of an LR-based APP for the detection of DF in children has been completed. To help patients, family members, and clinicians differentiate DF from other febrile illnesses at an early stage, an 11-item model is proposed for developing the APP.

Age distribution of dengue cases in southern Vietnam from 2000 to 2015

BACKGROUND

Dengue is the most common vector-borne viral infection. In recent times, an increase in the age of cases with clinical dengue has been reported in the national surveillance system and published literature of Vietnam. This change not only alter the risk of transmission and disease burden in different populations but also will impact for prevention and control strategies. A retrospective study was conducted from 2000 to 2015 in 19 provinces of southern Vietnam to describe the changes in age distribution of dengue cases and circulating serotypes.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The study is a time trend analysis of the data aggregated from the database of dengue surveillance system. The database consisted of clinically diagnosed and laboratory-confirmed cases of dengue in southern Vietnam from 2000 to 2015. In the study period, the mean age of dengue cases increased from 12.2 ± 8.8 years old (y/o) to 16.8 ± 13.3 y/o between 2000 and 2015. Majority of severe cases were observed in the age group of 5-9 y/o and 10-14 y/o. Overall, the mortality and case fatality rates (CFR) were lowest during 2010 to 2015, and all four serotypes of dengue were observed.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

With the exception of severe form, the age distribution of clinical cases of dengue appears to be shifting towards older age groups. An increase in the mean age of clinical cases of dengue has been observed in southern Vietnam over the past decade, and the highest incidence was observed in age group of 5-14 y/o. All serotypes of dengue were in circulation.

The Immunogenicity of DENV1-4 ED3s Strongly Differ despite Their Almost Identical Three-Dimensional Structures and High Sequence Similarities

The development of a dengue (DENV) vaccine remains challenging due to the heteroserotypic infection, which can result in a potentially deadly hemorrhagic fever or dengue shock syndrome, and only a tetravalent vaccine can overcome this issue. Here, we report the immunogenicity of DENV envelope protein domain 3 (ED3) from all four DENV serotypes (DENV1-4) in Swiss albino and BALB/c mice models. Firstly, we observed that despite having very similar sequences and structures, both the humoral and cellular immunogenicity of ED3s varied significantly, with strength ranging from DENV2 ED3 (2ED3)~3ED3 > 1ED3 > 4ED3, which was assessed through anti-ED3 IgG titers, and DENV1 ED3 (1ED3) > 2ED3~3ED3 > 4ED3 as determined by monitoring T-cell memory (CD44+CD62L+ T cells with IL-4 and IFN-γ expression). Secondly, anti-1ED3 sera cross-reacted with 2ED3 and 3ED3; anti-2ED3 and anti-3ED3 sera cross-reacted with each other, but anti-4ED3 was completely serotype-specific. The lack of reciprocity of anti-1ED3's cross-reaction was unanticipated. Such disparity in the ED3 responses and cross-reaction might underlie the appearance of hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. Hence, the development of an ED3-based tetravalent subunit vaccine would require understanding the aforementioned disparities.

Increasing Dengue Burden and Severe Dengue Risk in Bangladesh: An Overview

Dengue is a prevalent and rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans. The geographic range of dengue is expanding, and much like in many other tropical regions of the world, dengue has become a major public health issue in Bangladesh. Until a large epidemic dengue outbreak in 2000, sporadic outbreaks have occurred in Bangladesh since 1964. After 2000, varying intensities of dengue activity were observed each year until 2018. However, in 2019, Bangladesh experienced the largest dengue epidemic in its history, with 101,354 dengue cases and 164 dengue-related deaths. Notably, this outbreak occurred in many regions that were previously considered free of the disease. As of 10 December 2022, a total of 60,078 dengue cases and 266 dengue-related deaths were reported in Bangladesh, with the 2022 outbreak being the second largest since 2000. There is an increased genetic diversity of the dengue virus (DENV) in Bangladesh and all four DENV serotypes are prevalent and co-circulating, which increases the risk for severe dengue owing to the antibody-dependent enhancement effect. Vector control remains the mainstay of dengue outbreak prevention; however, the vector control programs adopted in Bangladesh seem inadequate, requiring improved vector control strategies. In this review, we provide an overview of the epidemiology of DENV infection and the risks for a severe dengue outbreak in Bangladesh. Additionally, we discuss different dengue vector control strategies, from which the most suitable and effective measures can be applied in the context of Bangladesh for tackling future dengue epidemics.

Epidemiology of dengue reported in the World Health Organization's Western Pacific Region, 2013-2019

The global burden of dengue, an emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne disease, increased during the 20-year period ending in 2019, with approximately 70% of cases estimated to have been in Asia. This report describes the epidemiology of dengue in the World Health Organization's Western Pacific Region during 2013-2019 using regional surveillance data reported from indicator-based surveillance systems from countries and areas in the Region, supplemented by publicly available dengue outbreak situation reports. The total reported annual number of dengue cases in the Region increased from 430 023 in 2013 to 1 050 285 in 2019, surpassing 1 million cases for the first time in 2019. The reported case-fatality ratio ranged from 0.19% (724/376 972 in 2014 and 2030/1 050 285 in 2019) to 0.30% (1380/458 843 in 2016). The introduction or reintroduction of serotypes to specific areas caused several outbreaks and rare occurrences of local transmission in places where dengue was not previously reported. This report reinforces the increased importance of dengue surveillance systems in monitoring dengue across the Region.

Novel Antiviral Efficacy of Hedyotis diffusa and Artemisia capillaris Extracts against Dengue Virus, Japanese Encephalitis Virus, and Zika Virus Infection and Immunoregulatory Cytokine Signatures

Currently, there are no specific therapeutics for flavivirus infections, including dengue virus (DENV) and Zika virus (ZIKV). In this study, we evaluated extracts from the plants Hedyotis diffusa (HD) and Artemisia capillaris (AC) to determine the antiviral activity against DENV, ZIKV, and Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV). HD and AC demonstrated inhibitory activity against JEV, ZIKV, and DENV replication and reduced viral RNA levels in a dose-responsive manner, with non-cytotoxic concentration ranging from 0.1 to 10 mg/mL. HD and AC had low cytotoxicity to Vero cells, with CC₅₀ values of 33.7 ± 1.6 and 30.3 ± 1.7 mg/mL (mean ± SD), respectively. The anti-flavivirus activity of HD and AC was also consistent in human cell lines, including human glioblastoma (T98G), human chronic myeloid leukemia (K562), and human embryonic kidney (HEK-293T) cells. Viral-infected, HD-treated cells demonstrated downregulation of cytokines including CCR1, CCL26, CCL15, CCL5, IL21, and IL17C. In contrast, CCR1, CCL26, and AIMP1 were elevated following AC treatment in viral-infected cells. Overall, HD and AC plant extracts demonstrated flavivirus replication inhibitory activity, and together with immunoregulatory cytokine signatures, these results suggest that HD and AC possess bioactive compounds that may further be refined as promising candidates for clinical applications.

The association between diabetes and obesity with Dengue infections

Dengue, an arboviral disease is a global threat to public health as the number of Dengue cases increases through the decades and this trend is predicted to continue. Non-communicable diseases such as diabetes and obesity are also on an upward trend. Moreover, past clinical studies have shown comorbidities worsen the clinical manifestation of especially Severe Dengue. However, discussion regarding the underlying mechanisms regarding the association between these comorbidities and dengue are lacking. The hallmark of Severe Dengue is plasma leakage which is due to several factors including presence of pro-inflammatory cytokines and dysregulation of endothelial barrier protein expression. The key factors of diabetes affecting endothelial functions are Th1 skewed responses and junctional-related proteins expression. Additionally, obesity alters the lipid metabolism and immune response causing increased viral replication and inflammation. The similarity between diabetes and obesity individuals is in having chronic inflammation resulting in endothelial dysfunction. This review outlines the roles of diabetes and obesity in severe dengue and gives some insights into the plausible mechanisms of comorbidities in Severe Dengue.

Smartphone multiplex microcapillary diagnostics using Cygnus: Development and evaluation of rapid serotype-specific NS1 detection with dengue patient samples

Laboratory diagnosis of dengue virus (DENV) infection including DENV serotyping requires skilled labor and well-equipped settings. DENV NS1 lateral flow rapid test (LFT) provides simplicity but lacks ability to identify serotype. A simple, economical, point-of-care device for serotyping is still needed. We present a gravity driven, smartphone compatible, microfluidic device using microcapillary film (MCF) to perform multiplex serotype-specific immunoassay detection of dengue virus NS1. A novel device–termed Cygnus–with a stackable design allows analysis of 1 to 12 samples in parallel in 40 minutes. A sandwich enzyme immunoassay was developed to specifically detect NS1 of all four DENV serotypes in one 60-μl plasma sample. This test aims to bridge the gap between rapid LFT and laboratory microplate ELISAs in terms of sensitivity, usability, accessibility and speed. The Cygnus NS1 assay was evaluated with retrospective undiluted plasma samples from 205 DENV infected patients alongside 50 febrile illness negative controls. Against the gold standard RT-PCR, clinical sensitivity for Cygnus was 82% in overall (with 78, 78, 80 and 76% for DENV1-4, respectively), comparable to an in-house serotyping NS1 microplate ELISA (82% vs 83%) but superior to commercial NS1-LFT (82% vs 74%). Specificity of the Cygnus device was 86%, lower than that of NS1-microplate ELISA and NS1-LFT (100% and 98%, respectively). For Cygnus positive samples, identification of DENV serotypes DENV2-4 matched those by RT-PCR by 100%, but for DENV1 capillaries false positives were seen, suggesting an improved DENV1 capture antibody is needed to increase specificity. Overall performance of Cygnus showed substantial agreement to NS1-microplate ELISA (κ = 0.68, 95%CI 0.58–0.77) and NS1-LFT (κ = 0.71, 95%CI 0.63–0.80). Although further refinement for DENV-1 NS1 detection is needed, the advantages of multiplexing and rapid processing time, this Cygnus device could deliver point-of-care NS1 antigen testing including serotyping for timely DENV diagnosis for epidemic surveillance and outbreak prediction.

Diagnosis of the important mosquito-transmitted dengue virus (DENV) requires laboratory assays to detect viral genome (RT-PCR), viral NS1 protein (immunoassay) or DENV specific antibodies. Current point-of-care NS1 tests cannot distinguish serotype, so laboratory tests are still essential to determine which of 4 DENV serotypes is present. Here we present a rapid serotype-specific NS1 test in a portable microfluidic format. Ten parallel 0.2 mm tubes inside a flat plastic ribbon perform multiplex NS1 immunoassays. A simple cassette delivers sample and reagents sequentially through the microcapillaries by gravity. By stacking cassettes, 12 tests could be performed in under 40 minutes, with results recorded by smartphone. When evaluated with 205 patients plus 50 control samples, and results compared to conventional RT-PCR, the sensitivity for DENV1 to 4 was 78%, 78%, 80%, and 76%, respectively, with specificity of 100% for DENV2-4. DENV1 showed some false positives due to cross-reactivity of the capture antibody. Serotyping performance with MCF-Cygnus devices showed substantial agreement to the serotyping-NS1 microplate ELISA. Therefore, these simple and portable microcapillary immunoassay devices could support dengue NS1 serotyping with potential benefits for near-patient diagnosis, real-time epidemic surveillance and outbreak mapping.

The Distribution of Dengue Virus Serotype in Quang Nam Province (Vietnam) during the Outbreak in 2018

Objectives: Quang Nam province in the Centre of Vietnam has faced an outbreak of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in 2018. Although DHF is a recurrent disease in this area, no epidemiological and microbiological reports on dengue virus serotypes have been conducted mainly due to lack of facilities for such a kind of advanced surveillance. The aim of this study was to detect different dengue virus serotypes in patients' blood samples. Design and Methods: Suspected cases living in Quang Nam province (Vietnam) and presenting clinical and hematological signs of dengue hemorrhagic fever were included in the study. The screening was performed, and the results were compared by using two methodologies: RT real-time PCR (RT-rPCR) and the Dengue NS1 rapid test. Results: From December 2018 to February 2019, looking both at RT-rPCR [+] and NS1 [+] methodologies, a total of 488 patients were screened and 336 were positive for dengue virus detection (74 children and 262 adults); 273 of these patients (81.3%) underwent viral serotype identification as follows: 12.82% (35/273) D1 serotype, 17.95% (49/273) D2, 0.37% (1/273) D3, 68.50 (187/283) D4, and 0.37% (1/273) D2+D4 serotypes. The RT-rPCR outcomes showed higher sensitivity during the first three days of infection compared to NS1 (92.3% vs. 89.7%). The NS1 increased sensitivity after the first 3 days whilst the RT-rPCR decreased. Conclusions: Advanced surveillance with dengue virus serotypes identification, if performed routinely, may help to predict and prevent further DHF epidemics based on the exposure of the different serotypes during different periods that lead to the intensification of disease severity as a consequence of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE).

Mammalian animal models for dengue virus infection: a recent overview

Dengue, a rapidly spreading mosquito-borne human viral disease caused by dengue virus (DENV), is a public health concern in tropical and subtropical areas due to its expanding geographical range. DENV can cause a wide spectrum of illnesses in humans, ranging from asymptomatic infection or mild dengue fever (DF) to life-threatening dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Dengue is caused by four DENV serotypes; however, dengue pathogenesis is complex and poorly understood. Establishing a useful animal model that can exhibit dengue-fever-like signs similar to those in humans is essential to improve our understanding of the host response and pathogenesis of DENV. Although several animal models, including mouse models, non-human primate models, and a recently reported tree shrew model, have been investigated for DENV infection, animal models with clinical signs that are similar to those of DF in humans have not yet been established. Although animal models are essential for understanding the pathogenesis of DENV infection and for drug and vaccine development, each animal model has its own strengths and limitations. Therefore, in this review, we provide a recent overview of animal models for DENV infection and pathogenesis, focusing on studies of the antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) effect in animal models.

Dengue models based on machine learning techniques: A systematic literature review

BACKGROUND

Dengue modeling is a research topic that has increased in recent years. Early prediction and decision-making are key factors to control dengue. This Systematic Literature Review (SLR) analyzes three modeling approaches of dengue: diagnostic, epidemic, intervention. These approaches require models of prediction, prescription and optimization. This SLR establishes the state-of-the-art in dengue modeling, using machine learning, in the last years.

METHODS

Several databases were selected to search the articles. The selection was made based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology. Sixty-four articles were obtained and analyzed to describe their strengths and limitations. Finally, challenges and opportunities for research on machine-learning for dengue modeling were identified.

RESULTS

Logistic regression was the most used modeling approach for the diagnosis of dengue (59.1%). The analysis of the epidemic approach showed that linear regression (17.4%) is the most used technique within the spatial analysis. Finally, the most used intervention modeling is General Linear Model with 70%.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that cause-effect models may improve diagnosis and understanding of dengue. Models that manage uncertainty can also be helpful, because of low data-quality in healthcare. Finally, decentralization of data, using federated learning, may decrease computational costs and allow model building without compromising data security.

Recent Insights Into the Molecular Mechanism of Toll-Like Receptor Response to Dengue Virus Infection

Dengue is the most prevalent and rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease caused by dengue virus (DENV). Recently, DENV has been affecting humans within an expanding geographic range due to the warming of the earth. Innate immune responses play a significant role in antiviral defense, and Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are key regulators of innate immunity. Therefore, a detailed understanding of TLR and DENV interactions is important for devising therapeutic and preventive strategies. Several studies have indicated the ability of DENV to modulate the TLR signaling pathway and host immune response. Vaccination is considered one of the most successful medical interventions for preventing viral infections. However, only a partially protective dengue vaccine, the first licensed dengue vaccine CYD-TDV, is available in some dengue-endemic countries to protect against DENV infection. Therefore, the development of a fully protective, durable, and safe DENV vaccine is a priority for global health. Here, we demonstrate the progress made in our understanding of the host response to DENV infection, with a particular focus on TLR response and how DENV avoids the response toward establishing infection. We also discuss dengue vaccine candidates in late-stage development and the issues that must be overcome to enable their success.

Hyperendemicity associated with increased dengue burden

Over 105 million dengue infections are estimated to occur annually. Understanding the disease dynamics of dengue is often difficult due to multiple strains circulating within a population. Interactions between dengue serotype dynamics may result in complex cross-immunity dynamics at the population level and create difficulties in terms of formulating intervention strategies for the disease. In this study, a nationally representative 16-year time series with over 43 000 serotyped dengue infections was used to infer the long-run effects of between and within strain interactions and their impacts on past outbreaks. We used a novel identification strategy incorporating sign-identified Bayesian vector autoregressions, using structural impulse responses, historical decompositions and counterfactual analysis to conduct inference on dengue dynamics post-estimation. We found that on the population level: (i) across-serotype interactions on the population level were highly persistent, with a one time increase in any other serotype associated with long run decreases in the serotype of interest (range: 0.5–2.5 years) and (ii) over 38.7% of dengue cases of any serotype were associated with across-serotype interactions. The findings in this paper will substantially impact public health policy interventions with respect to dengue.

Optimal Control of Dengue Transmission with Vaccination

Dengue disease is caused by four serotypes of the dengue virus: DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3, and DEN-4. The chimeric yellow fever dengue tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV) is a vaccine currently used in Thailand. This research investigates what the optimal control is when only individuals having documented past dengue infection history are vaccinated. This is the present practice in Thailand and is the latest recommendation of the WHO. The model used is the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model in series configuration for the human population and the Susceptible-Infected (SI) model for the vector population. Both dynamical models for the two populations were recast as optimal control problems with two optimal control parameters. The analysis showed that the equilibrium states were locally asymptotically stable. The numerical solution of the control systems and conclusions are presented.

Efficacy profile of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine revealed by Bayesian survival analysis of individual-level phase III data

Background:

Sanofi-Pasteur’s CYD-TDV is the only licensed dengue vaccine. Two phase three trials showed higher efficacy in seropositive than seronegative recipients. Hospital follow-up revealed increased hospitalisation in 2–5- year-old vaccinees, where serostatus and age effects were unresolved.

Methods:

We fit a survival model to individual-level data from both trials, including year 1 of hospital follow-up. We determine efficacy by age, serostatus, serotype and severity, and examine efficacy duration and vaccine action mechanism.

Results:

Our modelling indicates that vaccine-induced immunity is long-lived in seropositive recipients, and therefore that vaccinating seropositives gives higher protection than two natural infections. Long-term increased hospitalisation risk outweighs short-lived immunity in seronegatives. Independently of serostatus, transient immunity increases with age, and is highest against serotype 4. Benefit is higher in seropositives, and risk enhancement is greater in seronegatives, against hospitalised disease than against febrile disease.

Conclusions:

Our results support vaccinating seropositives only. Rapid diagnostic tests would enable viable ‘screen-then-vaccinate’ programs. Since CYD-TDV acts as a silent infection, long-term safety of other vaccine candidates must be closely monitored.

Funding:

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Royal Society.

Clinical trial number:

NCT01373281 and NCT01374516.

Evolution, heterogeneity and global dispersal of cosmopolitan genotype of Dengue virus type 2

Dengue virus type 2 (DENV-2) contributes substantially to the dengue burden and dengue-related mortality in the tropics and sub-tropics. DENV-2 includes six genotypes, among which cosmopolitan genotype is the most widespread. The present study investigated the evolution, intra-genotype heterogeneity and dispersal of cosmopolitan genotype to understand unique genetic characteristics that have shaped the molecular epidemiology and distribution of cosmopolitan lineages. The spatial analysis demonstrated a wide geo-distribution of cosmopolitan genotype through an extensive inter-continental network, anchored in Southeast Asia and Indian sub-continent. Intra-genotype analyses using 3367 envelope gene sequences revealed six distinct lineages within the cosmopolitan genotype, namely the Indian sub-continent lineage and five other lineages. Indian sub-continent lineage was the most diverged among six lineages and has almost reached the nucleotide divergence threshold of 6% within E gene to qualify as a separate genotype. Genome wide amino acid signatures and selection pressure analyses further suggested differences in evolutionary characteristics between the Indian sub-continent lineage and other lineages. The present study narrates a comprehensive genomic analysis of cosmopolitan genotype and presents notable genetic characteristics that occurred during its evolution and global expansion. Whether those characteristics conferred a fitness advantage to cosmopolitan genotype in different geographies warrant further investigations.

Natural Products with Potential to Treat RNA Virus Pathogens Including SARS-CoV-2

Three families of RNA viruses, the Coronaviridae, Flaviviridae, and Filoviridae, collectively have great potential to cause epidemic disease in human populations. The current SARS-CoV-2 (Coronaviridae) responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the lack of effective medications currently available to treat these classes of viral pathogens. Similarly, the Flaviviridae, which includes such viruses as Dengue, West Nile, and Zika, and the Filoviridae, with the Ebola-type viruses, as examples, all lack effective therapeutics. In this review, we present fundamental information concerning the biology of these three virus families, including their genomic makeup, mode of infection of human cells, and key proteins that may offer targeted therapies. Further, we present the natural products and their derivatives that have documented activities to these viral and host proteins, offering hope for future mechanism-based antiviral therapeutics. By arranging these potential protein targets and their natural product inhibitors by target type across these three families of virus, new insights are developed, and crossover treatment strategies are suggested. Hence, natural products, as is the case for other therapeutic areas, continue to be a promising source of structurally diverse new anti-RNA virus therapeutics.

Risk of dengue virus infection according to serostatus in individuals from dengue endemic areas of Mexico

The variability in the host immune response directed against dengue virus (DENV) has demonstrated the need to understand the immune response associated with protection in incident infection. The objective was to estimate the association between serostatus and the risk of incident DENV infection. We used a prospective study from 2014 to 2016 in the localities of Axochiapan and Tepalcingo, Morelos, Mexico. We recruited 966 participants, of which, according to their infection history registered were categorized in four groups. To accomplish the objectives of this study, we selected to 400 participants older than 5 years of age were followed for 2.5 years. Blood samples were taken every 6 months to measure serological status and infection by ELISA. In individuals with at least two previous infections the risk of new infection was lower compared to a seronegative group (hazard ratio adjusted 0.49, 95% CI 0.24-0.98), adjusted for age and locality. Therefore, individuals who have been exposed two times or more to a DENV infection have a lower risk of re-infection, thus showing the role of cross-immunity and its association with protection.

Predicting dengue outbreaks at neighbourhood level using human mobility in urban areas

Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by the Aedes genus mosquito. It causes financial burdens on public health systems and considerable morbidity and mortality. Tropical regions in the Americas and Asia are the areas most affected by the virus. Fortaleza is a city with approximately 2.6 million inhabitants in northeastern Brazil that, during the recent decades, has been suffering from endemic dengue transmission, interspersed with larger epidemics. The objective of this paper is to study the impact of human mobility in urban areas on the spread of the dengue virus, and to test whether human mobility data can be used to improve predictions of dengue virus transmission at the neighbourhood level. We present two distinct forecasting systems for dengue transmission in Fortaleza: the first using artificial neural network methods and the second developed using a mechanistic model of disease transmission. We then present enhanced versions of the two forecasting systems that incorporate bus transportation data cataloguing movement among 119 neighbourhoods in Fortaleza. Each forecasting system was used to perform retrospective forecasts for historical dengue outbreaks from 2007 to 2015. Results show that both artificial neural networks and mechanistic models can accurately forecast dengue cases, and that the inclusion of human mobility data substantially improves the performance of both forecasting systems. While the mechanistic models perform better in capturing seasons with large-scale outbreaks, the neural networks more accurately forecast outbreak peak timing, peak intensity and annual dengue time series. These results have two practical implications: they support the creation of public policies from the use of the models created here to combat the disease and help to understand the impact of urban mobility on the epidemic in large cities.

Protective and enhancing interactions among dengue viruses 1-4 and Zika virus

Dengue viruses 1-4 (DENV 1-4) and Zika virus (ZIKV) are closely related flaviviruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes that co-circulate in Asia, the Americas, Africa, and Oceania. Here, we review recent and historical literature on in vitro experiments, animal models, and clinical and epidemiological studies to describe how the sequence of DENV 1-4 and ZIKV infections modulates subsequent dengue and Zika disease outcome. Overall, we find these interactions are asymmetric. Immunity from a prior DENV infection or a prior ZIKV infection can enhance future severe dengue disease for some DENV serotypes while protecting against other serotypes. Further, prior DENV immunity has not been shown to enhance future uncomplicated or severe Zika and instead appears to be protective. Interestingly, secondary ZIKV infection induces type-specific ZIKV immunity but only generates weakly cross-neutralizing anti-DENV/ZIKV immunity, consistent with risk of future dengue disease. In contrast, secondary DENV infection induces strongly cross-neutralizing antibodies that protect against subsequent severe dengue disease. These immunologic interactions may be explained by differences in virion structure between DENV 1-4 and ZIKV, which modulate thermostability, susceptibility to neutralization, and cell infectivity. Overall, these observations are important for the understanding and prediction of epidemics and the development and evaluation of dengue and Zika vaccines.

Predominant secondary dengue infection among Vietnamese adults mostly without warning signs and severe disease

BACKGROUND

The morbidity in dengue fever is dependent on the dengue virus (DENV) serotypes, the patient age, predisposing immunogenic markers and the frequency of primary and secondary infections. This study aims to distinguish acute primary from secondary dengue infections of Vietnamese adults and to assess the association of viremia and anti-dengue immunoglobulin levels with clinical outcomes.

STUDY DESIGN

Viral RNA, dengue serotypes and levels of anti-dengue IgM and IgG of hospitalized adult cases were determined in EDTA-plasma samples prospectively collected during three consecutive years of dengue infection in Hanoi. Patients admitted to hospital within 7 days of their 1st reported fever were included. Primary infections were anti-dengue IgG enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) negative on both day of hospital entry (day 0) and day two or three of hospitalization (day 2 or 3) with a positive anti-dengue IgM on either day 0 or day 2 or 3 hospitalization. The secondary infections were anti-dengue IgG ELISA positive on both day 0 and day 2 or 3 with positive anti-dengue IgM ELISA on either day 0 or day 2 or 3.

RESULTS

The hospitalized dengue fever cases between October 2016 and March 2019 were predominantly secondary infections (74%, 68% and 77%, respectively) with DENV-1 (60% and 65%) and DENV-2 (22% and 26%) serotypes determined in the latter two years. The viremia in primary infection was significantly higher than that in secondary infection (P < 0.01) and positively correlated with the days of hospital stay. In secondary infections, platelet counts were lower than in primary infections (P = 0.04) and IgG levels in secondary infection negatively correlated with platelet counts (Spearman's r = -0.22, P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate high rates of secondary infection with DENV1 and DENV2 serotypes. Anti-dengue immunoglobulins negatively correlate with hospital stay and platelet counts with few warning signs or severe disease. Further investigations of specific antibodies in adults which predict auto-inflammatory activity after the recovery from dengue infection are warranted.

Zika virus infection enhances future risk of severe dengue disease

The Zika pandemic sparked intense interest in whether immune interactions among dengue virus serotypes 1 to 4 (DENV1 to -4) extend to the closely related Zika virus (ZIKV). We investigated prospective pediatric cohorts in Nicaragua that experienced sequential DENV1 to -3 (2004 to 2015), Zika (2016 to 2017), and DENV2 (2018 to 2020) epidemics. Risk of symptomatic DENV2 infection and severe disease was elevated by one prior ZIKV infection, one prior DENV infection, or one prior DENV infection followed by one ZIKV infection, compared with being flavivirus-naïve. By contrast, multiple prior DENV infections reduced dengue risk. Further, although high preexisting anti-DENV antibody titers protected against DENV1, DENV3, and ZIKV disease, intermediate titers induced by previous ZIKV or DENV infection enhanced future risk of DENV2 disease and severity, as well as DENV3 severity. The observation that prior ZIKV infection can modulate dengue disease severity like a DENV serotype poses challenges to development of dengue and Zika vaccines.

Serotype-specific detection of dengue viruses in a nonstructural protein 1-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay validated with a multi-national cohort

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus (DENV) infections pose one of the largest global barriers to human health. The four serotypes (DENV 1-4) present different symptoms and influence immune response to subsequent DENV infections, rendering surveillance, risk assessments, and disease control particularly challenging. Early diagnosis and appropriate clinical management is critical and can be achieved by detecting DENV nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) in serum during the acute phase. However, few NS1-based tests have been developed that are capable of differentiating DENV serotypes and none are currently commercially available.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS

We developed an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to distinguish DENV-1-4 NS1 using serotype-specific pairs of monoclonal antibodies. A total of 1,046 antibodies were harvested from DENV-immunized mice and screened for antigen binding affinity. ELISA clinical performance was evaluated using 408 polymerase chain reaction-confirmed dengue samples obtained from patients in Brazil, Honduras, and India. The overall sensitivity of the test for pan-DENV was 79.66% (325/408), and the sensitivities for DENV-1-4 serotyping were 79.1% (38/48), 80.41% (78/97), 100% (45/45), and 79.6% (98/123), respectively. Specificity reached 94.07-100%.

SIGNIFICANCE

Our study demonstrates a robust antibody screening strategy that enabled the development of a serotype NS1-based ELISA with maximized specific and sensitive antigen binding. This sensitive and specific assay also utilized the most expansive cohort to date, and of which about half are from Latin America, a geographic region severely underrepresented in previous similar studies. This ELISA test offers potential enhanced diagnostics during the acute phase of infection to help guide patient care and disease control. These results indicate that this ELISA is a promising aid in early DENV-1-4 diagnosis and surveillance in regions of endemicity in addition to offer convenient monitoring for future vaccine interventions.