Climate change-based models predict range shifts in the distribution of the only Asian plethodontid salamander: Karsenia koreana

Data-centric species distribution modeling: Impacts of modeler decisions in a case study of invasive European frog-bit

Premise

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely utilized to guide conservation decisions. The complexity of available data and SDM methodologies necessitates considerations of how data are chosen and processed for modeling to enhance model accuracy and support biological interpretations and ecological applications.

Methods

We built SDMs for the invasive aquatic plant European frog-bit using aggregated and field data that span multiple scales, data sources, and data types. We tested how model results were affected by five modeler decision points: the exclusion of (1) missing and (2) correlated data and the (3) scale (large-scale aggregated data or systematic field data), (4) source (specimens or observations), and (5) type (presence-background or presence-absence) of occurrence data.

Results

Decisions about the exclusion of missing and correlated data, as well as the scale and type of occurrence data, significantly affected metrics of model performance. The source and type of occurrence data led to differences in the importance of specific explanatory variables as drivers of species distribution and predicted probability of suitable habitat.

Discussion

Our findings relative to European frog-bit illustrate how specific data selection and processing decisions can influence the outcomes and interpretation of SDMs. Data-centric protocols that incorporate data exploration into model building can help ensure models are reproducible and can be accurately interpreted in light of biological questions.

Anopheles mosquitoes in Morocco: implication for public health and underlined challenges for malaria re-establishment prevention under current and future climate conditions

BACKGROUND

The potential reappearance and/or expansion of vector-borne diseases is one of the terrifying issues awaiting humanity in the context of climate change. The presence of competent Anopheles vectors, as well as suitable environmental circumstances, may result in the re-emergence of autochthonous Malaria, after years of absence. In Morocco, international travel and migration movements from Malaria-endemic areas have recently increased the number of imported cases, raising awareness of Malaria's possible reintroduction. Using machine learning we developed model predictions, under current and future (2050) climate, for the prospective distribution of Anopheles claviger, Anopheles labranchiae, Anopheles multicolor, and Anopheles sergentii implicated or incriminated in Malaria transmission.

RESULTS

All modelled species are expected to find suitable habitats and have the potential to become established in the northern and central parts of the country, under present-day conditions. Distinct changes in the distributions of the four mosquitoes are to be expected under climate change. Even under the most optimistic scenario, all investigated species are likely to acquire new habitats that are now unsuitable, placing further populations in danger. We also observed a northward and altitudinal shift in their distribution towards higher altitudes.

CONCLUSION

Climate change is expected to expand the potential range of malaria vectors in Morocco. Our maps and predictions offer a way to intelligently focus efforts on surveillance and control programmes. To reduce the threat of human infection, it is crucial for public health authorities, entomological surveillance teams, and control initiatives to collaborate and intensify their actions, continuously monitoring areas at risk. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Predicting future climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra): an endangered arboreal primate

Climate change is one of the main factors affecting biodiversity worldwide at an alarming rate. In addition to increases in global extreme weather events, melting of polar ice caps, and subsequent sea level rise, climate change might shift the geographic distribution of species. In recent years, interest in understanding the effects of climate change on species distribution has increased, including species which depend greatly on forest cover for survival, such as strictly arboreal primates. Here, we generate a series of species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate future projections under different climate change scenarios on the distribution of the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra), an endemic endangered primate species. Using SDMs, we assessed current and future projections of their potential distribution for three Social Economic Paths (SSPs) for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090. Specifically, we found that precipitation seasonality (BIO15, 30.8%), isothermality (BIO3, 25.4%), and mean diurnal range (BIO2, 19.7.%) are the main factors affecting A. pigra distribution. The future climate change models suggested a decrease in the potential distribution of A. pigra by projected scenarios (from - 1.23 to - 12.66%). The highly suitable area was the most affected above all in the more pessimist scenario most likely related to habitat fragmentation. Our study provides new insights into the potential future distribution and suitable habitats of Alouatta pigra. Such information could be used by local communities, governments, and non-governmental organizations for conservation planning of this primate species.

Double jeopardy: global change and interspecies competition threaten Siberian cranes

Anthropogenic global change is precipitating a worldwide biodiversity crisis, with myriad species teetering on the brink of extinction. The Arctic, a fragile ecosystem already on the frontline of global change, bears witness to rapid ecological transformations catalyzed by escalating temperatures. In this context, we explore the ramifications of global change and interspecies competition on two arctic crane species: the critically endangered Siberian crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus) and the non-threatened sandhill crane (Grus canadensis). How might global climate and landcover changes affect the range dynamics of Siberian cranes and sandhill cranes in the Arctic, potentially leading to increased competition and posing a greater threat to the critically endangered Siberian cranes? To answer these questions, we integrated ensemble species distribution models (SDMs) to predict breeding distributions, considering both abiotic and biotic factors. Our results reveal a profound divergence in how global change impacts these crane species. Siberian cranes are poised to lose a significant portion of their habitats, while sandhill cranes are projected to experience substantial range expansion. Furthermore, we identify a growing overlap in breeding areas, intensifying interspecies competition, which may imperil the Siberian crane. Notably, we found the Anzhu Islands may become a Siberian crane refuge under global change, but competition with Sandhill Cranes underscores the need for enhanced conservation management. Our study underscores the urgency of considering species responses to global changes and interspecies dynamics in risk assessments and conservation management. As anthropogenic pressures continue to mount, such considerations are crucial for the preservation of endangered species in the face of impending global challenges.

Southern Europe is becoming climatically favourable for African birds: anticipating the establishment of a new species

BACKGROUND

The current modification of species distribution ranges, as a response to a warmer climate, constitutes an interesting line of work and a recent challenge for biogeography. This study aimed to determine if the climatic conditions of southern Europe are adequate to host a typical African species, the House Bunting, which is registered regularly during the last years, still in low numbers. To this end, the distribution of the species in its native range was modelled, both in the present and in future climate scenarios, using its current breeding distribution areas and a set of environmental variables.

RESULTS

The results showed that the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula exhibits high values of favourability to host this African species for the current climatic conditions. Furthermore, future forecasts indicated an increase in favourability for this area. The highly favourable areas we detected in the south of the Iberian Peninsula are already regularly receiving individuals of the species. These observations are very likely vagrant birds dispersing from recently colonised breeding areas in northern Morocco, which may indicate a continuous process of colonisation towards the north, as has occurred during the last decades in Northern Africa.

CONCLUSIONS

We cannot anticipate when the House Bunting will establish on the European continent because colonisation processes are usually slow but, according to our results, we predict its establishment in the near future. We have also identified those areas hosting favourable conditions for the species in Europe. These areas are a potential focal point for the colonisation of this and other African birds if the climate continues to warm.

Global Protected Areas as refuges for amphibians and reptiles under climate change

Protected Areas (PAs) are the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. Here, we collated distributional data for >14,000 (~70% of) species of amphibians and reptiles (herpetofauna) to perform a global assessment of the conservation effectiveness of PAs using species distribution models. Our analyses reveal that >91% of herpetofauna species are currently distributed in PAs, and that this proportion will remain unaltered under future climate change. Indeed, loss of species' distributional ranges will be lower inside PAs than outside them. Therefore, the proportion of effectively protected species is predicted to increase. However, over 7.8% of species currently occur outside PAs, and large spatial conservation gaps remain, mainly across tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, and across non-high-income countries. We also predict that more than 300 amphibian and 500 reptile species may go extinct under climate change over the course of the ongoing century. Our study highlights the importance of PAs in providing herpetofauna with refuge from climate change, and suggests ways to optimize PAs to better conserve biodiversity worldwide.

A review on the status and modeling of suitable habitats of the southern white-cheeked gibbon

The southern white-cheeked gibbon Nomascus siki is endemic to Indochina and is classified as critically endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. The most updated information on the status of this species dates back to a decade ago. As hunting has tremendous impacts on wildlife in Southeast Asia, the population of N. siki might have changed a lot in the last decade. Updated information on the status and potential distribution of this species is critically important for conservation and prioritization, especially for N. siki because of its undefined distribution range. The goal of this study was to review the population status of N. siki in Vietnam and Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) and to model its potential distribution. In Vietnam, this species has been intensively surveyed in all major areas of occurrence from 2016 to 2021. The total number of N. siki groups recorded and estimated in Vietnam were 324 and 483, respectively. In Lao PDR, the occurrence of N. siki has been confirmed in Nam Kading, Nakai Nam Theun, Hin Nam No, and Phou Hinpoun national protected areas. However, population estimates are generally lacking. The suitable habitat of N. siki was predicted from about 105.00° to 106.80° E longitude and from about 16.60° to 17.90° N latitude located in Quang Binh and Quang Tri provinces (Vietnam), and Khammounan and Savannakhet provinces (Lao PDR). The area of the potential distribution range is about 9894.15 km², both in Vietnam and Lao PDR. Particularly, the high, medium, and low suitable habitats were estimated at around 1229.58 km², 3019.68 km², and 5644.89 km², respectively. The area of suitable habitat of N. siki in Vietnam was predicted to be 4151.25 km², of which only 1257.93 km² (30.30%) is in the protected area network. Dong Chau-Khe Nuoc Trong and Bac Huong Hoa Nature Reserves, and Phong Nha-Ke Bang National Park should receive priority for conservation of N. siki in Vietnam. Improving conservation beyond the protected areas' boundaries or transforming the forest enterprises and watershed protection forests into protected areas should also be considered as an alternative for the conservation of N. siki. In Lao PDR, surveys of the species in its entire distribution range should be the first priority.

Functional group analyses of herpetofauna in South Korea using a large dataset

Functional traits are characteristics of species that affect their fitness and ecosystem, and they greatly influence ecological niches. Thus, biodiversity assessment based on functional groups rather than species per se can more realistically reflect the ecological niche space. As essential players of ecosystem functions, herpetofauna are appropriate subjects of functional trait-based analyses. In this study, using a nationwide dataset and applying trait information and ecological niche modeling, the richness within each functional group, and the taxonomic and functional diversity indices of South Korean herpetofauna were visualized to identify and compare the geographic distributions. The results revealed that the reptile community seemed more locally diverse with more overlapping randomized patterns among groups than amphibians, while amphibians showed wider distributions and a higher within-grid occurrence ratio. Functional diversity indices of reptiles also showed more randomized geographic patterns with higher levels at Jejudo Island than amphibians. The findings of this study may help to identify biodiversity hot spots and understand its ecosystem health. Increasing survey data and trait information will improve the assessment.

Decline in the suitable habitat of dominant Abies species in response to climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region: insights from species distribution modelling

Reliable predictions of future distribution ranges of ecologically important species in response to climate change are required for developing effective management strategies. Here we used an ensemble modelling approach to predict the distribution of three important species of Abies namely, Abies pindrow, Abies spectabilis and Abies densa in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under the current and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and time periods of 2050 and 2090s. A correlative ensemble model using presence/absence data of the three Abies species and 22 environmental variables, including 19 bioclimatic variables and 3 topographic variables, from known distributions was built to predict the potential current and future distribution of these species. The individual models used to build the final ensemble performed well and provided reliable results for both the current and future distribution of all three species. For A. pindrow, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14) was the most important environmental variable with 83.3% contribution to model output while temperature seasonality (Bio4) and annual mean diurnal range (Bio2) were the most important variables for A. spectabilis and A. densa with 48.4% and 46.1% contribution to final model output, respectively. Under current climatic conditions, the ensemble models projected a total suitable habitat of about 433,003 km², 790,837 km² and 676,918 km² for A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa, respectively, which is approximately 10.36%, 18.91% and 16.91% of the total area of Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Projections of habitat suitability under future climate scenarios for all the shared socioeconomic pathways showed a reduction in potentially suitable habitats with a maximum overall loss of approximately 14% of the total suitable area of A. pindrow under SSP 8.5 by 2090. A decline in total suitable habitat is predicted to be 9.6% in A. spectabilis by 2090 under the SSP585 scenario while in A. densa 6.67% loss in the suitable area is expected by 2050 under the SSP585 scenario. Furthermore, there is no elevational change predicted in the case of A. pindrow while A. spectabilis is expected to show an upward shift by about 29 m per decade and A. densa is showing a downward shift at a rate of 11 m per decade. The results are interesting, and intriguing given the occurrence of these species across the Hindu Kush Himalayan region. Thus, our study underscores the need for consideration of unexpected responses of species to climate change and formulation of strategies for better forest management and conservation of important conifer species, such as A. pindrow, A. spectabilis and A. densa.

Elevational Distribution of Amphibians: Resolving Distributions, Patterns, and Species Communities in the Republic of Korea

Species biodiversity organises along elevational trends and is generally expected to decrease with increasing elevation. This pattern is regulated by numerous factors, although principally overridden by temperature in ectotherms such as amphibians. Here, we collated elevation data (n = 55,182) collected between 1909 and 2020. We then determined elevation distribution patterns and species communities for all amphibians in the Republic of Korea. Species were found to range from sea level up to 1,393 m a.s.l. The average elevational distribution was significantly different between species but also between anura and caudata. On average, anura were found at lower elevations with a peak in species richness and abundance matching with the lowlands. In opposition, the peak in species richness and abundance for caudata matched with low hilly landscapes. The altitudinal distributions of species were strongly skewed, with all 23 species found within the 0-199 m range, and steadily decreasing with only five species within the last elevational range (1,200-1,399 m). Finally, only a few species were found below 30 m, reflecting a likely risk of salinisation in this environment. Our results help understand the altitudinal distribution of amphibians in the Republic of Korea.

East palearctic treefrog past and present habitat suitability using ecological niche models

Ecological niche modeling is a tool used to determine current potential species' distribution or habitat suitability models which can then be used to project suitable areas in time. Projections of suitability into past climates can identify locations of climate refugia, or areas with high climatic stability likely to contain the highest levels of genetic diversity and stable populations when climatic conditions are less suitable in other parts of the range. Modeling habitat suitability for closely related species in recent past can also reveal potential periods and regions of contact and possible admixture. In the east palearctic, there are five Dryophytes (Hylid treefrog) clades belonging to two groups: Dryophytes japonicus group: Clades A and B; and Dryophytes immaculatus group: Dryophytes immaculatus, Dryophytes flaviventris, and Dryophytes suweonensis. We used maximum entropy modeling to determine the suitable ranges of these five clades during the present and projected to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Last Interglacial (LIG) periods. We also calculated climatic stability for each clade to identify possible areas of climate refugia. Our models indicated suitable range expansion during the LGM for four clades with the exclusion of D. immaculatus. High climatic stability in our models corresponded to areas with the highest numbers of recorded occurrences in the present. The models produced here can additionally serve as baselines for models of suitability under climate change scenarios and indicate species ecological requirements.

Global potential distribution of three underappreciated arboviruses vectors (Aedes japonicus, Aedes vexans and Aedes vittatus) under current and future climate conditions

Arboviruses (arthropod-borne viruses) are expanding their geographic range, posing significant health threats to millions of people worldwide. This expansion is associated with efficient and suitable vector availability. Apart from the well-known Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, other Aedes species may potentially promote the geographic spread of arboviruses because these viruses have similar vector requirements. Aedes japonicus, Ae. vexans and Ae. vittatus are a growing concern, given their potential and known vector competence for several arboviruses including dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. In the present study, we developed detailed maps of their global potential distributions under both current and future (2050) climate conditions, using an ecological niche modeling approach (Maxent). Under present-day conditions, Ae. japonicus and Ae. vexans have suitable areas in the northeastern United States, across Europe and in southeastern China, whereas the tropical regions of South America, Africa and Asia are more suitable for Ae. vittatus. Future scenarios anticipated range changes for the three species, with each expected to expand into new areas that are currently not suitable. By 2050, Ae. japonicus will have a broader potential distribution across much of Europe, the United States, western Russia and central Asia. Aedes vexans may be able to expand its range, especially in Libya, Egypt and southern Australia. For Ae. vittatus, future projections indicated areas at risk in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. As such, these species deserve as much attention as Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus when processing arboviruses risk assessments and our findings may help to better understand the potential distribution of each species.

Driven to the edge: Species distribution modeling of a Clawed Salamander (Hynobiidae: Onychodactylus koreanus) predicts range shifts and drastic decrease of suitable habitats in response to climate change

Climate change is one of the major threats to global amphibian diversity, and consequently, the species distribution is expected to shift considerably in the future. Therefore, predicting such shifts is important to guide conservation and management plans. Here, we used eight independent environmental variables and four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to model the current and future habitat suitability of the Korean clawed salamander (Onychodactylus koreanus) and then defined the dispersal limits of the species using cost distance analysis. The current habitat suitability model generated using the maximum entropy algorithm was highly consistent with the known distribution of the species and had good predictive performance. Projections onto years 2050 and 2070 predicted a drastic decrease of habitat suitability across all RCPs, with up to 90.1% decrease of suitable area and 98.0% decrease of optimal area predicted from binary presence grids. The models also predicted a northeastward shift of habitat suitability toward high-elevation areas and a persistence of suitability along the central ridge of the Baekdudaegan Range. This area is likely to become a climatic refugium for the species in the future, and it should be considered as an area of conservation priority. Therefore, we urge further ecological studies and population monitoring to be conducted across the range of O. koreanus. The vulnerability to rapid climate change is also shared by other congeneric species, and assessing the impacts of climate change on these other species is needed to better conserve this unique lineage of salamanders.

Potential Distribution of Amphibians with Different Habitat Characteristics in Response to Climate Change in South Korea

Simple Summary

Amphibian species are one of one of the groups most vulnerable to climate change according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Limited research has been conducted investigating the effects of climate change on amphibian species in South Korea. In our study, we aimed to predict the impacts of climate change on the distribution of 16 of the 18 species of amphibians currently reported in South Korea. Altogether, 30,281 occurrence points, six bioclimatic variables, and one environmental variable (altitude) were used in modeling. Moreover, we classified 16 Korean amphibians into three groups based on their habitat characteristics: wetland amphibians (Group 1), migrating amphibians (Group 2), and forest-dwelling amphibians (Group 3). Altitude has been predicted to be a major factor in present amphibian distributions in South Korea. In general, our results show that the seven species in Group 1 should be the most resistant to climate change. The five migrating amphibians (Group 2) should decline with preferred habitat reductions. The forest-dwelling amphibian species (Group 3) are the most vulnerable to climate change and their protection requires the immediate implementation of conservation strategies. We will continue to refine our model as it evolves into a useful tool for our endeavor to preserve South Korea’s amphibians as climate change progresses.

Abstract

Amphibian species are highly vulnerable to climate change with significant species decline and extinction predicted worldwide. However, there are very limited studies on amphibians in South Korea. Here, we assessed the potential impacts of climate change on different habitat groups (wetland amphibians, Group 1; migrating amphibians, Group 2; and forest-dwelling amphibians, Group 3) under future climate change and land cover change in South Korea using a maximum entropy modelling approach. Our study revealed that all amphibians would suffer substantial loss of suitable habitats in the future, except Lithobates catesbeianus, Kaloula borealis, and Karsenia koreana. Similarly, species richness for Groups 2 and 3 will decline by 2030, 2050, and 2080. Currently, amphibian species are widely distributed across the country; however, in future, suitable habitats for amphibians would be concentrated along the Baekdudaegan Mountain Range and the southeastern region. Among the three groups, Group 3 amphibians are predicted to be the most vulnerable to climate change; therefore, immediate conservation action is needed to protect them. We expect this study could provide crucial baseline information required for the government to design climate change mitigation strategies for indigenous amphibians.

Update on Distribution and Conservation Status of Amphibians in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea: Conclusions Based on Field Surveys, Environmental Modelling, Molecular Analyses and Call Properties

Determining the range, status, ecology and behaviour of species from areas where surveys and samplings are uncommon or difficult to conduct is a challenge, such as in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPR Korea). Here, we used genetic samples, field surveys, call recordings, photographic identification and a literature review to estimate the presence, range and status of amphibians in the DPR Korea. From our combined results and based on the IUCN Red List categories and criteria, we were able to estimate the national threat levels for most species. Our results demonstrated the presence of 18 native species and the suspected presence of Karsenia koreana and two Onychodactylus species. We reported the first record for Rana uenoi in the vicinity of Pyongyang using molecular tools and similarly confirmed the presence of Dryophytes japonicus at the same location. Based on distribution and modelling, we can expect the contact zone between species within the Rana and Onychodactylus genera to be located along the Changbai Massif, a mountain range that marks a shift in ecoregions and acts as a barrier to dispersion. The species richness was higher in the lowlands and at lower latitudes, with such areas populated by up to 11 species, while more northern regions were characterised by species richness of about half of that value. The combination of ecological models and known threats resulted in the recommendation of ten species as threatened at the national level following the IUCN Red List categories and criteria. This high number of threatened species was anticipated based on the high threat level to amphibians in bordering nations and globally. While the ecology of species in the DPR Korea is still understudied, we argue that species relying on agricultural wetlands such as rice paddies are not under imminent threat due to the enduring presence of extensive agricultural landscapes with low rates of chemical use and mechanisation. The maintenance of such landscapes is a clear benefit to amphibian species, in contrast to more industrialised agricultural landscapes in neighbouring nations. In comparison, the status of species dependent on forested habitats is unclear and threat levels are likely to be higher because of deforestation, as in neighbouring nations.

The Asian plethodontid salamander preserves historical genetic imprints of recent northern expansion

The Korean Peninsula, located at the southern tip of Northeast Asia, has never been covered by ice sheets and was a temperate refugium during the Pleistocene. Karsenia koreana, the sole Asian plethodontid salamander species, occurs only on the southern half of the Korean Peninsula and is thought to have found various climatic refugia. Despite its phylogenetic and biogeographic importance, no population-level genetic analysis has been performed on this species. Here we study the population genetic structure of K. koreana using mitochondrial and microsatellite loci to understand the recent historical dispersion process that shaped its current distribution. Overall, the genetic distance between populations correlated well with the spatial distance, and the genetic structure among populations showed signs of a unilateral northward expansion from a southernmost refugium population. Given the distinct genetic structure formed among the populations, the level of historical gene flow among populations appears to have been very low. As the estimated effective population size of K. koreana was also small, these results suggest that the small, restricted populations of K. koreana are extremely vulnerable to environmental changes that may require high levels of genetic diversity to cope with. Thus, special management strategies are needed to preserve these remnant populations.

Rift Valley Fever and West Nile virus vectors in Morocco: Current situation and future anticipated scenarios

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) and West Nile virus (WNV) are two important emerging Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes and Culex mosquitoes, typically Ae. caspius, Ae. detritus and Cx. pipiens in temperate regions. In Morocco, several outbreaks of WNV (1996, 2003 and 2010), affecting horses mostly, have been reported in north-western regions resulting in the death of 55 horses and one person cumulatively. Serological evidence of WNV local circulation, performed one year after the latest outbreak, revealed WNV neutralizing bodies in 59 out of 499 tested participants (El Rhaffouli et al., 2012). The country also shares common borders with northern Mauritania, where RVF is often documented. Human movement, livestock trade, climate changes and the availability of susceptible mosquito vectors are expected to increase the spread of these diseases in the country. Thus, in this study, we gathered a data set summarizing occurrences of Ae. caspius, Ae. detritus and Cx. pipiens in the country, and generated model prediction for their potential distribution under both current and future (2050) climate conditions, as a proxy to identify regions at-risk of RVF and WNV probable expansion. We found that the north-western regions (where the population is most concentrated), specifically along the Atlantic coastline, are highly suitable for Ae. caspius, Ae. detritus and Cx. pipiens, under present-day conditions. Future model scenarios anticipated possible range changes for the three mosquitoes under all climatic assumptions. All of the studied species are prospected to gain new areas that are currently not suitable, even under the most optimist scenario, thus placing additional human populations at risk. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes. Public health officials, entomological surveillance and control delegation must augment efforts and continuously monitor these areas to reduce and minimize human infection risk.

Disentangling the Impacts of Speciation, Sympatry and the Island Effect on the Morphology of Seven Hynobius sp. Salamanders

Closely related individuals from different areas can see their morphologies change based on differences between clades, but also ecological variables such as the island effect or sympatry. This is the case of salamanders, which have adapted to a broad range of ecological niches, ranging from underground dwellers in xeric landscape to tropical arboreal habitats. On the Korean Peninsula, salamanders from the Hynobius clade are widespread on the mainland and islands, with several partially sympatric clades and candidate species. Currently, seven lineages have been identified based on mtDNA, four of them matching named species and three others for which the species status remains untested. While the morphology of Korean Hynobius is known to be variable between genetically segregated clades, we hypothesise that (1) the candidate species are morphologically different, and that (2) the island effect and (3) the sympatric status have significant impacts on the morphology of individuals within the genus. Here we measured 329 Hynobius salamanders from all seven clades, in areas of sympatry and allopatry, and on islands and on the mainland (Graphical Abstract A). We determined that the island effect had a significant impact on the morphology of the genus, with mainland individuals generally displaying a broader range of morphology than islandic individuals (Graphical Abstract B). We also determined that sympatry had an impact on morphology, with the sizes of individuals from clades in sympatric areas diverging from each other (Graphical Abstract C). Finally, we demonstrated that all seven clades have significantly different morphologies, and we described the three candidate species that had already been isolated based on mtDNA and microsatellite data: Hynobius notialis sp. nov., Hynobius geojeensis sp. nov. and Hynobius perplicatus sp. nov. We conclude that looking at morphology alone would be misleading about the true diversity of Hynobius species, and species in general, because of the island and patry effects.

Fuzzy sets allow gaging the extent and rate of species range shift due to climate change

The recent modification of species distribution ranges in response to a warmer climate has constituted a major and generalized biogeographic change. The main driver of the shift in distribution is the disequilibrium of the species ranges with their climatic favourability. Most species distribution modelling approaches assume equilibrium of the distribution with the environment, which hinders their applicability to the analysis of this change. Using fuzzy set theory we assessed the response to climate change of a historically African species, the Atlas Long-legged Buzzard. With this approach we were able to quantify that the Buzzard's distribution is in a latitudinal disequilibrium of the species distribution with the current climate of 4 km, which is driving the species range northwards at a speed of around 1.3 km/year, i.e., it takes 3 years for the species to occupy new climatically favourable areas. This speed is expected to decelerate to 0.5 km/year in 2060-2080.

Climate change models predict decreases in the range of a microendemic freshwater fish in Honduras

Despite their incredible diversity, relatively little work has been done to assess impacts of climate change on tropical freshwater organisms. Chortiheros wesseli is a species of Neotropical cichlid (Cichlidae: Cichlinae) restricted to only a few river drainages in the Caribbean-slope of Honduras. Little is known about this species and few specimens had been collected until recently; however, our work with this species in the wild has led to a better understanding of its ecology and habitat preferences making it an excellent model for how freshwater fishes can be affected by climate change. This study assesses the distribution and habitats of Chortiheros wesseli using a combination of field data and species distribution modeling. Results indicate this species is largely limited to its current range, with no realistic suitable habitat nearby. Empirical habitat data show that this species is limited to narrow and shallow flowing waters with rapids and boulders. This habitat type is highly influenced by precipitation, which contributed the greatest influence on the models of present and future habitat suitability. Although several localities are within boundaries of national protected areas, species distribution models all predict a reduction in the range of this freshwater fish based on climate change scenarios. The likelihood of a reduced range for this species will be intensified by adverse changes to its preferred habitats.

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution of the Endangered Plant Species Manihot walkerae

Walker’s Manihot, Manihot walkerae, is an endangered plant that is endemic to the Tamaulipan thornscrub ecoregion of extreme southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. M. walkerae populations are highly fragmented and are found on both protected public lands and private property. Habitat loss and competition by invasive species are the most detrimental threats for M. walkerae; however, the effect of climate change on M. walkerae’s geographic distribution remains unexplored and could result in further range restrictions. Our objectives are to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of M. walkerae and assess the usefulness of natural protected areas in future conservation. We predict current and future geographic distribution for M. walkerae (years 2050 and 2070) using three different general circulation models (CM3, CMIP5, and HADGEM) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). A total of nineteen spatially rarefied occurrences for M. walkerae and ten non-highly correlated bioclimatic variables were inputted to the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to produce twenty replicates per scenario. The area under the curve (AUC) value for the consensus model was higher than 0.90 and the partial ROC value was higher than 1.80, indicating a high predictive ability. The potential reduction in geographic distribution for M. walkerae by the effect of climate change was variable throughout the models, but collectively they predict a restriction in distribution. The most severe reductions were 9% for the year 2050 with the CM3 model at an 8.5 RCP, and 14% for the year 2070 with the CMIP5 model at the 4.5 RCP. The future geographic distribution of M. walkerae was overlapped with protected lands in the U.S. and Mexico in order to identify areas that could be suitable for future conservation efforts. In the U.S. there are several protected areas that are potentially suitable for M. walkerae, whereas in Mexico no protected areas exist within M. walkerae suitable habitat.

Modeling current and future global distribution of Chrysomya bezziana under changing climate

In the last few years, significant changes in climate have had a disparate effect on biodiversity. The influences of these changes are random and unpredictable. The resurgence of insect pests, especially of medical and veterinary importance, often corresponds with climate changes. The Old World screwworm, Chrysomya bezziana, is one of the most important myiasis-causing flies that parasitize warm-blooded animals in the Eastern Hemisphere. We used a spatial distribution modeling approach to estimate the consequences of climatic changes on the potential geographic distribution of this insect throughout the world currently and in the future. A Maxent model used occurrence data from 104 localities and 19 climatic factors to predict the suitable habitat regions throughout the world. Two representative concentration pathways 2.6 and 8.5, were used to forecast the future distribution of C. bezziana in 2050 and 2070. The Maxent model for C. bezziana provided a satisfactory result, with a high value of the Area Under Curve equal to 0.855 (±0.001). Furthermore, the True Skilled Statistics value is equal to 0.67. These values indicate the significant influence on the model of the ecology of this fly species. Jackknife test indicated that temperature variables play a significant role in C. bezziana dynamics. The resultant models indicated the areas at risk of invasion by potential serious medical/veterinary issues, especially in countries with a large livestock production.

Ecological Niche Models Reveal Climate Change Effect on Biogeographical Regions: The Iberian Peninsula as a Case Study

How species are distributed on Earth depends largely on climate factors. Whenever these environmental conditions change, species tend to shift their distributions to reach more favourable conditions. Distinct sets of species similarly distributed (i.e., chorotypes) occur in biogeographical regions with homogeneous environmental conditions. Here, we analysed whether biogeographical regions are unstable over time (from the past to the future). We modelled the realised niche of amphibians and reptiles in the Iberian Peninsula in the present, and several past and future climate scenarios. Then, we used Jaccard’s index and the unweighted pair group method (UPGMA) to define the biogeographical regions. Our results suggest that the biogeographical regions of Iberian amphibians and reptiles changed greatly over time, due to the climatic changes between periods. Biogeographical regions composed of species with Atlantic affinities changed particularly, overall gaining suitable areas in past colder periods and losing suitable areas in warmer periods. The areas of refugia for amphibians over time corresponded to the most humid regions (north-west of the peninsula), while the most important areas for reptiles occur in the south and on the Atlantic coast. The identification of biogeographical patterns considering past climate changes is essential to better apply conservation measures.

High mortality in Bufo gargarizans eggs associated with an undescribed Saprolegnia ferax strain in the Republic of Korea

Pathogenic water molds have a significant impact on many species, especially amphibians. The genus Saprolegnia is a pathogenic oomycete restricted to aquatic and moist habitats, and its presence is strongly linked to the abundance of amphibians and fishes. We investigated the influence of Saprolegnia presence on egg mortality and egg occurrence under varying environmental conditions in the Asiatic toad Bufo gargarizans at 27 breeding sites in the Republic of Korea. We then assessed the impact of Saprolegnia on the presence of B. gargarizans at the 27 sites surveyed weekly during the B. gargarizans breeding season for 3 consecutive years. We used molecular tools to identify the water molds as belonging to an undescribed S. ferax strain. We demonstrated that the presence of S. ferax was positively associated with higher water conductivity and ponds. In addition, while S. ferax prevalence was associated with a reduction in B. gargarizans breeding activity and breeding success, we could not determine its impact on the subsequent breeding seasons. Our study highlights the potential negative effects of Saprolegnia on amphibian reproduction, although additional research is necessary to determine the relationship between Saprolegnia, its hosts and the impacts of habitat loss on amphibians.