1
|
Li ZT, Nie WP, Cai SM, Zhao ZD, Zhou T. Identifying Important Nodes in Trip Networks and Investigating Their Determinants. ENTROPY (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 25:958. [PMID: 37372303 DOI: 10.3390/e25060958] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2023] [Revised: 06/12/2023] [Accepted: 06/14/2023] [Indexed: 06/29/2023]
Abstract
Describing travel patterns and identifying significant locations is a crucial area of research in transportation geography and social dynamics. Our study aims to contribute to this field by analyzing taxi trip data from Chengdu and New York City. Specifically, we investigate the probability density distribution of trip distance in each city, which enables us to construct long- and short-distance trip networks. To identify critical nodes within these networks, we employ the PageRank algorithm and categorize them using centrality and participation indices. Furthermore, we explore the factors that contribute to their influence and observe a clear hierarchical multi-centre structure in Chengdu's trip networks, while no such phenomenon is evident in New York City's. Our study provides insight into the impact of trip distance on important nodes within trip networks in both cities and serves as a reference for distinguishing between long and short taxi trips. Our findings also reveal substantial differences in network structures between the two cities, highlighting the nuanced relationship between network structure and socio-economic factors. Ultimately, our research sheds light on the underlying mechanisms shaping transportation networks in urban areas and offers valuable insights into urban planning and policy making.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ze-Tao Li
- Compleχ Lab, Big Data Research Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610054, China
| | - Wei-Peng Nie
- Compleχ Lab, Big Data Research Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610054, China
| | - Shi-Min Cai
- Compleχ Lab, Big Data Research Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610054, China
| | - Zhi-Dan Zhao
- Complexity Computation Laboratory, Department of Computer Science, School of Engineering, Shantou University, Shantou 515063, China
- Key Laboratory of Intelligent Manufacturing Technology (Ministry of Education), Shantou University, Shantou 515063, China
| | - Tao Zhou
- Compleχ Lab, Big Data Research Center, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610054, China
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Baldoquín Rodríguez W, Mirabal M, Van der Stuyft P, Gómez Padrón T, Fonseca V, Castillo RM, Monteagudo Díaz S, Baetens JM, De Baets B, Toledo Romaní ME, Vanlerberghe V. The Potential of Surveillance Data for Dengue Risk Mapping: An Evaluation of Different Approaches in Cuba. Trop Med Infect Dis 2023; 8:tropicalmed8040230. [PMID: 37104355 PMCID: PMC10143650 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed8040230] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Revised: 04/03/2023] [Accepted: 04/11/2023] [Indexed: 04/28/2023] Open
Abstract
To better guide dengue prevention and control efforts, the use of routinely collected data to develop risk maps is proposed. For this purpose, dengue experts identified indicators representative of entomological, epidemiological and demographic risks, hereafter called components, by using surveillance data aggregated at the level of Consejos Populares (CPs) in two municipalities of Cuba (Santiago de Cuba and Cienfuegos) in the period of 2010-2015. Two vulnerability models (one with equally weighted components and one with data-derived weights using Principal Component Analysis), and three incidence-based risk models were built to construct risk maps. The correlation between the two vulnerability models was high (tau > 0.89). The single-component and multicomponent incidence-based models were also highly correlated (tau ≥ 0.9). However, the agreement between the vulnerability- and the incidence-based risk maps was below 0.6 in the setting with a prolonged history of dengue transmission. This may suggest that an incidence-based approach does not fully reflect the complexity of vulnerability for future transmission. The small difference between single- and multicomponent incidence maps indicates that in a setting with a narrow availability of data, simpler models can be used. Nevertheless, the generalized linear mixed multicomponent model provides information of covariate-adjusted and spatially smoothed relative risks of disease transmission, which can be important for the prospective evaluation of an intervention strategy. In conclusion, caution is needed when interpreting risk maps, as the results vary depending on the importance given to the components involved in disease transmission. The multicomponent vulnerability mapping needs to be prospectively validated based on an intervention trial targeting high-risk areas.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Mayelin Mirabal
- Unidad de Información y Biblioteca, Instituto de Ciencias Nucleares, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico
| | | | - Tania Gómez Padrón
- Centro Provincial de Higiene Epidemiología y Microbiología, Dirección Provincial de Salud, Santiago de Cuba 90100, Cuba
| | - Viviana Fonseca
- Centro Provincial de Higiene Epidemiología y Microbiología, Dirección Provincial de Salud, Santiago de Cuba 90100, Cuba
| | - Rosa María Castillo
- Unidad Provincial de Vigilancia y Lucha Antivectorial, Dirección Provincial de Salud, Santiago de Cuba 90100, Cuba
| | - Sonia Monteagudo Díaz
- Centro Provincial de Higiene Epidemiología y Microbiología, Dirección Provincial de Salud, Cienfuegos 55100, Cuba
| | - Jan M Baetens
- KERMIT, Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, 9000 Ghent, Belgium
| | - Bernard De Baets
- KERMIT, Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modelling, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, 9000 Ghent, Belgium
| | | | - Veerle Vanlerberghe
- Public Health Department, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nationalestraat 155, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
SEIR-Metapopulation model of potential spread of West Nile virus. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
|
4
|
Fritsch H, Giovanetti M, Xavier J, Adelino TER, Fonseca V, de Jesus JG, de Jesus R, Freitas C, Peterka CRL, Campelo de Albuquerque CF, Bispo de Filippis AM, da Cunha RV, Silva EC, Alcantara LCJ, Iani FCDM. Retrospective Genomic Surveillance of Chikungunya Transmission in Minas Gerais State, Southeast Brazil. Microbiol Spectr 2022; 10:e0128522. [PMID: 36005767 PMCID: PMC9602355 DOI: 10.1128/spectrum.01285-22] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2022] [Accepted: 07/13/2022] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Brazil accounted for a total number of 1,276,194 reported cases of chikungunya fever between 2014 and 2022. Additionally, since 2015, the country has experienced an increasing death toll, in which the Northeast and Southeast regions appear to report the worst scenarios. Although the CHIKV transmission dynamics have been studied in many parts of the country since its introduction in 2014, little is still known about chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission and genetic diversity in the state of Minas Gerais, located in southeast Brazil. Moreover, no studies have been published characterizing CHIKV genomic surveillance in this state. Thus, to retrospectively explore the CHIKV epidemic in Minas Gerais, we generated 40 genomes from clinical samples using Nanopore sequencing. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that multiple introductions of CHIKV occurred, likely from the northeastern Brazilian states, with the most recent common ancestral strain dating to early March 2016, which is in agreement with local epidemiological reports. Additionally, epidemiological data reveals a decline in the number of reported cases from 2017 to 2021, indicating that population immunity or changes in vector activity may have contributed to the decreasing waves of CHIKV infection. Together, our results shed light on the dispersion dynamics of CHIKV and show that infections decreased from March 2017 to January 2021 despite multiple introductions into Minas Gerais State. In conclusion, our study highlights the importance of combining genomic and epidemiological data in order to assist public health laboratories in monitoring and understanding the patterns and diversity of mosquito-borne viral epidemics. IMPORTANCE Arbovirus infections in Brazil, including chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever, and Zika, result in considerable morbidity and mortality and are pressing public health concerns. However, our understanding of these outbreaks is hampered by the limited availability of genomic data. In this study, we combine epidemiological analysis and portable genome sequencing to retrospectively describe the CHIKV epidemic in Minas Gerais between 2017 and 2021. Our results indicate that the East/Central/South African (ECSA) CHIKV lineage was introduced into Minas Gerais by three distinct events, likely from the North and Northeast regions of Brazil. Our study provides an understanding of how CHIKV initiates transmission in the region and illustrates that genomics in the field can augment traditional approaches to infectious disease surveillance and control.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Hegger Fritsch
- Laboratorio de Flavivírus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Estado de Minas Gerais, Fundação Ezequiel Dias, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Marta Giovanetti
- Laboratorio de Flavivírus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Department of Science and Technology for Humans and the Environment, Campus Bio-Medico University of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Joilson Xavier
- Laboratorio de Flavivírus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Talita Emile Ribeiro Adelino
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Estado de Minas Gerais, Fundação Ezequiel Dias, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Vagner Fonseca
- Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde, Organização Mundial da Saúde, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
| | - Jaqueline Góes de Jesus
- Laboratório de Patologia Experimental, Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fundacão Oswaldo Cruz, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Ronaldo de Jesus
- Coordenação Geral dos Laboratórios de Saúde Pública, Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
| | - Carla Freitas
- Coordenação Geral dos Laboratórios de Saúde Pública, Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
| | - Cassio Roberto Leonel Peterka
- Coordenação Geral das Arboviroses, Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministério da Saúde (CGARB/SVS-MS), Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Erniria Carvalhais Silva
- Coordenadoria Estadual de Vigilância das Arboviroses, Secretaria de Estado de Saúde de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | | | - Felipe Campos de Melo Iani
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Estado de Minas Gerais, Fundação Ezequiel Dias, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Ali A, Nisar S, Khan MA, Mohsan SAH, Noor F, Mostafa H, Marey M. A Privacy-Preserved Internet-of-Medical-Things Scheme for Eradication and Control of Dengue Using UAV. MICROMACHINES 2022; 13:1702. [PMID: 36296055 PMCID: PMC9609698 DOI: 10.3390/mi13101702] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2022] [Revised: 09/30/2022] [Accepted: 10/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection, found in tropical and sub-tropical climates worldwide, mostly in urban and semi-urban areas. Countries like Pakistan receive heavy rains annually resulting in floods in urban cities due to poor drainage systems. Currently, different cities of Pakistan are at high risk of dengue outbreaks, as multiple dengue cases have been reported due to poor flood control and drainage systems. After heavy rain in urban areas, mosquitoes are provided with a favorable environment for their breeding and transmission through stagnant water due to poor maintenance of the drainage system. The history of the dengue virus in Pakistan shows that there is a closed relationship between dengue outbreaks and a rainfall. There is no specific treatment for dengue; however, the outbreak can be controlled through internet of medical things (IoMT). In this paper, we propose a novel privacy-preserved IoMT model to control dengue virus outbreaks by tracking dengue virus-infected patients based on bedding location extracted using call data record analysis (CDRA). Once the bedding location of the patient is identified, then the actual infected spot can be easily located by using geographic information system mapping. Once the targeted spots are identified, then it is very easy to eliminate the dengue by spraying the affected areas with the help of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The proposed model identifies the targeted spots up to 100%, based on the bedding location of the patient using CDRA.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Amir Ali
- Military College of Signals (MCS), National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
| | - Shibli Nisar
- Military College of Signals (MCS), National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Asghar Khan
- Department of Electrical Engineering, Hamdard University, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
- Smart Systems Engineering Laboratory, College of Engineering, Prince Sultan University, Riyadh 11586, Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Fazal Noor
- Faculty of Computer and Information Systems, Islamic University of Madinah, Madinah 400411, Saudi Arabia
| | - Hala Mostafa
- Department of Information Technology, College of Computer and Information Sciences, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, P.O. Box 84428, Riyadh 11671, Saudi Arabia
| | - Mohamed Marey
- Smart Systems Engineering Laboratory, College of Engineering, Prince Sultan University, Riyadh 11586, Saudi Arabia
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Medicinal Plants of Solanum Species: The Promising Sources of Phyto-Insecticidal Compounds. J Trop Med 2022; 2022:4952221. [PMID: 36187457 PMCID: PMC9519333 DOI: 10.1155/2022/4952221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2021] [Revised: 05/14/2022] [Accepted: 07/31/2022] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Several medicinal plants have the potential to be a promising alternative pharmacological therapy for a variety of human illnesses. Many insects, including mosquitoes, are important vectors of deadly pathogens and parasites, which in the world's growing human and animal populations can cause serious epidemics and pandemics. Medicinal plants continue to provide a large library of phytochemicals, which can be used to replace chemically synthesized insecticides, and utilization of herbal product-based insecticides is one of the best and safest alternatives for mosquito control. Identifying new effective phyto-derived insecticides is important to counter increasing insect resistance to synthetic compounds and provide a safer environment. Solanum genus (Solanaceae family or nightshades) comprises more than 2500 species, which are widely used as food and traditional medicine. All research publications on insecticidal properties of Solanaceae plants and their phytoconstituents against mosquitoes and other insects published up to July 2020 were systematically analyzed through PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, EBSCO, Europe PMC, and Google Scholar databases, with focus on species containing active phytoconstituents that are biodegradable and environmentally safe. The current state of knowledge on larvicidal plants of Solanum species, type of extracts, target insect species, type of effects, name of inhibiting bioactive compounds, and their lethal doses (LC50 and LC90) were reviewed in this study. These studies provide valuable information about the activity of various species of Solanum and their phytochemical diversity, as well as a roadmap for optimizing select compounds for botanical repellents against a variety of vectors that cause debilitating and life-threatening human diseases.
Collapse
|
7
|
Lefebvre B, Karki R, Misslin R, Nakhapakorn K, Daudé E, Paul RE. Importance of Public Transport Networks for Reconciling the Spatial Distribution of Dengue and the Association of Socio-Economic Factors with Dengue Risk in Bangkok, Thailand. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:10123. [PMID: 36011755 PMCID: PMC9408777 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph191610123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/05/2022] [Revised: 08/07/2022] [Accepted: 08/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Dengue is the most widespread mosquito-borne viral disease of man and spreading at an alarming rate. Socio-economic inequality has long been thought to contribute to providing an environment for viral propagation. However, identifying socio-economic (SE) risk factors is confounded by intra-urban daily human mobility, with virus being ferried across cities. This study aimed to identify SE variables associated with dengue at a subdistrict level in Bangkok, analyse how they explain observed dengue hotspots and assess the impact of mobility networks on such associations. Using meteorological, dengue case, national statistics, and transport databases from the Bangkok authorities, we applied statistical association and spatial analyses to identify SE variables associated with dengue and spatial hotspots and the extent to which incorporating transport data impacts the observed associations. We identified three SE risk factors at the subdistrict level: lack of education, % of houses being cement/brick, and number of houses as being associated with increased risk of dengue. Spatial hotspots of dengue were found to occur consistently in the centre of the city, but which did not entirely have the socio-economic risk factor characteristics. Incorporation of the intra-urban transport network, however, much improved the overall statistical association of the socio-economic variables with dengue incidence and reconciled the incongruous difference between the spatial hotspots and the SE risk factors. Our study suggests that incorporating transport networks enables a more real-world analysis within urban areas and should enable improvements in the identification of risk factors.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Bertrand Lefebvre
- French Institute of Pondicherry, UMIFRE 21 CNRS-MEAE, Pondicherry 605001, India
| | - Rojina Karki
- CNRS, ARENES—UMR 6051, EHESP, Université de Rennes, 35000 Rennes, France
| | | | - Kanchana Nakhapakorn
- Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies, Mahidol University, Salaya, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand
| | - Eric Daudé
- CNRS, UMR 6266 IDEES, 7 rue Thomas Becket, 76821 Rouen, France
| | - Richard E. Paul
- Institut Pasteur, Université de Paris, CNRS, UMR 2000, Unité de Génétique Fonctionnelle des Maladies Infectieuses, 75015 Paris, France
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Aguilar J, Bassolas A, Ghoshal G, Hazarie S, Kirkley A, Mazzoli M, Meloni S, Mimar S, Nicosia V, Ramasco JJ, Sadilek A. Impact of urban structure on infectious disease spreading. Sci Rep 2022; 12:3816. [PMID: 35264587 PMCID: PMC8907266 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-06720-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2021] [Accepted: 02/04/2022] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been holding the world hostage for several years now. Mobility is key to viral spreading and its restriction is the main non-pharmaceutical interventions to fight the virus expansion. Previous works have shown a connection between the structural organization of cities and the movement patterns of their residents. This puts urban centers in the focus of epidemic surveillance and interventions. Here we show that the organization of urban flows has a tremendous impact on disease spreading and on the amenability of different mitigation strategies. By studying anonymous and aggregated intra-urban flows in a variety of cities in the United States and other countries, and a combination of empirical analysis and analytical methods, we demonstrate that the response of cities to epidemic spreading can be roughly classified in two major types according to the overall organization of those flows. Hierarchical cities, where flows are concentrated primarily between mobility hotspots, are particularly vulnerable to the rapid spread of epidemics. Nevertheless, mobility restrictions in such types of cities are very effective in mitigating the spread of a virus. Conversely, in sprawled cities which present many centers of activity, the spread of an epidemic is much slower, but the response to mobility restrictions is much weaker and less effective. Investing resources on early monitoring and prompt ad-hoc interventions in more vulnerable cities may prove helpful in containing and reducing the impact of future pandemics.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Javier Aguilar
- Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB), Campus UIB, 07122, Palma de Mallorca, Spain
| | - Aleix Bassolas
- Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB), Campus UIB, 07122, Palma de Mallorca, Spain.,School of Mathematical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, E1 4NS, London, UK.,Departament d'Enginyeria Informatica i Matematiques, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, 43007, Tarragona, Spain
| | - Gourab Ghoshal
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, 14627, USA.,Department of Computer Science, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, 14627, USA
| | - Surendra Hazarie
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, 14627, USA
| | - Alec Kirkley
- School of Data Science, City University of Hong Kong, 85PF Hong Kong, China.,Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA
| | - Mattia Mazzoli
- Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB), Campus UIB, 07122, Palma de Mallorca, Spain.,INSERM, Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique, IPLESP, Paris, France
| | - Sandro Meloni
- Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB), Campus UIB, 07122, Palma de Mallorca, Spain
| | - Sayat Mimar
- Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, 14627, USA
| | - Vincenzo Nicosia
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, E1 4NS, London, UK
| | - José J Ramasco
- Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB), Campus UIB, 07122, Palma de Mallorca, Spain.
| | - Adam Sadilek
- Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA, 94043, USA
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Niraula P, Mateu J, Chaudhuri S. A Bayesian machine learning approach for spatio-temporal prediction of COVID-19 cases. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT : RESEARCH JOURNAL 2022; 36:2265-2283. [PMID: 35095341 PMCID: PMC8787453 DOI: 10.1007/s00477-021-02168-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/30/2021] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Modeling the spread of infectious diseases in space and time needs to take care of complex dependencies and uncertainties. Machine learning methods, and neural networks, in particular, are useful in modeling this sort of complex problems, although they generally lack of probabilistic interpretations. We propose a neural network method embedded in a Bayesian framework for modeling and predicting the number of cases of infectious diseases in areal units. A key feature is that our combined model considers the impact of human movement on the spread of the infectious disease, as an additional random factor to the also considered spatial neighborhood and temporal correlation components. Our model is evaluated over a COVID-19 dataset for 245 health zones of Castilla-Leon (Spain). The results show that a Bayesian model informed by a neural network method is generally able to predict the number of cases of COVID-19 in both space and time, with the human mobility factor having a strong influence on the model, together with the number of infections and deaths in nearby areas.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Poshan Niraula
- Department of Mathematics, University of Jaume I, Castellón, Spain
| | - Jorge Mateu
- Department of Mathematics, University of Jaume I, Castellón, Spain
| | - Somnath Chaudhuri
- Department of Mathematics, University of Jaume I, Castellón, Spain
- Research Group on Statistics, Econometrics and Health (GRECS), University of Girona, Girona, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Temperature, traveling, slums, and housing drive dengue transmission in a non-endemic metropolis. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009465. [PMID: 34115753 PMCID: PMC8221794 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009465] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/22/2020] [Revised: 06/23/2021] [Accepted: 05/10/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue is steadily increasing worldwide and expanding into higher latitudes. Current non-endemic areas are prone to become endemic soon. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these settings, we assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the hitherto largest outbreak in the non-endemic metropolis of Buenos Aires, Argentina, based on detailed information on the 5,104 georeferenced cases registered during summer-autumn of 2016. The highly seasonal dengue transmission in Buenos Aires was modulated by temperature and triggered by imported cases coming from regions with ongoing outbreaks. However, local transmission was made possible and consolidated heterogeneously in the city due to housing and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, with 32.8% of autochthonous cases occurring in slums, which held only 6.4% of the city population. A hierarchical spatiotemporal model accounting for imperfect detection of cases showed that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. Global and local spatiotemporal point-pattern analyses demonstrated that most transmission occurred at or close to home. Additionally, based on these results, a point-pattern analysis was assessed for early identification of transmission foci during the outbreak while accounting for population spatial distribution. Altogether, our results reveal how social, physical, and biological processes shape dengue transmission in Buenos Aires and, likely, other non-endemic cities, and suggest multiple opportunities for control interventions. Dengue fever is mainly transmitted by a mosquito species that is highly urbanized, and lays eggs and develops mostly in artificial water containers. Dengue transmission is sustained year-round in most tropical regions of the world, but in many subtropical/temperate regions it occurs only in the warmest months. To improve understanding of dengue transmission in these regions, we analyzed one of the largest outbreaks in Buenos Aires city, a subtropical metropolis. Based on information on 5,104 georeferenced cases during summer-autumn 2016, we found that most transmission occurred in or near home, that slums had the highest risk of transmission, and that, outside slums, less-affluent neighborhoods of houses (vs. apartments) favored transmission. We showed that the cumulative effects of temperature over the previous few weeks set the temporal limits for transmission to occur, and that the outbreak was sparked by infected people arriving from regions with ongoing outbreaks. Additionally, we implemented a statistical method to identify transmission foci in real-time that improves targeting control interventions. Our results deepen the understanding of dengue transmission as a result of social, physical, and biological processes, and pose multiple opportunities for improving control of dengue and other mosquito-borne viruses such as Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever.
Collapse
|
11
|
Application of multiple omics and network projection analyses to drug repositioning for pathogenic mosquito-borne viruses. Sci Rep 2021; 11:10136. [PMID: 33980888 PMCID: PMC8115341 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-89171-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2020] [Accepted: 04/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Pathogenic mosquito-borne viruses are a serious public health issue in tropical and subtropical regions and are increasingly becoming a problem in other climate zones. Drug repositioning is a rapid, pharmaco-economic approach that can be used to identify compounds that target these neglected tropical diseases. We have applied a computational drug repositioning method to five mosquito-borne viral infections: dengue virus (DENV), zika virus (ZIKV), West Nile virus (WNV), Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) and Chikungunya virus (CHIV). We identified signature molecules and pathways for each virus infection based on omics analyses, and determined 77 drug candidates and 146 proteins for those diseases by using a filtering method. Based on the omics analyses, we analyzed the relationship among drugs, target proteins and the five viruses by projecting the signature molecules onto a human protein-protein interaction network. We have classified the drug candidates according to the degree of target proteins in the protein-protein interaction network for the five infectious diseases.
Collapse
|
12
|
Lee SA, Jarvis CI, Edmunds WJ, Economou T, Lowe R. Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions. J R Soc Interface 2021; 18:20210096. [PMID: 34034534 PMCID: PMC8150046 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0096] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2021] [Accepted: 04/26/2021] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Spatial connectivity plays an important role in mosquito-borne disease transmission. Connectivity can arise for many reasons, including shared environments, vector ecology and human movement. This systematic review synthesizes the spatial methods used to model mosquito-borne diseases, their spatial connectivity assumptions and the data used to inform spatial model components. We identified 248 papers eligible for inclusion. Most used statistical models (84.2%), although mechanistic are increasingly used. We identified 17 spatial models which used one of four methods (spatial covariates, local regression, random effects/fields and movement matrices). Over 80% of studies assumed that connectivity was distance-based despite this approach ignoring distant connections and potentially oversimplifying the process of transmission. Studies were more likely to assume connectivity was driven by human movement if the disease was transmitted by an Aedes mosquito. Connectivity arising from human movement was more commonly assumed in studies using a mechanistic model, likely influenced by a lack of statistical models able to account for these connections. Although models have been increasing in complexity, it is important to select the most appropriate, parsimonious model available based on the research question, disease transmission process, the spatial scale and availability of data, and the way spatial connectivity is assumed to occur.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sophie A. Lee
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Christopher I. Jarvis
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - W. John Edmunds
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Rachel Lowe
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Telle O, Nikolay B, Kumar V, Benkimoun S, Pal R, Nagpal BN, Paul RE. Social and environmental risk factors for dengue in Delhi city: A retrospective study. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009024. [PMID: 33571202 PMCID: PMC7877620 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2020] [Accepted: 12/01/2020] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Global urbanization is leading to an inexorable spread of several major diseases that need to be stemmed. Dengue is one of these major diseases spreading in cities today, with its principal mosquito vector superbly adapted to the urban environment. Current mosquito control strategies are proving inadequate, especially in the face of such urbanisation and novel, evidence-based targeted approaches are needed. Through combined epidemiological and entomological approaches, we aimed to identify a novel sanitation strategy to alleviate the burden of dengue through how the dengue virus spreads through the community. We combined surveillance case mapping, prospective serological studies, year-round mosquito surveys, socio-economic and Knowledge Attitudes and Practices surveys across Delhi. We identified lack of access to tap water (≤98%) as an important risk factor for dengue virus IgG sero-positivity (adjusted Odds Ratio 4.69, 95% C.I. 2.06–10.67) and not poverty per se. Wealthier districts had a higher dengue burden despite lower mosquito densities than the Intermediary income communities (adjusted Odds Ratio 2.92, 95% C.I. 1.26–6.72). This probably reflects dengue being introduced by people travelling from poorer areas to work in wealthier houses. These poorer, high density areas, where temperatures are also warmer, also had dengue cases during the winter. Control strategies based on improved access to a reliable supply of tap water plus focal intervention in intra-urban heat islands prior to the dengue season could not only lead to a reduction in mosquito abundance but also eliminate the reservoir of dengue virus clearly circulating at low levels in winter in socio-economically disadvantaged areas. Identifying disease hotspots and individual risk factors for dengue can enable targeted intervention strategies. We conducted combined serological, entomological and socio-economic surveys across 18 areas within Delhi, taken from the total 1280 colonies (i.e. the administrative units of reference in Delhi) for which we classified their socio-economic typology. We additionally performed a Knowledge, Attitudes, Practices survey at a household level within the most socially disadvantaged sub-districts. Finally, we mapped all the winter dengue cases to 250 m x 250 m units along with their winter mean temperatures. We found that access to tap water was an important risk factor for exposure to dengue virus (DENV) and this was confirmed even within the socially disadvantaged sub-districts. The Wealthy colonies had a high burden of DENV infection despite low mosquito densities, likely linked to their connectedness through daily human mobility. The winter burden of dengue occurred majoritarily in the socio-economically disadvantaged colonies, which also have higher mean temperatures and urban heat islands. Improved access to tap water could lead to a reduction in dengue, not only for those directly affected but for the general population. Targeted intervention through mosquito control in winter in the socially disadvantaged areas could offer a rational strategy for optimising control efforts.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Olivier Telle
- Géographie-cités, Université Paris-1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France
- Centre for Policy Research, Dharam Marg, Delhi, India
- * E-mail:
| | - Birgit Nikolay
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, France
| | - Vikram Kumar
- National Institute of Malaria Research, Sector 8, Dwarka, Delhi, India
| | - Samuel Benkimoun
- Géographie-cités, Université Paris-1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France
- Centre de Sciences Humaines, UMIFRE 20 CNRS-MAE,Delhi, India
| | - Rupali Pal
- Centre de Sciences Humaines, UMIFRE 20 CNRS-MAE,Delhi, India
| | - BN Nagpal
- National Institute of Malaria Research, Sector 8, Dwarka, Delhi, India
| | - Richard E. Paul
- Institut Pasteur, Functional Genetics of Infectious Diseases Unit, Paris, France
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Li SL, Messina JP, Pybus OG, Kraemer MUG, Gardner L. A review of models applied to the geographic spread of Zika virus. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 2021; 115:956-964. [PMID: 33570155 PMCID: PMC8417088 DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/trab009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2020] [Revised: 12/13/2020] [Accepted: 01/08/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
In recent years, Zika virus (ZIKV) has expanded its geographic range and in 2015–2016 caused a substantial epidemic linked to a surge in developmental and neurological complications in newborns. Mathematical models are powerful tools for assessing ZIKV spread and can reveal important information for preventing future outbreaks. We reviewed the literature and retrieved modelling studies that were developed to understand the spatial epidemiology of ZIKV spread and risk. We classified studies by type, scale, aim and applications and discussed their characteristics, strengths and limitations. We examined the main objectives of these models and evaluated the effectiveness of integrating epidemiological and phylogeographic data, along with socioenvironmental risk factors that are known to contribute to vector–human transmission. We also assessed the promising application of human mobility data as a real-time indicator of ZIKV spread. Lastly, we summarised model validation methods used in studies to ensure accuracy in models and modelled outcomes. Models are helpful for understanding ZIKV spread and their characteristics should be carefully considered when developing future modelling studies to improve arbovirus surveillance.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Sabrina L Li
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
| | - Jane P Messina
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK.,School of Global and Area Studies, University of Oxford, 12 Bevington Road, Oxford, OX2 6LH, UK
| | - Oliver G Pybus
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, 11a Mansfield Rd, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, UK
| | - Moritz U G Kraemer
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, 11a Mansfield Rd, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, UK
| | - Lauren Gardner
- Department of Civil and Systems Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD, 21218-2682, USA.,Center for Systems Science and Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD, 21218-2682, USA
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Stappen I, Wanner J, Tabanca N, Bernier UR, Kendra PE. Blue Tansy Essential Oil: Chemical Composition, Repellent Activity Against Aedes aegypti and Attractant Activity for Ceratitis capitata. Nat Prod Commun 2021. [DOI: 10.1177/1934578x21990194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Blue tansy essential oil (BTEO) ( Tanacetum annuum L.) was analyzed by GC-MS and GC-FID using two different capillary column stationary phases. Sabinene (14.0%), camphor (13.6%), myrcene (8.0%), β-pinene (7.7%), and chamazulene (6.9%) were the main components using an SE52 column (non-polar). On a polar CW20M phase column, sabinene (15.1%), camphor (14.4%), α-phellandrene (7.9%), β-pinene (7.7%), and myrcene (6.9%) were the most abundant compounds. To assess the oil for potential applications in integrated pest management strategies, behavioral bioassays were conducted to test for repellency against yellow fever mosquito Aedes aegypti, and for attractant activity for Mediterranean fruit fly Ceratitis capitata. Results showed that BTEO was not effective in repelling Ae. aegypti (minimum effective dosage [MED]: 0.625 ± 0.109 mg/cm2 compared with the standard insect repellent DEET (N,N-diethyl-3-methylbenzamide). In assays with male C. capitata, BTEO displayed mild attraction compared with two positive controls (essential oils from tea tree Melaleuca alternifolia and African ginger bush Tetradenia riparia). Additional studies are needed to identify the specific attractant chemicals in BTEO and to determine if they confer a synergistic effect when combined with other known attractants for C. capitata. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first investigation of BTEO for repellency against the mosquito vector Ae. aegypti and for attractancy to C. capitata, a major agricultural pest worldwide.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Iris Stappen
- University of Vienna, Department of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Vienna, Austria
| | - Juergen Wanner
- Kurt Kitzing GmbH, Hinterm Alten Schloss 21, Wallerstein, Germany
| | - Nurhayat Tabanca
- USDA-ARS, Subtropical Horticulture Research Station, Miami, FL, USA
| | - Ulrich R. Bernier
- USDA-ARS, Center for Medical, Agricultural, and Veterinary Entomology, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Paul E. Kendra
- USDA-ARS, Subtropical Horticulture Research Station, Miami, FL, USA
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
Lee SH, Chiu YR, Hung YT, Chen QG, Zhang A, Yang Y, Zhi P, Li Y, Zhu X, Chang PL. Establish a Real-time Responsible Home Quarantine and Monitoring Management mHealth Platform. AMIA ... ANNUAL SYMPOSIUM PROCEEDINGS. AMIA SYMPOSIUM 2021; 2020:697-706. [PMID: 33936444 PMCID: PMC8075449] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Due to the global spreading of the COVID-19 virus, countries all over the world are faced with the need to conduct centralized quarantine or home quarantine for "persons who have been in contact with individuals diagnosed with the COVID-19 virus" and "visitors who have travel histories via COVID-19 hot zones". We have presented the community home quarantine service platform design that was utilized in Nanjing, China when the first wave of citizens returns to work after the Chinese New Year holidays on 10th Feb 2020. The main functions of the home quarantine monitoring system include (1) community grid management,(2) GPS positioning application in home isolation movement management,(3) Bluetooth body temperature patch data transmission integration, (4) health assessment scale (physical and mental health state) and (5) multilingual language options.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Siang Hao Lee
- Institute of Biomedical Informatics, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Yi-Ru Chiu
- Institute of Biomedical Informatics, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Yin-Tsan Hung
- Health Management Center, The Affiliated BenQ Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Qi-Guang Chen
- Institute of Biomedical Informatics, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | | | | | - Peipei Zhi
- Kinyoung Smart Health (Nanjing) Co., Ltd
| | - Yi Li
- Kinyoung Smart Health (Nanjing) Co., Ltd
| | - Xinxin Zhu
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, School of Medicine Yale University Corresponding author: Po-Lun Chang,
| | - Po-Lun Chang
- Institute of Biomedical Informatics, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Mohd Aman AH, Hassan WH, Sameen S, Attarbashi ZS, Alizadeh M, Latiff LA. IoMT amid COVID-19 pandemic: Application, architecture, technology, and security. JOURNAL OF NETWORK AND COMPUTER APPLICATIONS (ONLINE) 2021; 174:102886. [PMID: 34173428 PMCID: PMC7605812 DOI: 10.1016/j.jnca.2020.102886] [Citation(s) in RCA: 37] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/28/2020] [Revised: 10/04/2020] [Accepted: 10/20/2020] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
In many countries, the Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) has been deployed in tandem with other strategies to curb the spread of COVID-19, improve the safety of front-line personnel, increase efficacy by lessening the severity of the disease on human lives, and decrease mortality rates. Significant inroads have been achieved in terms of applications and technology, as well as security which have also been magnified through the rapid and widespread adoption of IoMT across the globe. A number of on-going researches show the adoption of secure IoMT applications is possible by incorporating security measures with the technology. Furthermore, the development of new IoMT technologies merge with Artificial Intelligence, Big Data and Blockchain offers more viable solutions. Hence, this paper highlights the IoMT architecture, applications, technologies, and security developments that have been made with respect to IoMT in combating COVID-19. Additionally, this paper provides useful insights into specific IoMT architecture models, emerging IoMT applications, IoMT security measurements, and technology direction that apply to many IoMT systems within the medical environment to combat COVID-19.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Wan Haslina Hassan
- Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia
| | - Shilan Sameen
- Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia
- Directorate of Information Technology, Koya University, Koya, Kurdistan Region, Iraq
| | | | | | - Liza Abdul Latiff
- Fakulti Teknologi & Informatik Razak, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Carrillo MA, Kroeger A, Cardenas Sanchez R, Diaz Monsalve S, Runge-Ranzinger S. The use of mobile phones for the prevention and control of arboviral diseases: a scoping review. BMC Public Health 2021; 21:110. [PMID: 33422034 PMCID: PMC7796697 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-020-10126-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2020] [Accepted: 12/23/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The rapid expansion of dengue, Zika and chikungunya with large scale outbreaks are an increasing public health concern in many countries. Additionally, the recent coronavirus pandemic urged the need to get connected for fast information transfer and exchange. As response, health programmes have -among other interventions- incorporated digital tools such as mobile phones for supporting the control and prevention of infectious diseases. However, little is known about the benefits of mobile phone technology in terms of input, process and outcome dimensions. The purpose of this scoping review is to analyse the evidence of the use of mobile phones as an intervention tool regarding the performance, acceptance, usability, feasibility, cost and effectiveness in dengue, Zika and chikungunya control programmes. METHODS We conducted a scoping review of studies and reports by systematically searching: i) electronic databases (PubMed, PLOS ONE, PLOS Neglected Tropical Disease, LILACS, WHOLIS, ScienceDirect and Google scholar), ii) grey literature, using Google web and iii) documents in the list of references of the selected papers. Selected studies were categorized using a pre-determined data extraction form. Finally, a narrative summary of the evidence related to general characteristics of available mobile health tools and outcomes was produced. RESULTS The systematic literature search identified 1289 records, 32 of which met the inclusion criteria and 4 records from the reference lists. A total of 36 studies were included coming from twenty different countries. Five mobile phone services were identified in this review: mobile applications (n = 18), short message services (n=7), camera phone (n = 6), mobile phone tracking data (n = 4), and simple mobile communication (n = 1). Mobile phones were used for surveillance, prevention, diagnosis, and communication demonstrating good performance, acceptance and usability by users, as well as feasibility of mobile phone under real life conditions and effectiveness in terms of contributing to a reduction of vectors/ disease and improving users-oriented behaviour changes. It can be concluded that there are benefits for using mobile phones in the fight against arboviral diseases as well as other epidemic diseases. Further studies particularly on acceptance, cost and effectiveness at scale are recommended.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Maria Angelica Carrillo
- Centre for Medicine and Society, Master Programme Global Urban Health, Albert-Ludwigs- University Freiburg, Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany.
| | - Axel Kroeger
- Centre for Medicine and Society, Master Programme Global Urban Health, Albert-Ludwigs- University Freiburg, Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
| | - Rocio Cardenas Sanchez
- Centre for Medicine and Society, Master Programme Global Urban Health, Albert-Ludwigs- University Freiburg, Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
| | - Sonia Diaz Monsalve
- Centre for Medicine and Society, Master Programme Global Urban Health, Albert-Ludwigs- University Freiburg, Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany
| | | |
Collapse
|
19
|
Oliveira-Christe R, Wilke ABB, Marrelli MT. Microgeographic Wing-Shape Variation in Aedes albopictus and Aedes scapularis (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations. INSECTS 2020; 11:insects11120862. [PMID: 33287264 PMCID: PMC7761735 DOI: 10.3390/insects11120862] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2020] [Revised: 11/26/2020] [Accepted: 11/30/2020] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Aedes albopictus and Aedes scapularis are vectors of several arboviruses, including the dengue, chikungunya, and Rocio virus infection. While Ae. albopictus is a highly invasive species native to Asia and has been dispersed by humans to most parts of the world, Ae. scapularis is native to Brazil and is widely distributed in the southeast of the country. Both species are highly anthropophilic and are often abundant in places with high human population densities. Because of the great epidemiological importance of these two mosquitoes and the paucity of knowledge on how they have adapted to different urban built environments, we investigated the microgeographic population structure of these vector species in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, using wing geometric morphometrics. Females of Ae. albopictus and Ae. scapularis were collected in seven urban parks in the city. The right wings of the specimens were removed and digitized, and eighteen landmarks based on vein intersections in the wing venation patterns were used to assess cross-sectional variation in wing shape and size. The analyses revealed distinct results for Ae. albopictus and Ae. scapularis populations. While the former had less wing shape variation, the latter had more heterogeneity, indicating a higher degree of intraspecific variation. Our results indicate that microgeographic selective pressures exerted by different urban built environments have a distinct effect on wing shape patterns in the populations of these two mosquito species studied here.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Rafael Oliveira-Christe
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Enéas Carvalho de Aguiar, 470, 05403-000 Butanta, SP, Brazil;
| | - André Barretto Bruno Wilke
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33136, USA;
| | - Mauro Toledo Marrelli
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Enéas Carvalho de Aguiar, 470, 05403-000 Butanta, SP, Brazil;
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo, 715, 01246-904 Butanta, SP, Brazil
- Correspondence:
| |
Collapse
|
20
|
Moser KA, Madebe RA, Aydemir O, Chiduo MG, Mandara CI, Rumisha SF, Chaky F, Denton M, Marsh PW, Verity R, Watson OJ, Ngasala B, Mkude S, Molteni F, Njau R, Warsame M, Mandike R, Kabanywanyi AM, Mahende MK, Kamugisha E, Ahmed M, Kavishe RA, Greer G, Kitojo CA, Reaves EJ, Mlunde L, Bishanga D, Mohamed A, Juliano JJ, Ishengoma DS, Bailey JA. Describing the current status of Plasmodium falciparum population structure and drug resistance within mainland Tanzania using molecular inversion probes. Mol Ecol 2020; 30:100-113. [PMID: 33107096 DOI: 10.1111/mec.15706] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2020] [Revised: 09/25/2020] [Accepted: 10/13/2020] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
High-throughput Plasmodium genomic data is increasingly useful in assessing prevalence of clinically important mutations and malaria transmission patterns. Understanding parasite diversity is important for identification of specific human or parasite populations that can be targeted by control programmes, and to monitor the spread of mutations associated with drug resistance. An up-to-date understanding of regional parasite population dynamics is also critical to monitor the impact of control efforts. However, this data is largely absent from high-burden nations in Africa, and to date, no such analysis has been conducted for malaria parasites in Tanzania countrywide. To this end, over 1,000 P. falciparum clinical isolates were collected in 2017 from 13 sites in seven administrative regions across Tanzania, and parasites were genotyped at 1,800 variable positions genome-wide using molecular inversion probes. Population structure was detectable among Tanzanian P. falciparum parasites, approximately separating parasites from the northern and southern districts and identifying genetically admixed populations in the north. Isolates from nearby districts were more likely to be genetically related compared to parasites sampled from more distant districts. Known drug resistance mutations were seen at increased frequency in northern districts (including two infections carrying pfk13-R561H), and additional variants with undetermined significance for antimalarial resistance also varied by geography. Malaria Indicator Survey (2017) data corresponded with genetic findings, including average region-level complexity-of-infection and malaria prevalence estimates. The parasite populations identified here provide important information on extant spatial patterns of genetic diversity of Tanzanian parasites, to which future surveys of genetic relatedness can be compared.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Kara A Moser
- Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | | | - Ozkan Aydemir
- Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Mercy G Chiduo
- National Institute for Medical Research, Tanga, Tanzania
| | - Celine I Mandara
- National Institute for Medical Research, Tanga, Tanzania.,Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre/Kilimanjaro Christian Medical University College, Moshi, Tanzania
| | - Susan F Rumisha
- National Institute for Medical Research, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Frank Chaky
- National Malaria Control Program (NMCP), Dodoma, Tanzania
| | - Madeline Denton
- Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Patrick W Marsh
- Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Robert Verity
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Oliver J Watson
- Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA.,MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Billy Ngasala
- Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Sigsbert Mkude
- National Malaria Control Program (NMCP), Dodoma, Tanzania
| | | | - Ritha Njau
- World Health Organization Country Office, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Marian Warsame
- Gothenburg University, Gothenburg, Sweden.,Global Malaria Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Renata Mandike
- National Malaria Control Program (NMCP), Dodoma, Tanzania
| | | | | | - Erasmus Kamugisha
- Catholic University of Health and Allied Sciences/Bugando Medical Centre, Mwanza, Tanzania
| | - Maimuna Ahmed
- Catholic University of Health and Allied Sciences/Bugando Medical Centre, Mwanza, Tanzania
| | - Reginald A Kavishe
- Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre/Kilimanjaro Christian Medical University College, Moshi, Tanzania
| | - George Greer
- U.S. President's Malaria Initiative, U.S. Agency for International Development, U.S. Embassy, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Chonge A Kitojo
- U.S. President's Malaria Initiative, U.S. Agency for International Development, U.S. Embassy, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Erik J Reaves
- U.S. President's Malaria Initiative, U.S. Agency for International Development, U.S. Embassy, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Linda Mlunde
- Jhpiego/Boresha Afya Project, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | | | - Ally Mohamed
- National Malaria Control Program (NMCP), Dodoma, Tanzania
| | - Jonathan J Juliano
- Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.,Curriculum in Genetics and Molecular Biology, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.,Department of Epidemiology, Gillings School of Global Public Health, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Deus S Ishengoma
- National Institute for Medical Research, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.,Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Vic, Australia.,Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jeffrey A Bailey
- Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA
| |
Collapse
|
21
|
Martínez D, Hernández C, Muñoz M, Armesto Y, Cuervo A, Ramírez JD. Identification of Aedes (Diptera: Culicidae) Species and Arboviruses Circulating in Arauca, Eastern Colombia. Front Ecol Evol 2020. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2020.602190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The identification of vector species and their natural infection with arboviruses results in important data for the control of their transmission. However, for the eastern region of Colombia, this information is limited. Therefore, this study morphologically and molecularly identified species of the genus Aedes and the detection of arboviruses (Dengue, Chikungunya, Zika, and Mayaro) in female mosquitoes (individually) present in three municipalities (Saravena, Arauquita, and Tame) by amplifying the genetic material using RT-PCR (reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction) in the department of Arauca, eastern Colombia. Inconsistencies between morphological and molecular identification were detected in 13 individuals with Aedes albopictus initially determined as Aedes aegypti based on morphology (n = 13). Molecular identification showed the simultaneous presence of A. aegypti (n = 111) and A. albopictus (n = 58) in the urban municipalities of Saravena and Arauquita. These individuals were naturally infected with Dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) and Chikungunya virus (CHIKV). The most frequent arbovirus was DENV-1 with an infection rate of 40.7% (11/27) for A. aegypti and 39.7% (23/58) for A. albopictus, which was followed by CHIKV with an infection rate of 1.8% for A. aegypti (2/111) and 6.9% for A. albopictus (4/58). Additionally, a mixed infection of DENV-1 and CHIKV was obtained in 4.5% of A. aegypti (5/111). Zika virus (ZIKV) and Mayaro virus (MAYV) infections were not detected. This study found that barcoding (fragment gene COI) is a successful method for identifying Aedes species. Additionally, we recommend the individual processing of insects as a more accurate strategy for arboviruses detection since the infection rate is obtained and co-infection between DENV-1 and CHIKV is also possible.
Collapse
|
22
|
Xi W, Pei T, Liu Q, Song C, Liu Y, Chen X, Ma J, Zhang Z. Quantifying the Time-Lag Effects of Human Mobility on the COVID-19 Transmission: A Multi-City Study in China. IEEE ACCESS : PRACTICAL INNOVATIONS, OPEN SOLUTIONS 2020; 8:216752-216761. [PMID: 34812372 PMCID: PMC8545259 DOI: 10.1109/access.2020.3038995] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2020] [Accepted: 11/13/2020] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
The first wave of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic in China showed there was a lag between the reduction in human mobility and the decline in COVID-19 transmission and this lag was different in cities. A prolonged lag would cause public panic and reflect the inefficiency of control measures. This study aims to quantify this time-lag effect and reveal its influencing socio-demographic and environmental factors, which is helpful to policymaking in controlling COVID-19 and other potential infectious diseases in the future. We combined city-level mobility index and new case time series for 80 most affected cities in China from Jan 17 to Feb 29, 2020. Cross correlation analysis and spatial autoregressive model were used to estimate the lag length and determine influencing factors behind it, respectively. The results show that mobility is strongly correlated with COVID-19 transmission in most cities with lags of 10 days (interquartile range 8 - 11 days) and correlation coefficients of 0.68 ± 0.12. This time-lag is consistent with the incubation period plus time for reporting. Cities with a shorter lag appear to have a shorter epidemic duration. This lag is shorter in cities with larger volume of population flow from Wuhan, higher designated hospitals density and urban road density while economically advantaged cities tend to have longer time lags. These findings suggest that cities with compact urban structure should strictly adhere to human mobility restrictions, while economically prosperous cities should also strengthen other non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the spread of the virus.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Wang Xi
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China
- College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China
| | - Tao Pei
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China
- College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China
- Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and ApplicationNanjing210023China
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Disease, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing102206China
| | - Ci Song
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China
- College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China
| | - Yaxi Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China
- College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China
| | - Xiao Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China
- College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100049China
| | - Jia Ma
- Dongfang HospitalBeijing University of Chinese MedicineBeijing100078China
| | - Zhixin Zhang
- China-Japan Friendship HospitalBeijing100029China
| |
Collapse
|
23
|
Kishore N, Kiang MV, Engø-Monsen K, Vembar N, Schroeder A, Balsari S, Buckee CO. Measuring mobility to monitor travel and physical distancing interventions: a common framework for mobile phone data analysis. Lancet Digit Health 2020; 2:e622-e628. [PMID: 32905027 PMCID: PMC7462565 DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(20)30193-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
A surge of interest has been noted in the use of mobility data from mobile phones to monitor physical distancing and model the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Despite several years of research in this area, standard frameworks for aggregating and making use of different data streams from mobile phones are scarce and difficult to generalise across data providers. Here, we examine aggregation principles and procedures for different mobile phone data streams and describe a common syntax for how aggregated data are used in research and policy. We argue that the principles of privacy and data protection are vital in assessing more technical aspects of aggregation and should be an important central feature to guide partnerships with governments who make use of research products.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nishant Kishore
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Mathew V Kiang
- Center for Population Health Sciences, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | | | | | | | - Satchit Balsari
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA,India Digital Health Network, Lakshmi Mittal and Family South Asia Institute, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Caroline O Buckee
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA,Correspondence to: Prof Caroline O Buckee, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| |
Collapse
|
24
|
How Urban Factors Affect the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Infectious Diseases in Addition to Intercity Population Movement in China. ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/ijgi9110615] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Abstract
The outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has attracted global attention. During the Chinese New Year holiday, population outflow from Wuhan induced the spread of the epidemic to other cities in China. This study analyzed massive intercity movement data from Baidu and epidemic data to study how intercity population outflows affected the spatiotemporal spread of the epidemic. This study further investigated how urban factors influenced the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19. The analysis indicates that intercity movement was an important factor in the spread of the epidemic in China, and the impact of intercity movement on the spread was heterogeneous across different classes of cities. The spread of the epidemic also varied among cities and was affected by urban factors including the total population, population density, and gross domestic product (GDP). The findings have implications for public health management. Mega-cities should consider tougher measures to contain the spread of the epidemic compared with other cities. It is of great significance for policymakers in any nation to assess the potential risk of epidemics and make cautious plans ahead of time.
Collapse
|
25
|
Nadini M, Zino L, Rizzo A, Porfiri M. A multi-agent model to study epidemic spreading and vaccination strategies in an urban-like environment. APPLIED NETWORK SCIENCE 2020; 5:68. [PMID: 32984500 PMCID: PMC7506211 DOI: 10.1007/s41109-020-00299-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2020] [Accepted: 08/03/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Worldwide urbanization calls for a deeper understanding of epidemic spreading within urban environments. Here, we tackle this problem through an agent-based model, in which agents move in a two-dimensional physical space and interact according to proximity criteria. The planar space comprises several locations, which represent bounded regions of the urban space. Based on empirical evidence, we consider locations of different density and place them in a core-periphery structure, with higher density in the central areas and lower density in the peripheral ones. Each agent is assigned to a base location, which represents where their home is. Through analytical tools and numerical techniques, we study the formation mechanism of the network of contacts, which is characterized by the emergence of heterogeneous interaction patterns. We put forward an extensive simulation campaign to analyze the onset and evolution of contagious diseases spreading in the urban environment. Interestingly, we find that, in the presence of a core-periphery structure, the diffusion of the disease is not affected by the time agents spend inside their base location before leaving it, but it is influenced by their motion outside their base location: a strong tendency to return to the base location favors the spreading of the disease. A simplified one-dimensional version of the model is examined to gain analytical insight into the spreading process and support our numerical findings. Finally, we investigate the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns, supporting the intuition that vaccination in central and dense areas should be prioritized.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Matthieu Nadini
- Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, New York University Tandon School of Engineering, Brooklyn, 11201 USA
| | - Lorenzo Zino
- Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, New York University Tandon School of Engineering, Brooklyn, 11201 USA
- Faculty of Science and Engineering, University of Groningen, Groningen, 9747 AG The Netherlands
| | - Alessandro Rizzo
- Dipartimento di Elettronica e Telecomunicazioni, Politecnico di Torino, Torino, 10129 Italy
- Office of Innovation, New York University Tandon School of Engineering, New York, 11201 USA
| | - Maurizio Porfiri
- Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, New York University Tandon School of Engineering, Brooklyn, 11201 USA
- Department of Biomedical Engineering, New York University Tandon School of Engineering, Brooklyn, 11201 USA
| |
Collapse
|
26
|
Mass-surveillance technologies to fight coronavirus spread: the case of Israel. Nat Med 2020; 26:1167-1169. [PMID: 32457444 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-0927-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
|
27
|
Li L, Liu WH, Zhang ZB, Liu Y, Chen XG, Luo L, Ou CQ. The effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou, China: A population-based interrupted time-series study. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2020; 14:e0008541. [PMID: 32764758 PMCID: PMC7444500 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008541] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2020] [Revised: 08/19/2020] [Accepted: 06/30/2020] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
In 2019, dengue incidences increased dramatically in many countries. However, the prospective growth in dengue incidence did not occur in Guangzhou, China. We examined the effectiveness of early start of Grade III response to dengue in Guangzhou. We extracted the data on daily number of dengue cases during 2017–2019 in Guangzhou and weekly data for Foshan and Zhongshan from the China National Notifiable Disease Reporting System, while the data on weekly number of positive ovitraps for adult and larval Aedes albopictus were obtained from Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We estimated the number of dengue cases prevented by bringing forward the starting time of Grade III response from September in 2017–2018 to August in 2019 in Guangzhou using a quasi-Poisson regression model and applied the Baron and Kenny’s approach to explore whether mosquito vector density was a mediator of the protective benefit. In Guangzhou, early start of Grade III response was associated with a decline in dengue incidence (relative risk [RR]: 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.43–0.70), with 987 (95% CI: 521–1,593) cases averted in 2019. The rate of positive ovitraps also significantly declined (RR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.53–0.77). Moreover, both mosquito vector density and early start of Grade III response was significantly associated with dengue incidence after adjustment for each other. By comparing with the incidence in Foshan and Zhongshan where the Grade III response has not been taken, benefits from the response starting in August were confirmed but not if starting from September. Early start of Grade III response has effectively mitigated the dengue burden in Guangzhou, China, which might be partially through reducing the mosquito vector density. Our findings have important public health implications for development and implementation of dengue control interventions for Guangzhou and other locations with dengue epidemics. There is a lack of data on comparing the observed dengue incidences under the real-world scenarios that interventions commenced at different times. In 2019, WHO scaled up the response to dengue due to the escalation of outbreaks occurring in many countries. In the same year, local government in Guangzhou started the Grade III response to dengue one month ahead in August. It is uncertain the degree to which the early intervention mitigated dengue burden. Our study examined the effectiveness of early start of Grade III response in Guangzhou using a quasi-Poisson regression model by comparing the dengue incidence with early start of Grade III response and that under the counterfactual scenario that the Grade III response began in September as in 2017 and 2018. We estimated that 987 dengue cases were averted due to the early start of Grade III response, which were equivalent to 71.4% of the total number of local dengue cases in 2019. Early start of Grade III response reduced the dengue burden, which might be partially through controlling the mosquito vector density. Dengue intervention strategies applied in Guangzhou could provide experience on how to effectively prevent and control dengue for other locations with dengue epidemics.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Li Li
- State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Wen-Hui Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Zhou-Bin Zhang
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Yuan Liu
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Xiao-Guang Chen
- Department of Pathogen Biology, Key Laboratory of Prevention and Control for Emerging Infectious Diseases of Guangdong Higher Institutes, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Lei Luo
- Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
- * E-mail: (LL); (CQO)
| | - Chun-Quan Ou
- State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
- * E-mail: (LL); (CQO)
| |
Collapse
|
28
|
Gondauri D, Batiashvili M. The Study of the Effects of Mobility Trends on the Statistical Models of the COVID-19 Virus Spreading. ELECTRONIC JOURNAL OF GENERAL MEDICINE 2020. [DOI: 10.29333/ejgm/8212] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
|