A surrogate weighted mean ensemble method to reduce the uncertainty at a regional scale for the calculation of potential evapotranspiration

Mapping Potential Malaria Vector Larval Habitats for Larval Source Management in Western Kenya: Introduction to Multimodel Ensembling Approaches

Identification and mapping of larval sources are a prerequisite for effective planning and implementing mosquito larval source management (LSM). Ensemble modeling is increasingly used for prediction modeling, but it lacks standard procedures. We proposed a detailed framework to predict potential malaria vector larval habitats by using multimodel ensemble modeling, which includes selection of models, ensembling method, and predictors, evaluation of variable importance, prediction of potential larval habitats, and assessment of prediction uncertainty. The models were built and validated based on multisite, multiyear field observations and climatic/environmental variables. Model performance was tested using independent field observations. Overall, we found that the ensembled model predicted larval habitats with about 20% more accuracy than the average of the individual models ensembled. Key larval habitat predictors in western Kenya were elevation, geomorphon class, and precipitation for the 2 months prior. Additional predictors may be required to increase the predictive accuracy of the larva-positive habitats. This is the first study to provide a detailed framework for the process of multimodel ensemble modeling for malaria vector habitats. Mapping of potential habitats will be helpful in LSM planning.

Understanding Public Perceptions of COVID-19 Contact Tracing Apps: Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Social Media Analysis

BACKGROUND

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in late 2019 and its subsequent spread worldwide continues to be a global health crisis. Many governments consider contact tracing of citizens through apps installed on mobile phones as a key mechanism to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

OBJECTIVE

In this study, we sought to explore the suitability of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled social media analyses using Facebook and Twitter to understand public perceptions of COVID-19 contact tracing apps in the United Kingdom.

METHODS

We extracted and analyzed over 10,000 relevant social media posts across an 8-month period, from March 1 to October 31, 2020. We used an initial filter with COVID-19-related keywords, which were predefined as part of an open Twitter-based COVID-19 dataset. We then applied a second filter using contract tracing app-related keywords and a geographical filter. We developed and utilized a hybrid, rule-based ensemble model, combining state-of-the-art lexicon rule-based and deep learning-based approaches.

RESULTS

Overall, we observed 76% positive and 12% negative sentiments, with the majority of negative sentiments reported in the North of England. These sentiments varied over time, likely influenced by ongoing public debates around implementing app-based contact tracing by using a centralized model where data would be shared with the health service, compared with decentralized contact-tracing technology.

CONCLUSIONS

Variations in sentiments corroborate with ongoing debates surrounding the information governance of health-related information. AI-enabled social media analysis of public attitudes in health care can help facilitate the implementation of effective public health campaigns.

Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Analysis of Public Attitudes on Facebook and Twitter Toward COVID-19 Vaccines in the United Kingdom and the United States: Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Global efforts toward the development and deployment of a vaccine for COVID-19 are rapidly advancing. To achieve herd immunity, widespread administration of vaccines is required, which necessitates significant cooperation from the general public. As such, it is crucial that governments and public health agencies understand public sentiments toward vaccines, which can help guide educational campaigns and other targeted policy interventions.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop and apply an artificial intelligence-based approach to analyze public sentiments on social media in the United Kingdom and the United States toward COVID-19 vaccines to better understand the public attitude and concerns regarding COVID-19 vaccines.

METHODS

Over 300,000 social media posts related to COVID-19 vaccines were extracted, including 23,571 Facebook posts from the United Kingdom and 144,864 from the United States, along with 40,268 tweets from the United Kingdom and 98,385 from the United States from March 1 to November 22, 2020. We used natural language processing and deep learning-based techniques to predict average sentiments, sentiment trends, and topics of discussion. These factors were analyzed longitudinally and geospatially, and manual reading of randomly selected posts on points of interest helped identify underlying themes and validated insights from the analysis.

RESULTS

Overall averaged positive, negative, and neutral sentiments were at 58%, 22%, and 17% in the United Kingdom, compared to 56%, 24%, and 18% in the United States, respectively. Public optimism over vaccine development, effectiveness, and trials as well as concerns over their safety, economic viability, and corporation control were identified. We compared our findings to those of nationwide surveys in both countries and found them to correlate broadly.

CONCLUSIONS

Artificial intelligence-enabled social media analysis should be considered for adoption by institutions and governments alongside surveys and other conventional methods of assessing public attitude. Such analyses could enable real-time assessment, at scale, of public confidence and trust in COVID-19 vaccines, help address the concerns of vaccine sceptics, and help develop more effective policies and communication strategies to maximize uptake.

Trajectory Simulation and Prediction of COVID-19 via Compound Natural Factor (CNF) Model in EDBF Algorithm

Natural and non-natural factors have combined effects on the trajectory of COVID-19 pandemic, but it is difficult to make them separate. To address this problem, a two-stepped methodology is proposed. First, a compound natural factor (CNF) model is developed via assigning weight to each of seven investigated natural factors, that is temperature, humidity, visibility, wind speed, barometric pressure, aerosol, and vegetation in order to show their coupling relationship with the COVID-19 trajectory. Onward, the empirical distribution based framework (EDBF) is employed to iteratively optimize the coupling relationship between trajectory and CNF to express the real interaction. In addition, the collected data is considered from the backdate, that is about 23 days-which contains 14-days incubation period and 9-days invalid human response time-due to the nonavailability of prior information about the natural spreading of virus without any human intervention(s), and also lag effects of the weather change and social interventions on the observed trajectory due to the COVID-19 incubation period; Second, the optimized CNF-plus-polynomial model is used to predict the future trajectory of COVID-19. Results revealed that aerosol and visibility show the higher contribution to transmission, wind speed to death, and humidity followed by barometric pressure dominate the recovery rates, respectively. Consequently, the average effect of environmental change to COVID-19 trajectory in China is minor in all variables, that is about -0.3%, +0.3%, and +0.1%, respectively. In this research, the response analysis of COVID-19 trajectory to the compound natural interactions presents a new prospect on the part of global pandemic trajectory to environmental changes.

Reliable Evapotranspiration Predictions with a Probabilistic Machine Learning Framework

Evapotranspiration is often expressed in terms of reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), actual evapotranspiration (ETa), or surface water evaporation (Esw), and their reliable predictions are critical for groundwater, irrigation, and aquatic ecosystem management in semi-arid regions. We demonstrated that a newly developed probabilistic machine learning (ML) model, using a hybridized “boosting” framework, can simultaneously predict the daily ETo, Esw, & ETa from local hydroclimate data with high accuracy. The probabilistic approach exhibited great potential to overcome data uncertainties, in which 100% of the ETo, 89.9% of the Esw, and 93% of the ETa test data at three watersheds were within the models’ 95% prediction intervals. The modeling results revealed that the hybrid boosting framework can be used as a reliable computational tool to predict ETo while bypassing net solar radiation calculations, estimate Esw while overcoming uncertainties associated with pan evaporation & pan coefficients, and predict ETa while offsetting high capital & operational costs of EC towers. In addition, using the Shapley analysis built on a coalition game theory, we identified the order of importance and interactions between the hydroclimatic variables to enhance the models’ transparency and trustworthiness.