More frequent and widespread persistent compound drought and heat event observed in China

Characteristics of flash droughts and their association with compound meteorological extremes in China: Observations and model simulations

Flash droughts have gained considerable public attention due to the imminent threats they pose to food security, ecological safety, and human health. Currently, there has been little research exploring the projected changes in flash droughts and their association with compound meteorological extremes (CMEs). In this study, we applied the pentad-mean water deficit index to investigate the characteristics of flash droughts and their association with CMEs based on observational data and downscaled model simulations. Our analysis reveals an increasing trend in flash drought frequency in China based on historical observations and model simulations. Specifically, the proportion of flash drought frequency with a one-pentad onset time showed a consistent upward trend, with the southern parts of China experiencing a high average proportion during the historical period. Furthermore, the onset dates of the first (last) flash droughts during year are projected to shift earlier (later) in a warmer world. Flash droughts become significantly more frequent in the future, with a growth rate approximately 1.3 times higher in the high emission scenario than in the medium emission scenario. The frequency of flash droughts with a one-pentad onset time also exhibits a significant upward trend, indicating that flash droughts will occur more rapidly in the future. CMEs in southern regions of China were found to be more likely to trigger flash droughts in the historical period. The probability of CMEs triggering flash droughts is expected to increase with the magnitude of warming, particularly in the far-future under the high emissions scenario.

A critical review on the migration and transformation processes of heavy metal contamination in lead-zinc tailings of China

The health risks of lead-zinc (Pb-Zn) tailings from heavy metal (HMs) contamination have been gaining increasing public concern. The dispersal of HMs from tailings poses a substantial threat to ecosystems. Therefore, studying the mechanisms of migration and transformation of HMs in Pb-Zn tailings has significant ecological and environmental significance. Initially, this study encapsulated the distribution and contamination status of Pb-Zn tailings in China. Subsequently, we comprehensively scrutinized the mechanisms governing the migration and transformation of HMs in the Pb-Zn tailings from a geochemical perspective. This examination reveals the intricate interplay between various biotic and abiotic constituents, including environmental factors (EFs), characteristic minerals, organic flotation reagents (OFRs), and microorganisms within Pb-Zn tailings interact through a series of physical, chemical, and biological processes, leading to the formation of complexes, chelates, and aggregates involving HMs and OFRs. These interactions ultimately influence the migration and transformation of HMs. Finally, we provide an overview of contaminant migration prediction and ecological remediation in Pb-Zn tailings. In this systematic review, we identify several forthcoming research imperatives and methodologies. Specifically, understanding the dynamic mechanisms underlying the migration and transformation of HMs is challenging. These challenges encompass an exploration of the weathering processes of characteristic minerals and their interactions with HMs, the complex interplay between HMs and OFRs in Pb-Zn tailings, the effects of microbial community succession during the storage and remediation of Pb-Zn tailings, and the importance of utilizing process-based models in predicting the fate of HMs, and the potential for microbial remediation of tailings.

Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered increased attention due to their significant impacts on agriculture, energy, water resources, and ecosystems. We quantify the projected future shifts in CDHW characteristics (such as frequency, duration, and severity) due to continued anthropogenic warming relative to the baseline recent observed period (1982 to 2019). We combine weekly drought and heatwave information for 26 climate divisions across the globe, employing historical and projected model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 GCMs and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Statistically significant trends are revealed in the CDHW characteristics for both recent observed and model simulated future period (2020 to 2099). East Africa, North Australia, East North America, Central Asia, Central Europe, and Southeastern South America show the greatest increase in frequency through the late 21st century. The Southern Hemisphere displays a greater projected increase in CDHW occurrence, while the Northern Hemisphere displays a greater increase in CDHW severity. Regional warmings play a significant role in CDHW changes in most regions. These findings have implications for minimizing the impacts of extreme events and developing adaptation and mitigation policies to cope with increased risk on water, energy, and food sectors in critical geographical regions.

Implication of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on compound precipitation and temperature extremes in Africa

Three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models that simulated the G4 experiment of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) were used to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on combined temperature and precipitation extremes in Africa that can have greater negative impacts on human and the environment than individual rainfall or temperature extremes. The examined compound extremes included the dry (R_warm׀dry and R_cold׀dry) and wet (R_warm׀wet and R_cold׀wet) modes assessed during the injection (SAI, 2050-2069) and post-injection (postSAI, 2070-2089) periods compared with the historical period (1986-2005). We found a significant projected change in the occurrence of both wet and dry modes during SAI and postSAI related to the historical period. The magnitude and sign of this change depend on the season and the geographical location. During the SAI and postSAI, the wet (R_warm׀wet and R_cold׀wet) modes are projected to be significantly lower while the dry modes are noted to increase in a large part of African continent depending on the season and the geographical location and may consequently leads to an increase of the droughts prone areas. The termination effect is noted to reduce the occurrence of dry modes, which may reduce the potential negative effects of the injection after halting. As the effect may vary from one region to another and according to the season, it suggested assessing the key sector impacts of SAI. Thus, this change in dry modes due to SAI could affect all activities which depend on water resources such as water supply, agriculture and food production, energy demand, and production with adverse effects on health, security, and sustainable development, but this needs to be assessed and quantified at regional scales.

Three-decade assessment of dry and wet spells change across Iran, a fingerprint of climate change

Extended periods of hydro-climate extremes with excessive or scarce rainfall associated with high or low temperatures have resulted in an imbalanced water cycle and inefficient socio-economic systems in several regions of Iran. However, there is a lack of comprehensive investigations on short-term to long-term variations in timing, duration, and temperature of wet/dry spells. This study bridges the current gap through a comprehensive statistical analysis of historical climatic data (1959-2018). Results indicated that the negative tendency of the accumulated rainfall (- 0.16/ - 0.35 mm/year during the past 60/30 years) in 2- to 6-day wet spells had made significant contributions to the ongoing downward trend in annual rainfall (- 0.5/ - 1.5 mm/year during the past 60/30 years) owing to a warmer climate condition. Warmer wet spells are likely responsible for precipitation patterns changes in snow-dominated stations since their wet spells temperature has more than threefold growth with increasing distance to coasts. The most detected trends in climatic patterns have started in the last two decades and become more severe from 2009 to 2018. Our results confirm the alteration of precipitation features across Iran due to anthropogenic climatic change, and suggest expected increase in air temperature would likely result in further dry and warm conditions over the coming decades.

Wet depositions of cations in forests across NADP, EMEP, and EANET monitoring networks over the last two decades

Studies focused on emissions and acid deposition of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) and the consequent precipitation acidity have a long history. However, atmospheric depositions of cations play a critical role in buffering precipitation acidity, and providing cationic nutrients for vegetation growth lacks sufficient studies equally. The spatiotemporal patterns of cation depositions and their neutralization potential across broad scales remain unclear. Through synthesizing the long-term data in forest sites (n = 128) derived from three monitoring networks (NADP in Northern America, EMEP in Europe, and EANET in East Asia) on wet deposition of cations (Na+, NH4-N, K+, Mg2+, and Ca2+), this study assesses the temporal changes and spatial patterns of cation depositions and their neutralization potential over the last two decades. The results showed that the depositions of cationic nutrients were considerably higher in EANET compared to NADP and EMEP. The depositions of sea salt-associated sodium exhibited a significant transition from marine (> 15 kg ha-1 year-1) to inland (< 3.0 kg ha-1 year-1) forest sites attributable to the precipitation quantity and influences of sea spray. The higher emissions of NH3 and particulate matter in East Asia explained the higher cation depositions in EANET than NADP and EMEP. The annual trends of cations revealed that only 20-30% of the forest sites showed significant changing trends and the sites widely spread across the three networks. Possibly, base cation (BC) deposition has reached a low and stable condition in NADP and EMEP, while it has high spatial heterogeneity in the temporal change in EANET. The difference in BC deposition among the three networks reflects their distinct development of economy. Our synthesis indicates that the annual trends of neutralization factor (NF) in NADP can be explained by the declining of acid potential (AP), not by neutralization potential (NP) as BC deposition has been stably low over the past two decades. Whereas, the concurrent decreases of AP and NP in EMEP or plateau period of both AP and NP in EANET have come to a standstill of acid neutralizing capacity.

Drought-heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review

Climate change is drastically altering the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) episodes, which present a new challenge in environmental and socioeconomic sectors. These threats are of particular importance in low-income regions with growing populations, fragile infrastructure, and threatened ecosystems. This review synthesizes emerging progress in the understanding of CDHW patterns in Brazil while providing insights about the impacts on fire occurrence and public health. Evidence is mounting that heatwaves are becoming increasingly linked with droughts in northeastern and southeastern Brazil, the Amazonia, and the Pantanal. In those regions, recent studies have begun to build a better understanding of the physical mechanisms behind CDHW events, such as the soil moisture-atmosphere coupling, promoted by exceptional atmospheric blocking conditions. Results hint at a synergy between CDHW events and high fire activity in the country over the last decades, with the most recent example being the catastrophic 2020 fires in the Pantanal. Moreover, we show that HWs were responsible for increasing mortality and preterm births during record-breaking droughts in southeastern Brazil. This work paves the way for a more in-depth understanding on CDHW events and their impacts, which is crucial to enhance the adaptive capacity of different Brazilian sectors.

Compound events and associated impacts in China

Owing to amplified impacts on human society and ecosystems, compound events (or extremes) have attracted ample attention in recent decades. China is particularly vulnerable to compound events due to the fast warming rate, dense populations, and fragile ecological environment. Recent studies have demonstrated tangible effects of climate change on compound events with mounting impacts on the economy, agriculture, public health, and infrastructure in China, posing unprecedented threats that are increasingly difficult to manage. Here, I synthesize recent progress in studies of compound events and associated impacts in China. Several lines of evidence indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of multiple types of compound events across China. Future directions in studying compound events in China are suggested, including investigating extremes from a compound perspective, modeling compound events in the Anthropocene, quantitative evaluations of risks, and holistic adaptation measures of compound events.

Evidence for Intensification in Meteorological Drought Since the 1950s and Recent Dryness–Wetness Forecasting in China

Drought is one of the major environmental stressors; drought is increasingly threatening the living environment of mankind. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) with a 12-month timescale was adopted to monitor dry–wet status over China from 1951 to 2021. The modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) and Pettitt tests were used to assess the temporal trend and nonlinear behavior of annual drought variability. The analysis focuses on the spatio-temporal structure of the dry–wet transition and its general connections with climate change processes. In addition, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was applied to forecast the dry–wet behavior in the next year (2022) at 160 stations, and the hotspot areas for extreme dryness–wetness in China were identified in the near term. The results indicate that the dry–wet climate in China overall exhibits interannual variability characterized by intensified drought. The climate in the Northeast China (NEC), North China (NC), Northwest China (NWC), and Southwest China (SWC) has experienced a significant (p < 0.05) drying trend; however, the dry–wet changes in the East China (EC) and South Central China (SCC) are highly spatially heterogeneous. The significant uptrend in precipitation is mainly concentrated to the west of 100° E; the rising magnitude of precipitation is higher in Eastern China near 30° N, with a changing rate of 20–40 mm/decade. Each of the sub-regions has experienced significant (p < 0.01) warming over the past 71 years. Geographically, the increase in temperature north of 30° N is noticeably higher than that south of 30° N, with trend magnitudes of 0.30–0.50 °C/decade and 0.15–0.30 °C/decade, respectively. The response of the northern part of Eastern China to the warming trend had already emerged as early as the 1980s; these responses were earlier and more intense than those south of 40° N latitude (1990s). The drying trends are statistically significant in the northern and southern regions, bounded by 30° N, with trend magnitudes of −0.30–−0.20/decade and −0.20–−0.10/decade, respectively. The northern and southwestern parts of China have experienced a significant (p < 0.05) increase in the drought level since the 1950s, which is closely related to significant warming in recent decades. This study reveals the consistency of the spatial distribution of variations in precipitation and the SPEI along 30° N latitude. A weak uptrend in the SPEI, i.e., an increase in wetness, is shown in Eastern China surrounding 30° N, with a changing rate of 0.003–0.10/decade; this is closely associated with increasing precipitation in the area. Drought forecasting indicates that recent drying areas are located in NWC, the western part of NC, the western part of SWC, and the southern part of SCC. The climate is expected to show wetting characteristics in NEC, the southeastern part of NC, and the eastern part of EC. The dry–wet conditions spanning the area between 30–40° N and 100–110° E exhibit a greater spatial variability. The region between 20–50° N and 80–105° E will continue to face intense challenges from drought in the near future. This study provides compelling evidence for the temporal variability of meteorological drought in different sub-regions of China. The findings may contribute to understanding the spatio-temporal effect of historical climate change on dry–wet variation in the region since the 1950s, particularly in the context of global warming.

The influence of soil dry-out on the record-breaking hot 2013/2014 summer in Southeast Brazil

The 2013/2014 summer in Southeast Brazil was marked by historical unprecedented compound dry and hot (CDH) conditions with profound socio-economic impacts. The synoptic drivers for this event have already been analyzed, and its occurrence within the context of the increasing trend of CDH conditions in the area evaluated. However, so far, the causes for these record temperatures remain poorly understood. Here, a detailed characterization of the 2013/2014 austral summer season over Southeast Brazil is proposed, emphasizing the role played by land-atmosphere interactions in temperature escalation. We demonstrate that a strong soil moisture-temperature coupling regime promoted record-breaking temperatures levels exceeding almost 5 °C over the previous highest record, and played a key role in triggering an outstanding 'mega-heatwave' that lasted for a period of around 20 days. This pronounced soil desiccation occurred within a current climate change trend defined by drier and hotter conditions in the region. The soil dry-out, coupled with strong radiative processes and low entrainment of cooler air masses through mesoscale sea-breeze circulation processes, led to a water-limited regime and to an enhancement of sensible heat fluxes that, ultimately, resulted in a sharp increase of surface temperatures.

The compound effects of drought and high temperature stresses will be the main constraints on maize yield in Northeast China

Compound climate extremes such as drought and high temperature have a greater impact on agricultural production than the individual extremes. An increasing frequency and intensity of the compound climate extremes has been observed and projected under climate change, yet partitioning the total impacts to individual ones on crop yield has not been well assessed. In this study, we assessed the compound and separate effects of drought and high temperature on maize yield under 9 climate-year types (CYTs) with different combinations of precipitation and temperature in Northeast China (NEC). The well-validated Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) model was used to simulate the maize yield, driven by historical (1981-2017) and future climate data (2021-2060). The results show that CYTs of warm (warm-dry, warm-wet, warm) are prominent in the future under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. However, CYT of warm-wet increased mostly (11.5%) under RCP8.5, while warm-dry increased most (12.3%) under RCP4.5. The magnitude of maize yield loss caused by the compound of high temperature and drought (18.75%) is higher than the individual ones (drought 17.32% and high temperature 1.27%). There are variations in the effects of stresses on maize yield among CYTs and the yield reductions by the compound effects of drought and high temperature were warm-dry > warm > rainless > warm-wet > normal > cold-dry > cold > rainy > cold-wet. In addition, the yield loss was negatively correlated with T_max and VPD_max but positively correlated with Prec. These findings imply the importance of fully considering the selection of heat and drought-resistant varieties and implementing supplementary irrigation for future climate mitigation strategies during maize production in NEC.

Population Exposure to Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in the Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Gan River Basin, China

The frequency, duration, and magnitude of heatwaves and droughts are expected to increase in a warming climate, which can have profound impacts on the environment, society, and public health, and these may be severely affected specifically by compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs). On the basis of daily maximum temperature data and the one-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from 1961 to 2018, the Gan River Basin (GRB) was taken as a case here to construct CDHW identification indicators and quantify the population exposure to CDHWs. We found that ERA5 reanalysis data performed well in overall simulating temperature, precipitation, one-month SPEI, heatwaves, and CDHWs in the GRB from 1961 to 2018. CDHWs during the period from 1997 to 2018 were slightly higher than that in 1961–1997. CDHWs were more likely to occur in the southern parts of the basin due to the relatively high values of drought–heatwave dependence indices. Atmospheric circulation analysis of the 2003 CDHW in the GRB showed a relatively long-lasting anomalous high pressure and anticyclonic circulation system, accompanied by the positive convective inhibition and surface net solar radiation anomalies. These circulating background fields eventually led to the exceptional 2003 CDHW occurrence in the GRB. The population exposure to CDHWs basically increased, especially for the moderate CDHWs in ERA5. The change in total exposure was mainly due to climate change. Compared with the period from 1989 to 1998, the contributions of the population change effect in 2009–2018 gradually increased with the increase in the CDHW magnitude both in the observations and ERA5 reanalysis data.