Geographic and temporal variation in racial and ethnic disparities in SARS-CoV-2 positivity between February 2020 and August 2021 in the United States

Excess mortality in US Veterans during the COVID-19 pandemic: an individual-level cohort study

BACKGROUND

Most analyses of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic have employed aggregate data. Individual-level data from the largest integrated healthcare system in the US may enhance understanding of excess mortality.

METHODS

We performed an observational cohort study following patients receiving care from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) between 1 March 2018 and 28 February 2022. We estimated excess mortality on an absolute scale (i.e. excess mortality rates, number of excess deaths) and a relative scale by measuring the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality comparing pandemic and pre-pandemic periods, overall and within demographic and clinical subgroups. Comorbidity burden and frailty were measured using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index, respectively.

RESULTS

Of 5 905 747 patients, the median age was 65.8 years and 91% were men. Overall, the excess mortality rate was 10.0 deaths/1000 person-years (PY), with a total of 103 164 excess deaths and pandemic HR of 1.25 (95% CI 1.25-1.26). Excess mortality rates were highest among the most frail patients (52.0/1000 PY) and those with the highest comorbidity burden (16.3/1000 PY). However, the largest relative mortality increases were observed among the least frail (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.30-1.32) and those with the lowest comorbidity burden (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.43-1.46).

CONCLUSIONS

Individual-level data offered crucial clinical and operational insights into US excess mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable differences emerged among clinical risk groups, emphasizing the need for reporting excess mortality in both absolute and relative terms to inform resource allocation in future outbreaks.

VA Research and Operations Uniting to Combat COVID-19 Inequities

As novel coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) began to spread across the United States in early 2020, health care systems faced extreme demands on resources. As the country's largest single-payer health care system, the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) was uniquely positioned to study how the virus impacted different communities and work to improve care provided to all. Early on, a literature review of prior epidemics revealed that occupational exposures and an inability to socially distance could impact some groups more than others. The VA's Office of Health Equity leveraged a general sense of community to create a collaborative research space and a dedicated analytic space to inform pandemic operations. VA researchers and operations staff were able to quickly share information and respond to updates to produce accurate and reliable publications for medical professionals and the general public. Partnerships with VA Medical Centers and Veteran Service Organizations helped to increase communication across the nation and determine the most critical needs. Although COVID-19 was dynamic in nature, VA's intentional examination of social and structural factors was crucial in informing a more equitable approach. Moving forward, these inequities must be intentionally addressed in future pandemic responses.

Absolute and relative excess mortality across demographic and clinical subgroups during the COVID-19 pandemic: an individual-level cohort study from a nationwide healthcare system of US Veterans

Background

Most analyses of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic have employed aggregate data. Individual-level data from the largest integrated healthcare system in the US may enhance understanding of excess mortality.

Methods

We performed an observational cohort study following patients receiving care from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) between 1 March 2018 and 28 February 2022. We estimated excess mortality on an absolute scale (i.e., excess mortality rates, number of excess deaths), and a relative scale by measuring the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality comparing pandemic and pre-pandemic periods, overall, and within demographic and clinical subgroups. Comorbidity burden and frailty were measured using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index, respectively.

Results

Of 5,905,747 patients, median age was 65.8 years and 91% were men. Overall, the excess mortality rate was 10.0 deaths/1000 person-years (PY), with a total of 103,164 excess deaths and pandemic HR of 1.25 (95% CI 1.25-1.26). Excess mortality rates were highest among the most frail patients (52.0/1000 PY) and those with the highest comorbidity burden (16.3/1000 PY). However, the largest relative mortality increases were observed among the least frail (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.30-1.32) and those with the lowest comorbidity burden (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.43-1.46).

Conclusions

Individual-level data offered crucial clinical and operational insights into US excess mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable differences emerged among clinical risk groups, emphasising the need for reporting excess mortality in both absolute and relative terms to inform resource allocation in future outbreaks.

Excess Mortality Among Patients in the Veterans Affairs Health System Compared With the Overall US Population During the First Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Importance

During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a substantial increase in the rate of death in the United States. It is unclear whether those who had access to comprehensive medical care through the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system had different death rates compared with the overall US population.

Objective

To quantify and compare the increase in death rates during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic between individuals who received comprehensive medical care through the VA health care system and those in the general US population.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study compared 10.9 million enrollees in the VA, including 6.8 million active users of VA health care (those with a visit in the last 2 years), with the general population of the US, with deaths occurring from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2020. Statistical analysis was conducted from May 17, 2021, to March 15, 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Changes in rates of death from any cause during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 compared with previous years. Changes in all-cause death rates by quarter were stratified by age, sex, race and ethnicity, and region, based on individual-level data. Multilevel regression models were fit in a bayesian setting. Standardized rates were used for comparison between populations.

Results

There were 10.9 million enrollees in the VA health care system and 6.8 million active users. The demographic characteristics of the VA populations were predominantly male (>85% in the VA health care system vs 49% in the general US population), older (mean [SD], 61.0 [18.2] years in the VA health care system vs 39.0 [23.1] years in the US population), and had a larger proportion of patients who were White (73% in the VA health care system vs 61% in the US population) or Black (17% in the VA health care system vs 13% in the US population). Increases in death rates were apparent across all of the adult age groups (≥25 years) in both the VA populations and the general US population. Across all of 2020, the relative increase in death rates compared with expected values was similar for VA enrollees (risk ratio [RR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.14-1.29]), VA active users (RR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.14-1.26]), and the general US population (RR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.17-1.22]). Because the prepandemic standardized mortality rates were higher in the VA populations prior to the pandemic, the absolute rates of excess mortality were higher in the VA populations.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, a comparison of excess deaths between populations suggests that active users of the VA health system had similar relative increases in mortality compared with the general US population during the first 10 months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Evaluating Racial/Ethnic Differences in Care Escalation Among COVID-19 Patients in a Home-Based Hospital

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has infected over 414 million people worldwide with 5.8 million deaths, as of February 2022. Telemedicine-based interventions to expand healthcare systems' capacity and reduce infection risk have rapidly increased during the pandemic, despite concerns regarding equitable access. Atrium Health Hospital at Home (AH-HaH) is a home-based program that provides advanced, hospital-level medical care and monitoring for patients who would otherwise be hospitalized in a traditional setting. Our retrospective cohort study of positive COVID-19 patients who were admitted to AH-HaH aims to investigate whether the rate of care escalation from AH-HaH to traditional hospitalization differed based on patients' racial/ethnic backgrounds. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between care escalation within 14 days from index AH-HaH admission and race/ethnicity. We found approximately one in five patients receiving care for COVID-19 in AH-HaH required care escalation within 14 days. Odds of care escalation were not significantly different for Hispanic or non-Hispanic Blacks compared to non-Hispanic Whites. However, secondary analyses showed that both Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black patients were younger and with fewer comorbidities than non-Hispanic Whites. The study highlights the need for new care models to vigilantly monitor for disparities, so that timely and tailored adaptations can be implemented for vulnerable populations.

Racial, Ethnic, and Rural Disparities in US Veteran COVID-19 Vaccine Rates

Background

Race, ethnicity, and rurality-related disparities in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine uptake have been documented in the United States (US).

Objective

We determined whether these disparities existed among patients at the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), the largest healthcare system in the US.

Design Settings Participants Measurements

Using VA Corporate Data Warehouse data, we included 5,871,438 patients (9.4% women) with at least one primary care visit in 2019 in a retrospective cohort study. Each patient was assigned a single race/ethnicity, which were mutually exclusive, self-reported categories. Rurality was based on 2019 home address at the zip code level. Our primary outcome was time-to-first COVID-19 vaccination between December 15, 2020-June 15, 2021. Additional covariates included age (in years), sex, geographic region (North Atlantic, Midwest, Southeast, Pacific, Continental), smoking status (current, former, never), Charlson Comorbidity Index (based on ≥1 inpatient or two outpatient ICD codes), service connection (any/none, using standardized VA-cutoffs for disability compensation), and influenza vaccination in 2019-2020 (yes/no).

Results

Compared with unvaccinated patients, those vaccinated (n=3,238,532; 55.2%) were older (mean age in years vaccinated=66.3, (standard deviation=14.4) vs. unvaccinated=57.7, (18.0), p<.0001)). They were more likely to identify as Black (18.2% vs. 16.1%, p<.0001), Hispanic (7.0% vs. 6.6% p<.0001), or Asian American/Pacific Islander (AA/PI) (2.0% vs. 1.7%, P<.0001). In addition, they were more likely to reside in urban settings (68.0% vs. 62.8, p<.0001). Relative to non-Hispanic White urban Veterans, the reference group for race/ethnicity-urban/rural hazard ratios reported, all urban race/ethnicity groups were associated with increased likelihood for vaccination except American Indian/Alaskan Native (AI/AN) groups. Urban Black groups were 12% more likely (Hazard Ratio (HR)=1.12 [CI 1.12-1.13]) and rural Black groups were 6% more likely to receive a first vaccination (HR=1.06 [1.05-1.06]) relative to white urban groups. Urban Hispanic, AA/PI and Mixed groups were more likely to receive vaccination while rural members of these groups were less likely (Hispanic: Urban HR=1.17 [1.16-1.18], Rural HR=0.98 [0.97-0.99]; AA/PI: Urban HR=1.22 [1.21-1.23], Rural HR=0.86 [0.84-0.88]). Rural White Veterans were 21% less likely to receive an initial vaccine compared with urban White Veterans (HR=0.79 [0.78-0.79]). AI/AN groups were less likely to receive vaccination regardless of rurality: Urban HR=0.93 [0.91-0.95]; AI/AN-Rural HR=0.76 [0.74-0.78].

Conclusions

Urban Black, Hispanic, and AA/PI Veterans were more likely than their urban White counterparts to receive a first vaccination; all rural race/ethnicity groups except Black patients had lower likelihood for vaccination compared with urban White patients. A better understanding of disparities and rural outreach will inform equitable vaccine distribution.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in children worldwide: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The higher hospitalisation rates of those aged 0-19 years (referred to herein as 'children') observed since the emergence of the immune-evasive SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and subvariants, along with the persisting vaccination disparities highlighted a need for in-depth knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 sero-epidemiology in children. Here, we conducted this systematic review to assess SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and determinants in children worldwide.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis study, we searched international and preprinted scientific databases from December 1, 2019 to July 10, 2022. Pooled seroprevalences were estimated according to World Health Organization (WHO) regions (at 95% confidence intervals, CIs) using random-effects meta-analyses. Associations with SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and sources of heterogeneity were investigated using sub-group and meta-regression analyses. The protocol used in this study has been registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022350833).

FINDINGS

We included 247 studies involving 757,075 children from 70 countries. Seroprevalence estimates varied from 7.3% (5.8-9.1%) in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic to 37.6% (18.1-59.4%) in the fifth wave and 56.6% (52.8-60.5%) in the sixth wave. The highest seroprevalences in different pandemic waves were estimated for South-East Asia (17.9-81.8%) and African (17.2-66.1%) regions; while the lowest seroprevalence was estimated for the Western Pacific region (0.01-1.01%). Seroprevalence estimates were higher in children at older ages, in those living in underprivileged countries or regions, and in those of minority ethnic backgrounds.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings indicate that, by the end of 2021 and before the Omicron wave, around 50-70% of children globally were still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, clearly emphasising the need for more effective vaccines and better vaccination coverage among children and adolescents, particularly in developing countries and minority ethnic groups.

FUNDING

None.

A Novel Bayesian Spatial-Temporal Approach to Quantify SARS-CoV-2 Testing Disparities for Small Area Estimation

Objectives. To propose a novel Bayesian spatial-temporal approach to identify and quantify severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing disparities for small area estimation. Methods. In step 1, we used a Bayesian inseparable space-time model framework to estimate the testing positivity rate (TPR) at geographically granular areas of the census block groups (CBGs). In step 2, we adopted a rank-based approach to compare the estimated TPR and the testing rate to identify areas with testing deficiency and quantify the number of needed tests. We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 infection and testing surveillance data from Cameron County, Texas, between March 2020 and February 2022 to demonstrate the usefulness of our proposed approach. Results. We identified the CBGs that had experienced substantial testing deficiency, quantified the number of tests that should have been conducted in these areas, and evaluated the short- and long-term testing disparities. Conclusions. Our proposed analytical framework offers policymakers and public health practitioners a tool for understanding SARS-CoV-2 testing disparities in geographically small communities. It could also aid COVID-19 response planning and inform intervention programs to improve goal setting and strategy implementation in SARS-CoV-2 testing uptake. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(1):40-48. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.307127).

Racial/ethnic and nativity disparities in U.S. Covid-19 vaccination hesitancy during vaccine rollout and factors that explain them

While research has begun to investigate disparities in Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy between White, Black and Hispanic adults, no nationally representative studies to date have accounted for Hispanic immigrants as a unique group or fully investigated the reasons behind racial/ethnic and nativity disparities. We make these contributions by substantively drawing from what is known about the ways that immigrant fear and structural racism create conditions that produce countervailing forces that are likely to contribute to racial/ethnic and nativity disparities in vaccine hesitancy. We use OLS regression and decomposition techniques to analyze data from 1936 18-65 year-old United States (U.S.) adults who participated in the COVID-19 and its Implications for American Communities (CIAC) study during February and March 2021, a period of time that coincides with early stages of the U.S. vaccine roll-out effort that pre-dated universal adult eligibility for Covid-19 vaccination. Results indicate that U.S.-born Black adults are more vaccine hesitant than U.S.-born White adults. This disparity is largely due to differences in anti-vaccine beliefs. U.S.-born Hispanic adults are less vaccine hesitant than U.S.-born White adults in adjusted OLS regression models and personal experiences with Covid-19 drive this difference. There were not significant differences between foreign-born Hispanic and U.S.-born White adults in vaccine hesitancy. These findings suggest that foreign-born Hispanic adults did not drive early disparities in vaccine hesitancy and that alleviating concerns about anti-vaccine beliefs and utilizing personal stories have important roles in preventing future racial/ethnic disparities in Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy as new Covid-19 vaccines and booster shots are rolled out. Study findings may also have implications for reducing racial/ethnic disparities in the uptake of other new vaccines.

Temporal Variation in Individual Social Risk Factors Associated with Testing Positive for SARS-CoV-2 Among Veterans in the Veterans Health Administration

PURPOSE

Marginalized communities have been disproportionally impacted by SARS-CoV-2. How the associations between social determinants of health and the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection shifted across time is unknown. In this evaluation, we examine individual-level social determinants of health as social risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection across the first 12 months of the pandemic among US Veterans.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of 946,358 Veterans who sought testing or treatment for SARS-CoV-2 infection in U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) medical facilities. We estimated risk ratios for testing positive by social risk factors, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and time. Adjusted models were stratified by pandemic phase to assess temporal fluctuations in social risks.

RESULTS

Approximately 19% of Veterans tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Larger household size was a persistent risk factor and this association increased over time. Early in the pandemic, lower county-level population density was associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 infection risk, but between June 1- August 31, 2020, this trend reversed.

CONCLUSIONS

Temporal fluctuations in social risks associated with Veterans' SARS-CoV-2 infection suggest the need for ongoing, real-time tracking as the social and medical environment continues to evolve.

Population-Weighted Seroprevalence From Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection, Vaccination, and Hybrid Immunity Among US Blood Donations From January to December 2021

BACKGROUND

Previous severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination, independently and combined ("hybrid immunity"), result in partial protection from subsequent infection and strong protection from severe disease. Proportions of the US population who have been infected, vaccinated, or have hybrid immunity remain unclear, posing a challenge for assessing effective pandemic mitigation strategies.

METHODS

In this serial cross-sectional study, nationwide blood donor specimens collected during January-December 2021 were tested for anti-spike and anti-nucleocapsid antibodies, and donor COVID-19 vaccination history of ≥1 dose was collected. Monthly seroprevalence induced from SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 vaccination, or both, were estimated. Estimates were weighted to account for demographic differences from the general population and were compared temporally and by demographic factors.

RESULTS

Overall, 1 123 855 blood samples were assayed. From January to December 2021, the weighted percentage of donations with seropositivity changed as follows: seropositivity due to vaccination without previous infection, increase from 3.5% (95% confidence interval, 3.4%-3.7%) to 64.0%, (63.5%-64.5%); seropositivity due to previous infection without vaccination, decrease from 15.6% (15.2%-16.0%) to 11.7% (11.4%-12.0%); and seropositivity due to hybrid immunity, increase from 0.7% (0.6%-0.7%) to 18.9% (18.5%-19.3%). Combined seroprevalence from infection, vaccination, or both increased from 19.8% (19.3%-20.2%) to 94.5% (93.5%-94.0%). Infection- and vaccination-induced antibody responses varied significantly by age, race-ethnicity, and region, but not by sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate substantial increases in population humoral immunity from SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 vaccination, and hybrid immunity during 2021. These findings are important to consider in future COVID-19 studies and long-term pandemic mitigation efforts.

Health disparities and COVID-19: A retrospective study examining individual and community factors causing disproportionate COVID-19 outcomes in Cook County, Illinois

Early data from the COVID-19 pandemic suggests that the disease has had a disproportionate impact on communities of color with higher infection and mortality rates within those communities. This study used demographic data from the 2018 US census estimates, mortality data from the Cook County Medical Examiner’s office, and testing results from the Illinois Department of Public Health to perform bivariate and multivariate regression analyses to explore the role race plays in COVID-19 outcomes at the individual and community levels. We used the ZCTA Social Deprivation Index (SDI), a measure of ZCTA area level deprivation based on seven demographic characteristics to quantify the socio-economic variation in health outcomes and levels of disadvantage across ZCTAs. Principal findings showed that: 1) while Black individuals make up 22% of Cook County’s population, they account for 28% of the county’s COVID-19 related deaths; 2) the average age of death from COVID-19 is seven years younger for Non-White compared with White decedents; 3) residents of Minority ZCTA areas were 1.02 times as likely to test positive for COVID-19, (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 1.02, [95% CI 0.95, 1.10]); 1.77 times as likely to die (IRR 1.77, [95% CI 1.17, 2.66]); and were 1.15 times as likely to be tested (IRR 1.15, [95% CI 0.99, 1.33]). There are notable differences in COVID-19 related outcomes between racial and ethnic groups at individual and community levels. This study illustrates the health disparities and underlying systemic inequalities experienced by communities of color.