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Weinberger DM, Bhaskaran K, Korves C, Lucas BP, Columbo JA, Vashi A, Davies L, Justice AC, Rentsch CT. Excess mortality in US Veterans during the COVID-19 pandemic: an individual-level cohort study. Int J Epidemiol 2023; 52:1725-1734. [PMID: 37802889 PMCID: PMC10749763 DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyad136] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2023] [Accepted: 09/20/2023] [Indexed: 10/08/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Most analyses of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic have employed aggregate data. Individual-level data from the largest integrated healthcare system in the US may enhance understanding of excess mortality. METHODS We performed an observational cohort study following patients receiving care from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) between 1 March 2018 and 28 February 2022. We estimated excess mortality on an absolute scale (i.e. excess mortality rates, number of excess deaths) and a relative scale by measuring the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality comparing pandemic and pre-pandemic periods, overall and within demographic and clinical subgroups. Comorbidity burden and frailty were measured using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index, respectively. RESULTS Of 5 905 747 patients, the median age was 65.8 years and 91% were men. Overall, the excess mortality rate was 10.0 deaths/1000 person-years (PY), with a total of 103 164 excess deaths and pandemic HR of 1.25 (95% CI 1.25-1.26). Excess mortality rates were highest among the most frail patients (52.0/1000 PY) and those with the highest comorbidity burden (16.3/1000 PY). However, the largest relative mortality increases were observed among the least frail (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.30-1.32) and those with the lowest comorbidity burden (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.43-1.46). CONCLUSIONS Individual-level data offered crucial clinical and operational insights into US excess mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable differences emerged among clinical risk groups, emphasizing the need for reporting excess mortality in both absolute and relative terms to inform resource allocation in future outbreaks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel M Weinberger
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
- Center for Interdisciplinary Research on AIDS, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Krishnan Bhaskaran
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Caroline Korves
- Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Clinical Epidemiology Program, White River Junction, VT, USA
| | - Brian P Lucas
- Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, VA Outcomes Group, White River Junction, VT, USA
- The Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy & Clinical Practice, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Hanover, NH, USA
| | - Jesse A Columbo
- Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, VA Outcomes Group, White River Junction, VT, USA
- The Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy & Clinical Practice, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Hanover, NH, USA
- Section of Vascular Surgery, Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH, USA
| | - Anita Vashi
- Center for Innovation to Implementation, VA Palo Alto Health Care System, Menlo Park, CA, USA
- Department of Emergency Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Louise Davies
- Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, VA Outcomes Group, White River Junction, VT, USA
- The Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy & Clinical Practice, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Hanover, NH, USA
- Department of Surgery—Otolaryngology Head & Neck Surgery, Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth, Hanover, NH, USA
| | - Amy C Justice
- Center for Interdisciplinary Research on AIDS, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
- Department of Veterans Affairs, VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT, USA
| | - Christopher T Rentsch
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
- Department of Veterans Affairs, VA Connecticut Healthcare System, West Haven, CT, USA
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