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Ohsawa Y, Sun Y, Sekiguchi K, Kondo S, Maekawa T, Takita M, Tanimoto T, Kami M. Risk Index of Regional Infection Expansion in COVID19: Moving Direction Entropy using Mobility Data and Its Application to Tokyo. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024. [PMID: 39037745 DOI: 10.2196/57742] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/23/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Policies such as Staying Home, bubbling, and Staying with Your Community, recommending that individuals reduce contact with diverse communities, including families and schools, have been introduced to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these policies are violated if individuals from various communities gather - a latent risk in the real society where people move among various unreported communities. OBJECTIVE We aimed to create a physical index to assess the possibility of contact between individuals from diverse communities, which serves as an indicator of the potential risk of SARS-CoV-2 spread if taken into account combined with existing indices. METHODS Moving Direction Entropy (MDE), which quantifies the diversity of moving directions of individuals in each local region, is here proposed as an index to evaluate a region's risk of contacts of individuals from diverse communities. MDE was computed for each inland municipality in Tokyo using mobility data collected from smartphones from before to during the COVID-19 pandemic. To validate the hypothesis that the impact of inter-community contact on infection expansion becomes larger for a virus with larger infectivity, we compared the correlations of the expansion of infectious diseases with indices including MDE and the densities of supermarkets, restaurants, etc. In addition, we analyzed the temporal changes in MDE in municipalities. RESULTS First, the MDEs for local regions showed significant invariance between different periods according to Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (>0.9). Second, the MDE was found to correlate with the rate of infection cases of COVID-19 over local populations in the 53 inland regions: 0.76 in average during the periods of expansion. The density of restaurants had a similar correlation with COVID-19. The correlation with MDE was higher for COVID-19 than for influenza, which was higher than for sexually transmitted diseases, that is, in the order of infectivity, which supports the hypothesis in Methods. Third, the spread of COVID-19 was accelerated in regions with high-rank MDEs compared to those with high-rank restaurant densities during and after the period of governmental declarations of emergency (p < .001). Fourth, the MDEs tended to be high and increased during the pandemic period in regions where influx or daytime movement was active. A possible explanation for the third and fourth findings is that policymakers and living people have been overlooking MDE. CONCLUSIONS We propose monitoring the regional values of MDE to reduce the risk of infection spread. To aid in this monitoring, we present a method to create a heat map of MDE values, thereby drawing public attention to behaviors that facilitate contact between communities during a highly infectious disease pandemic. CLINICALTRIAL This study was not registered in a clinical trial registry because it used mobility data from smartphones and other available data, without trials.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yukio Ohsawa
- School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, JP
| | - Yi Sun
- School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, JP
| | - Kaira Sekiguchi
- School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, JP
| | - Sae Kondo
- School of Engineering, Mie University, 1577 Kurimamachiya-Cho, Tsu, Mie Prefecture, 514-8507 Japan, JP
- RCAST, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JP
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Qiao J, Nishiura H. Public holidays increased the transmission of COVID-19 in Japan, 2020-2021: a mathematical modelling study. Epidemiol Health 2024; 46:e2024025. [PMID: 38317530 PMCID: PMC11099593 DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2024025] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2023] [Accepted: 01/06/2024] [Indexed: 02/07/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Although the role of specific holidays in modifying transmission dynamics of infectious diseases has received some research attention, the epidemiological impact of public holidays on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remains unclear. METHODS To assess the extent of increased transmission frequency during public holidays, we collected COVID-19 incidence and mobility data in Hokkaido, Tokyo, Aichi, and Osaka from February 15, 2020 to September 30, 2021. Models linking the estimated effective reproduction number (Rt) with raw or adjusted mobility, public holidays, and the state of emergency declaration were developed. The best-fit model included public holidays as an essential input variable, and was used to calculate counterfactuals of Rt in the absence of holidays. RESULTS During public holidays, on average, Rt increased by 5.71%, 3.19%, 4.84%, and 24.82% in Hokkaido, Tokyo, Aichi, and Osaka, respectively, resulting in a total increase of 580 (95% confidence interval [CI], 213 to 954), 2,209 (95% CI, 1,230 to 3,201), 1,086 (95% CI, 478 to 1,686), and 5,211 (95% CI, 4,554 to 5,867) cases that were attributable to the impact of public holidays. CONCLUSIONS Public holidays intensified the transmission of COVID-19, highlighting the importance of considering public holidays in designing appropriate public health and social measures in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiaying Qiao
- School of Public Health, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
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Ondrikova N, Clough H, Douglas A, Vivancos R, Itturiza-Gomara M, Cunliffe N, Harris JP. Comparison of statistical approaches to predicting norovirus laboratory reports before and during COVID-19: insights to inform public health surveillance. Sci Rep 2023; 13:21457. [PMID: 38052922 PMCID: PMC10697939 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-48069-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2023] [Accepted: 11/22/2023] [Indexed: 12/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Social distancing interrupted transmission patterns of contact-driven infectious agents such as norovirus during the Covid-19 pandemic. Since routine surveillance of norovirus was additionally disrupted during the pandemic, traditional naïve forecasts that rely only on past public health surveillance data may not reliably represent norovirus activity. This study investigates the use of statistical modelling to predict the number of norovirus laboratory reports in England 4-weeks ahead of time before and during Covid-19 pandemic thus providing insights to inform existing practices in norovirus surveillance in England. We compare the predictive performance from three forecasting approaches that assume different underlying structure of the norovirus data and utilized various external data sources including mobility, air temperature and relative internet searches (Time Series and Regularized Generalized Linear Model, and Quantile Regression Forest). The performance of each approach was evaluated using multiple metrics, including a relative prediction error against the traditional naive forecast of a five-season mean. Our data suggest that all three forecasting approaches improve predictive performance over the naïve forecasts, especially in the 2020/21 season (30-45% relative improvement) when the number of norovirus reports reduced. The improvement ranged from 7 to 22% before the pandemic. However, performance varied: regularized regression incorporating internet searches showed the best forecasting score pre-pandemic and the time series approach achieved the best results post pandemic onset without external data. Overall, our results demonstrate that there is a significant value for public health in considering the adoption of more sophisticated forecasting tools, moving beyond traditional naïve methods, and utilizing available software to enhance the precision and timeliness of norovirus surveillance in England.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nikola Ondrikova
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
- Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Gastrointestinal Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
| | - Helen Clough
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Gastrointestinal Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Amy Douglas
- National Surveillance Gastrointestinal Pathogens Unit, UK Health Security Agency, London, UK
| | - Roberto Vivancos
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Gastrointestinal Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
- Health Protection Operations, UK Health Security Agency, Liverpool, UK
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | | | - Nigel Cunliffe
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Gastrointestinal Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - John P Harris
- Health Protection Operations, UK Health Security Agency, Liverpool, UK
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Shen X, Yuan H, Jia W, Li Y, Zhao L. An analysis of the spatio-temporal behavior of COVID-19 patients using activity trajectory data. Heliyon 2023; 9:e20681. [PMID: 37867866 PMCID: PMC10585215 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20681] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/21/2023] [Revised: 09/21/2023] [Accepted: 10/04/2023] [Indexed: 10/24/2023] Open
Abstract
During the global pandemic, COVID-19 patients' activity trajectories and actions emerge as revelatory conduits elucidating their spatiotemporal behavior and transmission dynamics. This study analyzes COVID-19 patients' behavior in Nanjing and Yangzhou, China, by using patient activity trajectory data in conjunction with complex network theory. The main findings are as follows: (1) The evaluation of the activity network structure of patients revealed that "residential areas" and "vegetable markets" had the highest betweenness centrality, indicating that these are the primary nodes of COVID-19 transmission. (2) The power-law distribution of the degree distribution of nodes for different facility types revealed that residential areas, vegetable markets, and shopping malls had the most scale-free characteristics, indicating that a large number of patients visited these three facility types at a few access points. (3) Community detection showed that patient visitation sites in Nanjing and Yangzhou were divided into five or six communities, with the largest community containing the outbreak origin and several residential areas surrounding it. (4) Patients had fewer activities across administrative regions but more activities across the life circle when the pandemic broke out in the suburbs, and more activities across administrative regions but fewer activities across the life circle when the pandemic broke out in the central city. Based on these findings, this paper makes recommendations for future pandemic preparedness in an effort to achieve effective pandemic control and reduce the damage caused by pandemics. Overall, this study provides insights into understanding the transmission patterns of COVID-19 and may inform future pandemic control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiumei Shen
- School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210019, Jiangsu, China
| | - Hao Yuan
- School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210019, Jiangsu, China
| | | | - Ying Li
- School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210019, Jiangsu, China
| | - Liang Zhao
- School of Energy and Environment, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan, 056038, Hebei, China
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Ha TV, Asada T, Arimura M. Changes in mobility amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Sapporo City, Japan: An investigation through the relationship between spatiotemporal population density and urban facilities. TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH INTERDISCIPLINARY PERSPECTIVES 2023; 17:100744. [PMID: 36590070 PMCID: PMC9790881 DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2022.100744] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2022] [Revised: 12/10/2022] [Accepted: 12/24/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
By the end of 2021, the Omicron variant of coronavirus disease 2019 had become the dominant cause of a worldwide pandemic crisis. This demands a deeper analysis to support policy makers in creating interventions that not only protect people from the pandemic but also remedy its negative effects on the economy. Thus, this study investigated people's mobility changes through the relationship between spatiotemporal population density and urban facilities. Results showed that places related to daily services, restaurants, commercial areas, and offices experienced decreased visits, with the highest decline belonging to commercial facilities. Visits to health care and production facilities were stable on weekdays but increased on holidays. Educational institutions' visits decreased on weekdays but increased on holidays. People's visits to residential housing and open spaces increased, with the rise in residential housing visits being more substantial. The results also confirmed that policy interventions (e.g., declaration of emergency and upgrade of restriction level) have a great impact on people's mobility in the short term. The findings would seem to indicate that visit patterns at service and restaurant places decreased least during the pandemic. The analysis outcomes suggest that policy makers should pay more attention to risk perception enhancement as a long-term measure. Furthermore, the study clarified the population density of each facility type in a time series. Improving model performance would be promising for tracking and predicting the spread of future pandemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tran Vinh Ha
- Division of Sustainable and Environmental Engineering, Muroran Institute of Technology, ₸ 050-8585, 27-1 Mizumoto-cho, Muroran, Hokkaido, Japan
| | - Takumi Asada
- Division of Sustainable and Environmental Engineering, Muroran Institute of Technology, ₸ 050-8585, 27-1 Mizumoto-cho, Muroran, Hokkaido, Japan
| | - Mikiharu Arimura
- Division of Sustainable and Environmental Engineering, Muroran Institute of Technology, ₸ 050-8585, 27-1 Mizumoto-cho, Muroran, Hokkaido, Japan
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