Comparison of statistical approaches to predicting norovirus laboratory reports before and during COVID-19: insights to inform public health surveillance

Social distancing interrupted transmission patterns of contact-driven infectious agents such as norovirus during the Covid-19 pandemic. Since routine surveillance of norovirus was additionally disrupted during the pandemic, traditional naïve forecasts that rely only on past public health surveillance data may not reliably represent norovirus activity. This study investigates the use of statistical modelling to predict the number of norovirus laboratory reports in England 4-weeks ahead of time before and during Covid-19 pandemic thus providing insights to inform existing practices in norovirus surveillance in England. We compare the predictive performance from three forecasting approaches that assume different underlying structure of the norovirus data and utilized various external data sources including mobility, air temperature and relative internet searches (Time Series and Regularized Generalized Linear Model, and Quantile Regression Forest). The performance of each approach was evaluated using multiple metrics, including a relative prediction error against the traditional naive forecast of a five-season mean. Our data suggest that all three forecasting approaches improve predictive performance over the naïve forecasts, especially in the 2020/21 season (30-45% relative improvement) when the number of norovirus reports reduced. The improvement ranged from 7 to 22% before the pandemic. However, performance varied: regularized regression incorporating internet searches showed the best forecasting score pre-pandemic and the time series approach achieved the best results post pandemic onset without external data. Overall, our results demonstrate that there is a significant value for public health in considering the adoption of more sophisticated forecasting tools, moving beyond traditional naïve methods, and utilizing available software to enhance the precision and timeliness of norovirus surveillance in England.

Pre- and Post-Treatment Patient-Reported Financial Toxicity in Head and Neck Cancer: Identifying Influential Factors and Clinical Significance

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Head and neck cancer patients are at high-risk for financial stress due to the often complex, time-consuming, and expensive treatments that can impact physical function and quality of life. It is important to identify factors that affect financial toxicity early on in treatment and to help mitigate their effects. The goals of this study are to assess patient-reported financial toxicity prior to and after completion of radiation therapy (RT) and to uncover any interactions with socioeconomic factors, quality of life, treatment satisfaction, and treatment adherence.

MATERIALS/METHODS

A total of 80 patients who were evaluated for RT to the head and neck region between July 2021 and December 2022 and had completed surveys prior to the initiation of RT were included. Surveys included the FACIT-COST and FACIT-TS-G. Patient clinical information and demographics were collected. Linear regression was used to evaluate categorical variables and Pearson correlation was used to evaluate continuous variables and their associations with COST.

RESULTS

The median pre-RT COST was 29.5 (range 4-44) with lower scores indicating worse financial toxicity. The majority of patients were white (69%), non-Hispanic (75%), and English-speaking (75%). 65% had Medicare, 14% had Medicaid, and 21% had other insurance. 60 of 80 (75%) patients ultimately underwent RT at our institution. 34 (57%) missed at least one day of scheduled RT fractions and 11 (14%) patients had G-tubes placed. Lower COST was associated with decreased age, thyroid primary disease, advanced stage, metastatic disease, Medicaid insurance, Hispanic ethnicity, unemployment, and G-tube placement. Higher COST was associated with cutaneous primary disease and ability to speak English, while Medicare insurance trended toward significance. 18 of 80 patients (23%) completed follow-up surveys post-RT and 9 reported a decrease in COST. At baseline, the standard deviation of the COST was 10.6. Effect size was defined as the number of standard deviation change. Mean decrease in COST was 9.4 (effect size of 89%). Mean FACT-TS-G was lower, indicating decreased treatment satisfaction, for these patients as compared to those that had the same or increased COST compared to baseline, (17.4 vs. 22.7, p < 0.01). There were more missed RT days, 4 vs. 1, and G-tube placements, 2 vs. 0, in those with decreased COST as well.

CONCLUSION

Worse baseline financial toxicity was associated with younger age, advanced stage, metastatic disease, Medicaid insurance, unemployment, and G-tube placement. Those that reported worsened financial toxicity after RT reported worse treatment satisfaction and had more missed RT days and G-tube placements. These findings support work to better understand financial toxicity as it may predict those at higher risk of missing treatments, particularly crucial considering prolonged RT duration is linked to poorer outcomes. Future efforts will focus on automating early referrals to case managers and social work services for these patients.

Severity of Financial Toxicity for Patients Receiving Palliative Radiation Therapy

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

Patients receiving palliative radiotherapy (RT) are often at their most vulnerable state, but the impact of financial toxicity on their health and quality of life (QOL) is not well-described. We set out to determine the degree of financial toxicity in a population undergoing palliative RT.

MATERIALS/METHODS

A review of patients referred for palliative RT at our site was conducted. Financial toxicity was determined with COST-FACIT, and previously suggested grading cutoffs were used. Additional patient-reported outcome (PRO) instruments included the EORTC overall health and quality of life questions and the FACIT-TS-G (treatment satisfaction). Multiple imputations by chained equations using predictive mean matching were used for incomplete responses. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, Kruskal-Wallis testing, and linear regressions were used to measure associations.

RESULTS

A total of 53 patients were identified who had completed PRO surveys between May 2021 and December 2022. Median COST was 25 (range 0-44), with lower scores indicating greater financial toxicity. 49% reported grade 0 financial toxicity (COST ≥26), 32% had grade 1 financial toxicity (COST 14-25), 19% had grade 2 financial toxicity (COST 1-13), and 6% had grade 3 financial toxicity (COST = 0). Overall, cancer caused financial hardship among 45%. Higher COST was moderately associated with higher overall health (rho = 0.36, p = 0.02) and weakly associated with higher QOL (rho = 0.28, p = 0.07). From a demographic standpoint, median area family income from census tract data was $98,598 (range $32,303-$190,833), and higher income was associated with higher COST (rho = 0.47, p<0.001). Having Medicare (beta = 13.8, p = 0.003) or private (beta = 13.5, p = 0.001) coverage (rather than Medicaid) were associated with less financial toxicity, whereas having an underrepresented minority background (beta = -13.2, p<0.001), or having a non-English language preference (rho = 0.40, p = 0.003) were associated with greater financial toxicity. Median time from diagnosis was 12.9 mo, and 40% of patients had ≥2 prior systemic therapies. The median RT dose was 25 Gy (range 4-45 Gy). The most common irradiated sites included spine (24%), non-spine bones (21%), brain (18%), and lung/mediastinum (18%). COST was not associated with number of prior systemic therapies (p = 0.31), RT dose (p = 0.83), RT technique (p = 0.86), or treatment satisfaction (p = 0.34). Median follow up was 8.0 months, and median 6-month survival was 83% (95% CI 73%-95%). Inferior OS was associated with more prior systemic therapies (HR 3.43, p = 0.03), but not with COST (HR 1.01, p = 0.67).

CONCLUSION

Financial toxicity was seen in approximately half of patients receiving palliative RT. Patient-reported overall health, Medicaid coverage, and area income correlated well with financial toxicity, but the investigated clinical characteristics did not. This supports the hypothesis that financial toxicity is common and a unique factor that should be measured in cancer patients.

Predicting Norovirus in England Using Existing and Emerging Syndromic Data: Infodemiology Study

BACKGROUND

Norovirus is associated with approximately 18% of the global burden of gastroenteritis and affects all age groups. There is currently no licensed vaccine or available antiviral treatment. However, well-designed early warning systems and forecasting can guide nonpharmaceutical approaches to norovirus infection prevention and control.

OBJECTIVE

This study evaluates the predictive power of existing syndromic surveillance data and emerging data sources, such as internet searches and Wikipedia page views, to predict norovirus activity across a range of age groups across England.

METHODS

We used existing syndromic surveillance and emerging syndromic data to predict laboratory data indicating norovirus activity. Two methods are used to evaluate the predictive potential of syndromic variables. First, the Granger causality framework was used to assess whether individual variables precede changes in norovirus laboratory reports in a given region or an age group. Then, we used random forest modeling to estimate the importance of each variable in the context of others with two methods: (1) change in the mean square error and (2) node purity. Finally, these results were combined into a visualization indicating the most influential predictors for norovirus laboratory reports in a specific age group and region.

RESULTS

Our results suggest that syndromic surveillance data include valuable predictors for norovirus laboratory reports in England. However, Wikipedia page views are less likely to provide prediction improvements on top of Google Trends and Existing Syndromic Data. Predictors displayed varying relevance across age groups and regions. For example, the random forest modeling based on selected existing and emerging syndromic variables explained 60% variance in the ≥65 years age group, 42% in the East of England, but only 13% in the South West region. Emerging data sets highlighted relative search volumes, including "flu symptoms," "norovirus in pregnancy," and norovirus activity in specific years, such as "norovirus 2016." Symptoms of vomiting and gastroenteritis in multiple age groups were identified as important predictors within existing data sources.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing and emerging data sources can help predict norovirus activity in England in some age groups and geographic regions, particularly, predictors concerning vomiting, gastroenteritis, and norovirus in the vulnerable populations and historical terms such as stomach flu. However, syndromic predictors were less relevant in some age groups and regions likely due to contrasting public health practices between regions and health information-seeking behavior between age groups. Additionally, predictors relevant to one norovirus season may not contribute to other seasons. Data biases, such as low spatial granularity in Google Trends and especially in Wikipedia data, also play a role in the results. Moreover, internet searches can provide insight into mental models, that is, an individual's conceptual understanding of norovirus infection and transmission, which could be used in public health communication strategies.

Can cases and outbreaks of norovirus in children provide an early warning of seasonal norovirus infection: an analysis of nine seasons of surveillance data in England UK

Background

Children are important transmitters of norovirus infection and there is evidence that laboratory reports in children increase earlier in the norovirus season than in adults. This raises the question as to whether cases and outbreaks in children could provide an early warning of seasonal norovirus before cases start increasing in older, more vulnerable age groups.

Methods

This study uses weekly national surveillance data on reported outbreaks within schools, care homes and hospitals, general practice (GP) consultations for infectious intestinal disease (IID), telehealth calls for diarrhoea and/or vomiting and laboratory norovirus reports from across England, UK for nine norovirus seasons (2010/11–2018/19). Lagged correlation analysis was undertaken to identify lead or lag times between cases in children and those in adults for each surveillance dataset. A partial correlation analysis explored whether school outbreaks provided a lead time ahead of other surveillance indicators, controlling for breaks in the data due to school holidays. A breakpoint analysis was used to identify which surveillance indicator and age group provided the earliest warning of the norovirus season each year.

Results

School outbreaks occurred 3-weeks before care home and hospital outbreaks, norovirus laboratory reports and NHS 111 calls for diarrhoea, and provided a 2-week lead time ahead of NHS 111 calls for vomiting. Children provided a lead time ahead of adults for norovirus laboratory reports (+ 1–2 weeks), NHS 111 calls for vomiting (+ 1 week) and NHS 111 calls for diarrhoea (+ 1 week) but occurred concurrently with adults for GP consultations. Breakpoint analysis revealed an earlier seasonal increase in cases among children compared to adults for laboratory, GP and NHS 111 data, with school outbreaks increasing earlier than other surveillance indicators in five out of nine surveillance years.

Conclusion

These findings suggest that monitoring cases and outbreaks of norovirus in children could provide an early warning of seasonal norovirus infection. However, both school outbreak data and syndromic surveillance data are not norovirus specific and will also capture other causes of IID. The use of school outbreak data as an early warning indicator may be improved by enhancing sampling in community outbreaks to confirm the causative organism.

Symptom profiling for infectious intestinal disease (IID): Do symptom profiles alter with age?

Symptom profiles have previously been identified for infectious intestinal disease (IID) which distinguish bacterial from viral organisms. However, there is evidence that the seasonality, severity, and duration of IID may differ between children, adults and elderly. A secondary data analysis was undertaken to explore whether symptom profiles for bacterial and viral IID vary across different age groups. Data from 844 cases of IID were divided into three age categories: <16 years, 16–65 years and >65 years. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to compare the significance of different symptoms across the three age groups. The odds of bacterial IID in children were increased by onset in the summer, diarrhoea in the absence of vomiting and fever. These symptoms were also associated with lower odds of a viral pathogen. In adults, diarrhoea but no vomiting, bloody diarrhoea and diarrhoea lasting more than 3 days were associated with increased odds of a bacterial organism, whilst onset in the winter or spring and a loss of appetite were associated with viral IID. In the elderly, diarrhoea in the absence of vomiting and diarrhoea lasting more than 3 days were associated with higher odds of bacterial IID and lower odds of a viral cause. Only diarrhoea in the absence of vomiting emerged as a key symptom across all three age groups. Variation in symptom profiles by age has implications for clinicians, public health specialists and epidemiologists who use symptoms to guide presumptive diagnoses in the absence of microbiological confirmation.

School Attendance Registers for the Syndromic Surveillance of Infectious Intestinal Disease in UK Children: Protocol for a Retrospective Analysis

Background

Infectious intestinal disease (IID) is common, and children are more likely than adults both to have IID and to transmit infection onto others. Before the introduction of the vaccine, rotavirus was the leading cause of severe childhood diarrhea, with norovirus and Campylobacter predominate pathogens. Public health surveillance of IID is primarily based on health care data, and as such, illness that is managed within the community will often go undetected. School attendance registers offer a novel data set that has the potential to identify community cases and outbreaks of IID that would otherwise be missed by current health surveillance systems. Although studies have explored the role of school attendance registers in the monitoring of influenza among children, no studies have been identified that consider this approach in the surveillance of IID.

Objective

The aim of this study is to explore the role and utility of school attendance registers in the detection and surveillance of IID in children. The secondary aims are to estimate the burden of IID on school absenteeism and to assess the impact of the rotavirus vaccine on illness absence among school-aged children.

Methods

This study is a retrospective analysis of school attendance registers to investigate whether school absences due to illness can be used to capture seasonal trends and outbreaks of infectious intestinal disease among school-aged children. School absences in Merseyside, United Kingdom will be compared and combined with routine health surveillance data from primary care, laboratories, and telehealth services. These data will be used to model spatial and temporal variations in the incidence of IID and to apportion likely causes to changes in school absenteeism trends. This will be used to assess the potential utility of school attendance data in the surveillance of IID and to estimate the burden of IID absenteeism in schools. It will also inform an analysis of the impact of the rotavirus vaccine on disease within this age group.

Results

This study has received ethical approval from the University of Liverpool Research Ethics Committee (reference number 1819). Use of general practice data has been approved for the evaluation of rotavirus vaccination in Merseyside by NHS Research Ethics Committee, South Central-Berkshire REC Reference 14/SC/1140.

Conclusions

This study is unique in considering whether school attendance registers could be used to enhance the surveillance of IID. Such data have multiple potential applications and could improve the identification of outbreaks within schools, allowing early intervention to reduce transmission both within and outside of school settings. These data have the potential to act as an early warning system, identifying infections circulating within the community before they enter health care settings. School attendance data could also inform the evaluation of vaccination programs, such as rotavirus and, in time, norovirus.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/30078

Differential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on laboratory reporting of norovirus and Campylobacter in England: A modelling approach

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted surveillance activities for multiple pathogens. Since March 2020, there was a decline in the number of reports of norovirus and Campylobacter recorded by England’s national laboratory surveillance system. The aim is to estimate and compare the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on norovirus and Campylobacter surveillance data in England.

Methods

We utilised two quasi-experimental approaches based on a generalised linear model for sequential count data. The first approach estimates overall impact and the second approach focuses on the impact of specific elements of the pandemic response (COVID-19 diagnostic testing and control measures). The following time series (27, 2015–43, 2020) were used: weekly laboratory-confirmed norovirus and Campylobacter reports, air temperature, conducted Sars-CoV-2 tests and Index of COVID-19 control measures stringency.

Results

The period of Sars-CoV-2 emergence and subsequent sustained transmission was associated with persistent reductions in norovirus laboratory reports (p = 0.001), whereas the reductions were more pronounced during pandemic emergence and later recovered for Campylobacter (p = 0.075). The total estimated reduction was 47% - 79% for norovirus (12–43, 2020). The total reduction varied by time for Campylobacter, e.g. 19% - 33% in April, 1% - 7% in August.

Conclusion

Laboratory reporting of norovirus was more adversely impacted than Campylobacter by the COVID-19 pandemic. This may be partially explained by a comparatively stronger effect of behavioural interventions on norovirus transmission and a relatively greater reduction in norovirus testing capacity. Our study underlines the differential impact a pandemic may have on surveillance of gastrointestinal infectious diseases.

School-based surveillance of acute infectious disease in children: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Syndromic surveillance systems are an essential component of public health surveillance and can provide timely detection of infectious disease cases and outbreaks. Whilst surveillance systems are generally embedded within healthcare, there is increasing interest in novel data sources for monitoring trends in illness, such as over-the-counter purchases, internet-based health searches and worker absenteeism. This systematic review considers the utility of school attendance registers in the surveillance of infectious disease outbreaks and occurrences amongst children.

METHODS

We searched eight databases using key words related to school absence, infectious disease and syndromic surveillance. Studies were limited to those published after 1st January 1995. Studies based in nursery schools or higher education settings were excluded. Article screening was undertaken by two independent reviewers using agreed eligibility criteria. Data extraction was performed using a standardised data extraction form. Outcomes included estimates of absenteeism, correlation with existing surveillance systems and associated lead or lag times.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies met the inclusion criteria, all of which were concerned with the surveillance of influenza. The specificity of absence data varied between all-cause absence, illness absence and syndrome-specific absence. Systems differed in terms of the frequency of data submissions from schools and the level of aggregation of the data. Baseline rates of illness absence varied between 2.3-3.7%, with peak absences ranging between 4.1-9.8%. Syndrome-specific absenteeism had the strongest correlation with other surveillance systems (r = 0.92), with illness absenteeism generating mixed results and all-cause absenteeism performing the least well. A similar pattern of results emerged in terms of lead and lag times, with influenza-like illness (ILI)-specific absence providing a 1-2 week lead time, compared to lag times reported for all-cause absence data and inconsistent results for illness absence data.

CONCLUSION

Syndrome-specific school absences have potential utility in the syndromic surveillance of influenza, demonstrating good correlation with healthcare surveillance data and a lead time of 1-2 weeks ahead of existing surveillance measures. Further research should consider the utility of school attendance registers for conditions other than influenza, to broaden our understanding of the potential application of this data for infectious disease surveillance in children.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO 2019 CRD42019119737.

Use of routine death and illness surveillance data to provide insight for UK pandemic planning: lessons from COVID-19

OBJECTIVES

Reporting of COVID-19 cases, deaths and testing has often lacked context for appropriate assessment of disease burden within risk groups. The research considers how routine surveillance data might provide initial insights and identify risk factors, setting COVID-19 deaths early in the pandemic into context. This will facilitate the understanding of wider consequences of a pandemic from the earliest stage, reducing fear, aiding in accurately assessing disease burden and ensuring appropriate disease mitigation.

SETTING

UK, 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

The study is a secondary analysis of routine, public domain, surveillance data and information from Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Health Service (NHS) 111 and Public Health England (PHE) on deaths and disease.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Our principal focus is ONS data on deaths mentioning COVID-19 on the death certificate. We also consider information provided in NHS 111 and PHE data summaries.

RESULTS

Deaths with COVID-19 significantly contributed to, yet do not entirely explain, abnormally elevated all-cause mortality in the UK from weeks 12-18 of 2020. Early in the UK epidemic, COVID-19 was the greatest threat to those with underlying illness, rarely endangering people aged under 40 years. COVID-19-related death rates differed by region, possibly reflecting underlying population structure. Risk of COVID-19-related death was greater for healthcare and social care staff and black, Asian and minority ethnic individuals, having allowed for documented risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Early contextualisation of public health data is critical to recognising who gets sick, when and why. Understanding at-risk groups facilitates a targeted response considering indirect consequences of society's reaction to a pandemic alongside disease-related impacts. COVID-19-related deaths mainly mirror historical patterns, and excess non-COVID-19-related deaths partly reflect reduced access to and uptake of healthcare during lockdown. Future outbreak response will improve through better understanding of connectivity between disease monitoring systems to aid interpretation of disease risk patterns, facilitating nuanced mitigation measures.

Transmission routes of rare seasonal diseases: the case of norovirus infections

Norovirus (NoV) is the most commonly recognized cause of acute gastroenteritis, with over a million cases globally per year. While usually self-limiting, NoV poses a substantial economic burden because it is highly contagious and there are multiple transmission routes. Infection occurs through inhalation of vomitus; faecal-oral spread; and food, water and environmental contamination. While the incidence of the disease is predictably seasonal, much less is known about the relative contribution of the various exposure pathways in causing disease. Additionally, asymptomatic excretion and viral shedding make forecasting disease burden difficult. We develop a novel stochastic dynamic network model to investigate the contributions of different transmission pathways in multiple coupled social networks representing schools, hospitals, care-homes and family households in a community setting. We analyse how the networks impact on transmission. We used ward-level demographic data from Northumberland, UK to create a simulation cohort. We compared the results with extant data on NoV cases from the IID2 study. Connectivity across the simulated cohort was high. Cases of NoV showed marked seasonality, peaking in early winter and declining through the summer. For the first time, we show that fomites and food appear to be the most important exposure routes in determining the population burden of disease. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

What proportion of care home outbreaks are caused by norovirus? An analysis of viral causes of gastroenteritis outbreaks in care homes, North East England, 2016-2018

BACKGROUND

Outbreaks of infectious gastroenteritis are common in care homes for the elderly. Norovirus can cause these outbreaks, but diagnosis is frequently based solely on clinical characteristics. Our objective in this study was to describe the epidemiology of norovirus and other gastrointestinal pathogens in these settings.

METHODS

We analysed surveillance data from gastroenteritis outbreaks reported in North East England between 04 July 2016 to 01 July 2018. Stool samples taken during these outbreaks were tested for a range of viral and bacterial pathogens. We described the epidemiology of these outbreaks and explored the characteristics of norovirus outbreaks versus from other viral causes using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

From the 566 care home gastroenteritis outbreaks in this study, we found that norovirus was the pathogen most frequently isolated. Norovirus was detected in 64% of outbreaks with a pathogen identified. Sapovirus was found in 13%; rotavirus in 11%. We found that norovirus outbreaks were associated with higher attack rates (aOR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05) and fewer cases sampled (aOR 0.74, 95% CI 0.60-0.91), compared to outbreaks caused by other viral pathogens.

CONCLUSIONS

These results are important as they quantify the contribution of norovirus to gastroenteritis outbreaks in care homes. Given this evidence, we emphasize the importance of non-specific outbreak interventions that can affect the impact of all such outbreaks. We further recommend that these findings are used to inform the implementation strategies of any norovirus-specific interventions such as a norovirus vaccine.

Epidemiology and genotype diversity of norovirus infections among children aged <5 years following rotavirus vaccine introduction in Blantyre, Malawi

BACKGROUND

Following rotavirus vaccine introduction, norovirus has emerged as a significant pathogen associated with acute gastroenteritis among children in some high- and middle-income countries. In a case-control study following rotavirus vaccination in Malawi, we used PCR to test for multiple enteric pathogens in fecal samples from children aged <5 years hospitalized with diarrhea, and from asymptomatic community controls (Iturriza-Gómara et al. 2019).

OBJECTIVES

To describe the epidemiology and genotype diversity of norovirus infections among infants and young children in Blantyre, Malawi, following rotavirus vaccine introduction in 2012.

STUDY DESIGN

We analysed data from the case-control study to assess annual and agespecific norovirus prevalence and the presence of co-infection. Norovirus-containing specimens were amplified by PCR and sequenced to determined genotype.

RESULTS

Norovirus prevalence in cases was similar for each complete year of study (11.4% in 2013, 9.3% in 2014 and 11.2% in 2015). Prevalence of norovirus among children aged <6 months, 6-11 months, 12-23 months and 24+ months was 15.3% (11/72), 13.3% (44/331), 11.0% (24/219) and 6.6% (4/61) respectively in cases and 6.7% (2/30), 13.1% (30/229), 4.2% (8/192) and 7.1 (5/70) in controls. Co-pathogens were commonly detected in norovirus positive cases (77/83) and controls (44/45). Norovirus GII.4 was the most commonly identified genotype, comprising 48% and 41% of genotyped strains among cases and controls, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Norovirus disease prevalence was unchanged during the study period, and was greatest amongst infants. Frequent co-infection and asymptomatic shedding suggests intense community transmission of norovirus and other enteric pathogens in this low-income, African setting.

Prospective cohort study to investigate the burden and transmission of acute gastroenteritis in care homes: epidemiological results

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the incidence of gastroenteritis in individuals in care homes.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Five participating care homes in North West England, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Residents and staff present at the five study care homes between 15 August 2017 and 30 May 2019 (n=268).

OUTCOME MEASURES

We calculated incidence rates for all gastroenteritis cases per 1000 person-years at risk and per 1000 bed-days at risk. We also calculated the incidence rate of gastroenteritis outbreaks per 100 care homes per year.

RESULTS

In total 45 cases were reported during the surveillance period, equating to 133.7 cases per 1000 person-years at risk. In residents the incidence rate was 0.62 cases per 1000 bed-days. We observed seven outbreaks in all care homes included in surveillance, a rate of 76.4 outbreaks per 100 care homes per year. 15 stool samples were tested; three were positive for norovirus, no other pathogens were detected.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that surveillance of infectious gastroenteritis disease in care homes based on outbreaks, the current general approach, detected a majority of cases of gastroenteritis. However, if policymakers are to estimate the burden of infectious gastroenteritis in this setting using only routine outbreak surveillance data and not accounting for non-outbreak cases, this study implies that the total burden will be underestimated.

A potential barrier to adherence? Memory for future intentions is impaired in hemodialysis patients

INTRODUCTION

End-stage renal disease (ESRD) has been associated with a range of cognitive deficits, including impaired retrospective memory and attention. Prospective memory (PM) is memory for future intentions, such as remembering to take medication on time. Prospective memory has not been examined in any ESRD patients; yet, the implications upon diet and medication management could potentially have detrimental effects on patient welfare. This is the first study to examine PM in ESRD patients being treated with hemodialysis (HD).

METHODS

Hemodialysis patients (n = 18) were compared with age-matched and education-matched controls (n = 18) on a boardgame task that emulates a typical week of activities (i.e., grocery shopping, meetings with friends), requiring the participant to remember a series of upcoming tasks. Other measures were also examined, including general cognitive decline, measures of independent living, IQ, and mood.

FINDINGS

Patients recalled significantly fewer upcoming events than the control group, suggesting an impairment of PM. No significant relationship was found between PM performance and any other measures, suggesting the difference between groups is likely due to the effects of ESRD, HD treatment, or some associated comorbidity.

DISCUSSION

This is the first study to demonstrate a PM deficit in patients undergoing HD treatment. This finding contributes to the current knowledge of the cognitive profile of patients undergoing HD while also highlighting the implications that a PM deficit may have on patient quality of life. The finding may go some way to explaining variances in patients' ability to monitor and adhere to medication and dietary regimes and, ultimately, to live independently. The study also highlights the necessity of viewing treatment for ESRD as a holistic process to maximize patient well-being.

Estimating Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) in Community Cases of Norovirus in England

Disability adjusted life years (DALYs) have been used since the 1990s. It is a composite measure of years of life lost with years lived with disability. Essentially, one DALY is the equivalent of a year of healthy life lost if a person had not experienced disease. Norovirus is the most common cause of gastrointestinal diseases worldwide. Norovirus activity varies from one season to the next for reasons not fully explained. Infection with norovirus is generally not severe, and is normally characterized as mild and self-limiting with no long-term sequelae. In this study, we model a range of estimates of DALYs for community cases of norovirus in England and Wales. We estimated a range of DALYs for norovirus to account for mixing of the severity of disease and the range of length of illness experienced by infected people. Our estimates were between 1159 and 4283 DALYs per year, or 0.3⁻1.2 years of healthy life lost per thousand cases of norovirus. These estimates provide evidence that norovirus leads to a considerable level of ill health in England and Wales. This information will be helpful should candidate norovirus vaccines become available in the future.

Norovirus strain types found within the second infectious intestinal diseases (IID2) study an analysis of norovirus circulating in the community

BACKGROUND

Norovirus is the commonest cause of infectious intestinal disease (IID) worldwide. In the UK community incidence of norovirus has been estimated at 59/1000 population, equating to four million cases a year. Whilst norovirus infects people of all ages, a substantial burden occurs in infants and young children. The population of viruses found in sporadic cases among infants has been observed to be more diverse than that associated with outbreaks. In this study, we analysed norovirus-positive specimens collected during the second study of infectious intestinal diseases (IID2 Study) a national community cohort study conducted between April 2008 and August 2009 We examined the data for differences in circulating norovirus strains between two arms of a community cohort, and differences between genotypes and disease outcomes such as illness duration and symptom profiles.

METHODS

Analysis was conducted to assess genetic diversity of noroviruses in the community. We also assessed differences in the cycle threshold (Ct) value, as a proxy for viral load, between norovirus genogroups and genotypes, and differences in reported symptoms or length of illness in relation to genogroup and genotype.

RESULTS

There were 477 samples where norovirus was detected. Whilst 85% of people recovered within two days for vomiting; diarrhoea symptoms were reported to day 4 for 83% of the cases, and 10% of people reported symptoms of diarrhoea lasting between five and six days. Both diarrhoea and vomiting symptoms lasted longer in children aged < 5 years compared to adults. There was a significantly higher proportion of GII.4 in samples obtained from the GP arm of the study (chi-square = 17.8, p < 0.001) compared to samples received via post in the self-reporting arm. In the latter group, the prevalence of GII.6 was significantly higher (chi-square = 7.5, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that there is a difference in disease severity by age group. Children aged < 5 years had longer duration of illness, with 10% still having diarrhoea at seven days, and vomiting of between four and five days. The duration of illness reported is higher overall than one might expect for cases in the community in otherwise healthy individuals which has implications for infection control. No differences were observed in relation to duration of vomiting and or diarrhoea by genotype.

Estimating the burden of care home gastroenteritis outbreaks in England, 2014-2016

BACKGROUND

Outbreaks of infectious gastroenteritis in care homes are common, with norovirus a frequent cause. In England there is no co-ordinated national surveillance system. We aimed to estimate the burden of these outbreaks.

METHODS

Using a generalised linear mixed effects regression model we described the relationship between the observed number of care home outbreaks and covariates. Estimated model parameters were used to infer uplift in the number of outbreaks expected if all areas were subjected to enhanced surveillance. From this we then estimated the total burden of care home gastroenteritis outbreaks in this period.

RESULTS

We estimated a total of 14,146 care home gastroenteritis outbreaks in England during 2014-2016; this is 47% higher than the reported total and a rate of 32.4 outbreaks per 100 care homes per year. The median number of outbreaks from the model estimates was 31 (IQR 20-46) compared to 19 (IQR 12-34) reported from routine surveillance.

CONCLUSIONS

This estimated care home gastroenteritis burden in England indicates that current surveillance substantially underestimates the number of outbreaks, by almost half. Improving this surveillance could provide better epidemiological knowledge of the burden of norovirus to inform public health policy, particularly with the advent of norovirus vaccines.

pouC Regulates Expression of bmp4 During Atrioventricular Canal Formation in Zebrafish

BACKGROUND

Many human gene mutations have been linked to congenital heart disease (CHD), yet CHD remains a major health issue worldwide due in part to an incomplete understanding of the molecular basis for cardiac malformation.

RESULTS

Here we identify the orthologous mouse Pou6f1 and zebrafish pouC as POU homeodomain transcription factors enriched in the developing heart. We find that pouC is a multi-functional transcriptional regulator containing separable activation, repression, protein-protein interaction, and DNA binding domains. Using zebrafish heart development as a model system, we demonstrate that pouC knockdown impairs cardiac morphogenesis and affects cardiovascular function. We also find that levels of pouC expression must be fine-tuned to enable proper heart formation. At the cellular level, we demonstrate that pouC knockdown disrupts atrioventricular canal (AVC) cardiomyocyte maintenance, although chamber myocyte specification remains intact. Mechanistically, we show that pouC binds a bmp4 intronic regulatory element to mediate transcriptional activation.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, our study establishes pouC as a novel transcriptional input into the regulatory hierarchy that drives AVC morphogenesis in zebrafish. We anticipate that these findings will inform future efforts to explore functional conservation in mammals and potential association with atrioventricular septal defects in humans. Developmental Dynamics 248:173-188, 2019. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Foodborne and Food-Handler Norovirus Outbreaks: A Systematic Review

Norovirus (NoV) is the commonest cause of gastrointestinal disease in the United Kingdom and in many developed countries, causing diarrhea and vomiting in millions of cases worldwide annually. Transmission is most often mediated from person to person. NoV infection has, however, additionally been associated with the consumption of food, either through the consumption of food contaminated at source such as seafood, berries, and salad, or as a consequence of the foodstuff being contaminated in some way by a food handler during processing or serving. A systematic review of outbreaks attributed to NoV between January 2003 and July 2017 was conducted to assess the contribution of food handlers to the burden of NoV, and to identify foods commonly associated with NoV outbreaks. A total of 3021 articles were screened, of which 27 met the definition of confirmed foodborne outbreaks and 47 met the criteria for definite food-handler NoV outbreaks. Of all food types, shellfish were implicated in the greatest number of definite foodborne outbreaks. Food handlers contributed to definite food-handler outbreaks involving a diverse range of foodstuffs and in a wide variety of settings, including weddings and military establishments. More genotypes of NoV were found in people who were ill than in samples from food and food handlers. The potential for both food products and food handlers to contribute to the burden of NoV infection is demonstrated conclusively.

Methods for ascertaining norovirus disease burdens

Norovirus is the commonest cause of gastrointestinal disease worldwide in. Infections with norovirus occur in all age groups, however, the highest incidence is in children aged less than five years. Surveillance of norovirus is complicated because most people do not contact medical services when they are ill. Nevertheless, Public health laboratory surveillance worldwide has demonstrated the dominance of GII.4 viruses in the population. Better epidemiological surveillance and outbreak investigations, coupled with wider implementation of molecular-based laboratory diagnostics are leading to better estimates of the burden of norovirus infections as well as improved outbreak control. Recent advances in cell culture systems for norovirus and current research investigating the distribution of norovirus-associated disease in the population, for whom the disease burden is greatest, understanding host susceptibility factors, and methodologies for ascertaining cases, are important in increasing our understanding of norovirus. The key to surveillance of norovirus is allying the epidemiology with surveillance of virology. With recent advances in laboratory culture systems for norovirus, next generation sequencing technologies, improved diagnostics and measuring phenotypic characteristics of noroviruses, there are new opportunities to advance understanding of this common and important human pathogen that will help design strategies for vaccine and antiviral development, and how these might be best deployed to control norovirus infection.

Prospective cohort study to investigate the burden and transmission of acute gastroenteritis in care homes: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Noroviruses are the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in all age groups, but illness is more severe and causes excess mortality in the elderly, particularly those in long-term care. The total burden of norovirus disease in the elderly in the UK is poorly defined; no current surveillance programmes systematically or accurately quantify norovirus infection in those living in care homes. The aim of this study is to evaluate an enhanced surveillance system for acute gastroenteritis among the elderly in care homes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will conduct this prospective cohort study in care homes in North West England; residents and staff at study care homes will be asked to participate. We will prospectively enrol a cohort of participants in an enhanced surveillance system to capture the incidence of acute gastroenteritis and use multiplex PCR to detect pathogens. We will sample symptomatic and non-symptomatic participants to understand characteristics of norovirus disease and susceptibility to infection. We will generate novel data on transmission dynamics by collecting data on the pattern of interactions within care homes using electronic proximity sensors. Comparisons of outbreak and non-outbreak periods will be used to quantify the impact of norovirus outbreaks on care homes.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has been approved by the North West-Greater Manchester South NHS Research Ethics Committee (REC Reference: 16/NW/0541). Study outputs will be disseminated through scientific conferences and peer-reviewed publications. This study will provide detailed insight on the burden and aetiology of acute gastroenteritis in care homes, in addition to generating novel data on transmission dynamics and risks. The study will identify areas for improving infection control practice and allow more accurate modelling of the introduction of interventions such as vaccination.

Understanding the impact of haemodialysis on UK National Health Service patients' well-being: A qualitative investigation

Aims and objectives

While haemodialysis is an effective treatment for end‐stage renal disease, the requirements and restrictions it imposes on patients can be onerous. The aim of this study was to obtain UK National Health Service patients’ perspectives on the challenges arising from haemodialysis with the intention of identifying potential improvements.

Background

Depression rates are particularly high in those with end‐stage renal disease; however, there is limited insight into the range of stressors associated with haemodialysis treatment within the National Health Service contributing to such high rates, particularly those of a cognitive or psychological nature.

Design

A qualitative approach was used to obtain rich, patient‐focused data; one‐to‐one semi‐structured interviews were conducted with twenty end‐stage renal disease at a UK National Health Service centre.

Methods

Patients were interviewed during a typical haemodialysis session. Thematic analysis was used to systematically interpret the data. Codes were created in an inductive and cyclical process using a constant comparative approach.

Results

Three themes emerged from the data: (i) fluctuations in cognitive/physical well‐being across the haemodialysis cycle, (ii) restrictions arising from the haemodialysis treatment schedule, (iii) emotional impact of haemodialysis on the self and others. The findings are limited to predominantly white, older patients (median = 74 years) within a National Health Service setting.

Conclusions

Several of the experiences reported by patients as challenging and distressing have so far been overlooked in the literature. A holistic‐based approach to treatment, acknowledging all aspects of a patient's well‐being, is essential if optimal quality of life is to be achieved by healthcare providers.

Relevance to clinical practice

The findings can be used to inform future interventions and guidelines aimed at improving patients’ treatment adherence and outcomes, for example, improved reliable access to mental health specialists.

Critical Review on the Public Health Impact of Norovirus Contamination in Shellfish and the Environment: A UK Perspective

We review the risk of norovirus (NoV) infection to the human population from consumption of contaminated shellfish. From a UK perspective, risk is apportioned for different vectors of NoV infection within the population. NoV spreads mainly by person-to-person contact or via unsanitary food handling. NoV also enters the coastal zone via wastewater discharges resulting in contamination of shellfish waters. Typically, NoV persists in the marine environment for several days, with its presence strongly linked to human population density, wastewater discharge rate, and efficacy of wastewater treatment. Shellfish bioaccumulate NoV and current post-harvest depuration is inefficient in its removal. While NoV can be inactivated by cooking (e.g. mussels), consumption of contaminated raw shellfish (e.g. oysters) represents a risk to human health. Consumption of contaminated food accounts for 3-11% of NoV cases in the UK (~74,000 cases/year), of which 16% are attributable to oyster consumption (11,800 cases/year). However, environmental and human factors influencing NoV infectivity remain poorly understood. Lack of standard methods for accurate quantification of infective and non-infective (damaged) NoV particles represent a major barrier, hampering identification of an appropriate lower NoV contamination limit for shellfish. Future management strategies may include shellfish quality assessment (at point of harvest or at point of supply) or harvesting controls. However, poor understanding of NoV inactivation in shellfish and the environment currently limits accurate apportionment and risk assessment for NoV and hence the identification of appropriate shellfish or environmental quality standards.

Stereopsis in end-stage renal disease (ESRD)

We investigated an effect of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) on the visual system by measuring the ability of 21 patients to perceive depth in the random dot stereograms and circles of the Randot Test. To control for other factors which might influence performance on the tests of stereopsis, patients were compared with healthy controls matched for age, years of education, IQ, and general cognitive ability. Vernier acuity (thought to reflect mainly central processing) and Landolt acuity (more sensitive to retinal and optical abnormalities) were also measured, but the study did not include a formal ophthalmological examination. All controls could perceive depth in random dot stereograms, whereas 9/21 patients could not. Patients who could perceive depth had worse stereoacuity than did their matched controls. The patient group as a whole had worse Vernier and Landolt acuities than the controls. The stereoblind patient subgroup had similar Vernier acuity to the stereoscopic subgroup, but worse Landolt acuity, and was more likely to have peripheral vascular disease. We conclude that ESRD had affected structures both within the eye, and within the visual brain. However, the similarity of Vernier acuity and difference of Landolt acuity in the stereoblind and stereoscopic patient subgroups suggest that the differences in stereoscopic ability arise from abnormalities in the eyes rather than in the brain.