Tracing Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission by whole genome sequencing in a high incidence setting: a retrospective population-based study in East Greenland

Unraveling tuberculosis patient cluster transmission chains: integrating WGS-based network with clinical and epidemiological insights

Background

Tuberculosis remains a global health threat, and the World Health Organization reports a limited reduction in disease incidence rates, including both new and relapse cases. Therefore, studies targeting tuberculosis transmission chains and recurrent episodes are crucial for developing the most effective control measures. Herein, multiple tuberculosis clusters were retrospectively investigated by integrating patients' epidemiological and clinical information with median-joining networks recreated based on whole genome sequencing (WGS) data of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates.

Methods

Epidemiologically linked tuberculosis patient clusters were identified during the source case investigation for pediatric tuberculosis patients. Only M. tuberculosis isolate DNA samples with previously determined spoligotypes identical within clusters were subjected to WGS and further median-joining network recreation. Relevant clinical and epidemiological data were obtained from patient medical records.

Results

We investigated 18 clusters comprising 100 active tuberculosis patients 29 of whom were children at the time of diagnosis; nine patients experienced recurrent episodes. M. tuberculosis isolates of studied clusters belonged to Lineages 2 (sub-lineage 2.2.1) and 4 (sub-lineages 4.3.3, 4.1.2.1, 4.8, and 4.2.1), while sub-lineage 4.3.3 (LAM) was the most abundant. Isolates of six clusters were drug-resistant. Within clusters, the maximum genetic distance between closely related isolates was only 5-11 single nucleotide variants (SNVs). Recreated median-joining networks, integrated with patients' diagnoses, specimen collection dates, sputum smear microscopy, and epidemiological investigation results indicated transmission directions within clusters and long periods of latent infection. It also facilitated the identification of potential infection sources for pediatric patients and recurrent active tuberculosis episodes refuting the reactivation possibility despite the small genetic distance of ≤5 SNVs between isolates. However, unidentified active tuberculosis cases within the cluster, the variable mycobacterial mutation rate in dormant and active states, and low M. tuberculosis genetic variability inferred precise transmission chain delineation. In some cases, heterozygous SNVs with an allelic frequency of 10-73% proved valuable in identifying direct transmission events.

Conclusion

The complex approach of integrating tuberculosis cluster WGS-data-based median-joining networks with relevant epidemiological and clinical data proved valuable in delineating epidemiologically linked patient transmission chains and deciphering causes of recurrent tuberculosis episodes within clusters.

An overview of tuberculosis outbreaks reported in the years 2011-2020

BACKGROUND

In many countries tuberculosis (TB) remains a highly prevalent disease and a major contributor to infectious disease mortality. The fight against TB requires surveillance of the population of strains circulating worldwide and the analysis of the prevalence of certain strains in populations. Nowadays, whole genome sequencing (WGS) allows for accurate tracking of TB transmission. Currently, there is a lack of a comprehensive summary of the characteristics of TB outbreaks.

METHODS

We systematically analyzed studies reporting TB outbreaks worldwide, monitored through WGS of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We 1) mapped the reported outbreaks from 2011- 2020, 2) estimated the average size of the outbreaks, 3) indicated genetic lineages causing the outbreaks, and 4) determined drug-resistance patterns of M. tuberculosis strains involved in the outbreaks.

RESULTS

Most data originated from Europe, Asia, and North America. We found that TB outbreaks were reported throughout the globe, on all continents, and in countries with both high and low incidences. The detected outbreaks contained a median of five M. tuberculosis isolates. Most strains causing the outbreaks belonged to lineage four, more rarely to lineage two. Reported outbreak isolates were often drug resistant.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that more WGS surveillance of M. tuberculosis outbreaks is needed. Globally standardized procedures might improve the control of M. tuberculosis infections.

TransFlow: a Snakemake workflow for transmission analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis whole-genome sequencing data

MOTIVATION

Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) is increasingly used to aid the understanding of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) transmission. The epidemiological analysis of tuberculosis based on the WGS technique requires a diverse collection of bioinformatics tools. Effectively using these analysis tools in a scalable and reproducible way can be challenging, especially for non-experts.

RESULTS

Here, we present TransFlow (Transmission Workflow), a user-friendly, fast, efficient and comprehensive WGS-based transmission analysis pipeline. TransFlow combines some state-of-the-art tools to take transmission analysis from raw sequencing data, through quality control, sequence alignment and variant calling, into downstream transmission clustering, transmission network reconstruction and transmission risk factor inference, together with summary statistics and data visualization in a summary report. TransFlow relies on Snakemake and Conda to resolve dependencies among consecutive processing steps and can be easily adapted to any computation environment.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

TransFlow is free available at https://github.com/cvn001/transflow.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Metagenomic analysis reveals mixed Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in a 18th century Hungarian midwife

The Vác Mummy Collection comprises 265 well documented mummified individuals from the late 16th to the early 18th century that were discovered in 1994 inside a crypt in Vác, Hungary. This collection offers a unique opportunity to study the relationship between humans and pathogens in the pre-antibiotic era, as previous studies have shown a high proportion of tuberculosis (TB) infections among the individuals. In this study, we recovered ancient DNA with shotgun sequencing from a rib bone sample of a 18th century midwife. This individual is part of the collection and shows clear skeletal changes that are associated with tuberculosis and syphilis. To provide molecular proof, we applied a metagenomic approach to screen for ancient pathogen DNA. While we were unsuccessful to recover any ancient Treponema pallidum DNA, we retrieved high coverage ancient TB DNA and identified a mixed infection with two distinct TB strains by detailed single-nucleotide polymorphism and phylogenetic analysis. Thereby, we have obtained comprehensive results demonstrating the long-time prevalence of mixed infections with the sublineages L4.1.2.1/Haarlem and L4.10/PGG3 within the local community in preindustrial Hungary and put them in context of sociohistorical factors.

Population-based sequencing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis reveals how current population dynamics are shaped by past epidemics

Transmission is a driver of tuberculosis (TB) epidemics in high-burden regions, with assumed negligible impact in low-burden areas. However, we still lack a full characterization of transmission dynamics in settings with similar and different burdens. Genomic epidemiology can greatly help to quantify transmission, but the lack of whole genome sequencing population-based studies has hampered its application. Here, we generate a population-based dataset from Valencia region and compare it with available datasets from different TB-burden settings to reveal transmission dynamics heterogeneity and its public health implications. We sequenced the whole genome of 785 Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains and linked genomes to patient epidemiological data. We use a pairwise distance clustering approach and phylodynamic methods to characterize transmission events over the last 150 years, in different TB-burden regions. Our results underscore significant differences in transmission between low-burden TB settings, i.e., clustering in Valencia region is higher (47.4%) than in Oxfordshire (27%), and similar to a high-burden area as Malawi (49.8%). By modeling times of the transmission links, we observed that settings with high transmission rate are associated with decades of uninterrupted transmission, irrespective of burden. Together, our results reveal that burden and transmission are not necessarily linked due to the role of past epidemics in the ongoing TB incidence, and highlight the need for in-depth characterization of transmission dynamics and specifically tailored TB control strategies.

Genetic diversity and primary drug resistance transmission in Mycobacterium tuberculosis in southern Mexico

Tuberculosis is a global human health threat, especially in developing countries. The present study aimed to describe the genetic diversity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and to measure the transmission rates of primary and acquired resistance. A total of 755 M. tuberculosis isolates from a cohort study of patients with culture-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in Orizaba, Veracruz, performed between 1995 and 2010 were genotyped by the 24-locus mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable number of tandem repeats (MIRU-VNTR) method. Drug susceptibility was determined. Logistic regression models were constructed to identify the variables associated with resistance and clusters. The recent transmission index (RTI), the Hunter-Gaston discrimination index (HGDI) for the MIRU-VNTR test and allelic diversity (h) were calculated. The Haarlem and LAM lineages were the most common in the population. A total of 519 isolates were grouped into 128 clusters. The overall drug resistance rate was 19%, isoniazid monoresistance (10%) was the most common, and 3.4% of the isolates were multidrug resistant. Among the 116 isolates resistant to at least one drug, the primary and acquired resistance rates were 81.9% and 18.1%, respectively. Primary resistance was associated with belonging to a cluster (aOR 4.05, 95% CI 1.5-11.2, p = 0.007). Previous treatment history (aOR 9.05, 95% CI 3.6-22.5, p < 0.001) and LAM lineage (aOR 4.25, 95% CI 1.4-12.7, p = 0.010) were associated with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). The RTI was 51.7%, and the 24-locus MIRU-VNTR HGDI was 0.98. The alleles with the greatest diversity were 4056-QUB26 (h = 0.84), 2163b-QUB11b (h = 0.79), and 424-Mtub04 (h = 0.72). Primary resistance transmission, high LAM lineage prevalence and its association with MDR-TB represent public health problems. The implementation of molecular tools is needed to improve the existing control surveillance tuberculosis program.

Molecular Epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis To Describe the Transmission Dynamics Among Inuit Residing in Iqaluit Nunavut Using Whole-Genome Sequencing

BACKGROUND

In the last decade, tuberculosis (TB) incidence among Inuit in the Canadian Arctic has been rising. Our aim was to better understand the transmission dynamics of TB in this remote region of Canada using whole-genome sequencing.

METHODS

Isolates from patients who had culture-positive pulmonary TB in Iqaluit, Nunavut, between 2009 and 2015 underwent whole-genome sequencing (WGS). The number of transmission events between cases within clusters was calculated using a threshold of a ≤3 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) difference between isolates and then combined with detailed epidemiological data using a reproducible novel algorithm. Social network analysis of epidemiological data was used to support the WGS data analysis.

RESULTS

During the study period, 140 Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from 135 cases were sequenced. Four clusters were identified, all from Euro-American lineage. One cluster represented 62% of all cases that were sequenced over the entire study period. In this cluster, 2 large chains of transmission were associated with 3 superspreading events in a homeless shelter. One of the superspreading events was linked to a nonsanctioned gambling house that resulted in further transmission. Shelter to nonshelter transmission was also confirmed. An algorithm developed for the determination of transmission events demonstrated very good reproducibility (κ score .98, 95% confidence interval, .97-1.0).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that socioeconomic factors, namely residing in a homeless shelter and spending time in a gambling house, combined with the superspreading event effect may have been significant factors explaining the rise in cases in this predominantly Inuit Arctic community.

Multiple Merger Genealogies in Outbreaks of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

The Kingman coalescent and its developments are often considered among the most important advances in population genetics of the last decades. Demographic inference based on coalescent theory has been used to reconstruct the population dynamics and evolutionary history of several species, including Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB), an important human pathogen causing tuberculosis. One key assumption of the Kingman coalescent is that the number of descendants of different individuals does not vary strongly, and violating this assumption could lead to severe biases caused by model misspecification. Individual lineages of MTB are expected to vary strongly in reproductive success because 1) MTB is potentially under constant selection due to the pressure of the host immune system and of antibiotic treatment, 2) MTB undergoes repeated population bottlenecks when it transmits from one host to the next, and 3) some hosts show much higher transmission rates compared with the average (superspreaders).

Here, we used an approximate Bayesian computation approach to test whether multiple-merger coalescents (MMC), a class of models that allow for large variation in reproductive success among lineages, are more appropriate models to study MTB populations. We considered 11 publicly available whole-genome sequence data sets sampled from local MTB populations and outbreaks and found that MMC had a better fit compared with the Kingman coalescent for 10 of the 11 data sets. These results indicate that the null model for analyzing MTB outbreaks should be reassessed and that past findings based on the Kingman coalescent need to be revisited.

Reporting practices for genomic epidemiology of tuberculosis: a systematic review of the literature using STROME-ID guidelines as a benchmark

BACKGROUND

Pathogen genomics have become increasingly important in infectious disease epidemiology and public health. The Strengthening the Reporting of Molecular Epidemiology for Infectious Diseases (STROME-ID) guidelines were developed to outline a minimum set of criteria that should be reported in genomic epidemiology studies to facilitate assessment of study quality. We evaluate such reporting practices, using tuberculosis as an example.

METHODS

For this systematic review, we initially searched MEDLINE, Embase Classic, and Embase on May 3, 2017, using the search terms "tuberculosis" and "genom* sequencing". We updated this initial search on April 23, 2019, and also included a search of bioRxiv at this time. We included studies in English, French, or Spanish that recruited patients with microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis and used whole genome sequencing for typing of strains. Non-human studies, conference abstracts, and literature reviews were excluded. For each included study, the number and proportion of fulfilled STROME-ID criteria were recorded by two reviewers. A comparison of the mean proportion of fulfilled STROME-ID criteria before and after publication of the STROME-ID guidelines (in 2014) was done using a two-tailed t test. Quasi-Poisson regression and tobit regression were used to examine associations between study characteristics and the number and proportion of fulfilled STROME-ID criteria. This study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42017064395.

FINDINGS

976 titles and abstracts were identified by our primary search, with an additional 16 studies identified in bioRxiv. 114 full texts (published between 2009 and 2019) were eligible for inclusion. The mean proportion of STROME-ID criteria fulfilled was 50% (SD 12; range 16-75). The proportion of criteria fulfilled was similar before and after STROME-ID publication (51% [SD 11] vs 46% [14], p=0·26). The number of criteria reported (among those applicable to all studies) was not associated with impact factor, h-index, country of affiliation of senior author, or sample size of isolates. Similarly, the proportion of criteria fulfilled was not associated with these characteristics, with the exception of a sample size of isolates of 277 or more (the highest quartile). In terms of reproducibility, 100 (88%) studies reported which bioinformatic tools were used, but only 33 (33%) reported corresponding version numbers. Sequencing data were available for 86 (75%) studies.

INTERPRETATION

The reporting of STROME-ID criteria in genomic epidemiology studies of tuberculosis between 2009 and 2019 was low, with implications for assessment of study quality. The considerable proportion of studies without bioinformatics version numbers or sequencing data available highlights a key concern for reproducibility.

Whole genomic sequencing based genotyping reveals a specific X3 sublineage restricted to Mexico and related with multidrug resistance

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) has been shown to be superior to traditional procedures of genotyping in tuberculosis (TB), nevertheless, reports of its use in drug resistant TB (DR-TB) isolates circulating in Mexico, are practically unknown. Considering the above the main of this work was to identify and characterize the lineages and genomic transmission clusters present in 67 DR-TB isolates circulating in southeastern Mexico. The results show the presence of three major lineages: L1 (3%), L2 (3%) and L4 (94%), the last one included 16 sublineages. Sublineage 4.1.1.3 (X3) was predominant in 18 (27%) of the isolates, including one genomic cluster, formed by eleven multidrug resistant isolates and sharing the SIT 3278, which seems to be restricted to Mexico. By the use of WGS, it was possible to identify the high prevalence of L4 and a high number of sublineages circulating in the region, also was recognized the presence of a novel X3 sublineage, formed exclusively by multidrug resistant isolates and with restrictive circulation in Mexico for at least the past 17 years.

Identification of a predominant genotype of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Brazilian indigenous population

After nearly a century of vaccination and six decades of drug therapy, tuberculosis (TB) kills more people annually than any other infectious disease. Substantial challenges to disease eradication remain among vulnerable and underserved populations. The Guarani-Kaiowá people are an indigenous population in Paraguay and the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul. This community, marginalized in Brazilian society, experiences severe poverty. Like other South American indigenous populations, their TB prevalence is high, but the disease has remained largely unstudied in their communities. Herein, Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from local clinics were whole genome sequenced, and a population genetic framework was generated. Phylogenetics show M. tuberculosis isolates in the Guarani-Kaiowá people cluster away from selected reference strains, suggesting divergence. Most cluster in a single group, further characterized as M. tuberculosis sublineage 4.3.3. Closer analysis of SNPs showed numerous variants across the genome, including in drug resistance-associated genes, and with many unique changes fixed in each group. We report that local M. tuberculosis strains have acquired unique polymorphisms in the Guarani-Kaiowá people, and drug resistance characterization is urgently needed to inform public health to ensure proper care and avoid further evolution and spread of drug-resistant TB.

Population Structure of Mycobacterium bovis in Germany: a Long-Term Study Using Whole-Genome Sequencing Combined with Conventional Molecular Typing Methods

Mycobacterium bovis is the primary cause of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and infects a wide range of domestic animal and wildlife species and humans. In Germany, bTB still emerges sporadically in cattle herds, free-ranging wildlife, diverse captive animal species, and humans. In order to understand the underlying population structure and estimate the population size fluctuation through time, we analyzed 131 M. bovis strains from animals (n = 38) and humans (n = 93) in Germany from 1999 to 2017 by whole-genome sequencing (WGS), mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) typing, and spoligotyping. Based on WGS data analysis, 122 out of the 131 M. bovis strains were classified into 13 major clades, of which 6 contained strains from both human and animal cases and 7 only strains from human cases. Bayesian analyses suggest that the M. bovis population went through two sharp anticlimaxes, one in the middle of the 18th century and another one in the 1950s. WGS-based cluster analysis grouped 46 strains into 13 clusters ranging in size from 2 to 11 members and involving strains from distinct host types, e.g., only cattle and also mixed hosts. Animal strains of four clusters were obtained over a 9-year span, pointing toward autochthonous persistent bTB infection cycles. As expected, WGS had a higher discriminatory power than spoligotyping and MIRU-VNTR typing. In conclusion, our data confirm that WGS and suitable bioinformatics constitute the method of choice to implement prospective molecular epidemiological surveillance of M. bovis The population of M. bovis in Germany is diverse, with subtle, but existing, interactions between different host groups.

Towards standardisation: comparison of five whole genome sequencing (WGS) analysis pipelines for detection of epidemiologically linked tuberculosis cases

Background

Whole genome sequencing (WGS) is a reliable tool for studying tuberculosis (TB) transmission. WGS data are usually processed by custom-built analysis pipelines with little standardisation between them.

Aim

To compare the impact of variability of several WGS analysis pipelines used internationally to detect epidemiologically linked TB cases.

Methods

From the Netherlands, 535 Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) strains from 2016 were included. Epidemiological information obtained from municipal health services was available for all mycobacterial interspersed repeat unit-variable number of tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) clustered cases. WGS data was analysed using five different pipelines: one core genome multilocus sequence typing (cgMLST) approach and four single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based pipelines developed in Oxford, United Kingdom; Borstel, Germany; Bilthoven, the Netherlands and Copenhagen, Denmark. WGS clusters were defined using a maximum pairwise distance of 12 SNPs/alleles.

Results

The cgMLST approach and Oxford pipeline clustered all epidemiologically linked cases, however, in the other three SNP-based pipelines one epidemiological link was missed due to insufficient coverage. In general, the genetic distances varied between pipelines, reflecting different clustering rates: the cgMLST approach clustered 92 cases, followed by 84, 83, 83 and 82 cases in the SNP-based pipelines from Copenhagen, Oxford, Borstel and Bilthoven respectively.

Conclusion

Concordance in ruling out epidemiological links was high between pipelines, which is an important step in the international validation of WGS data analysis. To increase accuracy in identifying TB transmission clusters, standardisation of crucial WGS criteria and creation of a reference database of representative MTBC sequences would be advisable.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis polyclonal infections through treatment and recurrence

Background

Mixed/polyclonal infections due to different genotypes are reported in Tuberculosis. The current study was designed to understand the fate of mixed infections during the course of treatment and follow-up and its role in disease pathogenesis.

Methods

Sputum samples were collected on 0,1,2,3,6,12 and 24 months from 157 treatment-naïve patients, cultures subjected to Drug-Susceptibility-testing (MGIT 960), spoligotyping, MIRU-VNTR and SNP genotyping. All isolated colonies on thin layer agar (7H11) were subjected to spoligotyping.

Findings

One thirty three baseline cultures were positive (133/157, 84.7%), 43(32.3%) had mixture of genotypes. Twenty-four of these patients (55.8%) showed change in genotype while six showed different drug-susceptibility patterns while on treatment. Twenty-three (53.5%) patients with polyclonal infections showed resistance to at least one drug compared to 10/90 (11.1%) monoclonal infections (P<0.0001). Eight patients had recurrent TB, two with a new genotype and two with altered phenotypic DST.

Conclusions

The coexistence of different genotypes and change of genotypes during the same disease episode, while on treatment, confirms constancy of polyclonal infections. The composition of the mixture of genotypes and the relative predominance may be missed by culture due to its limit of detection. Polyclonal infections in TB could be a rule rather than exception and challenges the age-old dogma of reactivation/reinfection.

Genomic epidemiology of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb), the pathogen responsible for tuberculosis (TB) poses as the major cause of death among infectious diseases. The knowledge about the molecular diversity of M.tb enables the implementation of more effective surveillance and control measures and, nowadays, Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) holds the potential to produce high-resolution epidemiological data in a high-throughput manner. Florianópolis, the state capital of Santa Catarina (SC) in south Brazil, shows a high TB incidence (46.0/100,000). Here we carried out a WGS-based evaluation of the M.tb strain diversity, drug-resistance and ongoing transmission in the capital metropolitan region. Resistance to isoniazid, rifampicin, streptomycin was identified respectively in 4.0% (n = 6), 2.0% (n = 3) and 1.3% (n = 2) of the 151 studied strains by WGS. Besides, resistance to pyrazinamide and ethambutol was detected in 0.7% (n = 1) and reistance to ethionamide and fluoroquinolone (FQ) in 1.3% (n = 2), while a single (0.7%) multidrug-resistant (MDR) strain was identified. SNP-based typing classified all isolates into M.tb Lineage 4, with high proportion of sublineages LAM (60.3%), T (16.4%) and Haarlem (7.9%). The average core-genome distance between isolates was 420.3 SNPs, with 43.7% of all isolates grouped across 22 genomic clusters thereby showing the presence of important ongoing TB transmission events. Most clusters were geographically distributed across the study setting which highlights the need for an urgent interruption of these large transmission chains. The data conveyed by this study shows the presence of important and uncontrolled TB transmission in the metropolitan area and provides precise data to support TB control measures in this region.

Comparison of routine field epidemiology and whole genome sequencing to identify tuberculosis transmission in a remote setting

Yukon Territory (YT) is a remote region in northern Canada with ongoing spread of tuberculosis (TB). To explore the utility of whole genome sequencing (WGS) for TB surveillance and monitoring in a setting with detailed contact tracing and interview data, we used a mixed-methods approach. Our analysis included all culture-confirmed cases in YT (2005-2014) and incorporated data from 24-locus Mycobacterial Interspersed Repetitive Units-Variable Number of Tandem Repeats (MIRU-VNTR) genotyping, WGS and contact tracing. We compared field-based (contact investigation (CI) data + MIRU-VNTR) and genomic-based (WGS + MIRU-VNTR + basic case data) investigations to identify the most likely source of each person's TB and assessed the knowledge, attitudes and practices of programme personnel around genotyping and genomics using online, multiple-choice surveys (n = 4) and an in-person group interview (n = 5). Field- and genomics-based approaches agreed for 26 of 32 (81%) cases on likely location of TB acquisition. There was less agreement in the identification of specific source cases (13/22 or 59% of cases). Single-locus MIRU-VNTR variants and limited genetic diversity complicated the analysis. Qualitative data indicated that participants viewed genomic epidemiology as a useful tool to streamline investigations, particularly in differentiating latent TB reactivation from the recent transmission. Based on this, genomic data could be used to enhance CIs, focus resources, target interventions and aid in TB programme evaluation.

Recurrent tuberculosis in patients infected with the predominant Mycobacterium tuberculosis outbreak strain in Denmark. New insights gained through whole genome sequencing

OBJECTIVES

Recurrent tuberculosis (TB) is defined by more than one TB episode per patient and is caused by reinfection with a new M. tuberculosis (Mtb) strain or relapse with the previous strain. In Denmark, a major TB outbreak caused by one specific Mtb genotype "DKC2" is ongoing. Of the 892 patients infected with DKC2 between 1992 and 2014, 32 had recurrent TB with 67 TB episodes in total.

METHODS

The 32 cases were evaluated in terms of number of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) differences and time between episodes derived from whole-genome sequencing data.

RESULTS

For four TB cases, the subsequent episodes could be confirmed as relapse and for one case as reinfection. Eight cases with SNP differences <6, theoretically indicating relapse, could be classified as likely reinfections based on phylogenetic analysis in combination with geographical data. Subsequent TB episodes for the remaining 19 cases could not be classified as relapse or reinfection even though they all had a SNP difference of <6 SNPs.

CONCLUSIONS

In newer studies, investigating recurrent TB with the use of WGS, the number of SNPs has been used to distinguish between relapse and reinfection. The algorithm proposed for this is not valid in the Danish TB outbreak setting as our findings challenge the interpretation of few SNP differences as representing relapse. However, when including phylogenetic analysis and geographical data in the analysis, classification of 13 of the 32 cases were possible.

Dispersal of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Driven by Historical European Trade in the South Pacific

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is a globally distributed bacterial pathogen whose population structure has largely been shaped by the activities of its obligate human host. Oceania was the last major global region to be reached by Europeans and is the last region for which the dispersal and evolution of Mtb remains largely unexplored. Here, we investigated the evolutionary history of the Euro-American L4.4 sublineage and its dispersal to the South Pacific. Using a phylodynamics approach and a dataset of 236 global Mtb L4.4 genomes we have traced the origins and dispersal of L4.4 strains to New Zealand. These strains are predominantly found in indigenous Māori and Pacific people and we identify a clade of European, likely French, origin that is prevalent in indigenous populations in both New Zealand and Canada. Molecular dating suggests the expansion of European trade networks in the early 19th century drove the dispersal of this clade to the South Pacific. We also identify historical and social factors within the region that have contributed to the local spread and expansion of these strains, including recent Pacific migrations to New Zealand and the rapid urbanization of Māori in the 20th century. Our results offer new insight into the expansion and dispersal of Mtb in the South Pacific and provide a striking example of the role of historical European migrations in the global dispersal of Mtb.

Accuracy of whole-genome sequencing to determine recent tuberculosis transmission: an 11-year population-based study in Hamburg, Germany

Controlling human-to-human tuberculosis (TB) transmission is key for achieving the targets of the End TB Strategy set by the World Health Organization (WHO) [1, 2]. Stopping TB transmission, in large cities especially, is a challenging top priority worldwide [3]. Metropolitan areas have higher TB case notification rates than the rest of a country, as they concentrate high-risk groups, such as homeless people, drug users and migrants often from (other) high TB incidence settings. Opportunities for transmission are amplified by population density and complex social interactions, regularly leading to large, temporally extended transmission networks [3]. Targeted interventions to interrupt transmission require the combination of effective genotyping of TB strains with enhanced epidemiological investigation. While classic IS6110 DNA fingerprinting and 24-locus MIRU–VNTR (mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units–variable number of tandem repeats) typing provide standardised and easily computable typing results with an online nomenclature system, several studies have now demonstrated that whole-genome sequencing (WGS) has a superior discriminatory power, allowing for an unparalleled resolution of outbreak strains [4–10]. However, predictivity of WGS for detecting transmission in metropolitan areas has not yet been quantified versus most deterministic references, i.e. tangible epidemiological links identified by ad hoc investigation, at extended time and population scales.

WGS typing with a five-SNP c:d:ut-off delineates recent transmission chains with highest accuracy and also provides high-resolution resistance patterns, thus enabling direct clinical benefitshttp://bit.ly/2Pk37Wo

Resolving a clinical tuberculosis outbreak using palaeogenomic genome reconstruction methodologies

This study describes the analysis of DNA from heat-killed (boilate) isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis from two UK outbreaks where DNA was of sub-optimal quality for the standard methodologies routinely used in microbial genomics. An Illumina library construction method developed for sequencing ancient DNA was successfully used to obtain whole genome sequences, allowing analysis of the outbreak by gene-by-gene MLST, SNP mapping and phylogenetic analysis. All cases were spoligotyped to the same Haarlem H1 sub-lineage. This is the first described application of ancient DNA library construction protocols to allow whole genome sequencing of a clinical tuberculosis outbreak. Using this method it is possible to obtain epidemiologically meaningful data even when DNA is of insufficient quality for standard methods.

Epidemiology of tuberculous lymphadenitis in Denmark: A nationwide register-based study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculous lymphadenitis (TBLA) is the most common extrapulmonary manifestation of tuberculosis (TB), often claimed to be reactivation. We aimed to describe the epidemiology of TBLA in Denmark, as it has not previously been investigated specifically although extrapulmonary TB has been associated with an increased long-term mortality and delays in the diagnosis.

METHODS

Register-based study of all patients notified with TBLA in Denmark from 2007 through 2016 utilizing six different nationwide registers. Patients were identified through the national TB surveillance register, and the diagnosis evaluated based on microbiology, pathology and/or clinical assessment.

RESULTS

In total, 13.5% (n = 489) of all TB patients in Denmark had TBLA with annual proportions from 9.4 to 15.7%. Most patients were immigrants between 25-44 years. Incidence rates ranged from as high as 1,014/100,000 for Nepalese citizens to as a low as 0.06/100,000 for Danes. Danes had a significant higher median age and significant more risk factors and comorbidities, as well as an increased overall mortality, compared with immigrants (p<0.05). A significant and much higher proportion of unique MIRU-VNTR genotypes were seen among TBLA patients compared to other TB manifestations.

CONCLUSION

In Denmark, TBLA is a common manifestation of TB, especially in young immigrants from high-incidence countries. In Danes, it is a rare disease manifestation and associated with higher morbidity and mortality. To our knowledge, this is the first study suggesting that TBLA is predominantly associated with reactivation of latent TB infection based on genotyping although this remains to be clarified.

Deciphering drug resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis using whole-genome sequencing: progress, promise, and challenges

Tuberculosis (TB) is a global infectious threat that is intensified by an increasing incidence of highly drug-resistant disease. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) studies of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the causative agent of TB, have greatly increased our understanding of this pathogen. Since the first M. tuberculosis genome was published in 1998, WGS has provided a more complete account of the genomic features that cause resistance in populations of M. tuberculosis, has helped to fill gaps in our knowledge of how both classical and new antitubercular drugs work, and has identified specific mutations that allow M. tuberculosis to escape the effects of these drugs. WGS studies have also revealed how resistance evolves both within an individual patient and within patient populations, including the important roles of de novo acquisition of resistance and clonal spread. These findings have informed decisions about which drug-resistance mutations should be included on extended diagnostic panels. From its origins as a basic science technique, WGS of M. tuberculosis is becoming part of the modern clinical microbiology laboratory, promising rapid and improved detection of drug resistance, and detailed and real-time epidemiology of TB outbreaks. We review the successes and highlight the challenges that remain in applying WGS to improve the control of drug-resistant TB through monitoring its evolution and spread, and to inform more rapid and effective diagnostic and therapeutic strategies.

A nationwide study of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Portugal 2014-2017 using epidemiological and molecular clustering analyses

Background

Increasing multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) incidence is a major threat against TB eradication worldwide. We aim to conduct a detailed MDR-TB study in Portugal, an European country with endemic TB, combining genetic analysis and epidemiological data, in order to assess the efficiency of public health containment of MRD-TB in the country.

Methods

We used published MIRU-VNTR data, that we reanalysed using a phylogenetic analysis to better describe MDR-TB cases transmission occurring in Portugal from 2014 to 2017, further enriched with epidemiological data of these cases.

Results

We show an MDR-TB transmission scenario, where MDR strains likely arose and are transmitted within local chains. 63% of strains were clustered, suggesting high primary transmission (estimated as 50% using MIRU-VNTR data and 15% considering epidemiological links). These values are higher than those observed across Europe and even for sensitive strains in Portugal using similar methodologies. MDR-TB cases are associated with individuals born in Portugal and evolutionary analysis suggests a local evolution of strains. Consistently the sublineage LAM, the most common in sensitive strains in Europe, is the more frequent in Portugal in contrast with the remaining European MDR-TB picture where immigrant-associated Beijing strains are more common.

Conclusions

Despite efforts to track and contain MDR-TB strains in Portugal, their transmission patterns are still as uncontrolled as that of sensitive strains, stressing the need to reinforce surveillance and containment strategies.

Electronic supplementary material

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Role and value of whole genome sequencing in studying tuberculosis transmission

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a serious public health threat worldwide. Theoretically ultimate resolution of whole genome sequencing (WGS) for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) strain classification makes this technology very attractive for epidemiological investigations.

OBJECTIVES

To summarize the evidence available in peer-reviewed publications on the role and place of WGS in detection of TB transmission.

SOURCES

A total of 69 peer-reviewed publications identified in Pubmed database.

CONTENT

Evidence from >30 publications suggests that a cut-off value of fewer than six single nucleotide polymorphisms between strains efficiently excludes cases that are not the result of recent transmission and could be used for the identification of drug-sensitive isolates involved in direct human-to-human TB transmission. Sensitivity of WGS to identify epidemiologically linked isolates is high, reaching 100% in eight studies with specificity (17%-95%) highly dependent on the settings. Drug resistance and specific phylogenetic lineages may be associated with accelerated mutation rates affecting genetic distances. WGS can be potentially used to distinguish between true relapses and re-infections but in high-incidence low-diversity settings this would require consideration of epidemiological links and minority alleles. Data from four studies looking into within-host diversity highlight a need for developing criteria for acceptance or rejection of WGS relatedness results depending on the proportion of minority alleles.

IMPLICATIONS

WGS will potentially allow for more targeted public health actions preventing unnecessary investigations of false clusters. Consensus on standardization of raw data quality control processing criteria, analytical pipelines and reporting language is yet to be reached.

Simplified Model to Survey Tuberculosis Transmission in Countries Without Systematic Molecular Epidemiology Programs

Systematic molecular/genomic epidemiology studies for tuberculosis surveillance cannot be implemented in many countries. We selected Panama as a model for an alternative strategy. Mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) analysis revealed a high proportion (50%) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates included in 6 clusters (A-F) in 2 provinces (Panama and Colon). Cluster A corresponded to the Beijing sublineage. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) differentiated clusters due to active recent transmission, with low single-nucleotide polymorphism-based diversity (cluster C), from clusters involving long-term prevalent strains with higher diversity (clusters A, B). Prospective application in Panama of 3 tailored strain-specific PCRs targeting marker single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified from WGS data revealed that 31.4% of incident cases involved strains A-C and that the Beijing strain was highly represented and restricted mainly to Colon. Rational integration of MIRU-VNTR, WGS, and tailored strain-specific PCRs could be a new model for tuberculosis surveillance in countries without molecular/genomic epidemiology programs.

Whole genome sequencing for improved understanding of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in a remote circumpolar region

Few studies have used genomic epidemiology to understand tuberculosis (TB) transmission in rural and remote settings - regions often unique in history, geography and demographics. To improve our understanding of TB transmission dynamics in Yukon Territory (YT), a circumpolar Canadian territory, we conducted a retrospective analysis in which we combined epidemiological data collected through routine contact investigations with clinical and laboratory results. Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from all culture-confirmed TB cases in YT (2005-2014) were genotyped using 24-locus Mycobacterial Interspersed Repetitive Units-Variable Number of Tandem Repeats (MIRU-VNTR) and compared to each other and to those from the neighbouring province of British Columbia (BC). Whole genome sequencing (WGS) of genotypically clustered isolates revealed three sustained transmission networks within YT, two of which also involved BC isolates. While each network had distinct characteristics, all had at least one individual acting as the probable source of three or more culture-positive cases. Overall, WGS revealed that TB transmission dynamics in YT are distinct from patterns of spread in other, more remote Northern Canadian regions, and that the combination of WGS and epidemiological data can provide actionable information to local public health teams.

China's tuberculosis epidemic stems from historical expansion of four strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

A small number of high-burden countries account for the majority of tuberculosis cases worldwide. Detailed data are lacking from these regions. To explore the evolutionary history of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in China-the country with the third highest tuberculosis burden-we analysed a countrywide collection of 4,578 isolates. Little genetic diversity was detected, with 99.4% of the bacterial population belonging to lineage 2 and three sublineages of lineage 4. The deeply rooted phylogenetic positions and geographic restriction of these four genotypes indicate that their populations expanded in situ following a small number of introductions to China. Coalescent analyses suggest that these bacterial subpopulations emerged in China around 1,000 years ago, and expanded in parallel from the twelfth century onwards, and that the whole population peaked in the late eighteenth century. More recently, sublineage L2.3, which is indigenous to China and exhibited relatively high transmissibility and extensive global dissemination, came to dominate the population dynamics of M. tuberculosis in China. Our results indicate that historical expansion of four M. tuberculosis strains shaped the current tuberculosis epidemic in China, and highlight the long-term genetic continuity of the indigenous M. tuberculosis population.

The relationship between transmission time and clustering methods in Mycobacterium tuberculosis epidemiology

BACKGROUND

Tracking recent transmission is a vital part of controlling widespread pathogens such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Multiple methods with specific performance characteristics exist for detecting recent transmission chains, usually by clustering strains based on genotype similarities. With such a large variety of methods available, informed selection of an appropriate approach for determining transmissions within a given setting/time period is difficult.

METHODS

This study combines whole genome sequence (WGS) data derived from 324 isolates collected 2005-2010 in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a high endemic setting, with phylodynamics to unveil the timing of transmission events posited by a variety of standard genotyping methods. Clustering data based on Spoligotyping, 24-loci MIRU-VNTR typing, WGS based SNP (Single Nucleotide Polymorphism) and core genome multi locus sequence typing (cgMLST) typing were evaluated.

FINDINGS

Our results suggest that clusters based on Spoligotyping could encompass transmission events that occurred almost 200 years prior to sampling while 24-loci-MIRU-VNTR often represented three decades of transmission. Instead, WGS based genotyping applying low SNP or cgMLST allele thresholds allows for determination of recent transmission events, e.g. in timespans of up to 10 years for a 5 SNP/allele cut-off.

INTERPRETATION

With the rapid uptake of WGS methods in surveillance and outbreak tracking, the findings obtained in this study can guide the selection of appropriate clustering methods for uncovering relevant transmission chains within a given time-period. For high resolution cluster analyses, WGS-SNP and cgMLST based analyses have similar clustering/timing characteristics even for data obtained from a high incidence setting.

Within-host Mycobacterium tuberculosis diversity and its utility for inferences of transmission

Whole genome sequencing in conjunction with traditional epidemiology has been used to reconstruct transmission networks of Mycobacterium tuberculosis during outbreaks. Given its low mutation rate, genetic diversity within M. tuberculosis outbreaks can be extremely limited - making it difficult to determine precisely who transmitted to whom. In addition to consensus SNPs (cSNPs), examining heterogeneous alleles (hSNPs) has been proposed to improve resolution. However, few studies have examined the potential biases in detecting these hSNPs. Here, we analysed genome sequence data from 25 specimens from British Columbia, Canada. Specimens were sequenced to a depth of 112-296×. We observed biases in read depth, base quality, strand distribution and read placement where possible hSNPs were initially identified, so we applied conservative filters to reduce false positives. Overall, there was phylogenetic concordance between the observed 2542 cSNP and 63 hSNP loci. Furthermore, we identified hSNPs shared exclusively by epidemiologically linked patients, supporting their use in transmission inferences. We conclude that hSNPs may add resolution to transmission networks, particularly where the overall genetic diversity is low.

Mycobacterium bovis Persistence in Two Different Captive Wild Animal Populations in Germany: a Longitudinal Molecular Epidemiological Study Revealing Pathogen Transmission by Whole-Genome Sequencing

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) caused by Mycobacterium bovis is a transmissible disease notifiable to the World Organization for Animal Health and to the European Union, with ongoing efforts of surveillance and eradication in every EU member state. In Germany, a country which has been declared officially free from bovine tuberculosis since 1997 by the EU, M. bovis infections still occur sporadically in cattle and other mammals, including humans. Here, the transmission routes of a bTB outbreak in a wildlife park in Germany affecting different cervid species, bison, lynx, and pot-bellied pigs were followed by employing whole-genome sequencing (WGS) combined with spoligotyping and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) typing. One single M. bovis strain persisted from 2002 to 2015, and transmission between the park and a distantly located captive cervid farm was verified. The spoligotyping patterns remained identical, while MIRU-VNTR typing of 24 loci of the standardized panel and locus 2163a as an additional locus revealed one change at locus 2165 in a strain from a fallow deer and one at locus 2461 in isolates from red deer over the whole time period. WGS analysis confirmed the close relatedness of the isolates, with a maximum of 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) detected between any two sequenced isolates. In conclusion, our data confirm a longitudinal outbreak of M. bovis in a German wildlife park and provide the first insights into the dynamics of different genotyping markers in M. bovis.

Harmonized Genome Wide Typing of Tubercle Bacilli Using a Web-Based Gene-By-Gene Nomenclature System

Background

Global tuberculosis (TB) control is challenged by uncontrolled transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (Mtbc) strains, esp. of multidrug (MDR) or extensively resistant (XDR) variants. Precise analysis of transmission networks is the basis to trace outbreak M/XDR clones and improve TB control. However, classical genotyping tools lack discriminatory power due to the high similarity of strains of particular successful lineages, e.g. Beijing or outbreak strains. This can be overcome by whole genome sequencing (WGS) approaches, but these are not yet standardized to facilitate larger investigations encompassing different laboratories or outbreak tracing across borders.

Methods

We established and improved a whole genome gene-by-gene multi locus sequence typing approach encompassing a stable set of core genome genes (cgMLST) and linked it to a web-based nomenclature server (cgMLST.org) facilitating assignment and storage of allele numbers.

Findings

We evaluated and refined a previously suggested cgMLST schema by using a reference strain set (n = 251) reflecting the global diversity of the Mtbc. A set of 2891 genes showed excellent performance with at least 97% of the genes reliably identified in strains of all Mtbc lineages and in discriminating outbreak strains. cgMLST allele numbers were automatically retrieved from and stored at cgMLST.org.

Interpretation

The refined cgMLST schema provides high resolution genome-based typing of clinical strains of all Mtbc lineages. Combined with a web-based nomenclature server, it facilitates rapid, high-resolution, and harmonized tracing of clinical Mtbc strains needed for prospective local and global surveillance.

A Major Mycobacterium tuberculosis outbreak caused by one specific genotype in a low-incidence country: Exploring gene profile virulence explanations

Denmark, a tuberculosis low burden country, still experiences significant active Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission, especially with one specific genotype named Cluster 2/1112-15 (C2), the most prevalent lineage in Scandinavia. In addition to environmental factors, antibiotic resistance, and human genetics, there is increasing evidence that Mtb strain variation plays a role for the outcome of infection and disease. In this study, we explore the reasons for the success of the C2 genotype by analysing strain specific polymorphisms identified through whole genome sequencing of all C2 isolates identified in Denmark between 1992 and 2014 (n = 952), and the demographic distribution of C2. Of 234 non-synonymous (NS) monomorphic SNPs found in C2 in comparison with Mtb reference strain H37Rv, 23 were in genes previously reported to be involved in Mtb virulence. Of these 23 SNPs, three were specific for C2 including a NS mutation in a gene associated with hyper-virulence. We show that the genotype is readily transmitted to different ethnicities and is also found outside Denmark. Our data suggest that strain specific virulence factor variations are important for the success of the C2 genotype. These factors, likely in combination with poor TB control, seem to be the main drivers of C2 success.

Epidemiological links between tuberculosis cases identified twice as efficiently by whole genome sequencing than conventional molecular typing: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

Patients with Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates sharing identical DNA fingerprint patterns can be epidemiologically linked. However, municipal health services in the Netherlands are able to confirm an epidemiological link in only around 23% of the patients with isolates clustered by the conventional variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) genotyping. This research aims to investigate whether whole genome sequencing (WGS) is a more reliable predictor of epidemiological links between tuberculosis patients than VNTR genotyping.

METHODS

VNTR genotyping and WGS were performed in parallel on all Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex isolates received at the Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment in 2016. Isolates were clustered by VNTR when they shared identical 24-loci VNTR patterns; isolates were assigned to a WGS cluster when the pair-wise genetic distance was ≤ 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Cluster investigation was performed by municipal health services on all isolates clustered by VNTR in 2016. The proportion of epidemiological links identified among patients clustered by either method was calculated.

RESULTS

In total, 535 isolates were genotyped, of which 25% (134/535) were clustered by VNTR and 14% (76/535) by WGS; the concordance between both typing methods was 86%. The proportion of epidemiological links among WGS clustered cases (57%) was twice as common than among VNTR clustered cases (31%).

CONCLUSION

When WGS was applied, the number of clustered isolates was halved, while all epidemiologically linked cases remained clustered. WGS is therefore a more reliable tool to predict epidemiological links between tuberculosis cases than VNTR genotyping and will allow more efficient transmission tracing, as epidemiological investigations based on false clustering can be avoided.

Occurrence and Nature of Double Alleles in Variable-Number Tandem-Repeat Patterns of More than 8,000 Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Isolates in The Netherlands

Since 2004, variable-number tandem-repeat (VNTR) typing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex isolates has been applied on a structural basis in The Netherlands to study the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB). Although this technique is faster and technically less demanding than the previously used restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) typing, reproducibility remains a concern. In the period from 2004 to 2015, 8,532 isolates were subjected to VNTR typing in The Netherlands, with 186 (2.2%) of these exhibiting double alleles at one locus. Double alleles were most common in loci 4052 and 2163b. The variables significantly associated with double alleles were urban living (odds ratio [OR], 1.503; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.084 to 2.084; P = 0.014) and pulmonary TB (OR, 1.703; 95% CI, 1.216 to 2.386; P = 0.002). Single-colony cultures of double-allele strains were produced and revealed single-allele profiles; a maximum of five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was observed between the single- and double-allele isolates from the same patient when whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was applied. This indicates the presence of two bacterial populations with slightly different VNTR profiles in the parental population, related to genetic drift. This observation is confirmed by the fact that secondary cases from TB source cases with double-allele isolates sometimes display only one of the two alleles present in the source case. Double alleles occur at a frequency of 2.2% in VNTR patterns in The Netherlands. They are caused by biological variation rather than by technical aberrations and can be transmitted either as single- or double-allele variants.

A Practical Guide to Estimating the Heritability of Pathogen Traits

Pathogen traits, such as the virulence of an infection, can vary significantly between patients. A major challenge is to measure the extent to which genetic differences between infecting strains explain the observed variation of the trait. This is quantified by the trait’s broad-sense heritability, H². A recent discrepancy between estimates of the heritability of HIV-virulence has opened a debate on the estimators’ accuracy. Here, we show that the discrepancy originates from model limitations and important lifecycle differences between sexually reproducing organisms and transmittable pathogens. In particular, current quantitative genetics methods, such as donor–recipient regression of surveyed serodiscordant couples and the phylogenetic mixed model (PMM), are prone to underestimate H², because they neglect or do not fit to the loss of resemblance between transmission partners caused by within-host evolution. In a phylogenetic analysis of 8,483 HIV patients from the United Kingdom, we show that the phenotypic correlation between transmission partners decays with the amount of within-host evolution of the virus. We reproduce this pattern in toy-model simulations and show that a phylogenetic Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model (POUMM) outperforms the PMM in capturing this correlation pattern and in quantifying H². In particular, we show that POUMM outperforms PMM even in simulations without selection—as it captures the mentioned correlation pattern—which has not been appreciated until now. By cross-validating the POUMM estimates with ANOVA on closest phylogenetic pairs, we obtain H² ≈ 0.2, meaning ∼20% of the variation in HIV-virulence is explained by the virus genome both for European and African data.

Trends and differences in tuberculosis incidences and clustering among natives in Denmark, Sweden and Finland: comparison of native incidences and molecular epidemiology among three low-incidence countries

OBJECTIVES

To compare the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in Denmark, Sweden and Finland, by focusing on the native population in order to identify epidemiologic differences and thus indirectly possible differences in TB control.

METHODS

TB incidence trends from 1990 through 2015 were compared among the countries. In addition, for the periods 2012-2013 and 2014-2015, genotyping data were compared. Genotyping was performed using the 24-locus mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable number of tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) method in Denmark and Sweden. For Finland, spoligotyping in conjunction with the 15-locus MIRU-VNTR method was used for 2012-2013 and translated into the 24-locus MIRU-VNTR when feasible, and for 2014-2015 only MIRU-VNTR was used. Both incidence trends and molecular epidemiology were assessed for native cases.

RESULTS

The average annual rate of change in TB incidence for native Danes was -2.4% vs. -6.1% and -6.9% for native Swedes and Finns respectively. In 2012-2013 Denmark had 52 native cases in the largest transmission chain vs. three cases in Sweden and ten in Finland, and during the same period the clustering rate for native Danes was 48.8% vs. 6.5% and 18.2% for native Swedes and Finns respectively. For 2014-2015, a similar pattern was seen.

CONCLUSIONS

The decline of TB among natives in Denmark is slower than for Sweden and Finland, and it seems Denmark has more active transmission among natives. The focused assessment on basic native TB epidemiology reveals striking differences in TB transmission among otherwise similar low-TB-incidence countries.

Application of whole genome sequence analysis to the study of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Nunavut, Canada

Canada has one of the lowest rates of tuberculosis (TB) in the world, however, among certain sub-populations, disease incidence rates approach those observed in sub-Saharan Africa, and other high incidence regions. In this study, we applied mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit (MIRU) variable number of tandem repeat (VNTR) and whole genome sequencing (WGS) to the analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates obtained from Northern communities in the territory of Nunavut. WGS was carried out using the Illumina MiSeq, with identified variants used to infer phylogenetic relationships and annotated to infer functional implications. Additionally, the sequencing data from these isolates were augmented with publically available WGS to evaluate data from the Nunavut outbreak in the broader Canadian context. In this study, isolates could be classified into four major clusters by MIRU-VNTR analysis. These could be further resolved into sub-clusters using WGS. No evidence for antimicrobial resistance, either genetic or phenotypic, was observed in this cohort. Among most subjects with multiple samples, reactivation/incomplete treatment likely contributed to recurrence. However, isolates from two subjects appeared more likely to have occurred via reinfection, based on the large number of genomic single nucleotide variants detected. Finally, although quite distinct from previously reported Canadian MTB strains, isolates obtained from Nunavut clustered most closely with a cohort of samples originating in the Nunavik region of Northern Quebec. This study demonstrates the benefit of using WGS for discriminatory analysis of MTB in Canada, especially in high incidence regions. It further emphasizes the importance of focusing epidemiological intervention efforts on interrupting transmission chains of endemic TB throughout Northern communities, rather than relying on strategies applied in regions where the majority of TB cases result from importation of foreign strains.

Genomic Epidemiology of a Major Mycobacterium tuberculosis Outbreak: Retrospective Cohort Study in a Low-Incidence Setting Using Sparse Time-Series Sampling

Since 1992, Denmark has documented the largest outbreak of tuberculosis in Scandinavia ascribed to a single genotype, termed C2/1112-15. As of spring 2017, the International Reference Laboratory of Mycobacteriology in Copenhagen has collected and identified isolates from more than a thousand cases belonging to this outbreak via routine mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeats typing. Here, we present a retrospective analysis of the C2/1112-15 dataset, based on whole-genome data from a sparse time series consisting of 5 randomly selected isolates from 23 years of sampling. Even if these data are derived from only 12% of the collected isolates, we have been able to extract important key information, such as mutation rate and conserved single-nucleotide polymorphisms to identify discrete transmission chains, as well as the possible historical origins of the outbreak.

The Evolution of Strain Typing in the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex

Tuberculosis (TB) is a contagious disease with a complex epidemiology. Therefore, molecular typing (genotyping) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) strains is of primary importance to effectively guide outbreak investigations, define transmission dynamics and assist global epidemiological surveillance of the disease. Large-scale genotyping is also needed to get better insights into the biological diversity and the evolution of the pathogen. Thanks to its shorter turnaround and simple numerical nomenclature system, mycobacterial interspersed repetitive unit-variable-number tandem repeat (MIRU-VNTR) typing, based on 24 standardized plus 4 hypervariable loci, optionally combined with spoligotyping, has replaced IS6110 DNA fingerprinting over the last decade as a gold standard among classical strain typing methods for many applications. With the continuous progress and decreasing costs of next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies, typing based on whole genome sequencing (WGS) is now increasingly performed for near complete exploitation of the available genetic information. However, some important challenges remain such as the lack of standardization of WGS analysis pipelines, the need of databases for sharing WGS data at a global level, and a better understanding of the relevant genomic distances for defining clusters of recent TB transmission in different epidemiological contexts. This chapter provides an overview of the evolution of genotyping methods over the last three decades, which culminated with the development of WGS-based methods. It addresses the relative advantages and limitations of these techniques, indicates current challenges and potential directions for facilitating standardization of WGS-based typing, and provides suggestions on what method to use depending on the specific research question.