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Zhou Y, Gu S, Yang H, Li Y, Zhao Y, Li Y, Yang Q. Spatiotemporal variation in heatwaves and elderly population exposure across China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 917:170245. [PMID: 38278263 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2023] [Revised: 01/03/2024] [Accepted: 01/15/2024] [Indexed: 01/28/2024]
Abstract
Heatwaves have been intensified worldwide due to climate change, posing great health risks, especially to elderly populations. However, in China, limited studies have employed the heat index to decipher the spatiotemporal trends of heatwaves and their impacts on the elderly population. By comparing the three heatwave definitions, this study aimed to evaluate the long-term spatiotemporal variations in heatwaves from 1964 to 2022 across China using the Excess Heat Factor (EHF). We took advantage of high-resolution reanalysis temperature data on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to efficiently calculate the heatwaves. Our results revealed that the frequency and duration of heatwaves increased significantly in approximately 77 % of China's total area, with South China experiencing the most frequent and prolonged heatwaves. Conversely, in most areas, no significant trend was discerned in the growth of the maximum and average heatwave intensities. The total number of elderly people affected by heatwaves surged from approximately 11.96 million in 2001 to over 30.31 million in 2020, with an estimated additional 1.12 million older adults exposed to heatwaves annually across the nation (R2 = 0.60, p < 0.05). The population factor exhibited largest effect on the exposure of heatwaves, followed by climate effects and combined factors, with the corresponding explanatory power about 42.84 %, 34.85 % and 22.31 %, respectively. These individuals predominantly resided in the Northeast China, Southwest China, and South China. We also found geographical variations in heatwave exposure along elevations and land use types. These insights underscore the pressing necessity for formulating strategic interventions to mitigate the health threats presented by mounting heatwave exposure, especially for susceptible groups like the elderly in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yun Zhou
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China; New Liberal Arts Laboratory for Sustainable Development of Rural Western China, Chongqing 400715, China; Key Laboratory of Monitoring, Evaluation and Early Warning of Territorial Spatial Planning Implementation, Ministry of Natural Resources, 401147, China
| | - Songwei Gu
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
| | - Hong Yang
- Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AB, UK.
| | - Yao Li
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
| | - Yinjun Zhao
- Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Resources Use in Beibu Gulf, Ministry of Education, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530001, China
| | - Yuechen Li
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
| | - Qingyuan Yang
- Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China; New Liberal Arts Laboratory for Sustainable Development of Rural Western China, Chongqing 400715, China; Key Laboratory of Monitoring, Evaluation and Early Warning of Territorial Spatial Planning Implementation, Ministry of Natural Resources, 401147, China.
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2
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Zhou J, Wu C, Yeh PJF, Ju J, Zhong L, Wang S, Zhang J. Anthropogenic climate change exacerbates the risk of successive flood-heat extremes: Multi-model global projections based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 889:164274. [PMID: 37209749 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164274] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2023] [Revised: 05/15/2023] [Accepted: 05/15/2023] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
The successive flood-heat extreme (SFHE) event, which threatens the securities of human health, economy, and building environment, has attracted extensive research attention recently. However, the potential changes in SFHE characteristics and the global population exposure to SFHE under anthropogenic warming remain unclear. Here, we present a global-scale evaluation of the projected changes and uncertainties in SFHE characteristics (frequency, intensity, duration, land exposure) and population exposure under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 6.0 scenarios, based on the multi-model ensembles (five global water models forced by four global climate models) within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project 2b framework. The results reveal that, relative to the 1970-1999 baseline period, the SFHE frequency is projected to increase nearly globally by the end of this century, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (>20 events/30-year) and the tropical regions (e.g., northern South America, central Africa, and southeastern Asia, >15 events/30-year). The projected higher SFHE frequency is generally accompanied by a larger model uncertainty. By the end of this century, the SFHE land exposure is expected to increase by 12 % (20 %) under RCP2.6 (RCP6.0), and the intervals between flood and heatwave in SFHE tend to decrease by up to 3 days under both RCPs, implying the more intermittent SFHE occurrence under future warming. The SFHE events will lead to the higher population exposure in the Indian Peninsula and central Africa (<10 million person-days) and eastern Asia (<5 million person-days) due to the higher population density and the longer SFHE duration. Partial correlation analysis indicates that the contribution of flood to the SFHE frequency is greater than that of heatwave for most global regions, but the SFHE frequency is dominated by the heatwave in northern North America and northern Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jun Zhou
- Department of Ecology, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
| | - Chuanhao Wu
- Department of Ecology, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China.
| | - Pat J-F Yeh
- Discipline of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, Monash University, Malaysia Campus, Malaysia
| | - Jiali Ju
- School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Lulu Zhong
- School of Environment, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511443, China
| | - Saisai Wang
- School of Environment, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511443, China
| | - Junlong Zhang
- College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358, China
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3
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Jibhakate SM, Gehlot LK, Timbadiya PV, Patel PL. Spatiotemporal variability of extreme temperature indices and their implications over the heterogeneous river basin, India. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2023; 195:664. [PMID: 37171502 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-11196-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2022] [Accepted: 04/01/2023] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
The current study on spatiotemporal variability of temperature presents a holistic approach for quantifying the joint space-time variability of extreme temperature indices over the physio-climatically heterogeneous Tapi River basin (TRB) using two unsupervised machine learning algorithms, i.e., principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis. The long-term variability in extreme temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), was evaluated for 1951-2016. The magnitude and statistical significance of the temporal trend in extreme temperature indices were estimated using non-parametric Sen's slope estimator and modified Mann Kendall (MMK) tests, respectively. The multivariate assessment of temporal trends using PCA resulted in four principal components (PCs) encapsulating more than 90% variability. The cluster analysis of corresponding PCs resulted in two spatial clusters exhibiting homogeneous spatiotemporal variability. Cluster 1 is characterized by significantly increasing hottest, very hot, and extremely hot days with rising average maximum temperature and intraday temperature variability. On the other hand, cluster 2 showed significantly rising coldest nights, mean minimum, mean temperature, and Tx37 with significantly decreasing intraday and interannual temperature variability, very cold, and extremely cold nights with reducing cold spell durations. The summertime heat stress computation revealed that the Purna sub-catchment of the Tapi basin is more vulnerable to various health issues and decreased work performance (> 10%) for more than 45 days per year. The current study dealing with the associated effects of rising temperature variability on crop yield, human health, and work performance would help policymakers formulate better planning and management strategies to safeguard society and the environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shubham M Jibhakate
- Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology Surat, Surat, Gujarat, 395007, India
| | - Lalit Kumar Gehlot
- Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology Surat, Surat, Gujarat, 395007, India
| | - P V Timbadiya
- Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology Surat, Surat, Gujarat, 395007, India.
| | - P L Patel
- Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology Surat, Surat, Gujarat, 395007, India
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4
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Dong D, Tao H, Zhang Z. Historic evolution of population exposure to heatwaves in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. Sci Rep 2023; 13:7401. [PMID: 37149675 PMCID: PMC10164190 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-34123-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2022] [Accepted: 04/25/2023] [Indexed: 05/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Heatwaves have pronounced impacts on human health and the environment on a global scale. Although the characteristics of heatwaves has been well documented, there still remains a lack of dynamic studies of population exposure to heatwaves (PEH), particularly in the arid regions. In this study, we analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of heatwaves and PEH in Xinjiang using the daily maximum temperature (Tmax), relative humidity (RH), and high-resolution gridded population datasets. The results revealed that the heatwaves in Xinjiang occur more continually and intensely from 1961 to 2020. Furthermore, there is substantial spatial heterogeneity of heatwaves with eastern part of the Tarim Basin, Turpan, and Hami been the most prone areas. The PEH in Xinjiang showed an increasing trend with high areas mainly in Kashgar, Aksu, Turpan, and Hotan. The increase in PEH is mainly contributed from population growth, climate change and their interaction. From 2001 to 2020, the climate effect contribution decreased by 8.5%, the contribution rate of population and interaction effects increased by 3.3% and 5.2%, respectively. This work provides a scientific basis for the development of policies to improve the resilience against hazards in arid regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diwen Dong
- College of Ecology and Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830046, China
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
- College of Statistics & Data Science, Xinjiang University of Finance & Economics, Urumqi, 830012, China
| | - Hui Tao
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China
| | - Zengxin Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China.
- Joint Innovation Center for Modern Forestry Studies, College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, Jiangsu, China.
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Eker S, Mastrucci A, Pachauri S, van Ruijven B. Social media data shed light on air-conditioning interest of heat-vulnerable regions and sociodemographic groups. ONE EARTH (CAMBRIDGE, MASS.) 2023; 6:428-440. [PMID: 37128238 PMCID: PMC10140935 DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.03.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2022] [Revised: 08/30/2022] [Accepted: 03/27/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Cooling homes with air conditioners is a vital adaptation approach, but the wider adoption of air conditioners can increase hydrofluorocarbon emissions that have high global warming potential and carbon emissions as a result of more fossil energy consumption. The scale and scope of future cooling demand worldwide are, however, uncertain because the extent and drivers of air-conditioning adoption remain unclear. Here, using 2021 and 2022 Facebook and Instagram data from 113 countries, we investigate the usability of social media advertising data to address these data gaps in relation to the drivers of air-conditioning adoption. We find that social media data might represent air-conditioning purchasing trends. Globally, parents of small children and middle-aged, highly educated married or cohabiting males tend to express greater interest in air-conditioning adoption. In regions with high heat vulnerability yet little empirical data on cooling demand (e.g., the Middle East and North Africa), these sociodemographic factors play a more prominent role. These findings can strengthen our understanding of future cooling demand for more sustainable cooling management.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sibel Eker
- Nijmegen School of Management, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- Corresponding author
| | - Alessio Mastrucci
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Shonali Pachauri
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Bas van Ruijven
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
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Elbehiry A, Abalkhail A, Marzouk E, Elmanssury AE, Almuzaini AM, Alfheeaid H, Alshahrani MT, Huraysh N, Ibrahem M, Alzaben F, Alanazi F, Alzaben M, Anagreyyah SA, Bayameen AM, Draz A, Abu-Okail A. An Overview of the Public Health Challenges in Diagnosing and Controlling Human Foodborne Pathogens. Vaccines (Basel) 2023; 11:vaccines11040725. [PMID: 37112637 PMCID: PMC10143666 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines11040725] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2023] [Revised: 03/19/2023] [Accepted: 03/21/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023] Open
Abstract
Pathogens found in food are believed to be the leading cause of foodborne illnesses; and they are considered a serious problem with global ramifications. During the last few decades, a lot of attention has been paid to determining the microorganisms that cause foodborne illnesses and developing new methods to identify them. Foodborne pathogen identification technologies have evolved rapidly over the last few decades, with the newer technologies focusing on immunoassays, genome-wide approaches, biosensors, and mass spectrometry as the primary methods of identification. Bacteriophages (phages), probiotics and prebiotics were known to have the ability to combat bacterial diseases since the turn of the 20th century. A primary focus of phage use was the development of medical therapies; however, its use quickly expanded to other applications in biotechnology and industry. A similar argument can be made with regards to the food safety industry, as diseases directly endanger the health of customers. Recently, a lot of attention has been paid to bacteriophages, probiotics and prebiotics most likely due to the exhaustion of traditional antibiotics. Reviewing a variety of current quick identification techniques is the purpose of this study. Using these techniques, we are able to quickly identify foodborne pathogenic bacteria, which forms the basis for future research advances. A review of recent studies on the use of phages, probiotics and prebiotics as a means of combating significant foodborne diseases is also presented. Furthermore, we discussed the advantages of using phages as well as the challenges they face, especially given their prevalent application in food safety.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ayman Elbehiry
- Department of Public Health, College of Public Health and Health Informatics, Qassim University, Al Bukayriyah 52741, Saudi Arabia (E.M.)
- Department of Bacteriology, Mycology and Immunology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Sadat City, Sadat City 32511, Egypt
- Correspondence:
| | - Adil Abalkhail
- Department of Public Health, College of Public Health and Health Informatics, Qassim University, Al Bukayriyah 52741, Saudi Arabia (E.M.)
| | - Eman Marzouk
- Department of Public Health, College of Public Health and Health Informatics, Qassim University, Al Bukayriyah 52741, Saudi Arabia (E.M.)
| | - Ahmed Elnadif Elmanssury
- Department of Public Health, College of Public Health and Health Informatics, Qassim University, Al Bukayriyah 52741, Saudi Arabia (E.M.)
| | - Abdulaziz M. Almuzaini
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, College of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine, Qassim University, Buraydah 52571, Saudi Arabia
| | - Hani Alfheeaid
- Department of Food Science and Human Nutrition, College of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine, Qassim University, Buraydah 51452, Saudi Arabia
- Human Nutrition, School of Medicine, Nursing and Dentistry, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G31 2ER, UK
| | - Mohammed T. Alshahrani
- Department of Neurology, Prince Sultan Military Medical City, Riyadh 12233, Saudi Arabia
| | - Nasser Huraysh
- Department of Family Medicine, King Fahad Armed Hospital, Jeddah 23311, Saudi Arabia
| | - Mai Ibrahem
- Department of Public Health, College of Applied Medical Science, King Khalid University, Abha 61421, Saudi Arabia;
- Department of Aquatic Animal Medicine and Management, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Cairo University, Cairo 12211, Egypt
| | - Feras Alzaben
- Department of Food Service, King Fahad Armed Hospital, Jeddah 23311, Saudi Arabia
| | - Farhan Alanazi
- Supply Administration, Armed Forces Hospital, King Abdul Aziz Naval Base in Jubail, Jubail 35517, Saudi Arabia
| | - Mohammed Alzaben
- Department of Food Factories Inspection, Operation Sector, Saudi Food and Drug Authority, Riyadh 13513, Saudi Arabia
| | | | | | - Abdelmaged Draz
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, College of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine, Qassim University, Buraydah 52571, Saudi Arabia
| | - Akram Abu-Okail
- Department of Veterinary Medicine, College of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine, Qassim University, Buraydah 52571, Saudi Arabia
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Guo L, Di L, Zhang C, Lin L, Chen F, Molla A. Evaluating contributions of urbanization and global climate change to urban land surface temperature change: a case study in Lagos, Nigeria. Sci Rep 2022; 12:14168. [PMID: 35986051 PMCID: PMC9391356 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-18193-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/12/2022] [Accepted: 08/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
This study develops a general method to evaluate the contributions of localized urbanization and global climate change to long-term urban land surface temperature (ULST) change. The method is based on the understanding that long-term annual ULST is controlled by three factors: (1) localized urbanization, (2) global climate change, and (3) interannual climate variation. Then the method removes the interannual climate fluctuations on long-term observed LST time series via linear regression and separates the contributions of urbanization and climate change to the impacts on long-term ULST via urban–rural comparison. The method is applied to Lagos, a fast-growing metropolis in the tropical West Africa, as an example for reference. Combined time-series daily daytime and nighttime MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data over the years of 2003–2021 are used as the representation of land surface temperature. To avoid the potentioal interannual data biase due to uneven availability of data in the rainy seasons over years, only MODIS LST data from dry seasons are used in the study. The results are summarized as follows for Lagos: (1) long-term annual ULST is confirmed to be controlled by the three factors; (2) the proposed method can separate the contribution of the three factors to the ULST; (2) both localized urbanization and global warming are verified to contribute to the ULST increase with positive trends; (3) daytime ULST increased the most in the afternoon time at a mean rate of 1.429 °C per decade, with 0.985 °C (10 year)−1 contributed by urbanization and 0.444 °C (10 year)−1 contributed by climate warming; (4) nighttime ULST in Lagos increased the most after midnight at a rate of 0.563 °C (10 year)−1, with 0.56 °C (10 year)−1 contributed by urbanization and 0.003 °C (10 year)−1 contributed by climate warming; and (5) urbanization is generally responsible for around 60.97% of the urban warming in Lagos. Therefore, the increasing urbaniztion-induced urban heat island effect is the major cause for more heat-related health risks and climate extremes that many urban residents are suffering. The results of this study are of useful reference for both urbanization and climate change related issues in the geo-science field.
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Weitz CA, Mukhopadhyay B, Das K. Individually experienced heat stress among elderly residents of an urban slum and rural village in India. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2022; 66:1145-1162. [PMID: 35359160 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-022-02264-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2021] [Revised: 01/10/2022] [Accepted: 03/02/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
The elderly are one of the most vulnerable groups to heat-related illnesses and mortality. In tropical countries like India, where heat waves have increased in frequency and severity, few studies have focused on the level of stress experienced by the elderly. The study presented here included 130 elderly residents of Kolkata slums and 180 elderly residents of rural villages about 75 km south of Kolkata. It used miniature monitoring devices to continuously measure temperature, humidity, and heat index experienced during everyday activities over 24-h study periods, during hot summer months. In the Kolkata slum, construction materials and the urban heat island effect combined to create hotter indoor than outdoor conditions throughout the day, and particularly at night. As a result, elderly slum residents were 4.3 times more likely to experience dangerous heat index levels (≥ 45°C) compared to rural village elderly. In both locations, the median 24-h heat indexes of active elderly were up to 2°C higher than inactive/sedentary elderly (F = 25.479, p < 0.001). Among Kolkata slums residents, there were no significant gender differences in heat exposure during the day or night, but in the rural village, elderly women were 4 times more likely to experience dangerous heat index levels during the hottest times of the day compared to elderly men. Given the decline in thermoregulatory capacity associated with aging and the increasing severity of extreme summer heat in India, these results forecast a growing public health challenge that will require both scientific and government attention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charles A Weitz
- Department of Anthropology, Temple University, 214 Gladfelter Hall, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
| | - Barun Mukhopadhyay
- Formerly, Biological Anthropology Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, 700 108, India
- Indian Anthropological Society, Kolkata, 700 019, India
| | - Ketaki Das
- West Bengal Voluntary Health Association, Kolkata, 700107, India
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9
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Wu Y, Wen B, Li S, Gasparrini A, Tong S, Overcenco A, Urban A, Schneider A, Entezari A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Zanobetti A, Analitis A, Zeka A, Tobias A, Alahmad B, Armstrong B, Forsberg B, Íñiguez C, Ameling C, De la Cruz Valencia C, Åström C, Houthuijs D, Van Dung D, Royé D, Indermitte E, Lavigne E, Mayvaneh F, Acquaotta F, de’Donato F, Sera F, Carrasco-Escobar G, Kan H, Orru H, Kim H, Holobaca IH, Kyselý J, Madureira J, Schwartz J, Katsouyanni K, Hurtado-Diaz M, Ragettli MS, Hashizume M, Pascal M, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho M, Scovronick N, Michelozzi P, Goodman P, Nascimento Saldiva PH, Abrutzky R, Osorio S, Dang TN, Colistro V, Huber V, Lee W, Seposo X, Honda Y, Bell ML, Guo Y. Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association in the globe. Innovation (N Y) 2022; 3:100225. [PMID: 35340394 PMCID: PMC8942841 DOI: 10.1016/j.xinn.2022.100225] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2021] [Accepted: 03/02/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We used location-specific quasi-Poisson regression models with an interaction term between the cross-basis term for mean temperature and quartiles of TV to obtain heat-mortality associations under each quartile of TV, and then pooled estimates at the country, regional, and global levels. Results show the increased risk in heat-related mortality with increments in TV, accounting for 0.70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.33 to 1.69), 1.34% (95% CI: −0.14 to 2.73), 1.99% (95% CI: 0.29–3.57), and 2.73% (95% CI: 0.76–4.50) of total deaths for Q1–Q4 (first quartile–fourth quartile) of TV. The modification effects of TV varied geographically. Central Europe had the highest attributable fractions (AFs), corresponding to 7.68% (95% CI: 5.25–9.89) of total deaths for Q4 of TV, while the lowest AFs were observed in North America, with the values for Q4 of 1.74% (95% CI: −0.09 to 3.39). TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health. Increased temperature variability (TV) poses a greater mortality risk due to heat TV has a more profound modification effect on extreme heat-mortality association Strategies against heat and TV simultaneously would benefit public health
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Affiliation(s)
- Yao Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
| | - Bo Wen
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
- Corresponding author
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
- Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children’s Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200025, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, China
- Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4000, Australia
| | - Ala Overcenco
- National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Chisinau MD-2009, Republic of Moldova
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague 141 00, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague 165 00, Czech Republic
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München–German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg 85747, Germany
| | - Alireza Entezari
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar 9617976487, Iran
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern 3012, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern 3012, Switzerland
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Antonis Analitis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens 11527, Greece
| | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute for Environment, Health, and Societies, Brunel University London, London UB8 3PN, UK
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona 08034, Spain
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki 852-8521, Japan
| | - Barrak Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå 901 87, Sweden
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València 46003, Spain
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid 28029, Spain
| | - Caroline Ameling
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven 3720 BA, Netherlands
| | - César De la Cruz Valencia
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos 62100, Mexico
| | - Christofer Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå 901 87, Sweden
| | - Danny Houthuijs
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven 3720 BA, Netherlands
| | - Do Van Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City 17000, Vietnam
| | - Dominic Royé
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid 28029, Spain
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela 15705, Spain
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu 50090, Estonia
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
- Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada
| | - Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar 9617976487, Iran
| | | | - Francesca de’Donato
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome 00147, Italy
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science, and Applications “G. Parenti”, University of Florence, Florence 50121, Italy
| | - Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar
- Health Innovation Laboratory, Institute of Tropical Medicine “Alexander von Humboldt”, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima 15102, Peru
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Hans Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu 50090, Estonia
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Republic of Korea
| | | | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague 141 00, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague 165 00, Czech Republic
| | - Joana Madureira
- EPIUnit – Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto 4050-600, Portugal
- Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto 4050-600, Portugal
- Environmental Health Department, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Porto 4000-055, Portugal
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Klea Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens 11527, Greece
- School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King’s College London, London WC2R 2LS, UK
| | - Magali Hurtado-Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos 62100, Mexico
| | - Martina S. Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel 4051, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel 4001, Switzerland
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8654, Japan
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice 94 410, France
| | | | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome 00147, Italy
| | | | | | - Rosana Abrutzky
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires C1053ABH, Argentina
| | - Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 01246-904, Brazil
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City 17000, Vietnam
| | - Valentina Colistro
- Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo 11200, Uruguay
| | - Veronika Huber
- IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, Ludwig Maximilian University Munich, Munich 81377, Germany
- Department of Physical, Chemical, and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla 41013, Spain
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul 03760, South Korea
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki 852-8521, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | - Michelle L. Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
- Corresponding author
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10
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Effect of the Near-Future Climate Change under RCP8.5 on the Heat Stress and Associated Work Performance in Thailand. ATMOSPHERE 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos13020325] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Increased heat stress affects well-being, comfort, and economic activities across the world. It also causes a significant decrease in work performance, as well as heat-related mortality. This study aims to investigate the impacts of the projected climate change scenario under RCP8.5 on heat stress and associated work performance in Thailand during the years 2020–2029. The model evaluation shows exceptional performance in the present-day simulation (1990–1999) of temperature and relative humidity, with R2 values ranging from 0.79 to 0.87; however, the modeled temperature and relative humidity are all underestimated when compared to observation data by −0.9 °C and −27%, respectively. The model results show that the temperature change will tend to increase by 0.62 °C per decade in the future. This could lead to an increase in the heat index by 2.57 °C if the temperature increases by up to 1.5 °C in Thailand. The effect of climate change is predicted to increase heat stress by 0.1 °C to 4 °C and to reduce work performance in the range of 4% to >10% across Thailand during the years 2020 and 2029.
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11
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Greene ES, Maynard C, Owens CM, Meullenet JF, Dridi S. Effects of Herbal Adaptogen Feed-Additive on Growth Performance, Carcass Parameters, and Muscle Amino Acid Profile in Heat-Stressed Modern Broilers. Front Physiol 2021; 12:784952. [PMID: 34899401 PMCID: PMC8654188 DOI: 10.3389/fphys.2021.784952] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2021] [Accepted: 10/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Heat stress has strong adverse effects on poultry production and, thereby, threats its sustainability, which energized scientists to search for innovative and effective solutions. Here, we undertook this study to evaluate the effects of in-feed herbal adaptogen (stress response modifier) supplementation on growth performances, meat quality, and breast amino acid profile in chronic cyclic heat-stressed broilers. Day-old male Cobb 500 chicks (n = 720) were randomly assigned, in environmental chambers (n = 12, 24 pens), to three diet-treatments: a three-phase corn-soybean based diet fed as such (Control, C), or supplemented with the herbal adaptogen at 500 g/1000 kg control diet (NR-PHY-500) or at 1 kg/1000 kg control diet (NR-PHY-1000). From d29 to d42, birds from 9 chambers were exposed to cyclic heat stress (HS, 35°C from 9:30 am-5:30 pm), however, the rest of the chamber were maintained at thermoneutral conditions (24°C, TN), which creates 4 experimental groups: C-TN, C-HS, NR-PHY-500HS, and NR-PHY-1000HS (6 pens/group, 168 birds/group). HS altered growth performance via depression of feed intake and body weight. Adaptogen supplementation stimulated feed intake and averaged 65.95 and 83.25 g better body weight and 5 and 10 points better FCR at low and high dose, respectively, compared to heat-stressed birds. This increase in body weight was mirrored in enhanced weights of body parts (breast, tender, wings, and legs). Adaptogen supplementation modulated also breast amino acid profile, pH, color, and quality. Together, these data suggested that adaptogen supplementation could be a promising solution to alleviate heat stress, however further in-depth investigation for its mode of action and its underlying mechanisms are warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth S. Greene
- Center of Excellence for Poultry Science, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, United States
| | - Clay Maynard
- Center of Excellence for Poultry Science, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, United States
| | - Casey M. Owens
- Center of Excellence for Poultry Science, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, United States
| | - Jean-François Meullenet
- Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station, University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, Fayetteville, AR, United States
| | - Sami Dridi
- Center of Excellence for Poultry Science, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, United States
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12
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Krummenauer L, Costa L, Prahl BF, Kropp JP. Future heat adaptation and exposure among urban populations and why a prospering economy alone won't save us. Sci Rep 2021; 11:20309. [PMID: 34645902 PMCID: PMC8514539 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-99757-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2021] [Accepted: 09/28/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
When inferring on the magnitude of future heat-related mortality due to climate change, human adaptation to heat should be accounted for. We model long-term changes in minimum mortality temperatures (MMT), a well-established metric denoting the lowest risk of heat-related mortality, as a function of climate change and socio-economic progress across 3820 cities. Depending on the combination of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways evaluated, by 2100 the risk to human health is expected to decline in 60% to 80% of the cities against contemporary conditions. This is caused by an average global increase in MMTs driven by long-term human acclimatisation to future climatic conditions and economic development of countries. While our adaptation model suggests that negative effects on health from global warming can broadly be kept in check, the trade-offs are highly contingent to the scenario path and location-specific. For high-forcing climate scenarios (e.g. RCP8.5) the maintenance of uninterrupted high economic growth by 2100 is a hard requirement to increase MMTs and level-off the negative health effects from additional scenario-driven heat exposure. Choosing a 2 °C-compatible climate trajectory alleviates the dependence on fast growth, leaving room for a sustainable economy, and leads to higher reductions of mortality risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Linda Krummenauer
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD2 Climate Resilience, Potsdam, 14412, Germany. .,Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14476, Germany.
| | - Luís Costa
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD2 Climate Resilience, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Boris F Prahl
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD2 Climate Resilience, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Jürgen P Kropp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD2 Climate Resilience, Potsdam, 14412, Germany.,Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, 14476, Germany
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13
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Iyakaremye V, Zeng G, Yang X, Zhang G, Ullah I, Gahigi A, Vuguziga F, Asfaw TG, Ayugi B. Increased high-temperature extremes and associated population exposure in Africa by the mid-21st century. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 790:148162. [PMID: 34102437 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148162] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2021] [Revised: 05/11/2021] [Accepted: 05/27/2021] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Previous studies warned that heat extremes are likely to intensify and frequently occur in the future due to climate change. Apart from changing climate, the population's size and distribution contribute to the total changes in the population exposed to heat extremes. The present study uses the ensemble mean of global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) and population projection to assess the future changes in high-temperature extremes and exposure to the population by the middle of this century (2041-2060) in Africa compared to the recent climate taken from 1991 to 2010. Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, are used. Changes in population exposure and its contributors are quantified at continental and for various sub-regions. The intensity of high-temperature extremes is anticipated to escalate between 0.25 to 1.8 °C and 0.6 to 4 °C under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, with Sahara and West Southern Africa projected to warm faster than the rest of the regions. On average, warm days' frequency is also expected to upsurge under SSP2-4.5 (26-59%) and SSP5-8.5 (30-69%) relative to the recent climate. By the mid-21st century, continental population exposure is expected to upsurge by ~25% (28%) of the reference period under SSP2-4.5|SSP2 (SSP5-8.5|SSP5). The highest increase in exposure is expected in most parts of West Africa (WAF), followed by East Africa. The projected changes in continental exposure (~353.6 million person-days under SSP2-4.5|SSP2 and ~401.4 million person-days under SSP5-8.5|SSP5) are mainly due to the interaction effect. However, the climate's influence is more than the population, especially for WAF, South-East Africa and East Southern Africa. The study findings are vital for climate change adaptation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vedaste Iyakaremye
- Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Rwanda Meteorology Agency, Nyarugenge KN 96 St, Kigali, Rwanda; African Institute for Mathematical Sciences Next Einstein Initiative (AIMS-NEI), KG590 St, Kigali, Rwanda
| | - Gang Zeng
- Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.
| | - Xiaoye Yang
- Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
| | - Guwei Zhang
- Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
| | - Irfan Ullah
- Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
| | - Aimable Gahigi
- Rwanda Meteorology Agency, Nyarugenge KN 96 St, Kigali, Rwanda
| | - Floribert Vuguziga
- Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Rwanda Meteorology Agency, Nyarugenge KN 96 St, Kigali, Rwanda
| | - Temesgen Gebremariam Asfaw
- Institute of Geophysics Space Science and Astronomy, Addis Ababa University, 1176 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Institute for Climate and Application Research (ICAR)/CICFEM/KLME/ILCEC, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
| | - Brian Ayugi
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; Organization of African Academic Doctors (OAAD), Off Kamiti Road, P.O. Box 25305-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
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14
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Ma F, Yuan X. Impact of climate and population changes on the increasing exposure to summertime compound hot extremes. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 772:145004. [PMID: 33770855 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2020] [Revised: 12/22/2020] [Accepted: 01/03/2021] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Attributing the changes in the population exposure to global compound hot extremes, which combine daytime-nighttime hot extremes with more severe impacts, is essential for climate change adaptation. Based on daily temperature data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and population data, we estimate the changes in population exposure for two future periods under three scenarios of emission and socio-economic development at global and continental scales, and assess the contributions from climate and population changes. We find that the spatial patterns of exposure to compound hot extremes are similar for different periods and scenarios, and regions with high exposure are mainly located over East Asia, South Asia, Europe, and parts of eastern USA and Africa. The exposure shows an increase from baseline (1980-2014) to mid- and late 21st century periods (2021-2055 and 2056-2090) in most regions worldwide. Under the business-as-usual scenario (SSP2-4.5), the global exposure increases by ~19-fold during the late 21st century, and Africa shows the largest increase while Europe shows the smallest. Early (SSP1-2.6) and no (SSP5-8.5) actions of mitigation would relieve and aggravate the increase rate, respectively. For about 78%-87% of the global land areas, the changes in exposure are mainly caused by climate change (accounting for >69%), followed by the interaction effect (accounting for ~29%) that refers to synergistic changes in climate and population. In parts of mid- to high-latitude regions, the exposure is smaller than expected due to opposite effects of climate change and population change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Feng Ma
- School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China
| | - Xing Yuan
- School of Hydrology and Water Resources, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, China.
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15
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Liu Y, Chen J. Future global socioeconomic risk to droughts based on estimates of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in a changing climate. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 751:142159. [PMID: 33181999 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2020] [Revised: 08/31/2020] [Accepted: 08/31/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
A consistent and equitable global drought risk assessment for multiple regions, populations, and economic sectors at the gridded scale under future diverse climate change scenarios has been the subject of scarce research. Climate change is projected to increase the future hazard of drought and cause consequential damages to socioeconomic systems. The risk assessment of drought caused by climate change can be a bridge between impacts and adaptation. To assess the socioeconomic risk to droughts in a base period and two future periods (2016 to 2035 and 2046 to 2065), the projections of five general circulation models and population and gross domestic product (GDP), land cover, and water resources data were used to analyze the socioeconomic risk under three scenarios combining representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The socioeconomic risk was calculated as the product of three determinants: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. The risk of the global population to drought was projected to be highest in 2046 to 2065 under scenario RCP8.5-SSP3, with up to 1.45 × 109 persons affected, a 63% increase compared with the base period. The highest risk to GDP (4.29 × 1013 purchasing power parity $) was possibly in 2046 to 2065 under scenario RCP2.6-SSP1, with the risk increasing 5.64 times compared to the base period. Regions with high socioeconomic risk were primarily concentrated in the East and South Asia, Midwestern Europe, eastern US, and the coastal areas of South America. With climate change, the inequality in future socioeconomic risk to drought among countries is predicted to increase. The ten countries with the highest risks to population and GDP accounted for nearly 70% of the global risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yujie Liu
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS), Beijing 100049, China.
| | - Jie Chen
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS), Beijing 100049, China
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16
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Influence of Urban Scale and Urban Expansion on the Urban Heat Island Effect in Metropolitan Areas: Case Study of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration. REMOTE SENSING 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/rs12213491] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Global large-scale urbanization has a deep impact on climate change and has brought great challenges to sustainable development, especially in urban agglomerations. At present, there is still a lack of research on the quantitative assessment of the relationship between urban scale and urban expansion and the degree of the urban heat island (UHI) effect, as well as a discussion on mitigation and adaptation of the UHI effect from the perspective of planning. This paper analyzes the regional urbanization process, average surface temperature variation characteristics, surface urban heat island (SUHI), which reflects the intensity of UHI, and the relationship between urban expansion, urban scale, and the UHI in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration using multi-source analysis of data from 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. The results show that the UHI effect in the study area was significant. The average surface temperature of central areas was the highest, and decreased from central areas to suburbs in the order of central areas > expanding areas > rural residential areas. From the perspective of spatial distribution, in Beijing, the southern part of the study area, the junction of Tianjin, Langfang, and Cangzhou are areas with intense SUHI. The scale and pace of expansion of urban land in Beijing were more than in other cities, the influencing range of SUHI in Beijing increased obviously, and the SUHI of central areas was most intense. The results indicate that due to the larger urban scale of the BTH urban agglomeration, it will face a greater UHI effect. The UHI effect was also more significant in areas of dense distribution in cities within the urban agglomeration. Based on results and existing research, planning suggestions are proposed for central areas with regard to expanding urban areas and suburbs to alleviate the urban heat island effect and improve the resilience of cities to climate change.
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17
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Projections of heat stress and associated work performance over India in response to global warming. Sci Rep 2020; 10:16675. [PMID: 33028833 PMCID: PMC7542441 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-73245-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/08/2019] [Accepted: 08/12/2020] [Indexed: 12/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Summertime heat stress future projections from multi-model mean of 18 CMIP5 models show unprecedented increasing levels in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios over India. The estimated heat stress is found to have more impact on the coastal areas of India having exposure to more frequent days of extreme caution to danger category along with the increased probability of occurrence. The explicit amount of change in temperature, increase in the duration and intensity of warm days along with the modulation in large scale circulation in future are seemingly connected to the increasing levels of heat stress over India. A decline of 30 to 40% in the work performance is projected over India by the end of the century due to the elevated heat stress levels which pose great challenges to the country policy makers to design the safety mechanisms and to protect people working under continuous extreme hot weather conditions.
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18
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Liu Y, Chen J, Pan T, Liu Y, Zhang Y, Ge Q, Ciais P, Penuelas J. Global Socioeconomic Risk of Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change. EARTH'S FUTURE 2020; 8:e2019EF001331. [PMID: 32999892 PMCID: PMC7507788 DOI: 10.1029/2019ef001331] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2019] [Revised: 05/14/2020] [Accepted: 08/04/2020] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Precipitation extremes are among the most serious consequences of climate change around the world. The observed and projected frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in some regions will greatly influence the social economy. The frequency of extreme precipitation and the population and economic exposure were quantified for a base period (1986-2005) and future periods (2016-2035 and 2046-2065) based on bias corrected projections of daily precipitation from five global climatic models forced with three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and projections of population and gross domestic product (GDP) in the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The RCP8.5-SSP3 scenario produces the highest global population exposure for 2046-2065, with nearly 30% of the global population (2.97 × 109 persons) exposed to precipitation extremes >10 days/a. The RCP2.6-SSP1 scenario produces the highest global GDP exposure for 2046-2065, with a 5.56-fold increase relative to the base period, of up to (2.29 ± 0.20) × 1015 purchasing power parity $-days. Socioeconomic effects are the primary contributor to the exposure changes at the global and continental scales. Population and GDP effects account for 64-77% and 78-91% of the total exposure change, respectively. The inequality of exposure indicates that more attention should be given to Asia and Africa due to their rapid increases in population and GDP. However, due to their dense populations and high GDPs, European countries, that is, Luxembourg, Belgium, and the Netherlands, should also commit to effective adaptation measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yujie Liu
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)BeijingChina
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS)BeijingChina
| | - Jie Chen
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)BeijingChina
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS)BeijingChina
| | - Tao Pan
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)BeijingChina
| | - Yanhua Liu
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)BeijingChina
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS)BeijingChina
| | | | - Quansheng Ge
- Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)BeijingChina
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (UCAS)BeijingChina
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL‐LSCE CEA CNRS UVSQGif‐sur‐YvetteFrance
| | - Josep Penuelas
- CSIC, Global Ecology CREAF‐CSIC‐UABBarcelonaCataloniaSpain
- CREAFBarcelonaCataloniaSpain
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Zhang W, Li Y, Li Z, Wei X, Ren T, Liu J, Zhu Y. Impacts of climate change, population growth, and urbanization on future population exposure to long-term temperature change during the warm season in China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2020; 27:8481-8491. [PMID: 31902079 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-019-07238-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2019] [Accepted: 12/02/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures in the twenty-first century and is likely to intensify population exposure to heat during the warm season and, as a result, increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and deaths. While earlier studies of heat exposure and related health impacts generally focused on the acute effects of short-term exposure indicated by high daily temperature or several days of very hot weather, recent research has suggested that small changes in seasonal average temperature over a long period of time is likely to pose significant health risk as well. Using downscaled climate projections under three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios, high-spatial-resolution population data, and the latest population projections by the United Nations, we aim at projecting future changes in long-term population exposure to summer heat across China in the mid- and late-twenty-first century resulting from global climate change. As the impacts of population growth are often overlooked in projecting future changes in heat exposure, we estimated changes in population-weighted average temperature in the warmest quarter over two future 20-year time periods and compared them with changes in temperature only. Our analysis shows that, nationally, population-weighted average temperature in the warmest quarter is projected to increase by 2.2 °C relative to the current situation in the 2050s and by 2.5 °C in the 2070s, as the result of climate change and population growth. Despite the foreseeable population stabilization in China, changes in population-weighted temperature are projected to be higher than changes in temperature itself for the majority of the 33 provinces (ranging from 0.02 °C to 1.27 °C, or 1% to 126% higher in the 2050s and from 0.02 °C to 1.16 °C, or 1% to 73% higher in the 2070s), with the largest differences mainly occurring in Western China. The impact of urbanization is projected to be relatively insignificant. Our findings provide evidence of possible underestimation of future changes in long-term exposure to summer heat if the effect of population growth is not factored in.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Zhang
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China
| | - Ying Li
- Department of Environmental Health, College of Public Health, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN, 37614, USA.
| | - Zhuang Li
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China
| | - Xin Wei
- Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
| | - Ting Ren
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China
| | - Jie Liu
- Nanyang Meteorological Service of Henan Province, 209 Beijing Road Nanyang, Henan, 473000, China
| | - Yan Zhu
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China
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Devarajan R, Prabhakaran D, Goenka S. Built environment for physical activity-An urban barometer, surveillance, and monitoring. Obes Rev 2020; 21:e12938. [PMID: 31701653 PMCID: PMC6916279 DOI: 10.1111/obr.12938] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/23/2019] [Revised: 08/14/2019] [Accepted: 08/14/2019] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
The Lancet Commission on Obesity (LCO), also known as the "syndemic commission," states that radical changes are required to harness the common drivers of "obesity, undernutrition, and climate change." Urban design, land use, and the built environment are few such drivers. Holding individuals responsible for obesity detracts from the obesogenic built environments. Pedestrian priority and dignity, wide pavements with tree canopies, water fountains with potable water, benches for the elderly at regular intervals, access to open-green spaces within 0.5-km radius and playgrounds in schools are required. Facilities for physical activity at worksite, prioritization of staircases and ramps in building construction, redistribution of land use, and access to quality, adequate capacity, comfortable, and well-networked public transport, which are elderly and differently abled sensitive with universal design are some of the interventions that require urgent implementation and monitoring. An urban barometer consisting of valid relevant indicators aligned to the sustainable development goals (SDGs), UN-Habitat-3 and healthy cities, should be considered a basic human right and ought to be mounted for purposes of surveillance and monitoring. A "Framework Convention on Built Environment and Physical Activity" needs to be taken up by WHO and the UN for uptake and implementation by member countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Raji Devarajan
- Department of Physical Activity and Obesity Prevention, Centre for Chronic Disease ControlNew DelhiIndia
| | - Dorairaj Prabhakaran
- Executive Director, Centre for Chronic Disease ControlNew DelhiIndia
- Centre for Chronic Conditions & Injuries, Public Health Foundation of IndiaGurugramIndia
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, Department of Non‐Communicable Disease EpidemiologyLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK
| | - Shifalika Goenka
- Department of Physical Activity and Obesity Prevention, Centre for Chronic Disease ControlNew DelhiIndia
- Centre for Chronic Conditions & Injuries, Public Health Foundation of IndiaGurugramIndia
- Department of Social and Behavioral SciencesIndian Institute of Public Health‐DelhiGurugramIndia
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Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2018; 15:ijerph15030554. [PMID: 29562727 PMCID: PMC5877099 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15030554] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/11/2018] [Revised: 03/16/2018] [Accepted: 03/17/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new set of alternative futures of societal development that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure—i.e., mainly future population patterns—, neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps—mainly linked to the paucity of available projections—that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs—namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts’ elicitation and correlation analyses—and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods—such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models—show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability—under varying levels of socioeconomic development—and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change.
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Scott AA, Misiani H, Okoth J, Jordan A, Gohlke J, Ouma G, Arrighi J, Zaitchik BF, Jjemba E, Verjee S, Waugh DW. Temperature and heat in informal settlements in Nairobi. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0187300. [PMID: 29107977 PMCID: PMC5673164 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0187300] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2017] [Accepted: 09/06/2017] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Nairobi, Kenya exhibits a wide variety of micro-climates and heterogeneous surfaces. Paved roads and high-rise buildings interspersed with low vegetation typify the central business district, while large neighborhoods of informal settlements or "slums" are characterized by dense, tin housing, little vegetation, and limited access to public utilities and services. To investigate how heat varies within Nairobi, we deployed a high density observation network in 2015/2016 to examine summertime temperature and humidity. We show how temperature, humidity and heat index differ in several informal settlements, including in Kibera, the largest slum neighborhood in Africa, and find that temperature and a thermal comfort index known colloquially as the heat index regularly exceed measurements at the Dagoretti observation station by several degrees Celsius. These temperatures are within the range of temperatures previously associated with mortality increases of several percent in youth and elderly populations in informal settlements. We relate these changes to surface properties such as satellite-derived albedo, vegetation indices, and elevation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna A. Scott
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Herbert Misiani
- IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Jerrim Okoth
- Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Asha Jordan
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Julia Gohlke
- Department of Population Health Sciences, Virginia-Maryland College of Veterinary Medicine, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia, United States of America
| | - Gilbert Ouma
- Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Julie Arrighi
- Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, Netherlands
- American Red Cross, Washington, D.C., United States of America
| | - Ben F. Zaitchik
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Eddie Jjemba
- Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, Netherlands
| | | | - Darryn W. Waugh
- Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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