Use of kidney function end points in kidney transplant trials: a systematic review

Differences and correlations of biochemical index levels in patients with bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder during a stable period

The differences and correlation of biochemical indexes between bipolar disorder (BPD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) in stable stage were analyzed and discussed. Patients diagnosed with BPD and MDD in the Third People's Hospital of Foshan from January 2019 to December 2021 were selected as the research subjects, with 200 cases in each. Fasting serum was collected from patients and then detected regarding TC, TG, high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), aspartate aminotransferase, lactic dehydrogenase, creatine kinase, creatine kinase-MB, urea, creatinine, uric acid, alanine aminotransferase, glucose (GLU), hemoglobin A1c, prolactin, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, homocysteine. The results showed that the mean age and serum LDL, GLU, and HbAc1 levels of the MDD group were significantly higher than those of the BPD group (P < .05), while there was no significant difference in other indexes (P > .05). The prevalence of BPD was significantly negatively correlated with patient age (r = -0.164, P = .020), LDL (r = -0.150, P = .034), GLU (r = -0.140, P = .048), and HbAc1 (r = -0.215, P = .002) (P < .05). There were no significant differences in serum Hcy and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels between the BPD and MDD groups. The age, fasting blood glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, and LDL of BPD patients were negatively correlated with their incidence.

A Volumetric Absorptive Microsampling UPLC-MS/MS Method for Simultaneous Quantification of Tacrolimus, Mycophenolic Acid and Creatinine in Whole Blood of Renal Transplant Recipients

(1) Background: Continuous monitoring of tacrolimus (TAC), mycophenolic acid (MPA), and creatinine (Cre) after renal transplantation is vitally important. In this study, we developed a new method based on volumetric absorptive microsampling (VAMS) combined with Ultra Performance Liquid Chromatography−Tandem Mass Spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) to simultaneously quantify three analytes including TAC, MPA, and Cre in whole blood. (2) Methods: The VAMS-based UPLC-MS/MS assay used a shared extraction and a single injection to simultaneously quantify the included TAC, MPA, and Cre. Development and validation were carried out following the Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency guidelines for the validation of bioanalytical methods. Moreover, clinical validation for the three analytes was performed in both dried blood spot (DBS) and VAMS. Furthermore, a willingness survey was conducted using the system usability scale (SUS) for renal transplant recipients. (3) Results: The assay was successfully validated for all analytes. No interference, carryover, or matrix effects were observed, and extraction recoveries and process efficiencies were >90.00%. Analysis was unaffected by hematocrit (0.20~0.60, L/L) and anticoagulants (EDTA-2K). Dried VAMS samples were stable for 7 days at ambient temperature and stable for at least 1 month at −20 °C. During clinical validation, the measured TAC, corrected MPA, and Cre concentrations of VAMS samples met the analytical standards (95.00%, 88.57%, and 92.50%). When more stringent clinical acceptance criteria were set, the results obtained by VAMS (90.00%, 71.43%, and 85.00%) better than DBS (77.50%, 62.86%, and 70.00%). Compared with DBS, the survey found that renal transplant recipients are more inclined to use VAMS. (4) Conclusions: A robust extraction and UPLC-MS/MS analysis method in VAMS tips was developed and fully validated for the simultaneous quantification of TAC, MPA, and Cre concentrations. This method provides analytical support for the one-sample remote monitoring of both immunosuppressive drug concentrations and renal function in allo-renal recipients. Based on the good consistency between this method and the routine detection of venous blood samples and higher patient satisfaction than DBS, we believe that VAMS sampling can be a better alternative to venous whole-blood sampling.

Interactions Between Donor Age and 12-Month Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate on Allograft and Patient Outcomes After Kidney Transplantation

Reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at 12-months after kidney transplantation is associated with increased risk of allograft loss, but it is uncertain whether donor age and types modify this relationship. Using Australia and New Zealand registry data, multivariable Cox proportional modelling was used to examine the interactive effects between donor age, types and 12-month eGFR on overall allograft loss. We included 11,095 recipients (4,423 received live-donors). Recipients with lowest 12-month eGFR (<30 ml/min/1.73 m²) experienced the greatest risk of allograft loss, with adjusted HR [95% CI) of 2.65 [2.38–2.95] compared to eGFR of 30–60 ml/min/1.73 m²; whereas the adjusted HR for highest eGFR (>60 ml/min/1.73 m²) was 0.67 [0.62–0.74]. The association of 12-month eGFR and allograft loss was modified by donor age (but not donor types) where a higher risk of allograft loss in recipients with lower compared with higher 12-month eGFR being most pronounced in the younger donor age groups (p < 0.01). Recipients with eGFR <30 ml/min/1.73 m² 12-months after transplantation experienced ≥2.5-fold increased risk of overall allograft loss compared to those with eGFR of >60 ml/min/1.73 m², and the magnitude of the increased risk is most marked among recipients with younger donors. Careful deliberation of other factors including donor age when considering eGFR as a surrogate for clinical endpoints is warranted.

A Review of Specific Biomarkers of Chronic Renal Injury and Their Potential Application in Nonclinical Safety Assessment Studies

A host of novel renal biomarkers have been developed over the past few decades which have enhanced monitoring of renal disease and drug-induced kidney injury in both preclinical studies and in humans. Since chronic kidney disease (CKD) and acute kidney injury (AKI) share similar underlying mechanisms and the tubulointerstitial compartment has a functional role in the progression of CKD, urinary biomarkers of AKI may provide predictive information in chronic renal disease. Numerous studies have explored whether the recent AKI biomarkers could improve upon the standard clinical biomarkers, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and urinary albumin to creatinine ratio, for predicting outcomes in CKD patients. This review is an introduction to alternative assays that can be utilized in chronic (>3 months duration) nonclinical safety studies to provide information on renal dysfunction and to demonstrate specific situations where these assays could be utilized in nonclinical drug development. Novel biomarkers such as symmetrical dimethyl arginine, dickkopf homolog 3, and cystatin C predict chronic renal injury in animals, act as surrogates for GFR, and may predict changes in GFR in patients over time, ultimately providing a bridge from preclinical to clinical renal monitoring.

Relationship between decline in estimated or measured glomerular filtration rate and 16-year postrenal transplant outcome

Background

Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline ≥30% over 2 years can substitute for the conventional ‘doubling of serum creatinine’ to predict end-stage renal disease in patients with native kidneys. While chronic kidney disease trajectory is less predictable in transplanted patients, recent data have suggested that similar GFR decline might be an acceptable surrogate for long-term transplant outcome. We sought (i) to confirm the prognostic value of an early GFR decline in kidney transplant recipients and (ii) to determine whether using direct measurement of GFR with inulin improves the performance of this surrogate.

Methods

We retrospectively analysed all recipients transplanted between 1989 and 2000 in our centre, with inulin-measured and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI)-estimated GFR at 1 and 5 years post-transplant, and evaluated the performance [time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) and subdistribution hazard ratio (sdHR) with competing risk model] of GFR change to predict graft failure and all-cause mortality.

Results

Out of 417 kidney transplant recipients, 116 patients had lost their graft and 77 had died 16 years after transplantation. While being significantly associated with graft failure [sdHR = 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.47–3.83)], CKD-EPI-GFR decline ≥30% failed to appropriately predict long-term graft survival (C-statistics of 0.63). Concordance between inulin-GFR and CKD-EPI-GFR to detect similar GFR change was only 53%. Inulin-GFR change was, however, not a better predictor (C-statistics of 0.59). Comparable results were observed for mortality.

Conclusions

Our data suggest that early GFR decline is a poor surrogate for long-term transplant outcome, even when change in GFR is directly measured by a reference method.

Simultaneous glomerular filtration rate determination using inulin, iohexol, and 99mTc-DTPA demonstrates the need for customized measurement protocols

Urinary inulin clearance is considered the gold standard of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) measurement but plasma clearance of less expensive and more accessible tracers is more commonly performed. Many plasma sampling protocols exist but little is known about their accuracy. Here, the study objectives were to compare plasma iohexol and ^99mTc-DTPA GFR with varying sampling strategies to the GFR measured by urinary inulin and to identify protocols with the greatest accuracy according to clinical characteristics. GFR was measured simultaneously using urinary inulin, plasma iohexol, and plasma ^99mTc DTPA clearance. Blood was sampled from 2 to 10 hours after injection. For each method, bias, precision, and accuracy (P30 and mean absolute error) were calculated for the entire cohort and for eGFR-EPI creatinine subgroups (<30, 30-59, and ≥60 ml/min/1.73m²) and the edema stage using urinary inulin clearance as the gold standard. The mean inulin GFR of the 77 participants was 33 ml/min/1.73m². Delay of both the initial and the final samples in plasma iohexol protocols yielded the highest accuracy in the setting of low GFR (<30 ml/min/1.73m²). Early initial and final samples yielded the highest accuracy in the setting of high GFRs (≥60 ml/min/1.73m²). No sampling strategy was accurate in edematous patients. Thus, our study demonstrates that customization of GFR protocols according to the anticipated level of GFR are required to optimize protocol accuracy.

Comparison of the new and traditional CKD-EPI GFR estimation equations with urinary inulin clearance: A study of equation performance

BACKGROUND

Diagnosis, prognostication and treatment in chronic kidney disease is often informed by an estimate of the glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Commonly used GFR estimation (eGFR) equations are based on serum creatinine (Cr) concentrations and display suboptimal precision and accuracy. Newer equations incorporating additional endogenous markers such as β-Trace Protein (BTP), β₂-Microglobulin (B2M) and cystatin C (cysC) have been developed but require validation.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study evaluated the performance of 6 eGFR equations developed by the chronic kidney disease - epidemiology collaboration group (CKD-EPI) against urinary inulin clearance GFR in patients recruited from outpatient nephrology clinics.

RESULTS

Mean biases were negligible and similar between equations. The eGFR-EPI Cr/cysC had the best precision and accuracy of all the equations and the best agreement with inulin mGFR when classifying participants into GFR categories. The BTP and B2M equations displayed the worst precisions and accuracies and showed the least consistent performance across levels of GFR. Thus, the eGFR-EPI Cr/cysC is the least biased, most precise and has the highest accuracy as compared to other eGFR-EPI equations.

CONCLUSIONS

The BTP and B2M equations are the worst performing of the eGFR-EPI equations, and no benefit is observed with the addition of BTP or B2M to Cr/cysC.

Complement-binding anti-HLA antibodies are independent predictors of response to treatment in kidney recipients with antibody-mediated rejection

A major hurdle to improving clinical care in the field of kidney transplantation is the lack of biomarkers of the response to antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) treatment. To discover these we investigated the value of complement-binding donor-specific anti-HLA antibodies (DSAs) for evaluating the response to treatment. The study encompassed a prospective cohort of 139 kidney recipients with ABMR receiving the standard of care treatment, including plasma exchange, intravenous immunoglobulin and rituximab. Patients were systematically assessed at the time of diagnosis and three months after treatment initiation for clinical and allograft histological characteristics and anti-HLA DSAs, including their C1q-binding ability. After adjusting for clinical and histological parameters, post-treatment C1q-binding anti-HLA DSA was an independent and significant determinant of allograft loss (adjusted hazard ratio 2.57 (95% confidence interval 1.29-5.12). In 101 patients without post-treatment C1q-binding anti-HLA DSA there was a significantly improved glomerular filtration rate with significantly reduced glomerulitis, peritubular capillaritis, interstitial inflammation, tubulitis, C4d deposition, and endarteritis compared with 38 patients with posttreatment C1q-binding anti-HLA DSA. A conditional inference tree model identified five prognostic groups at the time of post-treatment evaluation based on glomerular filtration rate, presence of cg lesion and C1q-binding anti-HLA DSA (cross-validated accuracy: 0.77). Thus, circulating complement-binding anti-HLA DSAs are strong and independent predictors of allograft outcome after standard of care treatment in kidney recipients with ABMR.

Factors that Influence Graft Function at 1-Year Posttransplantation and Correlation with Baseline Donated Kidney Function Measured with Radioisotopes

Introduction. Assessment of renal function is a crucial component of donor evaluation. The higher measured donor GFR is independently associated with a better allograft outcomes in living donor kidney transplantation (LDKT). Monitoring graft function and estimation of GFR is a recommended method for patients’ follow-up in posttransplantation period. The aim of our study was to investigate the correlation of directly measured GFR of donated kidney with estimated GFR through creatininebased formulas and to detect impact factors on the graft function at 12 months posttransplantation. Methods. Fifty LDKT patients (related and nonrelated donors) with stable renal function in a period of 12 months after transplantation were included in our study. The mean recipient age was 30.7±9.6 years, and donor age 55.45±9.41 years. The mean directly measured donated kidney GFR was 47.61±5.72 ml/min. Graft function was estimated at 3, 6 and 12 months by 3 formulas: Cockcroft- Gault (C-G), MDRD 6 variables and Nankivell. Direct correlation of estimated with measured radiolabeled 99mTc DTPA GFR was performed. Various impact factors such as donor age, dialysis vintage and different calcineurin inhibitors as a part of immunosupression were evaluated. Results. Estimated GFR at 12 months with MDRD, Cockroft Gault, and Nankivell formulas was 72.65±22.6, 94.25±36.42, and 81.78±17.89 ml/min, respectively. The highest estimated GFR was obtained with C-G formula at all three time points. The estimated allograft GFR did not correlate with directly measured GFR of donated kidney. Donor age well correlated with the graft function at 12 months. Allografts from standard criteria donors-SCD (<60 years) had better function than allografts form expanded criteria donors-ECD (>60 years). The highest GFR was estimated with C-G equation (106.08±39.26 ml/min), while GFR estimated with Nankivell was 86.86±15.30 ml/min, and with MDRD 79.67±20.28 ml/min, presenting patients in stage 2 of chronic kidney disease. Duration of hemodialysis treatment under 24 months showed better graft function estimated by C-G at 12 months (102.23±38.86 ml/min), compared to that above 24 months of HD (77.84±18.11 ml/ min). Different type of calcineurin inhibitors did not influence on the graft function at any time point. Conclusion. Creatinine-based formulas for estimation of the graft function did not correlate with directly measured function of the donated kidney with radiolabeled isotopes, nor between each other. Hence, the monitoring of the graft function should be done by a single formula in the posttransplantation period. Expectedly, a better graft function was observed in young donors (standard criteria) and in patients with shorter hemodialysis treatment.

Standardized Outcomes in Nephrology-Transplantation: A Global Initiative to Develop a Core Outcome Set for Trials in Kidney Transplantation

Background

Although advances in treatment have dramatically improved short-term graft survival and acute rejection in kidney transplant recipients, long-term graft outcomes have not substantially improved. Transplant recipients also have a considerably increased risk of cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and infection, which all contribute to appreciable morbidity and premature mortality. Many trials in kidney transplantation are short-term, frequently use unvalidated surrogate endpoints, outcomes of uncertain relevance to patients and clinicians, and do not consistently measure and report key outcomes like death, graft loss, graft function, and adverse effects of therapy. This diminishes the value of trials in supporting treatment decisions that require individual-level multiple tradeoffs between graft survival and the risk of side effects, adverse events, and mortality. The Standardized Outcomes in Nephrology-Transplantation initiative aims to develop a core outcome set for trials in kidney transplantation that is based on the shared priorities of all stakeholders.

Methods

This will include a systematic review to identify outcomes reported in randomized trials, a Delphi survey with an international multistakeholder panel (patients, caregivers, clinicians, researchers, policy makers, members from industry) to develop a consensus-based prioritized list of outcome domains and a consensus workshop to review and finalize the core outcome set for trials in kidney transplantation.

Conclusions

Developing and implementing a core outcome set to be reported, at a minimum, in all kidney transplantation trials will improve the transparency, quality, and relevance of research; to enable kidney transplant recipients and their clinicians to make better-informed treatment decisions for improved patient outcomes.

A new method of modelling early plasma creatinine changes predicts 1-year graft function after kidney transplantation

BACKGROUND

Delayed graft function after renal transplantation is associated with inferior long-term outcome. To evaluate the impact of slow onset graft function, we aimed to model and correlate early changes in plasma creatinine (p-cr) with long-term graft function.

MATERIALS

In a single centre observational study of 100 kidney transplants we identified all p-cr measurements from the time of transplantation until 30 days post-transplant or last post-transplant dialysis, and correlated this with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 1 year after transplantation. The initial changes in p-cr were modelled for each patient using an exponential, logistic, or linear model, and the time to a 50% decrease in p-cr (tCr50) was estimated.

RESULTS

Linear regression analysis showed a negative correlation between tCr50 and eGFR 1 year post-transplant (n = 96, r = -0.369, β = -0.112, p = 0.0002). The correlation was maintained when corrected for the relevant recipient and donor characteristics. tCr50 correlated positively with the number of hospitalisation days, the number of graft ultrasound examinations, and the number of biopsies.

CONCLUSIONS

A modelled time to a 50% decrease in p-cr predicts 1-year graft function. tCr50 may be a relevant surrogate endpoint in renal transplant studies aimed at improving long-term function by reducing the incidence of slow onset graft function.

Incidence, etiology, and significance of acute kidney injury in the early post-kidney transplant period

Little is known about the incidence, causes, and significance of acute kidney injury (AKI) in the early transplant period. This study used a definition as >26 μmol/L increase in creatinine within 48 h or >50% increase over a period >48 h. In 326 adult consecutive recipients of a solitary kidney transplant from 2006 to 2014 followed at this center, 21% developed AKI within the first six months. Most etiologies were CNI toxicity (33%) or unknown (26%), whereas acute rejection accounted for 17% and urinary tract obstruction for 10%. Those with AKI had a significantly lower glomerular filtration rate (GFR) at one-yr post-transplant (adjusted beta coefficient -5.5 mL/min/1.73 m(2) , 95% CI: -10.4, -0.7, p = 0.025) in a multivariable linear regression model. However, the AKI definition missed 6 of 19 episodes of acute rejection and 4 of 10 episodes of urinary tract obstruction. When acute rejection (including those that did not satisfy AKI criteria) was included in the model, other causes of AKI were not significantly associated with GFR at year 1. Although AKI, using current criteria, is likely to be a significant predictor of later outcomes, important causes are missed and the criteria are not sensitive for clinical decision-making.

Long-term outcome of belatacept therapy in de novo kidney transplant recipients - a case-match analysis

While belatacept has shown favorable short- and midterm results in kidney transplant recipients, only projections exist regarding its potential impact on long-term outcome. Therefore, we performed a retrospective case-match analysis of the 14 belatacept patients originally enrolled in the phase II multicenter trial at our center. Fifty six cyclosporine (CyA)-treated patients were matched according to age at transplantation, first/retransplant, and donor type. Ten years after kidney transplantation, kidney function remained superior in belatacept-treated patients compared with the CyA control group. Moreover, none of the belatacept-treated patients had donor-specific antibodies ≥10 years post-transplantation compared with 38.5% of tested CyA-treated subject (0/10 vs. 5/13; P = 0.045). Notably, however, patient and graft survival was virtually identical in both groups (71.4% vs. 71.3%; P = 0.976). In the present single-center study population, patients treated with belatacept demonstrated a patient and graft survival at 10 years post-transplant which was comparable to that of similarly selected CNI-treated patients. Larger studies with sufficient statistical power are necessary to definitively determine long-term graft survival with belatacept.

Belatacept for kidney transplant recipients

BACKGROUND

Most people who receive a kidney transplant die from either cardiovascular disease or cancer before their transplant fails. The most common reason for someone with a kidney transplant to lose the function of their transplanted kidney necessitating return to dialysis is chronic kidney transplant scarring. Immunosuppressant drugs have side effects that increase risks of cardiovascular disease, cancer and chronic kidney transplant scarring. Belatacept may provide sufficient immunosuppression while avoiding unwanted side effects of other immunosuppressant drugs. However, high rates of post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease (PTLD) have been reported when belatacept is used in particular kidney transplant recipients at high dosage.

OBJECTIVES

1) Compare the relative efficacy of belatacept versus any other primary immunosuppression regimen for preventing acute rejection, maintaining kidney transplant function, and preventing death. 2) Compare the incidence of several adverse events: PTLD; other malignancies; chronic transplant kidney scarring (IF/TA); infections; change in blood pressure, lipid and blood sugar control. 3) Assess any variation in effects by study, intervention and recipient characteristics, including: differences in pre-transplant Epstein Barr virus serostatus; belatacept dosage; and donor-category (living, standard criteria deceased, or extended criteria deceased).

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Renal Group's Specialised Register to 1 September 2014 through contact with the Trials' Search Co-ordinator using search terms relevant to this review.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCT) that compared belatacept versus any other immunosuppression regimen in kidney transplant recipients were eligible for inclusion.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors independently extracted data for study quality and transplant outcomes and synthesized results using random effects meta-analysis, expressed as risk ratios (RR) and mean differences (MD), both with 95% confidence intervals (CI).  Subgroup analyses and univariate meta-regression were used to investigate potential heterogeneity.

MAIN RESULTS

We included five studies that compared belatacept and calcineurin inhibitors (CNI) that reported data from a total of 1535 kidney transplant recipients. Of the five studies, three (478 participants) compared belatacept and cyclosporin and two (43 recipients) compared belatacept and tacrolimus. Co-interventions included basiliximab (4 studies, 1434 recipients); anti-thymocyte globulin (1 study, 89 recipients); alemtuzumab (1 study, 12 recipients); mycophenolate mofetil (MMF, 5 studies, 1509 recipients); sirolimus (1 study, 26 recipients) and prednisone (5 studies, 1535 recipients).Up to three years following transplant, belatacept and CNI-treated recipients were at similar risk of dying (4 studies, 1516 recipients: RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.39 to 1.44), losing their kidney transplant and returning to dialysis (4 studies, 1516 recipients: RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.38), and having an episode of acute rejection (4 studies, 1516 recipients: RR 1.56, 95% CI 0.85 to 2.86). Belatacept-treated kidney transplant recipients were 28% less likely to have chronic kidney scarring (3 studies, 1360 recipients: RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.94) and also had better graft function (measured glomerular filtration rate (GFR) (3 studies 1083 recipients): 10.89 mL/min/1.73 m², 95% CI 4.01 to 17.77; estimated GFR (4 studies, 1083 recipients): MD 9.96 mL/min/1.73 m², 95% CI 3.28 to 16.64) than CNI-treated recipients. Blood pressure was lower (systolic (2 studies, 658 recipients): MD -7.51 mm Hg, 95% CI -10.57 to -4.46; diastolic (2 studies, 658 recipients): MD -3.07 mm Hg, 95% CI -4.83 to -1.31, lipid profile was better (non-HDL (3 studies 1101 recipients): MD -12.25 mg/dL, 95% CI -17.93 to -6.57; triglycerides (3 studies 1101 recipients): MD -24.09 mg/dL, 95% CI -44.55 to -3.64), and incidence of new-onset diabetes after transplant was reduced by 39% (4 studies (1049 recipients): RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.93) among belatacept-treated versus CNI-treated recipients.Risk of PTLD was similar in belatacept and CNI-treated recipients (4 studies, 1516 recipients: RR 2.79, 95% CI 0.61 to 12.66) and was no different among recipients who received different belatacept dosages (high versus low dosage: ratio of risk ratios (RRR) 1.06, 95% CI 0.11 to 9.80, test of difference = 0.96) or among those who were Epstein Barr virus seronegative compared with those who were seropositive before their kidney transplant (seronegative versus seropositive; RRR 1.49, 95% CI 0.15 to 14.76, test for difference = 0.73).The belatacept dose used (high versus low), type of donor kidney the recipient received (extended versus standard criteria) and whether the kidney transplant recipient received tacrolimus or cyclosporin made no difference to kidney transplant survival, incidence of acute rejection or estimated GFR. Selective outcome reporting meant that data for some key subgroup comparisons were sparse and that estimates of the effect of treatment in these groups of recipients remain imprecise.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is no evidence of any difference in the effectiveness of belatacept and CNI in preventing acute rejection, graft loss and death, but treatment with belatacept is associated with less chronic kidney scarring and better kidney transplant function. Treatment with belatacept is also associated with better blood pressure and lipid profile and a lower incidence of diabetes versus treatment with a CNI. Important side effects (particularly PTLD) remain poorly reported and so the relative benefits and harms of using belatacept remain unclear. Whether short-term advantages of treatment with belatacept are maintained over the medium- to long-term or translate into better cardiovascular outcomes or longer kidney transplant survival with function remains unclear. Longer-term, fully reported and published studies comparing belatacept versus tacrolimus are needed to help clinicians decide which patients might benefit most from using belatacept.

Consistency and completeness of reported outcomes in randomized trials of primary immunosuppression in kidney transplantation

Inconsistent and incomplete outcome reporting may make estimates of treatment effects from published randomized trials unreliable. We aimed to determine outcome reporting practices and source of differences in reporting quality among randomized trials of primary immunosuppression in kidney transplantation. We searched the Cochrane Renal Group's Specialized Register, 2000-2012, specified four core outcomes we expected trials to report, and recorded if and how completely each was reported. We identified 179 trials. One hundred sixty-eight (94%) reported death, 145 (81%) as number dead and 119 (66%) as time to death. One hundred sixty-five (92%) reported graft loss, 158 (88%) as number with graft loss and 127 (71%) as time to graft loss. One hundred twenty-one (68%) reported creatinine and 114 (64%) estimated GFR (eGFR). One hundred forty-one (79%) provided complete reports of number dead, 95 (53%) censored and 99 (55%) uncensored number with graft loss. Seventy-three (41%) provided complete reports of time to death, 67 (37%) censored and 31 (17%) uncensored time to graft loss. Complete reporting of graft function was infrequent: 62 (35%) eGFR and 50 (28%) creatinine. All four outcomes were reported in any form in 61 (34%) and completely in 28 (16%) trials. No single trial or journal characteristic was consistently associated with complete outcome reporting. Outcome reporting in kidney transplant trials is inconsistent and frequently incomplete, and published estimates of treatment effects may be unreliable.

Kidney function endpoints in kidney transplant trials: a struggle for power

Kidney function endpoints are commonly used in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in kidney transplantation (KTx). We conducted this study to estimate the proportion of ongoing RCTs with kidney function endpoints in KTx where the proposed sample size is large enough to detect meaningful differences in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) with adequate statistical power. RCTs were retrieved using the key word "kidney transplantation" from the National Institute of Health online clinical trial registry. Included trials had at least one measure of kidney function tracked for at least 1 month after transplant. We determined the proportion of two-arm parallel trials that had sufficient sample sizes to detect a minimum 5, 7.5 and 10 mL/min difference in GFR between arms. Fifty RCTs met inclusion criteria. Only 7% of the trials were above a sample size of 562, the number needed to detect a minimum 5 mL/min difference between the groups should one exist (assumptions: α = 0.05; power = 80%, 10% loss to follow-up, common standard deviation of 20 mL/min). The result increased modestly to 36% of trials when a minimum 10 mL/min difference was considered. Only a minority of ongoing trials have adequate statistical power to detect between-group differences in kidney function using conventional sample size estimating parameters. For this reason, some potentially effective interventions which ultimately could benefit patients may be abandoned from future assessment.

Rate of renal graft function decline after one year is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality

The slope of GFR associates with an increased risk for death in patients with native CKD but whether a similar association exists in kidney transplantation is not known. We studied an inception cohort of 488 kidney transplant recipients (mean follow-up of 12 ± 4 years) for whom GFR was longitudinally measured by inulin clearance (mGFR) at 1 year and then every 5 years. Association of mGFR at 1 year posttransplant and GFR slope after the first year with all-cause mortality was studied with a Cox regression model and a Fine and Gray competing risk model. While in Crude analysis, the mGFR value at 1 year posttransplant and the rate of mGFR decline were both associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality, only the slope of mGFR remained a significant and strong predictor of death in multivariate analysis. Factors independently associated with a more rapid mGFR decline were feminine gender, higher HLA mismatch, retransplantation, longer duration of transplantation, CMV infection during the first year and higher rate of proteinuria. Our data suggest that the rate of renal graft function decline after 1 year is a strong predictor of all-cause mortality in kidney transplantation.