Metapopulation extinction caused by mutation accumulation

Evolution of dispersal under spatio-temporal heterogeneity

Theoretical studies over the past decades have revealed various factors that favor or disfavor the evolution of dispersal. Among these, environmental heterogeneity is one driving force that can impact dispersal traits, because dispersing individuals can obtain a fitness benefit through finding better environments. Despite this potential benefit, some previous works have shown that the existence of spatial heterogeneity hinders evolution of dispersal. On the other hand, temporal heterogeneity has been shown to promote dispersal through a bet-hedging mechanism. When they are combined in a patch-structured population in which the quality of each patch varies over time independently of the others, it has been shown that spatiotemporal heterogeneity can favor evolution of dispersal. When individuals can use patch quality information so that dispersal decision is conditional, the evolutionary outcome can be different since individuals have options to disperse more/less offspring from bad/good patches. In this paper, we generalize the model and results of previous studies. We find richer dynamics including bistable evolutionary dynamics when there is arrival bias towards high-productivity patches. Then we study the evolution of conditional dispersal strategy in this generalized model. We find a surprising result that no offspring will disperse from a patch whose productivity was low when these offspring were born. In addition to mathematical proofs, we also provide intuition behind this initially counter-intuitive result based on reproductive-value arguments. Dispersal from high-productivity patches can evolve, and its parameter dependence behaves similarly, but not identically, to the case of unconditional dispersal. Our results unveil an importance of whether or not individuals can use patch quality information in dispersal evolution.

The epigenetic basis of evolution

An increasing body of data are revealing key roles of epigenetics in evolutionary processes. The scope of this manuscript is to assemble in a coherent frame experimental evidence supporting a role of epigenetic factors and networks, active during embryogenesis, in orchestrating variation-inducing phenomena underlying evolution, seen as a global process. This process unfolds over two crucial levels: i) a flow of RNA-based information - predominantly small regulatory RNAs released from somatic cells exposed to environmental stimuli - taken up by spermatozoa and delivered to oocytes at fertilization and ii) the highly permissive and variation-prone environments offered by zygotes and totipotent early embryos. Totipotent embryos provide a variety of biological tools favouring the emergence of evolutionarily significant phenotypic novelties driven by RNA information. Under this light, neither random genomic mutations, nor the sieving role of natural selection are required, as the sperm-delivered RNA cargo conveys specific information and acts as "phenotypic-inducer" of defined environmentally acquired traits.

Plasticity's role in adaptive evolution depends on environmental change components

To forecast extinction risks of natural populations under climate change and direct human impacts, an integrative understanding of both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution is essential. To date, the evidence for whether, when, and how much plasticity facilitates adaptive responses in changing environments is contradictory. We argue that explicitly considering three key environmental change components - rate of change, variance, and temporal autocorrelation - affords a unifying framework of the impact of plasticity on adaptive evolution. These environmental components each distinctively effect evolutionary and ecological processes underpinning population viability. Using this framework, we develop expectations regarding the interplay between plasticity and adaptive evolution in natural populations. This framework has the potential to improve predictions of population viability in a changing world.

Population dynamics of Baltic herring since the Viking Age revealed by ancient DNA and genomics

The world's oceans are currently facing major stressors in the form of overexploitation and anthropogenic climate change. The Baltic Sea was home to the first "industrial" fishery ∼800 y ago targeting the Baltic herring, a species that is still economically and culturally important today. Yet, the early origins of marine industries and the long-term ecological consequences of historical and contemporary fisheries remain debated. Here, we study long-term population dynamics of Baltic herring to evaluate the past impacts of humans on the marine environment. We combine modern whole-genome data with ancient DNA (aDNA) to identify the earliest-known long-distance herring trade in the region, illustrating that extensive fish trade began during the Viking Age. We further resolve population structure within the Baltic and observe demographic independence for four local herring stocks over at least 200 generations. It has been suggested that overfishing at Øresund in the 16th century resulted in a demographic shift from autumn-spawning to spring-spawning herring dominance in the Baltic. We show that while the Øresund fishery had a negative impact on the western Baltic herring stock, the demographic shift to spring-spawning dominance did not occur until the 20th century. Instead, demographic reconstructions reveal population trajectories consistent with expected impacts of environmental change and historical reports on shifting fishing targets over time. This study illustrates the joint impact of climate change and human exploitation on marine species as well as the role historical ecology can play in conservation and management policies.

Eco-evolutionary extinction and recolonization dynamics reduce genetic load and increase time to extinction in highly inbred populations

Understanding how genetic and ecological effects can interact to shape genetic loads within and across local populations is key to understanding ongoing persistence of systems that should otherwise be susceptible to extinction through mutational meltdown. Classic theory predicts short persistence times for metapopulations comprising small local populations with low connectivity, due to accumulation of deleterious mutations. Yet, some such systems have persisted over evolutionary time, implying the existence of mechanisms that allow metapopulations to avoid mutational meltdown. We first hypothesize a mechanism by which the combination of stochasticity in the numbers and types of mutations arising locally (genetic stochasticity), resulting local extinction, and recolonization through evolving dispersal facilitates metapopulation persistence. We then test this mechanism using a spatially and genetically explicit individual-based model. We show that genetic stochasticity in highly structured metapopulations can result in local extinctions, which can favor increased dispersal, thus allowing recolonization of empty habitat patches. This causes fluctuations in metapopulation size and transient gene flow, which reduces genetic load and increases metapopulation persistence over evolutionary time. Our suggested mechanism and simulation results provide an explanation for the conundrum presented by the continued persistence of highly structured populations with inbreeding mating systems that occur in diverse taxa.

Challenges in quantifying genome erosion for conservation

Massive defaunation and high extinction rates have become characteristic of the Anthropocene. Genetic effects of population decline can lead populations into an extinction vortex, where declining populations show lower genetic fitness, in turn leading to lower populations still. The lower genetic fitness in a declining population due to a shrinking gene pool is known as genetic erosion. Three different types of genetic erosion are highlighted in this review: overall homozygosity, genetic load and runs of homozygosity (ROH), which are indicative of inbreeding. The ability to quantify genetic erosion could be a very helpful tool for conservationists, as it can provide them with an objective, quantifiable measure to use in the assessment of species at risk of extinction. The link between conservation status and genetic erosion should become more apparent. Currently, no clear correlation can be observed between the current conservation status and genetic erosion. However, the high quantities of genetic erosion in wild populations, especially in those species dealing with habitat fragmentation and habitat decline, may be early signs of deteriorating populations. Whole genome sequencing data is the way forward to quantify genetic erosion. Extra screening steps for genetic load and hybridization can be included, since they could potentially have great impact on population fitness. This way, the information yielded from genetic sequence data can provide conservationists with an objective genetic method in the assessment of species at risk of extinction. However, the great complexity of genome erosion quantification asks for consensus and bridging science and its applications, which remains challenging.

Genetic load and extinction in peripheral populations: the roles of migration, drift and demographic stochasticity

We analyse how migration from a large mainland influences genetic load and population numbers on an island, in a scenario where fitness-affecting variants are unconditionally deleterious, and where numbers decline with increasing load. Our analysis shows that migration can have qualitatively different effects, depending on the total mutation target and fitness effects of deleterious variants. In particular, we find that populations exhibit a genetic Allee effect across a wide range of parameter combinations, when variants are partially recessive, cycling between low-load (large-population) and high-load (sink) states. Increased migration reduces load in the sink state (by increasing heterozygosity) but further inflates load in the large-population state (by hindering purging). We identify various critical parameter thresholds at which one or other stable state collapses, and discuss how these thresholds are influenced by the genetic versus demographic effects of migration. Our analysis is based on a 'semi-deterministic' analysis, which accounts for genetic drift but neglects demographic stochasticity. We also compare against simulations which account for both demographic stochasticity and drift. Our results clarify the importance of gene flow as a key determinant of extinction risk in peripheral populations, even in the absence of ecological gradients. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)'.

The Biology of Chernobyl

Environmental disasters offer the unique opportunity for landscape-scale ecological and evolutionary studies that are not possible in the laboratory or small experimental plots. The nuclear accident at Chernobyl (1986) allows for rigorous analyses of radiation effects on individuals and populations at an ecosystem scale. Here, the current state of knowledge related to populations within the Chernobyl region of Ukraine and Belarus following the largest civil nuclear accident in history is reviewed. There is now a significant literature that provides contrasting and occasionally conflicting views of the state of animals and how they are affected by this mutagenic stressor. Studies of genetic and physiological effects have largely suggested significant injuries to individuals inhabiting the more radioactive areas of the Chernobyl region. Most population censuses for most species suggest that abundances are reduced in the more radioactive areas.

Riverscape genetics in brook lamprey: genetic diversity is less influenced by river fragmentation than by gene flow with the anadromous ecotype

Understanding the effect of human-induced landscape fragmentation on gene flow and evolutionary potential of wild populations has become a major concern. Here, we investigated the effect of riverscape fragmentation on patterns of genetic diversity in the freshwater resident European brook lamprey (Lampetra planeri) that has a low ability to pass obstacles to migration. We tested the hypotheses of (i) asymmetric gene flow following water current and (ii) an effect of gene flow with the closely related anadromous river lamprey (L. fluviatilis) ecotype on L. planeri genetic diversity. We genotyped 2472 individuals, including 225 L. fluviatilis, sampled from 81 sites upstream and downstream barriers to migration, in 29 western European rivers. Linear modelling revealed a strong positive relationship between genetic diversity and the distance from the river source, consistent with expected patterns of decreased gene flow into upstream populations. However, the presence of anthropogenic barriers had a moderate effect on spatial genetic structure. Accordingly, we found evidence for downstream-directed gene flow, supporting the hypothesis that barriers do not limit dispersal mediated by water flow. Downstream L. planeri populations in sympatry with L. fluviatilis displayed consistently higher genetic diversity. We conclude that genetic drift and slight downstream gene flow drive the genetic make-up of upstream L. planeri populations whereas gene flow between ecotypes maintains higher levels of genetic diversity in L. planeri populations sympatric with L. fluviatilis. We discuss the implications of these results for the design of conservation strategies of lamprey, and other freshwater organisms with several ecotypes, in fragmented dendritic river networks.

Rapid morphological change in multiple cichlid ecotypes following the damming of a major clearwater river in Brazil

While anthropogenic disturbances can have damaging effects on biodiversity, they also offer an opportunity to understand how species adapt to new environments and may even provide insights into the earliest stages of evolutionary diversification. With these topics in mind, we explored the morphological changes that have occurred across several cichlid species following the damming of the Tocantins River, Brazil. The Tocantins was once a large (2,450 km), contiguous river system; however, upon closure of the Tucuruí Hydroelectric Dam in 1984, a large (~2,850 km2), permanent reservoir was established. We used geometric morphometrics to evaluate changes in native cichlids, comparing historical museum specimens collected from the Tocantins to contemporary specimens collected from the Tucuruí reservoir. Six species across five genera were included to represent distinct ecomorphs, from large piscivores to relatively small opportunistic omnivores. Notably, statistically significant changes in shape and morphological disparity were observed in all species. Moreover, the documented changes tended to be associated with functionally relevant aspects of anatomy, including head, fin, and body shape. Our data offer insights into the ways cichlids have responded, morphologically, to a novel lake environment and provide a robust foundation for exploring the mechanisms through which these changes have occurred.

The spatial Muller's ratchet: Surfing of deleterious mutations during range expansion

During a range expansion, deleterious mutations can "surf" on the colonization front. The resultant decrease in fitness is known as expansion load. An Allee effect is known to reduce the loss of genetic diversity of expanding populations, by changing the nature of the expansion from "pulled" to "pushed". We study the impact of an Allee effect on the formation of an expansion load with a new model, in which individuals have the genetic structure of a Muller's ratchet. A key feature of Muller's ratchet is that the population fatally accumulates deleterious mutations due to the stochastic loss of the fittest individuals, an event called a click of the ratchet. We observe fast clicks of the ratchet at the colonization front owing to small population size, followed by a slow fitness recovery due to migration of fit individuals from the bulk of the population, leading to a transient expansion load. For large population size, we are able to derive quantitative features of the expansion wave, such as the wave speed and the frequency of individuals carrying a given number of mutations. Using simulations, we show that the presence of an Allee effect reduces the rate at which clicks occur at the front, and thus reduces the expansion load.

Mate availability determines use of alternative reproductive phenotypes in hermaphrodites

In many species, individuals can employ alternative reproductive phenotypes, with profound consequences for individual fitness and population dynamics. This is particularly relevant for self-compatible hermaphrodites, which have exceptionally many reproductive options. Here we investigated the occurrence of reproductive phenotypes in the simultaneously hermaphroditic freshwater snail Radix balthica under experimentally simulated conditions of low versus moderate population density. We captured all mating behavior on camera and measured individual female lifetime reproductive success. We found every possible reproductive phenotype: (1) both male and female (i.e., truly hermaphroditic) reproduction, (2) purely female and (3) purely male reproduction, (4) male reproduction combined with self-fertilization and (5) female mating activity, (6) pure self-fertilization without mating and (7–8) two types of reproductive failure. Variation in alternative reproductive phenotypes was explained by mate availability (10.8%) and individual condition, approximated by a snail’s mean daily growth rate (17.5%). Increased mate availability resulted in a lower diversity of reproductive phenotypes, in particular increasing the frequency of true hermaphrodites. However, it lowered phenotype-specific fecundities and hence reduced the population growth rate. Snails in better condition were more likely to reproduce as true hermaphrodites or pure females, whereas low-condition snails tended to suffer reproductive failure. Overall, we show substantial variation in alternative reproductive phenotypes in a hermaphrodite, which is possibly in part maintained by fluctuations in population density and thus mate availability, and by variation in individual condition. We also provide evidence of an almost 2-fold increase in clutch size that can be ascribed specifically to mating as a female.

Evolutionary tracking is determined by differential selection on demographic rates and density dependence

Recent ecological forecasts predict that ~25% of species worldwide will go extinct by 2050. However, these estimates are primarily based on environmental changes alone and fail to incorporate important biological mechanisms such as genetic adaptation via evolution. Thus, environmental change can affect population dynamics in ways that classical frameworks can neither describe nor predict. Furthermore, often due to a lack of data, forecasting models commonly describe changes in population demography by summarizing changes in fecundity and survival concurrently with the intrinsic growth rate (r). This has been shown to be an oversimplification as the environment may impose selective pressure on specific demographic rates (birth and death) rather than directly on r (the difference between the birth and death rates). This differential pressure may alter population response to density, in each demographic rate, further diluting the information combined to produce r. Thus, when we consider the potential for persistence via adaptive evolution, populations with the same r can have different abilities to persist amidst environmental change. Therefore, we cannot adequately forecast population response to climate change without accounting for demography and selection on density dependence. Using a continuous-time Markov chain model to describe the stochastic dynamics of the logistic model of population growth and allow for trait evolution via mutations arising during birth events, we find persistence via evolutionary tracking more likely when environmental change alters birth rather than the death rate. Furthermore, species that evolve responses to changes in the strength of density dependence due to environmental change are less vulnerable to extinction than species that undergo selection independent of population density. By incorporating these key demographic considerations into our predictive models, we can better understand how species will respond to climate change.

Scaling up the effects of inbreeding depression from individuals to metapopulations

Inbreeding is common in nature, and many laboratory studies have documented that inbreeding depression can reduce the fitness of individuals. Demonstrating the consequences of inbreeding depression on the growth and persistence of populations is more challenging because populations are often regulated by density- or frequency-dependent selection and influenced by demographic and environmental stochasticity. A few empirical studies have shown that inbreeding depression can increase extinction risk of local populations. The importance of inbreeding depression at the metapopulation level has been conjectured based on population-level studies but has not been evaluated. We quantified the impact of inbreeding depression affecting the fitness of individuals on metapopulation persistence in heterogeneous habitat networks of different sizes and habitat configuration in a context of natural butterfly metapopulations. We developed a spatial individual-based simulation model of metapopulations with explicit genetics. We used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit the model to extensive demographic, genetic and life-history data available for the well-studied Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) metapopulations in the Åland islands in SW Finland. We compared 18 semi-independent habitat networks differing in size and fragmentation. The results show that inbreeding is more frequent in small habitat networks, and consequently, inbreeding depression elevates extinction risks in small metapopulations. Metapopulation persistence and neutral genetic diversity maintained in the metapopulations increase with the total habitat amount in and mean patch size of habitat networks. Dispersal and mating behaviour interact with landscape structure to determine how likely it is to encounter kin while looking for mates. Inbreeding depression can decrease the viability of small metapopulations even when they are strongly influenced by stochastic extinction-colonization dynamics and density-dependent selection. The findings from this study support that genetic factors, in addition to demographic factors, can contribute to extinctions of small local populations and also of metapopulations.

Sexual selection in complex communities: Integrating interspecific reproductive interference in structured populations

The social structure of populations plays a key role in shaping variation in sexual selection. In nature, sexual selection occurs in communities of interacting species; however, heterospecifics are rarely included in characterizations of social structure. Heterospecifics can influence the reproductive outcomes of intrasexual competition by interfering with intraspecific sexual interactions (interspecific reproductive interference [IRI]). We outline the need for studies of sexual selection to incorporate heterospecifics as part of the social environment. We use simulations to show that classic predictions for the effect of social structure on sexual selection are altered by an interaction between social structure and IRI. This interaction has wide-ranging implications for patterns of sexual conflict and kin-selected reproductive strategies in socially structured populations. Our work bridges the gap between sexual selection research on social structure and IRI, and highlights future directions to study sexual selection in interacting communities.

Feed-backs among inbreeding, inbreeding depression in sperm traits, and sperm competition can drive evolution of costly polyandry

Ongoing ambitions are to understand the evolution of costly polyandry and its consequences for species ecology and evolution. Emerging patterns could stem from feed-back dynamics between the evolving mating system and its genetic environment, defined by interactions among kin including inbreeding. However, such feed-backs are rarely considered in nonselfing systems. We use a genetically explicit model to demonstrate a mechanism by which inbreeding depression can select for polyandry to mitigate the negative consequences of mating with inbred males, rather than to avoid inbreeding, and to elucidate underlying feed-backs. Specifically, given inbreeding depression in sperm traits, costly polyandry evolved to ensure female fertility, without requiring explicit inbreeding avoidance. Resulting sperm competition caused evolution of sperm traits and further mitigated the negative effect of inbreeding depression on female fertility. The evolving mating system fed back to decrease population-wide homozygosity, and hence inbreeding. However, the net overall decrease was small due to compound effects on the variances in sex-specific reproductive success and paternity skew. Purging of deleterious mutations did not eliminate inbreeding depression in sperm traits or hence selection for polyandry. Overall, our model illustrates that polyandry evolution, both directly and through sperm competition, might facilitate evolutionary rescue for populations experiencing sudden increases in inbreeding.

Genetics of dispersal

Dispersal is a process of central importance for the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of populations and communities, because of its diverse consequences for gene flow and demography. It is subject to evolutionary change, which begs the question, what is the genetic basis of this potentially complex trait? To address this question, we (i) review the empirical literature on the genetic basis of dispersal, (ii) explore how theoretical investigations of the evolution of dispersal have represented the genetics of dispersal, and (iii) discuss how the genetic basis of dispersal influences theoretical predictions of the evolution of dispersal and potential consequences.

Dispersal has a detectable genetic basis in many organisms, from bacteria to plants and animals. Generally, there is evidence for significant genetic variation for dispersal or dispersal‐related phenotypes or evidence for the micro‐evolution of dispersal in natural populations. Dispersal is typically the outcome of several interacting traits, and this complexity is reflected in its genetic architecture: while some genes of moderate to large effect can influence certain aspects of dispersal, dispersal traits are typically polygenic. Correlations among dispersal traits as well as between dispersal traits and other traits under selection are common, and the genetic basis of dispersal can be highly environment‐dependent.

By contrast, models have historically considered a highly simplified genetic architecture of dispersal. It is only recently that models have started to consider multiple loci influencing dispersal, as well as non‐additive effects such as dominance and epistasis, showing that the genetic basis of dispersal can influence evolutionary rates and outcomes, especially under non‐equilibrium conditions. For example, the number of loci controlling dispersal can influence projected rates of dispersal evolution during range shifts and corresponding demographic impacts. Incorporating more realism in the genetic architecture of dispersal is thus necessary to enable models to move beyond the purely theoretical towards making more useful predictions of evolutionary and ecological dynamics under current and future environmental conditions. To inform these advances, empirical studies need to answer outstanding questions concerning whether specific genes underlie dispersal variation, the genetic architecture of context‐dependent dispersal phenotypes and behaviours, and correlations among dispersal and other traits.

Short- and long-term effects of habitat fragmentation differ but are predicted by response to the matrix

Habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Our current understanding of the impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation is based largely on studies that focus on either short-term or long-term responses. Short-term responses are often used to predict long-term responses and make management decisions. The lack of studies comparing short- and long-term responses to fragmentation means we do not adequately understand when and how well short-term responses can be extrapolated to predict long-term responses, and when or why they cannot. To address this gap, we used data from one of the world's longest-running fragmentation experiments, The Wog Wog Habitat Fragmentation Experiment. Using data for carabid beetles, we found that responses in the long term (more than 22 yr post-fragmentation ≈22 generations) often contrasted markedly with those in the short term (5 yr post-fragmentation). The total abundance of all carabids, species richness and the occurrence of six species declined in the short term in the fragments but increased over the long term. The occurrence of three species declined initially and continued to decline, whilst another species was positively affected initially but decreased in the long term. Species' responses to the matrix that surrounds the fragments strongly predicted both the direction (increase/decline in occurrence) and magnitude of their responses to fragmentation. Additionally, species' responses to the matrix were somewhat predicted by their preferences for different types of native habitat (open vs. shaded). Our study highlights the degree of the matrix's influence in fragmented landscapes, and how this influence can change over time. We urge caution in using short-term responses to forecast long-term responses in cases where the matrix (1) impacts species' responses to fragmentation (by isolating them, creating new habitat or altering fragment habitat) and (2) is likely to change through time.

Cryoconite pans on Snowball Earth: supraglacial oases for Cryogenian eukaryotes?

Geochemical, paleomagnetic, and geochronological data increasingly support the Snowball Earth hypothesis for Cryogenian glaciations. Yet, the fossil record reveals no clear-cut evolutionary bottleneck. Climate models and the modern cryobiosphere offer insights on this paradox. Recent modeling implies that Snowball continents never lacked ice-free areas. Wind-blown dust from these areas plus volcanic ash were trapped by snow on ice sheets and sea ice. At a Snowball onset, sea ice was too thin to flow and ablative ice was too cold for dust retention. After a few millenia, sea ice reached 100 s of meters in thickness and began to flow as a 'sea glacier' toward an equatorial ablation zone. At first, dust advected to the ablative surface was recycled by winds, but as the surface warmed with rising CO₂ , dust aka cryoconite began to accumulate. As a sea glacier has no terminus, cryoconite saturated the surface. It absorbed solar radiation, supported cyanobacterial growth, and sank to an equilibrium depth forming holes and decameter-scale pans of meltwater. As meltwater production rose, drainages developed, connecting pans to moulins, where meltwater was flushed into the subglacial ocean. Flushing cleansed the surface, creating a stabilizing feedback. If the dust flux rose, cryoconite was removed; if the dust flux waned, cryoconite accumulated. In addition to cyanobacteria, modern cryoconite holes are inhabited by green algae, fungi, protists, and certain metazoans. On Snowball Earth, cryoconite pans provided stable interconnected habitats for eukaryotes tolerant of fresh to brackish cold water on an ablation surface 60 million km² in area. Flushing and burial of organic matter was a potential source of atmospheric oxygen. Dominance of green algae among Ediacaran eukaryotic primary producers is a possible legacy of Cryogenian cryoconite pans, but a schizohaline ocean-supraglacial freshwater and subglacial brine-may have exerted selective stress on early metazoans, or impeded their evolution.

The Evolution of Male-Biased Dispersal under the Joint Selective Forces of Inbreeding Load and Demographic and Environmental Stochasticity

Sex-biased natal dispersal is widespread, and its significance remains a central question in evolutionary biology. However, theory so far fails to predict some of the most common patterns found in nature. To address this, we present novel results from an individual-based model investigating the joint roles of inbreeding load, demographic stochasticity, environmental stochasticity, and dispersal costs for the evolution of sex-biased dispersal. Most strikingly, we found that male-biased natal dispersal evolved in polygynous systems as a result of the interplay between inbreeding avoidance and stochasticity, whereas previous theory, in contrast to empirical observations, predicted male philopatry and female-biased natal dispersal under inbreeding load alone. Furthermore, the direction of the bias varied according to the nature of stochasticity. Our results therefore provide a unification of previous theory, yielding a much better qualitative match with empirical observations of male-biased dispersal in mate defense mating systems.

Are Organisms Adapting to Ionizing Radiation at Chernobyl?

Numerous organisms have shown an ability to survive and reproduce under low-dose ionizing radiation arising from natural background radiation or from nuclear accidents. In a literature review, we found a total of 17 supposed cases of adaptation, mostly based on common garden experiments with organisms only deriving from typically two or three sampling locations. We only found one experimental study showing evidence of improved resistance to radiation. Finally, we examined studies for the presence of hormesis (i.e., superior fitness at low levels of radiation compared with controls and high levels of radiation), but found no evidence to support its existence. We conclude that rigorous experiments based on extensive sampling from multiple sites are required.

Using Bayesian Population Viability Analysis to Define Relevant Conservation Objectives

Adaptive management provides a useful framework for managing natural resources in the face of uncertainty. An important component of adaptive management is identifying clear, measurable conservation objectives that reflect the desired outcomes of stakeholders. A common objective is to have a sustainable population, or metapopulation, but it can be difficult to quantify a threshold above which such a population is likely to persist. We performed a Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis (BMPVA) using a dynamic occupancy model to quantify the characteristics of two wood frog (Lithobates sylvatica) metapopulations resulting in sustainable populations, and we demonstrate how the results could be used to define meaningful objectives that serve as the basis of adaptive management. We explored scenarios involving metapopulations with different numbers of patches (pools) using estimates of breeding occurrence and successful metamorphosis from two study areas to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction and calculate the proportion of vernal pools producing metamorphs. Our results suggest that ≥50 pools are required to ensure long-term persistence with approximately 16% of pools producing metamorphs in stable metapopulations. We demonstrate one way to incorporate the BMPVA results into a utility function that balances the trade-offs between ecological and financial objectives, which can be used in an adaptive management framework to make optimal, transparent decisions. Our approach provides a framework for using a standard method (i.e., PVA) and available information to inform a formal decision process to determine optimal and timely management policies.

An overview of current knowledge concerning the health and environmental consequences of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident

Since 2011, the scientific community has worked to identify the exact transport and deposition patterns of radionuclides released from the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) in Japan. Nevertheless, there still remain many unknowns concerning the health and environmental impacts of these radionuclides. The present paper reviews the current understanding of the FDNPP accident with respect to interactions of the released radionuclides with the environment and impacts on human and non-human biota. Here, we scrutinize existing literature and combine and interpret observations and modeling assessments derived after Fukushima. Finally, we discuss the behavior and applications of radionuclides that might be used as tracers of environmental processes. This review focuses on (137)Cs and (131)I releases derived from Fukushima. Published estimates suggest total release amounts of 12-36.7PBq of (137)Cs and 150-160PBq of (131)I. Maximum estimated human mortality due to the Fukushima nuclear accident is 10,000 (due to all causes) and the maximum estimates for lifetime cancer mortality and morbidity are 1500 and 1800, respectively. Studies of plants and animals in the forests of Fukushima have recorded a range of physiological, developmental, morphological, and behavioral consequences of exposure to radioactivity. Some of the effects observed in the exposed populations include the following: hematological aberrations in Fukushima monkeys; genetic, developmental and morphological aberrations in a butterfly; declines in abundances of birds, butterflies and cicadas; aberrant growth forms in trees; and morphological abnormalities in aphids. These findings are discussed from the perspective of conservation biology.

Mutation accumulation and the formation of range limits

The dynamics of range formation are important for understanding and predicting species distributions. Here, we focus on a process that has thus far been overlooked in the context of range formation; the accumulation of mutation load. We find that mutation accumulation severely reduces the extent of a range across an environmental gradient, especially when dispersal is limited, growth rate is low and mutations are of intermediate deleterious effect. Our results illustrate the important role deleterious mutations can play in range formation. We highlight this as a necessary focus for further work, noting particularly the potentially conflicting effects dispersal may have in reducing mutation load and simultaneously increasing migration load in marginal populations.

Population signatures of large-scale, long-term disjunction and small-scale, short-term habitat fragmentation in an Afromontane forest bird

The Eastern Afromontane cloud forests occur as geographically distinct mountain exclaves. The conditions of these forests range from large to small and from fairly intact to strongly degraded. For this study, we sampled individuals of the forest bird species, the Montane White-eye Zosterops poliogaster from 16 sites and four mountain archipelagos. We analysed 12 polymorphic microsatellites and three phenotypic traits, and calculated Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to project past distributions and predict potential future range shifts under a scenario of climate warming. We found well-supported genetic and morphologic clusters corresponding to the mountain ranges where populations were sampled, with 43% of all alleles being restricted to single mountains. Our data suggest that large-scale and long-term geographic isolation on mountain islands caused genetically and morphologically distinct population clusters in Z. poliogaster. However, major genetic and biometric splits were not correlated to the geographic distances among populations. This heterogeneous pattern can be explained by past climatic shifts, as highlighted by our SDM projections. Anthropogenically fragmented populations showed lower genetic diversity and a lower mean body mass, possibly in response to suboptimal habitat conditions. On the basis of these findings and the results from our SDM analysis we predict further loss of genotypic and phenotypic uniqueness in the wake of climate change, due to the contraction of the species' climatic niche and subsequent decline in population size.

Between migration load and evolutionary rescue: dispersal, adaptation and the response of spatially structured populations to environmental change

The evolutionary potential of populations is mainly determined by population size and available genetic variance. However, the adaptability of spatially structured populations may also be affected by dispersal: positively by spreading beneficial mutations across sub-populations, but negatively by moving locally adapted alleles between demes. We develop an individual-based, two-patch, allelic model to investigate the balance between these opposing effects on a population's evolutionary response to rapid climate change. Individual fitness is controlled by two polygenic traits coding for local adaptation either to the environment or to climate. Under conditions of selection that favour the evolution of a generalist phenotype (i.e. weak divergent selection between patches) dispersal has an overall positive effect on the persistence of the population. However, when selection favours locally adapted specialists, the beneficial effects of dispersal outweigh the associated increase in maladaptation for a narrow range of parameter space only (intermediate selection strength and low linkage among loci), where the spread of beneficial climate alleles is not strongly hampered by selection against non-specialists. Given that local selection across heterogeneous and fragmented landscapes is common, the complex effect of dispersal that we describe will play an important role in determining the evolutionary dynamics of many species under rapidly changing climate.

Horizontal gene transfer can rescue prokaryotes from Muller's ratchet: benefit of DNA from dead cells and population subdivision

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is a major factor in the evolution of prokaryotes. An intriguing question is whether HGT is maintained during evolution of prokaryotes owing to its adaptive value or is a byproduct of selection driven by other factors such as consumption of extracellular DNA (eDNA) as a nutrient. One hypothesis posits that HGT can restore genes inactivated by mutations and thereby prevent stochastic, irreversible deterioration of genomes in finite populations known as Muller’s ratchet. To examine this hypothesis, we developed a population genetic model of prokaryotes undergoing HGT via homologous recombination. Analysis of this model indicates that HGT can prevent the operation of Muller’s ratchet even when the source of transferred genes is eDNA that comes from dead cells and on average carries more deleterious mutations than the DNA of recipient live cells. Moreover, if HGT is sufficiently frequent and eDNA diffusion sufficiently rapid, a subdivided population is shown to be more resistant to Muller’s ratchet than an undivided population of an equal overall size. Thus, to maintain genomic information in the face of Muller’s ratchet, it is more advantageous to partition individuals into multiple subpopulations and let them “cross-reference” each other’s genetic information through HGT than to collect all individuals in one population and thereby maximize the efficacy of natural selection. Taken together, the results suggest that HGT could be an important condition for the long-term maintenance of genomic information in prokaryotes through the prevention of Muller’s ratchet.

Weakened purifying selection leads to elevated mutation load under environmental sex determination

In many gonochoristic taxa, sex is influenced by developmental environment, a system that can lead to temporal fluctuations in offspring sex ratio. Demographic models suggest that only short-lived species with environmental sex determination (ESD) are negatively impacted by sex-ratio fluctuations, yet these models fail to account for the potential mutation load associated with reductions in genetically effective population sizes. In this study, we developed a series of individual-based simulation models that explore the fixation rates of mildly deleterious alleles under different sex-determining systems and examine the impacts of variation in lifespan and offspring sex ratio. Populations with ESD exhibited increases in fixation rates in both short- and long-lived populations, but substantial increases were limited to populations characterized by a combination of high sex-ratio variation and short lifespan. Fixation rates were negatively associated with effective population size, indicating that purifying selection operates less efficiently under ESD relative to genotypic sex determination. Reductions in effective population size could be attributed to both intragenerational forces (unequal sex ratio) and intergenerational forces (variable census population sizes). Levels of temporal sex-ratio variation calculated from wild populations of ESD species were capable of yielding large increases in fixation rates, although this relationship was strongly mediated by lifespan. Our results may help to explain the limited phylogenetic distribution of ESD in short-lived taxa.

The interaction between selection, demography and selfing and how it affects population viability

Population extinction due to the accumulation of deleterious mutations has only been considered to occur at small population sizes, large sexual populations being expected to efficiently purge these mutations. However, little is known about how the mutation load generated by segregating mutations affects population size and, eventually, population extinction. We propose a simple analytical model that takes into account both the demographic and genetic evolution of populations, linking population size, density dependence, the mutation load, and self-fertilisation. Analytical predictions were found to be relatively good predictors of population size and probability of population viability when verified using an explicit individual based stochastic model. We show that initially large populations do not always reach mutation-selection balance and can go extinct due to the accumulation of segregating deleterious mutations. Population survival depends not only on the relative fitness and demographic stochasticity, but also on the interaction between the two. When deleterious mutations are recessive, self-fertilisation affects viability non-monotonically and genomic cold-spots could favour the viability of outcrossing populations.

Individual identification and genetic variation of lions (Panthera leo) from two protected areas in Nigeria

This survey was conducted in two protected areas in Nigeria to genetically identify individual lions and to determine the genetic variation within and between the populations. We used faecal sample DNA, a non-invasive alternative to the risky and laborious task of taking samples directly from the animals, often preceded by catching and immobilization. Data collection in Yankari Game Reserve (YGR) spanned through a period of five years (2008 -2012), whereas data in Kainji Lake National Park (KLNP) was gathered for a period of three years (2009, 2010 and 2012). We identified a minimum of eight individuals (2 males, 3 females, 3 unknown) from YGR and a minimum of ten individuals (7 males, 3 females) from KLNP. The two populations were found to be genetically distinct as shown by the relatively high fixation index (FST  = 0.17) with each population exhibiting signs of inbreeding (YGR FIS  = 0.49, KLNP FIS  = 0.38). The genetic differentiation between the Yankari and Kainji lions is assumed to result from large spatial geographic distance and physical barriers reducing gene flow between these two remaining wild lion populations in Nigeria. To mitigate the probable inbreeding depression in the lion populations within Nigeria it might be important to transfer lions between parks or reserves or to reintroduce lions from the zoos back to the wild.

Estructura genética y germinación de semillas en poblaciones portuguesas de

Cheirolophus uliginosus es una especie amenazada endémica de la costa atlántica de la península ibérica, donde ocupa unas pocas y reducidas localidades. En nuestro estudio, analizamos los patrones de variación de los haplotipos de ADN cloroplástico y el éxito reproductivo —capacidad germinativa— en siete poblaciones portuguesas de diferente tamaño. El éxito reproductivo de Ch. uliginosus se ha examinado en relación con la estructura genética y el tamaño de sus poblaciones. Los resultados indican una variabilidad intrapoblacional muy baja para los marcadores cloroplásticos utilizados. Nuestro estudio muestra una tasa de germinación significativamente reducida en las poblaciones pequeñas (< 50 individuos) respecto a aquellas de tamaño mediano (50-250 individuos) o grande (> 250 individuos). Para explicar este fenómeno, se deben tomar en consideración las limitaciones ecológicas y el aislamiento genético. Por otro lado, en las poblaciones de Ch. uliginosus de mayor tamaño (> 250 individuos) se ha observado una incidencia más acusada de la depredación de semillas antes de su dispersión, lo cual podría estar afectando a su respuesta reproductiva. Finalmente, las poblaciones más pequeñas —que presentan un reducido éxito reproductivo— contienen los haplotipos más distantes evolutivamente y su conservación debería ser, por tanto, prioritaria.

Small effective size limits performance in a novel environment

Understanding what limits or facilitates species' responses to human‐induced habitat change can provide insight for the control of invasive species and the conservation of small populations, as well as an arena for studying adaptation to realistic novel environments. Small effective size of ancestral populations could limit the establishment in, or response to, a novel or altered habitat because of low genetic variation for ecologically important traits, and/or because small populations harbor fixed deleterious mutations. I estimated the fitness of individuals from populations of the endangered plant Hypericum cumulicola, of known census and effective size, transplanted into native scrub habitat and unpaved roadsides, which are a novel habitat for this species. I found a significant positive relationship between estimates of population size and mean fitness, but only in the novel roadside habitat. Fitness was more than 200% greater in the roadside habitat than the scrub, mostly due to increased fecundity. These results combined with previous estimates of heterosis in this species suggest that fixed deleterious mutations could contribute to lower fitness of field transplants from small populations in the novel environment.

Current hypotheses for the evolution of sex and recombination

The evolution of sex is one of the most important and controversial problems in evolutionary biology. Although sex is almost universal in higher animals and plants, its inherent costs have made its maintenance difficult to explain. The most famous of these is the twofold cost of males, which can greatly reduce the fecundity of a sexual population, compared to a population of asexual females. Over the past century, multiple hypotheses, along with experimental evidence to support these, have been put forward to explain widespread costly sex. In this review, we outline some of the most prominent theories, along with the experimental and observational evidence supporting these. Historically, there have been 4 classes of theories: the ability of sex to fix multiple novel advantageous mutants (Fisher-Muller hypothesis); sex as a mechanism to stop the build-up of deleterious mutations in finite populations (Muller's ratchet); recombination creating novel genotypes that can resist infection by parasites (Red Queen hypothesis); and the ability of sex to purge bad genomes if deleterious mutations act synergistically (mutational deterministic hypothesis). Current theoretical and experimental evidence seems to favor the hypothesis that sex breaks down selection interference between new mutants, or it acts as a mechanism to shuffle genotypes in order to repel parasitic invasion. However, there is still a need to collect more data from natural populations and experimental studies, which can be used to test different hypotheses.

Effects of population size and isolation on heterosis, mean fitness, and inbreeding depression in a perennial plant

• In small isolated populations, genetic drift is expected to increase chance fixation of partly recessive, mildly deleterious mutations, reducing mean fitness and inbreeding depression within populations and increasing heterosis in outcrosses between populations. • We estimated relative effective sizes and migration among populations and compared mean fitness, heterosis, and inbreeding depression for eight large and eight small populations of a perennial plant on the basis of fitness of progeny produced by hand pollinations within and between populations. • Migration was limited, and, consistent with expectations for drift, mean fitness was 68% lower in small populations; heterosis was significantly greater for small (mean = 70%, SE = 14) than for large populations (mean = 7%, SE = 27); and inbreeding depression was lower, although not significantly so, in small (mean = -0.29%, SE = 28) than in large (mean = 0.28%, SE = 23) populations. • Genetic drift promotes fixation of deleterious mutations in small populations, which could threaten their persistence. Limited migration will exacerbate drift, but data on migration and effective population sizes in natural populations are scarce. Theory incorporating realistic variation in population size and patterns of migration could better predict genetic threats to small population persistence.

The biology of small, introduced populations, with special reference to biological control

Populations are introduced into novel environments in different contexts, one being the biological control of pests. Despite intense efforts, less than half introduced biological control agents establish. Among the possible approaches to improve biological control, one is to better understand the processes that underpin introductions and contribute to ecological and evolutionary success. In this perspective, we first review the demographic and genetic processes at play in small populations, be they stochastic or deterministic. We discuss the theoretical outcomes of these different processes with respect to individual fitness, population growth rate, and establishment probability. Predicted outcomes differ subtly in some cases, but enough so that the evaluating results of introductions have the potential to reveal which processes play important roles in introduced populations. Second, we attempt to link the theory we have discussed with empirical data from biological control introductions. A main result is that there are few available data, but we nonetheless report on an increasing number of well-designed, theory-driven, experimental approaches. Combining demography and genetics from both theoretical and empirical perspectives highlights novel and exciting avenues for research on the biology of small, introduced populations, and great potential for improving both our understanding and practice of biological control.

The evolution of XY recombination: sexually antagonistic selection versus deleterious mutation load

Recombination arrest between X and Y chromosomes, driven by sexually antagonistic genes, is expected to induce their progressive differentiation. However, in contrast to birds and mammals (which display the predicted pattern), most cold-blooded vertebrates have homomorphic sex chromosomes. Two main hypotheses have been proposed to account for this, namely high turnover rates of sex-determining systems and occasional XY recombination. Using individual-based simulations, we formalize the evolution of XY recombination (here mediated by sex reversal; the "fountain-of-youth" model) under the contrasting forces of sexually antagonistic selection and deleterious mutations. The shift between the domains of elimination and accumulation occurs at much lower selection coefficients for the Y than for the X. In the absence of dosage compensation, mildly deleterious mutations accumulating on the Y depress male fitness, thereby providing incentives for XY recombination. Under our settings, this occurs via "demasculinization" of the Y, allowing recombination in XY (sex-reversed) females. As we also show, this generates a conflict with the X, which coevolves to oppose sex reversal. The resulting rare events of XY sex reversal are enough to purge the Y from its load of deleterious mutations. Our results support the "fountain of youth" as a plausible mechanism to account for the maintenance of sex-chromosome homomorphy.

Determinants of extinction in fragmented plant populations: Crepis sancta (Asteraceae) in urban environments

Local populations are subject to recurrent extinctions, and small populations are particularly prone to extinction. Both demographic (stochasticity and the Allee effect) and genetic factors (drift load and inbreeding depression) potentially affect extinction. In fragmented populations, regular dispersal may boost population sizes (demographic rescue effect) or/and reduce the local inbreeding level and genetic drift (genetic rescue effect), which can affect extinction risks. We studied extinction processes in highly fragmented populations of the common species Crepis sancta (Asteraceae) in urban habitats exhibiting a rapid turnover of patches. A four-year demographic monitoring survey and microsatellite genotyping of individuals allowed us to study the determinants of extinction. We documented a low genetic structure and an absence of inbreeding (estimated by multilocus heterozygosity), which suggest that genetic factors were not a major cause of patch extinction. On the contrary, local population size was the main factor in extinction, whereas connectivity was shown to decrease patch extinction, which we interpreted as a demographic rescue effect that was likely due to better pollination services for reproduction. This coupling of demographic and genetic tools highlighted the importance of dispersal in local patch extinctions of small fragmented populations connected by gene flow.

Find the weakest link. A comparison between demographic, genetic and demo-genetic metapopulation extinction times

Background

While the ultimate causes of most species extinctions are environmental, environmental constraints have various secondary consequences on evolutionary and ecological processes. The roles of demographic, genetic mechanisms and their interactions in limiting the viabilities of species or populations have stirred much debate and remain difficult to evaluate in the absence of demography-genetics conceptual and technical framework. Here, I computed projected times to metapopulation extinction using (1) a model focusing on the effects of species properties, habitat quality, quantity and temporal variability on the time to demographic extinction; (2) a genetic model focusing on the dynamics of the drift and inbreeding loads under the same species and habitat constraints; (3) a demo-genetic model accounting for demographic-genetic processes and feedbacks.

Results

Results indicate that a given population may have a high demographic, but low genetic viability or vice versa; and whether genetic or demographic aspects will be the most limiting to overall viability depends on the constraints faced by the species (e.g., reduction of habitat quantity or quality). As a consequence, depending on metapopulation or species characteristics, incorporating genetic considerations to demographically-based viability assessments may either moderately or severely reduce the persistence time. On the other hand, purely genetically-based estimates of species viability may either underestimate (by neglecting demo-genetic interactions) or overestimate (by neglecting the demographic resilience) true viability.

Conclusion

Unbiased assessments of the viabilities of species may only be obtained by identifying and considering the most limiting processes (i.e., demography or genetics), or, preferentially, by integrating them.

Tandem quadruplication of HMA4 in the zinc (Zn) and cadmium (Cd) hyperaccumulator Noccaea caerulescens

Zinc (Zn) and cadmium (Cd) hyperaccumulation may have evolved twice in the Brassicaceae, in Arabidopsis halleri and in the Noccaea genus. Tandem gene duplication and deregulated expression of the Zn transporter, HMA4, has previously been linked to Zn/Cd hyperaccumulation in A. halleri. Here, we tested the hypothesis that tandem duplication and deregulation of HMA4 expression also occurs in Noccaea.A Noccaea caerulescens genomic library was generated, containing 36,864 fosmid pCC1FOS™ clones with insert sizes ∼20-40 kbp, and screened with a PCR-generated HMA4 genomic probe. Gene copy number within the genome was estimated through DNA fingerprinting and pooled fosmid pyrosequencing. Gene copy numbers within individual clones was determined by PCR analyses with novel locus specific primers. Entire fosmids were then sequenced individually and reads equivalent to 20-fold coverage were assembled to generate complete whole contigs.Four tandem HMA4 repeats were identified in a contiguous sequence of 101,480 bp based on sequence overlap identities. These were flanked by regions syntenous with up and downstream regions of AtHMA4 in Arabidopsis thaliana. Promoter-reporter β-glucuronidase (GUS) fusion analysis of a NcHMA4 in A. thaliana revealed deregulated expression in roots and shoots, analogous to AhHMA4 promoters, but distinct from AtHMA4 expression which localised to the root vascular tissue.This remarkable consistency in tandem duplication and deregulated expression of metal transport genes between N. caerulescens and A. halleri, which last shared a common ancestor >40 mya, provides intriguing evidence that parallel evolutionary pathways may underlie Zn/Cd hyperaccumulation in Brassicaceae.