The distribution of fitness effects caused by single-nucleotide substitutions in an RNA virus

Hill-Robertson interference may bias the inference of fitness effects of new mutations in highly selfing species

The accurate estimation of the distribution of fitness effects (DFE) of new mutations is critical for population genetic inference but remains a challenging task. While various methods have been developed for DFE inference using the site frequency spectrum of putatively neutral and selected sites, their applicability in species with diverse life history traits and complex demographic scenarios is not well understood. Selfing is common among eukaryotic species and can lead to decreased effective recombination rates, increasing the effects of selection at linked sites, including interference between selected alleles. We employ forward simulations to investigate the limitations of current DFE estimation approaches in the presence of selfing and other model violations, such as linkage, departures from semidominance, population structure, and uneven sampling. We find that distortions of the site frequency spectrum due to Hill-Robertson interference in highly selfing populations lead to mis-inference of the deleterious DFE of new mutations. Specifically, when inferring the distribution of selection coefficients, there is an overestimation of nearly neutral and strongly deleterious mutations and an underestimation of mildly deleterious mutations when interference between selected alleles is pervasive. In addition, the presence of cryptic population structure with low rates of migration and uneven sampling across subpopulations leads to the false inference of a deleterious DFE skewed towards effectively neutral/mildly deleterious mutations. Finally, the proportion of adaptive substitutions estimated at high rates of selfing is substantially overestimated. Our observations apply broadly to species and genomic regions with little/no recombination and where interference might be pervasive.

An efficient plasmid-based system for the recovery of recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus encoding foreign glycoproteins

Viral glycoproteins mediate entry into host cells, thereby dictating host range and pathogenesis. In addition, they constitute the principal target of neutralizing antibody responses, making them important antigens in vaccine development. Recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) encoding foreign glycoproteins can provide a convenient and safe surrogate system to interrogate the function, evolution, and antigenicity of viral glycoproteins from viruses that are difficult to manipulate or those requiring high biosafety level containment. However, the production of recombinant VSV can be technically challenging. In this work, we present an efficient and robust plasmid-based system for the production of recombinant VSV encoding foreign glycoproteins. We validate the system using glycoproteins from different viral families, including arenaviruses, coronaviruses, and hantaviruses, as well as highlight their utility for studying the effects of mutations on viral fitness. Overall, the methods described herein can facilitate the study of both native and recombinant VSV encoding foreign glycoproteins and can serve as the basis for the production of VSV-based vaccines.

The distribution of beneficial mutational effects between two sister yeast species poorly explains natural outcomes of vineyard adaptation

Domesticated strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae have adapted to resist copper and sulfite, two chemical stressors commonly used in winemaking. S. paradoxus, has not adapted to these chemicals despite being consistently present in sympatry with S. cerevisiae in vineyards. This contrast represents a case of apparent evolutionary constraints favoring greater adaptive capacity in S. cerevisiae. In this study, we used a comparative mutagenesis approach to test whether S. paradoxus is mutationally constrained with respect to acquiring greater copper and sulfite resistance. For both species, we assayed the rate, effect size, and pleiotropic costs of resistance mutations and sequenced a subset of 150 mutants isolated from our screen. We found that the distributions of mutational effects displayed by the two species were very similar and poorly explained the natural pattern. We also found that chromosome VIII aneuploidy and loss of function mutations in PMA1 confer copper resistance in both species, whereas loss of function mutations in REG1 were only a viable route to copper resistance in S. cerevisiae. We also observed a single de novo duplication of the CUP1 gene in S. paradoxus but none in S. cerevisiae. For sulfite, loss of function mutations in RTS1 and KSP1 confer resistance in both species, but mutations in RTS1 have larger average effects in S. paradoxus. Our results show that even when the distributions of mutational effects are largely similar, species can differ in the adaptive paths available to them. They also demonstrate that assays of the distribution of mutational effects may lack predictive insight concerning adaptive outcomes.

Targeted accurate RNA consensus sequencing (tARC-seq) reveals mechanisms of replication error affecting SARS-CoV-2 divergence

RNA viruses, like SARS-CoV-2, depend on their RNA-dependent RNA polymerases (RdRp) for replication, which is error prone. Monitoring replication errors is crucial for understanding the virus's evolution. Current methods lack the precision to detect rare de novo RNA mutations, particularly in low-input samples such as those from patients. Here we introduce a targeted accurate RNA consensus sequencing method (tARC-seq) to accurately determine the mutation frequency and types in SARS-CoV-2, both in cell culture and clinical samples. Our findings show an average of 2.68 × 10-5 de novo errors per cycle with a C > T bias that cannot be solely attributed to APOBEC editing. We identified hotspots and cold spots throughout the genome, correlating with high or low GC content, and pinpointed transcription regulatory sites as regions more susceptible to errors. tARC-seq captured template switching events including insertions, deletions and complex mutations. These insights shed light on the genetic diversity generation and evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

The distribution of fitness effects during adaptive walks using a simple genetic network

The tempo and mode of adaptation depends on the availability of beneficial alleles. Genetic interactions arising from gene networks can restrict this availability. However, the extent to which networks affect adaptation remains largely unknown. Current models of evolution consider additive genotype-phenotype relationships while often ignoring the contribution of gene interactions to phenotypic variance. In this study, we model a quantitative trait as the product of a simple gene regulatory network, the negative autoregulation motif. Using forward-time genetic simulations, we measure adaptive walks towards a phenotypic optimum in both additive and network models. A key expectation from adaptive walk theory is that the distribution of fitness effects of new beneficial mutations is exponential. We found that both models instead harbored distributions with fewer large-effect beneficial alleles than expected. The network model also had a complex and bimodal distribution of fitness effects among all mutations, with a considerable density at deleterious selection coefficients. This behavior is reminiscent of the cost of complexity, where correlations among traits constrain adaptation. Our results suggest that the interactions emerging from genetic networks can generate complex and multimodal distributions of fitness effects.

Back to the fundamentals: a reply to Basener and Sanford 2018

Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection has haunted theoretical population genetic literature since it was proposed in 1930, leading to numerous interpretations. Most of the confusion stemmed from Fisher's own obscure presentation. By the 1970s, a clearer view of Fisher's theorem had been achieved and it was found that, regardless of its utility or significance, it represents a general theorem of evolutionary biology. Basener and Sanford (J Math Biol 76:1589-1622, 2018) writing in JOMB, however, paint a different picture of the fundamental theorem as one hindered by its assumptions and incomplete due to its failure to explicitly incorporate mutational effects. They argue that Fisher saw his theorem as a "mathematical proof of Darwinian evolution". In this reply, we show that, contrary to Basener and Sanford, Fisher's theorem is a general theorem that applies to any evolving population, and that, far from their assertion that it needed to be expanded, the theorem already implicitly incorporates ancestor-descendant variation. We also show that their numerical simulations produce unrealistic results. Lastly, we argue that Basener and Sanford's motivations were in undermining not merely Fisher's theorem, but the concept of universal common descent itself.

Self-replicating artificial neural networks give rise to universal evolutionary dynamics

In evolutionary models, mutations are exogenously introduced by the modeler, rather than endogenously introduced by the replicator itself. We present a new deep-learning based computational model, the self-replicating artificial neural network (SeRANN). We train it to (i) copy its own genotype, like a biological organism, which introduces endogenous spontaneous mutations; and (ii) simultaneously perform a classification task that determines its fertility. Evolving 1,000 SeRANNs for 6,000 generations, we observed various evolutionary phenomena such as adaptation, clonal interference, epistasis, and evolution of both the mutation rate and the distribution of fitness effects of new mutations. Our results demonstrate that universal evolutionary phenomena can naturally emerge in a self-replicator model when both selection and mutation are implicit and endogenous. We therefore suggest that SeRANN can be applied to explore and test various evolutionary dynamics and hypotheses.

Changing fitness effects of mutations through long-term bacterial evolution

The distribution of fitness effects of new mutations shapes evolution, but it is challenging to observe how it changes as organisms adapt. Using Escherichia coli lineages spanning 50,000 generations of evolution, we quantify the fitness effects of insertion mutations in every gene. Macroscopically, the fraction of deleterious mutations changed little over time whereas the beneficial tail declined sharply, approaching an exponential distribution. Microscopically, changes in individual gene essentiality and deleterious effects often occurred in parallel; altered essentiality is only partly explained by structural variation. The identity and effect sizes of beneficial mutations changed rapidly over time, but many targets of selection remained predictable because of the importance of loss-of-function mutations. Taken together, these results reveal the dynamic-but statistically predictable-nature of mutational fitness effects.

Uncovering Structural Plasticity of Enterovirus A through Deep Insertional and Deletional Scanning

Insertions and deletions (InDels) are essential sources of novelty in protein evolution. In RNA viruses, InDels cause dramatic phenotypic changes contributing to the emergence of viruses with altered immune profiles and host engagement. This work aimed to expand our current understanding of viral evolution and explore the mutational tolerance of RNA viruses to InDels, focusing on Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) as a prototype for Enterovirus A species (EV-A). Using newly described deep InDel scanning approaches, we engineered approximately 45,000 insertions and 6,000 deletions at every site across the viral proteome, quantifying their effects on viral fitness. As a general trend, most InDels were lethal to the virus. However, our screen reproducibly identified a set of InDel-tolerant regions, demonstrating our ability to comprehensively map tolerance to these mutations. Tolerant sites highlighted structurally flexible and mutationally plastic regions of viral proteins that avoid core structural and functional elements. Phylogenetic analysis on EV-A species infecting diverse mammalian hosts revealed that the experimentally-identified hotspots overlapped with sites of InDels across the EV-A species, suggesting structural plasticity at these sites is an important function for InDels in EV speciation. Our work reveals the fitness effects of InDels across EV-A71, identifying regions of evolutionary capacity that require further monitoring, which could guide the development of Enterovirus vaccines.

Puzzles, challenges, and information reservoir of SARS-CoV-2 quasispecies

Upon the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in the human population, it was conjectured that for this coronavirus the dynamic intra-host heterogeneity typical of RNA viruses would be toned down. Nothing of this sort is observed. Here we review the main observations on the complexity and diverse composition of SARS-CoV-2 mutant spectra sampled from infected patients, within the framework of quasispecies dynamics. The analyses suggest that the information provided by myriads of genomic sequences within infected individuals may have a predictive value of the genomic sequences that acquire epidemiological relevance. Possibilities to reconcile the presence of broad mutant spectra in the large RNA coronavirus genome with its encoding a 3' to 5' exonuclease proofreading-repair activity are considered. Indeterminations in the behavior of individual viral genomes provide a benefit for the survival of the ensemble. We propose that this concept falls in the domain of "stochastic thinking," a notion that applies also to cellular processes, as a means for biological systems to face unexpected needs.

Mutation and Selection Induce Correlations between Selection Coefficients and Mutation Rates

AbstractThe joint distribution of selection coefficients and mutation rates is a key determinant of the genetic architecture of molecular adaptation. Three different distributions are of immediate interest: (1) the "nominal" distribution of possible changes, prior to mutation or selection; (2) the "de novo" distribution of realized mutations; and (3) the "fixed" distribution of selectively established mutations. Here, we formally characterize the relationships between these joint distributions under the strong-selection/weak-mutation (SSWM) regime. The de novo distribution is enriched relative to the nominal distribution for the highest rate mutations, and the fixed distribution is further enriched for the most highly beneficial mutations. Whereas mutation rates and selection coefficients are often assumed to be uncorrelated, we show that even with no correlation in the nominal distribution, the resulting de novo and fixed distributions can have correlations with any combination of signs. Nonetheless, we suggest that natural systems with a finite number of beneficial mutations will frequently have the kind of nominal distribution that induces negative correlations in the fixed distribution. We apply our mathematical framework, along with population simulations, to explore joint distributions of selection coefficients and mutation rates from deep mutational scanning and cancer informatics. Finally, we consider the evolutionary implications of these joint distributions together with two additional joint distributions relevant to parallelism and the rate of adaptation.

Optimized quantification of intra-host viral diversity in SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus sequence data

High error rates of viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerases lead to diverse intra-host viral populations during infection. Errors made during replication that are not strongly deleterious to the virus can lead to the generation of minority variants. However, accurate detection of minority variants in viral sequence data is complicated by errors introduced during sample preparation and data analysis. We used synthetic RNA controls and simulated data to test seven variant-calling tools across a range of allele frequencies and simulated coverages. We show that choice of variant caller and use of replicate sequencing have the most significant impact on single-nucleotide variant (SNV) discovery and demonstrate how both allele frequency and coverage thresholds impact both false discovery and false-negative rates. When replicates are not available, using a combination of multiple callers with more stringent cutoffs is recommended. We use these parameters to find minority variants in sequencing data from SARS-CoV-2 clinical specimens and provide guidance for studies of intra-host viral diversity using either single replicate data or data from technical replicates. Our study provides a framework for rigorous assessment of technical factors that impact SNV identification in viral samples and establishes heuristics that will inform and improve future studies of intra-host variation, viral diversity, and viral evolution. IMPORTANCE When viruses replicate inside a host cell, the virus replication machinery makes mistakes. Over time, these mistakes create mutations that result in a diverse population of viruses inside the host. Mutations that are neither lethal to the virus nor strongly beneficial can lead to minority variants that are minor members of the virus population. However, preparing samples for sequencing can also introduce errors that resemble minority variants, resulting in the inclusion of false-positive data if not filtered correctly. In this study, we aimed to determine the best methods for identification and quantification of these minority variants by testing the performance of seven commonly used variant-calling tools. We used simulated and synthetic data to test their performance against a true set of variants and then used these studies to inform variant identification in data from SARS-CoV-2 clinical specimens. Together, analyses of our data provide extensive guidance for future studies of viral diversity and evolution.

The long-term effects of genomic selection: 2. Changes in allele frequencies of causal loci and new mutations

Genetic selection has been applied for many generations in animal, plant, and experimental populations. Selection changes the allelic architecture of traits to create genetic gain. It remains unknown whether the changes in allelic architecture are different for the recently introduced technique of genomic selection compared to traditional selection methods and whether they depend on the genetic architectures of traits. Here, we investigate the allele frequency changes of old and new causal loci under 50 generations of phenotypic, pedigree, and genomic selection, for a trait controlled by either additive, additive and dominance, or additive, dominance, and epistatic effects. Genomic selection resulted in slightly larger and faster changes in allele frequencies of causal loci than pedigree selection. For each locus, allele frequency change per generation was not only influenced by its statistical additive effect but also to a large extent by the linkage phase with other loci and its allele frequency. Selection fixed a large number of loci, and 5 times more unfavorable alleles became fixed with genomic and pedigree selection than with phenotypic selection. For pedigree selection, this was mainly a result of increased genetic drift, while genetic hitchhiking had a larger effect on genomic selection. When epistasis was present, the average allele frequency change was smaller (∼15% lower), and a lower number of loci became fixed for all selection methods. We conclude that for long-term genetic improvement using genomic selection, it is important to consider hitchhiking and to limit the loss of favorable alleles.

Inferring the distributions of fitness effects and proportions of strongly deleterious mutations

The distribution of fitness effects is a key property in evolutionary genetics as it has implications for several evolutionary phenomena including the evolution of sex and mating systems, the rate of adaptive evolution, and the prevalence of deleterious mutations. Despite the distribution of fitness effects being extensively studied, the effects of strongly deleterious mutations are difficult to infer since such mutations are unlikely to be present in a sample of haplotypes, so genetic data may contain very little information about them. Recent work has attempted to correct for this issue by expanding the classic gamma-distributed model to explicitly account for strongly deleterious mutations. Here, we use simulations to investigate one such method, adding a parameter (plth) to capture the proportion of strongly deleterious mutations. We show that plth can improve the model fit when applied to individual species but underestimates the true proportion of strongly deleterious mutations. The parameter can also artificially maximize the likelihood when used to jointly infer a distribution of fitness effects from multiple species. As plth and related parameters are used in current inference algorithms, our results are relevant with respect to avoiding model artifacts and improving future tools for inferring the distribution of fitness effects.

Evolutionary safety of lethal mutagenesis driven by antiviral treatment

Nucleoside analogs are a major class of antiviral drugs. Some act by increasing the viral mutation rate causing lethal mutagenesis of the virus. Their mutagenic capacity, however, may lead to an evolutionary safety concern. We define evolutionary safety as a probabilistic assurance that the treatment will not generate an increased number of mutants. We develop a mathematical framework to estimate the total mutant load produced with and without mutagenic treatment. We predict rates of appearance of such virus mutants as a function of the timing of treatment and the immune competence of patients, employing realistic assumptions about the vulnerability of the viral genome and its potential to generate viable mutants. We focus on the case study of Molnupiravir, which is an FDA-approved treatment against Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19). We estimate that Molnupiravir is narrowly evolutionarily safe, subject to the current estimate of parameters. Evolutionary safety can be improved by restricting treatment with this drug to individuals with a low immunological clearance rate and, in future, by designing treatments that lead to a greater increase in mutation rate. We report a simple mathematical rule to determine the fold increase in mutation rate required to obtain evolutionary safety that is also applicable to other pathogen-treatment combinations.

Evolutionary barriers to horizontal gene transfer in macrophage-associated Salmonella

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is a powerful evolutionary force facilitating bacterial adaptation and emergence of novel phenotypes. Several factors, including environmental ones, are predicted to restrict HGT, but we lack systematic and experimental data supporting these predictions. Here, we address this gap by measuring the relative fitness of 44 genes horizontally transferred from Escherichia coli to Salmonella enterica in infection-relevant environments. We estimated the distribution of fitness effects in each environment and identified that dosage-dependent effects across different environments are a significant barrier to HGT. The majority of genes were found to be deleterious. We also found longer genes had stronger negative fitness consequences than shorter ones, showing that gene length was negatively associated with HGT. Furthermore, fitness effects of transferred genes were found to be environmentally dependent. In summary, a substantial fraction of transferred genes had a significant fitness cost on the recipient, with both gene characteristics and the environment acting as evolutionary barriers to HGT.

Predicting evolutionary outcomes through the probability of accessing sequence variants

Natural selection can only operate on available genetic variation. Thus, determining the probability of accessing different sequence variants from a starting sequence can help predict evolutionary trajectories and outcomes. We define the concept of "variant accessibility" as the probability that a set of genotypes encoding a particular protein function will arise through mutations before subject to natural selection. This probability is shaped by the mutational biases of nucleotides and the structure of the genetic code. Using the influenza A virus as a model, we discuss how a more accessible but less fit variant can emerge as an adaptation rather than a more fit variant. We describe a genotype-accessibility landscape, complementary to the genotype-fitness landscape, that informs the likelihood of a starting sequence reaching different parts of genotype space. The proposed framework lays the foundation for predicting the emergence of adaptive genotypes in evolving systems such as viruses and tumors.

Fit-Seq2.0: An Improved Software for High-Throughput Fitness Measurements Using Pooled Competition Assays

The fitness of a genotype is defined as its lifetime reproductive success, with fitness itself being a composite trait likely dependent on many underlying phenotypes. Measuring fitness is important for understanding how alteration of different cellular components affects a cell's ability to reproduce. Here, we describe an improved approach, implemented in Python, for estimating fitness in high throughput via pooled competition assays.

Mutation rate, selection, and epistasis inferred from RNA virus haplotypes via neural posterior estimation

RNA viruses are particularly notorious for their high levels of genetic diversity, which is generated through the forces of mutation and natural selection. However, disentangling these two forces is a considerable challenge, and this may lead to widely divergent estimates of viral mutation rates, as well as difficulties in inferring the fitness effects of mutations. Here, we develop, test, and apply an approach aimed at inferring the mutation rate and key parameters that govern natural selection, from haplotype sequences covering full-length genomes of an evolving virus population. Our approach employs neural posterior estimation, a computational technique that applies simulation-based inference with neural networks to jointly infer multiple model parameters. We first tested our approach on synthetic data simulated using different mutation rates and selection parameters while accounting for sequencing errors. Reassuringly, the inferred parameter estimates were accurate and unbiased. We then applied our approach to haplotype sequencing data from a serial passaging experiment with the MS2 bacteriophage, a virus that parasites Escherichia coli. We estimated that the mutation rate of this phage is around 0.2 mutations per genome per replication cycle (95% highest density interval: 0.051-0.56). We validated this finding with two different approaches based on single-locus models that gave similar estimates but with much broader posterior distributions. Furthermore, we found evidence for reciprocal sign epistasis between four strongly beneficial mutations that all reside in an RNA stem loop that controls the expression of the viral lysis protein, responsible for lysing host cells and viral egress. We surmise that there is a fine balance between over- and underexpression of lysis that leads to this pattern of epistasis. To recap, we have developed an approach for joint inference of the mutation rate and selection parameters from full haplotype data with sequencing errors and used it to reveal features governing MS2 evolution.

Developing an appropriate evolutionary baseline model for the study of SARS-CoV-2 patient samples

Over the past 3 years, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread through human populations in several waves, resulting in a global health crisis. In response, genomic surveillance efforts have proliferated in the hopes of tracking and anticipating the evolution of this virus, resulting in millions of patient isolates now being available in public databases. Yet, while there is a tremendous focus on identifying newly emerging adaptive viral variants, this quantification is far from trivial. Specifically, multiple co-occurring and interacting evolutionary processes are constantly in operation and must be jointly considered and modeled in order to perform accurate inference. We here outline critical individual components of such an evolutionary baseline model-mutation rates, recombination rates, the distribution of fitness effects, infection dynamics, and compartmentalization-and describe the current state of knowledge pertaining to the related parameters of each in SARS-CoV-2. We close with a series of recommendations for future clinical sampling, model construction, and statistical analysis.

Evolution of genome fragility enables microbial division of labor

Division of labor can evolve when social groups benefit from the functional specialization of its members. Recently, a novel means of coordinating the division of labor was found in the antibiotic-producing bacterium Streptomyces coelicolor, where specialized cells are generated through large-scale genomic re-organization. We investigate how the evolution of a genome architecture enables such mutation-driven division of labor, using a multiscale computational model of bacterial evolution. In this model, bacterial behavior-antibiotic production or replication-is determined by the structure and composition of their genome, which encodes antibiotics, growth-promoting genes, and fragile genomic loci that can induce chromosomal deletions. We find that a genomic organization evolves, which partitions growth-promoting genes and antibiotic-coding genes into distinct parts of the genome, separated by fragile genomic loci. Mutations caused by these fragile sites mostly delete growth-promoting genes, generating sterile, and antibiotic-producing mutants from weakly-producing progenitors, in agreement with experimental observations. This division of labor enhances the competition between colonies by promoting antibiotic diversity. These results show that genomic organization can co-evolve with genomic instabilities to enable reproductive division of labor.

Viral Fitness, Population Complexity, Host Interactions, and Resistance to Antiviral Agents

Fitness of viruses has become a standard parameter to quantify their adaptation to a biological environment. Fitness determinations for RNA viruses (and some highly variable DNA viruses) meet with several uncertainties. Of particular interest are those that arise from mutant spectrum complexity, absence of population equilibrium, and internal interactions among components of a mutant spectrum. Here, concepts, fitness measurements, limitations, and current views on experimental viral fitness landscapes are discussed. The effect of viral fitness on resistance to antiviral agents is covered in some detail since it constitutes a widespread problem in antiviral pharmacology, and a challenge for the design of effective antiviral treatments. Recent evidence with hepatitis C virus suggests the operation of mechanisms of antiviral resistance additional to the standard selection of drug-escape mutants. The possibility that high replicative fitness may be the driver of such alternative mechanisms is considered. New broad-spectrum antiviral designs that target viral fitness may curtail the impact of drug-escape mutants in treatment failures. We consider to what extent fitness-related concepts apply to coronaviruses and how they may affect strategies for COVID-19 prevention and treatment.

Small-Sample Estimation of the Mutational Support and Distribution of SARS-CoV-2

We consider the problem of determining the mutational support and distribution of the SARS-CoV-2 viral genome in the small-sample regime. The mutational support refers to the unknown number of sites that may eventually mutate in the SARS-CoV-2 genome while mutational distribution refers to the distribution of point mutations in the viral genome across a population. The mutational support may be used to assess the virulence of the virus and guide primer selection for real-time RT-PCR testing. Estimating the distribution of mutations in the genome of different subpopulations while accounting for the unseen may also aid in discovering new variants. To estimate the mutational support in the small-sample regime, we use GISAID sequencing data and our state-of-the-art polynomial estimation techniques based on new weighted and regularized Chebyshev approximation methods. For distribution estimation, we adapt the well-known Good-Turing estimator. Our analysis reveals several findings: First, the mutational supports exhibit significant differences in the ORF6 and ORF7a regions (older versus younger patients), ORF1b and ORF10 regions (females versus males) and in almost all ORFs (Asia/Europe/North America). Second, even though the N region of SARS-CoV-2 has a predicted 10% mutational support, mutations fall outside of the primer regions recommended by the CDC.

Expansion of viral genomes with viral protein genome linked copies

Virus protein-linked genome (VPg) proteins are required for replication. VPgs are duplicated in a subset of RNA viruses however their roles are not fully understood and the extent of viral genomes containing VPg copies has not been investigated in detail. Here, we generated a novel bioinformatics approach to identify VPg sequences in viral genomes using hidden Markov models (HMM) based on alignments of dicistrovirus VPg sequences. From metagenomic datasets of dicistrovirus genomes, we identified 717 dicistrovirus genomes containing VPgs ranging from a single copy to 8 tandem copies. The VPgs are classified into nine distinct types based on their sequence and length. The VPg types but not VPg numbers per viral genome followed specific virus clades, thus suggesting VPgs co-evolved with viral genomes. We also identified VPg duplications in aquamavirus and mosavirus genomes. This study greatly expands the number of viral genomes that contain VPg copies and indicates that duplicated viral sequences are more widespread than anticipated.

Conflicting effects of recombination on the evolvability and robustness in neutrally evolving populations

Understanding the benefits and costs of recombination under different scenarios of evolutionary adaptation remains an open problem for theoretical and experimental research. In this study, we focus on finite populations evolving on neutral networks comprising viable and unfit genotypes. We provide a comprehensive overview of the effects of recombination by jointly considering different measures of evolvability and mutational robustness over a broad parameter range, such that many evolutionary regimes are covered. We find that several of these measures vary non-monotonically with the rates of mutation and recombination. Moreover, the presence of unfit genotypes that introduce inhomogeneities in the network of viable states qualitatively alters the effects of recombination. We conclude that conflicting trends induced by recombination can be explained by an emerging trade-off between evolvability on the one hand, and mutational robustness on the other. Finally, we discuss how different implementations of the recombination scheme in theoretical models can affect the observed dependence on recombination rate through a coupling between recombination and genetic drift.

The Role of the Environment in Horizontal Gene Transfer

Gene-by-environment interactions play a crucial role in horizontal gene transfer by affecting how the transferred genes alter host fitness. However, how the environment modulates the fitness effect of transferred genes has not been tested systematically in an experimental study. We adapted a high-throughput technique for obtaining very precise estimates of bacterial fitness, in order to measure the fitness effects of 44 orthologs transferred from Salmonella Typhimurium to Escherichia coli in six physiologically relevant environments. We found that the fitness effects of individual genes were highly dependent on the environment, while the distributions of fitness effects across genes were not, with all tested environments resulting in distributions of same shape and spread. Furthermore, the extent to which the fitness effects of a gene varied between environments depended on the average fitness effect of that gene across all environments, with nearly neutral and nearly lethal genes having more consistent fitness effects across all environments compared to deleterious genes. Put together, our results reveal the unpredictable nature of how environmental conditions impact the fitness effects of each individual gene. At the same time, distributions of fitness effects across environments exhibit consistent features, pointing to the generalizability of factors that shape horizontal gene transfer of orthologous genes.

Eco-evolutionary extinction and recolonization dynamics reduce genetic load and increase time to extinction in highly inbred populations

Understanding how genetic and ecological effects can interact to shape genetic loads within and across local populations is key to understanding ongoing persistence of systems that should otherwise be susceptible to extinction through mutational meltdown. Classic theory predicts short persistence times for metapopulations comprising small local populations with low connectivity, due to accumulation of deleterious mutations. Yet, some such systems have persisted over evolutionary time, implying the existence of mechanisms that allow metapopulations to avoid mutational meltdown. We first hypothesize a mechanism by which the combination of stochasticity in the numbers and types of mutations arising locally (genetic stochasticity), resulting local extinction, and recolonization through evolving dispersal facilitates metapopulation persistence. We then test this mechanism using a spatially and genetically explicit individual-based model. We show that genetic stochasticity in highly structured metapopulations can result in local extinctions, which can favor increased dispersal, thus allowing recolonization of empty habitat patches. This causes fluctuations in metapopulation size and transient gene flow, which reduces genetic load and increases metapopulation persistence over evolutionary time. Our suggested mechanism and simulation results provide an explanation for the conundrum presented by the continued persistence of highly structured populations with inbreeding mating systems that occur in diverse taxa.

Viruses in astrobiology

Viruses are the most abundant biological entities on Earth, and yet, they have not received enough consideration in astrobiology. Viruses are also extraordinarily diverse, which is evident in the types of relationships they establish with their host, their strategies to store and replicate their genetic information and the enormous diversity of genes they contain. A viral population, especially if it corresponds to a virus with an RNA genome, can contain an array of sequence variants that greatly exceeds what is present in most cell populations. The fact that viruses always need cellular resources to multiply means that they establish very close interactions with cells. Although in the short term these relationships may appear to be negative for life, it is evident that they can be beneficial in the long term. Viruses are one of the most powerful selective pressures that exist, accelerating the evolution of defense mechanisms in the cellular world. They can also exchange genetic material with the host during the infection process, providing organisms with capacities that favor the colonization of new ecological niches or confer an advantage over competitors, just to cite a few examples. In addition, viruses have a relevant participation in the biogeochemical cycles of our planet, contributing to the recycling of the matter necessary for the maintenance of life. Therefore, although viruses have traditionally been excluded from the tree of life, the structure of this tree is largely the result of the interactions that have been established throughout the intertwined history of the cellular and the viral worlds. We do not know how other possible biospheres outside our planet could be, but it is clear that viruses play an essential role in the terrestrial one. Therefore, they must be taken into account both to improve our understanding of life that we know, and to understand other possible lives that might exist in the cosmos.

The evolutionary potential of influenza A virus hemagglutinin is highly constrained by epistatic interactions with neuraminidase

Antigenic evolution of the influenza A virus (IAV) hemagglutinin (HA) gene limits efforts to effectively control the spread of the virus in the population. Efforts to understand the mechanisms governing HA antigenic evolution typically examine the HA gene in isolation. This can ignore the importance of balancing HA receptor binding activities with the receptor-destroying activities of the viral neuraminidase (NA) to maintain viral fitness. We hypothesize that the need to maintain functional balance with NA significantly constrains the evolutionary potential of the HA. We use deep mutational scanning and show that variation in NA activity significantly reshapes the HA fitness landscape by modulating the overall mutational robustness of HA. Consistent with this, we observe that different NA backgrounds support the emergence of distinct repertoires of HA escape variants under neutralizing antibody pressure. Our results reveal a critical role for intersegment epistasis in influencing the evolutionary potential of the HA gene.

The High Mutational Sensitivity of ccdA Antitoxin Is Linked to Codon Optimality

Deep mutational scanning studies suggest that synonymous mutations are typically silent and that most exposed, nonactive-site residues are tolerant to mutations. Here, we show that the ccdA antitoxin component of the Escherichia coli ccdAB toxin-antitoxin system is unusually sensitive to mutations when studied in the operonic context. A large fraction (∼80%) of single-codon mutations, including many synonymous mutations in the ccdA gene shows inactive phenotype, but they retain native-like binding affinity towards cognate toxin, CcdB. Therefore, the observed phenotypic effects are largely not due to alterations in protein structure/stability, consistent with a large region of CcdA being intrinsically disordered. E. coli codon preference and strength of ribosome-binding associated with translation of downstream ccdB gene are found to be major contributors of the observed ccdA mutant phenotypes. In select cases, proteomics studies reveal altered ratios of CcdA:CcdB protein levels in vivo, suggesting that the ccdA mutations likely alter relative translation efficiencies of the two genes in the operon. We extend these results by studying single-site synonymous mutations that lead to loss of function phenotypes in the relBE operon upon introduction of rarer codons. Thus, in their operonic context, genes are likely to be more sensitive to both synonymous and nonsynonymous point mutations than inferred previously.

Characterizing viral within-host diversity in fast and non-equilibrium demo-genetic dynamics

High-throughput sequencing has opened the route for a deep assessment of within-host genetic diversity that can be used, e.g., to characterize microbial communities and to infer transmission links in infectious disease outbreaks. The performance of such characterizations and inferences cannot be analytically assessed in general and are often grounded on computer-intensive evaluations. Then, being able to simulate within-host genetic diversity across time under various demo-genetic assumptions is paramount to assess the performance of the approaches of interest. In this context, we built an original model that can be simulated to investigate the temporal evolution of genotypes and their frequencies under various demo-genetic assumptions. The model describes the growth and the mutation of genotypes at the nucleotide resolution conditional on an overall within-host viral kinetics, and can be tuned to generate fast non-equilibrium demo-genetic dynamics. We ran simulations of this model and computed classic diversity indices to characterize the temporal variation of within-host genetic diversity (from high-throughput amplicon sequences) of virus populations under three demographic kinetic models of viral infection. Our results highlight how demographic (viral load) and genetic (mutation, selection, or drift) factors drive variations in within-host diversity during the course of an infection. In particular, we observed a non-monotonic relationship between pathogen population size and genetic diversity, and a reduction of the impact of mutation on diversity when a non-specific host immune response is activated. The large variation in the diversity patterns generated in our simulations suggests that the underlying model provides a flexible basis to produce very diverse demo-genetic scenarios and test, for instance, methods for the inference of transmission links during outbreaks.

Selection in a growing colony biases results of mutation accumulation experiments

Mutations provide the raw material for natural selection to act. Therefore, understanding the variety and relative frequency of different type of mutations is critical to understanding the nature of genetic diversity in a population. Mutation accumulation (MA) experiments have been used in this context to estimate parameters defining mutation rates, distribution of fitness effects (DFE), and spectrum of mutations. MA experiments can be performed with different effective population sizes. In MA experiments with bacteria, a single founder is grown to a size of a colony (~ 108). It is assumed that natural selection plays a minimal role in dictating the dynamics of colony growth. In this work, we simulate colony growth via a mathematical model, and use our model to mimic an MA experiment. We demonstrate that selection ensures that, in an MA experiment, fraction of all mutations that are beneficial is over-represented by a factor of almost two, and that the distribution of fitness effects of beneficial and deleterious mutations are inaccurately captured in an MA experiment. Given this, the estimate of mutation rates from MA experiments is non-trivial. We then perform an MA experiment with 160 lines of E. coli, and show that due to the effect of selection in a growing colony, the size and sector of a colony from which the experiment is propagated impacts the results. Overall, we demonstrate that the results of MA experiments need to be revisited taking into account the action of selection in a growing colony.

Optimized Quantification of Intrahost Viral Diversity in SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza Virus Sequence Data

High error rates of viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerases lead to diverse intra-host viral populations during infection. Errors made during replication that are not strongly deleterious to the virus can lead to the generation of minority variants. However, accurate detection of minority variants in viral sequence data is complicated by errors introduced during sample preparation and data analysis. We used synthetic RNA controls and simulated data to test seven variant calling tools across a range of allele frequencies and simulated coverages. We show that choice of variant caller, and use of replicate sequencing have the most significant impact on single nucleotide variant (SNV) discovery and demonstrate how both allele frequency and coverage thresholds impact both false discovery and false negative rates. We use these parameters to find minority variants in sequencing data from SARS-CoV-2 clinical specimens and provide guidance for studies of intrahost viral diversity using either single replicate data or data from technical replicates. Our study provides a framework for rigorous assessment of technical factors that impact SNV identification in viral samples and establishes heuristics that will inform and improve future studies of intrahost variation, viral diversity, and viral evolution.

IMPORTANCE

When viruses replicate inside a host, the virus replication machinery makes mistakes. Over time, these mistakes create mutations that result in a diverse population of viruses inside the host. Mutations that are neither lethal to the virus, nor strongly beneficial, can lead to minority variants that are minor members of the virus population. However, preparing samples for sequencing can also introduce errors that resemble minority variants, resulting in inclusion of false positive data if not filtered correctly. In this study, we aimed to determine the best methods for identification and quantification of these minority variants by testing the performance of seven commonly used variant calling tools. We used simulated and synthetic data to test their performance against a true set of variants, and then used these studies to inform variant identification in data from clinical SARS-CoV-2 clinical specimens. Together, analyses of our data provide extensive guidance for future studies of viral diversity and evolution.

Gene-influx-driven evolution

Here we analyze the evolutionary process in the presence of continuous influx of genotypes with submaximum fitness from the outside to the given habitat with finite resources. We show that strong influx from the outside allows the low-fitness genotype to win the competition with the higher fitness genotype, and in a finite population, drive the latter to extinction. We analyze a mathematical model of this phenomenon and obtain the conditions for the transition from the high-fitness to the low-fitness genotype caused by the influx of the latter. We calculate the time to extinction of the high-fitness genotype in a finite population with two alleles and find the exact analytical dynamics of extinction for the case of many genes with epistasis. We solve a related quasispecies model for a single peak (random) fitness landscape as well as for a symmetric fitness landscape. In the symmetric landscape, a nonperturbative effect is observed such that even an extremely low influx of the low-fitness genotype drastically changes the steady state fitness distribution. A similar nonperturbative phenomenon is observed for the allele fixation time as well. The identified regime of influx-driven evolution appears to be relevant for a broad class of biological systems and could be central to the evolution of prokaryotes and viruses.

The extinction time under mutational meltdown driven by high mutation rates

Mutational meltdown describes an eco-evolutionary process in which the accumulation of deleterious mutations causes a fitness decline that eventually leads to the extinction of a population. Possible applications of this concept include medical treatment of RNA virus infections based on mutagenic drugs that increase the mutation rate of the pathogen. To determine the usefulness and expected success of such an antiviral treatment, estimates of the expected time to mutational meltdown are necessary. Here, we compute the extinction time of a population under high mutation rates, using both analytical approaches and stochastic simulations. Extinction is the result of three consecutive processes: (a) initial accumulation of deleterious mutations due to the increased mutation pressure; (b) consecutive loss of the fittest haplotype due to Muller's ratchet; (c) rapid population decline toward extinction. We find accurate analytical results for the mean extinction time, which show that the deleterious mutation rate has the strongest effect on the extinction time. We confirm that intermediate-sized deleterious selection coefficients minimize the extinction time. Finally, our simulations show that the variation in extinction time, given a set of parameters, is surprisingly small.

Empirical estimates of the mutation rate for an alphabaculovirus

Mutation rates are of key importance for understanding evolutionary processes and predicting their outcomes. Empirical mutation rate estimates are available for a number of RNA viruses, but few are available for DNA viruses, which tend to have larger genomes. Whilst some viruses have very high mutation rates, lower mutation rates are expected for viruses with large genomes to ensure genome integrity. Alphabaculoviruses are insect viruses with large genomes and often have high levels of polymorphism, suggesting high mutation rates despite evidence of proofreading activity by the replication machinery. Here, we report an empirical estimate of the mutation rate per base per strand copying (s/n/r) of Autographa californica multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (AcMNPV). To avoid biases due to selection, we analyzed mutations that occurred in a stable, non-functional genomic insert after five serial passages in Spodoptera exigua larvae. Our results highlight that viral demography and the stringency of mutation calling affect mutation rate estimates, and that using a population genetic simulation model to make inferences can mitigate the impact of these processes on estimates of mutation rate. We estimated a mutation rate of μ = 1×10⁻⁷ s/n/r when applying the most stringent criteria for mutation calling, and estimates of up to μ = 5×10⁻⁷ s/n/r when relaxing these criteria. The rates at which different classes of mutations accumulate provide good evidence for neutrality of mutations occurring within the inserted region. We therefore present a robust approach for mutation rate estimation for viruses with stable genomes, and strong evidence of a much lower alphabaculovirus mutation rate than supposed based on the high levels of polymorphism observed.

Virus populations can evolve rapidly, driven by the large number of mutations that occur during virus replication. It is challenging to measure mutation rates because selection will affect which mutations are observed: beneficial mutations are overrepresented in virus populations, while deleterious mutations are selected against and therefore underrepresented. Few mutation rates have been estimated for viruses with large DNA genomes, and there are no estimates for any insect virus. Here, we estimate the mutation rate for an alphabaculovirus, a virus that infects caterpillars and has a large, 134 kilobase pair DNA genome. To ensure that selection did not bias our estimate of mutation rate, we studied which mutations occurred in a large artificial region inserted into the virus genome, where mutations did not affect viral fitness. We deep sequenced evolved virus populations, and compared the distribution of observed mutants to predictions from a simulation model to estimate mutation rate. We found evidence for a relatively low mutation rate, of one mutation in every 10 million bases replicated. This estimate is in line with expectations for a DNA virus with self-correcting replication machinery and a large genome.

RNA polymerase inaccuracy underlies SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccine heterogeneity

Both the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its mRNA vaccines depend on RNA polymerases (RNAP)1,2; however, these enzymes are inherently error-prone and can introduce variants into the RNA3. To understand SARS-CoV-2 evolution and vaccine efficacy, it is critical to identify the extent and distribution of errors introduced by the RNAPs involved in each process. Current methods lack the sensitivity and specificity to measure de novo RNA variants in low input samples like viral isolates3. Here, we determine the frequency and nature of RNA errors in both SARS-CoV-2 and its vaccine using a targeted Accurate RNA Consensus sequencing method (tARC-seq). We found that the viral RNA-dependent RNAP (RdRp) makes ~1 error every 10,000 nucleotides - higher than previous estimates4. We also observed that RNA variants are not randomly distributed across the genome but are associated with certain genomic features and genes, such as S (Spike). tARC-seq captured a number of large insertions, deletions and complex mutations that can be modeled through non-programmed RdRp template switching. This template switching feature of RdRp explains many key genetic changes observed during the evolution of different lineages worldwide, including Omicron. Further sequencing of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine revealed an RNA variant frequency of ~1 in 5,000, meaning most of the vaccine transcripts produced in vitro by T7 phage RNAP harbor a variant. These results demonstrate the extraordinary genetic diversity of viral populations and the heterogeneous nature of an mRNA vaccine fueled by RNAP inaccuracy. Along with functional studies and pandemic data, tARC-seq variant spectra can inform models to predict how SARS-CoV-2 may evolve. Finally, our results may help improve future vaccine development and study design as mRNA therapies continue to gain traction.

Sites of vulnerability in HCV E1E2 identified by comprehensive functional screening

The E1 and E2 envelope proteins of hepatitis C virus (HCV) form a heterodimer that drives virus-host membrane fusion. Here, we analyze the role of each amino acid in E1E2 function, expressing 545 individual alanine mutants of E1E2 in human cells, incorporating them into infectious viral pseudoparticles, and testing them against 37 different monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) to ascertain full-length translation, folding, heterodimer assembly, CD81 binding, viral pseudoparticle incorporation, and infectivity. We propose a model describing the role of each critical residue in E1E2 functionality and use it to examine how MAbs neutralize infection by exploiting functionally critical sites of vulnerability on E1E2. Our results suggest that E1E2 is a surprisingly fragile protein complex where even a single alanine mutation at 92% of positions disrupts its function. The amino-acid-level targets identified are highly conserved and functionally critical and can be exploited for improved therapies and vaccines.

Evolution and host adaptability of plant RNA viruses: Research insights on compositional biases

During recent decades, many new emerging or re-emerging RNA viruses have been found in plants through the development of deep-sequencing technology and big data analysis. These findings largely changed our understanding of the origin, evolution and host range of plant RNA viruses. There is evidence that their genetic composition originates from viruses, and host populations play a key role in the evolution and host adaptability of plant RNA viruses. In this mini-review, we describe the state of our understanding of the evolution of plant RNA viruses in view of compositional biases and explore how they adapt to the host. It appears that adenine rich (A-rich) coding sequences, low CpG and UpA dinucleotide frequencies and lower codon usage patterns were found in the vast majority of plant RNA viruses. The codon usage pattern of plant RNA viruses was influenced by both natural selection and mutation pressure, and natural selection mostly from hosts was the dominant factor. The codon adaptation analyses support that plant RNA viruses probably evolved a dynamic balance between codon adaptation and deoptimization to maintain efficient replication cycles in multiple hosts with various codon usage patterns. In the future, additional combinations of computational and experimental analyses of the nucleotide composition and codon usage of plant RNA viruses should be addressed.

Evolution of prudent predation in complex food webs

Prudent predators catch sufficient prey to sustain their populations but not as much as to undermine their populations' survival. The idea that predators evolve to be prudent has been dismissed in the 1970s, but the arguments invoked then are untenable in the light of modern evolution theory. The evolution of prudent predation has repeatedly been demonstrated in two-species predator-prey metacommunity models. However, the vigorous population fluctuations that these models predict are not widely observed. Here we show that in complex model food webs prudent predation evolves as a result of consumer-mediated ('apparent') competitive exclusion of resources, which disadvantages aggressive consumers and does not generate such fluctuations. We make testable predictions for empirical signatures of this mechanism and its outcomes. Then we discuss how these predictions are borne out across freshwater, marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Demonstrating explanatory power of evolved prudent predation well beyond the question of predator-prey coexistence, the predicted signatures explain unexpected declines of invasive alien species, the shape of stock-recruitment relations of fish, and the clearance rates of pelagic consumers across the latitudinal gradient and 15 orders of magnitude in body mass. Specific research to further test this theory is proposed.

Population size mediates the contribution of high-rate and large-benefit mutations to parallel evolution

Mutations with large fitness benefits and mutations occurring at high rates may both cause parallel evolution, but their contribution is predicted to depend on population size. Moreover, high-rate and large-benefit mutations may have different long-term adaptive consequences. We show that small and 100-fold larger bacterial populations evolve resistance to a β-lactam antibiotic by using similar numbers, but different types of mutations. Small populations frequently substitute similar high-rate structural variants and loss-of-function point mutations, including the deletion of a low-activity β-lactamase, and evolve modest resistance levels. Large populations more often use low-rate, large-benefit point mutations affecting the same targets, including mutations activating the β-lactamase and other gain-of-function mutations, leading to much higher resistance levels. Our results demonstrate the separation by clonal interference of mutation classes with divergent adaptive consequences, causing a shift from high-rate to large-benefit mutations with increases in population size.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of intra-host variability in SARS-CoV-2 genomes

During the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, large-scale genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 has been useful in tracking its spread and in identifying variants of concern (VOC). Viral and host factors could contribute to variability within a host that can be captured in next-generation sequencing reads as intra-host single nucleotide variations (iSNVs). Analysing 1347 samples collected till June 2020, we recorded 16 410 iSNV sites throughout the SARS-CoV-2 genome. We found ∼42% of the iSNV sites to be reported as SNVs by 30 September 2020 in consensus sequences submitted to GISAID, which increased to ∼80% by 30th June 2021. Following this, analysis of another set of 1774 samples sequenced in India between November 2020 and May 2021 revealed that majority of the Delta (B.1.617.2) and Kappa (B.1.617.1) lineage-defining variations appeared as iSNVs before getting fixed in the population. Besides, mutations in RdRp as well as RNA-editing by APOBEC and ADAR deaminases seem to contribute to the differential prevalence of iSNVs in hosts. We also observe hyper-variability at functionally critical residues in Spike protein that could alter the antigenicity and may contribute to immune escape. Thus, tracking and functional annotation of iSNVs in ongoing genome surveillance programs could be important for early identification of potential variants of concern and actionable interventions.

Haplotype-based inference of the distribution of fitness effects

Recent genome sequencing studies with large sample sizes in humans have discovered a vast quantity of low-frequency variants, providing an important source of information to analyze how selection is acting on human genetic variation. In order to estimate the strength of natural selection acting on low-frequency variants, we have developed a likelihood-based method that uses the lengths of pairwise identity-by-state between haplotypes carrying low-frequency variants. We show that in some non-equilibrium populations (such as those that have had recent population expansions) it is possible to distinguish between positive or negative selection acting on a set of variants. With our new framework, one can infer a fixed selection intensity acting on a set of variants at a particular frequency, or a distribution of selection coefficients for standing variants and new mutations. We show an application of our method to the UK10K phased haplotype dataset of individuals.

The distribution of mutational effects on fitness in Caenorhabditis elegans inferred from standing genetic variation

The distribution of fitness effects (DFE) for new mutations is one of the most theoretically important but difficult to estimate properties in population genetics. A crucial challenge to inferring the DFE from natural genetic variation is the sensitivity of the site frequency spectrum to factors like population size change, population substructure, genome structure, and nonrandom mating. Although inference methods aim to control for population size changes, the influence of nonrandom mating remains incompletely understood, despite being a common feature of many species. We report the DFE estimated from 326 genomes of Caenorhabditis elegans, a nematode roundworm with a high rate of self-fertilization. We evaluate the robustness of DFE inferences using simulated data that mimics the genomic structure and reproductive life history of C. elegans. Our observations demonstrate how the combined influence of self-fertilization, genome structure, and natural selection on linked sites can conspire to compromise estimates of the DFE from extant polymorphisms with existing methods. These factors together tend to bias inferences toward weakly deleterious mutations, making it challenging to have full confidence in the inferred DFE of new mutations as deduced from standing genetic variation in species like C. elegans. Improved methods for inferring the DFE are needed to appropriately handle strong linked selection and selfing. These results highlight the importance of understanding the combined effects of processes that can bias our interpretations of evolution in natural populations.

In vivo infection dynamics and human adaptive changes of SIVsm-derived viral siblings SIVmac239, SIVB670 and SIVhu in humanized mice as a paralog of HIV-2 genesis

Simian immunodeficiency virus native to sooty mangabeys (SIVsm) is believed to have given rise to HIV-2 through cross-species transmission and evolution in the human. SIVmac239 and SIVB670, pathogenic to macaques, and SIVhu, isolated from an accidental human infection, also have origins in SIVsm. With their common ancestral lineage as that of HIV-2 from the progenitor SIVsm, but with different passage history in different hosts, they provide a unique opportunity to evaluate cross-species transmission to a new host and their adaptation/evolution both in terms of potential genetic and phenotypic changes. Using humanized mice with a transplanted human system, we evaluated in vivo replication kinetics, CD4+ T cell dynamics and genetic adaptive changes during serial passage with a goal to understand their evolution under human selective immune pressure. All the three viruses readily infected hu-mice causing chronic viremia. While SIVmac and SIVB670 caused CD4+ T cell depletion during sequential passaging, SIVhu with a deletion in nef gene was found to be less pathogenic. Deep sequencing of the genomes of these viruses isolated at different times revealed numerous adaptive mutations of significance that increased in frequency during sequential passages. The ability of these viruses to infect and replicate in humanized mice provides a new small animal model to study SIVs in vivo in addition to more expensive macaques. Since SIVmac and related viruses have been indispensable in many areas of HIV pathogenesis, therapeutics and cure research, availability of this small animal hu-mouse model that is susceptible to both SIV and HIV viruses is likely to open novel avenues of investigation for comparative studies using the same host.

A Two-Level, Intramutant Spectrum Haplotype Profile of Hepatitis C Virus Revealed by Self-Organized Maps

RNA viruses replicate as complex mutant spectra termed viral quasispecies. The frequency of each individual genome in a mutant spectrum depends on its rate of generation and its relative fitness in the replicating population ensemble. The advent of deep sequencing methodologies allows for the first-time quantification of haplotype abundances within mutant spectra. There is no information on the haplotype profile of the resident genomes and how the landscape evolves when a virus replicates in a controlled cell culture environment. Here, we report the construction of intramutant spectrum haplotype landscapes of three amplicons of the NS5A-NS5B coding region of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Two-dimensional (2D) neural networks were constructed for 44 related HCV populations derived from a common clonal ancestor that was passaged up to 210 times in human hepatoma Huh-7.5 cells in the absence of external selective pressures. The haplotype profiles consisted of an extended dense basal platform, from which a lower number of protruding higher peaks emerged. As HCV increased its adaptation to the cells, the number of haplotype peaks within each mutant spectrum expanded, and their distribution shifted in the 2D network. The results show that extensive HCV replication in a monotonous cell culture environment does not limit HCV exploration of sequence space through haplotype peak movements. The landscapes reflect dynamic variation in the intramutant spectrum haplotype profile and may serve as a reference to interpret the modifications produced by external selective pressures or to compare with the landscapes of mutant spectra in complex in vivo environments. IMPORTANCE The study provides for the first time the haplotype profile and its variation in the course of virus adaptation to a cell culture environment in the absence of external selective constraints. The deep sequencing-based self-organized maps document a two-layer haplotype distribution with an ample basal platform and a lower number of protruding peaks. The results suggest an inferred intramutant spectrum fitness landscape structure that offers potential benefits for virus resilience to mutational inputs.

Analyses of HIV proteases variants at the threshold of viability reveals relationships between processing efficiency and fitness

Investigating the relationships between protein function and fitness provides keys for understanding biochemical mechanisms that underly evolution. Mutations with partial fitness defects can delineate the threshold of biochemical function required for viability. We utilized a previous deep mutational scan of HIV-1 protease (PR) to identify variants with 15–45 per cent defects in replication and analysed the biochemical function of eight variants (L10M, L10S, V32C, V32I, A71V, A71S, Q92I, Q92N). We purified each variant and assessed the efficiency of peptide cleavage for three cut sites (MA-CA, TF-PR, and PR-RT) as well as gel-based analyses of processing of purified Gag. The cutting activity of at least one site was perturbed relative to WT protease for all variants, consistent with cutting activity being a primary determinant of fitness effects. We examined the correlation of fitness defects with cutting activity of different sites. MA-CA showed the weakest correlation (R² = 0.02) with fitness, suggesting relatively weak coupling with viral replication. In contrast, cutting of the TF-PR site showed the strongest correlation with fitness (R² = 0.53). Cutting at the TF-PR site creates a new PR protein with a free N-terminus that is critical for activity. Our findings indicate that increasing the pool of active PR is rate limiting for viral replication, making this an ideal step to target with inhibitors.

Steering ecological-evolutionary dynamics to improve artificial selection of microbial communities

Microbial communities often perform important functions that depend on inter-species interactions. To improve community function via artificial selection, one can repeatedly grow many communities to allow mutations to arise, and "reproduce" the highest-functioning communities by partitioning each into multiple offspring communities for the next cycle. Since improvement is often unimpressive in experiments, we study how to design effective selection strategies in silico. Specifically, we simulate community selection to improve a function that requires two species. With a "community function landscape", we visualize how community function depends on species and genotype compositions. Due to ecological interactions that promote species coexistence, the evolutionary trajectory of communities is restricted to a path on the landscape. This restriction can generate counter-intuitive evolutionary dynamics, prevent the attainment of maximal function, and importantly, hinder selection by trapping communities in locations of low community function heritability. We devise experimentally-implementable manipulations to shift the path to higher heritability, which speeds up community function improvement even when landscapes are high dimensional or unknown. Video walkthroughs: https://go.nature.com/3GWwS6j ; https://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/ecoevo21/shou2/ .

The seasonal behaviour of COVID-19 and its galectin-like culprit of the viral spike

Seasonal behaviour is an attribute of many viral diseases. Like other 'winter' RNA viruses, infections caused by the causative agent of COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, appear to exhibit significant seasonal changes. Here we discuss the seasonal behaviour of COVID-19, emerging viral phenotypes, viral evolution, and how the mutational landscape of the virus affects the seasonal attributes of the disease. We propose that the multiple seasonal drivers behind infectious disease spread (and the spread of COVID-19 specifically) are in 'trade-off' relationships and can be better described within a framework of a 'triangle of viral persistence' modulated by the environment, physiology, and behaviour. This 'trade-off' exists as one trait cannot increase without a decrease in another. We also propose that molecular components of the virus can act as sensors of environment and physiology, and could represent molecular culprits of seasonality. We searched for flexible protein structures capable of being modulated by the environment and identified a galectin-like fold within the N-terminal domain of the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 as a potential candidate. Tracking the prevalence of mutations in this structure resulted in the identification of a hemisphere-dependent seasonal pattern driven by mutational bursts. We propose that the galectin-like structure is a frequent target of mutations because it helps the virus evade or modulate the physiological responses of the host to further its spread and survival. The flexible regions of the N-terminal domain should now become a focus for mitigation through vaccines and therapeutics and for prediction and informed public health decision making.

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 haplotypes and genomic sequences during 2020 in Victoria, Australia, in the context of putative deficits in innate immune deaminase anti-viral responses

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic infections in Australia during 2020 were small in number in epidemiological terms and are well described. The SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequence data of many infected patients have been largely curated in a number of publicly available databases, including the corresponding epidemiological data made available by the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services. We have critically analysed the available SARS-CoV-2 haplotypes and genomic sequences in the context of putative deficits in innate immune APOBEC and ADAR deaminase anti-viral responses. It is now known that immune impaired elderly co-morbid patients display clear deficits in interferon type 1 (α/β) and III (λ) stimulated innate immune gene cascades, of which APOBEC and ADAR induced expression are part. These deficiencies may help explain some of the clear genetic patterns in SARS-CoV-2 genomes isolated in Victoria, Australia, during the 2nd Wave (June-September, 2020). We tested the hypothesis that predicted lowered innate immune APOBEC and ADAR anti-viral deaminase responses in a significant proportion of elderly patients would be consistent with/reflected in a low level of observed mutagenesis in many isolated SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Our findings are consistent with this expectation. The analysis also supports the conclusions of the Victorian government's Department of Health that essentially one variant or haplotype infected Victorian aged care facilities where the great majority (79%) of all 820 SARS-CoV-2 associated deaths occurred. The implications of our data analysis for other localized epidemics and efficient coronavirus vaccine design and delivery are discussed.