Critique of early models of the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa based on contemporary empirical data from Zimbabwe

"I am adhering to HIV treatment so that I can live to support her": A qualitative study of upward intergenerational support in South Africa

Background

Intergenerational family care, which was upended by the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), may return to a pre-HIV era arrangement as access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) expands and treated adults can once again provide support for older household members. Empirical research has demonstrated positive 'spillover effects' of ART uptake from treated adults to younger generations, yet much less is known about the nature and breadth of such effects to older generations. This study explores the role and lived experiences among adults who take up ART and those of an older generation with whom they live.

Methods

We conducted a qualitative study consisting of semi-structured interviews (n = 46) embedded in the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in rural South Africa, between July and September 2022. We purposefully sampled two respondent categories: (i) young or middle-aged adults on ART (aged 18-59 years old); and (ii) older adults (aged ≥60 years old) who were affiliated with a young or middle-aged adult on ART. We used thematic content analysis to extract, code, and categorise relevant text by types of upward spillover effects from ART in younger adults to older adults. Quantitative data was extracted from the existing Agincourt HDSS database and matched to qualitative interview data based on Clinic link unique identifiers of study participants.

Results

Mean age was 41 years among young or middle-aged adults (n = 29) and 72 years among older adults (n = 17). Among younger adults, time on ART ranged from five months to more than 21 years. Both young or middle-aged adults on ART and older adults reported positive spillover effects for older adults across five main tiers: caregiving, financial support, physical and mental health, living arrangements and household relationships, and stigma and reputation. Spillover challenges included financial costs and caregiving responsibilities following ART initiation of young or middle-aged adults, although these additional caregiving responsibilities were generally not perceived as particularly burdensome.

Conclusions

ART is likely to benefit older adults in South Africa whose families are affected by HIV. This study identified a wide range of perceived spillover effects from ART in younger adults to older adults, including improvements to upward intergenerational support. These qualitative findings offer a guide to researchers, policymakers, and donors to capitalise on the broader societal effects of a large-scale health intervention to further support family structures and meet the needs of a growing older population.

Examining differentials in HIV transmission risk behaviour and its associated factors among men in Southern African countries

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), particularly Southern and East Africa, has the highest AIDS deaths and HIV-infected people in the world. Even though considerable effort has been made over the years to study HIV transmission risk behaviours of different population groups in SSA, there is little evidence of studies that have looked at pooled effects of associated HIV risk factors among men, particularly in Southern Africa. Thus, this study sought to fill this gap in knowledge by investigating the variations in HIV risk behaviours among men in the region. The study analysed cross-sectional data based on the most recent country Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for six countries, namely Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The study employed multivariate logistic regression models on a pooled dataset and individual country data to examine the relative risk of education and other factors on HIV risk behaviour indicators. It considered: (i) condom use during high risk-sex, (ii) multiple sexual partnerships, and (iii) HIV testing among men aged 15-59 years. Findings show that the proportion of men who engaged in HIV transmission risk behaviour was high in Southern Africa. Two-thirds of men reported non-use of a condom during last sex with most recent partners while 22% engaged in multiple sexual partnerships. The percentage of men who used condoms during sex with most recent partners ranged from 18% in Mozambique to 58% in Namibia. Age, residence, marital status and household wealth status were associated with HIV risk factors in the region. The study has established country variations in terms of how individual factors influence HIV transmission risk behaviour among men. Results show that the level of education was associated with increased use of condoms, only in Zambia and Mozambique. Delay in starting a sexual debut was associated with reduced odds of having multiple sexual partnerships in the region. Suggesting the need to strengthen comprehensive sexuality education among young men in school, to promote social behaviour change during adolescence age. The study presents important results to inform direct health policy, programme and government action to address HIV prevalence in the Southern region of Africa.

Supporting adolescents living with HIV within boarding schools in Kenya

Adolescents and youth living with HIV (AYLHIV) are a uniquely vulnerable population facing challenges around adherence, disclosure of HIV status and stigma. Providing school-based support for AYLHIV offers an opportunity to optimize their health and wellbeing. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of school-based supportive interventions for AYLHIV in Kenya. From 2016-2019, with funding from ViiV Healthcare, the Elizabeth Glaser Pediatric AIDS Foundation implemented the innovative Red Carpet Program (RCP) for AYLHIV in participating public healthcare facilities and boarding schools in Homa Bay and Turkana Counties in Kenya. In this analysis, we report the implementation of the school-based interventions for AYLHIV in schools, which included: a) capacity building for overall in-school HIV, stigma and sexual and reproductive health education; b) HIV care and treatment support; c) bi-directional linkages with healthcare facilities; and d) psychosocial support (PSS). Overall, 561 school staff and 476 school adolescent health advocates received training to facilitate supportive environments for AYLHIV and school-wide education on HIV, stigma, and sexual and reproductive health. All 87 boarding schools inter-linked to 66 regional healthcare facilities to support care and treatment of AYLHIV. Across all RCP schools, 546 AYLHIV had their HIV status disclosed to school staff and received supportive care within schools, including treatment literacy and adherence counselling, confidential storage and access to HIV medications. School-based interventions to optimize care and treatment support for AYLHIV are feasible and contribute to advancing sexual and reproductive health within schools.

The Intergenerational Impact of a Slow Pandemic: HIV and Children

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has, over the last four decades, infected millions of young women and their children. Interventions developed in parallel with the spread of the virus have been able to reduce rates of vertical transmission from mother to child. The impact of HIV in children can be direct in children living with HIV (CLHIV) and exposed to HIV and uninfected, or indirect through impacts on their parents, caregivers, and family. In 2018, the United Nations joint programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) estimated that 1.7 million children were living with HIV, 160,000 were newly infected with HIV, and 100,000 died from HIV. Improvement in treatment regimens can improve the life chances of children, but adherence to treatment is a problem, especially for adolescents. Injectable long acting treatments, or interventions to improve service delivery and support for adolescents living with HIV may improve treatment success. In addition to failures of HIV prevention and treatment in CLHIV, there are concerns over exposure to the virus and antivirals leading to delayed child development. To improve the wellbeing of children affected by HIV, social support is necessary, but we need to find ways of enhancing the impact of interventions, perhaps through combining them.

Documenting and explaining the HIV decline in east Zimbabwe: the Manicaland General Population Cohort

PURPOSE

The Manicaland cohort was established to provide robust scientific data on HIV prevalence and incidence, patterns of sexual risk behaviour and the demographic impact of HIV in a sub-Saharan African population subject to a generalised HIV epidemic. The aims were later broadened to include provision of data on the coverage and effectiveness of national HIV control programmes including antiretroviral therapy (ART).

PARTICIPANTS

General population open cohort located in 12 sites in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe, representing 4 major socioeconomic strata (small towns, agricultural estates, roadside settlements and subsistence farming areas). 9,109 of 11,453 (79.5%) eligible adults (men 17-54 years; women 15-44 years) were recruited in a phased household census between July 1998 and January 2000. Five rounds of follow-up of the prospective household census and the open cohort were conducted at 2-year or 3-year intervals between July 2001 and November 2013. Follow-up rates among surviving residents ranged between 77.0% (over 3 years) and 96.4% (2 years).

FINDINGS TO DATE

HIV prevalence was 25.1% at baseline and had a substantial demographic impact with 10-fold higher mortality in HIV-infected adults than in uninfected adults and a reduction in the growth rate in the worst affected areas (towns) from 2.9% to 1.0%pa. HIV infection rates have been highest in young adults with earlier commencement of sexual activity and in those with older sexual partners and larger numbers of lifetime partners. HIV prevalence has since fallen to 15.8% and HIV incidence has also declined from 2.1% (1998-2003) to 0.63% (2009-2013) largely due to reduced sexual risk behaviour. HIV-associated mortality fell substantially after 2009 with increased availability of ART.

FUTURE PLANS

We plan to extend the cohort to measure the effects on the epidemic of current and future HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Proposals for access to these data and for collaboration are welcome.

Empirical validation of the UNAIDS Spectrum model for subnational HIV estimates: case-study of children and adults in Manicaland, Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

More cost-effective HIV control may be achieved by targeting geographical areas with high infection rates. The AIDS Impact model of Spectrum - used routinely to produce national HIV estimates - could provide the required subnational estimates but is rarely validated with empirical data, even at a national level.

DESIGN

The validity of the Spectrum model estimates were compared with empirical estimates.

METHODS

Antenatal surveillance and population survey data from a population HIV cohort study in Manicaland, East Zimbabwe, were input into Spectrum 5.441 to create a simulation representative of the cohort population. Model and empirical estimates were compared for key demographic and epidemiological outcomes. Alternative scenarios for data availability were examined and sensitivity analyses were conducted for model assumptions considered important for subnational estimates.

RESULTS

Spectrum estimates generally agreed with observed data but HIV incidence estimates were higher than empirical estimates, whereas estimates of early age all-cause adult mortality were lower. Child HIV prevalence estimates matched well with the survey prevalence among children. Estimated paternal orphanhood was lower than empirical estimates. Including observations from earlier in the epidemic did not improve the HIV incidence model fit. Migration had little effect on observed discrepancies - possibly because the model ignores differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents.

CONCLUSION

The Spectrum model, using subnational surveillance and population data, provided reasonable subnational estimates although some discrepancies were noted. Differences in HIV prevalence between migrants and residents may need to be captured in the model if applied to subnational epidemics.

The effects of HIV on fertility by infection duration: evidence from African population cohorts before antiretroviral treatment availability

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the relationship between HIV natural history and fertility by duration of infection in east and southern Africa before the availability of antiretroviral therapy and assess potential biases in estimates of age-specific subfertility when using retrospective birth histories in cross-sectional studies.

DESIGN

Pooled analysis of prospective population-based HIV cohort studies in Masaka (Uganda), Kisesa (Tanzania) and Manicaland (Zimbabwe).

METHODS

Women aged 15-49 years who had ever tested for HIV were included. Analyses were censored at antiretroviral treatment roll-out. Fertility rate ratios were calculated to see the relationship of duration of HIV infection on fertility, adjusting for background characteristics. Survivorship and misclassification biases on age-specific subfertility estimates from cross-sectional surveys were estimated by reclassifying person-time from the cohort data to simulate cross-sectional surveys and comparing fertility rate ratios with true cohort results.

RESULTS

HIV-negative and HIV-positive women contributed 15 440 births and 86 320 person-years; and 1236 births and 11 240 000 person-years, respectively, to the final dataset. Adjusting for age, study site and calendar year, each additional year since HIV seroconversion was associated with a 0.02 (95% confidence interval 0.01-0.03) relative decrease in fertility for HIV-positive women. Survivorship and misclassification biases in simulated retrospective birth histories resulted in modest underestimates of subfertility by 2-5% for age groups 20-39 years.

CONCLUSION

Longer duration of infection is associated with greater relative fertility reduction for HIV-positive women. This should be considered when creating estimates for HIV prevalence among pregnant women and prevention of mother-to-child transmission need over the course of the HIV epidemic and antiretroviral treatment scale up.

A case study of school support and the psychological, emotional and behavioural consequences of HIV and AIDS on adolescents

Various studies have reported a huge increase in the numbers of orphaned adolescents in Sub-Saharan Africa and its effects on their psychological, emotional and behavioural development. Yet, their needs are seldom recognised or adequately addressed in policy and programmes.This article uses a qualitative study to report the experiences of 11 orphaned adolescents (5 boys and 6 girls aged between 15 and 18 years) affected by HIV and AIDS in a secondary school (in Atteridgeville, Pretoria, South Africa) and the school support provided by them. The primary data-generation strategies were informal interviews and the Beck Youth Inventories-II (BYI-II) (adopted to measure the participants' level of emotional, behavioural and psychological problems). All interview transcriptions with the participants were thematically analysed. BYI-II data were subjected to T scores (in percentages) to know the participant's psychological, behavioural and emotional problems in order to compare it with their perceptions on the degree of support provided by the school. Result shows that participants have a high prevalence of psychological, behavioural and emotional problems and that the school support provided to them (teachers' support, the general school environment and the degree of discrimination, labelling and bullying that exists in the school) was not sufficient. The participants, however, reported a high level of support from the principal. In conclusion, we have suggested the urgent need for teachers to acquire and possess basic knowledge and skills in caring and paying attention to learners affected by HIV and AIDS and for government agencies and NGOs working with HIV-and AIDS-affected children, to focus on proposals that address the psychological, behavioural and emotional problems in such affected adolescents.

Community group membership and stigmatising attitudes towards people living with HIV in Eastern Zimbabwe

Stigmatising attitudes towards people living with HIV and AIDS (PLHIV) are hampering attempts to control HIV epidemics in sub-Saharan African countries. This study measures the effect of social capital, in the form of local community groups, in reducing stigma and tests a new explanatory framework for the association between community group membership and less stigmatising attitudes. Prospective data on membership of a wide range of different community groups and stigmatising attitudes (being unwilling to care for a relative with AIDS), collected from a general population cohort of 5,253 men and women aged 15–54 years in eastern Zimbabwe between 2003 and 2008 were analysed using multivariable logistic regression. 36 % of respondents were members of community groups throughout the study period. Individuals in community groups were less likely to express stigmatising attitudes towards PLHIV—3.4 versus 9.5 % (adjusted odds ratio = 0.46, p < 0.001). Discussions of care for PLHIV within groups, improved knowledge about AIDS, greater exposure to PLHIV, and increased uptake of HIV testing and counselling did not account for the association. Further work is needed to identify the mechanisms through which community participation can reduce stigma. Nevertheless, these findings suggest that promoting well-informed discussions about HIV within pre-existing community groups and involving these groups in stigma reduction programmes could be effective means of reducing stigma at the grassroots level.

Temporal dynamics of religion as a determinant of HIV infection in East Zimbabwe: a serial cross-sectional analysis

Background

Religion is an important underlying determinant of HIV spread in sub-Saharan Africa. However, little is known about how religion influences changes in HIV prevalence and associated sexual behaviours over time.

Objectives

To compare changes in HIV prevalence between major religious groups in eastern Zimbabwe during a period of substantial HIV risk reduction (1998–2005) and to investigate whether variations observed can be explained by differences in behaviour change.

Methods

We analysed serial cross-sectional data from two rounds of a longitudinal population survey in eastern Zimbabwe. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were developed to compare differences in sexual behaviour and HIV prevalence between religious groups and to investigate changes over time controlling for potential confounders.

Results

Christian churches were the most popular religious grouping. Over time, Spiritualist churches increased in popularity and, for men, Traditional religion and no religion became less and more common, respectively. At baseline (1998–2000), HIV prevalence was higher in Traditionalists and in those with no religion than in people in Christian churches (men 26.7% and 23.8% vs. 17.5%, women: 35.4% and 37.5% vs. 24.1%). These effects were explained by differences in socio-demographic characteristics (for Traditional and men with no religion) or sexual behaviour (women with no religion). Spiritualist men (but not women) had lower HIV prevalence than Christians, after adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics (14.4% vs. 17.5%, aOR = 0.8), due to safer behaviour. HIV prevalence had fallen in all religious groups at follow-up (2003–2005). Odds of infection in Christians reduced relative to those in other religious groups for both sexes, effects that were mediated largely by greater reductions in sexual-risk behaviour and, possibly, for women, by patterns of conversion between churches.

Conclusion

Variation in behavioural responses to HIV between the major church groupings has contributed to a change in the religious pattern of infection in eastern Zimbabwe.

Grassroots community organizations' contribution to the scale-up of HIV testing and counselling services in Zimbabwe

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether community engagement (participation in grassroots organizations) contributed to increases in HIV testing in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

Prospective data on membership of local community organizations (e.g. women's groups and burial societies) and uptake of HIV testing and counselling (HTC) and prevention-of-mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services were collected from 5260 adults interviewed in two consecutive rounds of a general-population cohort survey in eastern Zimbabwe between 2003 and 2008. The effects of community engagement on uptake of services during the follow-up period were measured using logistic regression to adjust for observed confounding factors.

RESULTS

Sixteen percent of men and 47% of women were consistent members of community organizations; 58 and 35% of these people discussed HIV in their meetings and were members of externally sponsored organizations, respectively. Fewer men (10.1%) than women (32.4%) took up HTC during follow-up [adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=4.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.43-4.86, P<0.001]. HTC uptake was higher for members of community organizations than for nonmembers: men, 15.0 versus 9.2% (1.67, 1.15-2.43, P=0.007); women, 35.6 versus 29.6% (1.26, 1.06-1.49, P=0.008). Membership of community organizations showed a nonsignificant association with PMTCT uptake amongst recently pregnant women (42.3 versus 34.2%; 1.30, 0.94-1.78, P=0.1). The most consistent positive associations between community participation and HTC and PMTCT uptake were found in organizations that discussed HIV and when external sponsorship was absent.

CONCLUSION

Grassroots organizations contributed to increased uptake of HTC services in eastern Zimbabwe in the mid-2000s. Partnerships with these organizations could harness community support for the further increases in HIV testing needed in sub-Saharan Africa.

The role of community conversations in facilitating local HIV competence: case study from rural Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

This paper examines the potential for community conversations to strengthen positive responses to HIV in resource-poor environments. Community conversations are an intervention method through which local people work with a facilitator to collectively identify local strengths and challenges and brainstorm potential strategies for solving local problems.

METHODS

We conducted 18 community conversations (with six groups at three points in time) with a total of 77 participants in rural Zimbabwe (20% HIV positive). Participants were invited to reflect on how they were responding to the challenges of HIV, both as individuals and in community groups, and to think of ways to better support openness about HIV, kindness towards people living with HIV and greater community uptake of HIV prevention and treatment.

RESULTS

Community conversations contributed to local HIV competence through (1) enabling participants to brainstorm concrete action plans for responding to HIV, (2) providing a forum to develop a sense of common purpose in relation to implementing these, (3) encouraging and challenging participants to overcome fear, denial and passivity, (4) providing an opportunity for participants to move from seeing themselves as passive recipients of information to active problem solvers, and (5) reducing silence and stigma surrounding HIV.

CONCLUSIONS

Our discussion cautions that community conversations, while holding great potential to help communities recognize their potential strengths and capacities for responding more effectively to HIV, are not a magic bullet. Poverty, poor harvests and political instability frustrated and limited many participants' efforts to put their plans into action. On the other hand, support from outside the community, in this case the increasing availability of antiretroviral treatment, played a vital role in enabling communities to challenge stigma and envision new, more positive, ways of responding to the epidemic.

Can AIDS stigma be reduced to poverty stigma? Exploring Zimbabwean children's representations of poverty and AIDS

OBJECTIVE

We use children's drawings to investigate social stigmatization of AIDS-affected and poverty-affected children by their peers, in the light of suggestions that the stigmatization of AIDS-affected children might derive more from the poverty experienced by these children than from their association with AIDS.

METHODS

A qualitative study, in rural Zimbabwe, used draw-and-write techniques to elicit children's (10-12 years) representations of AIDS-affected children (n= 30) and poverty-affected children (n= 33) in 2009 and 2010 respectively.

RESULTS

Representations of children affected by AIDS and by poverty differed significantly. The main problems facing AIDS-affected children were said to be the psychosocial humiliations of AIDS stigma and children's distress about sick relatives. Contrastingly, poverty-affected children were depicted as suffering from physical and material neglect and deprivation. Children affected by AIDS were described as caregivers of parents whom illness prevented from working. This translated into admiration and respect for children's active contribution to household survival. Poverty-affected children were often portrayed as more passive victims of their guardians' inability or unwillingness to work or to prioritize their children's needs, with these children having fewer opportunities to exercise agency in response to their plight.

CONCLUSIONS

The nature of children's stigmatization of their AIDS-affected peers may often be quite distinct from poverty stigma, in relation to the nature of suffering (primarily psychosocial and material respectively), the opportunities for agency offered by each affliction, and the opportunities each condition offers for affected children to earn the respect of their peers and community. We conclude that the particular nature of AIDS stigma offers greater opportunities for stigma reduction than poverty stigma.

Estimating the resources required in the roll-out of universal access to antiretroviral treatment in Zimbabwe

OBJECTIVES

To develop projections of the resources required (person-years of drug supply and healthcare worker time) for universal access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

A stochastic mathematical model of disease progression, diagnosis, clinical monitoring and survival in HIV infected individuals.

FINDINGS

The number of patients receiving ART is determined by many factors, including the strategy of the ART programme (method of initiation, frequency of patient monitoring, ability to include patients diagnosed before ART became available), other healthcare services (referral rates from antenatal clinics, uptake of HIV testing), demographic and epidemiological conditions (past and future trends in incidence rates and population growth) as well as the medical impact of ART (average survival and the relationship with CD4 count when initiated). The variations in these factors lead to substantial differences in long-term projections; with universal access by 2010 and no further prevention interventions, between 370 000 and almost 2 million patients could be receiving treatment in 2030-a fivefold difference. Under universal access, by 2010 each doctor will initiate ART for up to two patients every day and the case-load for nurses will at least triple as more patients enter care and start treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The resources required by ART programmes are great and depend on the healthcare systems and the demographic/epidemiological context. This leads to considerable uncertainty in long-term projections and large variation in the resources required in different countries and over time. Understanding how current practices relate to future resource requirements can help optimise ART programmes and inform long-term public health planning.

More on the cohort-component model of population projection in the context of HIV/AIDS: A Leslie matrix representation and new estimates

This article presents an extension of the cohort-component model of population projection (CCMPP) first formulated by Heuveline (2003) that is capable of modeling a population affected by HIV. Heuveline proposes a maximum likelihood approach to estimate the age profile of HIV incidence that produced the HIV epidemics in East Africa during the 1990s. We extend this work by developing the Leslie matrix representation of the CCMPP, which greatly facilitates the implementation of the model for parameter estimation and projection. The Leslie matrix also contains information about the stable tendencies of the corresponding population, such as the stable age distribution and time to stability. Another contribution of this work is that we update the sources of data used to estimate the parameters, and use these data to estimate a modified version of the CCMPP that includes (estimated) parameters governing the survival experience of the infected population. A further application of the model to a small population with high HIV prevalence in rural South Africa is presented as an additional demonstration. This work lays the foundation for development of more robust and flexible Bayesian estimation methods that will greatly enhance the utility of this and similar models.

When masculinity interferes with women's treatment of HIV infection: a qualitative study about adherence to antiretroviral therapy in Zimbabwe

Background

Social constructions of masculinity have been shown to serve as an obstacle to men's access and adherence to antiretroviral therapies (ART). In the light of women's relative lack of power in many aspects of interpersonal relationships with men in many African settings, our objective is to explore how male denial of HIV/AIDS impacts on their female partners' ability to access and adhere to ART.

Methods

We conducted a qualitative case study involving thematic analysis of 37 individual interviews and five focus groups with a total of 53 male and female antiretroviral drug users and 25 healthcare providers in rural eastern Zimbabwe.

Results

Rooted in hegemonic notions of masculinity, men saw HIV/AIDS as a threat to their manhood and dignity and exhibited a profound fear of the disease. In the process of denying and avoiding their association with AIDS, many men undermine their wives' efforts to access and adhere to ART. Many women felt unable to disclose their HIV status to their husbands, forcing them to take their medication in secret, and act without a supportive treatment partner, which is widely accepted to be vitally important for adherence success. Some husbands, when discovering that their wives are on ART, deny them permission to take the drugs, or indeed steal the drugs for their own treatment. Men's avoidance of HIV also leave many HIV-positive women feeling vulnerable to re-infection as their husbands, in an attempt to demonstrate their manhood, are believed to continue engaging in HIV-risky behaviours.

Conclusions

Hegemonic notions of masculinity can interfere with women's adherence to ART. It is important that those concerned with promoting effective treatment services recognise the gender and household dynamics that may prevent some women from successfully adhering to ART, and explore ways to work with both women and men to identify couples-based strategies to increase adherence to ART

Masculinity as a barrier to men's use of HIV services in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

A growing number of studies highlight men's disinclination to make use of HIV services. This suggests there are factors that prevent men from engaging with health services and an urgent need to unpack the forms of sociality that determine men's acceptance or rejection of HIV services.

METHODS

Drawing on the perspectives of 53 antiretroviral drug users and 25 healthcare providers, we examine qualitatively how local constructions of masculinity in rural Zimbabwe impact on men's use of HIV services.

RESULTS

Informants reported a clear and hegemonic notion of masculinity that required men to be and act in control, to have know-how, be strong, resilient, disease free, highly sexual and economically productive. However, such traits were in direct conflict with the 'good patient' persona who is expected to accept being HIV positive, take instructions from nurses and engage in health-enabling behaviours such as attending regular hospital visits and refraining from alcohol and unprotected extra-marital sex. This conflict between local understandings of manhood and biopolitical representations of 'a good patient' can provide a possible explanation to why so many men do not make use of HIV services in Zimbabwe. However, once men had been counselled and had the opportunity to reflect upon the impact of ART on their productivity and social value, it was possible for some to construct new and more ART-friendly versions of masculinity.

CONCLUSION

We urge HIV service providers to consider the obstacles that prevent many men from accessing their services and argue for community-based and driven initiatives that facilitate safe and supportive social spaces for men to openly discuss social constructions of masculinity as well as renegotiate more health-enabling masculinities.

Men's multiple sexual partnerships in 15 Sub-Saharan African countries: sociodemographic patterns and implications

Men's multiple sexual partnerships contribute to the spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, but the social determinants of these relationships remain poorly understood. Prevailing wisdom suggests that men's institutionalized authority over women and their control of economic resources are key facilitators of multiple partnerships in this region. Men's exposure to or freedom from social control mechanisms embedded in family and village life may also play a role. This article provides insight into these issues by examining sociodemographic correlates of men's multiple sexual partnerships using data from recent Demographic and Health Surveys in 15 sub-Saharan African countries. The prevalence of self-reported multiple partnerships varies widely among countries. Sociodemographic patterns of such partnerships confirm the importance of men's control of economic resources and suggest that men's freedom from social control mechanisms may be more important than their authority over their wives.

Social capital and women's reduced vulnerability to HIV infection in rural Zimbabwe

Social capital—especially through its “network” dimension (high levels of participation in local community groups)—is thought to be an important determinant of health in many contexts. We investigate its effect on HIV prevention, using prospective data from a general population cohort in eastern Zimbabwe spanning a period of extensive behavior change (1998–2003). Almost half of the initially uninfected women interviewed were members of at least one community group. In an analysis of 88 communities, individuals with higher levels of community group participation had lower incidence of new HIV infections and more of them had adopted safer behaviors, although these effects were largely accounted for by differences in socio-demographic composition. Individual women in community groups had lower HIV incidence and more extensive behavior change, even after controlling for confounding factors. Community group membership was not associated with lower HIV incidence in men, possibly refecting a propensity among men to participate in groups that allow them to develop and demonstrate their masculine identities—often at the expense of their health. Support for women's community groups could be an effective HIV prevention strategy in countries with large-scale HIV epidemics.

"We, the AIDS people. . .": how antiretroviral therapy enables Zimbabweans living with HIV/AIDS to cope with stigma

We studied the impact of antiretroviral treatment availability on HIV/AIDS stigma through interviews with 118 antiretroviral treatment users, HIV/AIDS caregivers, and nurses in Zimbabwe. Treatment enables positive social and economic participation through which users can begin to reconstruct their shattered sense of social value. However, stigma remains strong, and antiretroviral treatment users remain mired in conflictual symbolic relationships between the HIV/AIDS people and the untested. To date, the restoration of users' own sense of self-worth through treatment has not reduced fear and sexual embarrassment in framing community responses to people living with HIV/AIDS. Much remains to be learned about the complex interaction of economic and psychosocial dimensions of poverty, treatment availability, and conservative sexual moralities in driving HIV/AIDS stigma in specific settings.

Measuring and correcting biased child mortality statistics in countries with generalized epidemics of HIV infection

OBJECTIVE

Under Millennium Development Goal 4, countries are required to reduce child mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. In countries with generalized epidemics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, standard statistics based on fertility history may misrepresent progress towards this target owing to the correlation between deaths among mothers and early childhood deaths from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.

METHODS

To empirically estimate this bias, child mortality data and fertility history, including births to deceased women, were collected through prospective household surveys in eastern Zimbabwe during 1998-2005. A mathematical model was then used to investigate the determinants and temporal dynamics of the bias, first in Zimbabwe and then in other countries with different background mortality rates and HIV-related epidemic profiles.

FINDINGS

According to the empirical data, standard cross-sectional survey statistics underestimated true infant and under-5 mortality by 6.7% and 9.8%, respectively. These estimates were in agreement with the output from the model, in which the bias varied according to the magnitude and stage of the epidemic of HIV infection and background mortality rates. The bias was greater the longer the period elapsed before the survey and in later stages of the epidemic. Bias could substantially distort the measured effect of interventions to reduce non-HIV-related mortality and of programmes to prevent mother-to-child transmission, especially when trends are based on data from a single survey.

CONCLUSION

The correlation between the HIV-related deaths of mothers and their children can bias survey estimates of early child mortality. A mathematical model with a user-friendly interface is available to correct for this bias when measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4 in countries with generalized epidemics of HIV infection.

AIDS and declining support for dependent elderly people in Africa: retrospective analysis using demographic and health surveys

OBJECTIVES

To determine the relation between the HIV/AIDS epidemic and support for dependent elderly people in Africa.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis using data from Demographic and Health Surveys.

SETTING

22 African countries between 1991 and 2006.

PARTICIPANTS

123,176 individuals over the age of 60.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We investigated how three measures of the living arrangements of older people have been affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic: the number of older individuals living alone (that is, the number of unattended elderly people); the number of older individuals living with only dependent children under the age of 10 (that is, in missing generation households); and the number of adults age 18-59 (that is, prime age adults) per household where an older person lives.

RESULTS

An increase in annual AIDS mortality of one death per 1000 people was associated with a 1.5% increase in the proportion of older individuals living alone (95% CI 1.2% to 1.9%) and a 0.4% increase in the number of older individuals living in missing generation households (95% CI 0.3% to 0.6%). Increases in AIDS mortality were also associated with fewer prime age adults in households with at least one older person and at least one prime age adult (P<0.001). These findings suggest that in our study countries, which encompass 70% of the sub-Saharan population, the HIV/AIDS epidemic could be responsible for 582,200-917,000 older individuals living alone without prime age adults and 141,000-323,100 older individuals being the sole caregivers for young children.

CONCLUSIONS

Africa's HIV/AIDS epidemic might be responsible for a large number of older people losing their support and having to care for young children. This population has previously been under-recognised. Efforts to reduce HIV/AIDS deaths could have large "spillover" benefits for elderly people in Africa.

Patterns of self-reported behaviour change associated with receiving voluntary counselling and testing in a longitudinal study from Manicaland, Zimbabwe

Voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) is promoted as a potential HIV prevention measure. We describe trends in uptake of VCT for HIV, and patterns of subsequent behaviour change associated with receiving VCT in a population-based open cohort in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. The relationship between receipt of VCT and subsequent reported behaviour was analysed using generalized linear models with random effects. At the third survey, 8.6% of participants (1,079/12,533), had previously received VCT. Women who received VCT, both those positive and negative, reduced their reported number of new partners. Among those testing positive, this risk reduction was enhanced with time since testing. Among men, no behavioural risk reduction associated with VCT was observed. Significant increases in consistent condom use, with regular or non-regular partners, following VCT, were not observed. This study suggests that, among women, particularly those who are infected, behavioural risk reduction does occur following VCT.

Vaccines and microbicides preventing HIV-1, HSV-2, and HPV mucosal transmission

HIV-1, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), and human papillomavirus (HPV), among other sexually transmitted infections, represent a major burden for global health. Initial insights into the mucosal transmission of these viral pathogens have raised optimism with regard to the rapid generation of protective vaccines. Nevertheless, setbacks for HIV-1 and HSV-2 vaccines have seriously challenged the initial enthusiasm. Recently, two new vaccines that efficiently prevented HPV infection have renewed the hope that vaccinal prevention of viral mucosal sexually transmitted infections is possible. HIV-1 and HSV-2 differ from HPV, and each virus needs to be tackled with a distinct approach. However, vaccines are not the only possible answer. Topically applied agents (microbicides) are an attractive alternative in the prevention of HIV-1 and HSV-2 mucosal transmission. Progress in understanding the mechanisms of genital transmission of HIV-1 and HSV-2 is required for successful vaccine or microbicide candidates to emerge from current approaches.

Trends in marriage and time spent single in sub-Saharan Africa: a comparative analysis of six population-based cohort studies and nine Demographic and Health Surveys

OBJECTIVES

To describe trends in age at first sex (AFS), age at first marriage (AFM) and time spent single between events and to compare age-specific trends in marital status in six cohort studies.

METHODS

Cohort data from Uganda, Tanzania, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Malawi and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe were analysed. Life table methods were used to calculate median AFS, AFM and time spent single. In each study, two surveys were chosen to compare marital status by age and identify changes over time.

RESULTS

Median AFM was much higher in South Africa than in the other sites. Between the other populations there were considerable differences in median AFS and AFM (AFS 17-19 years for men and 16-19 years for women, AFM 21-24 years and 18-19 years, respectively, for the 1970-9 birth cohort). In all surveys, men reported a longer time spent single than women (median 4-7 years for men and 0-2 years for women). Median years spent single for women has increased, apart from in Manicaland. For men in Rakai it has decreased slightly over time but increased in Kisesa and Masaka. The DHS data showed similar trends to those in the cohort data. The age-specific proportion of married individuals has changed little over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Median AFS, AFM and time spent single vary considerably among these populations. These three measures are underlying determinants of sexual risk and HIV infection, and they may partially explain the variation in HIV prevalence levels between these populations.

Assessing evidence for behaviour change affecting the course of HIV epidemics: a new mathematical modelling approach and application to data from Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

Determining whether interventions to reduce HIV transmission have worked is essential, but complicated by the potential for generalised epidemics to evolve over time without individuals changing risk behaviour. We aimed to develop a method to evaluate evidence for changes in risk behaviour altering the course of an HIV epidemic.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model of HIV transmission, incorporating the potential for natural changes in the epidemic as it matures and the introduction of antiretroviral treatment, and applied a Bayesian Melding framework, in which the model and observed trends in prevalence can be compared. We applied the model to Zimbabwe, using HIV prevalence estimates from antenatal clinic surveillance and house-hold based surveys, and basing model parameters on data from sexual behaviour surveys.

RESULTS

There was strong evidence for reductions in risk behaviour stemming HIV transmission. We estimate these changes occurred between 1999 and 2004 and averted 660,000 (95% credible interval: 460,000-860,000) infections by 2008.

DISCUSSION

The model and associated analysis framework provide a robust way to evaluate the evidence for changes in risk behaviour affecting the course of HIV epidemics, avoiding confounding by the natural evolution of HIV epidemics.

Rethinking the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Studies of cumulative HIV incidence suggest that cofactors such as genital ulcer disease, HIV disease stage, and male circumcision influence HIV transmission; however, the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1 is commonly cited as a fixed value (approximately 0.001, or one transmission per 1000 contacts). We sought to estimate transmission cofactor effects on the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1 and to quantify the extent to which study methods have affected infectivity estimates. We undertook a systematic search (up to April 27, 2008) of PubMed, Web of Science, and relevant bibliographies to identify articles estimating the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1. We used meta-regression and stratified random-effects meta-analysis to assess differences in infectivity associated with cofactors and study methods. Infectivity estimates were very heterogeneous, ranging from zero transmissions after more than 100 penile-vaginal contacts in some serodiscordant couples to one transmission for every 3.1 episodes of heterosexual anal intercourse. Estimates were only weakly associated with study methods. Infectivity differences, expressed as number of transmissions per 1000 contacts, were 8.1 (95 % CI 0.4-15.8) when comparing uncircumcised to circumcised susceptible men, 6.0 (3.3-8.8) comparing susceptible individuals with and without genital ulcer disease, 1.9 (0.9-2.8) comparing late-stage to mid-stage index cases, and 2.5 (0.2-4.9) comparing early-stage to mid-stage index cases. A single value for the heterosexual infectivity of HIV-1 fails to reflect the variation associated with important cofactors. The commonly cited value of 0.001 was estimated among stable couples with low prevalences of high-risk cofactors, and represents a lower bound. Cofactor effects are important to include in epidemic models, policy considerations, and prevention messages.

Reproducing in cities

Reproducing in cities has always been costly, leading to lower fertility (that is, lower birth rates) in urban than in rural areas. Historically, although cities provided job opportunities, initially residents incurred the penalty of higher infant mortality, but as mortality rates fell at the end of the 19th century, European birth rates began to plummet. Fertility decline in Africa only started recently and has been dramatic in some cities. Here it is argued that both historical and evolutionary demographers are interpreting fertility declines across the globe in terms of the relative costs of child rearing, which increase to allow children to outcompete their peers. Now largely free from the fear of early death, postindustrial societies may create an environment that generates runaway parental investment, which will continue to drive fertility ever lower.