Divergent biodiversity change within ecosystems

Slower but deeper community change: Intrinsic dynamics regulate anthropogenic impacts on species temporal turnover

Understanding the mechanisms behind biodiversity dynamics is central to assessing and forecasting anthropogenic impacts on ecological communities. However, the manner in which external environmental drivers act in concert with intrinsic ecological processes to influence local temporal turnover is currently largely unexplored. Here, we determine how human impacts affect multiple metrics of bird community turnover to establish the ecological mechanisms behind compositional change. We used US Breeding Bird Survey data to calculate transect-level rates of three measures of temporal species turnover: (1) "short-term" (initial rate of decline of Sørensen similarity), (2) "long-term" (asymptotic Sørensen similarity), and (3) "throughput" (overall species accumulation rate from species-time relationship exponents) over 2692 transects across 27 regional habitat types. We then hierarchically fit linear models to estimate the effect of anthropogenic impact on these turnover metrics, using the Human Modification Index proxy, while accounting for observed species richness, the size of the species pool, and annual environmental variability. We found broadly consistent impacts of increased anthropogenic pressures across diverse habitat types. The Human Modification Index was associated with greater turnover at long timescales, but marginally slower short-term turnover. The species "throughput" (accumulation rate) was not notably influenced. Examining anthropogenic impacts on different aspects of species turnover in combination allows greater ecological insight. Observed human impacts on short-term turnover were the opposite of existing expectations and suggest humans are disrupting the background turnover of these systems, rather than simply driving rapid directed turnover. The increased long-term turnover without concurrent increases in species accumulation implies human impacts lead to shifts in species occurrence frequency rather than simply greater arrival of "new" species. These results highlight the role of intrinsic dynamics and caution against simple interpretations of increased species turnover as reflections of environmental change.

Three major steps toward the conservation of freshwater and riparian biodiversity

Freshwater ecosystems and their bordering wetlands and riparian zones are vital for human society and biological diversity. Yet, they are among the most degraded ecosystems, where sharp declines in biodiversity are driven by human activities, such as hydropower development, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. Because freshwater ecosystems are characterized by strongly reciprocal linkages with surrounding landscapes, human activities that encroach on or degrade riparian zones ultimately lead to declines in freshwater-riparian ecosystem functioning. We synthesized results of a symposium on freshwater, riparian, and wetland processes and interactions and analyzed some of the major problems associated with improving freshwater and riparian research and management. Three distinct barriers are the lack of involvement of local people in conservation research and management, absence of adequate measurement of biodiversity in freshwater and riparian ecosystems, and separate legislation and policy on riparian and freshwater management. Based on our findings, we argue that freshwater and riparian research and conservation efforts should be integrated more explicitly. Best practices for overcoming the 3 major barriers to improved conservation include more and sustainable use of traditional and other forms of local ecological knowledge, choosing appropriate metrics for ecological research and monitoring of restoration efforts, and mirroring the close links between riparian and freshwater ecosystems in legislation and policy. Integrating these 3 angles in conservation science and practice will provide substantial benefits in addressing the freshwater biodiversity crisis.

Hierarchical diversity partitioning of microscopic epibiont community on intertidal molluscan shells and inert surfaces over three geographic regions in Japan

Microscopic epibionts on molluscan shells are a component of the biodiversity of intertidal coastal areas. Because molluscan shells are discrete habitats for the epibiont community, and the molluscan basibionts belong to the local community, epibiont diversity can be evaluated hierarchically by basibiont categories including species. To evaluate the structure of epibiont diversity and effects of taxonomic resolution on the evaluation, epibionts on molluscan shells and inert surfaces were investigated at three geographically distant sites in Japan. In total, 94 species-level taxonomic units of epibionts were obtained from 31 basibiont molluscan species and inert surfaces (plastics and rock chips). The density and the species richness at the site of the lowest latitude were significantly lower than those at the other sites. The epibiont community differed between the three sites, although the major portion of the epibionts were diatoms. Between-site diversity contributed most of the total diversity of the species richness and Simpson diversity in the five levels of the hierarchical partitioning: sample (individual basibiont), basibiont species (molluscan species), surface group (bivalves, chitons + limpets, and globose gastropods), site, and the total. The taxonomic resolution did not markedly affect the variability of communities between the three sites, although the taxon richness was reduced to 51 in the genus-level analysis. The lower taxonomic resolution (genus level); however, increased the contribution of the within-sample and decreased the contribution of β diversities at the higher hierarchies, leading to a possible overestimation of biotic homogenization between the communities.

Climate-driven shifts in the diversity of plants in the Neotropical seasonally dry forest: Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas

Given the current environmental crisis, biodiversity protection is one of the most urgent socio-environmental priorities. However, the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), the primary strategy for safeguarding ecosystems, is challenged by global climate change (GCC), with evidence showing that species are shifting their distributions into new areas, causing novel species assemblages. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate PAs' present and future effectiveness for biodiversity under the GCC. Here, we analyzed changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity (PD) of plants associated with the Neotropical seasonally dry forest (NSDF) under GCC scenarios. We modeled the climatic niche of over 1000 plant species in five representative families (in terms of abundance, dominance, and endemism) of the NSDF. We predicted their potential distributions in the present and future years (2040, 2060, and 2080) based on an intermediate scenario of shared socio-economic pathways (SSP 3.70), allowing species to disperse to new sites or constrained to the current distribution. Then, we tested if the current PAs network represents the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities. Our results suggest that GCC could promote novel species assemblages with local responses (communities' modifications) across the biome. In general, models predicted losses in the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities of all the five plant families analyzed across the distribution of the NSDF. However, in the northern floristic groups (i.e., Antilles and Mesoamerica) of the NSDF, taxonomic and PD will be stable in GCC projections. In contrast, across the NSDF in South America, some cores will lose diversity while others will gain diversity under GCC scenarios. PAs in some NSDF regions appeared insufficient to protect the NSDF diversity. Thus, there is an urgent need to assess how the PA system could be better reconfigured to warrant the protection of the NSDF.

Hill-Chao numbers allow decomposing gamma multifunctionality into alpha and beta components

Biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) research has provided strong evidence and mechanistic underpinnings to support positive effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning, from single to multiple functions. This research has provided knowledge gained mainly at the local alpha scale (i.e. within ecosystems), but the increasing homogenization of landscapes in the Anthropocene has raised the potential that declining biodiversity at the beta (across ecosystems) and gamma scales is likely to also impact ecosystem functioning. Drawing on biodiversity theory, we propose a new statistical framework based on Hill-Chao numbers. The framework allows decomposition of multifunctionality at gamma scales into alpha and beta components, a critical but hitherto missing tool in BEF research; it also allows weighting of individual ecosystem functions. Through the proposed decomposition, new BEF results for beta and gamma scales are discovered. Our novel approach is applicable across ecosystems and connects local- and landscape-scale BEF assessments from experiments to natural settings.

Balanced biogeographic and local environmental effects determine the patterns of microbial diversity in biocrusts at multi-scales

Introduction

Biodiversity maintenance and its underlying mechanisms are central issues of ecology. However, predicting the composition turnovers of microbial communities at multiple spatial scales remains greatly challenging because they are obscured by the inconsistent impacts of climatic and local edaphic conditions on the assembly process.

Methods

Based on the Illumina MeSeq 16S/18S rRNA sequencing technology, we investigated soil bacterial and eukaryotic communities in biocrusts with different successional levels at a subcontinental scale of Northern China.

Results

Results showed that irrespective of spatial scale, bacterial α diversity increased but eukaryotic diversity decreased with the primary succession, whereas both β diversities decreased at the subcontinental scale compared with smaller scales, indicating that the biogeographic pattern of soil microorganisms was balanced by successional convergence and distance decay effect. We found that the convergence of bacterial and eukaryotic communities was attributed to the turnovers of generalist and specialist species, respectively. In this process, edaphic and climatic factors showed unique roles in the changes of diversity at local/subcontinental scales. Moreover, the taxonomic diversity tended to be more susceptible to climatic and edaphic conditions, while biotic factors (photosynthesis and pigments) were more important to phylogenetic diversity.

Conclusion

Taken together, our study provided comprehensive insights into understanding the pattern of microbial diversity at multiple spatial scales of drylands.

Widespread shifts in body size within populations and assemblages

Biotic responses to global change include directional shifts in organismal traits. Body size, an integrative trait that determines demographic rates and ecosystem functions, is thought to be shrinking in the Anthropocene. Here, we assessed the prevalence of body size change in six taxon groups across 5025 assemblage time series spanning 1960 to 2020. Using the Price equation to partition this change into within-species body size versus compositional changes, we detected prevailing decreases in body size through time driven primarily by fish, with more variable patterns in other taxa. We found that change in assemblage composition contributes more to body size changes than within-species trends, but both components show substantial variation in magnitude and direction. The biomass of assemblages remains quite stable as decreases in body size trade off with increases in abundance.

Looking back on biodiversity change: lessons for the road ahead

Estimating biodiversity change across the planet in the context of widespread human modification is a critical challenge. Here, we review how biodiversity has changed in recent decades across scales and taxonomic groups, focusing on four diversity metrics: species richness, temporal turnover, spatial beta-diversity and abundance. At local scales, change across all metrics includes many examples of both increases and declines and tends to be centred around zero, but with higher prevalence of declining trends in beta-diversity (increasing similarity in composition across space or biotic homogenization) and abundance. The exception to this pattern is temporal turnover, with changes in species composition through time observed in most local assemblages. Less is known about change at regional scales, although several studies suggest that increases in richness are more prevalent than declines. Change at the global scale is the hardest to estimate accurately, but most studies suggest extinction rates are probably outpacing speciation rates, although both are elevated. Recognizing this variability is essential to accurately portray how biodiversity change is unfolding, and highlights how much remains unknown about the magnitude and direction of multiple biodiversity metrics at different scales. Reducing these blind spots is essential to allow appropriate management actions to be deployed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Elevated compositional change in plant assemblages linked to invasion

Alien species are widely linked to biodiversity change, but the extent to which they are associated with the reshaping of ecological communities is not well understood. One possible mechanism is that assemblages where alien species are found exhibit elevated temporal turnover. To test this, we identified assemblages of vascular plants in the BioTIME database for those assemblages in which alien species are either present or absent and used the Jaccard measure to compute compositional dissimilarity between consecutive censuses. We found that, although alien species are typically rare in invaded assemblages, their presence is associated with an increase in the average rate of compositional change. These differences in compositional change between invaded and uninvaded assemblages are not linked to differences in species richness but rather to species replacement (turnover). Rapid compositional restructuring of assemblages is a major contributor to biodiversity change, and as such, our results suggest a role for alien species in bringing this about.

Quantitative environmental DNA metabarcoding shows high potential as a novel approach to quantitatively assess fish community

The simultaneous conservation of species richness and evenness is important to effectively reduce biodiversity loss and keep ecosystem health. Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding has been used as a powerful tool for identifying community composition, but it does not necessarily provide quantitative information due to several methodological limitations. Thus, the quantification of eDNA through metabarcoding is an important frontier of eDNA-based biomonitoring. Particularly, the qMiSeq approach has recently been developed as a quantitative metabarcoding method and has attracted much attention due to its usefulness. The aim here was to evaluate the performance of the qMiSeq approach as a quantitative monitoring tool for fish communities by comparing the quantified eDNA concentrations with the results of fish capture surveys. The eDNA water sampling and the capture surveys using the electrical shocker were conducted at a total of 21 sites in four rivers in Japan. As a result, we found significant positive relationships between the eDNA concentrations of each species quantified by qMiSeq and both the abundance and biomass of each captured taxon at each site. Furthermore, for seven out of eleven taxa, a significant positive relationship was observed between quantified DNA concentrations by sample and the abundance and/or biomass. In total, our results demonstrated that eDNA metabarcoding with the qMiSeq approach is a suitable and useful tool for quantitative monitoring of fish communities. Due to the simplicity of the eDNA analysis, the eDNA metabarcoding with qMiSeq approach would promote further growth of quantitative monitoring of biodiversity.

BetaBayes—A Bayesian Approach for Comparing Ecological Communities

Ecological communities change because of both natural and human factors. Distinguishing between the two is critical to ecology and conservation science. One of the most common approaches for modelling species composition changes is calculating beta diversity indices and then relating index changes to environmental changes. The main difficulty with these analyses is that beta diversity indices are paired comparisons, which means indices calculated with the same community are not independent. Mantel tests and generalised dissimilarity modelling (GDM) are two of the most commonly used statistical procedures for analysing such data, employing randomisation tests to consider the data’s dependence. Here, we introduce a Bayesian model-based approach called BetaBayes that explicitly incorporates the data dependence. This approach is based on the Bradley–Terry model, which is a widely used approach for modelling paired comparisons that involves building a standard regression model containing two varying intercepts, one for each community involved in the beta diversity index, that capture their respective contributions. We used BetaBayes to analyse a famous dataset collected in Panama that contains information on multiple 1 ha plots from the rain forests of Panama. We calculated the Bray–Curtis index between all pairs of plots, analysed the relationship between the index and two covariates (geographic distance and elevation), and compared the results of BetaBayes with those from the Mantel test and GDM. BetaBayes has two distinctive features. The first is its flexibility, which allows the user to quickly change it to fit the data structure; namely, by adding varying effects, incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and modelling complex nonlinear relationships. The second is that it provides a clear path for performing model validation and model improvement. BetaBayes avoids hypothesis testing, instead focusing on recreating the data generating process and quantifying all the model configurations that are consistent with the observed data.

Different temporal trends in vascular plant and bryophyte communities along elevational gradients over four decades

Despite many studies showing biodiversity responses to warming, the generality of such responses across taxonomic groups remains unclear. Very few studies have tested for evidence of bryophyte community responses to warming, even though bryophytes are major contributors to diversity and functioning in many ecosystems. Here, we report an empirical study comparing long-term change in bryophyte and vascular plant communities in two sites with contrasting long-term warming trends, using "legacy" botanical records as a baseline for comparison with contemporary resurveys. We hypothesized that ecological changes would be greater in sites with a stronger warming trend and that vascular plant communities, with narrower climatic niches, would be more sensitive than bryophyte communities to climate warming. For each taxonomic group in each site, we quantified the magnitude of changes in species' distributions along the elevation gradient, species richness, and community composition. We found contrasted temporal changes in bryophyte vs. vascular plant communities, which only partially supported the warming hypothesis. In the area with a stronger warming trend, we found a significant increase in local diversity and dissimilarity (β-diversity) for vascular plants, but not for bryophytes. Presence-absence data did not provide sufficient power to detect elevational shifts in species distributions. The patterns observed for bryophytes are in accordance with recent literature showing that local diversity can remain unchanged despite strong changes in composition. Regardless of whether one taxon is systematically more or less sensitive to environmental change than another, our results suggest that vascular plants cannot be used as a surrogate for bryophytes in terms of predicting the nature and magnitude of responses to warming. Thus, to assess overall biodiversity responses to global change, abundance data from different taxonomic groups and different community properties need to be synthesized.

Decadal biodiversity trends in rivers reveal recent community rearrangements

While it is recognized that biodiversity currently declines at a global scale, we still have an incomplete understanding of local biodiversity trends under global change. To address this deficiency, we examined the recent decadal trends in water quality and biodiversity (taxonomic and functional) of key river organisms (diatoms, macroinvertebrates and fish) in France. We implemented regression, RLQ and fourth-corner analyses. Our results showed that nutrient loads tended to decrease, diatom richness tended to decline and macoinvertebrate richness tended to increase. The recovery of sensitive taxa in all three groups suggested a successful outcome of water quality management in France over the past decades. Our study further revealed consistent rearrangements within river communities, with a decrease in the ratio of planktonic to benthic diatoms, and corresponding functional changes in macroinvertebrate and fish trait composition, indicative of a trophic cascade in response to changes in environmental conditions.

Numerical abundance and biomass reveal different temporal trends of functional diversity change in tropical fish assemblages

Understanding how the biodiversity of freshwater fish assemblages changes over time is an important challenge. Until recently most emphasis has been on taxonomic diversity, but it is now clear that measures of functional diversity (FD) can shed new light on the mechanisms that underpin this temporal change. Fish biologists use different currencies, such as numerical abundance and biomass, to measure the abundance of fish species. Nonetheless, because they are not necessarily equivalent, these alternative currencies have the potential to reveal different insights into trends of FD in natural assemblages. In this study, the authors asked how conclusions about temporal trends in FD are influenced by the way in which the abundance of species has been quantified. To do this, the authors computed two informative metrics, for each currency, for 16 freshwater fish assemblages in Trinidad's Northern Range that had been surveyed repeatedly over 5 years. The authors found that numerical abundance and biomass uncover different directional trends in these assemblages for each facet of FD, and as such inform hypotheses about the ways in which these systems are being restructured. On the basis of these results, the authors concluded that a combined approach, in which both currencies are used, contributes to our understanding of the ecological processes that are involved in biodiversity change in freshwater fish assemblages.

Land cover alteration shifts ecological assembly processes in floodplain lakes: Consequences for fish community dynamics

Habitat degradation is expected to alter community structure and consequently, ecosystem functions including the maintenance of biodiversity. Understanding the underlying abiotic and biotic assembly mechanisms controlling temporal and spatial community structure and patterns is a central issue in biodiversity conservation. In this study, using monthly time series of fish abundance data collected over a three-year period, we compared the temporal community dynamics in natural habitats and poplar plantations in one of the largest river-lake floodplain ecosystems in China, the Dongting Lake. We found a prevailing strong positive species covariance, i.e. species abundance changes in the same way, in all communities that was significantly negatively impacted by higher water nutrient levels. In contrast to species covariance, community stability, which was measured by the average of aggregated abundance divided by temporal standard deviation, was significantly higher in poplar plantations than in natural habitats. The positive species covariance, which was consistent for both wet and dry years and among habitat types, had significantly negative effects on community stability. Furthermore, our results demonstrated that the ecological stochasticity (i.e. community assembly processes generating diversity patterns that are indistinguishable from random chance) was significantly higher in natural sites than in poplar plantations, suggesting that deterministic processes might control the community composition (richness and abundance) at the modified habitat through reducing species synchrony and positive species covariance observed in the natural habitats, leading to significantly lower temporal β-diversity. When combined, our results suggest that habitat modification created environmental conditions for the development of stable fish community in the highly dynamic floodplains, leading to niche-based community with lower temporal β-diversity.

Estimating the Characteristic Spatiotemporal Variation in Habitat Quality Using the InVEST Model—A Case Study from Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

The intensity of human activity, habitat loss and habitat degradation have significant impacts on biodiversity. Habitat quality plays an important role in spatial dynamics when evaluating fragmented landscapes and the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation. This study aimed to evaluate the status and characteristic variation in habitat quality to analyze the underlying factors affecting habitat quality in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Here, we applied Kendall’s rank correlation method to calculate the sensitivity of habitat types to threat factors for the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs habitat quality (InVEST-HQ) model. The spatiotemporal variation in habitat quality of the GBA in the period 1995–2015 was estimated based on the InVEST-HQ model. We analyzed the characteristic habitat quality using different ecosystem classifications and at different elevation gradients. Fractional vegetation cover, the proportion of impervious surface, population distribution and gross domestic product were included as the effect factors for habitat quality. The correlation between the effect factors and habitat quality was analyzed using Pearson’s correlation tests. The results showed that the spatial pattern of habitat quality decreased from fringe areas to central areas in the GBA, that the forest ecosystem had the highest value of habitat quality, and that habitat quality increased with elevation. In the period from 1995 to 2015, habitat quality declined markedly and this could be related to vegetation loss, land use change and intensity of human activity. Built-up land expansion and forest land fragmentation were clear markers of land use change. This study has great significance as an operational approach to mitigating the tradeoff between natural environment conservation and rapid economic development.

What's hot and what's not: Making sense of biodiversity 'hotspots'

Conserving biogeographic regions with especially high biodiversity, known as biodiversity 'hotspots', is intuitive because finite resources can be focussed towards manageable units. Yet, biodiversity, environmental conditions and their relationship are more complex with multidimensional properties. Assessments which ignore this risk failing to detect change, identify its direction or gauge the scale of appropriate intervention. Conflicting concepts which assume assemblages as either sharply delineated communities or loosely collected species have also hampered progress in the way we assess and conserve biodiversity. We focus on the marine benthos where delineating manageable areas for conservation is an attractive prospect because it holds most marine species and constitutes the largest single ecosystem on earth by area. Using two large UK marine benthic faunal datasets, we present a spatially gridded data sampling design to account for survey effects which would otherwise be the principal drivers of diversity estimates. We then assess γ-diversity (regional richness) with diversity partitioned between α (local richness) and β (dissimilarity), and their change in relation to covariates to test whether defining and conserving biodiversity hotspots is an effective conservation strategy in light of the prevailing forces structuring those assemblages. α-, β- and γ-diversity hotspots were largely inconsistent with each metric relating uniquely to the covariates, and loosely collected species generally prevailed with relatively few distinct assemblages. Hotspots could therefore be an unreliable means to direct conservation efforts if based on only a component part of diversity. When assessed alongside environmental gradients, α-, β- and γ-diversity provide a multidimensional but still intuitive perspective of biodiversity change that can direct conservation towards key drivers and the appropriate scale for intervention. Our study also highlights possible temporal declines in species richness over 30 years and thus the need for future integrated monitoring to reveal the causal drivers of biodiversity change.

DNA-Based Arthropod Diversity Assessment in Amazonian Iron Mine Lands Show Ecological Succession Towards Undisturbed Reference Sites

Human activities change natural landscapes, and in doing so endanger biodiversity and associated ecosystem services. To reduce the net impacts of these activities, such as mining, disturbed areas are rehabilitated and restored. During this process, monitoring is important to ensure that desired trajectories are maintained. In the Carajás region of the Brazilian Amazon, exploration for iron ores has transformed the original ecosystem; natural forest and a savanna formation with lateritic iron duricrust outcrops named canga. Here, native vegetation is logged and topsoil removed and deposited in waste piles along with mine waste. During rehabilitation, these waste piles are hydroseeded with non-native plant species to achieve rapid revegetation. Further, seeds of native canga and forest plant species are planted to point ecological succession towards natural ecosystems. In this study, we investigate diversity and composition of the arthropod community along a post-mining rehabilitation and restoration gradient, taking seasonality and primer bias into account. We use DNA metabarcoding of bulk arthropod samples collected in both the dry and rainy seasons from waste-pile benches at various stages of revegetation: non-revegetated exposed soils, initial stage with one-to-three-year-old stands, intermediate stage with four-to-five-year-old stands, and advanced stage with six-to-seven-year-old stands. We use samples from undisturbed cangas and forests as reference sites. In addition, we vegetation diversity and structure were measured to investigate relations between arthropod community and vegetation structure. Our results show that, over time, the arthropod community composition of the waste piles becomes more similar to the reference forests, but not to the reference cangas. Nevertheless, even the communities in the advanced-stage waste piles are different from the reference forests, and full restoration in these highly diverse ecosystems is not achieved, even after 6 to 7 years. Finally, our results show seasonal variation in arthropod communities and primer bias.

Dispersal-induced instability in complex ecosystems

In his seminal work in the 1970s, Robert May suggested that there is an upper limit to the number of species that can be sustained in stable equilibrium by an ecosystem. This deduction was at odds with both intuition and the observed complexity of many natural ecosystems. The so-called stability-diversity debate ensued, and the discussion about the factors contributing to ecosystem stability or instability continues to this day. We show in this work that dispersal can be a destabilising influence. To do this, we combine ideas from Alan Turing's work on pattern formation with May's random-matrix approach. We demonstrate how a stable equilibrium in a complex ecosystem with trophic structure can become unstable with the introduction of dispersal in space, and we discuss the factors which contribute to this effect. Our work highlights that adding more details to the model of May can give rise to more ways for an ecosystem to become unstable. Making May's simple model more realistic is therefore unlikely to entirely remove the upper bound on complexity.

The role of connectivity in the interplay between climate change and the spread of alien fish in a large Mediterranean river

Understanding how global change and connectivity will jointly modify the distribution of riverine species is crucial for conservation biology and environmental management. However, little is known about the interaction between climate change and fragmentation and how movement barriers might impede native species from adjusting their distributions versus limit the further spread of alien species. In this study, we modelled the current and future distributions of 11 native and five alien fishes in the large and heavily fragmented Ebro River, located within the Mediterranean region, which has many freshwater endemics severely threatened by global change. We considered 10 climate change models and five modelling algorithms and assessed the effects of connectivity on the accessibility of future suitable habitats. Thereby, we identify most conflict-prone river reaches, that is, where barriers pose a particular trade-off between isolating and negatively impacting native species versus potentially reducing the risk of alien species spread. Our results projected upstream habitat shifts for the vast majority of the species. Climate change affected species differently, with alien species generally showing larger habitat gains compared to natives. Most pronounced distributional changes (i.e. losses of native species and gains of alien species) and compositional turnover might be expected in the lower and mid reaches of large tributaries of the Ebro River. The role of anthropogenic barriers in this context is often ambiguous but rather unfavourable, as they not only restrict native fishes but also alter stream habitats and flow conditions. However, with our spatial modelling framework, we could identify specific river reaches where the connectivity trade-off in the context of climate change is particularly relevant. Overall, our findings emphasize the importance of the complex effects that climate change, riverine connectivity and alien species are expected to impose on river communities and the urgent need to adapt management strategies accordingly.

Niche divergence of evolutionarily significant units with implications for repopulation programs of the world's largest amphibians

The niche divergence and potential climate change-induced loss of evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) of flagship amphibian species in China, the Chinese giant salamander clade, were investigated. We tested niche-related ecological hypotheses and identified suitable habitats that are essential for the conservation of ESUs in response to future climate change according to ecological niche models (ENMs). We predicted the localized habitat loss crisis of ESUs induced by global climate heating using the predicted climate derived from two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. In our study, a niche conservatism pattern was found between the two distinctive northern and southern ESUs with sufficient distributional records, but their niches were not equivalent. Furthermore, there was neither abrupt environmental change in nor remarkable biogeographic barriers between the suitable habitats of the species, as indicated by random linear, blob and ribbon range-breaking tests. Under the low-emission scenario RCP2.6, the northern ESU had a moderate loss of suitable range, while the southern ESU had range expansion in the 2070s. The climatic velocities were low in the ranges of both ESUs. However, under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5, the climatic velocities were found to become larger in the suitable ranges of both ESUs. Moreover, the northern ESU had severe habitat loss, bringing it to the edge of extinction, while the southern ESU also had intensified range loss. Considering this, climatic velocity can be an effective indicator of range loss. We argued conclusively that conservation prioritization of ESUs should effectively take into account the underlying geographic and ecological mechanisms driving the speciation process. The conservation of ESUs should consider the conservation of both evolutionary potential and ecological adaptation capacity of each lineage. The present study provided practical guidelines for repopulation programs for endangered species and the conservation of evolutionary diversity.

Functional differentiation accompanies taxonomic homogenization in freshwater fish communities

The addition of nonnative species and loss of native species has modified the composition of communities globally. Although changes in β-diversity have been well documented, there is a need for studies incorporating multiple time periods, more than one dimension of biodiversity, and inclusion of nestedness and turnover components to understand the underlying mechanisms structuring community composition and assembly. Here, we examined temporal changes in functional dissimilarity of fish communities of the Laurentian Great Lakes and compared these changes to those of taxonomic dissimilarity by decade from 1870 to 2010. Jaccard-derived functional dissimilarity index was used to quantify changes in functional β-diversity within communities, between all possible pairs of communities, and using a multiple-site index among all communities. β-diversity was partitioned into components of nestedness and turnover, and changes were examined over time. Similar to patterns in taxonomic dissimilarity, each community functionally differentiated from the historical community of 1870, with Lake Superior changing the most (~24%) and Lake Ontario the least (~14%). Although communities have become taxonomically homogenized, functional β-diversity among all communities has increased over time, indicating functional differentiation. This is likely due to functional similarity between the communities being historically high (i.e., ~88% similar in 1870). The higher taxonomic relative to functional turnover indicates that the species being replaced between communities are functionally redundant, which could occur given the harsh environmental conditions of the region and/or as a result of the recent glacial history of the region. High functional nestedness across communities reflects dispersal limitations, with smaller communities being functional subsets of large communities closer to source populations. The functional differentiation observed is likely due to nonnative species with functional traits unique to the region establishing or the loss of functionally redundant native species; however, it is important to note that patterns of homogenization were periodically observed through time. Our study demonstrates the possible factors regulating diversity in the Laurentian Great Lakes fish communities, that patterns of taxonomic and functional β-diversity are dynamic over time and vary in the magnitude and direction of change, and that taxonomic diversity should not be used to predict changes in functional diversity.

Landscape-scale forest loss as a catalyst of population and biodiversity change

Global biodiversity assessments have highlighted land-use change as a key driver of biodiversity change. However, there is little empirical evidence of how habitat transformations such as forest loss and gain are reshaping biodiversity over time. We quantified how change in forest cover has influenced temporal shifts in populations and ecological assemblages from 6090 globally distributed time series across six taxonomic groups. We found that local-scale increases and decreases in abundance, species richness, and temporal species replacement (turnover) were intensified by as much as 48% after forest loss. Temporal lags in population- and assemblage-level shifts after forest loss extended up to 50 years and increased with species' generation time. Our findings that forest loss catalyzes population and biodiversity change emphasize the complex biotic consequences of land-use change.

Top predator reveals the stability of prey community in the western subarctic Pacific

The stability of the ecosystems depends on the dynamics of the prey community, but changes in the composition and abundance of prey species are poorly understood, especially in open ocean ecosystems. We used neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii, an active top predator, as a biological sampler to investigate the dynamics of the prey community in the southwestern part of the Western Subarctic Gyre in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Squid were collected monthly from July to November 2016. There were no significant differences among months in stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) in the digestive gland, a fast turnover organ reflecting recent dietary information. Similar findings were obtained from analyses of isotopic niche width and fatty acid profiles. The potential influence of the environment (monthly mean sea surface temperature, SST, and chlorophyll-a, Chl-a) on the prey community was examined with SST and Chl-a both varying significantly among sampling months. We found little evidence for significant effects of SST and Chl-a on the isotopic values, nor on the fatty acid profiles except for 20:4n6 and 24:1n9. These lines of evidence indicate that the prey community in the southwestern part of the gyre remains stable, with little evidence for systematic changes at the community level. This study provides a novel understanding of the dynamics of the prey community and highlights the use of top predators to study the trophic dynamics of an oceanic system where a long-term scientific survey is unavailable.

Species turnover reveals hidden effects of decreasing nitrogen deposition in mountain hay meadows

Nitrogen (N) deposition is a major threat to biodiversity in many habitats. The recent introduction of cleaner technologies in Switzerland has led to a reduction in the emissions of nitrogen oxides, with a consequent decrease in N deposition. We examined different drivers of plant community change, that is, N deposition, climate warming, and land-use change, in Swiss mountain hay meadows, using data from the Swiss biodiversity monitoring program. We compared indicator values of species that disappeared from or colonized a site (species turnover) with the indicator values of randomly chosen species from the same site. While oligotrophic plant species were more likely to colonize, compared to random expectation, we found only weak shifts in plant community composition. In particular, the average nutrient value of plant communities remained stable over time (2003-2017). We found the largest deviations from random expectation in the nutrient values of colonizing species, suggesting that N deposition or other factors that change the nutrient content of soils were important drivers of the species composition change over the last 15 years in Swiss mountain hay meadows. In addition, we observed an overall replacement of species with lower indicator values for temperature with species with higher values. Apparently, the community effects of the replacement of eutrophic species with oligotrophic species was outweighed by climate warming. Our results add to the increasing evidence that plant communities in changing environments may be relatively stable regarding average species richness or average indicator values, but that this apparent stability is often accompanied by a marked turnover of species.

More than the sum of the parts: annual partitioning within spatial guilds underpins community regulation

To withstand the pressures of a rapidly changing world, resilient ecosystems should exhibit compensatory dynamics, including uncorrelated temporal shifts in population sizes. The observation that diversity is maintained through time in many systems is evidence that communities are indeed regulated and stabilized, yet empirical observations suggest that positive covariance in species abundances is widespread. This paradox could be resolved if communities are composed of a number of ecologically relevant sub-units in which the members compete for resources, but whose abundances fluctuate independently. Such modular organization could explain community regulation, even when the community as a whole appears synchronized. To test this hypothesis, we quantified temporal synchronicity in annual population abundances within spatial guilds in an estuarine fish assemblage that has been monitored for 36 years. We detected independent fluctuations in annual abundances within guilds. By contrast, the assemblage as a whole exhibited temporal synchronicity-an outcome linked to the dynamics of guild dominants, which were synchronized with each other. These findings underline the importance of modularity in explaining community regulation and highlight the need to protect assemblage composition and structure as well as species richness.