Schrödinger's Range-Shifting Cat: How Skewed Temperature Dependence Impacts Persistence with Climate Change

AbstractThe majority of species display strongly asymmetric responses to climatic variables, yet most analytic models used to investigate how species will respond to climate change assume symmetric responses, with largely unknown consequences. Applying a known mapping of population dynamical equations onto corresponding well-studied problems from quantum mechanics, we extend analytical results to incorporate this asymmetry. We derive expressions in terms of parameters representing climate velocity, dispersal rate, maximum growth rate, niche width, high-frequency climate variability, and environmental performance curve skew for three key responses: (1) population persistence, (2) lag between range displacement and climate displacement, and (3) location of maximum population sensitivity. We find that asymmetry impacts these climate change responses, but surprisingly, under our model assumptions, the direction (i.e., warm skewed or cool skewed) of performance curve asymmetry does not strongly contribute to either persistence or lags. Conservation measures to support range-shifting populations may have most benefit near their environmental optimum or where the environmental dependence is shallow, irrespective of whether this is the leading or trailing edge. A metapopulation simulation corroborates our results. Our results shed fresh light on how key features of a species' environmental performance curve can impact its response to climate change.

Steeper size spectra with decreasing phytoplankton biomass indicate strong trophic amplification and future fish declines

Under climate change, model ensembles suggest that declines in phytoplankton biomass amplify into greater reductions at higher trophic levels, with serious implications for fisheries and carbon storage. However, the extent and mechanisms of this trophic amplification vary greatly among models, and validation is problematic. In situ size spectra offer a novel alternative, comparing biomass of small and larger organisms to quantify the net efficiency of energy transfer through natural food webs that are already challenged with multiple climate change stressors. Our global compilation of pelagic size spectrum slopes supports trophic amplification empirically, independently from model simulations. Thus, even a modest (16%) decline in phytoplankton this century would magnify into a 38% decline in supportable biomass of fish within the intensively-fished mid-latitude ocean. We also show that this amplification stems not from thermal controls on consumers, but mainly from temperature or nutrient controls that structure the phytoplankton baseline of the food web. The lack of evidence for direct thermal effects on size structure contrasts with most current thinking, based often on more acute stress experiments or shorter-timescale responses. Our synthesis of size spectra integrates these short-term dynamics, revealing the net efficiency of food webs acclimating and adapting to climatic stressors.

Community composition exceeds area as a predictor of long-term conservation value

Conserving biodiversity often requires deciding which sites to prioritise for protection. Predicting the impact of habitat loss is a major challenge, however, since impacts can be distant from the perturbation in both space and time. Here we study the long-term impacts of habitat loss in a mechanistic metacommunity model. We find that site area is a poor predictor of long-term, regional-scale extinctions following localised perturbation. Knowledge of the compositional distinctness (average between-site Bray-Curtis dissimilarity) of the removed community can markedly improve the prediction of impacts on regional assemblages, even when biotic responses play out at substantial spatial or temporal distance from the initial perturbation. Fitting the model to two empirical datasets, we show that this conclusions holds in the empirically relevant parameter range. Our results robustly demonstrate that site area alone is not sufficient to gauge conservation priorities; analysis of compositional distinctness permits improved prioritisation at low cost.

Evolution of prudent predation in complex food webs

Prudent predators catch sufficient prey to sustain their populations but not as much as to undermine their populations' survival. The idea that predators evolve to be prudent has been dismissed in the 1970s, but the arguments invoked then are untenable in the light of modern evolution theory. The evolution of prudent predation has repeatedly been demonstrated in two-species predator-prey metacommunity models. However, the vigorous population fluctuations that these models predict are not widely observed. Here we show that in complex model food webs prudent predation evolves as a result of consumer-mediated ('apparent') competitive exclusion of resources, which disadvantages aggressive consumers and does not generate such fluctuations. We make testable predictions for empirical signatures of this mechanism and its outcomes. Then we discuss how these predictions are borne out across freshwater, marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Demonstrating explanatory power of evolved prudent predation well beyond the question of predator-prey coexistence, the predicted signatures explain unexpected declines of invasive alien species, the shape of stock-recruitment relations of fish, and the clearance rates of pelagic consumers across the latitudinal gradient and 15 orders of magnitude in body mass. Specific research to further test this theory is proposed.

Intrinsic ecological dynamics drive biodiversity turnover in model metacommunities

Turnover of species composition through time is frequently observed in ecosystems. It is often interpreted as indicating the impact of changes in the environment. Continuous turnover due solely to ecological dynamics-species interactions and dispersal-is also known to be theoretically possible; however the prevalence of such autonomous turnover in natural communities remains unclear. Here we demonstrate that observed patterns of compositional turnover and other important macroecological phenomena can be reproduced in large spatially explicit model ecosystems, without external forcing such as environmental change or the invasion of new species into the model. We find that autonomous turnover is triggered by the onset of ecological structural instability-the mechanism that also limits local biodiversity. These results imply that the potential role of autonomous turnover as a widespread and important natural process is underappreciated, challenging assumptions implicit in many observation and management tools. Quantifying the baseline level of compositional change would greatly improve ecological status assessments.

Dome patterns in pelagic size spectra reveal strong trophic cascades

In ecological communities, especially the pelagic zones of aquatic ecosystems, certain body-size ranges are often over-represented compared to others. Community size spectra, the distributions of community biomass over the logarithmic body-mass axis, tend to exhibit regularly spaced local maxima, called “domes”, separated by steep troughs. Contrasting established theory, we explain these dome patterns as manifestations of top-down trophic cascades along aquatic food chains. Compiling high quality size-spectrum data and comparing these with a size-spectrum model introduced in this study, we test this theory and develop a detailed picture of the mechanisms by which bottom-up and top-down effects interact to generate dome patterns. Results imply that strong top-down trophic cascades are common in freshwater communities, much more than hitherto demonstrated, and may arise in nutrient rich marine systems as well. Transferring insights from the general theory of non-linear pattern formation to domes patterns, we provide new interpretations of past lake-manipulation experiments.

An important question in ecology is how much species at higher trophic levels affect lower levels through top-down cascades. Here the authors show through analyses of pelagic size spectra that such cascades are strong in freshwater systems and can also arise in nutrient rich marine systems.

Quantitative criteria for choosing targets and indicators for sustainable use of ecosystems

Wide-ranging, indicator-based assessments of large, complex ecosystems are playing an increasing role in guiding environmental policy and management. An example is the EU's Marine Strategy Framework Directive, which requires Member States to take measures to reach "good environmental status" (GES) in European marine waters. However, formulation of indicator targets consistent with the Directive's high-level policy goal of sustainable use has proven challenging. We develop a specific, quantitative interpretation of the concepts of GES and sustainable use in terms of indicators and associated targets, by sharply distinguishing between current uses to satisfy current societal needs and preferences, and unknown future uses. We argue that consistent targets to safeguard future uses derive from a requirement that any environmental state indicator should recover within a defined time (e.g. 30 years) to its pressure-free range of variation when all pressures are hypothetically removed. Within these constraints, specific targets for current uses should be set. Routes to implementation of this proposal for indicators of fish-community size structure, population size of selected species, eutrophication, impacts of non-indigenous species, and genetic diversity are discussed. Important policy implications are that (a) indicator target ranges, which may be wider than natural ranges, systematically and rationally derive from our proposal; (b) because relevant state indicators tend to respond slowly, corresponding pressures should also be monitored and assessed;

Contrasting changes in the abundance and diversity of North American bird assemblages from 1971 to 2010

Although it is generally recognized that global biodiversity is declining, few studies have examined long-term changes in multiple biodiversity dimensions simultaneously. In this study, we quantified and compared temporal changes in the abundance, taxonomic diversity, functional diversity, and phylogenetic diversity of bird assemblages, using roadside monitoring data of the North American Breeding Bird Survey from 1971 to 2010. We calculated 12 abundance and diversity metrics based on 5-year average abundances of 519 species for each of 768 monitoring routes. We did this for all bird species together as well as for four subgroups based on breeding habitat affinity (grassland, woodland, wetland, and shrubland breeders). The majority of the biodiversity metrics increased or remained constant over the study period, whereas the overall abundance of birds showed a pronounced decrease, primarily driven by declines of the most abundant species. These results highlight how stable or even increasing metrics of taxonomic, functional, or phylogenetic diversity may occur in parallel with substantial losses of individuals. We further found that patterns of change differed among the species subgroups, with both abundance and diversity increasing for woodland birds and decreasing for grassland breeders. The contrasting changes between abundance and diversity and among the breeding habitat groups underscore the relevance of a multifaceted approach to measuring biodiversity change. Our findings further stress the importance of monitoring the overall abundance of individuals in addition to metrics of taxonomic, functional, or phylogenetic diversity, thus confirming the importance of population abundance as an essential biodiversity variable.

Impact of biodiversity loss on production in complex marine food webs mitigated by prey-release

Public concern over biodiversity loss is often rationalized as a threat to ecosystem functioning, but biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) relations are hard to empirically quantify at large scales. We use a realistic marine food-web model, resolving species over five trophic levels, to study how total fish production changes with species richness. This complex model predicts that BEF relations, on average, follow simple Michaelis-Menten curves when species are randomly deleted. These are shaped mainly by release of fish from predation, rather than the release from competition expected from simpler communities. Ordering species deletions by decreasing body mass or trophic level, representing 'fishing down the food web', accentuates prey-release effects and results in unimodal relationships. In contrast, simultaneous unselective harvesting diminishes these effects and produces an almost linear BEF relation, with maximum multispecies fisheries yield at ≈40% of initial species richness. These findings have important implications for the valuation of marine biodiversity.

Are there species smaller than 1 mm?

The rapid advance in genetic sequencing technologies has provided an unprecedented amount of data on the biodiversity of meiofauna. It was hoped that these data would allow the identification and counting of species, distinguished as tight clusters of similar genomes. Surprisingly, this appears not to be the case. Here, we begin a theoretical discussion of this phenomenon, drawing on an individual-based ecological model to inform our arguments. The determining factor in the emergence (or not) of distinguishable genetic clusters in the model is the product of population size with mutation rate—a measure of the adaptability of the population as a whole. This result suggests that indeed one should not expect to observe clearly distinguishable species groupings in data gathered from ultrasequencing of meiofauna.

A generalized functional response for predators that switch between multiple prey species

We develop a theory for the food intake of a predator that can switch between multiple prey species. The theory addresses empirical observations of prey switching and is based on the behavioural assumption that a predator tends to continue feeding on prey that are similar to the prey it has consumed last, in terms of, e.g., their morphology, defences, location, habitat choice, or behaviour. From a predator's dietary history and the assumed similarity relationship among prey species, we derive a general closed-form multi-species functional response for describing predators switching between multiple prey species. Our theory includes the Holling type II functional response as a special case and makes consistent predictions when populations of equivalent prey are aggregated or split. An analysis of the derived functional response enables us to highlight the following five main findings. (1) Prey switching leads to an approximate power-law relationship between ratios of prey abundance and prey intake, consistent with experimental data. (2) In agreement with empirical observations, the theory predicts an upper limit of 2 for the exponent of such power laws. (3) Our theory predicts deviations from power-law switching at very low and very high prey-abundance ratios. (4) The theory can predict the diet composition of a predator feeding on multiple prey species from diet observations for predators feeding only on pairs of prey species. (5) Predators foraging on more prey species will show less pronounced prey switching than predators foraging on fewer prey species, thus providing a natural explanation for the known difficulties of observing prey switching in the field.

Spontaneous genetic clustering in populations of competing organisms

We introduce and analyse an individual-based evolutionary model, in which a population of genetically diverse organisms compete with each other for limited resources. Through theoretical analysis and stochastic simulations, we show that the model exhibits a pattern-forming instability which is highly amplified by the effects of demographic noise, leading to the spontaneous formation of genotypic clusters. This mechanism supports the thesis that stochasticity has a central role in the formation and coherence of species.

Phylogeny versus body size as determinants of food web structure

Food webs are the complex networks of trophic interactions that stoke the metabolic fires of life. To understand what structures these interactions in natural communities, ecologists have developed simple models to capture their main architectural features. However, apparently realistic food webs can be generated by models invoking either predator-prey body-size hierarchies or evolutionary constraints as structuring mechanisms. As a result, this approach has not conclusively revealed which factors are the most important. Here we cut to the heart of this debate by directly comparing the influence of phylogeny and body size on food web architecture. Using data from 13 food webs compiled by direct observation, we confirm the importance of both factors. Nevertheless, phylogeny dominates in most networks. Moreover, path analysis reveals that the size-independent direct effect of phylogeny on trophic structure typically outweighs the indirect effect that could be captured by considering body size alone. Furthermore, the phylogenetic signal is asymmetric: closely related species overlap in their set of consumers far more than in their set of resources. This is at odds with several food web models, which take only the view-point of consumers when assigning interactions. The echo of evolutionary history clearly resonates through current food webs, with implications for our theoretical models and conservation priorities.

Universal power-law diet partitioning by marine fish and squid with surprising stability-diversity implications

A central question in community ecology is how the number of trophic links relates to community species richness. For simple dynamical food-web models, link density (the ratio of links to species) is bounded from above as the number of species increases; but empirical data suggest that it increases without bounds. We found a new empirical upper bound on link density in large marine communities with emphasis on fish and squid, using novel methods that avoid known sources of bias in traditional approaches. Bounds are expressed in terms of the diet-partitioning function (DPF): the average number of resources contributing more than a fraction f to a consumer's diet, as a function of f. All observed DPF follow a functional form closely related to a power law, with power-law exponents independent of species richness at the measurement accuracy. Results imply universal upper bounds on link density across the oceans. However, the inherently scale-free nature of power-law diet partitioning suggests that the DPF itself is a better defined characterization of network structure than link density.

Food-web structure in low- and high-dimensional trophic niche spaces

A question central to modelling and, ultimately, managing food webs concerns the dimensionality of trophic niche space, that is, the number of independent traits relevant for determining consumer-resource links. Food-web topologies can often be interpreted by assuming resource traits to be specified by points along a line and each consumer's diet to be given by resources contained in an interval on this line. This phenomenon, called intervality, has been known for 30 years and is widely acknowledged to indicate that trophic niche space is close to one-dimensional. We show that the degrees of intervality observed in nature can be reproduced in arbitrary-dimensional trophic niche spaces, provided that the processes of evolutionary diversification and adaptation are taken into account. Contrary to expectations, intervality is least pronounced at intermediate dimensions and steadily improves towards lower- and higher-dimensional trophic niche spaces.

Soil resource supply influences faunal size-specific distributions in natural food webs

The large range of body-mass values of soil organisms provides a tool to assess the ecological organization of soil communities. The goal of this paper is to identify graphical and quantitative indicators of soil community composition and ecosystem functioning, and to illustrate their application to real soil food webs. The relationships between log-transformed mass and abundance of soil organisms in 20 Dutch meadows and heathlands were investigated. Using principles of allometry, maximal use can be made of ecological theory to build and explain food webs. The aggregate contribution of small invertebrates such as nematodes to the entire community is high under low soil phosphorus content and causes shifts in the mass-abundance relationships and in the trophic structures. We show for the first time that the average of the trophic link lengths is a reliable predictor for assessing soil fertility responses. Ordered trophic link pairs suggest a self-organizing structure of food webs according to resource availability and can predict environmental shifts in ecologically meaningful ways.

Food webs: Experts consuming families of experts

Food webs of habitats as diverse as lakes or desert valleys are known to exhibit common "food-web patterns", but the detailed mechanisms generating these structures have remained unclear. By employing a stochastic, dynamical model, we show that many aspects of the structure of predatory food webs can be understood as the traces of an evolutionary history where newly evolving species avoid direct competition with their relatives. The tendency to avoid sharing natural enemies (apparent competition) with related species is considerably weaker. Thus, "experts consuming families of experts" can be identified as the main underlying food-web pattern. We report the results of a systematic, quantitative model validation showing that the model is surprisingly accurate.

Estimating trophic link density from quantitative but incomplete diet data

The trophic link density and the stability of food webs are thought to be related, but the nature of this relation is controversial. This article introduces a method for estimating the link density from diet tables which do not cover the complete food web and do not resolve all diet items to species level. A simple formula for the error of this estimate is derived. Link density is determined as a function of a threshold diet fraction below which diet items are ignored ("diet partitioning function"). Furthermore, analytic relationships between this threshold-dependent link density and the generality distribution of food webs are established. A preliminary application of the method to field data suggests that empirical results relating link density to diversity might need to be revisited.

Observation of stable phase jump lines in convection of a twisted nematic liquid crystal

We report observations of stable, localized, linelike structures in the spatially periodic pattern formed by nematic electroconvection, along which the phase of the pattern jumps by pi. With increasing electric voltage, these lines form a gridlike structure that goes over into a structure indistinguishable from the well-known grid pattern. We present theoretical arguments that suggest that the twisted cell geometry we are using is indirectly stabilizing the phase jump lines, and that the phase jump lines lattice is caused by an interaction of phase jump lines and a zig-zag instability of the surrounding pattern.

Some properties of the speciation model for food-web structure-mechanisms for degree distributions and intervality

We present a mathematical analysis of the speciation model for food-web structure, which had in previous work been shown to yield a good description of empirical data of food-web topology. The degree distributions of the network are derived. Properties of the speciation model are compared to those of other models that successfully describe empirical data. It is argued that the speciation model unifies the underlying ideas of previous theories. In particular, it offers a mechanistic explanation for the success of the niche model of Williams and Martinez and the frequent observation of intervality in empirical food webs.

Phase synchronization from noisy univariate signals

We present methods for detecting phase synchronization of two unidirectionally coupled, self-sustained noisy oscillators from a signal of the driven oscillator alone. One method detects soft phase locking; another hard phase locking. Both are applied to the problem of detecting phase synchronization in von Kármán vortex flow meters.

Data-driven optimal filtering for phase and frequency of noisy oscillations: Application to vortex flow metering

A method for measuring the phase of oscillations from noisy time series is proposed. To obtain the phase, the signal is filtered in such a way that the filter output has minimal relative variation in the amplitude over all filters with complex-valued impulse response. The argument of the filter output yields the phase. Implementation of the algorithm and interpretation of the result are discussed. We argue that the phase obtained by the proposed method has a low susceptibility to measurement noise and a low rate of artificial phase slips. The method is applied for the detection and classification of mode locking in vortex flow meters. A measure for the strength of mode locking is proposed.

Magnetic field effect on the thresholds of a sequence of transitions in the electroconvection of a homeotropic nematic liquid crystal

We present a detailed analysis of the characteristics of electroconvection patterns in a homeotropic nematic liquid crystal under the influence of a variable magnetic field. An unambiguous observation of low frequency "reentrant" normal rolls and a nonmonotonic magnetic field dependence of the threshold voltages is reported. The effect of the magnetic field on the normal roll-abnormal roll transition is determined, which is in good agreement with theoretical predictions of the weakly nonlinear analysis.

Three-dimensional pattern formation, multiple homogeneous soft modes, and nonlinear dielectric electroconvection

Patterns forming spontaneously in extended, three-dimensional, dissipative systems are likely to excite several homogeneous soft modes ( approximately hydrodynamic modes) of the underlying physical system, much more than quasi-one- (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) patterns are. The reason is the lack of damping boundaries. This paper compares two analytic techniques to derive the pattern dynamics from hydrodynamics, which are usually equivalent but lead to different results when applied to multiple homogeneous soft modes. Dielectric electroconvection in nematic liquid crystals is introduced as a model for 3D pattern formation. The 3D pattern dynamics including soft modes are derived. For slabs of large but finite thickness the description is reduced further to a 2D one. It is argued that the range of validity of 2D descriptions is limited to a very small region above threshold. The transition from 2D to 3D pattern dynamics is discussed. Experimentally testable predictions for the stable range of ideal patterns and the electric Nusselt numbers are made. For most results analytic approximations in terms of material parameters are given.

Twist localizes three-dimensional patterns

A mechanism for the localization of spatially periodic, self-organized patterns in anisotropic media which requires systems extended in all three spatial dimensions is presented: When the anisotropy axis is twisted, the pattern becomes localized in planes parallel to the anisotropy axis. An analytical description of the effect is developed, and used to interpret recent experiments in the high-frequency regime of electroconvection by Bohatsch and Stannarius [Phys. Rev. E 60, 5591 (1999)]. The localization width is found to be of the order of magnitude of the geometrical average of the pattern wavelength and the inverse twist.

Abnormal rolls and regular arrays of disclinations in homeotropic electroconvection

We present the first quantitative verification of an amplitude description for systems with (nearly) spontaneously broken isotropy, in particular for the recently discovered abnormal-roll states. We also obtain a conclusive picture of the three-dimensional director configuration in a spatial period doubling phenomenon involving disclination loops. The first observation of two Lifshitz frequencies in electroconvection is reported.