Dynamics and determinants of the force of infection of dengue virus from 1994 to 2015 in Managua, Nicaragua

Climate, demography, immunology, and virology combine to drive two decades of dengue virus dynamics in Cambodia

The incidence of dengue virus disease has increased globally across the past half-century, with highest number of cases ever reported in 2019 and again in 2023. We analyzed climatological, epidemiological, and phylogenomic data to investigate drivers of two decades of dengue in Cambodia, an understudied endemic setting. Using epidemiological models fit to a 19-y dataset, we first demonstrate that climate-driven transmission alone is insufficient to explain three epidemics across the time series. We then use wavelet decomposition to highlight enhanced annual and multiannual synchronicity in dengue cycles between provinces in epidemic years, suggesting a role for climate in homogenizing dynamics across space and time. Assuming reported cases correspond to symptomatic secondary infections, we next use an age-structured catalytic model to estimate a declining force of infection for dengue through time, which elevates the mean age of reported cases in Cambodia. Reported cases in >70-y-old individuals in the 2019 epidemic are best explained when also allowing for waning multitypic immunity and repeat symptomatic infections in older patients. We support this work with phylogenetic analysis of 192 dengue virus (DENV) genomes that we sequenced between 2019 and 2022, which document emergence of DENV-2 Cosmopolitan Genotype-II into Cambodia. This lineage demonstrates phylogenetic homogeneity across wide geographic areas, consistent with invasion behavior and in contrast to high phylogenetic diversity exhibited by endemic DENV-1. Finally, we simulate an age-structured, mechanistic model of dengue dynamics to demonstrate how expansion of an antigenically distinct lineage that evades preexisting multitypic immunity effectively reproduces the older-age infections witnessed in our data.

Increasing transmission of dengue virus across ecologically diverse regions of Ecuador and associated risk factors

The distribution and intensity of viral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, including dengue, have rapidly increased over the last century. Here, we study dengue virus (DENV) transmission across the ecologically and demographically distinct regions or Ecuador. We analyzed province-level age-stratified dengue incidence data from 2000-2019 using catalytic models to estimate the force of infection of DENV over eight decades. We found that provinces established endemic DENV transmission at different time periods. Coastal provinces with the largest and most connected cities had the earliest and highest increase in DENV transmission, starting around 1980 and continuing to the present. In contrast, remote and rural areas with reduced access, like the northern coast and the Amazon regions, experienced a rise in DENV transmission and endemicity only in the last 10 to 20 years. The newly introduced chikungunya and Zika viruses have age-specific distributions of hospital-seeking cases consistent with recent emergence across all provinces. To evaluate factors associated with geographic differences in DENV transmission potential, we modeled DENV vector risk using 11,693 Aedes aegypti presence points to the resolution of 1 hectare. In total, 56% of the population of Ecuador, including in provinces identified as having increasing DENV transmission in our models, live in areas with high risk of Aedes aegypti, with population size, trash collection, elevation, and access to water as important determinants. Our investigation serves as a case study of the changes driving the expansion of DENV and other arboviruses globally and suggest that control efforts should be expanded to semi-urban and rural areas and to historically isolated regions to counteract increasing dengue outbreaks.

Effects of boosting and waning in highly exposed populations on dengue epidemic dynamics

Sequential infection with multiple dengue virus (DENV) serotypes is thought to induce enduring protection against dengue disease. However, long-term antibody waning has been observed after repeated DENV infection. Here, we provide evidence that highly immune Nicaraguan children and adults (n = 4478) experience boosting and waning of antibodies during and after major Zika and dengue epidemics. We develop a susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS-type) model that tracks immunity by titer rather than number of infections to show that boosts in highly immune individuals can contribute to herd immunity, delaying their susceptibility to transmissible infection. In contrast, our model of lifelong immunity in highly immune individuals, as previously assumed, results in complete disease eradication after introduction. Periodic epidemics under this scenario can only be sustained with a constant influx of infected individuals into the population or a high basic reproductive number. We also find that Zika virus infection can boost DENV immunity and produce delays and then surges in dengue epidemics, as observed with real epidemiological data. This work provides insight into factors shaping periodicity in dengue incidence and may inform vaccine efforts to maintain population immunity.

Dengue in Cambodia 2002-2020: Cases, Characteristics and Capture by National Surveillance

Objective

Data from 19 years of national dengue surveillance in Cambodia (2002-2020) were analyzed to describe trends in dengue case characteristics and incidence.

Methods

Generalized additive models were fitted to dengue case incidence and characteristics (mean age, case phenotype, fatality) over time. Dengue incidence in a pediatric cohort study (2018-2020) was compared to national data during the same period to evaluate disease under-estimation by national surveillance.

Findings

During 2002-2020, there were 353,270 cases of dengue (average age-adjusted incidence 1.75 cases/1,000 persons/year) recorded in Cambodia, with an estimated 2.1-fold increase in case incidence between 2002 and 2020 (slope = 0.0058, SE = 0.0021, p = 0.006). Mean age of infected individuals increased from 5.8 years in 2002 to 9.1 years in 2020 (slope = 0.18, SE = 0.088, p <0.001); case fatality rates decreased from 1.77% in 2002 to 0.10% in 2020 (slope = -0.16, SE = 0.0050, p <0.001). When compared to cohort data, national data under-estimated clinically apparent dengue case incidence by 5.0-fold (95% CI 0.2 - 26.5), and overall dengue case incidence (both apparent and inapparent cases) by 33.6-fold (range: 18.7- 53.6).

Conclusion

Dengue incidence in Cambodia is increasing and disease is shifting to older pediatric populations. National surveillance continues to under-estimate case numbers. Future interventions should account for disease under-estimation and shifting demographics for scaling and to target appropriate age groups.

Dengue and COVID-19: two sides of the same coin

BACKGROUND

Many countries in Asia and Latin America are currently facing a double burden of outbreaks due to dengue and COVID-19. Here we discuss the similarities and differences between the two infections so that lessons learnt so far from studying both infections will be helpful in further understanding their immunopathogenesis and to develop therapeutic interventions.

MAIN BODY

Although the entry routes of the SARS-CoV-2 and the dengue virus (DENV) are different, both infections result in a systemic infection, with some similar clinical presentations such as fever, headache, myalgia and gastrointestinal symptoms. However, while dengue is usually associated with a tendency to bleed, development of micro and macrothrombi is a hallmark of severe COVID-19. Apart from the initial similarities in the clinical presentation, there are further similarities between such as risk factors for development of severe illness, cytokine storms, endothelial dysfunction and multi-organ failure. Both infections are characterised by a delayed and impaired type I IFN response and a proinflammatory immune response. Furthermore, while high levels of potent neutralising antibodies are associated with protection, poorly neutralising and cross-reactive antibodies have been proposed to lead to immunopathology by different mechanisms, associated with an exaggerated plasmablast response. The virus specific T cell responses are also shown to be delayed in those who develop severe illness, while varying degrees of endothelial dysfunction leads to increased vascular permeability and coagulation abnormalities.

CONCLUSION

While there are many similarities between dengue and SARS-CoV-2 infection, there are also key differences especially in long-term disease sequelae. Therefore, it would be important to study the parallels between the immunopathogenesis of both infections for development of more effective vaccines and therapeutic interventions.

Projecting the SARS-CoV-2 transition from pandemicity to endemicity: Epidemiological and immunological considerations

In this review, we discuss the epidemiological dynamics of different viral infections to project how the transition from a pandemic to endemic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) might take shape. Drawing from theories of disease invasion and transmission dynamics, waning immunity in the face of viral evolution and antigenic drift, and empirical data from influenza, dengue, and seasonal coronaviruses, we discuss the putative periodicity, severity, and age dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 as it becomes endemic. We review recent studies on SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, immunology, and evolution that are particularly useful in projecting the transition to endemicity and highlight gaps that warrant further research.

Assessing the role of multiple mechanisms increasing the age of dengue cases in Thailand

The age of reported dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases, the severe form of dengue infections, has been increasing in Thailand for four decades. Factors underlying this shift remain poorly understood, challenging public health planning. Here, we found aging of the population and its effect on the hazard of transmission to be the dominant contributors, with temporal changes in surveillance practices playing a lesser role. With ongoing population aging, we expect a continuing shift of DHF toward older individuals, heightening the chance of clinical complications with comorbidities. With most other highly endemic countries facing similar shifts in age structure, the pattern is expected to appear elsewhere. Awareness is needed to improve diagnosis and treatment.

The mean age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases increased considerably in Thailand from 8.1 to 24.3 y between 1981 and 2017 (mean annual increase of 0.45 y). Alternative proposed explanations for this trend, such as changes in surveillance practices, reduced mosquito–human contact, and shifts in population demographics, have different implications for global dengue epidemiology. To evaluate the contribution of each of these hypothesized mechanisms to the observed data, we developed 20 nested epidemiological models of dengue virus infection, allowing for variation over time in population demographics, infection hazards, and reporting rates. We also quantified the effect of removing or retaining each source of variation in simulations of the age trajectory. Shifts in the age structure of susceptibility explained 58% of the observed change in age. Adding heterogeneous reporting by age and reductions in per-serotype infection hazard to models with shifts in susceptibility explained an additional 42%. Reductions in infection hazards were mostly driven by changes in the number of infectious individuals at any time (another consequence of shifting age demographics) rather than changes in the transmissibility of individual infections. We conclude that the demographic transition drives the overwhelming majority of the observed change as it changes both the age structure of susceptibility and the number of infectious individuals. With the projected Thai population age structure, our results suggest a continuing increase in age of DHF cases, shifting the burden toward individuals with more comorbidity. These insights into dengue epidemiology may be relevant to many regions of the globe currently undergoing comparable changes in population demographics.

The seroepidemiology of dengue in a US military population based in Puerto Rico during the early phase of the Zika pandemic

Understanding the burden and risk factors of dengue virus (DENV) infection in Puerto Rico is important for the prevention of dengue in local, traveler and military populations. Using sera from the Department of Defense Serum Repository, we estimated the prevalence and predictors of DENV seropositivity in those who had served in Puerto Rico, stratified by birth or prior residence (“birth/residence”) in dengue-endemic versus non-endemic regions. We selected sera collected in early 2015 from 500 U.S. military members, a time-point also permitting detection of early cryptic Zika virus (ZIKV) circulation. 87.2% were born or resided in a DENV-endemic area before their military service in Puerto Rico. A high-throughput, flow-cytometry-based neutralization assay was employed to screen sera for ZIKV and DENV neutralizing antibodies, and confirmatory testing was done by plaque-reduction neutralization test (PRNT). We identified one Puerto Rico resident who seroconverted to ZIKV by June 2015, suggesting cryptic ZIKV circulation in Puerto Rico at least 4 months before the first reported cases. A further six PRNT-positive presumptive ZIKV infections which were resolved as DENV infections only by the use of paired sera. We noted 66.8% of the total study sample was DENV seropositive by early 2015. Logistic regression analysis indicated that birth/residence in a dengue non-endemic region (before military service in Puerto Rico) was associated with a lower odds of DENV exposure by January—June 2015 (aOR = 0.28, p = 0.001). Among those with birth/residence in a non-endemic country, we noted moderate evidence to support increase in odds of DENV exposure for each year of military service in Puerto Rico (aOR = 1.58, p = 0.06), but no association with age. In those with birth/residence in dengue-endemic regions (before military service in Puerto Rico), we noted that age (aOR = 1.04, p = 0.02), rather than duration of Puerto Rico service, was associated with dengue seropositivity, suggesting earlier lifetime DENV exposure. Our findings provide insights into the burden and predictors of DENV infection in local, traveler and military populations in Puerto Rico. Our study also highlights substantial PRNT ZIKV false-positivity when paired sera are not available, even during periods of very low ZIKV prevalence.

ARBOALVO: estratificação territorial para definição de áreas de pronta resposta para vigilância e controle de arboviroses urbanas em tempo oportuno

O objetivo deste trabalho foi apresentar a proposta metodológica denominada de “Pronta Resposta” modelada nas cidades de Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais) e Natal (Rio Grande do Norte), Brasil. A metodologia visa identificar e delimitar áreas prioritárias para o direcionamento das ações de vigilância em tempo oportuno, buscando a redução da intensidade e velocidade da dispersão de epidemias em áreas urbanas endêmicas. Para tanto, a metodologia utiliza três variáveis, que representam as causas necessárias para a produção e reprodução da dengue: casos notificados (vírus), ovos de Aedes (vetor) e população (hospedeiro). Trata-se de um estudo ecológico que utilizou os dados dos três planos de informações agregados em escalas temporais e espaciais mais finas, de três a quatro semanas e grades de 400 a 600 metros respectivamente. As áreas de pronta resposta foram definidas por meio de análise estatística de varredura Scan, com definição de clusters espaciais simultâneos para os três planos por meio do programa SaTScan. Os resultados observados foram: na cidade de Natal, as áreas definidas como pronta resposta ocuparam em média 15,2% do território do município e concentraram 67,77% dos casos de dengue do período posterior ao utilizado na delimitação das áreas de pronta resposta, e em Belo Horizonte, os números observados foram de 64,16% dos casos em 23,23% do território. Esses resultados foram obtidos em duas cidades com realidades socioambientais e geográficas diferentes e com perfis epidemiológicos também distintos, apontando que a metodologia pode ser aplicada em diferentes realidades urbanas, criando a possibilidade de os programas de controle atuarem em porções reduzidas do território e impactar num alto percentual de casos em tempo oportuno.

Adapting Rapid Diagnostic Tests to Detect Historical Dengue Virus Infections

The only licensed dengue vaccine, Dengvaxia®, increases risk of severe dengue when given to individuals without prior dengue virus (DENV) infection but is protective against future disease in those with prior DENV immunity. The World Health Organization has recommended using rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) to determine history of prior DENV infection and suitability for vaccination. Dengue experts recommend that these assays be highly specific (≥98%) to avoid erroneously vaccinating individuals without prior DENV infection, as well as be sensitive enough (≥95%) to detect individuals with a single prior DENV infection. We evaluated one existing and two newly developed anti-flavivirus RDTs using samples collected >6 months post-infection from individuals in non-endemic and DENV and ZIKV endemic areas. We first evaluated the IgG component of the SD BIOLINE Dengue IgG/IgM RDT, which was developed to assist in confirming acute/recent DENV infections (n=93 samples). When evaluated following the manufacturer's instructions, the SD BIOLINE Dengue RDT had 100% specificity for both non-endemic and endemic samples but low sensitivity for detecting DENV seropositivity (0% non-endemic, 41% endemic). Sensitivity increased (53% non-endemic, 98% endemic) when tests were allowed to run beyond manufacturer recommendations (0.5 up to 3 hours), but specificity decreased in endemic samples (36%). When tests were evaluated using a quantitative reader, optimal specificity could be achieved (≥98%) while still retaining sensitivity at earlier timepoints in non-endemic (44-88%) and endemic samples (31-55%). We next evaluated novel dengue and Zika RDTs developed by Excivion to detect prior DENV or ZIKV infections and reduce cross-flavivirus reactivity (n=207 samples). When evaluated visually, the Excivion Dengue RDT had sensitivity and specificity values of 79%, but when evaluated with a quantitative reader, optimal specificity could be achieved (≥98%) while still maintaining moderate sensitivity (48-75%). The Excivion Zika RDT had high specificity (>98%) and sensitivity (>93%) when evaluated quantitatively, suggesting it may be used alongside dengue RDTs to minimize misclassification due to cross-reactivity. Our findings demonstrate the potential of RDTs to be used for dengue pre-vaccination screening to reduce vaccine-induced priming for severe dengue and show how assay design adaptations as well quantitative evaluation can further improve RDTs for this purpose.

Distinguishing non severe cases of dengue from COVID-19 in the context of co-epidemics: A cohort study in a SARS-CoV-2 testing center on Reunion island

Background

As coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) is spreading globally, several countries are handling dengue epidemics. As both infections are deemed to share similarities at presentation, it would be useful to distinguish COVID-19 from dengue in the context of co-epidemics. Hence, we performed a retrospective cohort study to identify predictors of both infections.

Methodology/Principal findings

All the subjects suspected of COVID-19 between March 23 and May 10, 2020, were screened for COVID-19 within the testing center of the University hospital of Saint-Pierre, Reunion island. The screening consisted in a questionnaire surveyed in face-to-face, a nasopharyngeal swab specimen for the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) reverse transcription polymerase chain-reaction and a rapid diagnostic orientation test for dengue. Factors independently associated with COVID-19 or with dengue were sought using multinomial logistic regression models, taking other febrile illnesses (OFIs) as controls. Adjusted Odds ratios (OR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (95%CI) were assessed. Over a two-month study period, we diagnosed 80 COVID-19, 61 non-severe dengue and 872 OFIs cases eligible to multivariate analysis. Among these, we identified delayed presentation (>3 days) since symptom onset (Odds ratio 1.91, 95% confidence interval 1.07–3.39), contact with a COVID-19 positive case (OR 3.81, 95%CI 2.21–6.55) and anosmia (OR 7.80, 95%CI 4.20–14.49) as independent predictors of COVID-19, body ache (OR 6.17, 95%CI 2.69–14.14), headache (OR 5.03, 95%CI 1.88–13.44) and retro-orbital pain (OR 5.55, 95%CI 2.51–12.28) as independent predictors of dengue, while smoking was less likely observed with COVID-19 (OR 0.27, 95%CI 0.09–0.79) and upper respiratory tract infection symptoms were associated with OFIs.

Conclusions/Significance

Although prone to potential biases, these data suggest that non-severe dengue may be more symptomatic than COVID-19 in a co-epidemic setting with higher dengue attack rates. At clinical presentation, nine basic clinical and epidemiological indicators may help to distinguish COVID-19 or dengue from each other and other febrile illnesses.

As coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) is spreading globally, several countries are facing dengue epidemics with the fear the two plagues might overburden their healthcare systems. On Reunion island, southwestern Indian ocean: dengue virus is circulating since 2004 under an endemo-epidemic pattern with yearly outbreaks peaking between March and May since 2015, whereas Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the pathogen responsible of COVID-19, emerged in March 2020, imported from the Bahamas. COVID-19 and dengue are deemed two clinically similar entities, especially within the first two days from symptom onset. In this context, we conducted a cohort study between March 23 and May 10, 2020, within a SARS-CoV-2 testing center, aimed at identifying the factors discriminating both infections. Surprisingly, we found that non-severe dengue was more symptomatic than mild to moderate COVID-19. Indeed, we found body ache, headache and retro-orbital pain to be indicative of dengue, whereas contact with a COVID-19 positive case, anosmia, delayed presentation (>3 days post symptom onset) and absence of active smoking were indicative of COVID-19. These findings highlight the need for accurate diagnostic tools and not to jeopardize dengue control in areas wherever COVID-19 dengue co-epidemics have the potential to wrought havoc to the healthcare system.

Mapping global variation in dengue transmission intensity

Intervention planning for dengue requires reliable estimates of dengue transmission intensity. However, current maps of dengue risk provide estimates of disease burden or the boundaries of endemicity rather than transmission intensity. We therefore developed a global high-resolution map of dengue transmission intensity by fitting environmentally driven geospatial models to geolocated force of infection estimates derived from cross-sectional serological surveys and routine case surveillance data. We assessed the impact of interventions on dengue transmission and disease using Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes and the Sanofi-Pasteur vaccine as specific examples. We predicted high transmission intensity in all continents straddling the tropics, with hot spots in South America (Colombia, Venezuela, and Brazil), Africa (western and central African countries), and Southeast Asia (Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines). We estimated that 105 [95% confidence interval (CI), 95 to 114] million dengue infections occur each year with 51 (95% CI, 32 to 66) million febrile disease cases. Our analysis suggests that transmission-blocking interventions such as Wolbachia, even at intermediate efficacy (50% transmission reduction), might reduce global annual disease incidence by up to 90%. The Sanofi-Pasteur vaccine, targeting only seropositive recipients, might reduce global annual disease incidence by 20 to 30%, with the greatest impact in high-transmission settings. The transmission intensity map presented here, and made available for download, may help further assessment of the impact of dengue control interventions and prioritization of global public health efforts.

Fine-scale heterogeneity in Schistosoma mansoni force of infection measured through antibody response

Schistosomiasis is one of the most common parasitic diseases in the world, and most infected people (90%) live in Africa. Global control efforts use measures of population-level transmission to target programs and assess progress toward elimination. Monitoring Schistosoma mansoni transmission has traditionally relied on examining stool with microscopy, which is difficult to scale in large programs and has low sensitivity as infection burdens decline. Our results show that antibody-based measures of transmission align well with stool-based measures, provide higher sensitivity at lower levels of transmission, and enable fine-scale estimates of force of infection by geography and age. The findings represent a major step toward use of serosurveillance to guide schistosomiasis control efforts in Africa.

Schistosomiasis is among the most common parasitic diseases in the world, with over 142 million people infected in low- and middle-income countries. Measuring population-level transmission is centrally important in guiding schistosomiasis control programs. Traditionally, human Schistosoma mansoni infections have been detected using stool microscopy, which is logistically difficult at program scale and has low sensitivity when people have low infection burdens. We compared serological measures of transmission based on antibody response to S. mansoni soluble egg antigen (SEA) with stool-based measures of infection among 3,663 preschool-age children in an area endemic for S. mansoni in western Kenya. We estimated force of infection among children using the seroconversion rate and examined how it varied geographically and by age. At the community level, serological measures of transmission aligned with stool-based measures of infection (ρ = 0.94), and serological measures provided more resolution for between-community differences at lower levels of infection. Force of infection showed a clear gradient of transmission with distance from Lake Victoria, with 94% of infections and 93% of seropositive children in communities <1.5 km from the lake. Force of infection increased through age 3 y, by which time 65% (95% CI: 53%, 75%) of children were SEA positive in high-transmission communities—2 y before they would be reached by school-based deworming programs. Our results show that serologic surveillance platforms represent an important opportunity to guide and monitor schistosomiasis control programs, and that in high-transmission settings preschool-age children represent a key population missed by school-based deworming programs.

Zika virus infection enhances future risk of severe dengue disease

The Zika pandemic sparked intense interest in whether immune interactions among dengue virus serotypes 1 to 4 (DENV1 to -4) extend to the closely related Zika virus (ZIKV). We investigated prospective pediatric cohorts in Nicaragua that experienced sequential DENV1 to -3 (2004 to 2015), Zika (2016 to 2017), and DENV2 (2018 to 2020) epidemics. Risk of symptomatic DENV2 infection and severe disease was elevated by one prior ZIKV infection, one prior DENV infection, or one prior DENV infection followed by one ZIKV infection, compared with being flavivirus-naïve. By contrast, multiple prior DENV infections reduced dengue risk. Further, although high preexisting anti-DENV antibody titers protected against DENV1, DENV3, and ZIKV disease, intermediate titers induced by previous ZIKV or DENV infection enhanced future risk of DENV2 disease and severity, as well as DENV3 severity. The observation that prior ZIKV infection can modulate dengue disease severity like a DENV serotype poses challenges to development of dengue and Zika vaccines.

Antibody-Dependent Enhancement of Severe Disease Is Mediated by Serum Viral Load in Pediatric Dengue Virus Infections

BACKGROUND

Low preexisting anti-dengue virus (DENV) antibody levels are associated with elevated disease severity. While antibody-dependent enhancement of dengue is thought to be driven by viral load, this has not been conclusively shown. We evaluated the association between preinfection anti-DENV antibody titers, viral load, and disease severity among 133 dengue cases in a Nicaraguan pediatric cohort study.

METHODS

Viral load was quantified in acute-phase serum by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and analyzed in relation to preinfection antibody titer (measured by inhibition enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) and dengue severity, categorized using 3 definitions.

RESULTS

Higher viral load was significantly associated with dengue severity; for each increase of 1.0 log10 copies/mL, the odds of severe dengue increased approximately 50%, regardless of severity definition. Viral load at presentation and the odds of severe disease were highest among patients with low to intermediate preinfection antibody titers and lowest among those with the highest antibody titers. We showed the effect of preinfection antibody titer on disease severity was mediated by viral load for each of 3 dengue severity outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the association between preinfection anti-DENV antibody titer, serum viral load, and disease severity, and provides evidence for the mechanism of antibody-dependent enhancement in dengue cases.

Designing effective control of dengue with combined interventions

Viruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, have expanding ranges and seem unabated by current vector control programs. Effective control of these pathogens likely requires integrated approaches. We evaluated dengue management options in an endemic setting that combine novel vector control and vaccination using an agent-based model for Yucatán, Mexico, fit to 37 y of data. Our intervention models are informed by targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) experiments; trial outcomes and World Health Organization (WHO) testing guidance for the only licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV; and preliminary results for in-development vaccines. We evaluated several implementation options, including varying coverage levels; staggered introductions; and a one-time, large-scale vaccination campaign. We found that CYD-TDV and TIRS interfere: while the combination outperforms either alone, performance is lower than estimated from their separate benefits. The conventional model hypothesized for in-development vaccines, however, performs synergistically with TIRS, amplifying effectiveness well beyond their independent impacts. If the preliminary performance by either of the in-development vaccines is upheld, a one-time, large-scale campaign followed by routine vaccination alongside aggressive new vector control could enable short-term elimination, with nearly all cases avoided for a decade despite continuous dengue reintroductions. If elimination is impracticable due to resource limitations, less ambitious implementations of this combination still produce amplified, longer-lasting effectiveness over single-approach interventions.

Enteropathogen antibody dynamics and force of infection among children in low-resource settings

Little is known about enteropathogen seroepidemiology among children in low-resource settings. We measured serological IgG responses to eight enteropathogens (Giardia intestinalis, Cryptosporidium parvum, Entamoeba histolytica, Salmonella enterica, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, Vibrio cholerae, Campylobacter jejuni, norovirus) in cohorts from Haiti, Kenya, and Tanzania. We studied antibody dynamics and force of infection across pathogens and cohorts. Enteropathogens shared common seroepidemiologic features that enabled between-pathogen comparisons of transmission. Overall, exposure was intense: for most pathogens the window of primary infection was <3 years old; for highest transmission pathogens primary infection occurred within the first year. Longitudinal profiles demonstrated significant IgG boosting and waning above seropositivity cutoffs, underscoring the value of longitudinal designs to estimate force of infection. Seroprevalence and force of infection were rank-preserving across pathogens, illustrating the measures provide similar information about transmission heterogeneity. Our findings suggest antibody response can be used to measure population-level transmission of diverse enteropathogens in serologic surveillance.

Diarrhea, which is caused by bacteria such as Salmonella or by viruses like norovirus, is the fourth leading cause of death among children worldwide, with children in low-resource settings being at highest risk. The pathogens that cause diarrhea spread when stool from infected people comes into contact with new hosts, for example, through inadequate sanitation or by drinking contaminated water. Currently, the best way to track these infections is to collect stool samples from people and test them for the presence of the pathogens. Unfortunately, this is costly and difficult to do on a large scale outside of clinical settings, making it hard to track the spread of diarrhea-causing pathogens.

The body produces antibodies – small proteins that can detect specific pathogens – in response to an infection. These antibodies help ward off future infections by the same pathogen, so if they are present in the blood, this indicates a current or previous infection. Scientists already collect blood samples to track malaria, HIV and vaccine-preventable diseases in low-resource settings. These samples could be tested more broadly to measure the levels of antibodies against diarrhea-causing pathogens.

Now, Arnold et al. have used blood samples collected from children in Haiti, Kenya, and Tanzania to measure antibody responses to 8 diarrhea-causing pathogens. The results showed that many children in these settings had been infected with all 8 pathogens before age three, and that all of the pathogens shared similar age-dependent patterns of antibody response. This finding enabled Arnold et al. to combine antibody measurements with statistical models to estimate each pathogen’s force of infection, that is, the rate at which susceptible individuals in the population become infected. This is a key step for epidemiologists to understand which pathogens cause the most infections in a population.

The experiments show that testing blood samples for antibodies could provide scientists with a new tool to track the transmission of diarrhea-causing pathogens in low-resource settings. This information could help public health officials design and test efforts to prevent diarrhea, for example, by improving water treatment or developing vaccines.

Serological inference of past primary and secondary dengue infection: implications for vaccination

Owing to the finding that Dengvaxia^® (the only licensed dengue vaccine to date) increases the risk of severe illness among seronegative recipients, the World Health Organization has recommended screening individuals for their serostatus prior to vaccination. To decide whether and how to carry out screening, it is necessary to estimate the transmission intensity of dengue and to understand the performance of the screening method. In this study, we inferred the annual force of infection (FOI; a measurement of transmission intensity) of dengue virus in three locations in Vietnam: An Giang (FOI = 0.04 for the below 10 years age group and FOI = 0.20 for the above 10 years age group), Ho Chi Minh City (FOI = 0.12) and Quang Ngai (FOI = 0.05). In addition, we show that using a quantitative approach to immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels (measured by indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays) can help to distinguish individuals with primary exposures (primary seropositive) from those with secondary exposures (secondary seropositive). We found that primary-seropositive individuals—the main targets of the vaccine—tend to have a lower IgG level, and, thus, they have a higher chance of being misclassified as seronegative than secondary-seropositive cases. However, screening performance can be improved by incorporating patient age and transmission intensity into the interpretation of IgG levels.

Novel pan-serotype control RNA for dengue virus typing through real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction

Dengue virus (DENV) is the causative agent of one of the most important febrile illnesses worldwide. Four DENV serotypes are responsible for a broad clinical spectrum of the disease. Positive controls are costly and required for the validation of molecular test results of DENV serotyping. In this study, we describe the in silico design of the qDENV-Control plasmid with the target sequences to oligonucleotides and probes widely used for DENV serotyping, and the subsequent production of qDENV Control RNA by T7-driven run-off in vitro transcription. The qDENV Control RNA was successfully used to validate the positive and negative DENV serotyping results, allowing its incorporation in routine in-house protocols for virologic surveillance. This Control RNA allowed the absolute quantification of viral RNA copies from unknown samples as required in several fundamental studies.

Opportunities for improved surveillance and control of dengue from age-specific case data

One of the challenges faced by global disease surveillance efforts is the lack of comparability across systems. Reporting commonly focuses on overall incidence, despite differences in surveillance quality between and within countries. For most immunizing infections, the age distribution of incident cases provides a more robust picture of trends in transmission. We present a framework to estimate transmission intensity for dengue virus from age-specific incidence data, and apply it to 359 administrative units in Thailand, Colombia, Brazil and Mexico. Our estimates correlate well with those derived from seroprevalence data (the gold standard), capture the expected spatial heterogeneity in risk, and correlate with known environmental drivers of transmission. We show how this approach could be used to guide the implementation of control strategies such as vaccination. Since age-specific counts are routinely collected by masany surveillance systems, they represent a unique opportunity to further our understanding of disease burden and risk for many diseases.

Impact of pre-existing dengue immunity on human antibody and memory B cell responses to Zika

Little is known about enduring memory B cell (MBC) responses to Zika virus (ZIKV) and their relationship with circulating antibodies. Here we comprehensively assess MBC frequency and specificity alongside serum binding and neutralizing antibody responses to ZIKV ~2 weeks and ~8 months postinfection in 31 pediatric subjects with 0, 1 or >1 prior infections with the related dengue virus (DENV). ZIKV infection elicits a robust type-specific MBC response, and the majority of late convalescent anti-ZIKV serum neutralizing activity is attributable to ZIKV-specific antibodies. The number of prior DENV infections does not influence type-specific or cross-reactive MBC responses, although ZIKV has the highest cross-reactivity with DENV3. DENV cross-reactive MBCs expanded by ZIKV infection decline in number and proportion by late convalescence. Finally, ZIKV induces greater cross-reactivity in the MBC pool than in serum antibodies. Our data suggest immunity to DENV only modestly shapes breadth and magnitude of enduring ZIKV antibody responses.