Invasive grasses increase fire occurrence and frequency across US ecoregions

The LTAR Grazing Land Common Experiment at the Great Basin

The Long-Term Agroecosystem Research Network (LTAR), through its Common Experiment (CE) framework, contrasts prevailing and alternative agricultural practices for efficacy and sustainability within the indicator domains of environment, productivity, economics, and society. Invasive species, wildfire, and climate change are principal threats to Great Basin agroecosystems. Prescribed grazing may be an effective tool for restoring lands degraded by these disturbances. At the Great Basin (GB) LTAR site headquartered in Boise, ID, our contribution to the CE contrasts a prevailing (PRV), cattle grazing practice of fixed moderate stocking and duration with an alternative (ALT), prescribed grazing practice called high-intensity low-frequency (HILF) grazing where stocking and duration are tailored to suppress invasive annual grass competition with native or desirable plant species and thus promote recovery of rangelands degraded by annual grass invasion and recurrent wildfire. Preliminary results indicate cheatgrass density and fuel height have been reduced in ALT-treated paddocks compared to PRV paddocks. Since its inception in 2014, our GB CE has been a research co-production effort among ranchers, public land managers, and researchers. Future directions for this research will center on expanding the experiment to multiple study areas to better address the scope of the annual grass/wildfire problem. We expect this research will lead to effective and sustainable grazing practices for restoring >41 million hectares of degraded rangelands in the Great Basin and other areas of the western United States.

The importance of geography in forecasting future fire patterns under climate change

An increasing amount of California's landscape has burned in wildfires in recent decades, in conjunction with increasing temperatures and vapor pressure deficit due to climate change. As the wildland-urban interface expands, more people are exposed to and harmed by these extensive wildfires, which are also eroding the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. With future wildfire activity expected to increase, there is an urgent demand for solutions that sustain healthy ecosystems and wildfire-resilient human communities. Those who manage disaster response, landscapes, and biodiversity rely on mapped projections of how fire activity may respond to climate change and other human factors. California wildfire is complex, however, and climate-fire relationships vary across the state. Given known geographical variability in drivers of fire activity, we asked whether the geographical extent of fire models used to create these projections may alter the interpretation of predictions. We compared models of fire occurrence spanning the entire state of California to models developed for individual ecoregions and then projected end-of-century future fire patterns under climate change scenarios. We trained a Maximum Entropy model with fire records and hydroclimatological variables from recent decades (1981 to 2010) as well as topographic and human infrastructure predictors. Results showed substantial variation in predictors of fire probability and mapped future projections of fire depending upon geographical extents of model boundaries. Only the ecoregion models, accounting for the unique patterns of vegetation, climate, and human infrastructure, projected an increase in fire in most forested regions of the state, congruent with predictions from other studies.

Disturbance amplifies sensitivity of dryland productivity to precipitation variability

Variability of the terrestrial global carbon sink is largely determined by the response of dryland productivity to annual precipitation. Despite extensive disturbance in drylands, how disturbance alters productivity-precipitation relationships remains poorly understood. Using remote-sensing to pair more than 5600 km of natural gas pipeline corridors with neighboring undisturbed areas in North American drylands, we found that disturbance reduced average annual production 6 to 29% and caused up to a fivefold increase in the sensitivity of net primary productivity (NPP) to interannual variation in precipitation. Disturbance impacts were larger and longer-lasting at locations with higher precipitation (>450 mm mean annual precipitation). Disturbance effects on NPP dynamics were mostly explained by shifts from woody to herbaceous vegetation. Severe disturbance will amplify effects of increasing precipitation variability on NPP in drylands.

Implications of germination tolerances on invasion potential of Arthraxon hispidus

Arthraxon hispidus is an introduced, rapidly spreading, and newly invasive grass in the eastern United States, yet little is known about the foundational biology of this aggressive invader. Germination responses to environmental factors including salinity, pH, osmotic potential, temperature, and burial depth were investigated to better understand its germination niche. Seeds from six populations in the Mid-Atlantic US germinated 95% with an average mean time to germination of 3.42 days of imbibition in the dark at 23°C. Germination occurred across a temperature range of 8-37°C and a pH range of 5-10 (≥83%), suggesting that neither pH nor temperature will limit germination in many environments. Arthraxon hispidus germination occurred in high salinity (342 mM NaCl) and osmotic potentials as low as -0.83MPa. The NaCl concentration required to reduce germination by 50% exceeded salinity concentrations found in soil and some brackish water saltmarsh systems. While drought adversely affects A. hispidus, 50% germination occurred at osmotic potentials ranging from -0.25 to -0.67 MPa. Given the climatic conditions of North America, drought stress is unlikely to restrict germination in large regions. Finally, emergence greatly decreased with burial depth. Emergence was reduced to 45% at 1-2 cm burial depths, and 0% at 8 cm. Emergence depths in concert with adequate moisture, germination across a range of temperatures, and rapid germination suggests A. hispidus' seed bank may be short-lived in moist environments, but further investigation is warranted. Given the broad abiotic tolerances of A. hispidus and a widespread native range, A. hispidus has the potential to germinate in novel territories beyond its currently observed invaded range.

How do invasive predators and their native prey respond to prescribed fire?

Fire shapes animal communities by altering resource availability and species interactions, including between predators and prey. In Australia, there is particular concern that two highly damaging invasive predators, the feral cat (Felis catus) and European red fox (Vulpes vulpes), increase their activity in recently burnt areas and exert greater predation pressure on the native prey due to their increased exposure. We tested how prescribed fire occurrence and extent, along with fire history, vegetation, topography, and distance to anthropogenic features (towns and farms), affected the activity (detection frequency) of cats, foxes, and the native mammal community in south-eastern Australia. We used camera traps to quantify mammal activity before and after a prescribed burn and statistically tested how the fire interacted with these habitat variables to affect mammal activity. We found little evidence that the prescribed fire influenced the activity of cats and foxes and no evidence of an effect on kangaroo or small mammal (<800 g) activity. Medium-sized mammals (800-2000 g) were negatively associated with prescribed fire extent, suggesting that prescribed fire has a negative impact on these species in the short term. The lack of a clear activity increase from cats and foxes is likely a positive outcome from a fire management perspective. However, we highlight that their response is likely dependent upon factors like fire size, severity, and prey availability. Future experiments should incorporate GPS-trackers to record fine-scale movements of cats and foxes in temperate ecosystems immediately before and after prescribed fire to best inform management within protected areas.

Fire Responses Shape Plant Communities in a Minimal Model for Fire Ecosystems across the World

AbstractAcross plant communities worldwide, fire regimes reflect a combination of climatic factors and plant characteristics. To shed new light on the complex relationships between plant characteristics and fire regimes, we developed a new conceptual mechanistic model that includes plant competition, stochastic fires, and fire-vegetation feedback. Considering a single standing plant functional type, we observed that highly flammable and slowly colonizing plants can persist only when they have a strong fire response, while fast colonizing and less flammable plants can display a larger range of fire responses. At the community level, the fire response of the strongest competitor determines the existence of alternative ecological states (i.e., different plant communities) under the same environmental conditions. Specifically, when the strongest competitor had a very strong fire response, such as in Mediterranean forests, only one ecological state could be achieved. Conversely, when the strongest competitor was poorly fire adapted, alternative ecological states emerged-for example, between tropical humid savannas and forests or between different types of boreal forests. These findings underline the importance of including the plant fire response when modeling fire ecosystems, for example, to predict the vegetation response to invasive species or to climate change.

The cost of not acting: Delaying invasive grass management increases costs and threatens assets in a national park, northern Australia

Globally, invasive grasses are a major threat to protected areas (PAs) due to their ability to alter community structure and function, reduce biodiversity, and alter fire regimes. However, there is often a mismatch between the threat posed by invasive grasses and the management response. We document a case study of the spread and management of the ecosystem-transforming invasive grass, Andropogon gayanus Kunth. (gamba grass), in Litchfield National Park; an iconic PA in northern Australia that contains significant natural, cultural and social values. We undertook helicopter-based surveys of A. gayanus across 143,931 ha of Litchfield National Park in 2014 and 2021-2022. We used these data to parametrise a spatially-explicit spread model, interfaced with a management simulation model to predict 10-year patterns of spread, and associated management costs, under three scenarios. Our survey showed that between 2014 and 2021-22 A. gayanus spread by 9463 ha, and 47%. The gross A. gayanus infestation covered 29,713 ha of the total survey area, making it the largest national park infestation in Australia. A. gayanus had not been locally eradicated within the Park's small existing 'gamba grass eradication zone', and instead increased by 206 ha over the 7-year timeframe. Our modelled scenarios predict that without active management A. gayanus will continue spreading, covering 42,388 ha of Litchfield within a decade. Alternative scenarios predict that: (i) eradicating A. gayanus in the small existing eradication zone would likely protect 18% of visitor sites, and cost ∼AU$825,000 over 5 years - more than double the original predicted cost in 2014; or (ii) eradicating A. gayanus in a much larger eradication zone would likely protect 86% of visitor sites and several species of conservation significance, and cost ∼AU$6.6 million over 5 years. Totally eradicating A. gayanus from the Park is no longer viable due to substantial spread since 2014. Our study demonstrates the value of systematic landscape-scale surveys and costed management scenarios to enable assessment and prioritisation of weed management. It also demonstrates the increased environmental and financial costs of delaying invasive grass management, and the serious threat A. gayanus poses to PAs across northern Australia.

Spatiotemporal variability and key factors of evergreen forest encroachment in the southern Great Plains

Woody plant encroachment has been long observed in the southern Great Plains (SGP) of the United States. However, our understanding of its spatiotemporal variability, which is the basis for informed and targeted management strategy, is still poor. This study investigates the encroachment of evergreen forest, which is the most important encroachment component in the SGP. A validated evergreen forest map of the SGP (30 m resolution, for the time period 2015 to 2017) from our previous study was utilized (referred to as evergreen_base). Sample plots of evergreen forest (as of 2017) were collected across the study area, based on which a threshold of winter season (January and February) mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI_winter) was derived for each of the 5 sub-regions, using Landsat 7 surface reflectance data from 2015 to 2017. Then a NDVI_winter layer was created for each year within the four time periods of 1985-1989, 1995-1999, 2005-2009, and 2015-2017, with winter season surface reflectance data from Landsat 4, 5, and 7. By applying the sub-region specific NDVI_winter thresholds to the annual NDVI_winter layers and the evergreen_base, a SGP evergreen forest map was generated for each of those years. The annual evergreen forest maps within each time period were composited into one. According to the resulting four composite evergreen forest maps, mean annual encroachment rate (km²/year) was calculated at sub-region and ecoregion scales, over each of the three temporal stages 1990-1999, 2000-2009, and 2010-2017, respectively. To understand the spatiotemporal variability of the encroachment, the encroachment rate at each temporal stage was related to the corresponding initial evergreen forest area, mean annual precipitation (MAP), and mean annual burned area (MABA) through linear regression and pairwise comparison. Results suggest that most of the ecoregions have seen a slowing trend of evergreen forest encroachment since 1990. The temporal trend of encroachment rate tends to be consistent with that of MAP, but opposite to that of MABA. The spatial variability of the encroachment rate among ecoregions can be largely (>68%) explained by initial evergreen forest area but shows no significant relationship with MAP or MABA. These findings provide pertinent guidance for the combat of woody plant encroachment in the SGP under the context of climate change.

Fuel connectivity, burn severity, and seed bank survivorship drive ecosystem transformation in a semiarid shrubland

A key challenge in ecology is understanding how multiple drivers interact to precipitate persistent vegetation state changes. These state changes may be both precipitated and maintained by disturbances, but predicting whether the state change will be fleeting or persistent requires an understanding of the mechanisms by which disturbance affects the alternative communities. In the sagebrush shrublands of the western United States, widespread annual grass invasion has increased fuel connectivity, which increases the size and spatial contiguity of fires, leading to postfire monocultures of introduced annual grasses (IAG). The novel grassland state can be persistent and is more likely to promote large fires than the shrubland it replaced. But the mechanisms by which prefire invasion and fire occurrence are linked to higher postfire flammability are not fully understood. A natural experiment to explore these interactions presented itself when we arrived in northern Nevada immediately after a 50,000 ha wildfire was extinguished. We hypothesized that the novel grassland state is maintained via a reinforcing feedback where higher fuel connectivity increases burn severity, which subsequently increases postfire IAG dispersal, seed survivorship, and fuel connectivity. We used a Bayesian joint species distribution model and structural equation model framework to assess the strength of the support for each element in this feedback pathway. We found that prefire fuel connectivity increased burn severity and that higher burn severity had mostly positive effects on the occurrence of IAG and another nonnative species and mostly negative or neutral relationships with all other species. Finally, we found that the abundance of IAG seeds in the seed bank immediately after a fire had a positive effect on the fuel connectivity 3 years after the fire, completing a positive feedback promoting IAG. These results demonstrate that the strength of the positive feedback is controlled by measurable characteristics of ecosystem structure, composition, and disturbance. Further, each node in the loop is affected independently by multiple global change drivers. It is possible that these characteristics can be modeled to predict threshold behavior and inform management actions to mitigate or slow the establishment of the grass-fire cycle, perhaps via targeted restoration applications or prefire fuel treatments.

Estimation of climate-induced increased risk of Centaurea solstitialis L. invasion in China: An integrated study based on biomod2

Introduction

Invasive alien plants (IAPs) are major hazards to biodiversity, human health, and the agricultural economy. As one of the most aggressive species of IAPs, the distribution area of Centaurea solstitialis L. has increased exponentially in the past two years since its invasion into Xinjiang, China, in July 2014. Predicting the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) of C. solstitialis in China can provide theoretical support for preventing the continued spread of this weed.

Methods

In this study, based on 5,969 valid occurrence records of C. solstitialis and 33 environmental variables, we constructed an ensemble model to predict suitable habitats for C. solstitialis under climate change scenarios.

Results

Our results showed that the mean true skill statistic (TSS) values, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and Cohen’s Kappa (KAPPA) for the ensemble model were 0.954, 0.996, and 0.943, respectively. The ensemble model yielded more precise predictions than those of the single model. Temperature seasonality (Bio4), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and human influence index (HII) have significantly disrupted the PGDs of C. solstitialis in China. The total (high) suitability habitat area of C. solstitialis in China was 275.91 × 104 (67.78 × 104) km2, accounting for 71.26 (7.06)% of China. The PGDs of C. solstitialis in China under the current climate were mainly in East China (Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Anhui), Central China (Henan, southwestern Shanxi, southern Shaanxi, southern Gansu, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Chongqing, and Guizhou), and South China (southern Tibet, eastern Sichuan, Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, and Taiwan). Under future climate scenarios, the total suitability habitat area for C. solstitialis will expand, whereas the high suitability habitat area will decrease.

Discussion

The main manifestation is that the shift of southeast China into a moderate suitability habitat, and the total suitability habitats will be extended to northwest China. More focus needs to be placed on preventing further spread of C. solstitialis in northwest China.

Meta-analytic evidence that allelopathy may increase the success and impact of invasive grasses

Background

In the grass family, a disproportionate number of species have been designated as being invasive. Various growth traits have been proposed to explain the invasiveness of grasses; however, the possibility that allelopathy gives invasive grasses a competitive advantage has attracted relatively little attention. Recent research has isolated plant allelochemicals that are mostly specific to the grass family that can breakdown into relatively stable, toxic byproducts.

Methods

We conducted a meta-analysis of studies on grass allelopathy to test three prominent hypotheses from invasion biology and competition theory: (1) on native recipients, non-native grasses will have a significantly more negative effect compared to native grasses (Novel Weapons Hypothesis); (2) among native grasses, their effect on non-native recipients will be significantly more negative compared to their effect on native recipients (Biotic Resistance Hypothesis); and (3) allelopathic impacts will increase with phylogenetic distance (Phylogenetic Distance Hypothesis). From 23 studies, we gathered a dataset of 524 observed effect sizes (delta log response ratios) measuring the allelopathic impact of grasses on growth and germination of recipient species, and we used non-linear mixed-effects Bayesian modeling to test the hypotheses.

Results

We found support for the Novel Weapons Hypothesis: on native recipients, non-native grasses were twice as suppressive as native grasses (22% vs 11%, respectively). The Phylogenetic Distance Hypothesis was supported by our finding of a significant correlation between phylogenetic distance and allelopathic impact. The Biotic Resistance Hypothesis was not supported. Overall, this meta-analysis adds to the evidence that allelochemicals may commonly contribute to successful or high impact invasions in the grass family. Increased awareness of the role of allelopathy in soil legacy effects associated with grass invasions may improve restoration outcomes through implementation of allelopathy-informed restoration practices. Examples of allelopathy-informed practices, and the knowledge needed to utilize them effectively, are discussed, including the use of activated carbon to neutralize allelochemicals and modify the soil microbial community.

Rethinking the focus on forest fires in federal wildland fire management: Landscape patterns and trends of non-forest and forest burned area

For most of the 20th century and beyond, national wildland fire policies concerning fire suppression and fuels management have primarily focused on forested lands. Using summary statistics and landscape metrics, wildfire spatial patterns and trends for non-forest and forest burned area over the past two decades were examined across the U.S, and federal agency jurisdictions. This study found that wildfires burned more area of non-forest lands than forest lands at the scale of the conterminous and western U.S. and the Department of Interior (DOI). In an agency comparison, 74% of DOI burned area occurred on non-forest lands and 78% of U.S. Forest Service burned area occurred on forested lands. Landscape metrics revealed key differences between forest and non-forest fire patterns and trends in total burned area, burned patch size, distribution, and aggregation over time across the western U.S. Opposite fire patterns emerged between non-forest and forest burns when analyzed at the scale of federal agency jurisdictions. In addition, a fire regime departure analysis comparing current large fire probability with historic fire trends identified certain vegetation types and locations experiencing more fire than historically. These patterns were especially pronounced for cold desert shrublands, such as sagebrush where increases in annual area burned, and fire frequency, size, and juxtaposition have resulted in substantial losses over a twenty-year period. The emerging non-forest fire patterns are primarily due to the rapid expansion of non-native invasive grasses that increase fuel connectivity and fire spread. These invasions promote uncharacteristic frequent fire and loss of native ecosystems at large-scales, accelerating the need to place greater focus on managing invasive species in wildland fire management. Results can be used to inform wildfire management and policy aimed at reducing uncharacteristic wildfire processes and patterns for both non-forest and forest ecosystems as well as identify differing management strategies needed to address the unique wildfire issues each federal agency faces.

An integrated approach for the restoration of Australian temperate grasslands invaded by Nassella trichotoma

Invasive plants are considered to be one of the biggest threats to environmental assets, and once established, they can be immensely difficult to control. Nassella trichotoma is an aggressive, perennial grass species, and is considered to be one of the most economically damaging weeds to grazing systems due to its unpalatability, as well as being one of the leading causes of biodiversity loss in grassland communities. This species produces high density seedbanks that rapidly respond to disturbance events. Despite control programs being developing in Australia since the 1930s, this species is still widespread throughout south-east Australia, indicating that a new management approach is critical to control this Weed of National Significance at the landscape scale. The present study explored the effect of 12 different combinations of herbicide, fire, a second application of herbicide, grazing exclusion, tillage and broadcasting seeds in order to reduce the above and below-ground density of N. trichotoma. A control treatment was also included. The results were assessed using a Hierarchy analysis, whereby treatments of increasing complexity were compared for their efficacy in reducing N. trichotoma cover and seedbank density, while simultaneously increasing the establishment of the broadcast species. Whilst all integrated treatments effectively reduced N. trichotoma's seedbank, the treatments that included fire performed significantly better at simultaneously reducing N. trichotoma and increasing the establishment of broadcasted seeds. Overall, the integration of herbicide, fire and broadcasting native seeds was observed to provide the most economically feasible management strategy for the landscape scale restoration of a degraded temperate grassland dominated by N. trichotoma.

Invasive Species Policy Must Embrace a Changing Climate

With increasing impacts of climate change observed across ecosystems, there is an urgent need to consider climate change in all future environmental policy. But existing policy and management might be slow to respond to this challenge, leading to missed opportunities to incorporate climate change into practice. Furthermore, invasive species threats continue to rise and interact with climate change—exacerbating negative impacts. Enabling natural resource managers and individuals to be proactive about climate-driven invasive species threats creates a win–win for conservation. Recommendations include expanding opportunities for information sharing across borders, supporting proactive screening and regulation of high-risk species on the horizon, and incentivizing individual actions that reduce ecological impacts. In addition, invasive species risk should be considered when crafting climate mitigation and adaptation policy to reduce compounding stressors on ecosystems. As we develop much-needed tools to reduce harm, policy and management must consider the combined threats of invasions and climate change.

The impacts of wildfires of different burn severities on vegetation structure across the western United States rangelands

Large wildfires have increased in western US rangelands over the last three decades. There is limited information on the impacts of wildfires with different severities on the vegetation in these rangelands. This study assessed the impacts of large wildfires on rangeland fractional cover including annual forbs and grasses (AFG), perennial forbs and grasses (PFG), shrubs (SHR) and trees (TREE) across the western US, and explored relationships between changes in fractional cover and prefire soil moisture conditions. The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm was used to group wildfires into nine clusters based on the prefire rangeland fractional cover extracted from the Rangeland Analysis Platform. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with various lag scales from the Gridded Surface Meteorological (GRIDMET) dataset was used to represent antecedent soil moisture conditions. The results showed generally that fractional cover decreased most for AFG and PFG during the fire year, one year postfire for SHR, and two years postfire for TREE. High severity wildfires led to the greatest decrease in cover for all plant functional types, while low severity wildfires caused the least decrease in the functional type cover in most cases, though some variations existed. Furthermore, the impacts of wildfires on vegetation cover were greater in woody (SHR and TREE) types than in herbaceous (AFG and PFG) types. Significant negative correlation existed between percent changes in AFG and PFG cover and SPEI indicating higher prefire soil moisture conditions likely increased fine fuel loads and led to a larger decrease in AFG and PFG cover following wildfires. Significant positive correlation existed between percent changes in SHR and TREE cover and SPEI indicating drier prefire conditions resulted in larger decreases in SHR and TREE cover following wildfires. These findings help better understand the impacts of wildfires on rangelands and provide insights for rangeland management.

Allelopathy and Allelochemicals of Imperata cylindrica as an Invasive Plant Species

Imperata cylindrica is native to Southeast Asia and East Africa and has become naturalized in humid tropics, subtropics and warmer temperate zones of the world. The species is one of the top ten worst weeds in the worlds and is listed among the world's top 100 worst invasive alien species. It is an aggressive colonizer and forms large monospecific stands in several countries. Possible evidence of the allelopathy of I. cylindrica has been accumulated in the literature over three decades. The extracts, leachates, root exudates, decomposing residues and rhizosphere soil of I. cylindrica were found to suppress the germination and growth of several plant species, including woody plant species, and to reduce their rhizobium nodulation and mycorrhizal colonization. Several allelochemicals, such as fatty acids, terpenoids, simple phenolics, benzoic acids, phenolic acids, phenolic aldehydes, phenylpropanoids, flavonoids, quinones and alkaloids, were also found in the extracts, leachates, root exudates and/or growth medium of I. cylindrica. These observations suggest that allelochemicals may be synthesized in I. cylindrica and released into the rhizosphere soil and surrounding environments either by the leachates, root exudation or decomposition process of plant parts, and certain allelochemicals may contribute to the alteration of the microbial community, including rhizobia and mycorrhizal fungi, suppressing the regeneration process of native plant species through the inhibition of their germination and growth. Therefore, the allelopathy of I. cylindrica may support its invasiveness, naturalization and formation of large monospecific stands. This is the first review article focusing on the allelopathy of I. cylindrica.

Multisensor UAS mapping of Plant Species and Plant Functional Types in Midwestern Grasslands

Uncrewed aerial systems (UASs) have emerged as powerful ecological observation platforms capable of filling critical spatial and spectral observation gaps in plant physiological and phenological traits that have been difficult to measure from space-borne sensors. Despite recent technological advances, the high cost of drone-borne sensors limits the widespread application of UAS technology across scientific disciplines. Here, we evaluate the tradeoffs between off-the-shelf and sophisticated drone-borne sensors for mapping plant species and plant functional types (PFTs) within a diverse grassland. Specifically, we compared species and PFT mapping accuracies derived from hyperspectral, multispectral, and RGB imagery fused with light detection and ranging (LiDAR) or structure-for-motion (SfM)-derived canopy height models (CHM). Sensor–data fusion were used to consider either a single observation period or near-monthly observation frequencies for integration of phenological information (i.e., phenometrics). Results indicate that overall classification accuracies for plant species and PFTs were highest in hyperspectral and LiDAR-CHM fusions (78 and 89%, respectively), followed by multispectral and phenometric–SfM–CHM fusions (52 and 60%, respectively) and RGB and SfM–CHM fusions (45 and 47%, respectively). Our findings demonstrate clear tradeoffs in mapping accuracies from economical versus exorbitant sensor networks but highlight that off-the-shelf multispectral sensors may achieve accuracies comparable to those of sophisticated UAS sensors by integrating phenometrics into machine learning image classifiers.

Statistical considerations of nonrandom treatment applications reveal region-wide benefits of widespread post-fire restoration action

Accurate predictions of ecological restoration outcomes are needed across the increasingly large landscapes requiring treatment following disturbances. However, observational studies often fail to account for nonrandom treatment application, which can result in invalid inference. Examining a spatiotemporally extensive management treatment involving post-fire seeding of declining sagebrush shrubs across semiarid areas of the western USA over two decades, we quantify drivers and consequences of selection biases in restoration using remotely sensed data. From following more than 1,500 wildfires, we find treatments were disproportionately applied in more stressful, degraded ecological conditions. Failure to incorporate unmeasured drivers of treatment allocation led to the conclusion that costly, widespread seedings were unsuccessful; however, after considering sources of bias, restoration positively affected sagebrush recovery. Treatment effects varied with climate, indicating prioritization criteria for interventions. Our findings revise the perspective that post-fire sagebrush seedings have been broadly unsuccessful and demonstrate how selection biases can pose substantive inferential hazards in observational studies of restoration efficacy and the development of restoration theory.

Digitized collections elucidate invasion history and patterns of awn polymorphism in Microstegium vimineum

PREMISE

Digitized collections can help illuminate the mechanisms behind the establishment and spread of invasive plants. These databases provide a record of traits in space and time that allows for investigation of abiotic and biotic factors that influence invasive species.

METHODS

Over 1100 digitized herbarium records were examined to investigate the invasion history and trait variation of Microstegium vimineum. Presence-absence of awns was investigated to quantify geographic patterns of this polymorphic trait, which serves several functions in grasses, including diaspore burial and dispersal to germination sites. Floret traits were further quantified, and genomic analyses of contemporary samples were conducted to investigate the history of M. vimineum's introduction and spread into North America.

RESULTS

Herbarium records revealed similar patterns of awn polymorphism in native and invaded ranges of M. vimineum, with awned forms predominating at higher latitudes and awnless forms at lower latitudes. Herbarium records and genomic data suggested initial introduction and spread of the awnless form in the southeastern United States, followed by a putative secondary invasion and spread of the awned form from eastern Pennsylvania. Awned forms have longer florets, and floret size varies significantly with latitude. There is evidence of a transition zone with short-awned specimens at mid-latitudes. Genomic analyses revealed two distinct clusters corresponding to awnless and awned forms, with evidence of admixture.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate the power of herbarium data to elucidate the invasion history of a problematic weed in North America and, together with genomic data, reveal a possible key trait in introduction success: presence or absence of an awn.

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches for Managing Fire in a Changing Climate

As the effects of climate change accumulate and intensify, resource managers juggle existing goals and new mandates to operationalize adaptation. Fire managers contend with the direct effects of climate change on resources in addition to climate-induced disruptions to fire regimes and subsequent ecosystem effects. In systems stressed by warming and drying, increased fire activity amplifies the pace of change and scale of severe disturbance events, heightening the urgency for management action. Fire managers are asked to integrate information on climate impacts with their professional expertise to determine how to achieve management objectives in a changing climate with altered fire regimes. This is a difficult task, and managers need support as they incorporate climate adaptation into planning and operations. We present a list of adaptation strategies and approaches specific to fire and climate based on co-produced knowledge from a science–management partnership and pilot-tested in a two-day workshop with natural resource managers and regional stakeholders. This “menu” is a flexible and useful tool for fire managers who need to connect the dots between fire ecology, climate science, adaptation intent, and management implementation. It was created and tested as part of an adaptation framework used widely across the United States and should be applicable and useful in many fire-prone forest ecosystems.

Composition Characteristics of an Urban Forest Soil Seed Bank and Its Influence on Vegetation Restoration: A Case Study in Dadu Terrace, Central Taiwan

The contributions of urban forests and green spaces to sustainable development have been confirmed. Meanwhile, cities worldwide have shown that investments in urban forestry can greatly contribute to citizens’ quality of life. This study was conducted in urban forests in the Dadu Terrace of Taichung City, central Taiwan, which were frequently disturbed by fires and had grassland severely invaded by Panicum maximum after the forest degraded. We sampled 46 plots in Dadu Terrace to understand the relationship between the soil seed bank and vegetation as well as to evaluate the feasibility of applying soil seed bank transfers for ecological restoration in Dadu Terrace. The grassland was dominated by Panicum maximum. Forest vegetation was distinguished by cluster analysis into five types, i.e., Ficus microcarpa type, Acacia confusa type, Litsea glutinosa type, Cinnamomum camphora type, and Trema orientalis type. In the aboveground survey, we recorded 141 vascular plants, including 129 seed plants and 12 ferns. There were 40 identified species of naturalized plants. A total of 29,914 seedlings were recorded in the soil seed bank, with an average seed density of 9634 seeds/m2 and a total of 91 species. There were 40 species of naturalized plants, accounting for 90.9% of the total seed reserves. This showed that Dadu Terrace was severely affected by the invasion of naturalized species. The species number and seed reserves of woody plants of the Panicum maximum type were significantly lower than those of forest vegetation. The composition of the soil seed bank was dominated by naturalized plants, indicating that the high frequency of fire reduced the proportion of native species and woody plants in the soil seed bank. Acacia confusa type was the main forest type in Dadu Terrace. Although several woody species and seed reserves were in its soil seed bank, the naturalized proportions were even higher. Trema orientalis type was the secondary forest type in Dadu Terrace; it had the smallest forest area. However, it was the only vegetation type with a greater tree seed abundance than herbs and the lowest proportion of naturalized seed abundance. Trema orientalis type vegetation has a relatively high soil transfer value for ecological restoration but lacks diversity. Our results revealed that the characteristics of the soil seed bank of Dadu Terrace make it challenging to restore the grassland to the forest by natural succession. Therefore, we suggest that artificial restoration is necessary for Dadu Terrace.

U.S. fires became larger, more frequent, and more widespread in the 2000s

Recent fires have fueled concerns that regional and global warming trends are leading to more extreme burning. We found compelling evidence that average fire events in regions of the United States are up to four times the size, triple the frequency, and more widespread in the 2000s than in the previous two decades. Moreover, the most extreme fires are also larger, more common, and more likely to co-occur with other extreme fires. This documented shift in burning patterns across most of the country aligns with the palpable change in fire dynamics noted by the media, public, and fire-fighting officials.

Automatic detection of alien plant species in action camera images using the chopped picture method and the potential of citizen science

Monitoring and detection of invasive alien plant species are necessary for effective management and control measures. Although efforts have been made to detect alien trees using satellite images, the detection of alien herbaceous species has been difficult. In this study, we examined the possibility of detecting non-native plants using deep learning on images captured by two action cameras. We created a model for each camera using the chopped picture method. The models were able to detect the alien plant Solidago altissima (tall goldenrod) and obtained an average accuracy of 89%. This study proved that it is possible to automatically detect exotic plants using inexpensive action cameras through deep learning. This advancement suggests that, in the future, citizen science may be useful for conducting distribution surveys of alien plants in a wide area at a low cost.

Interacting global change drivers suppress a foundation tree species

Ecological stress caused by climate change, invasive species and anthropogenic disturbance is driving global environmental change, but how these stressors interact to impact native species are poorly understood. We used a field experiment to test how two stressors (drought and plant invasion by Imperata cylindrica) interacted to determine the effects of a third stressor (fire) on a foundation tree species (Pinus palustris). The invasion combined with prolonged drought resulted in shorter trees than invasion alone. The invasion also resulted in 65% greater fuel loads, four times taller flames, greater maximum temperatures and longer heating duration. Consequently, nearly all tree mortality occurred due to a synergistic interaction between the drought + invasion treatment and fire, where invasion caused taller flames that impacted trees that were shorter due to drought. These findings demonstrate that synergy amongst ecological stressors can dramatically impact native species, with significant implications for forecasting the effects of multiple stressors under global change.

Limitations to Propagule Dispersal Will Constrain Postfire Recovery of Plants and Fungi in Western Coniferous Forests

Many forest species are adapted to long-interval, high-severity fires, but the intervals between severe fires are decreasing with changes in climate, land use, and biological invasions. Although the effects of changing fire regimes on some important recovery processes have previously been considered, the consequences for the dispersal of propagules (plant seeds and fungal spores) in forest communities have not. We characterize three mechanisms by which changing fire regimes disrupt propagule dispersal in mesic temperate, boreal, and high-elevation forests: reduced abundance and altered spatial distributions of propagule source populations, less effective dispersal of propagules by wind, and altered behavior of animal dispersers and propagule predators. We consider how disruptions to propagule dispersal may interact with other factors that are also influenced by fire regime change, potentially increasing risk of forest conversion. Finally, we highlight urgent research topics regarding how dispersal limitation may shape twenty-first century forest recovery after stand-replacing fire.

Biological invasions and climate change amplify each other's effects on dryland degradation

Climate models predict that, in the coming decades, many arid regions will experience increasingly hot conditions and will be affected more frequently by drought. These regions are also experiencing rapid vegetation change, notably invasion by exotic grasses. Invasive grasses spread rapidly into native desert ecosystems due, in particular, to interannual variability in precipitation and periodic fires. The resultant destruction of non-fire-adapted native shrub and grass communities and of the inherent soil resource heterogeneity can yield invader-dominated grasslands. Moreover, recurrent droughts are expected to cause widespread physiological stress and mortality of both invasive and native plants, as well as the loss of soil resources. However, the magnitude of these effects may differ between invasive and native grasses, especially under warmer conditions, rendering the trajectory of vegetated communities uncertain. Using the Biosphere 2 facility in the Sonoran Desert, we evaluated the viability of these hypothesized relationships by simulating combinations of drought and elevated temperature (+5°C) and assessing the ecophysiological and mortality responses of both a dominant invasive grass (Pennisetum ciliare or buffelgrass) and a dominant native grass (Heteropogan contortus or tanglehead). While both grasses survived protracted drought at ambient temperatures by inducing dormancy, drought under warmed conditions exceeded the tolerance limits of the native species, resulting in greater and more rapid mortality than exhibited by the invasive. Thus, two major drivers of global environmental change, biological invasion and climate change, can be expected to synergistically accelerate ecosystem degradation unless large-scale interventions are enacted.

A screening system to predict wildfire risk of invasive plants

Globally, invasive plant-fueled wildfires have tremendous environmental, economical, and societal impacts, and the frequencies of wildfires and plant invasions are on an upward trend globally. Identifying which plant species tend to increase the frequency or severity of wildfire is important to help manage their impacts. We developed a screening system to identify introduced plant species that are likely to increase wildfire risk, using the Hawaiian Islands to test the system and illustrate how the system can be applied to inform management decisions. Expert-based fire risk scores derived from field experiences with 49 invasive species in Hawai′i were used to train a machine learning model that predicts expert fire risk scores from among 21 plant traits obtained from literature and databases. The model revealed that just four variables can identify species categorized as higher fire risk by experts with 90% accuracy, while low risk species were identified with 79% accuracy. We then used the predictive model to screen > 140 recently naturalized plants in Hawai′i to illustrate how the screening tool can be applied. The screening tool identified a managebly small set of species (6% of naturalizations in the last ~ 10 years) that are likely to pose a high fire risk and can be targeted for eradication or containment to reduce future wildfire risks. Because the screening system uses general plant traits that are likely relevant to fire risk in drylands around the world, it can likely be applied with minimal modification to other regions where invasive plants pose potential fire risks.

Grassification and Fast-Evolving Fire Connectivity and Risk in the Sonoran Desert, United States

In the southwestern United States, non-native grass invasions have increased wildfire occurrence in deserts and the likelihood of fire spread to and from other biomes with disparate fire regimes. The elevational transition between desertscrub and montane grasslands, woodlands, and forests generally occurs at ∼1,200 masl and has experienced fast suburbanization and an expanding wildland-urban interface (WUI). In summer 2020, the Bighorn Fire in the Santa Catalina Mountains burned 486 km2 and prompted alerts and evacuations along a 40-km stretch of WUI below 1,200 masl on the outskirts of Tucson, Arizona, a metropolitan area of &gt;1M people. To better understand the changing nature of the WUI here and elsewhere in the region, we took a multidimensional and timely approach to assess fire dynamics along the Desertscrub-Semi-desert Grassland ecotone in the Catalina foothills, which is in various stages of non-native grass invasion. The Bighorn Fire was principally a forest fire driven by a long-history of fire suppression, accumulation of fine fuels following a wet winter and spring, and two decades of hotter droughts, culminating in the hottest and second driest summer in the 125-yr Tucson weather record. Saguaro (Carnegia gigantea), a giant columnar cactus, experienced high mortality. Resprouting by several desert shrub species may confer some post-fire resiliency in desertscrub. Buffelgrass and other non-native species played a minor role in carrying the fire due to the patchiness of infestation at the upper edge of the Desertscrub biome. Coupled state-and-transition fire-spread simulation models suggest a marked increase in both burned area and fire frequency if buffelgrass patches continue to expand and coalesce at the Desertscrub/Semi-desert Grassland interface. A survey of area residents six months after the fire showed awareness of buffelgrass was significantly higher among residents that were evacuated or lost recreation access, with higher awareness of fire risk, saguaro loss and declining property values, in that order. Sustained and timely efforts to document and assess fast-evolving fire connectivity due to grass invasions, and social awareness and perceptions, are needed to understand and motivate mitigation of an increasingly fire-prone future in the region.

Non-native plant removal and high rainfall years promote post-fire recovery of Artemisia californica in southern California sage scrub

Non-native plant invasions, changes in fire regime, and increasing drought stress all pose important threats to biodiverse mediterranean-climate shrublands. These factors can also interact, with fire and drought potentially creating opportunities for non-native species to establish dominance before native shrubs recover. We carried out post-fire demographic monitoring of the common native shrub Artemisia californica in a southern California sage scrub fragment for 7 years, including several with very low rainfall. Experimental removals of non-native plants were included for the first 4 years. We quantified A. californica post-fire crown resprouting and seedling emergence, and tested effects of precipitation, non-native plants, and their interactions on seedling and adult survival. Only 7 A. californica were confirmed as resprouts; almost all individuals established after the fire from seedlings, with 90% of emergence occurring in the second growing year after fire (spring 2015). Higher spring precipitation increased both adult and seedling survival. Non-native grasses and forbs rapidly recolonized control plots, but the removal treatment reduced non-native cover by nearly 60%. For seedlings, non-native removal reduced the probability of dropping leaves by start of summer drought and increased survival both directly and through positive interactions with rainfall. Non-native removal also reduced mortality in smaller adult plants. By 2020, mean A. californica canopy area was nearly four times greater in non-native removal plots. These findings reinforce the high vulnerability of sage scrub habitat to post-fire loss of shrub cover and potential type conversion, particularly with increasing drought frequency and in stands and species with limited crown resprouting. Yet they also illustrate the potential for targeted management of non-natives immediately after fire to promote recovery of native shrubs in this increasingly endangered community.

Translational invasion ecology: bridging research and practice to address one of the greatest threats to biodiversity

Effective natural resource management and policy is contingent on information generated by research. Conversely, the applicability of research depends on whether it is responsive to the needs and constraints of resource managers and policy makers. However, many scientific fields including invasion ecology suffer from a disconnect between research and practice. Despite strong socio-political imperatives, evidenced by extensive funding dedicated to addressing invasive species, the pairing of invasion ecology with stakeholder needs to support effective management and policy is lacking. As a potential solution, we propose translational invasion ecology (TIE). As an extension of translational ecology, as a framework to increase collaboration among scientists, practitioners, and policy makers to reduce negative impacts of invasive species. As an extension of translational ecology, TIE is an approach that embodies an intentional and inclusive process in which researchers, stakeholders, and decision makers collaborate to develop and implement ecological research via joint consideration of the ecological, sociological, economic, and/or political contexts in order to improve invasive species management. TIE ideally results in improved outcomes as well as shared benefits between researchers and managers. We delineate the steps of our proposed TIE approach and describe successful examples of ongoing TIE projects from the US and internationally. We suggest practical ways to begin incorporating TIE into research and management practices, including supporting boundary-spanning organizations and activities, expanding networks, sharing translational experiences, and measuring outcomes. We find that there is a need for strengthened boundary spanning, as well as funding and recognition for advancing translational approaches. As climate change and globalization exacerbate invasive species impacts, TIE provides a promising approach to generate actionable ecological research while improving outcomes of invasive species management and policy decisions.

Contrasting Geographic Patterns of Ignition Probability and Burn Severity in the Mojave Desert

The extent and frequency of fire has increased in many arid systems over the last century, with a large proportion of area in some regions undergoing transitions to novel conditions. Portions of the Mojave Desert in southwestern North America have undergone such transitions, most often from woody to herbaceous-dominated systems. These transitions have often been attributed to the proliferation of invasive annual grasses that promote more frequent fire, but recent evidence indicates that transitions can also occur independent of fire frequency if burn severity is high. In addition, high probability of ignition (i.e., potentially high fire frequency) and high burn severity may not always be geographically related. Therefore, our goals were to: (1) map potential burn severity, fire frequency, and probability of ignition across the Mojave; and, (2) evaluate spatial association among predicted burn severity, fire frequency and probability of ignition. We first mapped perimeters of 250 wildfires &gt; 405 ha that occurred from 1972 to 2010, then extracted data on fire frequency (number of times burned from 1972 to 2010), burn severity (the difference Normalized Burn Ratio), and 15 predictor variables representing physiography, climate, ignition, and vegetation. Maximum entropy was used to predict probability of ignition and Random Forest models were used to predict dNBR and fire frequency. Areas with high burn severity and high ignition probability had opposite spatial trends; areas with high burn severity were predicted to predominantly be in the northwest part of the region whereas areas with high ignition probability were predicted to be in the northeast. The models indicate the existence of a number of spatially structured but temporally dynamic fire regimes throughout the Mojave Desert. Two prevalent and ecologically significant regimes include one with frequent fires of low to moderate severity and another with infrequent fire of high severity. Areas with high fire frequency are currently limited in extent (&lt;1% total area). However, cover of invasive grasses can remain high decades after a burn of high or moderate severity, so grass-fire cycles could develop in areas where there may be expectations of infrequent fire as well as those with relatively high fire frequency.