Social dimensions of fertility behavior and consumption patterns in the Anthropocene

Changes in online public opinions associated with various three-child supportive policies in China: Observational study using social media data over time

BACKGROUND

According to the Seventh National Census, China's fertility rate is less than 1.5, marking a significant national issue with potential risks. To counter this low birth rate, the Chinese government has relaxed family planning policies and introduced supportive measures.

PURPOSE

Changes in birth policy have attracted considerable attention from the people of China. This article aims to study the public's response to the three-child support policy using Weibo as a window. The goal is to provide a more balanced evaluation of current perspectives, enabling policymakers to formulate better fertility information, particularly when anticipating a poor public response to controversial policies.

METHODOLOGY

This research uses a crawler to gather data from Sina Weibo. Through opinion mining of Weibo posts on the three-child policy, Weibo users' online opinions on the three-child policy are analyzed from two perspectives: their attention content and sentiment tendency. Using an interrupted time series, it examines changes in online views on the policy, matching policy documents to the time nodes of Weibo posts.

FINDINGS

The public has shown great interest in and provided short-term positive feedback on policies related to improving maternity insurance, birth rewards, and housing subsidies. In contrast, there has been a continuous negative response to policies such as extending maternity leave, which has particularly sparked concerns among women regarding future employment and marital rights protection. On social media, the public's attention to the three-child birth policy has focused mainly on the protection of women's rights, especially legal rights after childbirth, and issues related to physical and mental health. Child-rearing support and economic pressure are also hot topics, involving the daily expenses of multichild families, childcare services, and housing pressure. However, this study also revealed that infertile or single women express a strong desire to have children, but due to limitations in the personal medical insurance system, this desire has not been fully satisfied.

CONTRIBUTIONS

Our study demonstrates the feasibility of a rapid and flexible method for evaluating the public response to various three-child supportive policies in China using near real-time social media data. This information can help policy makers anticipate public responses to future pandemic three-child policies and ensure that adequate resources are dedicated to addressing increases in negative sentiment and levels of disagreement in the face of scientifically informed but controversial, restrictions.

Population decline: where demography, social science, and biology intersect

In brief

Over the past half century, the world has witnessed an unprecedented decline in human fertility rates. This analysis reviews the various socioeconomic, cultural, and biological factors involved in driving this change and considers whether low fertility rates are a temporary or permanent feature of our future demographic profile.

Abstract

Since the early 1960s, the world has witnessed the spectacular collapse of human fertility. As a result of this phenomenon, several countries are already seeing their population numbers fall and more will follow in the coming decades. The causes of this fertility decline involve a complex interplay of socio-economic, environmental, and biological factors that have converged to constrain fertility in posterity's wake. Since large numbers of offspring are no longer needed to compensate for high infant mortality in contemporary society, couples have opted to have small families in a quality-over-quantity investment in their progeny's future. Simultaneously, increases in female education, the enhanced participation of women in the paid workforce, and a resultant delay in childbearing has placed limits on achievable family size. Progressive urbanization, the improved availability of contraceptives, and the socio-economic pressures experienced by young adults in ageing societies are also contributing to fertility's demise. These factors, together with the individualism that pervades modern society and the increasing social acceptability of voluntary childlessness, have firmly established a low fertility ethos in most post-transition countries. Since none of these forces are about to relent, it looks as if extremely low fertility might be with us for some time to come. This may have long-term consequences. The lack of selection pressure on high fertility genotypes, the ability of ART to retain poor fertility genotypes within the population, and sustained exposure to reproductive toxicants in modern industrialized environments may all contrive to leave a permanent mark on the fecundity of our species.

Connecting human behaviour, meaning and nature

Much of the discourse around climate change and the situation of diverse human societies and cultures in the Anthropocene focuses on responding to scientific understanding of the dynamics of the biosphere by adjusting existing institutional and organizational structures. Our emerging scientific understanding of human behaviour and the mechanisms that enable groups to achieve large-scale coordination and cooperation suggests that incrementally adjusting existing institutions and organizations will not be sufficient to confront current global-scale challenges. Specifically, the transaction costs of operating institutions to induce selfish rational actors to consider social welfare in their decision-making are too high. Rather, we highlight the importance of networks of shared stories that become real-imagined orders-that create context, meaning and shared purpose for framing decisions and guiding action. We explore imagined orders that have contributed to bringing global societies to where they are and propose elements of a science-informed imagined order essential to enabling societies to flourish in the Anthropocene biosphere. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.

Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability

The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.

Environmental quality and its impact on total fertility rate: an econometric analysis from a new perspective

BACKGROUND

Environmental quality significantly affects various aspects of human existence. This study employs ecological footprint as a proxy to assess the impact of environmental quality on the TFR, measured as births per woman. This study investigates the extent to which ecological footprint indicators impact on the TFR in across 31 countries between from 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

We gathered data on ecological footprints, specifically carbon, agricultural land, grazing land, forest products, and fisheries, from the Global Footprint Network. Information on the TFR, Human Development Index (HDI), and per capita Gross National Income (GNI) were sourced from the World Bank and the United Nations. We applied static panel and quantile regression models to scrutinize the connection between the ecological footprint and TFR, showing how the former influences the latter.

RESULTS

The outcomes reveal that, in both fixed and random effects models, factors including HDI, carbon, and fishing grounds exert a negative influence on TFR, all at a significance level of p < 0.01. Conversely, cropland and forest product footprints exhibited a favorable impact on the TFR (p < 0.01). Furthermore, GNI per capita positively affected the TFR in both models, with a p-value of 0.01. Quantiles regression analysis demonstrated that HDI and carbon footprint had a negative impact on TFR across all quantiles. This statistical significance is maintained for all quantiles, although it is only significant for the carbon footprint up to the 60th quantile, at p < 0.01.

CONCLUSIONS

This study establishes a negative correlation between specific ecological footprint indicators, such as carbon and fishing grounds, and TFR. Conversely, there was a positive correlation between the footprint of forest products and the TFR. The primary conclusion drawn is that there is heterogeneity in the results regarding the relationship between ecological footprint and TFR. Moreover, the ecological footprint indicators considered in this study did not uniformly influence TFR. Each ecological footprint indicator exhibited distinct effects on the TFR, displaying either positive or negative correlation coefficients. Future research endeavors may delve into how ecological footprints impact other population dynamics, such as mortality and migration.

Economic factors underlying biodiversity loss

Contemporary economic thinking does not acknowledge that the human economy is embedded in Nature; it instead treats humanity as a customer that draws on Nature. In this paper, we present a grammar for economic reasoning that is not built on that error. The grammar is based on a comparison between our demand for Nature's maintenance and regulating services and her ability to supply them on a sustainable basis. The comparison is then used to show that for measuring economic well-being, national statistical offices should estimate an inclusive measure of their economies' wealth and its distribution, not GDP and its distribution. The concept of 'inclusive wealth' is then used to identify policy instruments that ought to be used to manage such global public goods as the open seas and tropical rainforests. Trade liberalization without heed paid to the fate of local ecosystems from which primary products are drawn and exported by developing countries leads to a transfer of inclusive wealth from there to rich importing countries. Humanity's embeddedness in Nature has far-reaching implications for the way we should view human activities-in households, communities, nations and the world. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Social norms and fertility intentions: Evidence from China

China’s low fertility rates are a major concern across all sectors of society. Fertility is a major issue related to economy, society and family development. Based on social norms theory, this paper explores the influence of social norms on individuals’ fertility intentions from two perspectives: spatial proximity and social proximity. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies, we found that individual’s fertility intentions were influenced by social norms; both neighborhood social norms and group social norms had significant effects. The role of social norms in shaping individual fertility intentions varied by gender, hukou, and life course; specifically, men, rural residents, and married individuals were more significantly influenced by social norms. This study improves the theoretical framework of fertility decision making by arguing that in addition to macro and individual factors, social norms have a very important influence on fertility intentions. Our findings suggest that reshaping social norms regarding fertility is essential to enhance fertility rates in China.

Population, Ecological Footprint and the Sustainable Development Goals

The Anthropocene can be read as being the era when the demand humanity makes on the biosphere's goods and services-humanity's 'ecological footprint'-vastly exceeds its ability to supply it on a sustainable basis. Because the 'ecological' gap is met by a diminution of the biosphere, the inequality is increasing. We deploy estimates of the ecological gap, global GDP and its growth rates in recent years, and the rate at which natural capital has declined, to study three questions: (1) at what rate must efficiency at which Nature's services are converted into GDP rise if the UN's Sustainable Development Goals for year 2030 are to be sustainable; (2) what would a sustainable figure for world population be if global living standard is to be maintained at an acceptably high level? (3) What living standard could we aspire to if world population was to attain the UN's near lower-end projection for 2100 of 9 billion? While we take a global perspective, the reasoning we deploy may also be applied on a smaller scale. The base year we adopt for our computations is the pre-pandemic 2019.

Habitat percolation transition undermines sustainability in social-ecological agricultural systems

Steady increases in human population size and resource consumption are driving rampant agricultural expansion and intensification. Habitat loss caused by agriculture puts the integrity of ecosystems at risk and threatens the persistence of human societies that rely on ecosystem services. We develop a spatially explicit model describing the coupled dynamics of an agricultural landscape and human population size to assess the effect of different land-use management strategies, defined by agricultural clustering and intensification, on the sustainability of the social-ecological system. We show how agricultural expansion can cause natural habitats to undergo a percolation transition leading to abrupt habitat fragmentation that feedbacks on human's decision making, aggravating landscape degradation. We found that agricultural intensification to spare land from conversion is a successful strategy only in highly natural landscapes, and that clustering agricultural land is the most effective measure to preserve large connected natural fragments, prevent severe fragmentation and thus, enhance sustainability.

The role of planetary boundaries in assessing absolute environmental sustainability across scales

The idea of revisiting the biophysical limits of human life on planet Earth has gained renewed momentum in the Anthropocene. The planetary boundaries (PBs) framework has emerged as a strong guardrail concept, even though its capacity to inform the development of absolute sustainability assessments and realistic policies remains unclear. In this paper, we present a current synthesis of the development of absolute environmental sustainability (AES) indicators and assessments informed by PBs. We firstly explore how PBs have been considered in AES research at different scales. We then present a critique of how consensus could be reached in standardising and harmonising the share of globally and locally allocated safe operating spaces. We argue that PBs must be linked to human consumption as the main socio-economic driver and that planetary concerns can only be addressed through a holistic perspective that encompasses global tele-connections. Based on our findings, we provide recommendations for the future design of AES indicators and assessments informed by PBs.

Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality-of rising system-wide turbulence-calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations.

Effects of stochasticity and social norms on complex dynamics of fisheries

Recreational fishing is a highly socioecological process. Although recreational fisheries are self-regulating and resilient, changing anthropogenic pressure drives these fisheries to overharvest and collapse. Here, we evaluate the effect of demographic and environmental stochasticity for a social-ecological two-species fish model. In the presence of noise, we find that an increase in harvesting rate drives a critical transition from high-yield-low-price fisheries to low-yield-high-price fisheries. To calculate stochastic trajectories for demographic noise, we derive the master equation corresponding to the model and perform a Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, the analysis of the probabilistic potential and mean first-passage time reveals the resilience of alternative steady states. We also describe the efficacy of a few generic indicators in forecasting sudden transitions. Furthermore, we show that incorporating social norms on the model allows a moderate fish density to maintain despite higher harvesting rates. Overall, our study highlights the occurrence of critical transitions in a stochastic social-ecological model and suggests ways to mitigate them.

Population growth and climate change: Addressing the overlooked threat multiplier

Demographic trends will play a role in determining the magnitude of climate disruption and the ability of societies to adapt to it. Yet policy makers largely ignore the potential of fertility changes and population growth when designing policies to limit climate disruption and lessen its impacts. Here we argue that rights-based policy interventions could decrease fertility rates to levels consistent with low population pathways. We review country and global level studies that explore the effects of low population pathways on climate change mitigation and adaptation. We then provide rights-based policy recommendations, such as the expansion of voluntary family planning programs that incorporate elements from successful past programs, and highlight current research gaps. In concert with policies that end fossil fuel use and incentivize sustainable consumption, humane policies that slow population growth should be part of a multifaceted climate response. These policies require attention from scientists, policy analysts and politicians.

Agricultural land use and the sustainability of social-ecological systems

Agricultural land expansion and intensification, driven by human consumption of agricultural goods, are among the major threats to environmental degradation and biodiversity conservation. Land degradation can ultimately hamper agricultural production through a decrease in ecosystem services. Thus, designing viable land use policies is a key sustainability challenge. We develop a model describing the coupled dynamics of human demography and landscape composition, while imposing a trade-off between agricultural expansion and in-tensification. We model land use strategies spanning from low-intensity agriculture and high land conversion rates per person to high-intensity agriculture and low land conversion rates per person; and explore their consequences on the long-term dynamics of the coupled human-land system. We seek to characterise the strategies' viability in the long run; and understand the mechanisms that potentially lead to large-scale land degradation and population collapse due to resource scarcity. We show that the viability of land use strategies strongly depends on the land's intrinsic recovery rate. We also find that socio-ecological collapses occur when agricultural intensification is not accompanied by a sufficient decrease in land conversion. Based on these findings we stress the dangers of uninformed land use planning and the importance of precautionary behaviour for land use management and land use policy design.