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Astigarraga J, Esquivel-Muelbert A, Ruiz-Benito P, Rodríguez-Sánchez F, Zavala MA, Vilà-Cabrera A, Schelhaas MJ, Kunstler G, Woodall CW, Cienciala E, Dahlgren J, Govaere L, König LA, Lehtonen A, Talarczyk A, Liu D, Pugh TAM. Relative decline in density of Northern Hemisphere tree species in warm and arid regions of their climate niches. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2314899121. [PMID: 38954552 PMCID: PMC11252807 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2314899121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2023] [Accepted: 05/01/2024] [Indexed: 07/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Although climate change is expected to drive tree species toward colder and wetter regions of their distribution, broadscale empirical evidence is lacking. One possibility is that past and present human activities in forests obscure or alter the effects of climate. Here, using data from more than two million monitored trees from 73 widely distributed species, we quantify changes in tree species density within their climatic niches across Northern Hemisphere forests. We observe a reduction in mean density across species, coupled with a tendency toward increasing tree size. However, the direction and magnitude of changes in density exhibit considerable variability between species, influenced by stand development that results from previous stand-level disturbances. Remarkably, when accounting for stand development, our findings show a significant change in density toward cold and wet climatic conditions for 43% of the species, compared to only 14% of species significantly changing their density toward warm and arid conditions in both early- and late-development stands. The observed changes in climate-driven density showed no clear association with species traits related to drought tolerance, recruitment and dispersal capacity, or resource use, nor with the temperature or aridity affiliation of the species, leaving the underlying mechanism uncertain. Forest conservation policies and associated management strategies might want to consider anticipated long-term species range shifts alongside the integration of contemporary within-distribution density changes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julen Astigarraga
- Department of Life Sciences, Forest Ecology and Restoration Group (FORECO), Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares 28805, Spain
| | - Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, BirminghamB15 2TT, United Kingdom
- Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, BirminghamB15 2TT, United Kingdom
| | - Paloma Ruiz-Benito
- Department of Life Sciences, Forest Ecology and Restoration Group (FORECO), Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares 28805, Spain
- Department of Geology, Geography and Environment Science, Environmental Remote Sensing Research Group (GITA), Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares28801, Spain
| | | | - Miguel A. Zavala
- Department of Life Sciences, Forest Ecology and Restoration Group (FORECO), Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares 28805, Spain
- Universidad de Alcalá, Franklin Institute, Alcalá de Henares28801, Spain
| | - Albert Vilà-Cabrera
- Department of Life Sciences, Forest Ecology and Restoration Group (FORECO), Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares 28805, Spain
- Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Bellaterra (Cerdanyola de Vallès), CataloniaE08193, Spain
| | - Mart-Jan Schelhaas
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Team Sustainable Forest Ecosystems, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen6708 PB, The Netherlands
| | - Georges Kunstler
- Université Grenoble Alpes, Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Laboratoire EcoSystémes et Sociétés En Montagne (LESSEM), St.-Martin-d’Heres38402, France
| | - Christopher W. Woodall
- The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Durham, NH03824
| | - Emil Cienciala
- Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research (IFER), Research and Science, Jilove u Prahy254 01, Czech Republic
- Global Change Research Institute CAS, Department of Climate Change Impacts on Agroecosystems, Brno603 00, Czech Republic
| | - Jonas Dahlgren
- Department of Forest Resource and Management, Division of Forest Resource Data, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå90183, Sweden
| | - Leen Govaere
- Department of Policy and Strategy, Agency for Nature and Forests, Brussels1000, Belgium
| | - Louis A. König
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Team Sustainable Forest Ecosystems, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen6708 PB, The Netherlands
- Forest Ecology, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich, Zurich8092, Switzerland
| | | | - Andrzej Talarczyk
- Forest and Natural Resources Research Centre, Warsaw02-491, Poland
- Taxus IT, Warsaw02-491, Poland
| | - Daijun Liu
- Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, University of Vienna, Vienna1030, Austria
| | - Thomas A. M. Pugh
- School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, BirminghamB15 2TT, United Kingdom
- Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, BirminghamB15 2TT, United Kingdom
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, LundS-223 62, Sweden
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2
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Van Nuland ME, Qin C, Pellitier PT, Zhu K, Peay KG. Climate mismatches with ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute to migration lag in North American tree range shifts. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2308811121. [PMID: 38805274 PMCID: PMC11161776 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2308811121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2023] [Accepted: 04/05/2024] [Indexed: 05/30/2024] Open
Abstract
Climate change will likely shift plant and microbial distributions, creating geographic mismatches between plant hosts and essential microbial symbionts (e.g., ectomycorrhizal fungi, EMF). The loss of historical interactions, or the gain of novel associations, can have important consequences for biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and plant migration potential, yet few analyses exist that measure where mycorrhizal symbioses could be lost or gained across landscapes. Here, we examine climate change impacts on tree-EMF codistributions at the continent scale. We built species distribution models for 400 EMF species and 50 tree species, integrating fungal sequencing data from North American forest ecosystems with tree species occurrence records and long-term forest inventory data. Our results show the following: 1) tree and EMF climate suitability to shift toward higher latitudes; 2) climate shifts increase the size of shared tree-EMF habitat overall, but 35% of tree-EMF pairs are at risk of declining habitat overlap; 3) climate mismatches between trees and EMF are projected to be greater at northern vs. southern boundaries; and 4) tree migration lag is correlated with lower richness of climatically suitable EMF partners. This work represents a concentrated effort to quantify the spatial extent and location of tree-EMF climate envelope mismatches. Our findings also support a biotic mechanism partially explaining the failure of northward tree species migrations with climate change: reduced diversity of co-occurring and climate-compatible EMF symbionts at higher latitudes. We highlight the conservation implications for identifying areas where tree and EMF responses to climate change may be highly divergent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael E. Van Nuland
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
- Society for the Protection of Underground Networks, Dover, DE19901
| | - Clara Qin
- Society for the Protection of Underground Networks, Dover, DE19901
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA95064
| | | | - Kai Zhu
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA95064
- Institute for Global Change Biology, School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI48109
| | - Kabir G. Peay
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA94305
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3
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McNichol BH, Wang R, Hefner A, Helzer C, McMahon SM, Russo SE. Topography-driven microclimate gradients shape forest structure, diversity, and composition in a temperate refugial forest. PLANT-ENVIRONMENT INTERACTIONS (HOBOKEN, N.J.) 2024; 5:e10153. [PMID: 38863691 PMCID: PMC11166229 DOI: 10.1002/pei3.10153] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2024] [Revised: 05/15/2024] [Accepted: 05/21/2024] [Indexed: 06/13/2024]
Abstract
Macroclimate drives vegetation distributions, but fine-scale topographic variation can generate microclimate refugia for plant persistence in unsuitable areas. However, we lack quantitative descriptions of topography-driven microclimatic variation and how it shapes forest structure, diversity, and composition. We hypothesized that topographic variation and the presence of the forest overstory cause spatiotemporal microclimate variation affecting tree performance, causing forest structure, diversity, and composition to vary with topography and microclimate, and topography and the overstory to buffer microclimate. In a 20.2-ha inventory plot in the North American Great Plains, we censused woody stems ≥1 cm in diameter and collected detailed topographic and microclimatic data. Across 59-m of elevation, microclimate covaried with topography to create a sharp desiccation gradient, and topography and the overstory buffered understory microclimate. The magnitude of microclimatic variation mirrored that of regional-scale variation: with increasing elevation, there was a decrease in soil moisture corresponding to the difference across ~2.1° of longitude along the east-to-west aridity gradient and an increase in air temperature corresponding to the difference across ~2.7° of latitude along the north-to-south gradient. More complex forest structure and higher diversity occurred in moister, less-exposed habitats, and species occupied distinct topographic niches. Our study demonstrates how topographic and microclimatic gradients structure forests in putative climate-change refugia, by revealing ecological processes enabling populations to be maintained during periods of unfavorable macroclimate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bailey H. McNichol
- School of Biological SciencesUniversity of Nebraska–LincolnLincolnNebraskaUSA
| | - Ran Wang
- School of Natural ResourcesUniversity of Nebraska–LincolnLincolnNebraskaUSA
| | | | | | - Sean M. McMahon
- Smithsonian Institution Forest Global Earth ObservatorySmithsonian Environmental Research CenterEdgewaterMarylandUSA
| | - Sabrina E. Russo
- School of Biological SciencesUniversity of Nebraska–LincolnLincolnNebraskaUSA
- Center for Plant Science InnovationUniversity of Nebraska–LincolnLincolnNebraskaUSA
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4
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Whitman E, Barber QE, Jain P, Parks SA, Guindon L, Thompson DK, Parisien MA. A modest increase in fire weather overcomes resistance to fire spread in recently burned boreal forests. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17363. [PMID: 38864471 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17363] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2023] [Revised: 05/15/2024] [Accepted: 05/16/2024] [Indexed: 06/13/2024]
Abstract
Recently burned boreal forests have lower aboveground fuel loads, generating a negative feedback to subsequent wildfires. Despite this feedback, short-interval reburns (≤20 years between fires) are possible under extreme weather conditions. Reburns have consequences for ecosystem recovery, leading to enduring vegetation change. In this study, we characterize the strength of the fire-fuel feedback in recently burned Canadian boreal forests and the weather conditions that overwhelm resistance to fire spread in recently burned areas. We used a dataset of daily fire spread for thousands of large boreal fires, interpolated from remotely sensed thermal anomalies to which we associated local weather from ERA5-Land for each day of a fire's duration. We classified days with >3 ha of fire growth as spread days and defined burned pixels overlapping a fire perimeter ≤20 years old as short-interval reburns. Results of a logistic regression showed that the odds of fire spread in recently burned areas were ~50% lower than in long-interval fires; however, all Canadian boreal ecozones experienced short-interval reburning (1981-2021), with over 100,000 ha reburning annually. As fire weather conditions intensify, the resistance to fire spread declines, allowing fire to spread in recently burned areas. The weather associated with short-interval fire spread days was more extreme than the conditions during long-interval spread, but overall differences were modest (e.g. relative humidity 2.6% lower). The frequency of fire weather conducive to short-interval fire spread has significantly increased in the western boreal forest due to climate warming and drying (1981-2021). Our results suggest an ongoing degradation of fire-fuel feedbacks, which is likely to continue with climatic warming and drying.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ellen Whitman
- Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Quinn E Barber
- Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Piyush Jain
- Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Sean A Parks
- Rocky Mountain Research Station, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, USDA Forest Service, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Luc Guindon
- Laurentian Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada
| | - Dan K Thompson
- Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada
| | - Marc-André Parisien
- Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
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5
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Zheng X, Babst F, Camarero JJ, Li X, Lu X, Gao S, Sigdel SR, Wang Y, Zhu H, Liang E. Density-dependent species interactions modulate alpine treeline shifts. Ecol Lett 2024; 27:e14403. [PMID: 38577961 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14403] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2023] [Revised: 02/22/2024] [Accepted: 02/23/2024] [Indexed: 04/06/2024]
Abstract
Species interactions such as facilitation and competition play a crucial role in driving species range shifts. However, density dependence as a key feature of these processes has received little attention in both empirical and modelling studies. Herein, we used a novel, individual-based treeline model informed by rich in situ observations to quantify the contribution of density-dependent species interactions to alpine treeline dynamics, an iconic biome boundary recognized as an indicator of global warming. We found that competition and facilitation dominate in dense versus sparse vegetation scenarios respectively. The optimal balance between these two effects was identified at an intermediate vegetation thickness where the treeline elevation was the highest. Furthermore, treeline shift rates decreased sharply with vegetation thickness and the associated transition from positive to negative species interactions. We thus postulate that vegetation density must be considered when modelling species range dynamics to avoid inadequate predictions of its responses to climate warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiangyu Zheng
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Flurin Babst
- School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
| | | | - Xiaoxia Li
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoming Lu
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Shan Gao
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Shalik Ram Sigdel
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Yafeng Wang
- College of Biology and the Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, China
| | - Haifeng Zhu
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Eryuan Liang
- State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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6
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Wang J, D'Orangeville L, Taylor AR. Tree species growth response to climate warming varies by forest canopy position in boreal and temperate forests. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:5397-5414. [PMID: 37395653 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16853] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2023] [Accepted: 06/14/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023]
Abstract
Reports of forest sensitivity to climate change are based largely on the study of overstory trees, which contribute significantly to forest growth and wood supply. However, juveniles in the understory are also critical to predict future forest dynamics and demographics, but their sensitivity to climate remains less known. In this study, we applied boosted regression tree analysis to compare the sensitivity of understory and overstory trees for the 10 most common tree species in eastern North America using growth information from an unprecedented network of nearly 1.5 million tree records from 20,174 widely distributed, permanent sample plots across Canada and the United States. Fitted models were then used to project the near-term (2041-2070) growth for each canopy and tree species. We observed an overall positive effect of warming on tree growth for both canopies and most species, leading to an average of 7.8%-12.2% projected growth gains with climate change under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The magnitude of these gains peaked in colder, northern areas for both canopies, while growth declines are projected for overstory trees in warmer, southern regions. Relative to overstory trees, understory tree growth was less positively affected by warming in northern regions, while displaying more positive responses in southern areas, likely driven by the buffering effect of the canopy from warming and climate extremes. Observed differences in climatic sensitivity between canopy positions underscore the importance of accounting for differential growth responses to climate between forest strata in future studies to improve ecological forecasts. Furthermore, latitudinal variation in the differential sensitivity of forest strata to climate reported here may help refine our comprehension of species range shift and changes in suitable habitat under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiejie Wang
- Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Management, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada
| | - Loïc D'Orangeville
- Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Management, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada
| | - Anthony R Taylor
- Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Management, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada
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7
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Bogdziewicz M, Kelly D, Tanentzap AJ, Thomas P, Foest J, Lageard J, Hacket-Pain A. Reproductive collapse in European beech results from declining pollination efficiency in large trees. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023. [PMID: 37177909 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16730] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2023] [Accepted: 04/13/2023] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Climate warming increases tree mortality which will require sufficient reproduction to ensure population viability. However, the response of tree reproduction to climate change remains poorly understood. Warming can reduce synchrony and interannual variability of seed production ("masting breakdown") which can increase seed predation and decrease pollination efficiency in trees. Here, using 40 years of observations of individual seed production in European beech (Fagus sylvatica), we showed that masting breakdown results in declining viable seed production over time, in contrast to the positive trend apparent in raw seed count data. Furthermore, tree size modulates the consequences of masting breakdown on viable seed production. While seed predation increased over time mainly in small trees, pollination efficiency disproportionately decreased in larger individuals. Consequently, fecundity declined over time across all size classes, but the overall effect was greatest in large trees. Our study showed that a fundamental biological relationship-correlation between tree size and viable seed production-has been reversed as the climate has warmed. That reversal has diverse consequences for forest dynamics; including for stand- and biogeographical-level dynamics of forest regeneration. The tree size effects suggest management options to increase forest resilience under changing climates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michał Bogdziewicz
- Forest Biology Center, Institute of Environmental Biology, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland
| | - Dave Kelly
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
| | - Andrew J Tanentzap
- Ecosystems and Global Change Group, Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Peter Thomas
- School of Life Sciences, Keele University, Keele, UK
| | - Jessie Foest
- Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Jonathan Lageard
- Department of Natural Sciences, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
| | - Andrew Hacket-Pain
- Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
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8
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McNichol BH, Russo SE. Plant Species' Capacity for Range Shifts at the Habitat and Geographic Scales: A Trade-Off-Based Framework. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2023; 12:1248. [PMID: 36986935 PMCID: PMC10056461 DOI: 10.3390/plants12061248] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2023] [Revised: 02/18/2023] [Accepted: 02/20/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is causing rapid shifts in the abiotic and biotic environmental conditions experienced by plant populations, but we lack generalizable frameworks for predicting the consequences for species. These changes may cause individuals to become poorly matched to their environments, potentially inducing shifts in the distributions of populations and altering species' habitat and geographic ranges. We present a trade-off-based framework for understanding and predicting whether plant species may undergo range shifts, based on ecological strategies defined by functional trait variation. We define a species' capacity for undergoing range shifts as the product of its colonization ability and the ability to express a phenotype well-suited to the environment across life stages (phenotype-environment matching), which are both strongly influenced by a species' ecological strategy and unavoidable trade-offs in function. While numerous strategies may be successful in an environment, severe phenotype-environment mismatches result in habitat filtering: propagules reach a site but cannot establish there. Operating within individuals and populations, these processes will affect species' habitat ranges at small scales, and aggregated across populations, will determine whether species track climatic changes and undergo geographic range shifts. This trade-off-based framework can provide a conceptual basis for species distribution models that are generalizable across plant species, aiding in the prediction of shifts in plant species' ranges in response to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bailey H. McNichol
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, 1101 T Street, 402 Manter Hall, Lincoln, NE 68588-0118, USA;
| | - Sabrina E. Russo
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, 1101 T Street, 402 Manter Hall, Lincoln, NE 68588-0118, USA;
- Center for Plant Science Innovation, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, 1901 Vine Street, N300 Beadle Center, Lincoln, NE 68588-0118, USA
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9
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Boisvert‐Marsh L, Pedlar JH, de Blois S, Le Squin A, Lawrence K, McKenney DW, Williams C, Aubin I. Migration‐based simulations for Canadian trees show limited tracking of suitable climate under climate change. DIVERS DISTRIB 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13630] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Laura Boisvert‐Marsh
- Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Sault Ste Marie Ontario Canada
- Department of Plant Science Macdonald Campus of McGill University Ste‐Anne‐de‐Bellevue Quebec Canada
| | - John H. Pedlar
- Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Sault Ste Marie Ontario Canada
| | - Sylvie de Blois
- Department of Plant Science Macdonald Campus of McGill University Ste‐Anne‐de‐Bellevue Quebec Canada
- Bieler School of Environment McGill University Montreal Quebec Canada
| | - Amael Le Squin
- Département de Biologie Université de Sherbrooke Sherbrooke Quebec Canada
| | - Kevin Lawrence
- Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Sault Ste Marie Ontario Canada
| | - Daniel W. McKenney
- Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Sault Ste Marie Ontario Canada
| | - Charlene Williams
- Atlantic Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Fredericton New Brunswick Canada
- Vineland Research and Innovation Centre Lincoln Ontario Canada
| | - Isabelle Aubin
- Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service Natural Resources Canada Sault Ste Marie Ontario Canada
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10
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Bugmann H, Seidl R. The evolution, complexity and diversity of models of long-term forest dynamics. THE JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY 2022; 110:2288-2307. [PMID: 36632361 PMCID: PMC9826524 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13989] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2022] [Accepted: 08/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
To assess the impacts of climate change on vegetation from stand to global scales, models of forest dynamics that include tree demography are needed. Such models are now available for 50 years, but the currently existing diversity of model formulations and its evolution over time are poorly documented. This hampers systematic assessments of structural uncertainties in model-based studies.We conducted a meta-analysis of 28 models, focusing on models that were used in the past five years for climate change studies. We defined 52 model attributes in five groups (basic assumptions, growth, regeneration, mortality and soil moisture) and characterized each model according to these attributes. Analyses of model complexity and diversity included hierarchical cluster analysis and redundancy analysis.Model complexity evolved considerably over the past 50 years. Increases in complexity were largest for growth processes, while complexity of modelled establishment processes increased only moderately. Model diversity was lowest at the global scale, and highest at the landscape scale. We identified five distinct clusters of models, ranging from very simple models to models where specific attribute groups are rendered in a complex manner and models that feature high complexity across all attributes.Most models in use today are not balanced in the level of complexity with which they represent different processes. This is the result of different model purposes, but also reflects legacies in model code, modelers' preferences, and the 'prevailing spirit of the epoch'. The lack of firm theories, laws and 'first principles' in ecology provides high degrees of freedom in model development, but also results in high responsibilities for model developers and the need for rigorous model evaluation. Synthesis. The currently available model diversity is beneficial: convergence in simulations of structurally different models indicates robust projections, while convergence of similar models may convey a false sense of certainty. The existing model diversity-with the exception of global models-can be exploited for improved projections based on multiple models. We strongly recommend balanced further developments of forest models that should particularly focus on establishment and mortality processes, in order to provide robust information for decisions in ecosystem management and policymaking.
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Affiliation(s)
- Harald Bugmann
- Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Department of Environmental Systems ScienceETH ZurichZürichSwitzerland
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest ManagementTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest ManagementTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
- Berchtesgaden National ParkBerchtesgadenGermany
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11
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Russo SE, Ledder G, Muller EB, Nisbet RM. Dynamic Energy Budget models: fertile ground for understanding resource allocation in plants in a changing world. CONSERVATION PHYSIOLOGY 2022; 10:coac061. [PMID: 36128259 PMCID: PMC9477497 DOI: 10.1093/conphys/coac061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2022] [Revised: 06/08/2022] [Accepted: 08/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is having dramatic effects on the diversity and distribution of species. Many of these effects are mediated by how an organism's physiological patterns of resource allocation translate into fitness through effects on growth, survival and reproduction. Empirically, resource allocation is challenging to measure directly and so has often been approached using mathematical models, such as Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) models. The fact that all plants require a very similar set of exogenous resources, namely light, water and nutrients, integrates well with the DEB framework in which a small number of variables and processes linked through pathways represent an organism's state as it changes through time. Most DEB theory has been developed in reference to animals and microorganisms. However, terrestrial vascular plants differ from these organisms in fundamental ways that make resource allocation, and the trade-offs and feedbacks arising from it, particularly fundamental to their life histories, but also challenging to represent using existing DEB theory. Here, we describe key features of the anatomy, morphology, physiology, biochemistry, and ecology of terrestrial vascular plants that should be considered in the development of a generic DEB model for plants. We then describe possible approaches to doing so using existing DEB theory and point out features that may require significant development for DEB theory to accommodate them. We end by presenting a generic DEB model for plants that accounts for many of these key features and describing gaps that would need to be addressed for DEB theory to predict the responses of plants to climate change. DEB models offer a powerful and generalizable framework for modelling resource allocation in terrestrial vascular plants, and our review contributes a framework for expansion and development of DEB theory to address how plants respond to anthropogenic change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sabrina E Russo
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Nebraska, 1104 T Street Lincoln, Nebraska 68588-0118, USA
- Center for Plant Science Innovation, University of Nebraska, 1901 Vine Street, N300 Beadle Center, Lincoln, Nebraska 68588-0660, USA
| | - Glenn Ledder
- Department of Mathematics, University of Nebraska, 203 Avery Hall, Lincoln, Nebraska 68588-0130, USA
| | - Erik B Muller
- Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106, USA
- Institut für Biologische Analytik und Consulting IBACON GmbH, Arheilger Weg 17 Roß dorf, Hesse D-64380, Germany
| | - Roger M Nisbet
- Marine Science Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106, USA
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106, USA
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12
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Journé V, Andrus R, Aravena MC, Ascoli D, Berretti R, Berveiller D, Bogdziewicz M, Boivin T, Bonal R, Caignard T, Calama R, Camarero JJ, Chang-Yang CH, Courbaud B, Courbet F, Curt T, Das AJ, Daskalakou E, Davi H, Delpierre N, Delzon S, Dietze M, Donoso Calderon S, Dormont L, Maria Espelta J, Fahey TJ, Farfan-Rios W, Gehring CA, Gilbert GS, Gratzer G, Greenberg CH, Guo Q, Hacket-Pain A, Hampe A, Han Q, Lambers JHR, Hoshizaki K, Ibanez I, Johnstone JF, Kabeya D, Kays R, Kitzberger T, Knops JMH, Kobe RK, Kunstler G, Lageard JGA, LaMontagne JM, Leininger T, Limousin JM, Lutz JA, Macias D, McIntire EJB, Moore CM, Moran E, Motta R, Myers JA, Nagel TA, Noguchi K, Ourcival JM, Parmenter R, Pearse IS, Perez-Ramos IM, Piechnik L, Poulsen J, Poulton-Kamakura R, Qiu T, Redmond MD, Reid CD, Rodman KC, Rodriguez-Sanchez F, Sanguinetti JD, Scher CL, Marle HSV, Seget B, Sharma S, Silman M, Steele MA, Stephenson NL, Straub JN, Swenson JJ, Swift M, Thomas PA, Uriarte M, Vacchiano G, Veblen TT, Whipple AV, Whitham TG, Wright B, Wright SJ, Zhu K, Zimmerman JK, Zlotin R, Zywiec M, Clark JS. Globally, tree fecundity exceeds productivity gradients. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:1471-1482. [PMID: 35460530 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2021] [Revised: 03/29/2022] [Accepted: 04/01/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Lack of tree fecundity data across climatic gradients precludes the analysis of how seed supply contributes to global variation in forest regeneration and biotic interactions responsible for biodiversity. A global synthesis of raw seedproduction data shows a 250-fold increase in seed abundance from cold-dry to warm-wet climates, driven primarily by a 100-fold increase in seed production for a given tree size. The modest (threefold) increase in forest productivity across the same climate gradient cannot explain the magnitudes of these trends. The increase in seeds per tree can arise from adaptive evolution driven by intense species interactions or from the direct effects of a warm, moist climate on tree fecundity. Either way, the massive differences in seed supply ramify through food webs potentially explaining a disproportionate role for species interactions in the wet tropics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Valentin Journé
- Universite Grenoble Alpes, Institut National de Recherche pour Agriculture, Alimentation et Environnement (INRAE), Laboratoire EcoSystemes et Societes En Montagne (LESSEM), St. Martin-d'Heres, France
| | - Robert Andrus
- Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Marie-Claire Aravena
- Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y de la Conservacion de la Naturaleza (FCFCN), Santiago, Chile
| | - Davide Ascoli
- Department of Agriculture, Forest and Food Sciences, University of Torino, Grugliasco, TO, Italy
| | - Roberta Berretti
- Department of Agriculture, Forest and Food Sciences, University of Torino, Grugliasco, TO, Italy
| | - Daniel Berveiller
- Universite Paris-Saclay, Centre national de la recherche scientifique, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systematique et Evolution, Orsay, France
| | - Michal Bogdziewicz
- Department of Systematic Zoology, Faculty of Biology, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland
| | - Thomas Boivin
- Institut National de Recherche pour Agriculture, Alimentation et Environnement (INRAE), Ecologie des Forets Mediterranennes, Avignon, France
| | - Raul Bonal
- Department of Biodiversity, Ecology and Evolution, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
| | - Thomas Caignard
- Universite Bordeaux, Institut National de Recherche pour Agriculture, Alimentation et Environnement (INRAE), Biodiversity, Genes, and Communities (BIOGECO), Pessac, France
| | - Rafael Calama
- Centro de Investigacion Forestal (INIA-CSIC), Madrid, Spain
| | - Jesús Julio Camarero
- Instituto Pirenaico de Ecologla, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (IPE-CSIC), Zaragoza, Spain
| | - Chia-Hao Chang-Yang
- Department of Biological Sciences, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
| | - Benoit Courbaud
- Universite Grenoble Alpes, Institut National de Recherche pour Agriculture, Alimentation et Environnement (INRAE), Laboratoire EcoSystemes et Societes En Montagne (LESSEM), St. Martin-d'Heres, France
| | - Francois Courbet
- Institut National de Recherche pour Agriculture, Alimentation et Environnement (INRAE), Ecologie des Forets Mediterranennes, Avignon, France
| | - Thomas Curt
- Aix Marseille universite, Institut National de Recherche pour Agriculture, Alimentation et Environnement (IN-RAE), Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Adrian J Das
- USGS Western Ecological Research Center, Three Rivers, California, USA
| | - Evangelia Daskalakou
- Institute of Mediterranean and Forest Ecosystems, HellenicAgricultural Organization ¨ DEMETER¨, Athens, Greece
| | - Hendrik Davi
- Institut National de Recherche pour Agriculture, Alimentation et Environnement (INRAE), Ecologie des Forets Mediterranennes, Avignon, France
| | - Nicolas Delpierre
- Universite Paris-Saclay, Centre national de la recherche scientifique, AgroParisTech, Ecologie Systematique et Evolution, Orsay, France
| | - Sylvain Delzon
- Universite Bordeaux, Institut National de Recherche pour Agriculture, Alimentation et Environnement (INRAE), Biodiversity, Genes, and Communities (BIOGECO), Pessac, France
| | - Michael Dietze
- Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Sergio Donoso Calderon
- Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y de la Conservacion de la Naturaleza (FCFCN), Santiago, Chile
| | - Laurent Dormont
- Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Montpellier, France
| | - Josep Maria Espelta
- Centre de Recerca Ecologica i Aplicacions Forestals (CREAF), Bellaterra, Catalunya, Spain
| | - Timothy J Fahey
- Natural Resources, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
| | - William Farfan-Rios
- Center for Conservation and Sustainable Development, Washington University in Saint Louis, Missouri Botanical Garden, St. Louis, Missouri, USA
| | - Catherine A Gehring
- Department of Biological Sciences and Center for Adaptive Western Landscapes, University of Northern Arizona, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Gregory S Gilbert
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - Georg Gratzer
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences and Institute of Forest Ecology, Wien, Austria
| | - Cathryn H Greenberg
- Bent Creek Experimental Forest, USDA Forest Service, Asheville, North Carolina, USA
| | - Qinfeng Guo
- Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Asheville, North Carolina, USA
| | - Andrew Hacket-Pain
- Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Arndt Hampe
- Universite Bordeaux, Institut National de Recherche pour Agriculture, Alimentation et Environnement (INRAE), Biodiversity, Genes, and Communities (BIOGECO), Pessac, France
| | - Qingmin Han
- Department of Plant Ecology Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI), Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
| | | | - Kazuhiko Hoshizaki
- Department of Biological Environment, Akita Prefectural University, Akita, Japan
| | - Ines Ibanez
- School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Jill F Johnstone
- Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
| | - Daisuke Kabeya
- Department of Plant Ecology Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI), Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
| | - Roland Kays
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, NC State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | - Thomas Kitzberger
- Department of Ecology, Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Tecnicas - Universidad Nacional del Comahue), Bariloche, Argentina
| | - Johannes M H Knops
- Health and Environmental Sciences Department, Xian Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, China
| | - Richard K Kobe
- Department of Plant Biology, Program in Ecology, Evolutionary Biology, and Behavior, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | - Georges Kunstler
- Universite Grenoble Alpes, Institut National de Recherche pour Agriculture, Alimentation et Environnement (INRAE), Laboratoire EcoSystemes et Societes En Montagne (LESSEM), St. Martin-d'Heres, France
| | - Jonathan G A Lageard
- Department of Natural Sciences, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
| | - Jalene M LaMontagne
- Department of Biological Sciences, DePaul University, Chicago, Illinois, USA
| | - Theodor Leininger
- USDA, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Stoneville, Mississippi, USA
| | | | - James A Lutz
- Department of Wildland Resources, and the Ecology Center, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA
| | - Diana Macias
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
| | | | | | - Emily Moran
- School of Natural Sciences, UC Merced, Merced, California, USA
| | - Renzo Motta
- Department of Agriculture, Forest and Food Sciences, University of Torino, Grugliasco, TO, Italy
| | - Jonathan A Myers
- Department of Biology, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri, USA
| | - Thomas A Nagel
- Department of forestry and renewable forest resources, Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - Kyotaro Noguchi
- Tohoku Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Morioka, Iwate, Japan
| | | | - Robert Parmenter
- Valles Caldera National Preserve, National Park Service, Jemez Springs, New Mexico, USA
| | - Ian S Pearse
- Fort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Ignacio M Perez-Ramos
- Inst. de Recursos Naturales y Agrobiologia de Sevilla, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (IRNAS-CSIC), Seville, Andalucia, Spain
| | - Lukasz Piechnik
- W. Szafer Institute of Botany, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow, Poland
| | - John Poulsen
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | | | - Tong Qiu
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Miranda D Redmond
- Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Chantal D Reid
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Kyle C Rodman
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | | | - Javier D Sanguinetti
- Bilogo Dpto. Conservacin y Manejo Parque Nacional Lanin Elordi y Perito Moreno 8370, San Marten de los Andes, Argentina
| | - C Lane Scher
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Harald Schmidt Van Marle
- Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales y de la Conservacion de la Naturaleza (FCFCN), Santiago, Chile
| | - Barbara Seget
- W. Szafer Institute of Botany, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow, Poland
| | - Shubhi Sharma
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Miles Silman
- Department of Biology, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA
| | - Michael A Steele
- Department of Biology, Wilkes University, Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, USA
| | | | - Jacob N Straub
- Department of Environmental Science and Ecology, State University of New York-Brockport, Brockport, New York, USA
| | - Jennifer J Swenson
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Margaret Swift
- Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Peter A Thomas
- School of Life Sciences, Keele University, Staffordshire, UK
| | - Maria Uriarte
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Giorgio Vacchiano
- Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences - Production, Territory, Agroenergy (DISAA), University of Milan, Milano, Italy
| | - Thomas T Veblen
- Department of Geography, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Amy V Whipple
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Thomas G Whitham
- Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Boyd Wright
- Botany, School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, New South Wales, Australia
| | - S Joseph Wright
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa, Republic of Panama
| | - Kai Zhu
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - Jess K Zimmerman
- Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Puerto Rico, Rio Piedras, Puerto Rico, USA
| | - Roman Zlotin
- Geography Department and Russian and East European Institute, Bloomington, Indiana, USA
| | - Magdalena Zywiec
- W. Szafer Institute of Botany, Polish Academy of Sciences, Krakow, Poland
| | - James S Clark
- Universite Grenoble Alpes, Institut National de Recherche pour Agriculture, Alimentation et Environnement (INRAE), Laboratoire EcoSystemes et Societes En Montagne (LESSEM), St. Martin-d'Heres, France.,Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
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13
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Abstract
Masting, or synchronous production of large seed crops, is widespread among plants. The predator satiation hypothesis states that masting evolved to overwhelm seed predators with an excess of food. Yet, this popular explanation faced few rigorous tests. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies that related the magnitude of seed production to the intensity of seed predation. Our results validate certain theoretical notions (e.g., that predator satiation is more effective at higher latitudes) but challenge others (e.g., that specialist and generalist consumers differ in the type of functional response to masting). We also found that masting is losing its ability to satiate consumers, probably because global warming affected masting patterns. This shift might considerably impair the reproduction of masting plants. Predator satiation is the most commonly tested hypothesis that explains the evolutionary advantages of masting. It proposes that masting benefits plant reproduction by reducing the proportion of seed crop that is consumed by predators. This hypothesis is widely accepted, but many theoretical notions about predator satiation have not been subjected to a robust evaluation. To address this issue, we conducted a meta-analysis of studies that quantified seed predation in relation to mast seeding. We found evidence of both numerical (starvation between mast years) and functional (satiation during mast years) response of consumers to masting. These two effects reinforced each other. Masting satiated invertebrate but not vertebrate seed predators. Satiation was more pronounced at higher, temperate, and boreal latitudes, perhaps because masting is more effective in reducing seed losses when plant communities are less diverse. The effectiveness of masting in satiating invertebrate consumers declined over time (1972 to 2018), probably reflecting the impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of masting. If masting ceases to reduce seed losses, a crucial advantage of this reproductive strategy will be lost, and sustainability of many tree populations will decline.
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14
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Moran EV, Thuiller W, Angert AL, Benito Garzón M. Editorial: Predicting and Managing Climate-Driven Range Shifts in Plants. Front Ecol Evol 2022. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2022.856213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
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