Infectious and clinical tuberculosis trajectories: Bayesian modeling with case finding implications

Transmission of tuberculosis in rural Henan, China: a prospective population-based genomic spatial epidemiological study

The incidence of tuberculosis (TB) has declined more slowly in rural than urban areas in China, and data on the patterns of transmission and the high-risk populations in rural areas remains scarce. We conducted a population-based study of culture-positive pulmonary TB patients diagnosed in rural Linzhou City, Henan Province from July 2018 to February 2023. Genomic clusters were defined based on whole-genome sequencing and risk factors for clustering were identified by logistic regression. Transmission events were inferred with phybreak and transmission links were sought through epidemiological investigation of clustered patients. Logistic regression was used to explore the relationship between genomic differences of patient isolates and geographical distances of patient residences. Spatial hotspots were defined using kernel density estimation. Of 455 culture-positive patients, 430 were included in the final analysis. Overall, 192 (44.7%,192/430) patients were grouped into 49 clusters. Clusters containing ≥5 patients accounted for 18.4% (9/49) of the clusters and clustering was highest in student patients. No super-spreaders were detected. Confirmed epidemiologic links were identified for only 18.2% of clustered patients. The clustering risk decreased rapidly with increasing distances between patient residences, but 77.6% of clustered patient pairs lived ≥5.0 km apart. Both the Central Subdistrict and Rencun Township were identified as hotspots for TB transmission. Recent transmission appears to be an important driver of the TB burden in Linzhou. The formulation of effective strategies to reduce TB incidence in rural areas will require further studies to identify high-risk populations and venues where local inhabitants congregate and transmit the infection.

Real-world diagnostic accuracy of lipoarabinomannan in three non-sputum biospecimens for pulmonary tuberculosis disease

BACKGROUND

Development of a non-sputum test using readily-obtainable biospecimens remains a global priority for tuberculosis (TB) control. We quantified lipoarabinomannan (LAM) concentrations, a pathogen biomarker for Mycobacterium tuberculosis, in urine, plasma and serum for real-world diagnostic accuracy of pulmonary TB among people living with and without HIV.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective diagnostic study among adults with TB symptoms in South Africa. We measured LAM concentrations in time-matched urine, plasma and serum with an electrochemiluminescence immunoassay using two capture antibodies (FIND 28 and S4-20). From the completed cohort, we randomly selected 210 participants (2 cases: 1 control) based on sensitivity estimates, and we compared diagnostic accuracy of LAM measurements against the microbiological reference standard.

FINDINGS

Urine and blood specimens from 210 of 684 adults enrolled were tested for LAM. Among 138 TB-positive adults (41% female), median urine LAM was 137 pg/mL and 52 pg/mL by FIND 28 and S4-20, respectively. Average LAM concentrations were highest in HIV-positive participants with CD4+ T cells <200 cells/mm3. Urine LAM by S4-20 achieved diagnostic sensitivity of 62% (95% CI: 53%-70%) and specificity of 99% (95% CI: 96%-100%). Plasma and serum LAM by FIND 28 showed similar sensitivity (70%, 95% CI: 62%-78%) and comparable specificities (90%, 95% CI: 82%-97%; 94%, 95% CI: 88%-99%). Diagnostic sensitivity of urine LAM by S4-20 was higher among participants without HIV (41%, 95% CI: 24%-61%) compared to HIV-positive participants with CD4 ≥200 cells/mm3 (20%, 95% CI: 8%-39%).

INTERPRETATION

Detection of LAM was achievable in non-sputum specimens for pulmonary TB, but additional analyte concentration or signal amplification may be required to achieve diagnostic accuracy targets.

FUNDING

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

For Tuberculosis, Not "To Screen or Not to Screen?" but "Who?" and "How?"

Active case finding leveraging new molecular diagnostics and chest X-rays with automated interpretation algorithms is increasingly being developed for high-risk populations to drive down tuberculosis incidence. We consider why such an approach did not deliver a decline in tuberculosis prevalence in Brazilian prison populations and what to consider next.

Accuracy of C-Reactive Protein for Tuberculosis Detection in General-Population Screening and Ambulatory-Care Triage in Uganda

Rationale: C-reactive protein (CRP) has demonstrated utility as a point-of-care triage test for tuberculosis (TB) in clinical settings, particularly among people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), but its performance for general-population TB screening is not well characterized. Objective: To assess the accuracy of CRP for detecting pulmonary TB disease among individuals undergoing community-based screening or presenting for evaluation of TB symptoms in Kampala, Uganda. Methods: We pooled data from two case-control studies conducted between May 2018 and December 2022 among adolescents and adults (⩾15 yr) in Kampala, Uganda. We conducted community-based screening for TB, regardless of symptoms. We enrolled people with Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra-positive (including trace) sputum results and a sample of people with Ultra-negative results. We also enrolled symptomatic patients diagnosed with TB and controls with negative TB evaluations from ambulatory care settings. Participants underwent further evaluation, including sputum culture, CRP, and HIV testing. We assessed the accuracy of CRP alone or with symptom screening against a bacteriologic reference standard. Our primary analysis evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of CRP at a cutoff of 5 mg/L. Diagnostic performance was summarized by calculating the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Results: In the community setting (n = 544), CRP ⩾ 5 mg/L had a sensitivity of 55.3% (95% confidence interval, 47.0-63.4%) and specificity of 84.7% (79.7-88.8%) for confirmed TB; AUC was 0.75 (0.70-0.79). Screening for CRP ⩾ 5 mg/L or positive symptoms increased sensitivity to 92.0% (86.4-95.8%) at the expense of specificity (57.1% [50.8-63.2%]). In the ambulatory care setting (n = 944), sensitivity of CRP ⩾ 5 mg/L was 86.7% (81.8-90.7%), specificity was 68.6% (64.8-72.2%), and AUC (0.84 [0.81-0.87]) did not differ significantly by HIV status. CRP ⩾ 5 mg/L was >90% sensitive among individuals with a medium or high semiquantitative Xpert result in both settings. Conclusions: Although CRP did not meet World Health Organization (WHO) TB screening benchmarks in the community, it demonstrated high specificity, and sensitivity was high among individuals with high sputum bacillary burden who are likely to be most infectious. In ambulatory care, estimated sensitivity and specificity were each within 4 percentage points of WHO benchmarks, with no meaningful difference in performance by HIV status.

Classification of early tuberculosis states to guide research for improved care and prevention: an international Delphi consensus exercise

The current active-latent paradigm of tuberculosis largely neglects the documented spectrum of disease. Inconsistency with regard to definitions, terminology, and diagnostic criteria for different tuberculosis states has limited the progress in research and product development that are needed to achieve tuberculosis elimination. We aimed to develop a new framework of classification for tuberculosis that accommodates key disease states but is sufficiently simple to support pragmatic research and implementation. Through an international Delphi exercise that involved 71 participants representing a wide range of disciplines, sectors, income settings, and geographies, consensus was reached on a set of conceptual states, related terminology, and research gaps. The International Consensus for Early TB (ICE-TB) framework distinguishes disease from infection by the presence of macroscopic pathology and defines two subclinical and two clinical tuberculosis states on the basis of reported symptoms or signs of tuberculosis, further differentiated by likely infectiousness. The presence of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis and an associated host response are prerequisites for all states of infection and disease. Our framework provides a clear direction for tuberculosis research, which will, in time, improve tuberculosis clinical care and elimination policies.

Subclinical tuberculosis: a meta-analysis of prevalence and scoping review of definitions, prevalence and clinical characteristics

BACKGROUND

This scoping review aimed to characterise definitions used to describe subclinical tuberculosis (TB), estimate the prevalence in different populations and describe the clinical characteristics and treatment outcomes in the scientific literature.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed. We included studies published in English between January 1990 and August 2022 that defined "subclinical" or "asymptomatic" pulmonary TB disease, regardless of age, HIV status and comorbidities. We estimated the weighted pooled proportions of subclinical TB using a random-effects model by World Health Organization reported TB incidence, populations and settings. We also pooled the proportion of subclinical TB according to definitions described in published prevalence surveys.

RESULTS

We identified 29 prevalence surveys and 71 other studies. Prevalence survey data (2002-2022) using "absence of cough of any duration" criteria reported higher subclinical TB prevalence than those using the stricter "completely asymptomatic" threshold. Prevalence estimates overlap in studies using other symptoms and cough duration. Subclinical TB in studies was commonly defined as asymptomatic TB disease. Higher prevalence was reported in high TB burden areas, community settings and immunocompetent populations. People with subclinical TB showed less extensive radiographic abnormalities, higher treatment success rates and lower mortality, although studies were few.

CONCLUSION

A substantial proportion of TB is subclinical. However, prevalence estimates were highly heterogeneous between settings. Most published studies incompletely characterised the phenotype of people with subclinical TB. Standardised definitions and diagnostic criteria are needed to characterise this phenotype. Further research is required to enhance case finding, screening, diagnostics and treatment options for subclinical TB.

Activin A levels are raised during human tuberculosis and blockade of the activin signaling axis influences murine responses to M. tuberculosis infection

Activin A strongly influences immune responses; yet, few studies have examined its role in infectious diseases. We measured serum activin A levels in two independent tuberculosis (TB) patient cohorts and in patients with pneumonia and sarcoidosis. Serum activin A levels were increased in TB patients compared to healthy controls, including those with positive tuberculin skin tests, and paralleled severity of disease, assessed by X-ray scores. In pneumonia patients, serum activin A levels were also raised, but in sarcoidosis patients, levels were lower. To determine whether blockade of the activin A signaling axis could play a functional role in TB, we harnessed a soluble activin type IIB receptor fused to human IgG1 Fc, ActRIIB-Fc, as a ligand trap in a murine TB model. The administration of ActRIIB-Fc to Mycobacterium tuberculosis-infected mice resulted in decreased bacterial loads and increased numbers of CD4 effector T cells and tissue-resident memory T cells in the lung. Increased frequencies of tissue-resident memory T cells corresponded with downregulated T-bet expression in lung CD4 and CD8 T cells. Altogether, the results suggest a disease-exacerbating role of ActRIIB signaling pathways. Serum activin A may be useful as a biomarker for diagnostic triage of active TB or monitoring of anti-tuberculosis therapy.

IMPORTANCE

Tuberculosis remains the leading cause of death by a bacterial pathogen. The etiologic agent of tuberculosis, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, can remain dormant in the infected host for years before causing disease. Significant effort has been made to identify biomarkers that can discriminate between latently infected and actively diseased individuals. We found that serum levels of the cytokine activin A were associated with increased lung pathology and could discriminate between active tuberculosis and tuberculin skin-test-positive healthy controls. Activin A signals through the ActRIIB receptor, which can be blocked by administration of the ligand trap ActRIIB-Fc, a soluble activin type IIB receptor fused to human IgG1 Fc. In a murine model of tuberculosis, we found that ActRIIB-Fc treatment reduced mycobacterial loads. Strikingly, ActRIIB-Fc treatment significantly increased the number of tissue-resident memory T cells. These results suggest a role for ActRIIB signaling pathways in host responses to Mycobacterium tuberculosis and activin A as a biomarker of ongoing disease.

Outcomes for people with TB by disease severity at presentation

BACKGROUND

There is substantial heterogeneity in disease presentation for individuals with TB disease, which may correlate with disease outcomes. We estimated disease outcomes by disease severity at presentation among individuals with TB during the pre-chemotherapy era.

METHODS

We extracted data on people with TB enrolled between 1917 and 1948 in the USA, stratified by three disease severity categories at presentation using the U.S. National Tuberculosis Association diagnostic criteria. These criteria were based largely on radiographic findings ("minimal", "moderately advanced", and "far advanced"). We used Bayesian parametric survival analysis to model the survival distribution overall, and by disease severity and Bayesian logistic regression to estimate the severity-level specific natural recovery odds within 3 years.

RESULTS

People with minimal TB at presentation had a 2% (95% CrI 0-11%) probability of TB death within 5 years vs. 40% (95% CrI 15-68) for those with far advanced disease. Individuals with minimal disease had 13.62 times the odds (95% CrI 9.87-19.10) of natural recovery within 3 years vs. those with far advanced disease.

CONCLUSION

Mortality and natural recovery vary by disease severity at presentation. This supports continued work to evaluate individualized (e.g., shortened or longer) regimens based on disease severity at presentation, identified using radiography..

Reevaluating progression and pathways following Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection within the spectrum of tuberculosis

Traditional understanding of the risk of progression from Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection to tuberculosis (TB) overlooks diverse presentations across a spectrum of disease. We developed a deterministic model of Mtb infection and minimal (pathological damage but not infectious), subclinical (infectious but no reported symptoms), and clinical (infectious and symptomatic) TB, informed by a rigorous evaluation of data from a systematic review of TB natural history. Using a Bayesian approach, we calibrated the model to data from historical cohorts that followed tuberculin-negative individuals to tuberculin conversion and TB, as well as data from cohorts that followed progression and regression between disease states, disease state prevalence ratios, disease duration, and mortality. We estimated incidence, pathways, and 10-y outcomes following Mtb infection for a simulated cohort. Then, 92.0% (95% uncertainty interval, UI, 91.4 to 92.5) of individuals self-cleared within 10 y of infection, while 7.9% (95% UI 7.4 to 8.5) progressed to TB. Of those, 68.6% (95% UI 65.4 to 72.0) developed infectious disease, and 33.2% (95% UI 29.9 to 36.4) progressed to clinical disease. While 98% of progression to minimal disease occurred within 2 y of infection, only 71% and 44% of subclinical and clinical disease, respectively, occurred within this period. Multiple progression pathways from infection were necessary to calibrate the model and 49.5% (95% UI 45.6 to 53.7) of those who developed infectious disease undulated between disease states. We identified heterogeneous pathways across disease states after Mtb infection, highlighting the need for clearly defined disease thresholds to inform more effective prevention and treatment efforts to end TB.

Evaluation of the Cepheid 3-gene host response blood test for tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment response monitoring in a primary-level clinic in rural China

A rapid, accurate, non-sputum-based triage test for diagnosing tuberculosis (TB) is a high-priority need. Cepheid developed a novel prototype blood test, Xpert Mycobacterium tuberculosis Host Response (Xpert-MTB-HR), which generates a TB score based on the mRNA expression of three genes. We conducted a case-control study with prospective recruitment to evaluate its accuracy in the clinic of the Wusheng County Centers for Disease Prevention and Control in China. We enrolled 149 TB patients, 248 other respiratory diseases (ORD) patients, and 193 healthy controls. In addition, whole-blood samples taken from TB patients after 2, 5, and 6 months of treatment were tested with Xpert-MTB-HR to evaluate its ability to monitor treatment response. Xpert-MTB-HR discriminated between TB and healthy controls with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.912 (95% CI, 0.878-0.945). With the specificity of 70% envisioned for a triage test, its sensitivity was 90.1% (84.9%-94.6%). Xpert-MTB-HR discriminated between TB and ORD with an AUC of 0.798 (0.750-0.847), and at specificity of 70%, the sensitivity was only 75.8% (68.5%-82.8%). In patients determined by Ultra to have medium or high sputum bacillary loads, with specificity of 70%, the sensitivity for discriminating patients with TB from healthy controls was 100.0% (100.0-100.0) and from patients with ORD, 95.1% (89.8-100.0). The TB scores generally increased by 2 months of treatment and then remained stable. Xpert-MTB-HR met the criteria for a triage test to discriminate between TB and healthy controls, but not between TB and ORD, except when limited to patients with high sputum bacillary loads. Xpert-MTB-HR showed promise for monitoring response to treatment but needs to be further evaluated in larger prospective studies.

Vaccine development against tuberculosis before and after Covid-19

Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) has not only shaped awareness of the impact of infectious diseases on global health. It has also provided instructive lessons for better prevention strategies against new and current infectious diseases of major importance. Tuberculosis (TB) is a major current health threat caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) which has claimed more lives than any other pathogen over the last few centuries. Hence, better intervention measures, notably novel vaccines, are urgently needed to accomplish the goal of the World Health Organization to end TB by 2030. This article describes how the research and development of TB vaccines can benefit from recent developments in the Covid-19 vaccine pipeline from research to clinical development and outlines how the field of TB research can pursue its own approaches. It begins with a brief discussion of major vaccine platforms in general terms followed by a short description of the most widely applied Covid-19 vaccines. Next, different vaccination regimes and particular hurdles for TB vaccine research and development are described. This specifically considers the complex immune mechanisms underlying protection and pathology in TB which involve innate as well as acquired immune mechanisms and strongly depend on fine tuning the response. A brief description of the TB vaccine candidates that have entered clinical trials follows. Finally, it discusses how experiences from Covid-19 vaccine research, development, and rollout can and have been applied to the TB vaccine pipeline, emphasizing similarities and dissimilarities.

Genotypic and spatial analysis of transmission dynamics of tuberculosis in Shanghai, China: a 10-year prospective population-based surveillance study

Background

With improved tuberculosis (TB) control programs, the incidence of TB in China declined dramatically over the past few decades, but recently the rate of decrease has slowed, especially in large cities such as Shanghai. To help formulate strategies to further reduce TB incidence, we performed a 10-year study in Songjiang, a district of Shanghai, to delineate the characteristics, transmission patterns, and dynamic changes of the local TB burden.

Methods

We conducted a population-based study of culture-positive pulmonary TB patients diagnosed in Songjiang during 2011-2020. Genomic clusters were defined with a threshold distance of 12-single-nucleotide-polymorphisms based on whole-genome sequencing, and risk factors for clustering were identified by logistic regression. Transmission inference was performed using phybreak. The distances between the residences of patients were compared to the genomic distances of their isolates. Spatial patient hotspots were defined with kernel density estimation.

Findings

Of 2212 enrolled patients, 74.7% (1652/2212) were internal migrants. The clustering rate (25.2%, 558/2212) and spatial concentrations of clustered and unclustered patients were unchanged over the study period. Migrants had significantly higher TB rates but less clustering than residents. Clustering was highest in male migrants, younger patients and both residents and migrants employed in physical labor. Only 22.1% of transmission events occurred between residents and migrants, with residents more likely to transmit to migrants. The clustering risk decreased rapidly with increasing distances between patient residences, but more than half of clustered patient pairs lived ≥5 km apart. Epidemiologic links were identified for only 15.6% of clustered patients, mostly in close contacts.

Interpretation

Although some of the TB in Songjiang's migrant population is caused by strains brought by infected migrants, local, recent transmission is an important driver of the TB burden. These results suggest that further reductions in TB incidence require novel strategies to detect TB early and interrupt urban transmission.

Funding

Shanghai Municipal Science and Technology Major Project (ZD2021CY001), National Natural Science Foundation of China (82272376), National Research Council of Science and Technology Major Project of China (2017ZX10201302-006).

Measuring indirect transmission-reducing effects in tuberculosis vaccine efficacy trials: why and how?

Tuberculosis is the leading bacterial cause of death globally. In 2021, 10·6 million people developed symptomatic tuberculosis and 1·6 million died. Seven promising vaccine candidates that aim to prevent tuberculosis disease in adolescents and adults are currently in late-stage clinical trials. Conventional phase 3 trials provide information on the direct protection conferred against infection or disease in vaccinated individuals, but they tell us little about possible indirect (ie, transmission-reducing) effects that afford protection to unvaccinated individuals. As a result, proposed phase 3 trial designs will not provide key information about the overall effect of introducing a vaccine programme. Information on the potential for indirect effects can be crucial for policy makers deciding whether and how to introduce tuberculosis vaccines into immunisation programmes. We describe the rationale for measuring indirect effects, in addition to direct effects, of tuberculosis vaccine candidates in pivotal trials and lay out several options for incorporating their measurement into phase 3 trial designs.

Diagnostic yield of urine lipoarabinomannan and sputum tuberculosis tests in people living with HIV: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data

BACKGROUND

Sputum is the most widely used sample to diagnose active tuberculosis, but many people living with HIV are unable to produce sputum. Urine, in contrast, is readily available. We hypothesised that sample availability influences the diagnostic yield of various tuberculosis tests.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data, we compared the diagnostic yield of point-of-care urine-based lipoarabinomannan tests with that of sputum-based nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) and sputum smear microscopy (SSM). We used microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis based on positive culture or NAAT from any body site as the denominator and accounted for sample provision. We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, African Journals Online, and clinicaltrials.gov from database inception to Feb 24, 2022 for randomised controlled trials, cross-sectional studies, and cohort studies that assessed urine lipoarabinomannan point-of-care tests and sputum NAATs for active tuberculosis detection in participants irrespective of tuberculosis symptoms, HIV status, CD4 cell count, or study setting. We excluded studies in which recruitment was not consecutive, systematic, or random; provision of sputum or urine was an inclusion criterion; less than 30 participants were diagnosed with tuberculosis; early research assays without clearly defined cutoffs were tested; and humans were not studied. We extracted study-level data, and authors of eligible studies were invited to contribute deidentified individual participant data. The main outcomes were the tuberculosis diagnostic yields of urine lipoarabinomannan tests, sputum NAATs, and SSM. Diagnostic yields were predicted using Bayesian random-effects and mixed-effects meta-analyses. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021230337.

FINDINGS

We identified 844 records, from which 20 datasets and 10 202 participants (4561 [45%] male participants and 5641 [55%] female participants) were included in the meta-analysis. All studies assessed sputum Xpert (MTB/RIF or Ultra, Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA, USA) and urine Alere Determine TB LAM (AlereLAM, Abbott, Chicago, IL, USA) in people living with HIV aged 15 years or older. Nearly all (9957 [98%] of 10 202) participants provided urine, and 82% (8360 of 10 202) provided sputum within 2 days. In studies that enrolled unselected inpatients irrespective of tuberculosis symptoms, only 54% (1084 of 1993) of participants provided sputum, whereas 99% (1966 of 1993) provided urine. Diagnostic yield was 41% (95% credible interval [CrI] 15-66) for AlereLAM, 61% (95% Crl 25-88) for Xpert, and 32% (95% Crl 10-55) for SSM. Heterogeneity existed across studies in the diagnostic yield, influenced by CD4 cell count, tuberculosis symptoms, and clinical setting. In predefined subgroup analyses, all tests had higher yields in symptomatic participants, and AlereLAM yield was higher in those with low CD4 counts and inpatients. AlereLAM and Xpert yields were similar among inpatients in studies enrolling unselected participants who were not assessed for tuberculosis symptoms (51% vs 47%). AlereLAM and Xpert together had a yield of 71% in unselected inpatients, supporting the implementation of combined testing strategies.

INTERPRETATION

AlereLAM, with its rapid turnaround time and simplicity, should be prioritised to inform tuberculosis therapy among inpatients who are HIV-positive, regardless of symptoms or CD4 cell count. The yield of sputum-based tuberculosis tests is undermined by people living with HIV who cannot produce sputum, whereas nearly all participants are able to provide urine. The strengths of this meta-analysis are its large size, the carefully harmonised denominator, and the use of Bayesian random-effects and mixed-effects models to predict yields; however, data were geographically restricted, clinically diagnosed tuberculosis was not considered in the denominator, and little information exists on strategies for obtaining sputum samples.

FUNDING

FIND, the Global Alliance for Diagnostics.