Fertility changes in Latin America in periods of economic uncertainty

Influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on births and induced abortions in Southern Sweden: a register-based study

BACKGROUND

Pandemics are linked with declining birth rates, but little is known about how the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced childbearing decisions. We aimed to investigate the associations between the COVID-19 pandemic and reproductive decisions, specifically to identify potential changes in the frequency of deliveries and induced abortions in Skåne, Sweden.

METHODS

Using the Skåne Healthcare Register, we identified women aged 15-45 years who had at least one pregnancy-related care visit registered between 1 January 2013 and 11 November 11 2021. Deliveries and induced abortions were identified, and changes in weekly delivery and abortion counts were assessed using an interrupted time series design. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from a Poisson regression model.

RESULTS

During the study period we identified 129 131 deliveries and 38 591 abortions. Compared with the counterfactual (exposed interval assuming COVID-19 had not occurred), pandemic exposure was associated with fewer deliveries (RR 0.93; 95% CI 0.89 to 0.98). For abortions, pandemic exposure appeared to be associated with fewer abortions (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.90 to 1.00); however, age-related differences were found. Among women aged 25 years and over, pandemic exposure was more strongly associated with fewer abortions. Contrastingly, among women aged under 25 years, abortions appeared to increase.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic seemed to have contributed to a decline in births in Southern Sweden. During the same period, abortions declined in women in the older age range, but contrastingly increased among younger women.

Economic Cycles and Entry into Parenthood: Is the Association Changing and Does it Affect Macro-Level Trends? Micro-Level Hazard and Simulation Models of Belgian Fertility Trends, 1960-2010

The association between economic cycles-typically measured in terms of GDP growth or swings in unemployment-and macro-level fertility trends has received ample attention in the literature. Compared to studies that consider macro-level fertility, individual-based models can address the association between economic cycles and specific stages of family formation (e.g. entry into parenthood) more precisely while allowing for structural factors that contribute to fertility postponement. Using population-wide longitudinal microdata from the Belgian censuses we combine discrete-time hazard models of entry into parenthood for the period 1960 to 2010 with microsimulation models to assess whether economic cycles in tandem with educational expansion can account for year-to-year variation in the proportion of women entering parenthood and variation in the pace of fertility postponement at the macro-level. Results indicate that educational expansion has been a structural driver of fertility postponement, whereas the procyclical effect of economic cycles accounts for accelerations and decelerations of fertility postponement throughout the period considered. Microsimulation of macro-level fertility trends indicates that individual-based models predict the annual proportion of women entering parenthood and the mean age at first birth with average errors of prediction below 1 per cent and 3 months, respectively, while also showing strong correlations between first differences of observed and simulated time-series. Because the extended observation window encompasses several severe recessions, we test whether the association between economic cycles and entry into parenthood has changed over time and how this affected macro-level trends, discussing several mechanisms that may account for such temporal variation.

Variability in Reproductive Choices: A Comprehensive Analysis of Women's Working Status and Fertility Behavior in Pakistan

The relationship between women's working status and fertility behavior has been a topic of interest for researchers and policymakers. The societal shifts over time, particularly the increasing participation of women in the workforce, have transformed traditional roles. Women, once primarily perceived as caregivers, are now assuming roles of economic independence. This transformation prompts a re-evaluation of the traditional association between women's working status and fertility behavior. This study aims to investigate the impact of women's working status on fertility behavior using a multistage stratified sampling design. A total of 408 women aged 15 to 49 years were recruited from 2 strata: working and non-working women. The data were collected through face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire. Descriptive statistics, cluster analysis, and generalized additive models were used for in-depth analysis of the dataset. An examination of fertility patterns indicates that, on average, working women bear 2.90 live children, while their non-working counterparts have an average of 3.52 children. Stillbirth was reported in 13% of housewives and 15.1% of working women. However, further analysis revealed that the relationship between women's employment status and fertility behavior varied depending on Social and Cultural Norms, Reproductive Rights, Workplace Policies, Economic Independence, Age, and Life Stage. Our findings suggest that promoting access to family-friendly policies and services, as well as challenging gender norms and cultural values, could help address the impact of women's employment on fertility behavior.

Economy and elderly population, complementary or contradictory: A cross-continental wavelet coherence and cross-country Granger causality study

The aim of this study is to explore the causal relationship between the economy and the elderly population globally as well as continent-wise. This research was designed as a continent-wide study to investigate the differences between several regions simultaneously. The economy was measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth rate while the population aged above 65 as a percentage of the total was considered the elderly population. A panel dataset published by the World Bank for a period of six decades from 1961 to 2020 covering 84 countries was used as data for the analysis. Wavelet coherence was the methodology used for the study since it was considered suitable to present causality as well as the causal direction between the two variables for different sections during the six decades. Thereafter, Granger causality was applied for a cross-country analysis to gain further insights on the causality of individual countries over the years. Findings of the study reveal that the causality and its direction have been changing over time for most continents. Negative correlations with the leading variable interchanging with time are evident for the majority of the regions. Nevertheless, results indicate that in a global perspective, elderly population predominantly leads the economic growth with a positive correlation. Research approach allows ascertaining the short-term and medium-term changes that occurred concerning the direction of the relationship throughout the stipulated period of the study, which could not be drawn by any previous study. Even though region-wise literature is available on this topic, global studies for decades have not been conducted yet.

Economic Uncertainty, Cultural and Ideational Transition, and Low Fertility

Increased objective uncertainties, upward movement in the hierarchy of needs, and associated cultural and ideational transition are inherent to modern societies. These factors were previously treated as independent macro-shocks and studied separately, without regard for their interactions. In this paper, we provide an all-around framework to interpret fertility behavior and low fertility in developed economies, to compensate for the isolation of economic uncertainty from a cultural and ideational transition in previous empirical studies. In this regard, we conduct an empirical analysis of panel data of 34 OECD countries from 2000 to 2018, to discuss the impact of economic uncertainty on the fertility rate and the moderating effect of cultural and ideational transition on that impact. Below are our findings: (1) economic uncertainty significantly inhibits the fertility rate, and such an inhibiting effect is found to be underestimated after endogeneity is controlled; (2) according to heterogeneity analysis, the inhibiting effect of economic uncertainty on the fertility rate is stronger after the 2008 financial crisis and among low-income economies and countries where Confucianism is practiced; (3) a significant negative moderating effect of cultural and ideational transition on the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility rate is observed, indicating that the inhibiting effect of structural dimensions that combine objective and subjective factors regarding the fertility rate may be self-reinforcing; and, (4) further tests show that economic uncertainty and cultural and ideational transition affect the fertility rate by means of the effect of delayed parenthood, the substitution of cohabitation for marriage, and fertility preferences. We find that fertility behavior is cumulatively affected by both economic uncertainty and cultural and ideational transition. This implies that reducing economic uncertainty and fostering a culture that encourages marriage and fertility are fundamental for increasing the fertility rate in China, a country resorting to the third-child policy to promote a fertility rebound.

Influence of Obesity and Unemployment on Fertility Rates: A Multinational Analysis of 30 Countries from 1976 to 2014

Background: The rationale of a postulated decrease in fertility rate development is still being debated. Among the multiple influencing factors, socioeconomic variables and their complex influence are of particular interest. Methods: Data on socioeconomic and health variables from 1976−2014 of 30 countries within the OECD region were analysed for their respective influence on fertility rates by using mixed-effect regression models. Results: A significant negative influence of the increase in unemployment rate on the following year’s changes in fertility rate in Western (−0.00256; p < 0.001) as well as Eastern European (−0.0034; p < 0.001) countries was revealed. The effect of being overweight was significant for Western European (−0.00256; p < 0.001) countries only. When analysing the whole OECD region, an increase in unemployment retained its significant negative influence on the fertility rate (−0.0028; p < 0.001), while being overweight did not. Interestingly, divergent influences of time were revealed and fertility rates increased with time in Eastern Europe while they decreased in Western Europe. Conclusion: Importantly, a significant negative influence of increase in unemployment on the fertility rate was revealed—irrespective of the region and time analysed. Furthermore, an adverse effect of being overweight on the fertility rate in Western European countries was revealed. Interestingly, time was associated with a decreasing fertility rate in Western but not in Eastern Europe.

Fertility awareness, attitudes towards parenting, and knowledge about Assisted Reproductive Technology among university students in Argentina

Objective:

The aim of this study was to assess the fertility awareness, attitudes towards parenting, and knowledge about Assisted Reproductive Technology of Argentinian university students.

Methods:

This naturalistic, cross-sectional and quantitative study included the translation into Spanish of the Swedish Fertility Awareness Questionnaire; adjustments were also made to fit the questionnaire to local cultural norm. Through a snowball design using social media, university students were contacted in June 2019 and asked to complete an anonymous online self-report survey.

Results:

A total of 680 students (83.2% females and 16.4% males) aged 24.7 years on average (SD=5.6) answered the questionnaire. Approximately 70% believed they had high levels of knowledge about human reproduction; nevertheless, 46% thought that women could get pregnant in any stage of the cycle; 36.2% believed that fertility in women decreased between the ages of 45 and 50, 33.2% between the ages of 40 and 45, and 25.9% between the ages of 35 and 40 years. Half of the studied population thought that the chances of getting pregnant during the ovulation period ranged between 80-100%. In regard to age-related fertility decline in men, 57% believed that it simply did not happen. As to their desire to become parents, 58.3% stated that they planned to have children, and 50% said it was very important. The risk factors tied to infertility listed by the students were as follows: drug use (79.2%); aging (78.2%); smoking (69.2%); alcohol (66.5%); and sexually transmitted infections (43%).

Conclusions:

Argentinian university students wrongly see themselves as knowledgeable about fertility. Interventions are required to improve awareness over fertility among university students in Argentina.

Analysis of Latin American Fertility in Terms of Probable Social Classes

Theories of demographic change have not paid enough attention to how factors associated with fertility decline play different roles across social classes that are defined multidimensionally. I use a multidimensional definition of social class along with information on the reproductive histories of women born between 1920 and 1965 in six Latin American countries to show the following: the enduring connection between social stratification and fertility differentials, the concomitance of diverse fertility decline trajectories by class, and the role of within- and between-class social distances in promoting/preventing ideational change towards the acceptance of lower fertility. These results enable me to revisit the scope of theories of fertility change and to provide an explanatory narrative centred on empirically constructed social classes (probable social classes) and the macro- and micro-level conditions that influenced their life courses. I use 21 census samples collected between 1970 and 2005 in Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Paraguay.

The impact of job uncertainty on first-birth postponement

This paper aims to advance our understanding of entry into employment with uncertain conditions in Italy and its causal impact on the onset of the fertility process. We adopt the potential outcome approach to causal inference so as to quantify the net effect of having a first job with a temporary or a permanent contract on the propensity to have a first child within the first five years of employment. The analysis is based on retrospective data from the nationally representative 2009 Family and Social Subjects survey. Our results suggest that 7% of potential first-birth postponement among women and 5% of potential postponement among men is attributable to jobs with uncertain conditions. These individuals would have had a first child if they had had a permanent job. For women, potential postponement is elevated among those with higher education (reaching 16%), while for men potential postponement is especially visible among those with low and medium education. With this paper we quantify a non-negligible negative effect for early exposure to labour market uncertainties on potential first-birth postponement in Italy.

The impacts of COVID-19 measures on global environment and fertility rate: double coincidence

The study aims to examine the effects of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) measures on global environment and fertility rate by using the data of 1980 to 2019. The results show that communicable diseases including COVID-19 measures decrease carbon emissions and increase the chances of fertility rates in an account of city-wide lockdown. The knowledge spillover substantially decreases carbon emissions, while high energy demand increases carbon emissions. Poverty incidence increases fertility rate in the short-run; however, in the long-run, the result only supported with vulnerable employment and food prices that lead to increase fertility rates worldwide. The study concludes that besides some high negative externalities associated with COVID-19 pandemic in the form of increasing death tolls and rising healthcare costs, the global world should have to know how to direct high mass carbon emissions and population growth through acceptance of preventive measures, which would be helpful to contain coronavirus pandemic at a global scale.

Migration, Family Formation and Fertility in the Americas

In many low- and medium-income countries that are the traditional sources of international migrants, total fertility rates have dropped to levels at or near replacement. In this context of low fertility, we expect migration’s effects on fertility to operate primarily through marital timing and marital stability. We examine the effects of international migration on age at first marriage, union dissolution, timing of first birth, and completed fertility, using retrospective life-history data collected in Mexico and eight other Latin American countries by the Mexican Migration Project (MMP) and the Latin American Migration Project (LAMP). Using discrete-time hazards and Poisson regression models, we find clear evidence that early migration experience results in delayed marriage, delayed first birth, and a higher rate of marital dissolution. We also find evidence among women that cumulative international migration experience is associated with fewer births and that the estimated effects of migration experience are attenuated after taking into account age at union formation and husbands’ prior union experiences. As fertility levels in migrant origin and destination countries continue on their path toward convergence, migrant fertility below native fertility may become more common due to migration’s disruptive effects on marital timing and marital stability and the selection of divorced or separated adults into migration.

Women Founders in the Technology Industry: The Startup-Relatedness of the Decision to Become a Mother

This paper explores the decision to become a mother among women in the technology industry, particularly if there is an “optimal context” regarding startup development (business stage and size). Eighteen interviews were conducted with an international sample of women founders and analyzed using a grounded theory approach. Findings suggest two sources of “mumpreneurs” in technology ventures: (1) women who created a startup while young and childless, postponing maternity until the business is “stable”; and (2) mothers who created a technology venture as a strategy to gain higher levels of flexibility and autonomy than they experienced in the corporate world. The first group is highly work-role salient, while the second is highly family-role salient. The results of this work contribute to theory development by revealing the “startup-relatedness” of family decisions by women founders in the technology industry. I offer recommendations of how accelerators can improve mentorship for women in high-growth technology ventures and unleash women’s potential.

A review of surrogate motherhood regulation in south American countries: pointing to a need for an international legal framework

Background

Advances in science and technology coupled with globalization are changing access to and utilization of reproductive health services. This includes the transnational phenomenon of families who use surrogate mothers to reproduce, with forms of altruistic and commercial surrogacy becoming more commonplace. Simultaneously, changes in law, regulation, and policy are necessary to protect surrogates, intended parents, and resulting children. These developments have been slow to adapt to challenges inherent to surrogacy arrangements, most specifically in low-and middle-income countries, including in South American countries.

Methods

We conducted an interdisciplinary non-systematic literature review and legal analysis of existing and pending policy, laws, and regulations related to commercial surrogacy arrangements in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela. The review focused on articles that discussed topics of domestic and international law, policy, regulation, and governance related to commercial surrogacy. We queried PubMed, JSTOR, and Google Scholar for Spanish and English-language articles limited to those published between 2000 and 2016.

Results

Our literature and legal review found a wide variance in how different countries address the issue, including two (Brazil and Uruguay) that have issued guidance attempting to clarify the legality of commercial surrogacy, others who have introduced surrogacy-specific legislation, and a final group with no specific legal mechanisms in place. Our extracted legal case studies also indicate that courts have a hard time interpreting existing law and its applicability to surrogacy. The influence of Catholicism also played a role in the adoption of surrogacy and other advanced reproductive technology (ART)-related legislation.

Conclusions

Changes in global infertility rates, the emergence of new family structures, and advancement of ART are factors that will influence future development of legal frameworks addressing surrogacy in South America. Despite a growing transnational market for commercial surrogacy in many of the countries examined, the current patchwork of policy does little to clarify what forms of surrogacy are legally permissible, nor do they adequately protect surrogates, intended parents, or the children themselves. This points to an urgent need for regional legal and policy harmonization specifically designed to align with public health and human rights principles.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12884-019-2182-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The changing relationship between unemployment and total fertility

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there has been a fundamental change in the relationship between economic conditions and fertility. We use panel data methods to study the short-term changes in total fertility and the unemployment rate in a range of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1957 to 2014. We find that although fertility was counter-cyclical before 1970, with good economic times being associated with lower fertility, since then it has become pro-cyclical, with good economic times being associated with higher fertility.

Factors Affecting Fertility Rate in Iran (Panel Data 1966-2013): A Survey Study

Objective: Population and its corresponding problems are among multidimensional and complicated issues of human communities and their related features are the basis for making any plan or policy. Fertility, as one of the principle components of population growth, is an issue that has always been taken into consideration and extensive research has been carried out to recognize factors affecting on it. Therefore, the authors decided to study the most important factors influencing fertility rate in Iran by conducting a longitudinal study and considering the effect of various time periods on its population changes. Materials and methods: This is a descriptive-analytic study. Its required information is a combination of cross-sectional and time series data (panel data) that were extracted from 1966 to 2013 from Iran's population categorized by the country's 24 provinces and from statistical yearbooks of Statistical Center of Iran and Organization of Civil Registration. The final estimations were made using Eviews 7 and STATA 12 software. Findings showed that variables of marriage, women's level of education, unemployment, population policies, Sunni population, economic policies and annual expenses of households have influenced the fertility rate. Results: Based on the research results, marriage and women's level of education respectively had the most positive and the most negative effects on the fertility rate. Then, unemployment, family planning policies, policies of paying cash subsidies and total annual household expenses had reverse effects on the fertility rate and the policies of paying cash subsidies and Sunni population had positive effects on the fertility rate. Conclusion: In order to make policies of increasing fertility rate effective by governmental and politicians' planning, more attention should be paid to providing conditions for marriage and reducing unemployment.

Análisis de los determinantes próximos e impacto de la ocupación en la fertilidad de mujeres peruanas

Objetivo.Estimar la capacidad predictiva de los determinantes próximos y el trabajo en la disminución de la fertilidad en mujeres peruanas en edad fértil.

Métodos.Análisis secundario de la Encuesta Demográfica y de Salud Familiar (ENDES) de 2014 de Perú. La muestra fue de 20 396 mujeres entre 15 y 49 años de edad con actividad sexual en las cuatro semanas previas a la entrevista realizada. La variable dependiente fue el número total de hijos nacidos vivos y las variables independientes principales incluidas, trabajo, número ideal de hijos, máximo nivel educativo alcanzado y quintiles de riqueza. Se calcularonodds ratios(OR) para estimar la fuerza de las asociaciones entre los determinantes próximos y la ocupación y la fertilidad mediante modelos de regresión logística. Se estimó la bondad de ajuste de los modelos con la prueba de Hosmer-Lemeshow y su capacidad discriminante, con curvas ROC.

Resultados.La fertilidad deseada (2,5 hijos por mujer) fue más alta que la real(2,1). Los principales factores asociados con la reducción de la fertilidad fueron el nivel educativo superior (OR = 0,03; IC95%: 0,02–0,04), el número ideal de hijos entre 0 y 2 (OR = 0,13; IC95%: 0,11–0,15), y el trabajo dependiente (OR = 0,31; IC95%: 0,28–0,34). El área bajo la curva de los modelos fue 0,908 (IC95%: 0,898–0,917) y 0,91 (IC95%:0,891–0,928), respectivamente.

Conclusión.La acción de los determinantes directos (edad de inicio de las relaciones sexuales y del matrimonio) retrasa el comienzo de la maternidad, mientras que los determinantes indirectos (mayor nivel educativo y pertenencia al quintil superior de riqueza) suponen una mayor autonomía económica, que, a su vez, se asocia con niveles bajos de fertilidad. Asimismo, cuanto mayor es la dependencia en el trabajo, menor es la fertilidad de las mujeres encuestadas.

The Latin American cohabitation boom, 1970–2007

The article describes the rise of unmarried cohabitation in Latin American countries during the last 30 years of the twentieth century, both at the national and regional levels. It documents that this major increase occurred in regions with and without traditional forms of cohabitation alike. In addition, the striking degree of catching up of cohabitation among the better-educated population segments is illustrated. The connections between these trends and economic (periods of high inflation) and cultural (reduction of stigmas in ethical domains) factors are discussed. The conclusion is that the periods of inflation and hyperinflation may have been general catalysts, but no clear indications of correlation were found between such economic factors and the rise in cohabitation. The shift toward more tolerance for hitherto stigmatized forms of conduct (e.g., homosexuality, euthanasia, abortion, singleparent household) is in line with the rise of cohabitation in regions of Argentina, Chile, and Brazil where cohabitation used to be uncommon. Further rises in cohabitation during the first decade of the twenty-first century are expected in a number of countries (e.g., mexico) despite conditions of much lower inflation.