Demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa: How big will the economic dividend be?

Migration and interbirth transition rate using Benin Demographic and Health Survey data: Does episode-splitting matter?

BACKGROUND

The relationship between migration and fertility has vexed demographers for years. One issue missing in the literature is the lack of careful temporal consideration of when women migrate and specifically, the extent to which they do either before or after live births.

OBJECTIVE

Here, we opt for a more appropriate methodological approach to help remedy the complexity of the temporal aspect of migration and childbirth processes: regression models using the episode-splitting method.

METHODS

This paper applies a rarely used methodological approach (episode-splitting) in the literature of migration-fertility relationship to investigate how internal in-migration is associated with inter-birth intervals among women in Cotonou, the largest city of Benin. Data comes from the 2017-2018 Benin Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) of women aged 15-49. Estimates from exponential regression models with episode-splitting were compared to estimates from exponential regression models without episode-splitting approach. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted to determine the robustness of the comparison between the two methods. Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) were used to identify the method that provides models with best fit.

RESULTS

The results from (standard) exponential regression models without episode-splitting show that there is no significant association between migration and interbirth transition rate. However, significant associations between migration and interbirth transition rate emerge after applying the episode splitting method. The hazard ratios (HR) of the transition to the next live birth are higher among migrant women than among nonmigrant women. This trend is persistent even after 10 years spent in Cotonou by migrant women.

CONCLUSION

Exponential regression models with episode-splitting were of better fit than exponential regression models without episode-splitting. Sensitivity analysis conducted seems to confirm that models with episode-splitting produce estimates that are accurate, reliable and superior to models without episode-splitting. The results suggest a long-run process adaptation of migrants to lower fertility behaviours in Cotonou and are therefore consistent with the socialization hypothesis.

Fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa: Does remarriage matter?

The interplay between remarriage and fertility is among the most poorly documented subjects in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), despite remarriage being one of the fundamental aspects of marriage dynamics in this region. We use Demographic and Health Survey data from 34 countries in SSA to document the association between remarriage and fertility during the reproductive years and over the fertility transition. The findings show that in 29 countries, remarried women end up having fewer children than women in intact unions, despite attaining similar or higher levels of fertility at early reproductive ages. However, remarriage is found to have a positive effect on fertility in Sierra Leone. The effects of remarriage on fertility diminish as fertility declines, with smaller effects generally observed in countries that are relatively advanced in their fertility transition and larger effects found elsewhere. These findings shed light on the role that remarriage might play in country-level fertility declines.

Generating and capitalizing on the demographic dividend potential in sub-Saharan Africa: a conceptual framework from a systematic literature review

Background: Africa will double its population by 2050 and more than half will be below age 25. The continent has a unique opportunity to boost its socioeconomic welfare. This systematic literature review aims to develop a conceptual framework that identifies policies and programs that have provided a favorable environment for generating and harnessing a demographic dividend. This framework can facilitate sub-Saharan African countries' understanding of needed actions to accelerate their demographic transition and capitalize on their demographic dividend potential. Methods: The search strategy was structured around three concepts: economic development, fertility, and sub-Saharan Africa. Databases used included PubMed and EconLit. An inductive approach was employed to expand the reference base further. Data were extracted using literature records following a checklist of items to include when reporting a systematic review suggested in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) Statement. Results: The final review consisted of 78 peer-reviewed articles, ten reports from the gray literature, and one book. Data were categorized according to relevant demographic dividend typology: pre-dividend and early-dividend. The results from the literature review were synthesized into a framework consisting of five sectors for pre-dividend countries, namely 1) Governance and Economic Institutions, 2) Family Planning, 3) Maternal and Child Health, 4) Education, and 5) Women's Empowerment. An additional sector, 6) Labor Market, is added for early-dividend countries. These sectors must work together to attain a demographic dividend. Conclusions: A country's demographic transition stage must guide policy and programs. Most sub-Saharan African countries have prioritized job creation and employment for youth, yet their efforts to secure a productive labor market require preliminary and complementary investments in governance, family planning, maternal and child health, education, and women's empowerment. Creating a favorable policy environment for generating and capitalizing on a demographic dividend can support their stated goals for development.

Dry and wet miombo woodlands of south-central Africa respond differently to climate change

It is important to understand how species distributions will shift under climate change. While much focus has been on species tracking temperature changes in the northern hemisphere, changing precipitation patterns in tropical regions have received less attention. The aim of the study was to estimate the current distribution of wet and dry miombo woodlands of sub-Saharan Africa and to predict their distributions under different climate change scenarios. A maximum entropy method (Maxent) was used to estimate the distributions and for projections. Occurrence records of dominant tree species in each woodland were used for modeling, together with altitude, soil characteristics, and climate variables as the environmental variables. Modeling was done under all four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and three general circulation models. Three dominant tree species were used in models of dry miombo while seven were used for wet miombo. Models estimated dry miombo to cover almost the entire known distribution of miombo woodlands while wet miombo were estimated to predominate in parts of Angola, southern Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Future climate scenarios predict a drier climate in sub-Saharan Africa, and as a result, the range of dry miombo will expand. Dry miombo were predicted to expand by up to 17.3% in 2050 and 22.7% in 2070. In contrast, wet miombo were predicted to contract by up to - 28.6% in 2050 and - 41.6% in 2070. A warming climate is conducive for the proliferation of dry miombo tree species but unfavorable for wet miombo tree species.

The Sustainable Development Goals: Contextualizing Africa's Economic and Health Landscape

The sustainable development goals (SDGs) encompass 17 goals with targets and indicators, collectively striving to improve national, regional, continental, and global development. SDG 8 strives for improved and sustainable economic growth. Africa's population is estimated to increase markedly and rapidly over the next few decades. The African demographic dividend presents opportunities to be harnessed, but several socioeconomic challenges exist that may constrain progress for achieving the SDGs. Poverty and inequality are pervasive in Africa and constrain economic and health gains. SDG 3 aims for good health and well-being for all ages and has 13 targets linked to 26 indicators. Collectively, SDG 3 targets aim to improve health outcomes by reducing mortality, ending epidemics, and preventing diseases to ensure affordable and quality healthcare access for all. The dynamic African health landscape and scarcity of healthcare human capital also present challenges for advancing SDG 3. The implementation of the SDGs presents major and complex challenges but ultimately yields rewards. Advancement across all SDG 3 targets is necessary for the benefit of healthier global citizens.

Living Alone among Older Persons in Uganda: Prevalence and Associated Factors

This study aimed at investigating the prevalence and factors associated with living alone among older persons in Uganda. A secondary analysis of the 2010 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) data was conducted. A complementary log-log regression model was used to estimate the association between living alone and demographic, socio-economic and health factors. Nearly one out of ten (9%) older persons lived alone in Uganda. Living alone was associated with being divorced / separated (OR 18.5, 95% CI: 10.3–33.3), being widowed (OR 8.8, 95% CI: 5.1–15.2), advanced age (OR 2.1, 95% CI: 1.4–3.2), residence in western region (OR 0.6, 95% CI: 0.3–0.93), poor wealth status (OR 0.3, 95% CI: 0.2–06), receiving remittances (OR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1–2.3) and being disabled (OR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.2–2.1). Living alone among older persons did not vary by gender.

Sub-national mapping of population pyramids and dependency ratios in Africa and Asia

The age group composition of populations varies substantially across continents and within countries, and is linked to levels of development, health status and poverty. The subnational variability in the shape of the population pyramid as well as the respective dependency ratio are reflective of the different levels of development of a country and are drivers for a country's economic prospects and health burdens. Whether measured as the ratio between those of working age and those young and old who are dependent upon them, or through separate young and old-age metrics, dependency ratios are often highly heterogeneous between and within countries. Assessments of subnational dependency ratio and age structure patterns have been undertaken for specific countries and across high income regions, but to a lesser extent across the low income regions. In the framework of the WorldPop Project, through the assembly of over 100 million records across 6,389 subnational administrative units, subnational dependency ratio and high resolution gridded age/sex group datasets were produced for 87 countries in Africa and Asia.

Youth migration, livelihood prospects and demographic dividend: A comparison of the Census 2011 and Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System in the rural northeast of South Africa

The 2011 South African national census shows a cohort of young adults comprising an increasing share of the population. This finding is borne out in longitudinal data from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). This primarily descriptive paper uses the Agincourt HDSS to examine the migration, employment and unemployment patterns in young adults. The study reveals high levels of temporary labour migration linking rural areas to metropolitan areas and secondary urban places. The type of work conducted by young adults in the Agincourt population is predominantly unskilled labour for both sexes. However, there is some evidence of female employment increasing in more educated sectors. Across all working ages there is pronounced unemployment, but the main pressure is felt by the younger adult population. Education and skills development for both sexes should be strengthened to support the country's efforts to vastly improve labour force participation amongst the youth.

Applying a Family-Level Economic Strengthening Intervention to Improve Education and Health-Related Outcomes of School-Going AIDS-Orphaned Children: Lessons from a Randomized Experiment in Southern Uganda

Children comprise the largest proportion of the population in sub-Saharan Africa. Of these, millions are orphaned. Orphanhood increases the likelihood of growing up in poverty, dropping out of school, and becoming infected with HIV. Therefore, programs aimed at securing a healthy developmental trajectory for these orphaned children are desperately needed. We conducted a two-arm cluster-randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a family-level economic strengthening intervention with regard to school attendance, school grades, and self-esteem in AIDS-orphaned adolescents aged 12-16 years from 10 public rural primary schools in southern Uganda. Children were randomly assigned to receive usual care (counseling, school uniforms, school lunch, notebooks, and textbooks), "bolstered" with mentorship from a near-peer (control condition, n = 167), or to receive bolstered usual care plus a family-level economic strengthening intervention in the form of a matched Child Savings Account (Suubi-Maka treatment arm, n = 179). The two groups did not differ at baseline, but 24 months later, children in the Suubi-Maka treatment arm reported significantly better educational outcomes, lower levels of hopelessness, and higher levels of self-concept compared to participants in the control condition. Our study contributes to the ongoing debate on how to address the developmental impacts of the increasing numbers of orphaned and vulnerable children and adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa, especially those affected by HIV/AIDS. Our findings indicate that innovative family-level economic strengthening programs, over and above bolstered usual care that includes psychosocial interventions for young people, may have positive developmental impacts related to education, health, and psychosocial functioning.

Optimizing the 'demographic dividend' in young developing countries: The role of contractual savings and insurance for financing education

Many developing regions are facing a youth bulge, meaning that young people comprise the highest proportion of the population. These regions are at risk of losing what could be a tremendous opportunity for economic growth and development if they do not capitalize on this young and economically productive population - also referred to as the "demographic dividend," defined as the increase in economic growth that tends to follow increases in the ratio of the working-age population - essentially the labor force - to dependents. Nations undergoing this population transition have the opportunity to capitalize on the demographic dividend if the right social, economic, and human capital policies are in place. In particular, sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and North Africa are at risk of losing the demographic dividend. These regions face high youth unemployment, low primary school completion, and low secondary school enrollment. This results in an undereducated and unskilled segment of the population. The prohibitive costs of education prevent young people from finishing school, thereby entering the labor market unprepared. This article presents a case for youth-focused financial inclusion programs as one of the antidotes to the masses of poor, undereducated, and low-skilled young people swelling the labor markets of poor developing countries.

African Demography

Like many other countries worldwide, Africa faces a rapidly increasing elderly population; however, most African countries also still have very high levels of fertility, high rates of population growth, and very young populations. This means African countries will have to address the doubling or even the tripling, by 2050, of their working-age population and better prepare for the future of their upcoming young generations, while aiming for a “modern” demographic regime of low mortality and low fertility. Such a regime would put African countries in a position to capture a demographic dividend, realize inclusive growth, reduce poverty levels, and achieve economic convergence. Socioeconomic advances help foster demographic transformations, and improvements in demographic indicators also help trigger socioeconomic advances, but this process is not automatic. Authorities will need to intervene swiftly on mortality, and particularly on fertility, through adequate population and health policies and programs.

Does the Orphan Disadvantage "Spill Over?" An analysis of whether living in an area with a higher concentration of orphans is associated with children's school enrollment in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Despite considerable concern regarding the social consequences of sub-Saharan Africa's high orphan prevalence, no research investigates how living in a community densely populated with orphans is more broadly associated with children's-including nonorphans'-acquisition of human capital.

OBJECTIVE

We provide a new look at the implications of widespread orphanhood in sub-Saharan Africa by examining whether living in an area with a high concentration of orphans is associated with children's likelihood of school enrollment.

METHODS

We use data from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) and the Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey (MICS) to estimate multilevel logistic regression models to assess whether living in a setting with a higher concentration of orphans is associated with school enrollment among 383,010 children in 336 provinces in 34 sub-Saharan African countries.

RESULTS

Orphan concentration has a curvilinear association with children's school enrollment in western and eastern Africa: the initially positive association becomes negative at higher levels. In central and southern Africa, orphan concentration has a positive linear association with children's school enrollment.

CONCLUSION

In western and eastern Africa, the negative association between living in a setting more densely populated with orphans and children's school enrollment provides suggestive evidence that the orphan disadvantage "spills over" in the communities most heavily affected. Conversely, in central and southern Africa, the positive association between living in a setting more densely populated with orphans and children's school enrollment highlights the resiliency of these relatively wealthier communities with high levels of orphans. Although longitudinal research is needed to confirm these findings and clarify the underlying mechanisms, this study lays the groundwork for a new body of research aimed at understanding the broader social implications of widespread orphanhood in sub-Saharan Africa.

Partaking in the global movement for occupational mental health: what challenges and ways forward for sub-Sahara Africa?

There is an ongoing global movement for the entrenchment of occupational mental health as an integral part of occupational health and safety schemes. Aside from being a fundamental human right issue, this move has been demonstrated to be of cost-benefit in terms of workplace productivity and general economic growth. Despite being among the regions most prone to the human and economic repercussions of work-related mental health problems by reason of her socio-economic circumstance; sub-Sahara Africa is yet to fully plug into this movement. With a view to make recommendations on the ways forward for sub-Sahara Africa, this paper examines the current state of and the barriers to effective occupational mental health policy and practice in the region.