Seasonality of primarily childhood and young adult infectious diseases in the United States

The impact of temperature, humidity and closing school on the mumps epidemic: a case study in the mainland of China

BACKGROUND

To control resurging infectious diseases like mumps, it is necessary to resort to effective control and preventive measures. These measures include increasing vaccine coverage, providing the community with advice on how to reduce exposure, and closing schools. To justify such intervention, it is important to understand how well each of these measures helps to limit transmission.

METHODS

In this paper, we propose a simple SEILR (susceptible-exposed-symptomatically infectious-asymptomatically infectious-recovered) model by using a novel transmission rate function to incorporate temperature, humidity, and closing school factors. This new transmission rate function allows us to verify the impact of each factor either separately or combined. Using reported mumps cases from 2004 to 2018 in the mainland of China, we perform data fitting and parameter estimation to evaluate the basic reproduction number  R 0 . As a wide range of one-dose measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine programs in China started only in 2008, we use different vaccination proportions for the first Stage I period (from 2004 to 2008) and the second Stage II period (from 2009 to 2018). This allows us to verify the importance of higher vaccine coverage with a possible second dose of MMR vaccine.

RESULTS

We find that the basic reproduction number  R 0  is generally between 1 and 3. We then use the Akaike Information Criteria to assess the extent to which each of the three factors contributed to the spread of mumps. The findings suggest that the impact of all three factors is substantial, with temperature having the most significant impact, followed by school opening and closing, and finally humidity.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that the strategy of increasing vaccine coverage, changing micro-climate (temperature and humidity), and closing schools can greatly reduce mumps transmission.

Seasonality of Deaths Due to Heart Diseases among Cancer Patients

Background and Objectives: Cancer patients are at increased short- and long-term risk of cardiac toxicity and mortality. It is well-known that cardiac morbidity and mortality follows a seasonal pattern. Here we address the question of whether heart disease-related fatalities among cancer patients also follow a seasonal pattern. Materials and Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of seasonality of deaths due to heart diseases (n = 503,243) in patients with newly diagnosed cancer reported during the period from 1975 to 2016 in the US's largest cancer registry-the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Seasonality was assessed through a classical cosinor model assuming a single annual peak. Results: We identified a significant seasonal peak in the first half of November. A peak with identical features was for all subgroups of patients defined based on demographic characteristics. This was also the case when analysis was performed on subgroups defined by the type of malignancy. Only patients with acute leukemias, pancreatic cancer and nervous system malignancies did not have a seasonal pattern in heart disease-related fatalities. Conclusion: the rate of heart disease-related fatalities after cancer diagnosis follows a seasonal pattern similar to that observed for the general population, albeit with an earlier peak in November. This suggests that close monitoring of the cardiovascular system in cancer survivors must be particularly active from late autumn and during the entire winter period.

The incidence of mumps in Taiwan and its association with the meteorological parameters: An observational study

Mumps is an acute and common childhood disease caused by paramyxovirus. It has been reported that the occurrence of mumps is influenced by seasonality. However, the role of meteorological variables in the incidence of mumps remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps infection. Poisson regression analysis was used to study the relationship between weather variability and the incidence of mumps in Taiwan. Between 2012 and 2018, 5459 cases of mumps cases were reported to the Centers for Disease Control, Taiwan (Taiwan CDC). The occurrence of mumps virus infections revealed significant seasonality in the spring and summer seasons in Taiwan. The incidence of mumps virus infections began to increase at temperatures of 15°C and started to decline if the temperature was higher than 29°C (r2 = 0.387, P = .008). Similarly, the number of mumps cases began to increase at a relative humidity of 65% to 69% (r2 = 0.838, P < .029). The number of mumps cases was positively associated with temperature and relative humidity during the period preceding the infection. This study showed that the occurrence of mumps is significantly associated with increasing temperature and relative humidity in Taiwan. Therefore, these factors could be regarded as early warning signals and indicate the need to strengthen the intervention and prevention of mumps.

Seasonal and daytime variation in multiple immune parameters in humans: Evidence from 329,261 participants of the UK Biobank cohort

Seasonal disease outbreaks are perennial features of human infectious disease but the factors generating these patterns are unclear. Here we investigate seasonal and daytime variability in multiple immune parameters in 329,261 participants in UK Biobank and test for associations with a wide range of environmental and lifestyle factors, including changes in day length, outdoor temperature and vitamin D at the time the blood sample was collected. Seasonal patterns were evident in lymphocyte and neutrophil counts, and C-reactive protein CRP, but not monocytes, and these were independent of lifestyle, demographic, and environmental factors. All the immune parameters assessed demonstrated significant daytime variation that was independent of confounding factors. At a population level, human immune parameters vary across season and across time of day, independent of multiple confounding factors. Both season and time of day are fundamental dimensions of immune function that should be considered in all studies of immuno-prophylaxis and disease transmission.

Associations between Meteorological Factors and Reported Mumps Cases from 1999 to 2020 in Japan

The present study investigated associations between epidemiological mumps patterns and meteorological factors in Japan. We used mumps surveillance data and meteorological data from all 47 prefectures of Japan from 1999 to 2020. A time-series analysis incorporating spectral analysis and the least-squares method was adopted. In all power spectral densities for the 47 prefectures, spectral lines were observed at frequency positions corresponding to 1-year and 6-month cycles. Optimum least-squares fitting (LSF) curves calculated with the 1-year and 6-month cycles explained the underlying variation in the mumps data. The LSF curves reproduced bimodal and unimodal cycles that are clearly observed in northern and southern Japan, respectively. In investigating factors associated with the seasonality of mumps epidemics, we defined the contribution ratios of a 1-year cycle (Q₁) and 6-month cycle (Q₂) as the contributions of amplitudes of 1-year and 6-month cycles, respectively, to the entire amplitude of the time series data. Q₁ and Q₂ were significantly correlated with annual mean temperature. The vaccine coverage rate of a measles-mumps-rubella vaccine might not have affected the 1-year and 6-month modes of the time series data. The results of the study suggest an association between mean temperature and mumps epidemics in Japan.

Non-linear relationships and interactions of meteorological factors on mumps in Jinan, China

Although vaccination is available, mumps remains a public health concern in many countries including China. Previous studies have indicated the impact of meteorological factors and mumps, but findings vary across different regions with limited evidence to inform local public health responses. We aim to examine the impacts of meteorological variables on mumps in Jinan, a temperate city of China, and explore the interactions of temperature with humidity or wind speed. Weekly meteorological data and notified cases of mumps in Jinan were collected for 2014-2018. Regression analyses using the generalized additive model were performed with considerations of multicollinearity, lag effects, school holidays, long-term trend, and seasonality. A stratification model was applied to investigate the interaction. We found a non-linear relationship between weekly mean temperature and the number of cases. Between 1.2 and 24.5 °C, the excess risk (ER) of mumps for a 1 °C increase in weekly mean temperature was 3.08% (95% CI 1.32 to 4.87%) at 0-week lag. The lagged effects could last for 3 weeks. There were interactions between mean temperature and relative humidity or wind speed. The effect of mean temperature was enhanced in days with low relative humidity or high wind speed. This study suggests that temperature is positively associated with mumps cases with thresholds in the temperate city of China, and the effect can be modified by relative humidity and wind speed and is independent of vaccine coverage. Findings could be integrated into current early warning systems of mumps in order to protect people's health from the risk of changing climate.

Alarm Thresholds for Pertussis Outbreaks in Iran: National Data Analysis

Objectives

The purpose of the current study was to determine the upper threshold number of cases for which pertussis infection would reach an outbreak level nationally in Iran.

Methods

Data on suspected cases of pertussis from the 25^th February 2012 to the 23^rd March 2018 from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Iran was used. The national upper threshold level was estimated using the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method and the Poisson regression method.

Results

In total, 2,577 (33.6%) and 1,714 (22.3%) cases were reported in the Spring and Summer respectively. There were 1,417 (18.5%) and 1,971 (25.6%) cases reported in the Autumn and Winter, respectively. The overall upper threshold using the EWMA and the Poisson regression methods, was estimated as a daily occurrence of 8 (7.55) and 7.50 (4.48–11.06) suspected cases per 10,000,000 people, respectively. The daily seasonal thresholds estimated by the EWMA and the Poisson regression methods were 10, 7, 6, 8 cases and 10, 7, 7, 9 cases for the Spring, Summer, Autumn, and Winter, respectively.

Conclusion

The overall and seasonal estimated thresholds by the 2 methods were similar. Therefore, the estimated thresholds of 6–10 cases in a day, per 10,000,000 people could be used to detect pertussis outbreaks and epidemics by health policymakers.

Current Status of Mumps Virus Infection: Epidemiology, Pathogenesis, and Vaccine

Mumps is an important childhood infectious disease caused by mumps virus (MuV). We reviewed the epidemiology, pathogenesis, and vaccine development of mumps. Previous studies were identified using the key words “mumps” and “epidemiology”, “pathogenesis” or “vaccine” in MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. We excluded the articles that were not published in the English language, manuscripts without abstracts, and opinion articles from the review. The number of cases caused by MuV decreased steeply after the introduction of the mumps vaccine worldwide. In recent years, a global resurgence of mumps cases in developed countries and cases of aseptic meningitis caused by some mumps vaccine strains have renewed the importance of MuV infection worldwide. The performance of mumps vaccination has become an important issue for controlling mumps infections. Vaccine development and routine vaccination are still effective measures to globally reduce the incidence of mumps infections. During outbreaks, a third of MMR vaccine is recommended for groups of persons determined by public authorities.

Seasonality of Acute Retinal Necrosis

Purpose

To study the seasonal variability in the occurrence of acute retinal necrosis (ARN) in a series of polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive patients.

Methods

Consecutive patients clinically diagnosed with ARN and a positive PCR result of aqueous humor during a seven-year period were studied retrospectively. Patients' demographics, causative viral agent(s), and the date of disease onset were extracted from medical records.

Results

Twenty eyes of 20 patients were enrolled; the mean age at presentation was 39.6 ± 14.4 (range, 6–62) years. Nine patients were female. The most common causative agent was varicella-zoster virus in 16 patients (80%), followed by herpes simplex virus in two patients (10%). The disease onset was in winter in 10 patients (50%), and the highest incidence was in February (five patients, 25%). The cumulative occurrence of ARN was significantly higher in the first half of the year (winter and spring) compared to the second half of the year (summer and fall) (P = 0.030). In general, seasons with a high incidence of ARN were preceded by cold seasons.

Conclusion

In our series, we observed seasonal variability in the incidence of ARN, with the highest incidence during winter and spring. However, further epidemiologic studies in different geographical areas are required to elucidate the true seasonal nature of ARN.

Meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps in Fujian Province, China, 2005-2013: Non-linear effects

BACKGROUND

Mumps is still an important public health issue in the world with several recent outbreaks. The seasonable distribution of the disease suggested that meteorological factors may influence the incidence of mumps. The aim of this study was to explore the possible association between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps, and to provide scientific evidence to relevant health authorities for the disease control and prevention.

METHODS

We obtained the data of mumps cases and daily meteorological factors in Fujian Province in Eastern China over the period of 2005-2013. Using distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) approach, we assessed the relationship between the meteorological factors and mumps incidence.

RESULTS

The effects of meteorological factors on the mumps incidence were all non-linear. Compared with the lowest risk values, the upper level of precipitation, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity could increase the risk of mumps, whereas the low level of wind velocity, temperature, diurnal temperature range and sunshine duration may also increase the risk. Moderate atmospheric pressure and low wind velocity had larger cumulative effects within 30lagdays and the relative risks were 10.02 (95%CI: 2.47-40.71) and 12.45 (95%CI: 1.40-110.78). For temperature, the cumulative effect within 30lagdays of minimum temperature was higher than that from maximum temperature in most populations. The cumulative effects of minimum temperature for males, children aged 10-14 and students were higher than those in other populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Meteorological factors, especially temperature and wind velocity, should be taken into consideration in the prevention and warning of possible mumps epidemic. Special attention should be paid to the vulnerable populations, such as teenagers and young adults.

Trend, features and outcome of meningitis in the Communicable Diseases hospital, Alexandria, Egypt, 1997-2006

BACKGROUND

Following vaccine introduction, long-term epidemiological changes have been occurred in meningitis. Studying these changes is of practical importance for both public health planning and clinical management.

OBJECTIVES

To study trend in meningitis in Alexandria, Egypt (1997-2006) as well patients' characteristics and outcome.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The descriptive epidemiologic approach was adopted. Study population was all discharge records and computer files of meningitis admissions to the Communicable Diseases Hospital in Alexandria, Egypt, 1997-2006. Outcome measures were age, number and percentage of patients, organisms proportions and case fatality.

RESULTS

The study included 1210 recorded meningitis cases. Patients had a mean age of 22.26 years and a male to female ratio of 1.8 : 1. Study started with a sharp descent of yearly admissions (1997-1999) and ended by a sharp increase (2004-2006). Cases insignificantly increased during autumn through spring. Neisseria meningitidis was the dominant pathogen (28.9%) in all years. Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) was the second common agent (11.6%) with a decreasing frequency till 2000. Streptococcus pneumoniae was responsible for 8.9% of cases. Group B Streptococci and Haemophilus influenzae type b caused 2.8% and 2.4% of cases respectively. Both had a declining trend. Other bacteria (gram negative bacteria, non specific streptococci and staphylococci) was isolated in 2.7% whereas no organism could be identified in 45.6% of specimens. All agent differences were statistically significant where P<0.001. The mean hospital stay was 14.95 days. Overall case fatality was 17.6%. The most lethal was other bacteria [Odds Ratio=6.0, 95% Confidence interval=3.0-12.2]. Fatal outcome was predicted by short hospital stay (regression coefficient(r)=-0.17, P<0.001), diagnosis of other bacterial (r=1.75, P<0.001), pneumococcal (r=0.66, P=0.02) or tuberculous meningitis (r=0.59, P=0.04) and being an elderly (r=1.80, P<0.001) or an adult (r=1.03, P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Neisseria remained the main etiologic agent of meningitis. TB emerged as the second pathogen. Rate of bacterial un-detection was high. Mean age of meningitis had shifted to adult age. Other bacteria, pneumococci, MTB and advanced age were important predictors for mortality.

The association between the incidence of mumps and meteorological parameters in Taiwan

Mumps is caused by a paramyxovirus. It is an acute, but mild infectious disease. However, approximately 10% of patients with mumps can develop severe meningoencephalitis, disability, and death. Seasonal patterns in mumps vary across countries, but the reasons for this phenomenon remain unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the role of meteorological factors on mumps infection. We investigated the relationships between weather variability and the incidence of mumps in Taiwan using a Poisson regression analysis and case-crossover methodology. Between 2006 and 2011, 6,612 cases of mumps were reported to the Centers for Disease Control, Taiwan (Taiwan CDC). The incidence of mumps showed a significant seasonality in summertime (for oscillation, P < 0.001). The number of mumps started to increase at temperatures of 20°C (r(2) = 0.73, P < 0.001), and the case count of mumps began to decline when the temperatures were higher than approximately 25°C (r(2) = 0.24, p = 0.04), producing an inverted V-shaped relationship. Similarly, the number of mumps began to increase at a vapor pressure of 5-9 hPa (r(2) = 0.87, P < 0.005) and decreased at a vapor pressure higher than 25-29 hPa (r(2) = 0.21, p = 0.05). The number of mumps cases was positively associated with temperature and vapor pressure in the preceding period of the infection. In conclusion, this study showed that the occurrence of mumps is significantly associated with increasing temperature and vapor pressure in Taiwan. Therefore, these factors could be regarded as warning signals indicating the need to implement preventive measures.

Comparing Seasonal Pattern of Laboratory Confirmed Cases of Pertussis with Clinically Suspected Cases

Objectives

During recent decades, there has been limited attention on the seasonal pattern of pertussis within a high vaccine coverage population. This study aimed to compare the seasonal patterns of clinical suspected pertussis cases with those of laboratory confirmed cases in Iran.

Methods

The current study was conducted using time series methods. Time variables included months and seasons during 2011–2013. The effects of seasons and months on the incidence of pertussis were estimated using analysis of variance or Kruskal–Wallis.

Results

The maximum average incidence of clinically confirmed pertussis was 23.3 in July (p = 0.04), but the maximum incidence of clinical suspected pertussis was 115.7 in May (p = 0.6). The maximum seasonal incidences of confirmed and clinical pertussis cases were reported in summer (average: 12, p = 0.004), and winter (average: 108.1; p = 0.4), respectively.

Conclusion

The present study showed that the seasonal pattern of laboratory confirmed pertussis cases is highly definite and different from the pattern of clinical suspected cases.

Differences in Bordetella pertussis DNA load according to clinical and epidemiological characteristics of patients with whooping cough

OBJECTIVE

To identify associations between nasopharyngeal Bordetella pertussis DNA load and clinical and epidemiological characteristics and evaluate DNA load prognostic value in pertussis severity.

METHODS

Prospective observational multi-centre study including nasopharyngeal samples positive to pertussis DNA by real-time PCR collected from children and adult patients in more than 200 health centres of Catalonia (Spain) during 2012-2013.

RESULTS

B. pertussis load was inversely correlated with age (rho = -0.32, p < 0.001), time to diagnosis (rho = -0.33, p < 0.001) and number of symptoms (rho = 0.13, p = 0.002). Median bacterial load was significantly higher in inpatients versus outpatients (4.91 vs. 2.55 log10 CFU/mL, p < 0.001), patients with complications versus those without (6.05 vs. 2.82 log10 CFU/mL, p < 0.001), disease incidence in summer and autumn versus spring and winter (3.50 vs. 2.21 log10 CFU/mL, p = 0.002), and unvaccinated-partially vaccinated patients versus vaccinated (4.20 vs. 2.76 log10 CFU/mL, p = 0.004). A logistic regression model including bacterial load and other candidate prognostic factors showed good prediction for hospital care (AUC = 0.94) although only age and unvaccinated status were found to be prognostic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed strong positive associations of nasopharyngeal bacterial load with severity outcomes of hospitalisation and occurrence of complications. Bacterial load and other independent variables contributed to an accurate prognostic model for hospitalisation.

The relationship between meteorological factors and mumps incidence in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2012:

BACKGROUND

Over the past decade, there have been resurgences and large-scale outbreaks of mumps worldwide. Little evidence is available on the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps. We aimed to explore the effects of meteorological factors on mumps incidence.

METHODS

A Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to evaluate the association between meteorological factors and the mumps incidence in Guangzhou, China, 2005-2012.

RESULTS

Nonlinear relationships between meteorological factors, except sunshine hours, and mumps incidence were observed. The relative risks (RRs) of mean temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure were 1.81 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.41 to 2.32), 1.28 (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.59), and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95) comparing the 99th percentile to the median of their own, respectively. For wind velocity, the RR was 0.70 (95%CI, 0.54 to 0.91) comparing the 1st percentile to the median. The hot effect and cold effect were larger in females than in males, and the hot effect increased with age.

CONCLUSIONS

Mean temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and atmospheric pressure might be important predictors of the mumps incidence. Tropical cyclone caused a higher increase in mumps cases. Our findings highlight the need to strengthen the awareness of using protective measures during typhoon days and allocating more attention to the susceptible populations during the summer. The two-dose regimen of mumps vaccine should be included in the National Immunization Program schedule, and the catch-up vaccination campaigns should be promoted among adults.

Diagnostic value of symptoms and laboratory data for pertussis in adolescent and adult patients

Background

Several symptoms are classically thought to be suggestive of pertussis in children, but the diagnostic value of these symptoms in adolescent and adult patients is unclear. We evaluated the accuracy of the clinical findings for the early presumptive diagnosis of pertussis in adolescent and adult patients. Furthermore, we measured fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) with regard to whether we could distinguish eosinophilic inflammation of the airway and pertussis. FeNO is not expected to be associated with pertussis.

Methods

We compared 183 cases with laboratory-confirmed pertussis using serology and polymerase chain reaction and 1,132 cases without laboratory-confirmed pertussis.

Results

Among pertussis patients, paroxysmal cough was common with 90% sensitivity, but the specificity was low (25%). Posttussive vomiting and whoop were less common (sensitivity 25% and 19%, respectively), but both showed greater specificity for pertussis (80% and 86%, respectively). Posttussive gagging was observed with intermediate frequency and provided greater specificity (49% and 77%, respectively). Pertussis cases were most frequent between May and August with a peak in June. The mean FeNO value for the pertussis patients was 18.2 ± 9.2 ppb, which was significantly lower than that in asthma patients (56.9 ± 20.3 ppb, p <0.001). The most useful definition was posttussive vomiting and/or gagging, and a plus normal FeNO value, which had a sensitivity of 72% and a specificity of 70%.

Conclusions

Clinical symptoms and laboratory data are of limited value in making the diagnosis of pertussis, and it was clinically difficult to differentiate adolescent and adult patients with or without pertussis. However, pertussis should be considered if patients have posttussive vomiting and/or gagging and a normal FeNO concentration.

The effect of funded varicella immunization programs on varicella-related hospitalizations in IMPACT centers, Canada, 2000-2008

BACKGROUND

The 12 Immunization Monitoring Program, Active (IMPACT) centers that represent 90% of pediatric tertiary care beds in Canada conducted active surveillance for varicella-related hospitalizations and complications from 1999 onward, after varicella vaccine was authorized. Publicly funded routine immunization programs at 12 or 15 months of age were introduced by 5 provinces and territories (prov/terr) in 2000 to 2002 (earlier programs, EP) and by 8 prov/terr in 2004 to 2007 (later programs, LP).

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the number of varicella-related hospitalized cases had declined by 2008 at 12 IMPACT centers after the sequential introduction of publicly funded varicella immunization programs in Canada.

METHODS

Varicella-related hospitalizations from 2000 to 2008 in the prov/terr with EP were under surveillance by 3 IMPACT centers (Halifax, Edmonton, Calgary), whereas the prov/terr with LP were under surveillance by the remaining 9 centers. The age, gender, underlying health status, varicella complications, and length of stay in hospital and the pediatric intensive care unit were documented. Breakthrough cases were identified and their clinical characteristics described.

RESULTS

Between 2000 and 2008, the number of varicella-related hospitalized cases in IMPACT centers declined relatively sooner in prov/terr with EP (by 2002 to 2003), as compared to those with LP (only by 2007 to 2008). In 2008, varicella-related hospitalized cases declined by 88% in the EP centers, and by 81% in the LP centers. In all IMPACT centers, the greatest decline occurred in the 1-4 years age group (90% decline), with smaller declines in both <1 year and 5-9 years age groups (78% and 76% decline, respectively). Breakthrough disease accounted for 39 (2%) cases, with the proportion due to breakthrough increasing from 0.9% in 2000 to 2001, to 2% in 2003 to 2004 and 9.5% in 2007 to 2008. The majority (72%) of breakthrough cases were in immunocompromised children.

CONCLUSIONS

Publicly funded varicella vaccination programs have led to a significant decline in varicella-related hospitalizations in Canadian children, as a result of direct effects of the program beginning within 1 to 2 years after the start, as well as probable indirect protection of children outside the vaccinated cohort.

Effect of weather variability on the incidence of mumps in children: a time-series analysis

The increasing international interest in the potential health effects of climate change has emphasized the importance of investigations into the relationship between weather variability and infectious diseases. However, few studies have examined the impact of weather variability on mumps in children, despite the fact that children are considered particularly vulnerable to climate change. We acquired data about cases of mumps in children aged <15 years and weather variability in Fukuoka, Japan from 2000 to 2008, and then used time-series analyses to assess how weather variability affected mumps cases, adjusting for seasonal variations, inter-annual variations, and temporal variations of two large epidemics in 2001 and 2004-2005. The weekly number of mumps cases increased by 7·5% (95% CI 4·0-11·1) for every 1°C increase in average temperature and by 1·4% (95% CI 0·5-2·4) for every 1% increase in relative humidity. The percentage increase was greatest in the 0-4 years age group and tended to decrease with increasing age. The number of mumps cases in children increased significantly with increased average temperature and relative humidity.

Unusual climatic conditions and infectious diseases: observations made by Hippocrates

About 2500 years ago, Hippocrates made noteworthy observations about the influence of climate on public health. He believed that people living in cities with different climate may suffer from different diseases. Hippocrates also observed that abrupt climatic changes or unusual weather conditions affect public health, especially the incidence and severity of various infectious diseases, including gastrointestinal infections, tuberculosis, and central nervous system infections. We believe that Hippocrates' scientific observations are great early historic examples that stress to modern infectious diseases researchers and clinicians the need to study intensively the effect of the occurring global climate changes to infectious diseases in order to help in the prevention of possible epidemics of infections.

Temporal analysis of the incidence of meningitis in the Tehran metropolitan area, 1999-2005

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to describe the temporal determinants of meningitis incidence in the population living in the Tehran metropolis.

METHODS

All cases of meningitis reported to health districts throughout the Tehran metropolis from 1999 to 2005 were abstracted from patient files. Referral cases (patients who did not reside in the Tehran metropolis) were excluded. For each year, sex- and age-specific incidences were estimated. Temporality and its determinants were analyzed using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

Age-specific incidence is highest among males younger than 5 years of age at 10.2 cases per 100,000 population per year. The lowest incidence was among females aged 30 to 40 years at 0.72 cases per 100,000 population per year, with an overall male-to-female incidence ratio of 2.1. The temporal analysis showed seasonality, with a higher risk of meningitis in spring at a rate ratio of 1.31 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.20 to 1.41 and in autumn (rate ratio = 1.16, 95% CI 1.06, 1.27). For periodicity, we found a peak of occurrence around the years 2000 and 2003.

CONCLUSION

The epidemiology of meningitis in Iran follows similar patterns of age, sex, and seasonality distribution as found in other countries and populations.

Time trends and seasonal patterns of health-related quality of life among U.S. adults

OBJECTIVES

Although numerous studies have examined health-related quality of life (HRQOL) longitudinally, little is known about the impact of seasonality on HRQOL. We examined trend and seasonal variations of population HRQOL.

METHODS

We used data from the monthly Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). We examined monthly observed mean physically and mentally unhealthy days from January 1993 to December 2006, using the structural time-series model to estimate the trend and seasonality of HRQOL.

RESULTS

We found overall worsening physical and mental health during the time period and a significant and regular seasonal pattern in both physical and mental health. The worst physical health was during the winter and the best physical health was during the summer. The mean number of physically unhealthy days in January was 0.63 days higher than in July. The worst mental health occurred during the spring and fall, but the magnitude of the seasonal effect was much smaller. The difference between the best and worst months of mentally unhealthy days was approximately 0.23 days. We found significant differences in unadjusted and season-adjusted unhealthy days in many counties.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings can be used to examine time-varying causal factors and the impact of interventions, such as policies designed to improve population health. Our findings also demonstrated the need for calculating season-adjusted HRQOL scores when examining cross-sectional factors on the population HRQOL measures for continuous surveys or longitudinal data.

Environmental exposures and invasive meningococcal disease: an evaluation of effects on varying time scales

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is an important cause of meningitis and bacteremia worldwide. Seasonal variation in IMD incidence has long been recognized, but mechanisms responsible for this phenomenon remain poorly understood. The authors sought to evaluate the effect of environmental factors on IMD risk in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, a major urban center. Associations between monthly weather patterns and IMD incidence were evaluated using multivariable Poisson regression models controlling for seasonal oscillation. Short-term weather effects were identified using a case-crossover approach. Both study designs control for seasonal factors that might otherwise confound the relation between environment and IMD. Incidence displayed significant wintertime seasonality (for oscillation, P < 0.001), and Poisson regression identified elevated monthly risk with increasing relative humidity (per 1% increase, incidence rate ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 1.004, 1.08). Case-crossover methods identified an inverse relation between ultraviolet B radiation index 1–4 days prior to onset and disease risk (odds ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval: 0.34, 0.85). Extended periods of high humidity and acute changes in ambient ultraviolet B radiation predict IMD occurrence in Philadelphia. The latter effect may be due to decreased pathogen survival or virulence and may explain the wintertime seasonality of IMD in temperate regions of North America.

The frequency and seasonal variations in juvenile outpatients treated in a dermatology polyclinic

OBJECTIVE

This study was carried out to evaluate the frequency and seasonal characteristics of dermatological problems of juvenile outpatients in the dermatology polyclinic.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

Children under the age of 17 treated in an outpatient setting in our polyclinic within a 10-year period were retrospectively evaluated.

RESULTS

The study registered a total of 3244 patients, of whom 1651 (50.90%) were females, and 1593 (49.10%) were males. The largest group was infectious diseases, with 1031 patients (31.78%). This was followed by the dermatitis group with 635 patients (19.57%). The months when the number of presentations at the hospital was the highest were August and November, and the months with the lowest number of presentations were January and July.

CONCLUSION

In the present study we found that the most frequent cause of hospital visits of juvenile outpatients at our polyclinic was infectious diseases and dermatitis, and that there was significant correlation between diseases and seasons.

Mumps

Mumps is a common childhood infection caused by the mumps virus. The hallmark of infection is swelling of the parotid gland. Aseptic meningitis and encephalitis are common complications of mumps together with orchitis and oophoritis, which can arise in adult men and women, respectively; other complications include deafness and pancreatitis. Clinical diagnosis can be based on the classic parotid swelling; however, this feature is not present in all cases of mumps and can also occur in various other disorders. Laboratory diagnosis is based on isolation of virus, detection of viral nucleic acid, or serological confirmation (generally presence of IgM mumps antibodies). Mumps is vaccine-preventable, and one dose of mumps vaccine is about 80% effective against the disease. Routine vaccination has proven highly effective in reducing the incidence of mumps, and is presently used by most developed countries; however, there have been outbreaks of disease in vaccinated populations. In 2005, a large epidemic peaked in the UK, and in 2006 the American midwest had several outbreaks. In both countries, the largest proportion of cases was in young adults. In the UK, susceptible cohorts too old to have been vaccinated and too young to have been exposed to natural infections were the primary cause of the mumps epidemic. In the USA, effectiveness and uptake in combination appear not to have been sufficient to obtain herd immunity for mumps in populations such as college students.

Invasive pneumococcal and meningococcal disease: association with influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus activity?

Few studies have examined the relationship between viral activity and bacterial invasive disease, considering both influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). This study aimed to assess the potential relationship between invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), meningococcal disease (MD), and influenza virus and RSV activity in The Netherlands. Correlations were determined between population-based data on IPD and MD during 1997-2003 and influenza virus and RSV surveillance data. Incidence rate ratios of disease during periods of high influenza virus and RSV activity over the peri-seasonal and summer baseline periods were calculated. The analyses comprised 7266 and 3072 cases of IPD and MD. When data from all seasons were included, the occurrence of pneumococcal bacteraemia and MD correlated significantly with influenza virus and RSV activity both in children and adults. Periods of increased influenza virus and RSV activity showed higher rates of pneumococcal bacteraemia in older children and adults than the peri-season period. Rates of MD in children were also higher during periods of increased influenza virus activity; the same appeared true for MD in older children during periods of increased RSV activity. Although no causal relationship may be inferred from these data, they support a role for influenza virus and RSV in the pathogenesis of IPD and MD.

Recent change in the annual pattern of sexually transmitted diseases in the United States

This study analyzed the 1999 to 2003 database of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for seasonal and longer-term time trends in the sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in the United States. Linear regression was used to ascertain time trends, and a linear mixed auto-regression model was applied to determine the statistical significance of the major peaks relative to the annualized time series mean. A statistically significant increasing trend during the 5 yr span was documented only in the incidence of chlamydia. No clear annual periodicity was detected in any of the STDs; instead, significant three-month cycles were documented in all the STDs, with prominent peaks evident in March, May, August, and November. The March and May peaks could be associated with the sexual activities of young adults during spring break, which for different colleges and universities, commences as early as mid- to late-February and concludes as late as early- to mid-April, when huge numbers of sexually active youth congregate at beach resort settings. We propose the August peak is representative of summer sexual activity, in particular, of youths during school recess when adult supervision is poor. Finally, the autumn peak seems to be an expression of an endogenous annual rhythm in human reproductive biology, exemplified by elevated levels of testosterone in young males and sexual activity at this time of the year.

Chronobiology and chronotoxicology of antibiotics and aminoglycosides

Few investigators have examined the circadian variation in the symptom intensity of infectious diseases. Seasonal patterns in a variety of infectious are well know. Less appreciated are the circadian patterns in the symptom expression of infections. Studies indicate that fever which accompanies the common cold peaks at 4 p.m., and this is in agreement with other studies indicating that the elevation of body temperature, fever, due to bacterial infections is higher in the evening while that due to viral infections is more likely in the morning. Animal and human studies reveal also administration-time-dependent differences in the pharmacokinetics and toxicity of antimicrobial agents. This is particularly true for the aminoglycosides, as their nephrotoxicity is greatest when administered during the resting period of laboratory animals and human beings. Food intake and low urinary pH has been found to be protective of the toxicity of aminoglycosides at this time of the day. Knowledge of the administration-time-dependence of aminoglycosides and the underlying mechanisms can be used to develop once-a-day formulations that are significantly less toxic, in particular to the kidney, in patients who require around-the-clock antimicrobial therapy.

Season of birth and lung fibrosis among workers exposed to asbestos

The season of birth has been suggested to influence the development of some diseases, but its role in lung fibrosis seems to not have been studied previously. The aim of this study was to investigate the relation between the season of birth and fibrotic abnormalities as detected radiologically in high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) among workers exposed to asbestos. The HRCT examination was performed on 528 study subjects. Multiple ordinal regression analysis adjusting for covariates was used to study the relations between birth month or season and radiological fibrosis signs. Subjects born in autumn or winter had more extensive fibrotic changes than those born in spring or summer. This applied to all fibrotic changes, apart from subpleural nodules, but only the overall fibrosis score, septal lines, and honeycombing showed statistically significantly higher values in comparison to spring births. The highest scores were detected among those born in autumn and winter months (September-February). These results suggest that there are differences in fibrotic radiological abnormalities according to the season of birth in adults exposed to asbestos. Several hypotheses could explain the observed findings, including the effects of early respiratory infections, cold temperature, and differences in air pollution levels, as well as some metabolic and hormonal effects.