Commentary on Gmel & Rehm's interpretation of the theory of collectivity of drinking culture

To drink or not to drink: A study of the association between rates of non-drinkers and per drinker mean alcohol consumption in the Swedish general population

INTRODUCTION

Understanding how the mean consumption per drinker and rates of non-drinking interplay to form overall per capita alcohol consumption is imperative for our understanding of population drinking. The aim of the present study is to examine the association between rates of non-drinkers and per drinker mean alcohol consumption in the Swedish adult population and for different percentiles of drinkers.

METHODS

Data came from a monthly telephone survey of drinking habits in the Swedish adult population between 2002 and 2013. Alcohol consumption and non-drinking during the last 30 days were measured by beverage-specific quantity-frequency questions. Regression models estimated the association between the rate of non-drinkers and per drinker volume on annual data. Auto-regressive integrated moving average time-series models estimated the association on monthly data.

RESULTS

A significant (P < 0.01) negative association (-0.849) was found between the rate of non-drinkers and per drinker mean volume on annual data. A unit increase in non-drinking was associated with a decline of 0.85 cl of pure alcohol among drinkers. This finding was mirrored across all percentiles of consumption. The semi-log models found that a 1% unit increase in the rate of non-drinkers was followed by a 2% reduction in per drinker mean consumption. Auto-regressive integrated moving average time-series models verified these results.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

There is a significant association between the proportion of non-drinkers and the amount of drinking among drinkers. The theory of collectivity of drinking cultures should also include the non-drinking part of the population.

Trends in alcohol consumption among adolescents in Europe: Do changes occur in concert?

OBJECTIVE

The present paper extends the scope of testing Skog's theory on the 'collectivity of drinking culture' to adolescent alcohol use in 26 European countries. The aim was to 1) examine whether changes in adolescent alcohol use are consistent across different consumption levels, and 2) explore whether trends in heavy and light drinkers diverged or converged.

METHOD

Data came from six waves of the cross-sectional European School Survey Project on Alcohol and other Drugs (ESPAD) between 1999 and 2019. The sample consisted of n = 452,935 students aged 15-16 years. Trends in alcohol volume across consumption levels including abstainers were estimated by quantile regression models (50th, 80th, 90th and 95th percentile). Countries were classified according to trends showing (soft/hard) collectivity or (soft/hard) polarisation. Trends in heavy drinkers were compared with the population trend.

RESULTS

Trends in alcohol consumption at different levels across 26 European countries in the period 1999-2019 were not homogeneous. Collective changes were found in 15 (14 soft/1 hard), and polarised trends in 11 countries (5 soft/6 hard). Collectivity was generally associated with a declining trend. In 18 countries, trends in heavy and light drinkers diverged.

CONCLUSION

Accepting some variation in the strength of changes across consumption levels, changes in many European countries occurred in the same direction. Yet, diverging trends at different consumption levels in most countries indicate a less beneficial change in heavy compared with light drinkers, implying that in addition to universal population-level strategies, intervention strategies targeting specific risk groups are needed to prevent alcohol-related harm.

[Age-specific trends in risky drinking in Germany: collectivity or polarisation?]

Einleitung

Nach der Collectivity-of-Drinking-Cultures-Theorie von Skog finden Veränderungen des Alkoholkonsums in allen Bevölkerungsgruppen und -schichten als parallele Verschiebungen statt. Ziele des vorliegenden Beitrags sind (1) die Darstellung zeitlicher Trends des riskanten Konsums und des episodischen Rauschtrinkens nach Altersgruppen und Geschlecht und (2) die Prüfung, ob die Trends in allen Altersgruppen parallel verlaufen („Kollektivität“) oder zwischen Altersgruppen divergieren („Polarisierung“).

Methoden

Datengrundlage sind 9 Erhebungen des Epidemiologischen Suchtsurveys (ESA) zwischen 1995 und 2018. Als Schwellenwert für riskanten Alkoholkonsum wurde ein täglicher Konsum von mehr als 12 g Reinalkohol bei Frauen beziehungsweise 24 g bei Männern herangezogen. Episodisches Rauschtrinken wurde als Konsum von 5 oder mehr Gläsern Alkohol (ca. 70 g Reinalkohol) an mindestens einem Tag in den letzten 30 Tagen definiert. Lineare Regressionen wurden für die Vorhersage des zeitlichen Effekts auf riskanten Konsum bzw. Rauschkonsum nach Altersgruppen (18–29, 30–39, 40–49 und 50–59 Jahre) und Geschlecht getrennt berechnet und auf Unterschiede geprüft.

Ergebnisse

Die Entwicklungen riskanten Alkoholkonsums nach Altersgruppen verlaufen bei Männern weitgehend parallel, bei Frauen gegenläufig. Die Trends des episodischen Rauschtrinken weisen bei beiden Geschlechtern keine parallele Entwicklung auf: Während in der jüngsten und ältesten Altersgruppe die Prävalenz im Zeitverlauf anstieg, sank sie in den übrigen Altersgruppen.

Diskussion

Vor dem Hintergrund einer generellen Abnahme spricht die Zunahme in den Trends risikoreichen Alkoholkonsums in bestimmten Gruppen für einen Ausbau verhaltenspräventiver Maßnahmen. Zur Fortsetzung der positiven Entwicklung und der Vermeidung einer Trendumkehr sollten zudem auf die Gesamtbevölkerung ausgerichtete Präventionsanstrengungen intensiviert werden, beispielsweise durch Erhöhung der Alkoholsteuer oder Reduktion der Verfügbarkeit von Alkohol.

Zusatzmaterial online

Zusätzliche Informationen sind in der Online-Version dieses Artikels (10.1007/s00103-021-03328-7) enthalten.

Decline in alcohol consumption in Russia: Collectivity or polarisation?

INTRODUCTION

Sales and survey data have shown a decline in alcohol consumption in Russia since 2007. This study examines whether this decline is consistent across lighter and heavier drinkers in line with the theory of the collectivity of drinking cultures.

METHODS

Data were collected through annual nationally representative surveys conducted between 2006 and 2018 of 33 109 individuals aged 18-85 years. We estimated generalised linear regression with Gamma distribution and used log alcohol volume consumed during the previous 30 days as the dependent variable for five percentile groups: heavy drinkers (95th), near heavy drinkers (90th), moderate drinkers (80th), light drinkers (60th for men and 70th for women) and non-drinkers. Dummy variables for years, percentile groups and their interactions were used as independent variables. The controls were age, education, income, body weight, marital status, household demographic structure, residence, ethnicity and regional climate.

RESULTS

Reductions in alcohol consumption were observed in all percentiles, but the scale of change was proportionally smaller among heavier drinkers than among lighter drinkers. However, consumption fell by a smaller amount among lighter drinkers than among heavier drinkers. Results of the regression analysis fit with the descriptive statistics. Interactions between the time period and the percentile groups were significant after 2010. Trends were similar for both sexes.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Downward trends across percentiles were in the same direction but the magnitude of change varied. Obtained evidence fails to support a polarisation and points towards soft collectivity hypothesis in the reduction in drinking in Russia.

Is the theory of collectivity of drinking cultures valid across educational groups?

Introduction

To explore whether Skog's theory of collectivity of drinking cultures is valid across groups with different socioeconomic position (SEP).

Methods

Individual‐level information on alcohol consumption and SEP for the years 2004–2014 were retrieved from the Monitoring Project; a nationally representative monthly alcohol use survey. The analytical sample consisted of 162 369 respondents aged 25–79 years. SEP was measured by education level. Alcohol use was measured by yearly volume of consumption and frequency of heavy episodic drinking (HED). Respondents were divided into six SEP‐groups based on their education level and sex. Mean yearly volume consumption and prevalence of monthly HED was calculated for each group and graphically plotted against the overall mean volume of consumption.

Results

The yearly changes in overall mean consumption during the study period reflected a collective shift in drinking across groups with basic, intermediate and high education. There were also indications that changes in overall mean consumption reflected collective shifts in the prevalence of HED across the SEP‐groups. Moreover, while the magnitude of the associations for both average volume and HED differed somewhat in strength across the SEP‐groups, they were clearly in the same, positive, direction.

Discussion and Conclusions

Our findings add support for including a socioeconomic dimension to Skog's theory of collectivity of drinking cultures. Future studies should replicate our analyses on cases and periods with more tangible changes in the price and availability of alcohol.

The link between per capita alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm in educational groups

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

Research based on individual-level data suggests that the same amount of alcohol yields more harm in low-socioeconomic status (SES) groups than in high-SES groups. Little is known whether the effect of changes in population-level alcohol consumption on harm rates differs by SES-groups. The aim of this study was to elucidate this issue by estimating the association between per capita alcohol consumption and SES-specific rates of alcohol-related mortality.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Per capita alcohol consumption was proxied by Systembolaget's alcohol sales (litres 100% alcohol per capita 15+). Quarterly data on mortality and alcohol consumption spanned the period 1991Q1-2017Q4. We used two outcomes: (i) alcohol-specific mortality (deaths with an explicit alcohol diagnosis); and (ii) violent deaths. SES was measured by education. We used three educational groups: (i) low (<10 years); (ii): intermediate (10-12 years); and (iii) high (13+ years). We applied error correction modelling to estimate the association between alcohol and alcohol-specific mortality, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average-modelling to estimate the association between alcohol and violent deaths.

RESULTS

The estimated associations between per capita consumption and the two outcomes were positive and statistically significant in the two groups with low and intermediate education, but not in the high education group. There was a significant gradient in the level of association between alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm by educational group; the association was stronger the lower the educational group.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that the association between per capita consumption and alcohol-related harm was stronger the lower the educational group.

The effect of the severity of parental alcohol abuse on mental and behavioural disorders in children

Many studies have shown that children of alcohol abusing parents have a higher risk for mental and behavioural disorders compared to other children. Using a retrospective population-based cohort study, based on health care and social welfare registers that include children born in Finland in 1997 and their biological parents, we evaluated whether the severity of parental alcohol abuse is related to these disorders in children. We examined (1) differences in the incidence of mental and behavioural disorders over time among the children of parents with no alcohol problems, parents with less severe alcohol problems and parents with severe alcohol problems, and (2) associations between mother's and father's alcohol abuse and children's risk of disorders. Children were followed up until the age of 15. A diagnosis of mental or behavioural disorders during the follow-up was received by 15.4% of the boys and 9.0% of the girls. Both less severe alcohol abuse (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.14-1.61) and severe alcohol abuse (HR = 1.29, 95% CI 1.11-1.49) in mothers increased the risk of these disorders in their offspring. The corresponding figures among fathers were HR = 1.19, 95% CI 0.92-1.54 and HR = 1.16, 95% CI 1.02-1.32. Our results indicate that both maternal alcohol abuse and paternal alcohol abuse, regardless of severity, are associated with an increased risk of mental and behavioural disorders in children. It is crucial for professionals working with children to pay attention to all children whose parents have any alcohol abuse problems.

Collectivity of drinking behavior among adolescents: An analysis of the Norwegian ESPAD data 1995-2011

Aims

The aim of the current study was to test empirically two predictions from Skog's theory of collectivity of drinking behavior, using time series data from Norwegian adolescents. The two specific predictions were: 1) A change in mean alcohol consumption is positively associated with a change in the proportion of heavy drinkers, and 2) A change in mean alcohol consumption is positively associated with a change at all consumption levels.

Data & Methods

The present analyses are based on ESPAD data collected from Norwegian adolescents (15-16 years) in 1995, 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011. The relationship between mean consumption and the proportion of heavy drinkers was analyzed by regressing the proportions of heavy drinkers at each time point on the consumption means at each time point. In order to assess whether adolescents at all consumption levels, from light to heavy drinkers, changed collectively as mean consumption changed, we regressed log-transformed consumption means on the log-transformed percentile values (P25, P50, P75, P90 and P95). The analysis was restricted to adolescents who had consumed alcohol in the last 30 days (total n = 7554).

Results

The results showed a strong relationship between mean alcohol consumption and the proportion of heavy drinkers. An increase in mean consumption was also associated with an increase at all consumption levels, from light to heavy drinkers.

Conclusion

The results of the current study are in line with the theory of collectivity of drinking behavior. The findings of this study suggest that by reducing the total consumption of alcohol among adolescents, consumption and risk of harm may be reduced in all consumer groups.

Long-term effects of changes in Swedish alcohol policy: can alcohol policies effective during adolescence impact consumption during adulthood?

AIMS

To assess long-term effects of alcohol policy in Sweden by estimating the differences between cohorts growing up during periods with liberal alcohol policies and a cohort growing up during a period with restrictive alcohol policy.

DESIGN

The data come from repeated cross-sectional surveys conducted in Sweden between 2002 and 2013, and were collected monthly using telephone interviews with a nationally representative sample. Cohorts were constructed by identifying periods when alcohol policy differed between being more liberal or more restrictive. The liberal-period cohorts were merged into one and compared with the restrictive-period cohort.

SETTING

Sweden.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 127 480 adult Swedes born between 1951 and 1989.

MEASUREMENTS

Monthly volume of alcohol consumption in litres of pure alcohol derived from a beverage-specific graduated quantity-frequency scale.

FINDINGS

Relative to the liberal-period reference cohorts (who turned 15 between 1966 and 1977 or 1992 and 2004), the cohort that grew up during a period with restrictive alcohol policy (turning 15 between 1978 and 1991) was found to have lower alcohol consumption (coeff. = -0.039: confidence interval -0.050 to -0.027: P < 0.001). The mean volume for the liberal and restrictive cohorts across all survey years was 0.42 and 0.38 litres of pure alcohol, respectively. Consumption development for the period 2002-13 was, however, the same for both cohort groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Men and women in Sweden who grew up during a period with more restrictive alcohol policies currently drink less alcohol than those who grew up during periods with more liberal policies.

Does a Change Over All Equal a Change in All? Testing for Polarized Alcohol Use Within and Across Socio-Economic Groups in Germany

AIMS

This study aimed at testing whether drinking volume and episodic heavy drinking (EHD) frequency in Germany are polarizing between consumption levels over time. Polarization is defined as a reduction in alcohol use among the majority of the population, while a subpopulation with a high intake level maintains or increases its drinking or its EHD frequency. The polarization hypothesis was tested across and within socio-economic subgroups.

METHOD

Analyses were based on seven cross-sectional waves of the Epidemiological Survey of Substance Abuse (ESA) conducted between 1995 and 2012 (n = 7833-9084). Overall polarization was estimated based on regression models with time by consumption level interactions; the three-way interaction with socio-economic status (SES) was consecutively introduced to test the stability of effects over socio-economic strata. Interactions were interpreted by graphical inspection.

RESULTS

For both alcohol use indicators, declines over time were largest in the highest consumption level. This was found within all SES groups, but was most pronounced at low and least pronounced at medium SES.

CONCLUSION

The results indicate no polarization but convergence between consumption levels. Socio-economic status groups differ in the magnitude of convergence which was lowest in medium SES. The overall decline was strongest for the highest consumption level of low SES.

Adolescent alcohol use: a reflection of national drinking patterns and policy?

AIMS

To analyse how adolescent drunkenness and frequency of drinking were associated with adult drinking patterns and alcohol control policies.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Cross-sectional survey data on 13- and 15-year-olds in 37 countries who participated in the Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children (HBSC) Study in 2010 (n = 144 788) were linked to national-level indicators on alcohol control policies and adult drinking patterns.

MEASUREMENTS

Outcome measures were self-reported weekly drinking and life-time drunkenness (drunk once or more). Data were analysed using multi-level logistic regression models.

FINDINGS

In the mutually adjusted models, adolescent drunkenness was associated significantly with high adult alcohol consumption [odds ratio (OR) = 3.15 among boys, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.13-4.64, OR girls = 2.44, CI = 1.57-3.80] and risky drinking patterns in the adult population (OR boys = 2.02, CI = 1.33-3.05, OR girls = 1.61, CI = 1.18-2.18). The level of abstainers in the adult population was also associated significantly with girls' drunkenness; a 10% increase in the number of abstainers in a country reduced the odds of drunkenness with 21% (OR = 0.79, CI = 0.68-0.90). Weekly drinking was associated significantly with weak restrictions on availability (OR boys = 2.82, CI = 1.74-4.54, OR girls = 2.00, CI = 1.15-3.46) and advertising (OR boys = 1.56, CI = 1.02-2.40, OR girls = 1.79, CI = 1.10-2.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Comparing data cross-nationally, high levels of adult alcohol consumption and limited alcohol control policies are associated with high levels of alcohol use among adolescents.

The collectivity of changes in alcohol consumption revisited

AIMS

Within-country temporal changes in alcohol consumption in the United States, Finland and Norway were examined to assess (i) whether a change in mean alcohol consumption is accompanied by a change in the prevalence of heavy drinkers, (ii) whether this mean change reflects a collective displacement in the whole distribution of consumption and (iii) whether collective displacement is found for both an upward and a downward shift in mean consumption.

METHODS

We applied repeated cross-sectional survey data on distribution measures for estimated annual alcohol consumption from national population sample surveys covering 30-40-year periods in two countries with increasing trends in mean consumption (Finland and Norway) and one country with decreasing trends (the United States).

RESULTS

There was a strong positive association (P < 0.001) between changes in mean consumption and changes in the prevalence of heavy drinkers in all three countries. Moreover, a change in mean consumption was accompanied by a consumption change in the same direction in all consumer categories in all three countries, i.e. a collective displacement. The regression coefficients were approximately 1.

CONCLUSIONS

Drinkers at all levels of consumption appear to move in concert, both up and down the consumption scale, in Finland, Norway and the United States, as predicted by Skog's theory of the collectivity of drinking cultures.

Declining trends in alcohol consumption among Swedish youth-does the theory of collectivity of drinking cultures apply?

AIMS

To analyse trends in alcohol consumption among young people in Sweden between 2004 and 2012, to test whether the theory of collectivity of drinking cultures is valid for a population of young people and to investigate the impact of an increasing proportion of abstainers on the overall per capita trends.

METHODS

Data were drawn from an annual survey of a nationally representative sample of students in year 11 (17-18 years old). The data covered 9 years and the total sample comprised 36,141 students. Changes in the overall per capita consumption were tested using linear regression on log-transformed data, and changes in abstention rates were tested using logistic regression. The analyses were then continued by calculating average consumption in deciles.

RESULTS

Alcohol consumption among year 11 students declined significantly among both boys and girls between 2004 and 2012. These changes were reflected at all levels of consumption, and the same results were found when abstainers were excluded from the analyses. The increasing proportion of abstainers had a minimal effect on the overall decline in consumption; rather, this was driven by a decline in consumption among the heaviest drinkers.

CONCLUSION

The theory of collectivity of drinking cultures seems valid for understanding changes in alcohol consumption among Swedish year 11 students. No support was found for a polarization of alcohol consumption in this nationally representative sample.

Trend analysis and modelling of gender-specific age, period and birth cohort effects on alcohol abstention and consumption level for drinkers in Great Britain using the General Lifestyle Survey 1984-2009

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

British alcohol consumption and abstinence rates have increased substantially in the last 3 decades. This study aims to disentangle age, period and birth cohort effects to improve our understanding of these trends and suggest groups for targeted interventions to reduce resultant harms.

DESIGN

Age, period, cohort analysis of repeated cross-sectional surveys using separate logistic and negative binomial models for each gender.

SETTING

Great Britain 1984-2009.

PARTICIPANTS

Annual nationally representative samples of approximately 20 000 adults (16+) within 13 000 households.

MEASUREMENTS

Age (eight groups: 16-17 to 75+ years), period (six groups: 1980-84 to 2005-09) and birth cohorts (19 groups: 1900-04 to 1990-94). Outcome measures were abstinence and average weekly alcohol consumption. Controls were income, education, ethnicity and country.

FINDINGS

After accounting for period and cohort trends, 18-24-year-olds have the highest consumption levels (incident rate ratio = 1.18-1.15) and lower abstention rates (odds ratio = 0.67-0.87). Consumption generally decreases and abstention rates increase in later life. Until recently, successive birth cohorts' consumption levels were also increasing. However, for those born post-1985, abstention rates are increasing and male consumption is falling relative to preceding cohorts. In contrast, female drinking behaviours have polarized over the study period, with increasing abstention rates accompanying increases in drinkers' consumption levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Rising female consumption of alcohol and progression of higher-consuming birth cohorts through the life course are key drivers of increased per capita alcohol consumption in the United Kingdom. Recent declines in alcohol consumption appear to be attributable to reduced consumption and increased abstinence rates among the most recent birth cohorts, especially males, and general increased rates of abstention across the study period.

Who is not drinking less in Sweden? An analysis of the decline in consumption for the period 2004-2011

AIMS

This study aimed to analyse if changes in drinking in Sweden have been similar in different population subgroups between 2004 and 2011, a period when per capita consumption declined significantly.

METHOD

The analysis starts out from monthly alcohol survey data including 1500 telephone interviews every month. The population is divided into 20 equally large consumption groups separately for men and women and two broad age groups. Both absolute and relative changes in drinking are studied.

RESULTS

Most findings confirmed a collectivity of change in drinking: a decline was found at all consumption levels overall, among men and women, and among those under 50 years of age. The decline was smaller in groups with the highest consumption, and among those over 50 years consumption rather increased among the heaviest drinkers.

CONCLUSION

Support was obtained for the conception of a social component in recent consumption changes in Sweden. This finding has an important policy message in line with the total consumption model, namely that measures that reduce per capita consumption are likely to imply fewer heavy drinkers. Some exceptions from the collectivity theory that deserves attention in future studies were also noted, e.g. the development among heavier drinkers above 50 years of age.

Changes in alcohol availability, price and alcohol-related problems and the collectivity of drinking cultures: what happened in southern and northern Sweden?

Aims: The aims of this study were to study whether alcohol-related self-reported problems follow the same pattern of changes in alcohol consumption in southern Sweden, assumed to be affected by a decrease in Danish spirits tax and by an increase in Swedish travellers’ import quotas, and to study whether the results obtained for southern and northern Sweden follow the predictions of Skog's theory of collectivity of drinking cultures. Methods: Analysis was carried out on a sample from the  Swedish general population from southern and northern Sweden separately. Two indices such as impaired self-control/dependent behaviour and extrinsic problems for alcohol-related problems were computed and analysed in terms of sex, age, income and alcohol consumption level. Results: Although there were no huge changes in the number of persons reporting alcohol-related problems, the general trend in data for various subpopulations was a decrease in the southern site and an increase in the northern site. In the northern site, the increase in alcohol consumption among men also showed an increase in alcohol-related problems. However, various population subgroups changed in different directions and did not move in concert over the population distribution. Conclusions: Analysis confirmed that alcohol-related problems, according to the two indices used, followed a similar pattern to alcohol consumption, but less divergent. A version of Skog's theory applied on alcohol-related problems could not confirm that alcohol-related problems did not change collectively within the population.

Alcohol: no ordinary commodity--a summary of the second edition

This article summarizes the contents of Alcohol: No Ordinary Commodity (2nd edn). The first part of the book describes why alcohol is not an ordinary commodity, and reviews epidemiological data that establish alcohol as a major contributor to the global burden of disease, disability and death in high-, middle- and low-income countries. This section also documents how international beer and spirits production has been consolidated recently by a small number of global corporations that are expanding their operations in Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America. In the second part of the book, the scientific evidence for strategies and interventions that can prevent or minimize alcohol-related harm is reviewed critically in seven key areas: pricing and taxation, regulating the physical availability of alcohol, modifying the drinking context, drink-driving countermeasures, restrictions on marketing, education and persuasion strategies, and treatment and early intervention services. Finally, the book addresses the policy-making process at the local, national and international levels and provides ratings of the effectiveness of strategies and interventions from a public health perspective. Overall, the strongest, most cost-effective strategies include taxation that increases prices, restrictions on the physical availability of alcohol, drink-driving countermeasures, brief interventions with at risk drinkers and treatment of drinkers with alcohol dependence.

Artikel

Alcohol and Public Policy Group: Alcohol: No ordinary commodity – a summary of the second edition

This article summarizes the contents of Alcohol: No Ordinary Commodity (2nd edn). The first part of the book describes why alcohol is not an ordinary commodity, and reviews epidemiological data that establish alcohol as a major contributor to the global burden of disease, disability and death in high, middle and low income countries. This section also documents how international beer and spirits production has recently been consolidated by a small number of global corporations that are expanding their operations in Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In the second part of the book, the scientific evidence for strategies and interventions that can prevent or minimize alcohol-related harm is critically reviewed in seven key areas: pricing and taxation, regulating the physical availability of alcohol, modifying the drinking context, drink-driving countermeasures, restrictions on marketing, education and persuasion strategies, and treatment and early intervention services. Finally, the book addresses the policy making process at the local, national, and international levels and provides ratings of the effectiveness of strategies and interventions from a public health perspective. Overall, the strongest, most cost-effective strategies include taxation that increases prices, restrictions on the physical availability of alcohol, drink-driving countermeasures, brief interventions with at risk drinkers, and treatment of drinkers with alcohol dependence.

Flux and stability: individual fluctuations, regression towards the mean and collective changes in alcohol consumption

AIM

First, to extend the predictions of the collectivity theory of drinking cultures to contexts of ordinary panel data, thereby integrating collective change and individual fluctuations in consumption. Secondly, to develop a technique for controlling the regression towards the mean effect, in order to estimate the pattern of individual change, net of this effect.

DESIGN

The task is, first and foremost, to develop a theoretical model, guided by earlier contributions and empirical results. The applicability of the model is illustrated through re-analyses of panel data on annual intake of alcoholic beverages from the Finnish alcohol reform in 1968-69, and Norwegian panel data from 1975 to 1976.

FINDINGS

The model offers a reasonable fit to the data. It is demonstrated that a previous attempt at controlling the regression effect has overlooked a methodological complication, and therefore underestimates the real change.

CONCLUSION

Analysis of the Finnish data demonstrates that the large increase in average consumption was due to approximately the same percentage-wise increase in the consumption level of drinkers at all levels, when the regression effect was controlled for. Thus, in absolute terms the increase was largest among the heavier drinkers.