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Bertolotti M, Catellani P. Hindsight Bias and Electoral Outcomes: Satisfaction Counts More Than Winner-Loser Status. SOCIAL COGNITION 2021. [DOI: 10.1521/soco.2021.39.2.201] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
The tendency to perceive outcomes as more foreseeable once they are available is a well-known phenomenon. However, research on the cognitive and motivational factors that induce individuals to overestimate the foreseeability of an electoral outcome has yielded inconsistent findings. In three studies based on large-scale electoral surveys (ITANES, Italian National Election Studies), we argued that the tendency to perceive an electoral outcome as foreseeable is positively and consistently associated with satisfaction with the outcome. Across all studies, satisfaction with the outcome was significantly and positively associated with retrospective foreseeability, above and beyond voters’ preference for a “winning” or “losing” party. In Study 3, a measure of memory distortion of pre-electoral forecasts was included, which was only weakly associated with retrospective foreseeability, but not with satisfaction for the outcome, supporting the notion of different levels of hindsight bias associated with different cognitive and motivational factors.
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Abstract
Cheating has become commonplace in academia and beyond. Yet, almost everyone views themselves favorably, believing that they are honest, trustworthy, and of high integrity. We investigate one possible explanation for this apparent discrepancy between people's actions and their favorable self-concepts: People who cheat on tests believe that they knew the answers all along. We found consistent correlational evidence across three studies that, for those particular cases in which participants likely cheated, they were more likely to report that they knew the answers all along. Experimentally, we then found that participants were more likely to later claim that they knew the answers all along after having the opportunity to cheat to find the correct answers - relative to exposure to the correct answers without the opportunity to cheat. These findings provide new insights into relationships between memory, metacognition, and the self-concept.
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Hom Jr. HL, Van Nuland AL. Evaluating scientific research: Belief, hindsight bias, ethics, and research evaluation. APPLIED COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/acp.3519] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Harry L. Hom Jr.
- Psychology Department; Missouri State University; Springfield Missouri
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Marciano-Romm D, Romm A, Bourgeois-Gironde S, Deouell LY. The Alternative Omen Effect: Illusory negative correlation between the outcomes of choice options. Cognition 2015; 146:324-38. [PMID: 26500191 DOI: 10.1016/j.cognition.2015.10.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/11/2015] [Revised: 10/09/2015] [Accepted: 10/09/2015] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
Abstract
In situations of choice between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chosen option and the outcome of the unchosen option ("the alternative"). Extensive research has shown that when both outcomes are eventually revealed, the alternative's outcome influences the way people evaluate their own outcome. In a series of experiments, we examined whether the outcome of the alternative plays an additional role in the decision-making process by creating expectations regarding the outcome of the chosen option. Specifically, we hypothesized that people see a good (bad) alternative's outcome as a bad (good) sign regarding their own outcome when the two outcomes are in fact uncorrelated, a phenomenon we call the "Alternative Omen Effect" (ALOE). Subjects had to repeatedly choose between two boxes, the outcomes of which were then sequentially revealed. In Experiments 1 and 2 the alternative's outcome was presented first, and we assessed the individual's prediction of their own outcome. In Experiment 3, subjects had to predict the alternative's outcome after seeing their own. We find that even though the two outcomes were in fact uncorrelated, people tended to see a good (bad) alternative outcome as a bad (good) sign regarding their own outcome. Importantly, this illusory negative correlation affected subsequent behavior and led to irrational choices. Furthermore, the order of presentation was critical: when the outcome of the chosen option was presented first, the effect disappeared, suggesting that this illusory negative correlation is influenced by self-relevance. We discuss the possible sources of this illusory correlation as well as its implications for research on counterfactual thinking.
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Affiliation(s)
- Déborah Marciano-Romm
- Department of Psychology, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel; Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel.
| | - Assaf Romm
- Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel; Department of Economics, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Sacha Bourgeois-Gironde
- Department of Economics, LEMMA, Université Paris 2, Paris, France; Institut Jean-Nicod, École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France
| | - Leon Y Deouell
- Department of Psychology, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel; The Edmond & Lily Safra Center for Brain Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
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Other-serving bias in advice-taking: When advisors receive more credit than blame. ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN DECISION PROCESSES 2015. [DOI: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2015.06.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
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Abstract
Hindsight bias occurs when people feel that they "knew it all along," that is, when they believe that an event is more predictable after it becomes known than it was before it became known. Hindsight bias embodies any combination of three aspects: memory distortion, beliefs about events' objective likelihoods, or subjective beliefs about one's own prediction abilities. Hindsight bias stems from (a) cognitive inputs (people selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be true and engage in sensemaking to impose meaning on their own knowledge), (b) metacognitive inputs (the ease with which a past outcome is understood may be misattributed to its assumed prior likelihood), and (c) motivational inputs (people have a need to see the world as orderly and predictable and to avoid being blamed for problems). Consequences of hindsight bias include myopic attention to a single causal understanding of the past (to the neglect of other reasonable explanations) as well as general overconfidence in the certainty of one's judgments. New technologies for visualizing and understanding data sets may have the unintended consequence of heightening hindsight bias, but an intervention that encourages people to consider alternative causal explanations for a given outcome can reduce hindsight bias.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal J Roese
- Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University
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Zhu L, Zheng L, Chen M, Guo X, Li J, Chen L, Yang Z. The neural correlates of incidental self-processing induced by handwritten negative words. Exp Brain Res 2013; 228:1-8. [PMID: 23625078 DOI: 10.1007/s00221-013-3531-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2012] [Accepted: 04/15/2013] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
Abstract
Behavioral studies revealed that people were less likely to endorse negative information as self-descriptive. Neuroimaging studies have tapped on the neural mechanism underlying intentional self-processing of negative information using self-reflection tasks. Given that human self-processing occurring in our daily life is more likely to be captured by tasks involving incidental self-processing (automatic associations between the self- and external stimuli), rather than tasks involving intentional self-processing, it could be presumed that the relationship between self- and negative emotion might be better reflected during incidental self-processing. The present functional magnetic resonance imaging study aimed to explore incidental self-processing of negative information. To induce participants' incidental self-processing, we adopted negative and neutral words written by themselves or others as materials. They were scanned during judging whether the handwritten words were negative or neutral (additional non-self-task). Results revealed that incidental self-processing of negative information relied on the activation of left anterior insula, whereas medial prefrontal cortex activity was associated with incidental self-processing of neutral information.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lei Zhu
- Department of Psychology, Fudan University, Handan Road 220, Shanghai, 200433, China
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Blank H, Nestler S. Perceiving events as both inevitable and unforeseeable in hindsight: The Leipzig candidacy for the Olympics. BRITISH JOURNAL OF SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY 2011; 45:149-60. [PMID: 16628866 DOI: 10.1348/014466605x52326] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022]
Abstract
We present a new conceptualization of hindsight bias in terms of three separate hindsight components (foreseeability impressions, perceptions of necessity and memory distortions) and report three kinds of supporting evidence from an internet study (N = 101) of the unsuccessful application of the City of Leipzig to host the Olympic Games: (1) strongly diverging hindsight effects, (2) low intercorrelations between the components, and (3) dissociative effects of third variables on them. Specifically, experiencing the failure of the application as personally negative (due to a pro-application attitude and previous commitment), led to perceiving it as inevitable but also as unforeseeable. This surprising result helps to resolve seeming contradictions between previous findings (Louie, 1999; Mark et al., 2003; Tykocinski, 2001) by relating the opposite hindsight effects to differences in the nature and functions (dissonance reduction vs. coping with disappointment) of the foreseeability and necessity components.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hartmut Blank
- Institute of Psychology, University of Leipzig, Germany.
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Wallace HM, Chang M, Carroll PJ, Grace J. I Knew It All Along, Unless I Had to Work to Learn What I Know. BASIC AND APPLIED SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY 2009. [DOI: 10.1080/01973530802659844] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
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Blank H, Nestler S, von Collani G, Fischer V. How many hindsight biases are there? Cognition 2008; 106:1408-40. [PMID: 17764669 DOI: 10.1016/j.cognition.2007.07.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2006] [Revised: 07/16/2007] [Accepted: 07/20/2007] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
The answer is three: questioning a conceptual default assumption in hindsight bias research, we argue that the hindsight bias is not a unitary phenomenon but consists of three separable and partially independent subphenomena or components, namely, memory distortions, impressions of foreseeability and impressions of necessity. Following a detailed conceptual analysis including a systematic survey of hindsight characterizations in the published literature, we investigated these hindsight components in the context of political elections. We present evidence from three empirical studies that impressions of foreseeability and memory distortions (1) show hindsight effects that typically differ in magnitude and sometimes even in direction, (2) are essentially uncorrelated, and (3) are differentially influenced by extraneous variables. A fourth study found similar dissociations between memory distortions and impressions of necessity. All four studies thus provide support for a separate components view of the hindsight bias. An important consequence of such a view is that apparent contradictions in research findings as well as in theoretical explanations (e.g., cognitive vs. social-motivational) might be alleviated by taking differences between components into account. We also suggest conditions under which the components diverge or converge.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hartmut Blank
- Department of Psychology, University of Portsmouth, King Henry Building, King Henry I Street, Portsmouth PO1 2DY, United Kingdom.
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Pezzo MV, Beckstead JW. The effects of disappointment on hindsight bias for real-world outcomes. APPLIED COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY 2008. [DOI: 10.1002/acp.1377] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
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Roese NJ, Olson JM. Better, Stronger, Faster: Self-Serving Judgment, Affect Regulation, and the Optimal Vigilance Hypothesis. PERSPECTIVES ON PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE 2007; 2:124-41. [PMID: 18552989 PMCID: PMC2429993 DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-6916.2007.00033.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 103] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Self-serving judgments, in which the self is viewed more favorably than other people, are ubiquitous. Their dynamic variation within individuals may be explained in terms of the regulation of affect. Self-serving judgments produce positive emotions, and threat increases self-serving judgments (a compensatory pattern that restores affect to a set point or baseline). Perceived mutability is a key moderator of these judgments; low mutability (i.e., the circumstance is closed to modification) triggers a cognitive response aimed at affect regulation, whereas high mutability (i.e., the circumstance is open to further modification) activates direct behavioral remediation. Threats often require immediate response, whereas positive events do not. Because of this brief temporal window, an active mechanism is needed to restore negative (but not positive) affective shifts back to a set point. Without this active reset, an earlier threat would make the individual less vigilant toward a new threat. Thus, when people are sad, they aim to return their mood to baseline, often via self-serving judgments. We argue that asymmetric homeostasis enables optimal vigilance, which establishes a coherent theoretical account of the role of self-serving judgments in affect regulation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neal J Roese
- University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, London, Ontario, Canada
| | - James M Olson
- University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada
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Louie TA, Rajan MN, Sibley RE. Tackling the Monday-Morning Quarterback: Applications of Hindsight Bias in Decision-Making Settings. SOCIAL COGNITION 2007. [DOI: 10.1521/soco.2007.25.1.32] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
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Musch J, Wagner T. Did Everybody Know It All Along? A Review of Individual Differences in Hindsight Bias. SOCIAL COGNITION 2007. [DOI: 10.1521/soco.2007.25.1.64] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
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Louie TA. Hindsight bias and outcome-consistent thoughts when observing and making service provider decisions. ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN DECISION PROCESSES 2005. [DOI: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2005.03.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
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Hoffrage U, Pohl RF. Research on hindsight bias: a rich past, a productive present, and a challenging future. Memory 2003; 11:329-35. [PMID: 14562866 DOI: 10.1080/09658210344000080] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
Abstract
In this introduction to the present issue, we give a brief description of the phenomenon. Subsequently, we discuss the major theoretical accounts, focusing on how these are related to the papers included in the issue.
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Renner B. Hindsight bias after receiving self-relevant health risk information: A motivational perspective. Memory 2003; 11:455-72. [PMID: 14562874 DOI: 10.1080/09658210244000531] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
Abstract
The phenomenon of hindsight bias was explored in the context of self-relevant health risk information. Participants in a community screening estimated their cholesterol level (foresight measure) before receiving positive or negative feedback based on their actual cholesterol level. Hindsight estimations were then assessed twice: once immediately after the feedback, and again several weeks later. While the unexpected positive feedback group showed no systematic recall bias, hindsight estimations of individuals receiving unexpectedly negative feedback showed a dynamic change over time. Immediately after the feedback, participants' recollection of their expected cholesterol level were shifted towards their actual cholesterol level (hindsight bias). In contrast, several weeks later, foresight estimations were recalled as less accurate than they had been (reversed hindsight bias). These data might reflect a change of the motivational focus from "hot affect" and fear control, which occur immediately after receiving negative feedback, to danger control, which occurs some time after the feedback, as proposed by the dual process model.
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Affiliation(s)
- Britta Renner
- Psychologie, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-Universität Greifswald, Germany.
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Abstract
This paper examines predictions concerning the absence of hindsight bias. Some hypothesise that because hindsight bias increases with outcome "surprisingness", only unsurprising outcomes will remove it. Others suggest the opposite-that very surprising outcomes will reduce or reverse the bias. A proposed sense-making model suggests that unexpected outcomes (i.e., initially surprising) invoke greater sensemaking, which typically produces greater hindsight bias. If the process is not successful, however, the bias may be reduced or reversed. Expected outcomes will also produce little hindsight bias, but only because they invoke relatively little sensemaking in the first place. Feelings of surprise arising from sensemaking (i.e., resultant surprise) should be inversely related to hindsight bias. Results of four experiments provide support for the model. A secondary goal was to determine the boundaries of a defensive-processing mechanism also thought to reduce hindsight bias for negative, self-relevant outcomes. Results suggest that a sense of responsibility for the outcome may be necessary for defensive processing to be activated.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark V Pezzo
- Department of Psychology, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg 33701, USA.
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Pohl RF, Eisenhauer M, Hardt O. SARA: A cognitive process model to simulate the anchoring effect and hindsight bias. Memory 2003; 11:337-56. [PMID: 14562867 DOI: 10.1080/09658210244000487] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
Abstract
The cognitive process model "SARA" aims to explain the anchoring effect and hindsight bias by making detailed assumptions about the representation and alteration of item-specific knowledge. The model assumes that all processes, namely generating an estimate, encoding new information (i.e., the "anchor"), and reconstructing a previously generated estimate, are based on a probabilistic sampling process. Sampling probes long-term memory in order to retrieve information into working memory. Retrieval depends on the associative strength between this information and the currently active retrieval cues. Encoding the anchor may alter this associative pattern ("selective activation") or the anchor may serve as a retrieval cue, thus directing memory search ("biased reconstruction"). Both processes lead to systematically changed retrieval probabilities, thus causing the anchoring effect or hindsight bias. The model is completely formalised and implemented as a computer program. A series of simulations demonstrates the power of SARA to reproduce empirical findings and to predict new ones.
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Abstract
Two studies on political hindsight bias were conducted on the occasions of the German parliament election in 1998 and the Nordrhein-Westfalen state parliament election in 2000. In both studies, participants predicted the percentage of votes for several political parties and recalled these predictions after the election. The observed hindsight effects were stronger than those found in any prior study on political elections (using percentage of votes as the dependent variable). We argue that the length of the retention interval between original judgement and recollection is mainly responsible for this difference. In our second study, we investigated possible artifacts in political hindsight biases using a control-group design where half of the participants recalled their predictions shortly before or after the election. Hindsight bias was preserved, reinforcing the results of earlier studies with non-control-group designs. Finally, we discuss the possibility that the hindsight experience (in political judgement and in general) actually consists of three different, partly independent components.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hartmut Blank
- Institut für Allgemeine Psychologie, University of Leipzig, Germany.
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