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Zhou F, Ran X, Song F, Wu Q, Jia Y, Liang Y, Chen S, Zhang G, Dong J, Wang Y. A stepwise prediction and interpretation of gestational diabetes mellitus: Foster the practical application of machine learning in clinical decision. Heliyon 2024; 10:e32709. [PMID: 38975148 PMCID: PMC11225730 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e32709] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2023] [Revised: 04/22/2024] [Accepted: 06/07/2024] [Indexed: 07/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Background Machine learning has shown to be an effective method for early prediction and intervention of Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), which greatly decreases GDM incidence, reduces maternal and infant complications and improves the prognosis. However, there is still much room for improvement in data quality, feature dimension, and accuracy. The contributions and mechanism explanations of clinical data at different pregnancy stages to the prediction accuracy are still lacking. More importantly, current models still face notable obstacles in practical applications due to the complex and diverse input features and difficulties in redeployment. As a result, a simple, practical but accurate enough model is urgently needed. Design and methods In this study, 2309 samples from two public hospitals in Shenzhen, China were collected for analysis. Different algorithms were systematically compared to build a robust and stepwise prediction system (level A to C) based on advanced machine learning, and models under different levels were interpreted. Results XGBoost reported the best performance with ACC of 0.922, 0.859 and 0.850, AUC of 0.974, 0.924 and 0.913 for the selected level A to C models in the test set, respectively. Tree-based feature importance and SHAP method successfully identified the commonly recognized risk factors, while indicated new inconsistent impact trends for GDM in different stages of pregnancy. Conclusion A stepwise prediction system was successfully established. A practical tool that enables a quick prediction of GDM was released at https://github.com/ifyoungnet/MedGDM.This study is expected to provide a more detailed profiling of GDM risk and lay the foundation for the application of the model in practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fang Zhou
- Department of Pharmacy, Southern University of Science and Technology Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518055, PR China
| | - Xiao Ran
- School of Food Science and Engineering, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, 410004, PR China
- SINOCARE Inc., Changsha, 410004, PR China
| | - Fangliang Song
- School of Food Science and Engineering, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, 410004, PR China
| | - Qinglan Wu
- Department of Pharmacy, Southern University of Science and Technology Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518055, PR China
| | - Yuan Jia
- Department of Pharmacy, Southern University of Science and Technology Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518055, PR China
| | - Ying Liang
- School of Food Science and Engineering, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, 410004, PR China
| | - Suichen Chen
- Department of Pharmacy, Southern University of Science and Technology Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518055, PR China
| | - Guojun Zhang
- Department of Pharmacy, Southern University of Science and Technology Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518055, PR China
| | - Jie Dong
- Xiangya School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Central South University, Changsha, 410083, PR China
| | - Yukun Wang
- Department of Pharmacy, Southern University of Science and Technology Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518055, PR China
- Department of Pharmacology, School of Medicine, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518055, PR China
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Li YX, Liu YC, Wang M, Huang YL. Prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus at the first trimester: machine-learning algorithms. Arch Gynecol Obstet 2024; 309:2557-2566. [PMID: 37477677 DOI: 10.1007/s00404-023-07131-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/09/2023] [Accepted: 06/27/2023] [Indexed: 07/22/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE Short- and long-term complications of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) involving pregnancies and offspring warrant the development of an effective individualized risk prediction model to reduce and prevent GDM together with its associated co-morbidities. The aim is to use machine learning (ML) algorithms to study data gathered throughout the first trimester in order to predict GDM. METHODS Two independent cohorts with forty-five features gathered through first trimester were included. We constructed prediction models based on three different algorithms and traditional logistic regression, and deployed additional two ensemble algorithms to identify the importance of individual features. RESULTS 4799 and 2795 pregnancies were included in the Xinhua Hospital Chongming branch (XHCM) and the Shanghai Pudong New Area People's Hospital (SPNPH) cohorts, respectively. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) predicted GDM with moderate performance (the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) = 0.75) at pregnancy initiation and good-to-excellent performance (AUC = 0.99) at the end of the first trimester in the XHCM cohort. The trained XGBoost showed moderate performance in the SPNPH cohort (AUC = 0.83). The top predictive features for GDM diagnosis were pre-pregnancy BMI and maternal abdominal circumference at pregnancy initiation, and FPG and HbA1c at the end of the first trimester. CONCLUSION Our work demonstrated that ML models based on the data gathered throughout the first trimester achieved moderate performance in the external validation cohort.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi-Xin Li
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Chongming Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Medicine and Health Sciences (Xinhua Hospital Chongming Branch), Shanghai, China
| | - Yi-Chen Liu
- Department of Nephrology, Chongming Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Medicine and Health Sciences (Xinhua Hospital Chongming Branch), Shanghai, China
| | - Mei Wang
- Department of Gynecology, Shanghai Pudong New Area People's Hospital, Shanghai, China
| | - Yu-Li Huang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Chongming Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Medicine and Health Sciences (Xinhua Hospital Chongming Branch), Shanghai, China.
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Xing J, Dong K, Liu X, Ma J, Yuan E, Zhang L, Fang Y. Enhancing gestational diabetes mellitus risk assessment and treatment through GDMPredictor: a machine learning approach. J Endocrinol Invest 2024:10.1007/s40618-024-02328-z. [PMID: 38460091 DOI: 10.1007/s40618-024-02328-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2023] [Accepted: 01/30/2024] [Indexed: 03/11/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a serious health concern that affects pregnant women worldwide and can lead to adverse pregnancy outcomes. Early detection of high-risk individuals and the implementation of appropriate treatment can enhance these outcomes. METHODS We conducted a study on a cohort of 3467 pregnant women during their pregnancy, with a total of 5649 clinical and biochemical records collected. We utilized this dataset as our training dataset to develop a web server called GDMPredictor. The GDMPredictor utilizes advanced machine learning techniques to predict the risk of GDM in pregnant women. We also personalize treatment recommendations based on essential biochemical indicators, such as A1MG, BMG, CysC, CO2, TBA, FPG, and CREA. Our assessment of GDMPredictor's effectiveness involved training it on the dataset of 3467 pregnant women and measuring its ability to predict GDM risk using an AUC and auPRC. RESULTS GDMPredictor demonstrated an impressive level of precision by achieving an AUC score of 0.967. To tailor our treatment recommendations, we use the GDM risk level to identify higher risk candidates who require more intensive care. The GDMPredictor can accept biochemical indicators for predicting the risk of GDM at any period from 1 to 24 weeks, providing healthcare professionals with an intuitive interface to identify high-risk patients and give optimal treatment recommendations. CONCLUSIONS The GDMPredictor presents a valuable asset for clinical practice, with the potential to change the management of GDM in pregnant women. Its high accuracy and efficiency make it a reliable tool for doctors to improve patient outcomes. Early identification of high-risk individuals and tailored treatment can improve maternal and fetal health outcomes http://www.bioinfogenetics.info/GDM/ .
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Affiliation(s)
- J Xing
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, 7 Kangfu Qian Street, Zhengzhou, 450052, Henan, People's Republic of China
- Zhengzhou Key Laboratory for In Vitro Diagnosis of Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy, Zhengzhou, 450052, People's Republic of China
| | - K Dong
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, 7 Kangfu Qian Street, Zhengzhou, 450052, Henan, People's Republic of China
- Zhengzhou Key Laboratory for In Vitro Diagnosis of Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy, Zhengzhou, 450052, People's Republic of China
| | - X Liu
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, 7 Kangfu Qian Street, Zhengzhou, 450052, Henan, People's Republic of China
- Zhengzhou Key Laboratory for In Vitro Diagnosis of Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy, Zhengzhou, 450052, People's Republic of China
| | - J Ma
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, 7 Kangfu Qian Street, Zhengzhou, 450052, Henan, People's Republic of China
- Zhengzhou Key Laboratory for In Vitro Diagnosis of Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy, Zhengzhou, 450052, People's Republic of China
| | - E Yuan
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, 7 Kangfu Qian Street, Zhengzhou, 450052, Henan, People's Republic of China.
- Zhengzhou Key Laboratory for In Vitro Diagnosis of Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy, Zhengzhou, 450052, People's Republic of China.
| | - L Zhang
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, 7 Kangfu Qian Street, Zhengzhou, 450052, Henan, People's Republic of China.
- Zhengzhou Key Laboratory for In Vitro Diagnosis of Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy, Zhengzhou, 450052, People's Republic of China.
| | - Y Fang
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, 7 Kangfu Qian Street, Zhengzhou, 450052, Henan, People's Republic of China.
- Zhengzhou Key Laboratory for In Vitro Diagnosis of Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy, Zhengzhou, 450052, People's Republic of China.
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Shamshuzzoha M, Islam MM. Early Prediction Model of Macrosomia Using Machine Learning for Clinical Decision Support. Diagnostics (Basel) 2023; 13:2754. [PMID: 37685292 PMCID: PMC10487237 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics13172754] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2023] [Revised: 07/21/2023] [Accepted: 07/22/2023] [Indexed: 09/10/2023] Open
Abstract
The condition of fetal overgrowth, also known as macrosomia, can cause serious health complications for both the mother and the infant. It is crucial to identify high-risk macrosomia-relevant pregnancies and intervene appropriately. Despite this need, there are several gaps in research related to macrosomia, including limited predictive models, insufficient machine learning applications, ineffective interventions, and inadequate understanding of how to integrate machine learning models into clinical decision-making. To address these gaps, we developed a machine learning-based model that uses maternal characteristics and medical history to predict macrosomia. Three different algorithms, namely logistic regression, support vector machine, and random forest, were used to develop the model. Based on the evaluation metrics, the logistic regression algorithm provided the best results among the three. The logistic regression algorithm was chosen as the final algorithm to predict macrosomia. The hyper parameters of the logistic regression model were tuned using cross-validation to achieve the best possible performance. Our results indicate that machine learning-based models have the potential to improve macrosomia prediction and enable appropriate interventions for high-risk pregnancies, leading to better health outcomes for both mother and fetus. By leveraging machine learning algorithms and addressing research gaps related to macrosomia, we can potentially reduce the health risks associated with this condition and make informed decisions about high-risk pregnancies.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Md. Motaharul Islam
- Department of CSE, United International University, Madani Avenue, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh;
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Mennickent D, Rodríguez A, Opazo MC, Riedel CA, Castro E, Eriz-Salinas A, Appel-Rubio J, Aguayo C, Damiano AE, Guzmán-Gutiérrez E, Araya J. Machine learning applied in maternal and fetal health: a narrative review focused on pregnancy diseases and complications. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) 2023; 14:1130139. [PMID: 37274341 PMCID: PMC10235786 DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2023.1130139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2022] [Accepted: 05/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction Machine learning (ML) corresponds to a wide variety of methods that use mathematics, statistics and computational science to learn from multiple variables simultaneously. By means of pattern recognition, ML methods are able to find hidden correlations and accomplish accurate predictions regarding different conditions. ML has been successfully used to solve varied problems in different areas of science, such as psychology, economics, biology and chemistry. Therefore, we wondered how far it has penetrated into the field of obstetrics and gynecology. Aim To describe the state of art regarding the use of ML in the context of pregnancy diseases and complications. Methodology Publications were searched in PubMed, Web of Science and Google Scholar. Seven subjects of interest were considered: gestational diabetes mellitus, preeclampsia, perinatal death, spontaneous abortion, preterm birth, cesarean section, and fetal malformations. Current state ML has been widely applied in all the included subjects. Its uses are varied, the most common being the prediction of perinatal disorders. Other ML applications include (but are not restricted to) biomarker discovery, risk estimation, correlation assessment, pharmacological treatment prediction, drug screening, data acquisition and data extraction. Most of the reviewed articles were published in the last five years. The most employed ML methods in the field are non-linear. Except for logistic regression, linear methods are rarely used. Future challenges To improve data recording, storage and update in medical and research settings from different realities. To develop more accurate and understandable ML models using data from cutting-edge instruments. To carry out validation and impact analysis studies of currently existing high-accuracy ML models. Conclusion The use of ML in pregnancy diseases and complications is quite recent, and has increased over the last few years. The applications are varied and point not only to the diagnosis, but also to the management, treatment, and pathophysiological understanding of perinatal alterations. Facing the challenges that come with working with different types of data, the handling of increasingly large amounts of information, the development of emerging technologies, and the need of translational studies, it is expected that the use of ML continue growing in the field of obstetrics and gynecology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniela Mennickent
- Departamento de Bioquímica Clínica e Inmunología, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
- Departamento de Análisis Instrumental, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
- Machine Learning Applied in Biomedicine (MLAB), Concepción, Chile
| | - Andrés Rodríguez
- Machine Learning Applied in Biomedicine (MLAB), Concepción, Chile
- Departamento de Ciencias Básicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad del Bío-Bío, Chillán, Chile
| | - Ma. Cecilia Opazo
- Instituto de Ciencias Naturales, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Agronomía, Universidad de Las Américas, Santiago, Chile
- Millennium Institute on Immunology and Immunotherapy, Santiago, Chile
| | - Claudia A. Riedel
- Millennium Institute on Immunology and Immunotherapy, Santiago, Chile
- Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andrés Bello, Santiago, Chile
| | - Erica Castro
- Departamento de Obstetricia y Puericultura, Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Atacama, Copiapó, Chile
| | - Alma Eriz-Salinas
- Departamento de Obstetricia y Puericultura, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
| | - Javiera Appel-Rubio
- Departamento de Bioquímica Clínica e Inmunología, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
| | - Claudio Aguayo
- Departamento de Bioquímica Clínica e Inmunología, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
| | - Alicia E. Damiano
- Cátedra de Biología Celular y Molecular, Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas, Facultad de Farmacia y Bioquímica, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
- Laboratorio de Biología de la Reproducción, Instituto de Fisiología y Biofísica Bernardo Houssay (IFIBIO-Houssay)- CONICET, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Enrique Guzmán-Gutiérrez
- Departamento de Bioquímica Clínica e Inmunología, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
- Machine Learning Applied in Biomedicine (MLAB), Concepción, Chile
| | - Juan Araya
- Departamento de Análisis Instrumental, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
- Machine Learning Applied in Biomedicine (MLAB), Concepción, Chile
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Gallardo-Rincón H, Ríos-Blancas MJ, Ortega-Montiel J, Montoya A, Martinez-Juarez LA, Lomelín-Gascón J, Saucedo-Martínez R, Mújica-Rosales R, Galicia-Hernández V, Morales-Juárez L, Illescas-Correa LM, Ruiz-Cabrera IL, Díaz-Martínez DA, Magos-Vázquez FJ, Ávila EOV, Benitez-Herrera AE, Reyes-Gómez D, Carmona-Ramos MC, Hernández-González L, Romero-Islas O, Muñoz ER, Tapia-Conyer R. MIDO GDM: an innovative artificial intelligence-based prediction model for the development of gestational diabetes in Mexican women. Sci Rep 2023; 13:6992. [PMID: 37117235 PMCID: PMC10144896 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-34126-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/11/2022] [Accepted: 04/25/2023] [Indexed: 04/30/2023] Open
Abstract
Given the barriers to early detection of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), this study aimed to develop an artificial intelligence (AI)-based prediction model for GDM in pregnant Mexican women. Data were retrieved from 1709 pregnant women who participated in the multicenter prospective cohort study 'Cuido mi embarazo'. A machine-learning-driven method was used to select the best predictive variables for GDM risk: age, family history of type 2 diabetes, previous diagnosis of hypertension, pregestational body mass index, gestational week, parity, birth weight of last child, and random capillary glucose. An artificial neural network approach was then used to build the model, which achieved a high level of accuracy (70.3%) and sensitivity (83.3%) for identifying women at high risk of developing GDM. This AI-based model will be applied throughout Mexico to improve the timing and quality of GDM interventions. Given the ease of obtaining the model variables, this model is expected to be clinically strategic, allowing prioritization of preventative treatment and promising a paradigm shift in prevention and primary healthcare during pregnancy. This AI model uses variables that are easily collected to identify pregnant women at risk of developing GDM with a high level of accuracy and precision.
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Affiliation(s)
- Héctor Gallardo-Rincón
- University of Guadalajara, Health Sciences University Center, 44340, Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
- Carlos Slim Foundation, Lago Zurich 245, Presa Falcon Building (Floor 20), Col. Ampliacion Granada, 11529, Mexico City, Miguel Hidalgo, Mexico
| | - María Jesús Ríos-Blancas
- Carlos Slim Foundation, Lago Zurich 245, Presa Falcon Building (Floor 20), Col. Ampliacion Granada, 11529, Mexico City, Miguel Hidalgo, Mexico
- National Institute of Public Health, Universidad 655, Santa María Ahuacatitlan, 62100, Cuernavaca, Mexico
| | - Janinne Ortega-Montiel
- Carlos Slim Foundation, Lago Zurich 245, Presa Falcon Building (Floor 20), Col. Ampliacion Granada, 11529, Mexico City, Miguel Hidalgo, Mexico
| | - Alejandra Montoya
- Carlos Slim Foundation, Lago Zurich 245, Presa Falcon Building (Floor 20), Col. Ampliacion Granada, 11529, Mexico City, Miguel Hidalgo, Mexico
| | - Luis Alberto Martinez-Juarez
- Carlos Slim Foundation, Lago Zurich 245, Presa Falcon Building (Floor 20), Col. Ampliacion Granada, 11529, Mexico City, Miguel Hidalgo, Mexico.
| | - Julieta Lomelín-Gascón
- Carlos Slim Foundation, Lago Zurich 245, Presa Falcon Building (Floor 20), Col. Ampliacion Granada, 11529, Mexico City, Miguel Hidalgo, Mexico
| | - Rodrigo Saucedo-Martínez
- Carlos Slim Foundation, Lago Zurich 245, Presa Falcon Building (Floor 20), Col. Ampliacion Granada, 11529, Mexico City, Miguel Hidalgo, Mexico
| | - Ricardo Mújica-Rosales
- Carlos Slim Foundation, Lago Zurich 245, Presa Falcon Building (Floor 20), Col. Ampliacion Granada, 11529, Mexico City, Miguel Hidalgo, Mexico
| | - Victoria Galicia-Hernández
- Carlos Slim Foundation, Lago Zurich 245, Presa Falcon Building (Floor 20), Col. Ampliacion Granada, 11529, Mexico City, Miguel Hidalgo, Mexico
| | - Linda Morales-Juárez
- Carlos Slim Foundation, Lago Zurich 245, Presa Falcon Building (Floor 20), Col. Ampliacion Granada, 11529, Mexico City, Miguel Hidalgo, Mexico
| | | | - Ixel Lorena Ruiz-Cabrera
- Maternal and Childhood Research Center (CIMIGEN), Tlahuac 1004, Iztapalapa, 09890, Mexico City, Mexico
| | | | | | | | - Alejandro Efraín Benitez-Herrera
- Ministry of Health of the State of Hidalgo, Fraccionamiento Puerta de Hierro, Avenida de La Mineria 103, 42080, Pachuca, Hidalgo, Mexico
| | - Diana Reyes-Gómez
- Ministry of Health of the State of Hidalgo, Fraccionamiento Puerta de Hierro, Avenida de La Mineria 103, 42080, Pachuca, Hidalgo, Mexico
| | - María Concepción Carmona-Ramos
- Ministry of Health of the State of Hidalgo, Fraccionamiento Puerta de Hierro, Avenida de La Mineria 103, 42080, Pachuca, Hidalgo, Mexico
| | - Laura Hernández-González
- Ministry of Health of the State of Hidalgo, Fraccionamiento Puerta de Hierro, Avenida de La Mineria 103, 42080, Pachuca, Hidalgo, Mexico
| | - Oscar Romero-Islas
- Ministry of Health of the State of Hidalgo, Fraccionamiento Puerta de Hierro, Avenida de La Mineria 103, 42080, Pachuca, Hidalgo, Mexico
| | - Enrique Reyes Muñoz
- Department of Endocrinology, National Institute of Perinatology, Montes Urales 800, Lomas de Chapultepec, Miguel Hidalgo, 11000, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Roberto Tapia-Conyer
- School of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Universidad 3004, Coyoacan, 04510, Mexico City, Mexico
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Hu X, Hu X, Yu Y, Wang J. Prediction model for gestational diabetes mellitus using the XG Boost machine learning algorithm. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) 2023; 14:1105062. [PMID: 36967760 PMCID: PMC10034315 DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2023.1105062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2022] [Accepted: 01/30/2023] [Indexed: 03/29/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To develop the extreme gradient boosting (XG Boost) machine learning (ML) model for predicting gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) compared with a model using the traditional logistic regression (LR) method. METHODS A case-control study was carried out among pregnant women, who were assigned to either the training set (these women were recruited from August 2019 to November 2019) or the testing set (these women were recruited in August 2020). We applied the XG Boost ML model approach to identify the best set of predictors out of a set of 33 variables. The performance of the prediction model was determined by using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) to assess discrimination, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test and calibration plots to assess calibration. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was introduced to evaluate the clinical use of each of the models. RESULTS A total of 735 and 190 pregnant women were included in the training and testing sets, respectively. The XG Boost ML model, which included 20 predictors, resulted in an AUC of 0.946 and yielded a predictive accuracy of 0.875, whereas the model using a traditional LR included four predictors and presented an AUC of 0.752 and yielded a predictive accuracy of 0.786. The HL test and calibration plots show that the two models have good calibration. DCA indicated that treating only those women whom the XG Boost ML model predicts are at risk of GDM confers a net benefit compared with treating all women or treating none. CONCLUSIONS The established model using XG Boost ML showed better predictive ability than the traditional LR model in terms of discrimination. The calibration performance of both models was good.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoqi Hu
- Department of Nursing, Yantian District People's Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
| | - Xiaolin Hu
- School of Basic Medical Sciences, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Ya Yu
- Department of Nursing, Guangzhou First People's Hospital, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
| | - Jia Wang
- Department of Nursing, Shenzhen Hospital of Southern Medical University, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
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Huang J, Yeung AM, Armstrong DG, Battarbee AN, Cuadros J, Espinoza JC, Kleinberg S, Mathioudakis N, Swerdlow MA, Klonoff DC. Artificial Intelligence for Predicting and Diagnosing Complications of Diabetes. J Diabetes Sci Technol 2023; 17:224-238. [PMID: 36121302 PMCID: PMC9846408 DOI: 10.1177/19322968221124583] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Artificial intelligence can use real-world data to create models capable of making predictions and medical diagnosis for diabetes and its complications. The aim of this commentary article is to provide a general perspective and present recent advances on how artificial intelligence can be applied to improve the prediction and diagnosis of six significant complications of diabetes including (1) gestational diabetes, (2) hypoglycemia in the hospital, (3) diabetic retinopathy, (4) diabetic foot ulcers, (5) diabetic peripheral neuropathy, and (6) diabetic nephropathy.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - David G. Armstrong
- Keck School of Medicine, University of
Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Ashley N. Battarbee
- Center for Women’s Reproductive Health,
The University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA
| | - Jorge Cuadros
- Meredith Morgan Optometric Eye Center,
University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Juan C. Espinoza
- Children’s Hospital Los Angeles,
University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | | | | | - Mark A. Swerdlow
- Keck School of Medicine, University of
Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - David C. Klonoff
- Diabetes Technology Society,
Burlingame, CA, USA
- Diabetes Research Institute,
Mills-Peninsula Medical Center, San Mateo, CA, USA
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Afsaneh E, Sharifdini A, Ghazzaghi H, Ghobadi MZ. Recent applications of machine learning and deep learning models in the prediction, diagnosis, and management of diabetes: a comprehensive review. Diabetol Metab Syndr 2022; 14:196. [PMID: 36572938 PMCID: PMC9793536 DOI: 10.1186/s13098-022-00969-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2022] [Accepted: 12/16/2022] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Diabetes as a metabolic illness can be characterized by increased amounts of blood glucose. This abnormal increase can lead to critical detriment to the other organs such as the kidneys, eyes, heart, nerves, and blood vessels. Therefore, its prediction, prognosis, and management are essential to prevent harmful effects and also recommend more useful treatments. For these goals, machine learning algorithms have found considerable attention and have been developed successfully. This review surveys the recently proposed machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models for the objectives mentioned earlier. The reported results disclose that the ML and DL algorithms are promising approaches for controlling blood glucose and diabetes. However, they should be improved and employed in large datasets to affirm their applicability.
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10
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Wei Y, He A, Tang C, Liu H, Li L, Yang X, Wang X, Shen F, Liu J, Li J, Li R. Risk prediction models of gestational diabetes mellitus before 16 gestational weeks. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth 2022; 22:889. [PMID: 36456970 PMCID: PMC9714187 DOI: 10.1186/s12884-022-05219-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2022] [Accepted: 11/15/2022] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) can lead to adverse maternal and fetal outcomes, and early prevention is particularly important for their health, but there is no widely accepted approach to predict it in the early pregnancy. The aim of the present study is to build and evaluate predictive models for GDM using routine indexes, including maternal clinical characteristics and laboratory biomarkers, before 16 gestational weeks. METHODS A total of 2895 pregnant women were recruited and maternal clinical characteristics and laboratory biomarkers before 16 weeks of gestation were collected from two hospitals. All participants were randomly stratified into the training cohort and the internal validation cohort by the ratio of 7:3. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, two nomogram models, including a basic model and an extended model, were built. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical validity were used to evaluate the models in the internal validation cohort. RESULTS The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the basic and the extended model was 0.736 and 0.756 in the training cohort, and was 0.736 and 0.763 in the validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curve analysis showed that the predicted values of the two models were not significantly different from the actual observations (p = 0.289 and 0.636 in the training cohort, p = 0.684 and 0.635 in the internal validation cohort, respectively). The decision-curve analysis showed a good clinical application value of the models. CONCLUSIONS The present study built simple and effective models, indicating that routine clinical and laboratory parameters can be used to predict the risk of GDM in the early pregnancy, and providing a novel reference for studying the prediction of GDM.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yiling Wei
- grid.412601.00000 0004 1760 3828Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510630 China
| | - Andong He
- grid.412601.00000 0004 1760 3828Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510630 China
| | - Chaoping Tang
- grid.417009.b0000 0004 1758 4591Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 510150 China
| | - Haixia Liu
- grid.412601.00000 0004 1760 3828Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510630 China
| | - Ling Li
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Jiangmen Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital, Jiangmen, 529000 China
| | - Xiaofeng Yang
- grid.412601.00000 0004 1760 3828Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510630 China
| | - Xiufang Wang
- grid.412601.00000 0004 1760 3828Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510630 China
| | - Fei Shen
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Jiangmen Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital, Jiangmen, 529000 China
| | - Jia Liu
- grid.412601.00000 0004 1760 3828Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510630 China
| | - Jing Li
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Jiangmen Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital, Jiangmen, 529000 China
| | - Ruiman Li
- grid.412601.00000 0004 1760 3828Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510630 China
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11
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Cardiovascular Disease-Associated MicroRNAs as Novel Biomarkers of First-Trimester Screening for Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in the Absence of Other Pregnancy-Related Complications. Int J Mol Sci 2022; 23:ijms231810635. [PMID: 36142536 PMCID: PMC9501303 DOI: 10.3390/ijms231810635] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2022] [Revised: 09/08/2022] [Accepted: 09/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
We assessed the diagnostic potential of cardiovascular disease-associated microRNAs for the early prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in singleton pregnancies of Caucasian descent in the absence of other pregnancy-related complications. Whole peripheral venous blood samples were collected within 10 to 13 weeks of gestation. This retrospective study involved all pregnancies diagnosed with only GDM (n = 121) and 80 normal term pregnancies selected with regard to equality of sample storage time. Gene expression of 29 microRNAs was assessed using real-time RT-PCR. Upregulation of 11 microRNAs (miR-1-3p, miR-20a-5p, miR-20b-5p, miR-23a-3p, miR-100-5p, miR-125b-5p, miR-126-3p, miR-181a-5p, miR-195-5p, miR-499a-5p, and miR-574-3p) was observed in pregnancies destinated to develop GDM. Combined screening of all 11 dysregulated microRNAs showed the highest accuracy for the early identification of pregnancies destinated to develop GDM. This screening identified 47.93% of GDM pregnancies at a 10.0% false positive rate (FPR). The predictive model for GDM based on aberrant microRNA expression profile was further improved via the implementation of clinical characteristics (maternal age and BMI at early stages of gestation and an infertility treatment by assisted reproductive technology). Following this, 69.17% of GDM pregnancies were identified at a 10.0% FPR. The effective prediction model specifically for severe GDM requiring administration of therapy involved using a combination of these three clinical characteristics and three microRNA biomarkers (miR-20a-5p, miR-20b-5p, and miR-195-5p). This model identified 78.95% of cases at a 10.0% FPR. The effective prediction model for GDM managed by diet only required the involvement of these three clinical characteristics and eight microRNA biomarkers (miR-1-3p, miR-20a-5p, miR-20b-5p, miR-100-5p, miR-125b-5p, miR-195-5p, miR-499a-5p, and miR-574-3p). With this, the model identified 50.50% of GDM pregnancies managed by diet only at a 10.0% FPR. When other clinical variables such as history of miscarriage, the presence of trombophilic gene mutations, positive first-trimester screening for preeclampsia and/or fetal growth restriction by the Fetal Medicine Foundation algorithm, and family history of diabetes mellitus in first-degree relatives were included in the GDM prediction model, the predictive power was further increased at a 10.0% FPR (72.50% GDM in total, 89.47% GDM requiring therapy, and 56.44% GDM managed by diet only). Cardiovascular disease-associated microRNAs represent promising early biomarkers to be implemented into routine first-trimester screening programs with a very good predictive potential for GDM.
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12
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Kumar M, Ang LT, Png H, Ng M, Tan K, Loy SL, Tan KH, Chan JKY, Godfrey KM, Chan SY, Chong YS, Eriksson JG, Feng M, Karnani N. Automated Machine Learning (AutoML)-Derived Preconception Predictive Risk Model to Guide Early Intervention for Gestational Diabetes Mellitus. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:6792. [PMID: 35682375 PMCID: PMC9180245 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19116792] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2022] [Revised: 05/23/2022] [Accepted: 05/30/2022] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
The increasing prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is contributing to the rising global burden of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and intergenerational cycle of chronic metabolic disorders. Primary lifestyle interventions to manage GDM, including second trimester dietary and exercise guidance, have met with limited success due to late implementation, poor adherence and generic guidelines. In this study, we aimed to build a preconception-based GDM predictor to enable early intervention. We also assessed the associations of top predictors with GDM and adverse birth outcomes. Our evolutionary algorithm-based automated machine learning (AutoML) model was implemented with data from 222 Asian multi-ethnic women in a preconception cohort study, Singapore Preconception Study of Long-Term Maternal and Child Outcomes (S-PRESTO). A stacked ensemble model with a gradient boosting classifier and linear support vector machine classifier (stochastic gradient descent training) was derived using genetic programming, achieving an excellent AUC of 0.93 based on four features (glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), mean arterial blood pressure, fasting insulin, triglycerides/HDL ratio). The results of multivariate logistic regression model showed that each 1 mmol/mol increase in preconception HbA1c was positively associated with increased risks of GDM (p = 0.001, odds ratio (95% CI) 1.34 (1.13-1.60)) and preterm birth (p = 0.011, odds ratio 1.63 (1.12-2.38)). Optimal control of preconception HbA1c may aid in preventing GDM and reducing the incidence of preterm birth. Our trained predictor has been deployed as a web application that can be easily employed in GDM intervention programs, prior to conception.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mukkesh Kumar
- Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore 138632, Singapore; (M.K.); (L.T.A.); (H.P.); (M.N.); (K.T.); (S.-y.C.); (Y.S.C.); (J.G.E.)
- Bioinformatics Institute, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore 138632, Singapore
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, National University Health System, Singapore 119077, Singapore
| | - Li Ting Ang
- Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore 138632, Singapore; (M.K.); (L.T.A.); (H.P.); (M.N.); (K.T.); (S.-y.C.); (Y.S.C.); (J.G.E.)
- Bioinformatics Institute, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore 138632, Singapore
| | - Hang Png
- Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore 138632, Singapore; (M.K.); (L.T.A.); (H.P.); (M.N.); (K.T.); (S.-y.C.); (Y.S.C.); (J.G.E.)
- Bioinformatics Institute, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore 138632, Singapore
| | - Maisie Ng
- Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore 138632, Singapore; (M.K.); (L.T.A.); (H.P.); (M.N.); (K.T.); (S.-y.C.); (Y.S.C.); (J.G.E.)
- Bioinformatics Institute, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore 138632, Singapore
| | - Karen Tan
- Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore 138632, Singapore; (M.K.); (L.T.A.); (H.P.); (M.N.); (K.T.); (S.-y.C.); (Y.S.C.); (J.G.E.)
| | - See Ling Loy
- Obstetrics & Gynaecology Academic Clinical Programme, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore 169857, Singapore; (S.L.L.); (K.H.T.); (J.K.Y.C.)
- Department of Reproductive Medicine, KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital, Singapore 229899, Singapore
| | - Kok Hian Tan
- Obstetrics & Gynaecology Academic Clinical Programme, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore 169857, Singapore; (S.L.L.); (K.H.T.); (J.K.Y.C.)
- Division of Obstetrics and Gynecology, KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital, Singapore 229899, Singapore
| | - Jerry Kok Yen Chan
- Obstetrics & Gynaecology Academic Clinical Programme, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore 169857, Singapore; (S.L.L.); (K.H.T.); (J.K.Y.C.)
- Department of Reproductive Medicine, KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital, Singapore 229899, Singapore
- Cancer and Stem Cell Biology, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore 169857, Singapore
- Human Potential Translational Research Programme, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119077, Singapore
| | - Keith M. Godfrey
- MRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, NIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre, University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK;
| | - Shiao-yng Chan
- Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore 138632, Singapore; (M.K.); (L.T.A.); (H.P.); (M.N.); (K.T.); (S.-y.C.); (Y.S.C.); (J.G.E.)
- Human Potential Translational Research Programme, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119077, Singapore
| | - Yap Seng Chong
- Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore 138632, Singapore; (M.K.); (L.T.A.); (H.P.); (M.N.); (K.T.); (S.-y.C.); (Y.S.C.); (J.G.E.)
- Human Potential Translational Research Programme, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119077, Singapore
| | - Johan G. Eriksson
- Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore 138632, Singapore; (M.K.); (L.T.A.); (H.P.); (M.N.); (K.T.); (S.-y.C.); (Y.S.C.); (J.G.E.)
- Human Potential Translational Research Programme, Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119077, Singapore
- Department of General Practice and Primary Health Care, University of Helsinki, 00100 Helsinki, Finland
- Folkhälsan Research Center, 00250 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Mengling Feng
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, National University Health System, Singapore 119077, Singapore
- Institute of Data Science, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119077, Singapore
| | - Neerja Karnani
- Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore 138632, Singapore; (M.K.); (L.T.A.); (H.P.); (M.N.); (K.T.); (S.-y.C.); (Y.S.C.); (J.G.E.)
- Bioinformatics Institute, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore 138632, Singapore
- Department of Biochemistry, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119077, Singapore
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13
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Tian J, Song X, Wang Y, Cheng M, Lu S, Xu W, Gao G, Sun L, Tang Z, Wang M, Zhang X. Regulatory perspectives of combination products. Bioact Mater 2022; 10:492-503. [PMID: 34901562 PMCID: PMC8637005 DOI: 10.1016/j.bioactmat.2021.09.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2021] [Revised: 09/02/2021] [Accepted: 09/02/2021] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Combination products with a wide range of clinical applications represent a unique class of medical products that are composed of more than a singular medical device or drug/biological product. The product research and development, clinical translation as well as regulatory evaluation of combination products are complex and challenging. This review firstly introduced the origin, definition and designation of combination products. Key areas of systematic regulatory review on the safety and efficacy of device-led/supervised combination products were then presented. Preclinical and clinical evaluation of combination products was discussed. Lastly, the research prospect of regulatory science for combination products was described. New tools of computational modeling and simulation, novel technologies such as artificial intelligence, needs of developing new standards, evidence-based research methods, new approaches including the designation of innovative or breakthrough medical products have been developed and could be used to assess the safety, efficacy, quality and performance of combination products. Taken together, the fast development of combination products with great potentials in healthcare provides new opportunities for the advancement of regulatory review as well as regulatory science.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiaxin Tian
- Center for Medical Device Evaluation, National Medical Products Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Xu Song
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Quality Research and Control of Tissue Regenerative Biomaterial & Institute of Regulatory Science for Medical Devices & NMPA Research Base of Regulatory Science for Medical Devices, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- National Engineering Research Center for Biomaterials & College of Biomedical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Yongqing Wang
- Center for Medical Device Evaluation, National Medical Products Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Maobo Cheng
- Center for Medical Device Evaluation, National Medical Products Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Shuang Lu
- Center for Drug Evaluation, National Medical Products Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Wei Xu
- Center for Medical Device Evaluation, National Medical Products Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Guobiao Gao
- Center for Medical Device Evaluation, National Medical Products Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Lei Sun
- Center for Medical Device Evaluation, National Medical Products Administration, Beijing, China
| | - Zhonglan Tang
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Quality Research and Control of Tissue Regenerative Biomaterial & Institute of Regulatory Science for Medical Devices & NMPA Research Base of Regulatory Science for Medical Devices, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- National Engineering Research Center for Biomaterials & College of Biomedical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Minghui Wang
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Quality Research and Control of Tissue Regenerative Biomaterial & Institute of Regulatory Science for Medical Devices & NMPA Research Base of Regulatory Science for Medical Devices, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- National Engineering Research Center for Biomaterials & College of Biomedical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Xingdong Zhang
- NMPA Key Laboratory for Quality Research and Control of Tissue Regenerative Biomaterial & Institute of Regulatory Science for Medical Devices & NMPA Research Base of Regulatory Science for Medical Devices, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- National Engineering Research Center for Biomaterials & College of Biomedical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
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14
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An explainable machine learning-based clinical decision support system for prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus. Sci Rep 2022; 12:1170. [PMID: 35064173 PMCID: PMC8782851 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-05112-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2021] [Accepted: 01/06/2022] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Gestational Diabetes Mellitus (GDM), a common pregnancy complication associated with many maternal and neonatal consequences, is increased in mothers with overweight and obesity. Interventions initiated early in pregnancy can reduce the rate of GDM in these women, however, untargeted interventions can be costly and time-consuming. We have developed an explainable machine learning-based clinical decision support system (CDSS) to identify at-risk women in need of targeted pregnancy intervention. Maternal characteristics and blood biomarkers at baseline from the PEARS study were used. After appropriate data preparation, synthetic minority oversampling technique and feature selection, five machine learning algorithms were applied with five-fold cross-validated grid search optimising the balanced accuracy. Our models were explained with Shapley additive explanations to increase the trustworthiness and acceptability of the system. We developed multiple models for different use cases: theoretical (AUC-PR 0.485, AUC-ROC 0.792), GDM screening during a normal antenatal visit (AUC-PR 0.208, AUC-ROC 0.659), and remote GDM risk assessment (AUC-PR 0.199, AUC-ROC 0.656). Our models have been implemented as a web server that is publicly available for academic use. Our explainable CDSS demonstrates the potential to assist clinicians in screening at risk patients who may benefit from early pregnancy GDM prevention strategies.
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15
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Wang J, Lv B, Chen X, Pan Y, Chen K, Zhang Y, Li Q, Wei L, Liu Y. An early model to predict the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus in the absence of blood examination indexes: application in primary health care centres. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth 2021; 21:814. [PMID: 34879850 PMCID: PMC8653559 DOI: 10.1186/s12884-021-04295-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2021] [Accepted: 11/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is one of the critical causes of adverse perinatal outcomes. A reliable estimate of GDM in early pregnancy would facilitate intervention plans for maternal and infant health care to prevent the risk of adverse perinatal outcomes. This study aims to build an early model to predict GDM in the first trimester for the primary health care centre. Methods Characteristics of pregnant women in the first trimester were collected from eastern China from 2017 to 2019. The univariate analysis was performed using SPSS 23.0 statistical software. Characteristics comparison was applied with Mann-Whitney U test for continuous variables and chi-square test for categorical variables. All analyses were two-sided with p < 0.05 indicating statistical significance. The train_test_split function in Python was used to split the data set into 70% for training and 30% for test. The Random Forest model and Logistic Regression model in Python were applied to model the training data set. The 10-fold cross-validation was used to assess the model’s performance by the areas under the ROC Curve, diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Results A total of 1,139 pregnant women (186 with GDM) were included in the final data analysis. Significant differences were observed in age (Z=−2.693, p=0.007), pre-pregnancy BMI (Z=−5.502, p<0.001), abdomen circumference in the first trimester (Z=−6.069, p<0.001), gravidity (Z=−3.210, p=0.001), PCOS (χ2=101.024, p<0.001), irregular menstruation (χ2=6.578, p=0.010), and family history of diabetes (χ2=15.266, p<0.001) between participants with GDM or without GDM. The Random Forest model achieved a higher AUC than the Logistic Regression model (0.777±0.034 vs 0.755±0.032), and had a better discrimination ability of GDM from Non-GDMs (Sensitivity: 0.651±0.087 vs 0.683±0.084, Specificity: 0.813±0.075 vs 0.736±0.087). Conclusions This research developed a simple model to predict the risk of GDM using machine learning algorithm based on pre-pregnancy BMI, abdomen circumference in the first trimester, age, PCOS, gravidity, irregular menstruation, and family history of diabetes. The model was easy in operation, and all predictors were easily obtained in the first trimester in primary health care centres.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingyuan Wang
- Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China
| | - Bohan Lv
- School of Nursing, Qingdao University, Qingdao, China
| | - Xiujuan Chen
- Department of Nursing, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, #16 Jiangsu Road, Qingdao, 266003, Shandong Province, China
| | - Yueshuai Pan
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China
| | - Kai Chen
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China
| | - Yan Zhang
- Department of Nursing, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, #16 Jiangsu Road, Qingdao, 266003, Shandong Province, China
| | - Qianqian Li
- Department of Nursing, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, #16 Jiangsu Road, Qingdao, 266003, Shandong Province, China
| | - Lili Wei
- Department of Nursing, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, #16 Jiangsu Road, Qingdao, 266003, Shandong Province, China.
| | - Yan Liu
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China
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16
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Lee SM, Hwangbo S, Norwitz ER, Koo JN, Oh IH, Choi ES, Jung YM, Kim SM, Kim BJ, Kim SY, Kim GM, Kim W, Joo SK, Shin S, Park CW, Park T, Park JS. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and early prediction of gestational diabetes using machine learning methods. Clin Mol Hepatol 2021; 28:105-116. [PMID: 34649307 PMCID: PMC8755469 DOI: 10.3350/cmh.2021.0174] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2021] [Accepted: 10/14/2021] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
Background/Aims To develop an early prediction model for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) using machine learning and to evaluate whether the inclusion of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-associated variables increases the performance of model. Methods This prospective cohort study evaluated pregnant women for NAFLD using ultrasound at 10–14 weeks and screened them for GDM at 24–28 weeks of gestation. The clinical variables before 14 weeks were used to develop prediction models for GDM (setting 1, conventional risk factors; setting 2, addition of new risk factors in recent guidelines; setting 3, addition of routine clinical variables; setting 4, addition of NALFD-associated variables, including the presence of NAFLD and laboratory results; and setting 5, top 11 variables identified from a stepwise variable selection method). The predictive models were constructed using machine learning methods, including logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, and deep neural networks. Results Among 1,443 women, 86 (6.0%) were diagnosed with GDM. The highest performing prediction model among settings 1–4 was setting 4, which included both clinical and NAFLD-associated variables (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.563–0.697 in settings 1–3 vs. 0.740–0.781 in setting 4). Setting 5, with top 11 variables (which included NAFLD and hepatic steatosis index), showed similar predictive power to setting 4 (AUC 0.719–0.819 in setting 5, P=not significant between settings 4 and 5). Conclusions We developed an early prediction model for GDM using machine learning. The inclusion of NAFLD-associated variables significantly improved the performance of GDM prediction. (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02276144)
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Affiliation(s)
- Seung Mi Lee
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.,Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Korea
| | - Suhyun Hwangbo
- Interdisciplinary Program in Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
| | - Errol R Norwitz
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, U.S.A
| | | | | | - Eun Saem Choi
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Korea
| | - Young Mi Jung
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.,Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Korea
| | - Sun Min Kim
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.,Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul Metropolitan Government Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, Seoul, Korea
| | - Byoung Jae Kim
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.,Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul Metropolitan Government Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, Seoul, Korea
| | - Sang Youn Kim
- Department of Radiology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Gyoung Min Kim
- Department of Radiology, Yeonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Won Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.,Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul Metropolitan Government Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, Seoul, Korea
| | - Sae Kyung Joo
- Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.,Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul Metropolitan Government Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, Seoul, Korea
| | - Sue Shin
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.,Department of Laboratory Medicine, Seoul Metropolitan Government Seoul National University Boramae Medical Center, Seoul, Korea
| | - Chan-Wook Park
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.,Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Korea
| | - Taesung Park
- Interdisciplinary Program in Bioinformatics, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea.,Department of Statistics, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea
| | - Joong Shin Park
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.,Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Korea
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17
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Zhang Z, Yang L, Han W, Wu Y, Zhang L, Gao C, Jiang K, Liu Y, Wu H. Machine Learning Prediction Models for Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: A meta- analysis (Preprint). J Med Internet Res 2020; 24:e26634. [PMID: 35294369 PMCID: PMC8968560 DOI: 10.2196/26634] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2020] [Revised: 03/11/2021] [Accepted: 12/10/2021] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a common endocrine metabolic disease, involving a carbohydrate intolerance of variable severity during pregnancy. The incidence of GDM-related complications and adverse pregnancy outcomes has declined, in part, due to early screening. Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly used to identify risk factors and enable the early prediction of GDM. Objective The aim of this study was to perform a meta-analysis and comparison of published prognostic models for predicting the risk of GDM and identify predictors applicable to the models. Methods Four reliable electronic databases were searched for studies that developed ML prediction models for GDM in the general population instead of among high-risk groups only. The novel Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was used to assess the risk of bias of the ML models. The Meta-DiSc software program (version 1.4) was used to perform the meta-analysis and determination of heterogeneity. To limit the influence of heterogeneity, we also performed sensitivity analyses, a meta-regression, and subgroup analysis. Results A total of 25 studies that included women older than 18 years without a history of vital disease were analyzed. The pooled area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for ML models predicting GDM was 0.8492; the pooled sensitivity was 0.69 (95% CI 0.68-0.69; P<.001; I2=99.6%) and the pooled specificity was 0.75 (95% CI 0.75-0.75; P<.001; I2=100%). As one of the most commonly employed ML methods, logistic regression achieved an overall pooled AUROC of 0.8151, while non–logistic regression models performed better, with an overall pooled AUROC of 0.8891. Additionally, maternal age, family history of diabetes, BMI, and fasting blood glucose were the four most commonly used features of models established by the various feature selection methods. Conclusions Compared to current screening strategies, ML methods are attractive for predicting GDM. To expand their use, the importance of quality assessments and unified diagnostic criteria should be further emphasized.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zheqing Zhang
- Department of Medical Informatics, Medical School of Nantong University, Nantong, China
| | - Luqian Yang
- Department of Medical Informatics, Medical School of Nantong University, Nantong, China
| | - Wentao Han
- Department of Medical Informatics, Medical School of Nantong University, Nantong, China
| | - Yaoyu Wu
- Department of Medical Informatics, Medical School of Nantong University, Nantong, China
| | - Linhui Zhang
- Department of Medical Informatics, Medical School of Nantong University, Nantong, China
| | - Chun Gao
- Department of Medical Informatics, Medical School of Nantong University, Nantong, China
| | - Kui Jiang
- Department of Medical Informatics, Medical School of Nantong University, Nantong, China
| | - Yun Liu
- Department of Information, The First Affiliated Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
- Department of Medical Informatics, School of Biomedical Engineering and Informatics, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Huiqun Wu
- Department of Medical Informatics, Medical School of Nantong University, Nantong, China
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