Mortality transition over a quarter century in rural South Africa: findings from population surveillance in Agincourt 1993-2018

Temporal changes in cause of death among adolescents and adults in six countries in eastern and southern Africa in 1995-2019: a multi-country surveillance study of verbal autopsy data

BACKGROUND

The absence of high-quality comprehensive civil registration and vital statistics systems across many settings in Africa has led to little empirical data on causes of death in the region. We aimed to use verbal autopsy data to provide comparative, population-based estimates of cause-specific mortality among adolescents and adults in eastern and southern Africa.

METHODS

In this surveillance study, we harmonised verbal autopsy and residency data from nine health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) sites in Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, each with variable coverage from Jan 1, 1995, to Dec 31, 2019. We included all deaths to adolescents and adults aged 12 or over that were residents of the study sites and had a verbal autopsy conducted. InSilicoVA, a probabilistic model, was used to assign cause of death on the basis of the signs and symptoms reported in the verbal autopsy. Levels and trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates and cause-specific mortality fractions were calculated, stratified by HDSS site, sex, age, and calendar periods.

FINDINGS

52 484 deaths and 5 157 802 person-years were reported among 1 071 913 individuals across the nine sites during the study period. 47 961 (91·4%) deaths had a verbal autopsy, of which 46 570 (97·1%) were assigned a cause of death. All-cause mortality generally decreased across the HDSS sites during this period, particularly for adults aged 20-59 years. In many of the HDSS sites, these decreases were driven by reductions in HIV and tuberculosis-related deaths. In 2010-14, the top causes of death were: road traffic accidents, HIV or tuberculosis, and meningitis or sepsis in adolescents (12-19 years); HIV or tuberculosis in adults aged 20-59 years; and neoplasms and cardiovascular disease in adults aged 60 years and older. There was greater between-HDSS and between-sex variation in causes of death for adolescents compared with adults.

INTERPRETATION

This study shows progress in reducing mortality across eastern and southern Africa but also highlights age, sex, within-HDSS, and between-HDSS differences in causes of adolescent and adult deaths. These findings highlight the importance of detailed local data to inform health needs to ensure continued improvements in survival.

FUNDING

National Institute of Child Health and Human Development of the US National Institutes of Health.

Mortality variability and differentials by age and causes of death in rural South Africa, 1994-2018

INTRODUCTION

Understanding mortality variability by age and cause is critical to identifying intervention and prevention actions to support disadvantaged populations. We assessed mortality changes in two rural South African populations over 25 years covering pre-AIDS and peak AIDS epidemic and subsequent antiretroviral therapy (ART) availability.

METHODS

Using population surveillance data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS; 1994-2018) and Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI; 2000-2018) for 5-year periods, we calculated life expectancy from birth to age 85, mortality age distributions and variation, and life-years lost (LYL) decomposed into four cause-of-death groups.

RESULTS

The AIDS epidemic shifted the age-at-death distribution to younger ages and increased LYL. For AHDSS, between 1994-1998 and 1999-2003 LYL increased for females from 13.6 years (95% CI 12.7 to 14.4) to 22.1 (95% CI 21.2 to 23.0) and for males from 19.9 (95% CI 18.8 to 20.8) to 27.1 (95% CI 26.2 to 28.0). AHRI LYL in 2000-2003 was extremely high (females=40.7 years (95% CI 39.8 to 41.5), males=44.8 years (95% CI 44.1 to 45.5)). Subsequent widespread ART availability reduced LYL (2014-2018) for women (AHDSS=15.7 (95% CI 15.0 to 16.3); AHRI=22.4 (95% CI 21.7 to 23.1)) and men (AHDSS=21.2 (95% CI 20.5 to 22.0); AHRI=27.4 (95% CI 26.7 to 28.2)), primarily due to reduced HIV/AIDS/TB deaths in mid-life and other communicable disease deaths in children. External causes increased as a proportion of LYL for men (2014-2018: AHRI=25%, AHDSS=17%). The share of AHDSS LYL 2014-2018 due to non-communicable diseases exceeded pre-HIV levels: females=43%; males=40%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight shifting burdens in cause-specific LYL and persistent mortality differentials in two populations experiencing complex epidemiological transitions. Results show high contributions of child deaths to LYL at the height of the AIDS epidemic. Reductions in LYL were primarily driven by lowered HIV/AIDS/TB and other communicable disease mortality during the ART periods. LYL differentials persist despite widespread ART availability, highlighting the contributions of other communicable diseases in children, HIV/AIDS/TB and external causes in mid-life and non-communicable diseases in older ages.

Moving towards social inclusion: Engaging rural voices in priority setting for health

BACKGROUND

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) in the context of limited resources will require prioritising the most vulnerable and ensuring health policies and services are responsive to their needs. One way of addressing this is through the engagement of marginalised voices in the priority setting process. Public engagement approaches that enable group level deliberation as well as individual level preference capturing might be valuable in this regard, but there are limited examples of their practical application, and gaps in understanding their outcomes, especially with rural populations.

OBJECTIVE

To address this gap, we implemented a modified priority setting tool (Choosing All Together-CHAT) that enables individuals and groups to make trade-offs to demonstrate the type of health services packages that may be acceptable to a rural population. The paper presents the findings from the individual choices as compared to the group choices, as well as the differences among the individual choices using this tool.

METHODS

Participants worked in groups and as individuals to allocate stickers representing the available budget to different health topics and interventions using the CHAT tool. The allocations were recorded at each stage of the study. We calculated the median and interquartile range across study participants for the topic totals. To examine differences in individual choices, we performed Wilcoxon rank sum tests.

RESULTS

The results show that individual interests were mostly aligned with societal ones, and there were no statistically significant differences between the individual and group choices. However, there were some statistically significant differences between individual priorities based on demographic characteristics like age.

DISCUSSION

The study demonstrates that giving individuals greater control and agency in designing health services packages can increase their participation in the priority setting process, align individual and community priorities, and potentially enhance the legitimacy and acceptability of priority setting. Methods that enable group level deliberation and individual level priority setting may be necessary to reconcile plurality. The paper also highlights the importance of capturing the details of public engagement processes and transparently reporting on these details to ensure valuable outcomes.

PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

The facilitator of the CHAT groups was a member from the community and underwent training from the research team. The fieldworkers were also from the community and were trained and paid to capture the data. The participants were all members of the rural community- the study represents their priorities.

Understanding Household Dynamics From the Ground Up: A Longitudinal Study From a Rural South African Setting

Investigations into household structure in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) provide important insight into how families manage domestic life in response to resource allocation and caregiving needs during periods of rapid sociopolitical and health-related challenges. Recent evidence on household structure in many LMICs contrasts with long-standing viewpoints of worldwide convergence to a Western nuclearized household model. Here, we adopt a household-centered theoretical and methodological framework to investigate longitudinal patterns and dynamics of household structure in a rural South African setting during a period of high AIDS-related mortality and socioeconomic change. Data come from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (2003-2015). Using latent transition models, we derived six distinct household types by examining conditional interdependency between household heads' characteristics, members' age composition, and migration status. More than half of households were characterized by their complex and multigenerational profiles, with considerable within-typology variation in household size and dependency structure. Transition analyses showed stability of household types under female headship, while higher proportions of nuclearized household types dissolved over time. Household dissolution was closely linked to prior mortality experiences-particularly, following death of a male head. Our findings highlight the need to better conceptualize and contextualize household changes across populations and over time.

The effects of HIV and systolic blood pressure on mortality risk in rural South Africa, 2010-2019: a data note

OBJECTIVES

South Africa is experiencing both HIV and hypertension epidemics. Data were compiled for a study to identify effects of HIV and high systolic blood pressure on mortality risk among people aged 40-plus in a rural South African area experiencing high prevalence of both conditions. We aim to release the replication data set for this study.

DATA DESCRIPTION

The research data comes from the 2010-11 Ha Nakekela (We Care) population-based survey nested in the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS) located in the northeast region of South Africa. An age-sex-stratified probability sample was drawn from the AHDSS. The public data set includes information on individual socioeconomic characteristics and measures of HIV status and blood pressure for participants aged 40-plus by 2019. The AHDSS, through its annual surveillance, provided mortality data for nine years subsequent to the survey. These data were converted to person-year observations and linked to the individual-level survey data using participants' AHDSS census identifier. The data can be used to replicate Houle et al. (2022) - which used discrete-time event history models stratified by sex to assess differential mortality risks according to Ha Nakekela measures of HIV-infection, HIV-1 RNA viral load, and systolic blood pressure.

Realising radical potential: building community power in primary health care through Participatory Action Research

BACKGROUND

While community participation is an established pro-equity approach in Primary Health Care (PHC), it can take many forms, and the central category of power is under-theorised. The objectives were to (a) conduct theory-informed analysis of community power-building in PHC in a setting of structural deprivation and (b) develop practical guidance to support participation as a sustainable PHC component.

METHODS

Stakeholders representing rural communities, government departments and non-governmental organisations engaged through a participatory action research (PAR) process in a rural sub-district in South Africa. Three reiterative cycles of evidence generation, analysis, action, and reflection were progressed. Local health concerns were raised and framed by community stakeholders, who generated new data and evidence with researchers. Dialogue was then initiated between communities and the authorities, with local action plans coproduced, implemented, and monitored. Throughout, efforts were made to shift and share power, and to adapt the process to improve practical, local relevance. We analysed participant and researcher reflections, project documents, and other project data using power-building and power-limiting frameworks.

RESULTS

Co-constructing evidence among community stakeholders in safe spaces for dialogue and cooperative action-learning built collective capabilities. The authorities embraced the platform as a space to safely engage with communities and the process was taken up in the district health system. Responding to COVID-19, the process was collectively re-designed to include a training package for community health workers (CHWs) in rapid PAR. New skills and competencies, new community and facility-based alliances and explicit recognition of CHW roles, value, and contribution at higher levels of the system were reported following the adaptations. The process was subsequently scaled across the sub-district.

CONCLUSIONS

Community power-building in rural PHC was multidimensional, non-linear, and deeply relational. Collective mindsets and capabilities for joint action and learning were built through a pragmatic, cooperative, adaptive process, creating spaces where people could produce and use evidence to make decisions. Impacts were seen in demand for implementation outside the study setting. We offer a practice framework to expand community power in PHC: (1) prioritising community capability-building, (2) navigating social and institutional contexts, and (3) developing and sustaining authentic learning spaces.

Household structure, composition and child mortality in the unfolding antiretroviral therapy era in rural South Africa: comparative evidence from population surveillance, 2000-2015

OBJECTIVES

The structure and composition of the household has important influences on child mortality. However, little is known about these factors in HIV-endemic areas and how associations may change with the introduction and widespread availability of antiretroviral treatment (ART). We use comparative, longitudinal data from two demographic surveillance sites in rural South Africa (2000-2015) on mortality of children younger than 5 years (n=101 105).

DESIGN

We use multilevel discrete time event history analysis to estimate children's probability of dying by their matrilineal residential arrangements. We also test if associations have changed over time with ART availability.

SETTING

Rural South Africa.

PARTICIPANTS

Children younger than 5 years (n=101 105).

RESULTS

3603 children died between 2000 and 2015. Mortality risks differed by co-residence patterns along with different types of kin present in the household. Children in nuclear households with both parents had the lowest risk of dying compared with all other household types. Associations with kin and child mortality were moderated by parental status. Having older siblings lowered the probability of dying only for children in a household with both parents (relative risk ratio (RRR)=0.736, 95% CI (0.633 to 0.855)). Only in the later ART period was there evidence that older adult kin lowered the probability of dying for children in single parent households (RRR=0.753, 95% CI (0.664 to 0.853)).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide comparative evidence of how differential household profiles may place children at higher mortality risk. Formative research is needed to understand the role of other household kin in promoting child well-being, particularly in one-parent households that are increasingly prevalent.

Individual and area-level socioeconomic correlates of hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control in uMgungundlovu, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is the second leading risk factor for death in South Africa, and rates have steadily increased since the end of Apartheid. Research on the determinants of hypertension in South Africa has received considerable attention due to South Africa's rapid urbanization and epidemiological transition. However, scant work has been conducted to investigate how various segments of the Black South African population experience this transition. Identifying the correlates of hypertension in this population is critical to the development of policies and targeted interventions to strengthen equitable public health efforts.

METHODS

This analysis explores the relationship between individual and area-level socioeconomic status and hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control within a sample of 7,303 Black South Africans in three municipalities of the uMgungundlovu district in KwaZulu-Natal province: the Msunduzi, uMshwathi, and Mkhambathini. Cross-sectional data were collected on participants from February 2017 to February 2018. Individual-level socioeconomic status was measured by employment status and educational attainment. Ward-level area deprivation was operationalized by the most recent (2011 and 2001) South African Multidimensional Poverty Index scores. Covariates included age, sex, BMI, and diabetes diagnosis.

RESULTS

The prevalence of hypertension in the sample was 44.4% (n = 3,240). Of those, 2,324 were aware of their diagnosis, 1,928 were receiving treatment, and 1,051 had their hypertension controlled. Educational attainment was negatively associated with hypertension prevalence and positively associated with its control. Employment status was negatively associated with hypertension control. Black South Africans living in more deprived wards had higher odds of being hypertensive and lower odds of having their hypertension controlled. Those residing in wards that became more deprived from 2001 to 2011 had higher odds of being aware of their hypertension, yet lower odds of receiving treatment for it.

CONCLUSIONS

Results from this study can assist policymakers and practitioners in identifying groups within the Black South African population that should be prioritized for public health interventions. Black South Africans who have and continue to face barriers to care, including those with low educational attainment or living in deprived wards had worse hypertension outcomes. Potential interventions include community-based programs that deliver medication to households, workplaces, or community centers.