THE INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT OF LOW FERTILITY

Risk Factors for Infertility in Korean Women

BACKGROUND

Female infertility is a crucial problem with significant implications for individuals and society. In this study, we explore risk factors for infertility in Korean women.

METHODS

A total of 986 female patients who visited six major infertility clinics in Korea were recruited from April to December 2014. Fertile age-matched controls were selected from two nationwide survey study participants. Conditional logistic regression after age-matching was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of each risk factor for infertility.

RESULTS

Women with a body mass index (BMI) < 18.5 kg/m² had 1.35 times higher odds of infertility (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.03-1.77), while those with a BMI ≥ 25.0 kg/m² had even higher odds (OR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.61-2.64) compared to women with a normal BMI (18.5 kg/m² ≤ BMI < 25 kg/m²). Ever-smokers exhibited 4.94 times higher odds of infertility compared to never-smokers (95% CI, 3.45-8.85). Concerning alcohol consumption, women who consumed ≥ 7 glasses at a time showed 3.13 times significantly higher odds of infertility than those who consumed ≤ 4 glasses at a time (95% CI, 1.79-5.48). Lastly, women with thyroid disease demonstrated 1.44 times higher odds of infertility compared to women without thyroid disease (95% CI, 1.00-2.08).

CONCLUSION

Female infertility in Korea was associated with underweight, obesity, smoking, alcohol consumption, and thyroid disease.

Neural substrates of marriage on self-parents processing and the association with a parents-oriented perspective shift in a collectivistic culture

Relationship with parents is a special bond that shapes self-other representations and have an impact on adult-child's marriage, especially in the early stages of marriage. This study sought to investigate the neural mechanisms underlying self-parents processing as well as their relationship with marriage. Seventy-eight premarital Korean participants were scanned in functional MRI while evaluating traits of the self and parents. Then, 21 of them returned after being married to engage in the identical task three years later. The precuneus and temporoparietal junction were identified to activate stronger for parents than self at both marital statuses. The dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, posterior cingulate cortex, parietal operculum, and caudate activated more for self than parents before marriage, but their activities changed during marriage. The activation increase of the parietal operculum between marital statuses in the parents condition was negatively correlated with the level of marital dissatisfaction, and this association only appeared among participants with a child. Self-parents processing may recruit brain regions involved in autobiographical memory and self-other distinction, and marriage has an impact on the way individuals process rewards and multimodal sensory information during this processing. Marriage may lead to changes in brain function that affect the processing of emotions toward parents and a more parents-oriented perspective shift in collectivistic societies.

Mental health and current issues of migrant workers in Japan: A cross-sectional study of Vietnamese workers

BACKGROUND

Over the past 5 years, the number of Vietnamese migrant workers in Japan has grown rapidly to become the largest group of migrant workers in the country. They hold various statuses of residence and are subjected to multifactorial stressors.

AIMS

The current study's aim is to investigate the association between psychological distress experienced by Vietnamese workers and their work environment. Another aim is to discuss issues involving migrant workers by comparing the characteristics of workers in the major statuses of residence.

METHODS

The study applied a cross-sectional design, and included a nationwide self-administered online questionnaire that was conducted in Vietnamese in 2022. The questionnaire included the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10), workplace interpersonal factors as well as factors related to work and health. A multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to investigate factors associated with psychological distress.

RESULTS

Of 933 Vietnamese workers, 37% were grouped as distressed under the K10 cutoff. Fewer opportunities to speak with Japanese co-workers, lower welfare and workload ratings, and the visa statuses including 'Technical Intern Training' were significantly associated with psychological distress. Unexpectedly, those in 'Engineer/Specialist in Humanities/International Services (ESI)' category who are deemed to hold better conditions demonstrated the highest amounts of distress.

CONCLUSION

Outside of unsatisfactory working environments, differing situations depending on status of residence could produce various sources of distress. The difficult aspects of Japan's distinct culture seem to contribute to their distress, especially for those who have more interactions with Japanese co-workers. A push for a multicultural society, where migrant workers can pursue proactive life designs of their own choosing, is warranted.

Low fertility and fertility policies in the Asia-Pacific region

Declining fertility is an increasing global trend. In many low fertility contexts, people are having fewer children then they want, and these unfulfilled fertility desires have been associated with wider socio-economic changes in education and labour force participation and conflicting and often contradictory expectations of women at home and at work. The right to determine if, when and how one has children is enshrined in international law yet many policies responses to low fertility fail to meet these standards. This paper summarizes why people in the Asia-Pacific region are having fewer children than they desire, and the range of policy responses, particularly those that make life easier for working parents. This raises two important points. First, we need to contend to the gender dynamics that underpin this in the region, despite gradual changes in women's roles, they are still seen as "caregivers" and undertake a disproportionate amount of unpaid care work, often having to lean-out of their employment, and/or face gender discrimination in the workplace. Second, the "emergency" of low fertility arises from complex social and economic conditions that cannot be solved by population policies solely focused on making babies.

Association between adverse childhood experiences and marital status among Japanese older adults

BACKGROUND

Marital status is a well-known social determinant of health. Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) affect attachment, critical to establishing and maintaining intimate relationships, such as marital status.

OBJECTIVE

This study examined the association between ACEs and marital status among older Japanese adults.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING

This research used data from a nationwide population-based study among functionally independent people aged 65 and above in Japan.

METHODS

ACEs were assessed by self-reported questionnaires on the following experiences before 18 years old: parental death, parental divorce, parental mental disease, exposure to intimate partner violence, physical abuse, psychological neglect, psychological abuse, and poverty. Marital status was asked as currently having a spouse (including common-law marriage), widowed, divorced, or unmarried. Associations between the total number of ACEs and marital status were analyzed by multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

Three or more ACEs showed higher risks of being widowed, divorced, or unmarried. Psychological neglect led to higher divorce risks among males (RRR, 95%CI = 1.41, 1.13-1.76) and females (RRR, 95%CI = 1.56, 1.28-1.89). Childhood poverty showed higher risks of unmarried among males (RRR, 95%CI = 1.25, 1.02-1.53) and females (RRR, 95%CI = 1.41, 1.18-1.69). Association between ACEs and divorce risks showed gender differences (RRR, 95%CI of having three or more ACEs in males: 2.19, 1.66-2.90; in females: 3.45, 2.71-4.38; p for interaction = 0.034).

CONCLUSIONS

ACEs showed higher risks of being widowed, divorced, and unmarried among older Japanese people. Policy to tackle ACEs and research investigating how ACEs, attachment, and relationship quality influence marital status are required to promote well-being in later life.

Love is Elsewhere: Internal Migration and Marriage Prospects in China

Migration and marriage are major life events that might interact and be jointly decided. Places with good labor market opportunities may or may not provide good marriage options. In this paper, I quantify gains and losses in marriage prospects for unmarried migrants and natives during the population redistribution driven by internal migration. I also examine how the experiences differ by individual characteristics and regional factors. The analysis measures marriage prospects using the availability ratio (AR) with adaptive assortative matching norms for every unmarried individual from sample data of the 2010 China population census. The AR quantifies the intensity of competition for suitable partners in the local marriage market. I compare (1) migrants' current AR with an alternative AR if the migrant returned to the hometown and (2) natives' AR with a hypothetical AR if all migrants returned to their hometown. The first comparison shows that among migrants moving for labor market opportunities, most women have higher ARs (better marriage prospects) in the place of residence than in their hometown, especially those of rural origin. In contrast, migrant men's ARs mostly decrease after migration except for the best educated. The second comparison reveals small negative externalities of internal migration on ARs for native women but positive impacts for some native men. The results suggest a conflict between labor market opportunities that dominate internal migration decisions and marriage market opportunities in China. This study demonstrates a method to quantify and compare marriage prospects and extends the literature on how migration and marriage interact.

Fertility Intention and Influencing Factors for Having a Second Child among Floating Women of Childbearing Age

In recent years, an increasing number of women participate in population mobility and most of them are of childbearing age. With the continuous expansion of the population size of this group, their fertility intention will have a great impact on the development of China's population. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the fertility intention and influencing factors on having a second child in floating women. This study employed the data from the 2018 National Migrants Dynamic Monitoring Survey data. A self-designed questionnaire was used to collect information, such as socio-demographics and fertility intention. Descriptive statistical analysis was carried out to obtain the basic characteristics of the main variables. Chi-square and ANOVA tests were used to analyze the differences in the basic characteristics between three groups of women (with intention, without intention and unsure about having a second child). Multinomial logistic regression was employed to analyze influencing factors associated with fertility intention among the floating women. The results of this study indicated that only 13.07% of the floating women had the intention to have a second child, while 67.73% had no intention of having another child. In the multivariate analysis, age, gender and age of the first child, reproductive health education, employment status and medical insurance were found to be significant influencing factors of fertility intention (p < 0.05), while education level and household registration type were not associated with the desire to have a second child (p > 0.05). Overall, after the implementation of the universal two-child policy, floating women of childbearing age have reduced intention to have a second child. Reproductive health education and medical insurance play an important role in ensuring the fertility of floating women. This reminds government departments to consider the above factors comprehensively when formulating the next work plan.

The relationship between changes in the korean fertility rate and policies to encourage fertility

BACKGROUND

Korean government has established various policies to counter the low fertility rate since the mid-2000s, but it still has the lowest fertility rate among OECD member countries. This study investigated the relationship between changes in the Korean fertility rate and policies to encourage fertility.

METHODS

This study utilized data of the total fertility rate of 250 local governments between 2014 and 2018, and a casebook of local government birth promotion policies. The dependent variable was fertility rate, and the independent variable was fertility promotion policy. Using SPSS 25.0 and M-plus 8.0 programs, descriptive statistical analysis and latent growth modeling were conducted. An unconditional quadratic function change model was selected as a final model of this study.

RESULTS

The average of the initial fertility rate and the linear rate of change in the Korean fertility rate, and the rate of change of the quadratic function were all statistically significant, meaning that the fertility rate of decline increases over time. Also, the linear rate of change and the quadratic function change rate were significant, showing significant differences in the initial level and rate of change of the fertility rate between local governments. Among fertility policies, only the in-kind policy had a significant effect on the initial value of the fertility rate, meaning that the higher the number of in-kind policies, the higher the fertility rate.

CONCLUSION

This study is crucial as it examined the changes in the fertility rate of Korean local governments as well as the policy factors affecting the fertility rate at a quantitative level.

Relative Economic Position and Female Marriage Migration: Marrying Men in Taiwan across Borders and Boundaries

In recent decades, Taiwan's cross-border marriages, often involving less educated and rural men, raised concerns regarding these couples' disadvantaged position and how the wives, mostly from mainland China and Southeast Asia, fared and integrated. Using data from the surveys of female marriage migrants from outside Taiwan in 2003, 2008, and 2013, along with comparable data among recently married women in Taiwan, we compare educational assortative mating among marriages between men in Taiwan and women in Taiwan, mainland China, Southeast Asia, and Hong Kong and Macau. The findings from log-linear models reveal that, over a period of fifteen years, less educated Taiwanese men have become much less likely to form cross-border marriages with women from mainland China and, to a lesser degree, Southeast Asia. We argue that against the backdrop of rapid economic development in mainland China and Southeast Asia, the advantage in spatial hypergamy for less educated Taiwanese men has declined markedly. Female migrants married in recent years are more likely to marry Taiwanese men with higher levels of education than those married in earlier years. Lack of marriage prospects among less educated men in Taiwan may become another social problem.

The Impact of Rural Population Mobility on Fertility Intention under the Comprehensive Two-Child Policy: Evidence from Rural China

Declining fertility rates pose challenges to global economic, social, cultural and political development. Low fertility rates among rural floating populations are exacerbating these challenges. However, it is not clear whether and to what extent rural population mobility (RPM) has reduced migrants' willingness to have children. At the same time, rural migration may represent a self-selection behavior (i.e., selection bias), and traditional measurement methods may be insufficient for effectively estimating the quantitative impacts of rural migration. Accordingly, the data from 1734 rural households from 28 provinces in mainland China were collected in the current study, and endogenous switching regression (ESR) models were used to correct the selection bias to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of RPM on fertility intention. The results revealed the following: (1) For rural residents who choose to move, if they chose not to move, their willingness to give birth would increase by 19.820%, their willingness to have female children would increase by 48.526%, and their willingness to have male children would drop by 26.711%. (2) For rural residents who choose not to move, if they chose to move, their willingness to give birth would drop by 55.982%, their willingness to have female children would drop by 18.294%, and their willingness to have male children would drop by 55.106%. (3) For eastern rural residents who choose to move, if they chose not to move, their willingness to give birth would decrease by 40.273%. For midwestern rural residents who choose to move, if they chose not to move, their willingness to give birth would increase by 24.786%. (4) For eastern rural residents who choose not to move, if they chose to move, their willingness to give birth would increase by 11.032%. (5) For midwestern rural residents who choose not to move, if they chose to move, their willingness to give birth would drop by 71.744%. The abovementioned findings can provide research support for other low-fertility countries or regions toward increasing fertility rates and addressing any imbalances in current gender ratios. They can also help to provide realistic strategies for alleviating the global population crisis.

Work and fertility in Taiwan: how do women's and men's career sequences associate with fertility outcomes?

There has been much debate over the micro-level relationship between employment situations and fertility in Europe and Northern America. However, related research in East Asia is scant, although countries in this region have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Moreover, most studies analyse the employment-fertility relationship from a static perspective and only for women, which underemphasises life course dynamics and gender heterogeneity of employment careers and their fertility implications. Drawing on retrospective data from the 2017 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSCS), this study explores women's and men's career trajectories between ages 18 and 40 in Taiwan using sequence cluster analyses. It also examines how career variations associate with different timing and quantum of birth. Empirical results show that economically inactive women experience faster motherhood transitions and have more children by age 40 than women with stable full-time careers. For men, having an unstable career associates with slower fatherhood transitions and a lower number of children. For both genders, self-employed people are the earliest in parenthood transitions and have the highest number of children by midlife. Our findings demonstrate sharp gender contrasts in employment careers and their diversified fertility implications in low-fertility Taiwan.

Parity-specific motherhood penalties: Long-term impacts of childbirth on women's earnings in Japan

The issue of motherhood earnings penalty has been well-documented in many Western countries. However, only a few studies discussed how earnings penalty evolves over time and varies across different parity of birth. Moreover, related research in non-Western developed countries is scant. This study contributes to the motherhood penalty literature by examining the long-term impacts (up to 10 years after childbirth) of the first and the second birth on women's employment, work hours, wage rates, and earnings in Japan. It proposes a novel research design based on the event-study approach and fixed effects regressions to quantify the dynamic effects of motherhood resulted from two consecutive birth transitions. Drawing on longitudinal data from the Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers (from 1993 to 2015), our results show that both the first and the second birth trigger short-term earnings penalties by causing a considerable employment slump upon pregnancy. In the long run, while women's employment rates recover, work hours and wage rates remain significantly lower than their pre-pregnancy level, leading to the long-term earnings penalty. More importantly, the long-term negative impacts of childbirth on labor supply and wage rates result mostly from women's first-time rather than the second-time birth transition in Japan. These findings imply that motherhood in Japan imposes long-term penalties on women's earnings, primarily by depressing maternal labor supply after their first-time motherhood transition.

Factors Associated with Subsequent Childbirth between Marriage Years in Korea

This study aimed to identify differences in factors associated with subsequent childbirth between the marriage years of 1996-2005 (Group 1) and 2006-2015 (Group 2) using the 2015 National Survey. A total of 5097 eligible participants (2492 and 2605 women in each group, respectively) were included. The main variables consisted of demographic characteristics, socio-economic status, value for child and son, and social support for raising child. For statistical analysis, discrete-time hazard models were used. The common factors associated with subsequent childbirth in both groups were son preference (Group 1: HR = 1.16; 95% CI = 1.06-1.27, Group 2: HR = 1.14; 95% CI = 1.04-1.24) and the favorable value on children (HR = 1.12; 95% CI = 1.01-1.25, HR = 1.11; 95% CI = 1.01-1.22). Only in Group 2, age at the first childbirth (HR = 1.35; 95% CI = 1.31-1.39) and more monthly income (≥4600, <6000: HR = 1.18; 95% CI = 1.04-1.33, ≥6000: HR = 1.15; 95% CI = 1.00-1.32) were significantly associated with subsequent children. Whereas, working women (HR = 0.86; 95% CI = 0.78-0.94) were less likely to have subsequent children. To increase fertility in Korea, the government must provide childcare and deal with factors associated with low fertility considering the reduction in role incomparability for women due to changes in demographic characteristics.

Family Policy Awareness and Marital Intentions: A National Survey Experimental Study

Despite extensively examining the effects of family policies on marriage and fertility rates, previous research has paid little attention to the process of policy implementation and has implicitly assumed that individuals are fully aware of the policy information when making marital and fertility decisions. Challenging this assumption, we theorize policy awareness as an important mechanism for understanding the potential influence of family policies on individuals' marital intentions, an understudied yet crucial determinant of family formation behavior. In an experiment using a national survey of young unmarried individuals in Japan, respondents were randomly assigned to treatment and control groups. The treatment group was informed about 17 Japanese family policy benefits, but most of the respondents knew none or only a few of these benefits. After exposure to the policy information, the treatment group had significantly higher marital intentions than the control group, which had similar baseline characteristics but no information exposure. Crucially, such positive effects were particularly pronounced among high-educated women and high- and low-educated men, reflecting the differentiated effects of policy awareness under Japan's traditional gender role norms. Overall, these findings highlight the pivotal role of policy awareness during the family formation process and contribute to the debate over whether and how family policies may influence different subpopulations.

Living Arrangements, Intergenerational Support, and Married Women's Subjective Well-Being

Theory suggests that relationships between intergenerational coresidence and married women's subjective well-being may be either positive or negative. We extend previous research on this question in two ways: by focusing also on geographical proximity to parents(-in-law) and by examining differences in married women's well-being both between and within different types of living arrangements. Using data from a nationally representative survey of adults in Japan, we found no differences in married women's subjective well-being between living arrangements, but observed significant differences within living arrangements depending on married women's position in the household and the direction of intergenerational support transfers. Our results suggest that comparisons across living arrangements may be complicated by within-group associations with well-being and that attention to married women's position in the household and the direction of intergenerational transfers is essential for understanding how married women in Japan experience different living arrangements.

Job characteristics, marital intentions, and partner-seeking actions: Longitudinal evidence from Japan

BACKGROUND

Most research linking jobs to marriage formation focuses on how job contexts and prospects affect singles’ paces of entering marriage. Direct evidence on whether job traits shape singles’ desire for marriage and actions toward forming a union remains scarce.

OBJECTIVE

We examine how changes in a range of job characteristics correspond to alterations in never-married people’s intention to marry and actions taken to meet romantic partners in Japan, a country with increasing inequality in job quality and declining marriage rates.

METHODS

We use longitudinal data from the Japan Life Course Panel Survey to fit fixed-effects models, which take into account unobserved heterogeneity among people with differing jobs.

RESULTS

We find that rises in job insecurity and workplace staffing shortages weaken, whereas increases in income and job autonomy strengthen, men’s intention to marry. Moreover, men with a low marriage desire are especially likely to withdraw from partner-seeking activities when they have low-income jobs or face great deadline pressure at work. Job prospects and quality are generally less important to women’s desire for marriage or partner-seeking actions. Nevertheless, being in workplaces where teamwork is prevalent, which could enhance singles’ exposure to married and older coworkers, raises both women’s intention to marry and their probability of using a formal method, such as employing a marriage agency, to find a partner.

CONCLUSIONS

For Japanese men, our results offer support for the argument that economic stagnation and deterioration of job quality are conducive to later and fewer marriages. The findings for women, however, are more consistent with the narrative focusing on values and social influences.

CONTRIBUTIONS

This study enriches our understanding of singles’ considerations of marriage and partner search and provides highly rigorous evidence on the roles of job conditions.

Latest-Late Fertility? Decline and Resurgence of Late Parenthood Across the Low-Fertility Countries

After decades of fertility postponement, we investigate recent changes in late parenthood across low-fertility countries in the light of observations from the past. We use long series of age-specific fertility rates from the Human Fertility Database (1950-2016) for women, and new data covering the period 1990-2016 for men. In 1950, the contribution of births at age 40 and over to female fertility rates ranged from 2.5 to 9 percent, but then fell sharply until the 1980s. From the 1990s, however, the prevalence of late first births increased rapidly, especially so in countries where it was initially lowest. This has produced a late fertility rebound in the last two decades, occurring much faster for women than for men. Comparisons between recent and past extremely late (age 48+) fertility levels confirm that people are now challenging the natural fertility barriers, particularly for a first child.

Trends in heterosexual inexperience among young adults in Japan: analysis of national surveys, 1987-2015

BACKGROUND

It has been suggested that an increasing number of Japanese adults remain sexually inexperienced; however, no study has assessed this issue using nationally representative data.

METHODS

We used data from seven rounds of the National Fertility Survey of Japan, 1987-2015, and included adults aged 18-39 years (18-34 years in the 1987 survey) in the analyses (sample size 11,553-17,850 [1987-2010]; response rate 70.0-92.5%). For each survey year, sex and age group, we estimated the age-adjusted prevalence of heterosexual inexperience, defined as reporting no experience of sexual intercourse with someone of the opposite sex. We used logistic regression, adjusted for age, to identify factors associated with heterosexual inexperience in the 2010 survey. Information about same-sex sexual experience was not available.

RESULTS

Between 1992 and 2015, the age-standardized prevalence of heterosexual inexperience in adults aged 18-39 years increased from 21.7 to 24.6% for women (p-values for linear and quadratic trend < 0.05) and from 20.0 to 25.8% for men (p-values for trend < 0.05). Among those aged 30-34 years, the prevalence was 6.2% in 1987 and 11.9% in 2015 for women (p-values for trend ≥0.05) and 8.8% (1987) and 12.7% (2015) for men (p-values for trend ≥0.05). Among those aged 35-39 years, prevalence increased from 4.0% in 1992 to 8.9% in 2015 among women (p-values for trend < 0.05). The corresponding numbers for men in the same age group were 5.5 and 9.5%, respectively (p-values for trend ≥0.05). Among men aged 25-39 years, unemployment, temporary/part-time employment and lower income were associated with heterosexual inexperience.

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of young Japanese adults with no experience of heterosexual intercourse had increased in the past two decades. Among adults in their thirties, around one in ten had no heterosexual experience. Unemployment, temporary/part-time employment and low income were associated with heterosexual inexperience among men. Further research is needed on the factors contributing to and the potential public health and demographic implications of the high proportion of the Japanese population that remains sexually inexperienced well into adult age.

POST-TRANSITIONAL FERTILITY: THE ROLE OF CHILDBEARING POSTPONEMENT IN FUELLING THE SHIFT TO LOW AND UNSTABLE FERTILITY LEVELS

This study discusses fertility trends and variation in countries that completed the transition from high to around-replacement fertility in the 1950s to 1980s, especially in Europe, East Asia and North America, and summarizes the key relevant findings for those countries with a more recent experience of fertility decline towards replacement level. A central finding is that there is no obvious theoretical or empirical threshold around which period fertility tends to stabilize. Period fertility rates usually continue falling once the threshold of replacement fertility is crossed, often to very low levels. While cohort fertility rates frequently stabilize or change gradually, period fertility typically remains unstable. This instability also includes marked upturns and reversals in Total Fertility Rates (TFRs), as experienced in many countries in Europe in the early 2000s. The long-lasting trend towards delayed parenthood is central for understanding diverse, low and unstable post-transitional fertility patterns. In many countries in Europe this shift to a late childbearing pattern has negatively affected the TFR for more than four decades. Many emerging post-transitional countries and regions are likely to experience a similar shift over the next two to three decades, with a depression of their TFRs to very low levels.

The changing relationship between marriage and childbearing in Hong Kong

Births outside marriage (BoM) account for around 15% of all births globally. However, the distribution around the world is very uneven, as are cultural and political attitudes towards them. Studies from East Asia have shown that the percentage of such births is very low, with only modest increases in recent years. The orthodox demographic view holds that the maintenance of conservative views around the relationship between marriage and childbearing can play a role in keeping fertility low. Prenuptial pregnancies (PNP) (where births occur within eight months of marriage) have been identified as a growing phenomenon in Japan, possibly being an ‘alternative’ Asian pathway to family formation. As yet, no comprehensive statistical analysis of the trends of BoM or PNP has been performed for Hong Kong. Using a comprehensive microdata set of birth registration in Hong Kong from 1984–2015 (N = 1,680,831) we provide evidence of recent trends in such ‘alternative pathways’ to family formation and examine predictors through regression analysis. Our results indicate, in common with elsewhere in East Asia, low overall period rates of either BoM or PNP (although the latter has risen notably in recent years). While more recent birth cohorts exhibit higher prevalence of such births, their incomplete nature and higher expected propensity suggests that the figures are exaggerated. In our regression analysis, we find that lower educational attainment is a strong predictor of both BoM and PNP, suggesting that a bifurcation of experience may be occurring. This adds further evidence to the theory that the maintenance of traditional family formation systems in the context of revolutionised educational and work opportunities for women mean that the opportunity costs of the ‘marriage package’ become too high. Current disparities in rights and privileges between married and unmarried parents–and especially their children–means that targeted family planning services and support for vulnerable families are policy priorities.

Associations of gender role attitudes with fertility intentions: A Japanese population-based study on single men and women of reproductive ages

OBJECTIVES

Japan has been experiencing low fertility for many years. In this study, I investigated the relationship between gender role attitudes and fertility intentions among Japanese single men and women of reproductive ages.

STUDY DESIGN

Utilizing the Longitudinal Survey of Adults in the 21st Century data, 8944 men and 7924 women aged 20-34 years with single, childless status were analyzed. Gender role attitudes were assessed by participants' preferences for the division of labor between a man and a woman: income earning, housework, and childcare. Those who preferred men to earn income and women to perform housework and childcare were considered to have traditional attitudes, whereas those who preferred women and men to share these responsibilities were considered to have egalitarian attitudes.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Outcomes were fertility intentions measured by a desire to have children and ideal number of children. Logistic regression analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Egalitarian attitudes about income earning and housework were associated with low fertility intentions (a lesser desire for children) compared to traditional attitudes: adjusted odds ratios were 1.56 [1.36, 1.80] for men and 1.47 [1.26, 1.72] for women with income earning. Men's preference for sharing childcare responsibility was associated with high fertility intentions.

CONCLUSIONS

Japanese society has not shifted away from the traditional division of labor despite the increase in female labor force participation. Low fertility intentions among Japanese men and women with egalitarian attitudes suggest that institutional support for balancing work and family may be necessary to improve the low fertility trend.

Contingent Work Rising: Implications for the Timing of Marriage in Japan

Employment has become increasingly precarious in developed countries, meaning that, for many young adults, jobs provide neither benefits nor security, more work is part time, and employers are increasingly hiring workers from temporary help agencies and contract companies rather than as employees of their own company. These changes in employment relations have profound effects on gender roles and on family transitions of young adults, especially young men and in particular in countries such as Japan, where there are rigid family norms and the male-breadwinner tradition still prevails. The authors examined the effects of the experience of non-regular work on the timing of marriage and whether this differs by sex. Using recent life history data from Japan, they found that men working in non-regular jobs are especially likely to postpone marriage. The implications of the growth of precarious work for changes in work and family institutions in Japan are discussed.

Marriage and Family in East Asia: Continuity and Change

Trends toward later and less marriage and childbearing in East Asia have been even more pronounced than in the West. At the same time, many other features of East Asian families have changed very little. We review recent research on trends in a wide range of family behaviors in China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. We also draw upon a range of theoretical frameworks to argue that trends in marriage and fertility reflect tension between rapid social and economic change and limited change in family expectations and obligations. We discuss how this tension may be contributing to growing socioeconomic differences in patterns of family formation. This focus on East Asia extends research on the second demographic transition in the West by describing how rapid decline in marriage and fertility rates can occur in the absence of major changes in family attitudes or rising individualism.

Gender Equity, Opportunity Costs of Parenthood, and Educational Differences in Unintended First Births: Insights from Japan

We examine educational differences in the intendedness of first births in Japan using data from a nationally representative survey of married women (N = 2,373). We begin by describing plausible scenarios for a negative, null, and positive educational gradient in unintended first births. In contrast to well-established results from the U.S., we find evidence of a positive educational gradient in Japan. Net of basic demographic controls, university graduates are more likely than less-educated women to report first births as unintended. This pattern is consistent with a scenario emphasizing the high opportunity costs of motherhood in countries such as Japan where growing opportunities for women in employment and other domains of public life have not been accompanied by changes in the highly asymmetric roles of men and women within the family. We discuss potential implications of this suggestive finding for other low-fertility settings.

East Asian childbearing patterns and policy developments

Childbearing behavior in East Asian countries has changed rapidly during the past half century from an average of five to seven children per family, to replacement-level fertility, and subsequently to unprecedentedly low levels, the lowest in the world. This article analyzes fertility trends in Hong Kong, Japan, singapore, south Korea, and Taiwan using cohort fertility data and methods, then examines social and economic causes of the childbearing trends, and surveys policies pursued to reverse the fertility trends. Postponement of childbearing started in the 1970s with continuously fewer delayed births being "recuperated," which resulted in ultra-low fertility. A rapid expansion of education and employment among women in a patriarchal environment has generated a stark dilemma for women who would like to combine childbearing with a career. Policy responses have been slow, with a more serious attempt to address issues in recent years. Thus far public and private institutions are not devoting sufficient attention to generating broad social change supportive of parenting.

Child-care availability and fertility in Norway

The child-care and fertility hypothesis has been in the literature for a long time and is straightforward: As child care becomes more available, affordable, and acceptable, the antinatalist effects of increased female educational attainment and work opportunities decrease. As an increasing number of countries express concern about low fertility, the child-care and fertility hypothesis takes on increased importance. Yet data and statistical limitations have heretofore limited empirical tests of the hypothesis. Using rich longitudinal data and appropriate statistical methodology, We show that increased availability of child care increases completed fertility. Moreover, this positive effect of child-care availability is found at every parity transition. We discuss the generalizability of these results to other settings and their broader importance for understanding variation and trends in low fertility.