Seropositivity of Varicella zoster virus in vaccinated Korean children and MAV vaccine group

Estimation of single-dose varicella vaccine effectiveness in South Korea using mathematical modeling

In South Korea, despite the implementation of a universal single-dose vaccination program for children aged 12–15 months in 2005, the varicella incidence rate remains significant. Prior case-control studies have reported that currently used varicella vaccines are extremely inefficacious. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) by fitting a dynamic transmission model to age-specific varicella incidence data from 2007 to 2015 and available vaccine coverage data. The initial vaccine efficacy and primary failure rates were estimated to be 61.1% and 38.9%, respectively. The average duration of protection was 21.4 years. The mean VE [(1-relative risk) %] for the simulated data of 2004–2014 birth cohorts decreased from 59.8% to 50.7% over 9 years. This mathematical modeling study demonstrated that the single-dose vaccine exhibits moderate effectiveness, and a high proportion of primary failure could be a main cause of breakthrough infections. Therefore, a two-dose vaccination strategy should be considered.

The comparison of seroconversion rates among different varicella vaccines administered Turkish children; MAV/06 and vOka

Varicella is a vaccine-preventable disease, and the incidence of varicella has declined since the introduction of varicella vaccine campaigns. A wild type of varicella zoster virus (VZV) was isolated from a 33-month-old child with varicella in Korea in 1989, a different strain (MAV/06). A live-attenuated varicella vaccine containing strain (MAV/06), Suduvax®, was developed in South Korea in 1994. Turkey introduced the varicella vaccine containing the MAV/06 strain (Varicella Vaccine-GCC, Green Cross, South Korea) in January 2019. Therefore, we aimed to compare the seroconversion rates among MAV/06 vaccine- and vOka-administered children. We prospectively collected blood samples from 98 received vOKA and 98 received MAV/06 children 6 weeks after administration, and seroconversion rates were determined by an indirect fluorescence assay (Anti-VZV IIFT IgG, Euroimmun, Germany). Seroconversion rate was significantly higher in vOka group than MAV/06 group (82.7% vs. 64.3%; p = .004). Of the children vaccinated with vOka strain, 17 children did not develop antibodies, 12 were weakly positive, and the remaining 69 children were strongly positive. Of the children who were administered MAV/06 strain, 35 were negative, 20 were weakly positive, and 43 were strongly positive. In conclusion, this study demonstrated that MAV/06 varicella vaccine had lower seroconversion rates and the strong seropositive cases were less common than vOka-administered children. Larger and prospective studies are needed.

Intratracheal inoculation of human varicella zoster virus (VZV; MAV strain) vaccine successfully induced VZV IgG antibodies in rhesus monkeys

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to investigate whether the use of live attenuated varicella zoster virus (VZV) MAV vaccination can efficiently induce VZV antibody production in naive rhesus monkeys as an approach to prevent simian varicella virus (SVV) reactivation in animals immunosuppressed for transplantation studies.

RESULTS

Clinically available human VZV vaccine was used to induce the production of anti-VZV antibodies in rhesus monkeys. A vial of the vaccine was subcutaneously injected at 0 week, and the second and third vaccination was performed at 5 and 6 weeks by intratracheal inoculation. The titer of anti-VZV IgG was assessed at 0, 2, 4, 6, and 7 weeks. At 2 weeks, 3/16 were seropositive for VZV IgG. At 6 weeks, 9/16 were shown to be seropositive. At 7 weeks, 16/16 were found to be seropositive.

CONCLUSIONS

The VZV vaccine via intratrachael inoculation was shown to induce VZV IgG humoral immunity in rhesus monkeys and may be important immunosuppressed macaques for transplantation studies. Although the humoral immunity produced is an important finding, further studies will be necessary to confirm possible protection and it could protect probably against SVV infection in rhesus monkey.

Cross-Sectional Study of Varicella Zoster Virus Immunity in Healthy Korean Children Assessed by Glycoprotein Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay and Fluorescent Antibody to Membrane Antigen Test

The prevalence of varicella is especially high among children in the age group of 4-6 years in South Korea, regardless of vaccination. We investigated the immune status of healthy children enrolled in day-care centers and compared pre- and post-vaccination immunity. Antibody titers were measured using a glycoprotein enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (gpEIA) kit, and the seroconversion rate was assessed using a fluorescent antibody to membrane antigen (FAMA) test. Among 541 vaccinated children, 109 (20.1%) had breakthrough varicella. However, 13 (72.2%) of the 18 unvaccinated children had a history of varicella. The gpEIA geometric mean titers (GMTs) of pre- and 5 weeks post-vaccination in 1-year-old children were 14.7 and 72 mIU/mL, respectively, and the FAMA seroconversion rate was 91.1%. The gpEIA GMTs of 2-, 3-, 4-, 5-, and 6-year-old children were 104.1, 133.8, 223.5, 364.1, and 353.0 mIU/mL, respectively. Even though the gpEIA GMT increased with age, the pattern of gpEIA titer distribution in 4- to 6-year-old vaccinees without varicella history represented both waning immunity and natural boosting immunity. These results suggest that some vaccinees are vulnerable to varicella infection. Therefore, it is necessary to consider a two-dose varicella vaccine regimen in South Korea.

Estimating the basic reproductive number of varicella in South Korea incorporating social contact patterns and seroprevalence

Varicella, which is caused by the varicella zoster virus (VZV), is a common infectious disease affecting children. Varicella vaccines have been used for decades; however, vaccination policies vary across countries because of differences in VZV epidemiology. The basic reproductive number R0 _a transmissibility measure parameter, also differs from country to country. In this study R0 for varicella was estimated in South Korea using the contact rate matrix derived from averaged POLYMOD contact data, the Korean population, and proportionality factor fitted to the Korean VZV seroprevalence R0 for varicella in South Korea was estimated to be 5.67 (95% CI: 5.33, 6.33). Therefore, to reach the herd immunity threshold, the critical vaccine coverage should be greater than 82.4% with a perfect vaccine, or the primary vaccine failure proportion should be less than 17.6% with 100% coverage. Because of the relatively low seroconversion rate and rapidly waning immunity after one-dose vaccination in South Korea, the herd immunity threshold is difficult to attain with only a one-dose vaccine. Two doses of vaccination may be necessary to effectively interrupt varicella transmission and maintain herd immunity in South Korea. The study results can help guide the decision-making on an effective varicella vaccination policy in South Korea.

The impact of two-dose varicella vaccination on varicella and herpes zoster incidence in South Korea using a mathematical model with changing population demographics

BACKGROUND

In South Korea, one-dose varicella vaccination was introduced to the National Immunization Program in 2005, but varicella outbreaks have continued to occur. Therefore, a two-dose vaccination strategy is considered.

METHODS

We developed an age-structured deterministic compartment model using Korean population projection data. The impact of adding a second dose of varicella vaccine on varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) epidemiology was assessed under four different vaccine effectiveness (VE) scenarios (base, moderate, lowest, highest) and the optimal timing of the second vaccine dose (18 months, 4, 5, or 6 years of age) was examined over the period 2020-2065.

RESULTS

A two-dose vaccination schedule reduced the cumulative varicella incidence by > 90% compared to no vaccination, regardless of the VE. The additional reduction attributable to a second dose compared to a single dose was greatest (82%) with the lowest VE scenario. A second dose at 6 years of age reduced the varicella incidence at a population level, whereas a second dose at 18 months of age reduced the varicella incidence primarily in the target birth cohorts. Routine vaccination at the age of 18 months with a catch-up vaccination of 6-year-olds was the optimal strategy for birth cohort and population-level control. HZ incidence continued to increase under no vaccination scenario, which represents the effect of aging population. Under a two-dose scenario, the additional increase in HZ incidence attributable to the reduced exogenous boosting was small relative to a one-dose scenario and a further reduction in HZ cases was observed.

CONCLUSION

A two-dose varicella vaccination schedule would significantly reduce varicella and HZ incidence in the long term. A second dose at the age of 18 months with a catch-up vaccination of 6-year-olds would be optimal for controlling varicella in South Korea.

Immunogenicity and safety profiles of a new MAV/06 strain varicella vaccine in healthy children: A multinational, multicenter, randomized, double-blinded, active-controlled phase III study

Immunization is the most effective preventive strategy against varicella. While the Oka strain is commonly used for varicella vaccination worldwide, Korea widely uses the MAV/06 strain. A new live attenuated MAV/06 strain varicella vaccine (MG1111), which uses the new cell line Medical Research Council-5 for better viral propagation, was developed. MG1111 was approved by Korean health authorities. Here, we report the results of phase III, randomized, double-blind, multicenter study conducted in Korea and Thailand, which compared the immunogenicity and safety profiles of MG1111 versus the control vaccine, Varivax^TM. In total, 515 healthy children (12 month-12 years) were randomized 1:1 to receive either the MG1111 or control vaccine (MG1111: 258, Control: 257). The seroconversion rate (SCR) and geometric mean titer (GMT) were measured using the fluorescent antibody to membrane antigen (FAMA) test. The MG1111 group achieved a SCR of 97.9% (95% CI: 95.2-99.3) after vaccination. The lower limit of 95% CI for SCR difference (MG1111-Varivax^TM) was -4.0%, which was higher than the specified non-inferiority margin of -10%. Further, the GMT of the MG1111 increased from 2.0 to 74.2 (95% CI: 65.0-84.8) and the lower limits of the 95% CI for post-vaccination GMT ratios (MG1111/Varivax^TM) were 0.55 higher than the specified parameter of 0.5. Therefore, the MG1111 group was not statistically inferior to the control vaccine group in terms of SCR and GMT. Furthermore, the MG1111 and control vaccine groups were not significantly different in the percentage of participants showing adverse events-solicited, local, or systemic during 43-day period of observation and serious adverse events during 6 month of observation. The present results indicate that MG1111was not immunologically inferior to Varivax^TM, and safety profiles of MG1111 are similar to those of Varivax^TM.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal varicella vaccination in Turkey using a dynamic transmission model

BACKGROUND

In 2013, Turkey introduced one-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) at 12 months of age. Inclusion of a second dose is being considered.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic transmission model to evaluate three vaccination strategies: single dose at 12 months (1D) or second dose at either 18 months (2D-short) or 6 years of age (2D-long). Costs and utilization were age-stratified and separated into inpatient and outpatient costs for varicella and herpes zoster (HZ). We ran the model including and excluding HZ-related costs and impact of exogenous boosting.

RESULTS

Five years post-introduction of UVV (1D), the projected varicella incidence rate decreases from 1,674 cases pre-vaccine to 80 cases/100,000 person-years. By 25 years, varicella incidence equilibrates at 39, 12, and 16 cases/100,000 person-years for 1D, 2D-short, and 2D-long strategies, respectively, using a highly effective vaccine. With or without including exogenous boosting impact and/or HZ-related costs and health benefits, the 1D strategy is least costly, but 2-dose strategies are cost-effective considering a willingness-to-pay threshold equivalent to the gross domestic product. The model predicted a modest increase in HZ burden during the first 20-30 years, after which time HZ incidence equilibrates at a lower rate than pre-vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support adding a second varicella vaccine dose in Turkey, as doing so is highly cost-effective across a wide range of assumptions regarding the burden associated with varicella and HZ disease.

Reply letter: trends in varicella and herpes zoster epidemiology before and after the implementation of universal one-dose varicella vaccination over one decade in South Korea, 2003-2015

In the letter, Lai SW suggested that the cost-benefit of two-dose varicella vaccines should be considered since universal one-dose vaccination effectively reduced varicella incidence in Taiwan. However, the vaccination impact was different between South Korea and Taiwan. In South Korea, only a moderate reduction in varicella incidence was observed after implementing universal one-dose vaccination. Such difference possibly reflects the relatively high background varicella incidence in South Korea. As substantial variability in varicella epidemiology exists across countries, an optimal vaccination strategy may differ in each country. Despite the effectiveness of one-dose vaccine being moderate, primary vaccine failure and rapidly waning immunity are major concerns. Therefore, two-dose vaccination would be a reasonable choice for effectively preventing virus transmission in South Korea.

Trends in varicella and herpes zoster epidemiology before and after the implementation of universal one-dose varicella vaccination over one decade in South Korea, 2003-2015

Background: In South Korea, the one-dose varicella vaccine was included in the National Immunization Program for children aged 12-15 months in 2005, and the vaccine coverage reached >95%. The impact of varicella vaccination on varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) was investigated, accounting for demographic changes over time.Methods: We calculated the crude and age-sex standardized incidence rates (IRs) and age-specific IRs of varicella and HZ from 2003 to 2015, using the National Health Information Database including approximately 50 million Koreans. The annual incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated using a negative binomial regression analysis, adjusting for age and sex.Results: The crude varicella IR steadily declined by 67%, from 5.70/1000 to 1.87/1000 person years (IRR per year: 0.91; 95% CI 0.89-0.93), but the adjusted IRs showed a significant decline only during 2010-2015 (adjusted IRR per year: 0.90; 95% CI 0.88-0.93). The greatest decline was found in children ≤4 years of age, whereas the IR increased until 2011 and then declined afterward in children aged 5-9 years, who represented the highest incidence age group in 2013-2015. The crude HZ IR increased from 2.67/1000 to 9.80/1000 person years (IRR per year: 1.12; 95% CI 1.10-1.15), and the adjusted IR also followed the same trend. A similar increasing trend was observed before and after universal vaccination.Conclusions: One-dose varicella vaccination was moderately effective in preventing varicella, but this strategy was insufficient to interrupt varicella transmission in children. Furthermore, the HZ incidence dramatically increased over this decade. The current vaccination strategy against varicella-zoster disease should be reconsidered.

Increasing varicella incidence rates among children in the Republic of Korea: an age-period-cohort analysis

In the Republic of Korea, despite the introduction of one-dose universal varicella vaccination in 2005 and achieving a high coverage rate of 98.9% in 2012, the incidence rate has been increased sevenfold. This study aimed to investigate time trends of varicella incidence rate, assessing the age, period and birth cohort effects. We used national data on the annual number of reported cases from 2006 to 2017. A log-linear Poisson regression model was used to estimate age-period-cohort effects on varicella incidence rate. From 2006 to 2017, the incidence of varicella increased from 22.5 cases to more than 154.8 cases per 100 000. Peak incidence has shifted from 4 to 6 years old. The estimated period and cohort effects showed significant upward patterns, with a linear increasing trend by net drift. There has been an increase in the incidence among the Korean population regarding period and cohort despite the universal vaccination of varicella vaccine. Our data suggest the need for additional studies to address the current gap in herd immunity.

Global impact of varicella vaccination programs

Although varicella is usually a mild and self-limited disease, complications can occur. In 1998, the World Health Organization recommended varicella vaccination for countries where the disease has a significant public health burden. Nonetheless, concerns about a shift in the disease to older groups, an increase in herpes zoster in the elderly and cost-effectiveness led many countries to postpone universal varicella vaccine introduction. In this review, we summarize the accumulating evidence, available mostly from high and middle-income countries supporting a high impact of universal vaccination in reductions of the incidence of the disease and hospitalizations and its cost-effectiveness. We have also observed the effect of herd immunity and noted that there is no definitive and consistent association between vaccination and the increase in herpes zoster incidence in the elderly.

Understanding the role of exogenous boosting in modeling varicella vaccination

INTRODUCTION

The exogenous boosting (EB) hypothesis posits that cell-mediated immunity is boosted for individuals reexposed to varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Historically, mathematical models of the impact of universal childhood varicella vaccination (UVV) have used limited data to capture EB and often conclude that UVV will temporarily increase herpes zoster (HZ) incidence.

AREAS COVERED

We updated a 2013 systematic literature review of 40 studies to summarize new evidence from observational or modeling studies related to EB and its parameterization. We abstracted data on observational study designs and mathematical model structures, EB frameworks, and HZ-related parameter values.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

This review identified an additional 41 studies: 22 observational and 19 modeling studies. Observational analyses generally reported pre-UVV increases in HZ incidence, making it difficult to attribute post-UVV increases to UVV versus other causes. Modeling studies considered a range of EB frameworks, from no boosting to full permanent immunity. Mathematical modeling efforts are needed in countries with long-standing vaccination programs to capture the dynamics of VZV transmission and temporal changes that may affect HZ incidence. Use of real-world pre-/postvaccination data on varicella and HZ incidence to validate model predictions may improve approaches to EB parameterization and understanding of the effects of varicella vaccination programs.

Incidence rate of breakthrough varicella observed in healthy children after 1 or 2 doses of varicella vaccine: Results from a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Although extensive varicella vaccination coverage has been reported in many countries, breakthrough varicella (BV) still occurs in healthy children. We performed a meta-analysis to understand whether 2 varicella vaccine doses are needed in children and, if so, to determine the best time to vaccinate.

METHODS

The BV incidence rates after 1 or 2 doses of varicella vaccine were pooled using random effects, and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to estimate the risk factors after vaccination.

RESULTS

A total of 27 original articles were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled average BV incidence rate in children vaccinated with 1 dose was 8.5 cases per 1,000 person years (PY) (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.3-13.7; random effects model) and 2.2 cases per 1,000 PY (95% CI, 0.5-9.3; random effects model) in children vaccinated with 2 doses. The pooled trend of the annual BV incidence rate from the first to eighth year fluctuated, with a peak annual incidence rate of 35.3 cases per 1,000 population in the fourth year. The meta-regression showed that design type, type of vaccine, and their interaction accounted for approximately 71.74% of the heterogeneity in the average BV incidence rate after 1 vaccine dose.

CONCLUSIONS

Two doses of varicella vaccine are more effective than a single dose, and 3-4 years between the first and second vaccinations may achieve higher efficacy.

Vaccination history in elementary school children enrolled in the varicella epidemic investigations held in Jeju-si, Korea in the first half of 2017

OBJECTIVES

The reported incidence rate of varicella infection in Jeju-do is higher compared with the national average. This study aimed to examine varicella vaccination history and evaluate clinical manifestation of varicella cases in Jeju-do.

METHODS

Based on the guideline suggested by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), two epidemic investigations for varicella infection were conducted in the first half of 2017. The history of varicella vaccination was confirmed using the Integrated Control System for Diseases and Health operated by the KCDC.

RESULTS

Out of a total of 60 elementary school children as the study subjects, all had been previously vaccinated against varicella. Twenty cases (33%) showed mild clinical manifestations and no complications.

CONCLUSIONS

As the government of Jeju-do has supplied a single-labeled vaccine since 2011, there is a need to evaluate the type of vaccination failure such as primary or secondary.

Effectiveness of Varicella Vaccination Program in Preventing Laboratory-Confirmed Cases in Children in Seoul, Korea

A universal one-dose varicella vaccination program was introduced in 2005 in Republic of Korea. However, the incidence of varicella in Korea has tripled over the last decade. We conducted a community based 1:1 matched case-control study to assess the effectiveness of one MAV strain-based vaccine and three Oka strain-based vaccines licensed for use in Korea. All cases were children in Seoul, Korea with varicella who were reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System in Seoul during 2013. The controls were age-matched children with mumps or scarlet fever but no history of varicella. We included 537 cases and 537 controls. The overall effectiveness of one dose of varicella vaccination was 13% (95% confidence interval [CI], -17.3-35.6). Of the four licensed varicella vaccines, only one was highly effective (88.9%; 95% CI, 52.1-97.4). The vaccine effectiveness for the other vaccines were 71.4% (95% CI, -37.5-94.1), -5% (95% CI, -61.9-31.9), and -100% (95% CI, -700-50.0). The overall effectiveness of vaccination was 75.8% (95% CI, 22.8-92.4) in the first year after vaccination and decreased thereafter; the effectiveness became -7.2% (95% CI, -130.9-59.2) in the fourth year after vaccination. Further studies are warranted to investigate reduced effectiveness of varicella vaccines in Korea.