Influenza in temperate and tropical Asia: a review of epidemiology and vaccinology

Mathematical modeling for estimating influenza vaccine efficacy: A case study of the Valencian Community, Spain

Vaccine efficacy and its quantification is a crucial concept for the proper design of public health vaccination policies. In this work we proposed a mathematical model to estimate the efficacy of the influenza vaccine in a real-word scenario. In particular, our model is a SEIR-type epidemiological model, which distinguishes vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Mathematically, its dynamics is governed by a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations, where the non-linearity arises from the effective contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Two key aspects of this study is that we use a vaccine distribution over time that is based on real data specific to the elderly people in the Valencian Community and the calibration process takes into account that over one influenza season a specific proportion of the population becomes infected with influenza. To consider the effectiveness of the vaccine, the model incorporates a parameter, the vaccine attenuation factor, which is related with the vaccine efficacy against the influenza virus. With this framework, in order to calibrate the model parameters and to obtain an influenza vaccine efficacy estimation, we considered the 2016-2017 influenza season in the Valencian Community, Spain, using the influenza reported cases of vaccinated and unvaccinated. In order to ensure the model identifiability, we choose to deterministically calibrate the parameters for different scenarios and we find the one with the minimum error in order to determine the vaccine efficacy. The calibration results suggest that the influenza vaccine developed for 2016-2017 influenza season has an efficacy of approximately 76.7%, and that the risk of becoming infected is five times higher for an unvaccinated individual in comparison with a vaccinated one. This estimation partially agrees with some previous studies related to the influenza vaccine. This study presents a new integrated mathematical approach to study the influenza vaccine efficacy and gives further insight into this important public health topic.

Epidemiologic and Virologic Characteristics of Influenza in Lao PDR, 2016-2023

BACKGROUND

Influenza sentinel surveillance in Lao PDR is used to inform seasonal vaccination programs. This analysis reviews epidemiologic and virologic characteristics of influenza virus infection over 8 years, before and after emergence of SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

Data collected for ILI and SARI surveillance during January 2016 through December 2023 were analyzed from nine hospitals. Respiratory specimens from ILI and SARI cases were tested by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction to determine influenza positivity and subtype and lineage. Aggregate counts of outpatient visits and hospitalizations were collected from hospital logbooks. Epidemiologic trends of influenza activity were described, and the proportional contribution of influenza-associated ILI and SARI to outpatient and inpatient loads was estimated.

RESULTS

Influenza was detected year-round with positivity peaking during September through January and occurring in most years approximately 1 month earlier in the south than the north. After decreasing in 2 years following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, influenza positivity increased in 2022 and resumed its typical temporal trend. Influenza-associated ILI contribution to outpatient visits was highest among children ages 5-14 years (3.0% of all outpatient visits in 2023), and influenza-associated SARI contribution to inpatient hospitalizations was highest among children ages 2-4 years (2.2% of all hospitalizations in 2023).

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza surveillance in Lao PDR provides clinicians and public health authorities with information on geographic and temporal patterns of influenza transmission. Influenza surveillance data support current vaccination timing and recommendations to vaccinate certain populations, especially young children.

Analysis of seasonal H3N2 influenza virus epidemic characteristics and whole genome features in Jining City from 2018 to 2023

Seasonal H3N2 influenza virus, known for its rapid evolution, poses a serious threat to human health. This study focuses on analyzing the influenza virus trends in Jining City (2018-2023) and understanding the evolving nature of H3N2 strains. Data on influenza-like cases were gathered from Jining City's sentinel hospitals: Jining First People's Hospital and Rencheng Maternal and Child Health Hospital, using the Chinese Influenza Surveillance Information System. Over the period from 2018 to 2023, 7844 throat swab specimens were assessed using real-time fluorescence quantitative PCR for influenza virus nucleic acid detection. For cases positive for seasonal H3N2 influenza virus, virus isolation was followed by whole genome sequencing. Evolutionary trees were built for the eight gene segments, and protein variation analysis was performed. From 2018 to 2023, influenza-like cases in Jining City represented 6.99% (237 299/3 397 247) of outpatient visits, peaking in December and January. Influenza virus was detected in 15.67% (1229/7844) of cases, primarily from December to February. Notably, no cases were found in the 2020-2021 season. Full genome sequencing was conducted on 70 seasonal H3N2 strains, revealing distinct evolutionary branches across seasons. Significant antigenic site variations in the HA protein were noted. No resistance mutations to inhibitors were found, but some strains exhibited mutations in PA, NS1, PA-X, and PB1-F2. Influenza trends in Jining City saw significant shifts in the 2020-2021 and 2022-2023 seasons. Seasonal H3N2 exhibited rapid evolution. Sustained vigilance is imperative for vaccine updates and antiviral selection.

Cross-sectional study of influenza trends and costs in Malaysia between 2016 and 2018

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

While influenza circulates year-round in Malaysia, research data on its incidence is scarce. Yet, this information is vital to the improvement of public health through evidence-based policies. In this cross-sectional study, we aimed to determine the trends and financial costs of influenza.

METHODS

Data for the years 2016 through 2018 were gathered retrospectively from several sources. These were existing Ministry of Health (MOH) influenza sentinel sites data, two teaching hospitals, and two private medical institutions in the Klang Valley, Malaysia. Expert consensus determined the final estimates of burden for laboratory-confirmed influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI). Economic burden was estimated separately using secondary data supplemented by MOH casemix costing.

RESULTS

Altogether, data for 11,652 cases of ILI and 5,764 cases of SARI were extracted. The influenza B subtype was found to be predominant in 2016, while influenza A was more prevalent in 2017 and 2018. The distribution timeline revealed that the highest frequency of cases occurred in March and April of all three years. The costs of influenza amounted to MYR 310.9 million over the full three-year period.

CONCLUSIONS

The study provides valuable insights into the dynamic landscape of influenza in Malaysia. The findings reveal a consistent year-round presence of influenza with irregular seasonal peaks, including a notable influenza A epidemic in 2017 and consistent surges in influenza B incidence during March across three years. These findings underscore the significance of continuous monitoring influenza subtypes for informed healthcare strategies as well as advocate for the integration of influenza vaccination into Malaysia's national immunization program, enhancing overall pandemic preparedness.

Clinical Presentation, Risk Factors, and Comparison of Laboratory Diagnostics for Seasonal Influenza Virus Among Cambodians From 2007 to 2020

Background

Despite its global significance, challenges associated with understanding the epidemiology and accurately detecting, measuring, and characterizing the true burden of seasonal influenza remain in many resource-poor settings.

Methods

A prospective observational study was conducted in Cambodia at 28 health facilities between 2007 and 2020 utilizing passive surveillance data of patients presenting with acute undifferentiated febrile illness (AUFI) to describe the prevalence of influenza A and B and characterize associated risk factors and symptoms using a questionnaire. A comparison of rapid influenza diagnostic tests (RIDTs) and real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) results was also conducted.

Results

Of 30 586 total participants, 5634 (18.4%) tested positive for either influenza A or B, with 3557 (11.6%) positive for influenza A and 2288 (7.5%) positive for influenza B during the study. Influenza A and B were strongly associated with the rainy season (odds ratio [OR], 2.30; P < .001) and being from an urban area (OR, 1.45; P < .001). Analysis of individual symptoms identified cough (OR, 2.8; P < .001), chills (OR, 1.4; P < .001), and sore throat (OR, 1.4; P < .001) as having the strongest positive associations with influenza among patients with AUFI. Analysis comparing RIDTs and rRT-PCR calculated the overall sensitivity of rapid tests to be 0.492 (95% CI, 0.479-0.505) and specificity to be 0.993 (95% CI, 0.992-0.994) for both influenza type A and B.

Conclusions

Findings from this 14-year study include describing the epidemiology of seasonal influenza over a prolonged time period and identifying key risk factors and clinical symptoms associated with infection; we also demonstrate the poor sensitivity of RIDTs in Cambodia.

Influenza vaccination allocation in tropical settings under constrained resources

Influenza virus seasonality, synchronicity, and vaccine supply differ substantially between temperate and tropical settings, and optimal vaccination strategy may differ on this basis. Most national vaccine recommendations focus on high-risk groups, elderly populations, and healthcare workers despite previous analyses demonstrating broad benefits to vaccinating younger high-contact age groups. Here, we parameterized an age-structured non-seasonal asynchronous epidemiological model of influenza virus transmission for a tropical low-income setting. We evaluated timing and age allocation of vaccines across vaccine supplies ranging from 10% to 90% using decade-based age groups. Year-round vaccination was beneficial when comparing to vaccination strategies focused on a particular time of year. When targeting a single age-group for vaccine prioritization, maximum vaccine allocation to the 10-19 high-contact age group minimized annual influenza mortality for all but one vaccine supply. When evaluating across all possible age allocations, optimal strategies always allocated a plurality of vaccines to school-age children (10-19). The converse however was not true as not all strategies allocating a plurality to children aged 10-19 minimized mortality. Allocating a high proportion of vaccine supply to the 10-19 age group is necessary but not sufficient to minimize annual mortality as distribution of remaining vaccine doses to other age groups also needs to be optimized. Strategies focusing on indirect benefits (vaccinating children) showed higher variance in mortality outcomes than strategies focusing on direct benefits (vaccinating the elderly). However, the indirect benefit approaches showed lower mean mortality and lower minimum mortality than vaccination focused on the elderly.

Factors Influencing the Uptake of Seasonal Influenza Vaccination among Community-Dwelling Older Adults during COVID-19: A Mixed Methods Study

Background: Despite making the influenza vaccine accessible and affordable, vaccination rates remained low among community-dwelling older adults. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the factors influencing vaccine uptake and the impact of COVID-19 on vaccine uptake among community-dwelling older adults in Singapore. Methods: A mixed methods study involving a survey and semi-structured interviews were conducted between September 2020 and July 2021. Community-dwelling older adults aged ≥ 65 years were recruited from 27 Community Nurse Posts. Data on participants’ demographics, health condition(s), vaccination status, attitudes towards influenza infections and vaccinations, willingness to pay, intention for future vaccination and source of information were collected via the survey. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to understand vaccination experiences, key enablers and barriers, and the impact of COVID-19 on vaccine uptake. All interviews were analysed using Braun and Clarke’s thematic analysis. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics, chi-square tests and multinomial logistic regressions. Results: A total of 235 participants completed the survey. Living arrangement was a statistically significant contributing factor for influenza vaccine uptake (ꭓ2= −0.139; p = 0.03). Participants who lived alone were 2.5 times more likely to be vaccinated than those living with others (OR = 2.504, 95% CI: 1.294–4.842, p = 0.006). Avoidance of getting infected (82.5%), avoidance of transmission to others (84.7%), and advice from healthcare professionals to receive vaccination (83.4%) were key enablers, while concerns about possible side effects (41.2%), the effectiveness of the vaccine (42.6%), and not having enough information (48.1%) were barriers. Twenty participants were interviewed. The findings were congruent with the survey results. Five themes were identified as follows: (1) Perceived importance of influenza vaccination, (2) Sphere of influence, (3) Healthcare schemes and medical subsidies, (4) Psychological impediments, and (5) Inconsistent emphases at various touch points. Conclusions: Greater public health efforts are needed to reach out to the larger population of older adults of different living arrangements and those concerned about the possible side effects and effectiveness of the influenza vaccine. Healthcare professionals need to provide more information to address these concerns, especially during COVID-19, to encourage vaccine uptake.

Incidence and Mortality Trends of Upper Respiratory Infections in China and Other Asian Countries from 1990 to 2019

Respiratory infections remain a major public health problem, affecting people of all age groups, but there is still a lack of studies analyzing the burden of upper respiratory infections (URIs) in Asian countries. We used the data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 results to assess the current status and trends of URI burden from 1990 to 2019 in Asian countries. We found that Thailand had the highest age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of URI both in 1990 (354,857.14 per 100,000) and in 2019 (344,287.93 per 100,000); and the highest age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was in China in 1990 (2.377 per 100,000), and in Uzbekistan in 2019 (0.418 per 100,000). From 1990 to 2019, ASIRs of URI slightly increased in several countries, with the speediest in Pakistan (estimated annual percentage change [EAPC] = 0.404%, 95% CI, 0.322% to 0.486%); and Kuwait and Singapore had uptrends of ASMRs, at a speed of an average 3.332% (95% CI, 2.605% to 4.065%) and 3.160% (95% CI, 1.971% to 4.362%) per year, respectively. The age structure of URI was similar at national, Asian and Global levels. Children under the age of five had the highest incidence rate, and the elderly had the highest mortality rate of URI. Asian countries with a Socio-demographic Index between 0.5 and 0.7 had relatively lower ASIRs but higher ASMRs of URIs. The declined rate of URI ASMR in Asian countries was more pronounced in higher baseline (ASMR in 1990) countries. Our findings suggest that there was a huge burden of URI cases in Asia that affected vulnerable and impoverished people's livelihoods. Continuous and high-quality surveillance data across Asian countries are needed to improve the estimation of the disease burden attributable to URIs, and the best public health interventions are needed to curb this burden.

Prediction of upcoming global infection burden of influenza seasons after relaxation of public health and social measures during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The transmission dynamics of influenza were affected by public health and social measures (PHSMs) implemented globally since early 2020 to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to assess the effect of COVID-19 PHSMs on the transmissibility of influenza viruses and to predict upcoming influenza epidemics.

METHODS

For this modelling study, we used surveillance data on influenza virus activity for 11 different locations and countries in 2017-22. We implemented a data-driven mechanistic predictive modelling framework to predict future influenza seasons on the basis of pre-COVID-19 dynamics and the effect of PHSMs during the COVID-19 pandemic. We simulated the potential excess burden of upcoming influenza epidemics in terms of fold rise in peak magnitude and epidemic size compared with pre-COVID-19 levels. We also examined how a proactive influenza vaccination programme could mitigate this effect.

FINDINGS

We estimated that COVID-19 PHSMs reduced influenza transmissibility by a maximum of 17·3% (95% CI 13·3-21·4) to 40·6% (35·2-45·9) and attack rate by 5·1% (1·5-7·2) to 24·8% (20·8-27·5) in the 2019-20 influenza season. We estimated a 10-60% increase in the population susceptibility for influenza, which might lead to a maximum of 1-5-fold rise in peak magnitude and 1-4-fold rise in epidemic size for the upcoming 2022-23 influenza season across locations, with a significantly higher fold rise in Singapore and Taiwan. The infection burden could be mitigated by additional proactive one-off influenza vaccination programmes.

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest the potential for substantial increases in infection burden in upcoming influenza seasons across the globe. Strengthening influenza vaccination programmes is the best preventive measure to reduce the effect of influenza virus infections in the community.

FUNDING

Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.

Dearth of influenza among older adults admitted with respiratory symptoms in Malaysia during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in 2021

Introduction

Influenza is a common respiratory virus which leads to over 400,000 annual deaths globally. Mortality from influenza is highest among those aged 75 years and over living in Africa and Southeast Asia.

Objective

To determine the burden of influenza among older adults presenting to public hospitals with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Methods

This multi-center, prospective, observational study recruited individuals aged 65 years and over who presented to four Malaysian hospitals with SARI from 1 January to 31 December 2021. Those with prior confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection were excluded. SARS-CoV-2 was detected through real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with routine diagnostic kits. Influenza A, influenza B and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) viruses were detected with Xpress Flu/RSV kits using the GeneXpert rapid real-time PCR system (Cepheid, USA).

Results

Samples were obtained from 512 participants, comprising 296 (57.8%) men and 216 (42.2%) women, with a mean age (SD) of 74.0 (7.1) years. Inpatient death occurred in 48 (9.6%) individuals. Significant differences existed in age, ethnicity, and comorbidities across study sites. One (0.2%) case of influenza A, two (0.4%) cases of RSV and 63 (12.5%) cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were detected over the 1-year period. Cases of COVID-19 mirrored national trends derived from open source data, while the dearth of influenza cases mirrored national and global Flunet figures.

Conclusion

Our observational study conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic detected only one case of influenza, alongside a high SARS-CoV-2 positivity rate. The poor uptake of influenza vaccination nationally, worsened by the recent pandemic restrictions, could lead to waning immunity from the absence of seasonal exposure. Potentially deadly outbreaks may then occur when lockdown and infection control measures are eventually removed.

Prevalence of respiratory viruses among paediatric patients in acute respiratory illnesses in Malaysia

Objectives

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are one of the leading causes of childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide. However, there is limited surveillance data on the epidemiological burden of respiratory pathogens in tropical countries like Malaysia. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of respiratory pathogens causing ARIs among children aged <18 years old in Malaysia and their epidemiological characteristics.

Methods

Nasopharyngeal swab specimens received at 12 laboratories located in different states of Malaysia from 2015–2019 were studied. Detection of 18 respiratory pathogens were performed using multiplex PCR.

Results

Data from a total of 23,306 paediatric patients who presented with ARI over a five-year period was studied. Of these, 18538 (79.5%) were tested positive. The most prevalent respiratory pathogens detected in this study were enterovirus/ rhinovirus (6837/ 23000; 29.7%), influenza virus (5176/ 23000; 22.5%) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (3652/ 23000; 15.9%). Throughout the study period, RSV demonstrated the most pronounce seasonality; peak infection occurred during July to September. Whereas the influenza virus was detected year-round in Malaysia. No seasonal variation was noted in other respiratory pathogens. The risk of RSV hospitalisation was found to be significantly higher in children aged less than two years old, whereas hospitalisation rates for the influenza virus peaked at children aged between 3–6 years old.

Conclusion

This study provides insight into the epidemiology and the seasonality of the causative pathogens of ARI among the paediatric population in Malaysia. Knowledge of seasonal respiratory pathogens epidemiological dynamics will facilitate the identification of a target window for vaccination.

Enhancing global health security in Thailand: Strengths and challenges of initiating a One Health approach to avian influenza surveillance

Infectious disease surveillance systems support early warning, promote preparedness, and inform public health response. Pathogens that have human, animal, and environmental reservoirs should be monitored through systems that incorporate a One Health approach. In 2016, Thailand's federal government piloted an avian influenza (AI) surveillance system that integrates stakeholders from human, animal, and environmental sectors, at the central level and in four provinces to monitor influenza A viruses within human, waterfowl, and poultry populations. This research aims to describe and evaluate Thailand's piloted AI surveillance system to inform strategies for strengthening and building surveillance systems relevant to One Health. We assessed this surveillance system using the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (U.S. CDC) “Guidelines for Evaluating Public Health Surveillance Systems” and added three novel metrics: transparency, interoperability, and security. In-depth key informant interviews were conducted with representatives among six Thai federal agencies and departments, the One Health coordinating unit, a corporate poultry producer, and the Thai Ministry of Public Health-U.S. CDC Collaborating Unit. Thailand's AI surveillance system demonstrated strengths in acceptability, simplicity, representativeness, and flexibility, and exhibited challenges in data quality, stability, security, interoperability, and transparency. System efforts may be strengthened through increasing laboratory integration, improving pathogen detection capabilities, implementing interoperable systems, and incorporating sustainable capacity building mechanisms. This innovative piloted surveillance system provides a strategic framework that can be used to develop, integrate, and bolster One Health surveillance approaches to combat emerging global pathogen threats and enhance global health security.

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Infectious disease surveillance systems are often siloed by host, pathogen, and route of entry.

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Thailand initiated an Avian Influenza surveillance system and adopted a One Health model.

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The system is strongest in acceptability, simplicity, representativeness, and flexibility.

Over-the-Counter Medicine Attitudes and Knowledge among University and College Students in Brunei Darussalam: Findings from the First National Survey

Over-the-counter (OTC) medicine is defined as safe and effective for the general public to use, without seeking therapy from a health professional. As primary social media and internet users, university and college students are more likely to be exposed to unverified sources of health information. This study aims to assess the knowledge, attitudes, and behaviour of students at institutions of higher learning in Brunei with regard to the safe use of OTC medicines. A cross-sectional study was performed using a self-administered online questionnaire, adapted from the literature with additional information from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on the educational resources in understanding OTC medicine for consumers. The questionnaire consisted of 4 sections: demographic information, knowledge of OTC medicines, attitudes, and practice. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for data analysis. A total of 335 students returned a completed questionnaire. The students had a mean knowledge score of 7.1 out of 9, with more than half (53.4%) having good knowledge (knowledge score > 7), and only a small percentage (5.7%) with poor knowledge. Almost all of the students (99.7%) had a positive attitude toward OTC medicine use. Few of the students practiced improper habits in terms of OTC medicine use, such as not reading the instructions or taking more than the recommended dose. Awareness of proper OTC medicine use among students in institutions of higher learning is necessary to prevent the rise of inappropriate user practices.

Subtype H3N2 Influenza A Viruses: An Unmet Challenge in the Western Pacific

Subtype H3N2 influenza A viruses (A(H3N2)) have been the dominant strain in some countries in the Western Pacific region since the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic. Vaccination is the most effective way to prevent influenza; however, low vaccine effectiveness has been reported in some influenza seasons, especially for A(H3N2). Antigenic mismatch introduced by egg-adaptation during vaccine production between the vaccine and circulating viral stains is one of the reasons for low vaccine effectiveness. Here we review the extent of this phenomenon, the underlying molecular mechanisms and discuss recent strategies to ameliorate this, including new vaccine platforms that may provide better protection and should be considered to reduce the impact of A(H3N2) in the Western Pacific region.

Differentiating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from influenza and dengue

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presents with non-specific clinical features. This may result in misdiagnosis or delayed diagnosis, and lead to further transmission in the community. We aimed to derive early predictors to differentiate COVID-19 from influenza and dengue. The study comprised 126 patients with COVID-19, 171 with influenza and 180 with dengue, who presented within 5 days of symptom onset. All cases were confirmed by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction tests. We used logistic regression models to identify demographics, clinical characteristics and laboratory markers in classifying COVID-19 versus influenza, and COVID-19 versus dengue. The performance of each model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Shortness of breath was the strongest predictor in the models for differentiating between COVID-19 and influenza, followed by diarrhoea. Higher lymphocyte count was predictive of COVID-19 versus influenza and versus dengue. In the model for differentiating between COVID-19 and dengue, patients with cough and higher platelet count were at increased odds of COVID-19, while headache, joint pain, skin rash and vomiting/nausea were indicative of dengue. The cross-validated area under the ROC curve for all four models was above 0.85. Clinical features and simple laboratory markers for differentiating COVID-19 from influenza and dengue are identified in this study which can be used by primary care physicians in resource limited settings to determine if further investigations or referrals would be required.

Influenza vaccine failure in the tropics: a retrospective cohort study of waning effectiveness

Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) wanes over the course of a temperate climate winter season but little data are available from tropical countries with year-round influenza virus activity. In Singapore, a retrospective cohort study of adults vaccinated from 2013 to 2017 was conducted. Influenza vaccine failure was defined as hospital admission with polymerase chain reaction-confirmed influenza infection 2–49 weeks after vaccination. Relative VE was calculated by splitting the follow-up period into 8-week episodes (Lexis expansion) and the odds of influenza infection in the first 8-week period after vaccination (weeks 2–9) compared with subsequent 8-week periods using multivariable logistic regression adjusting for patient factors and influenza virus activity. Records of 19 298 influenza vaccinations were analysed with 617 (3.2%) influenza infections. Relative VE was stable for the first 26 weeks post-vaccination, but then declined for all three influenza types/subtypes to 69% at weeks 42–49 (95% confidence interval (CI) 52–92%, P = 0.011). VE declined fastest in older adults, in individuals with chronic pulmonary disease and in those who had been previously vaccinated within the last 2 years. Vaccine failure was significantly associated with a change in recommended vaccine strains between vaccination and observation period (adjusted odds ratio 1.26, 95% CI 1.06–1.50, P = 0.010).

Vigna radiata (L.) R. Wilczek Extract Inhibits Influenza A Virus by Targeting Viral Attachment, Penetration, Assembly, and Release

Vigna radiata (L.) R. Wilczek (mung bean) is a Chinese functional food with antioxidant, antimicrobial and anti-inflammatory activities. However, little is known about its antiviral activity. We aimed to investigate the antiviral activity and mechanisms of action of Vigna radiata extract (VRE) against influenza virus. HPLC was conducted to analyze the components of the VRE. The anti-influenza viral activity of VRE in Mardin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells was evaluated by virus titration assays, hemagglutination assays, quantitative RT-PCR assays, cellular α-glucosidase activity assays and neuraminidase activity assays. Chromatographic profiling analysis identified two major flavonoids, vitexin and isovitexin, in the ethanol extract of Vigna radiata. Through in vitro studies, we showed that VRE, at concentrations up to 2,000 μg/ml, exhibited no cytotoxicity in MDCK cells. VRE protected cells from influenza virus-induced cytopathic effects and significantly inhibited viral replication in a concentration-dependent manner. A detailed time-of-addition assay revealed that VRE may act on both the early and late stages of the viral life cycle. We demonstrated that 1) VRE inhibits virus entry by directly blocking the HA protein of influenza virus; 2) VRE inhibits virus entry by directly binding to cellular receptors; 3) VRE inhibits virus penetration; 4) VRE inhibits virus assembly by blocking cellular α-glucosidase activity, thus reducing HA protein trafficking to the cell surface; and 5) VRE inhibits virus release by inhibiting viral neuraminidase activity. In summary, Vigna radiata extract potently interferes with two different subtypes of influenza viruses at multiple steps during the infectious cycle, demonstrating its broad-spectrum potential as an anti-influenza preventive and therapeutic agent. Continued development of Vigna radiata-derived products into antiviral therapeutics is warranted.

Age-Related Differences in Immunological Responses to SARS-CoV-2

There is a striking age-related disparity in the prevalence and severity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-induced coronavirus disease 2019 infections, which might be explained by age-dependent immunological mechanisms. These include age-related physiological differences in immunological responses, cross-neutralizing antibodies, and differences in levels and binding affinity of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, the SARS-CoV-2 target receptor; antibody-dependent enhancement in adults manifesting with an overexuberant systemic inflammation in response to infection; and the increased likelihood of comorbidities in adults and the elderly. Emerging immunological phenomena such as Pediatric Multi-System Inflammatory Disorder Temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 or Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children are now being observed, though the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. Understanding the mechanisms through which pediatric patients are protected from severe novel coronaviruses infections will provide critical clues to the pathophysiology of coronavirus disease 2019 infection and inform future therapeutic and prophylactic interventions. Asymptomatic carriage in children may have major public health implications, which will have an impact on social and health care policies on screening and isolation practices, school reopening, and safe distancing requirements in the community.

The COVID-19 pandemic: diverse contexts; different epidemics-how and why?

It is very exceptional that a new disease becomes a true pandemic. Since its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread to nearly all countries of the world in only a few months. However, in different countries, the COVID-19 epidemic takes variable shapes and forms in how it affects communities. Until now, the insights gained on COVID-19 have been largely dominated by the COVID-19 epidemics and the lockdowns in China, Europe and the USA. But this variety of global trajectories is little described, analysed or understood. In only a few months, an enormous amount of scientific evidence on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 has been uncovered (knowns). But important knowledge gaps remain (unknowns). Learning from the variety of ways the COVID-19 epidemic is unfolding across the globe can potentially contribute to solving the COVID-19 puzzle. This paper tries to make sense of this variability-by exploring the important role that context plays in these different COVID-19 epidemics; by comparing COVID-19 epidemics with other respiratory diseases, including other coronaviruses that circulate continuously; and by highlighting the critical unknowns and uncertainties that remain. These unknowns and uncertainties require a deeper understanding of the variable trajectories of COVID-19. Unravelling them will be important for discerning potential future scenarios, such as the first wave in virgin territories still untouched by COVID-19 and for future waves elsewhere.