A model of influenza infection and vaccination in children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China

Risk factors for hospitalization and pneumonia development of pediatric patients with seasonal influenza during February-April 2023

Objectives

In China influenza remains a low activity for continuous 3 years due to COVID-19 controls. We here sought to study the clinical characteristics and risk factors of the influenza infection among children after the mandatory COVID-19 restrictions were lifted.

Methods

We included 1,006 pediatric patients with influenza A virus (IAV) infection, enrolled in one tertiary hospital in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu Province, China, during February to April 2023. Patients were divided into the outpatient (n = 798) and inpatient (n = 208) groups, and their baseline characteristics were compared between two groups to conclude the risk factors for pediatric hospitalization. Separately, pediatric inpatients (n = 208) were further divided into the pneumonia and non-pneumonia groups with comparison of their clinical characteristics, including their laboratory test results and representative radiological features, to derive the key determinants for pneumonia development after hospitalization.

Results

Compared to outpatients, IAV-infected pediatric inpatients exhibited younger age, higher female: male ratio, more co-infection of influenza B virus (IBV) and hematological abnormality. Multivariate regression analysis determined the independent risk factors of hospitalization to be the clinical symptom of abdominal pain (OR = 2.63, [95% CI, 1.05-6.57], p = 0.039), co-infection of IBV (OR = 44.33, [95% CI, 25.10-78.30], p = 0.001), elevated levels of lymphocytes (OR = 2.24, [95% CI,1.65-3.05], p = 0.001) and c-reactive proteins (CRPs) (OR = 1.06, [95% CI, 1.03-1.08], p = 0.001) upon hospital admission. Furthermore, the cough symptom (OR = 17.39, [95% CI, 3.51-86.13], p = 0.001) and hospitalization length (OR = 1.36, [95% CI, 1.12-1.67], p = 0.002) were determined to be risk factors of pneumonia acquirement for pediatric inpatients.

Conclusion

While the abdominal pain, viral co-infection and some hematological abnormality mainly contribute to hospitalization of pediatric patients with IAV infection, the length of hospital stay and clinical sign of coughing upon hospital admission constitute the key determinants for nosocomial pneumonia development.

Cost-Effectiveness and Health Impacts of Different Influenza Vaccination Strategies for Children in China

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to evaluate the economic and health impacts of 3 influenza vaccines available in China, including trivalent inactivated vaccine, quadrivalent inactivated vaccine, and live attenuated influenza vaccine, for children aged 6 months to 18 years.

METHODS

Two decision-analytic models were developed to simulate 4 vaccination strategies. Outcomes included total costs from a societal perspective in 2021, quality-adjusted life-year loss, numbers of outpatient and inpatient cases, and deaths avoided using each strategy. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the uncertainty of model inputs.

RESULTS

For children aged 6 months to 3 years, trivalent inactivated vaccine saved $48 million and avoided a loss of 17,637 quality-adjusted life-years compared with no vaccination. For children aged 3-18 years, quadrivalent inactivated vaccine was cost-effective compared with trivalent inactivated vaccine, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $32,948.5/quality-adjusted life-year (willingness-to-pay threshold=$37,653/quality-adjusted life-year), which was sensitive to the RR of vaccine effectiveness of quadrivalent inactivated vaccine versus of trivalent inactivated vaccine. When compared with quadrivalent inactivated vaccine, live attenuated influenza vaccine was $1.28 billion more costly but gained an additional 13,560 quality-adjusted life-years; its incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $123,983.8/quality-adjusted life-year. Live attenuated influenza vaccine would be cost-effective if its vaccine effectiveness was >0.79. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that quadrivalent inactivated vaccine, trivalent inactivated vaccine, live attenuated influenza vaccine, and no vaccination were cost-effective in 55.94%, 33.09%, 10.97%, and 0% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.

CONCLUSIONS

Trivalent inactivated vaccine was cost-effective compared with no vaccination in children aged 6 months to 18 years. Of the 3 vaccination strategies for children aged 3-18 months, quadrivalent inactivated vaccine appears to be the most cost-effective.

Comparative effectiveness of oseltamivir versus peramivir for hospitalized children (aged 0-5 years) with influenza infection

OBJECTIVES

The effectiveness of oseltamivir versus peramivir in children infected with influenza remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate their effectiveness in young children (aged 0-5 years) infected with severe influenza A virus (IAV) or influenza B virus (IBV).

METHODS

We analyzed a cohort of 1662 young children with either IAV (N = 1095) or IBV (N = 567) who received oseltamivir or peramivir treatment from January 1, 2018 to March 31, 2022. Propensity score matching methods were applied to match children who were oseltamivir-treated versus peramivir-treated.

RESULTS

Children who were IAV-infected and IBV-infected shared similar features, such as influenza-associated symptoms and comorbidities at baseline. Among children infected with IAV with bacterial coinfection, the recovery rate was significantly greater in children treated with oseltamivir than in children treated with peramivir (15.6% vs 4.4%, P = 0.01). The median duration of hospitalization was also shorter in children treated with oseltamivir. Among children infected with IAV without bacterial coinfection, the recovery rate was greater in children treated with oseltamivir than in children treated with peramivir (21.1% vs 3.7%, P = 0.002). However, oseltamivir and peramivir offered similar recovery rates and duration of hospitalization (P >0.05 for both) among children infected with IBV.

CONCLUSION

Oseltamivir and peramivir exhibit similar effectiveness in young children with severe influenza B, whereas oseltamivir demonstrated improved recovery and shorter hospitalization in the treatment of severe influenza A in hospitalized children.

The development trend of influenza in China from 2010 to 2019

In this study, we quantify and evaluate the transmission capacity of different types of influenza, and evaluate the flu vaccination effect. Taking the influenza cases reported by the National Influenza Center of China from 2010 to 2019 as the research object (http://www.chinaivdc.cn/cnic), we established the SEIABR model to calculate the influenza infection rate and R₀ for each year from 2010 to 2019, and calculate the influenza A and B influenza infection rates. We further added vaccination measures to the SEIABR model, and analysis the impact of different vaccination rates on the spread of influenza. We find that the range of β(infection rate) is 6.03×10−10 to 9.66×10−10, and the average is 7.95±1.27×10−10, the range of R₀ is .98 to 1.47, and the average is 1.21. Simulation result suggest that vaccine coverage needed to reach 60%-80% to control the spread of influenza virus in China when the vaccine effectiveness was 20%-40%. When the vaccine effectiveness is 40%-60%, vaccine coverage needs to reach 40%-60% to control the spread of influenza virus in China. In China, the infection rate of influenza A is higher than influenza B, to better control the spread of the flu virus, we suggest that we also need to increase the number of people vaccinated or improve the efficiency of vaccines(the current vaccination coverage is probably less than 20%).

Parental preference for influenza vaccine for children in China: a discrete choice experiment

OBJECTIVES

To investigate what factors affect parents' influenza vaccination preference for their children and whether there exists preference heterogeneity among respondents in China.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study. A discrete choice experiment was conducted. Five attributes were identified based on literature review and qualitative interviews, including protection rate, duration of vaccine-induced protection, risk of serious side effects, location of manufacturer and out-of-pocket cost.

SETTING

Multistage sampling design was used. According to geographical location and the level of economic development, 10 provinces in China were selected, and the survey was conducted at community healthcare centres or stations.

PARTICIPANTS

Parents with at least one child aged between 6 months and 5 years old were recruited and the survey was conducted via a face-to-face interview in 2019. In total, 600 parents completed the survey, and 449 who passed the internal consistency test were included in the main analysis.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

A mixed logit model was used to estimate factors affecting parents' preference to vaccinate their children. In addition, sociodemographic characteristics were included to explore the preference heterogeneity.

RESULTS

In general, respondents preferred to vaccinate their children. All attributes were statistically significant and among them, the risk of severe side effects was the most important attribute, followed by the protection rate and duration of vaccine-induced protection. Contrary to our initial expectation, respondents have a stronger preference for the domestic than the imported vaccine. Some preference heterogeneity among parents was also found and in particular, parents who were older, or highly educated placed a higher weight on a higher protection rate.

CONCLUSION

Vaccination safety and vaccine effectiveness are the two most important characteristics that influenced parents' decision to vaccinate against influenza for their children in China. Results from this study will facilitate future policy implementations to improve vaccination uptake rates.

Dynamics of influenza-like illness under urbanization procedure and COVID-19 pandemic in the sub-center of Beijing during 2013-2021

Influenza‐like illness (ILI) varies in intensity year by year, generally keeping a stable pattern except for great changes of its epidemic pattern. Of the most impacting factors, urbanization has been suggested as shaping the intensity of influenza epidemics. Besides, growing evidence indicates the nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 offer great advantages in controlling infectious diseases. The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of urbanization and NPIs on the dynamic of ILI in Tongzhou, Beijing, during January 2013 to March 2021. ILI epidemiological surveillance data in Tongzhou district were obtained from Beijing Influenza Surveillance Network and separated into three periods of urbanization and four intervals of coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Standardized average incidence rates of ILI in each separate stages were calculated and compared by using Wilson method and time series model of seasonal ARIMA. Influenza seasonal outbreaks showed similar epidemic size and intensity before urbanization during 2013–2016. Increased ILI activity was found during the process of Tongzhou's urbanization during 2017–2019, with the rate difference of 2.48 (95% confidence interva [CI]: 2.44, 2.52) and the rate ratio of 1.75 (95% CI: 1.74, 1.76) of ILI incidence between preurbanization and urbanization periods. ILI activity abruptly decreased from the beginning of 2020 and kept at the bottom level almost in every epidemic interval. The top decrease in ILI activity by NPIs was shown in 5–14 years group in 2020–2021 influenza season, as 92.2% (95% CI: 78.3%, 95.2%). The results indicated that both urbanization and NPIs interrupted the epidemic pattern of ILI. We should pay more attention to public health when facing increasing population density, human contact, population mobility, and migration in the process of urbanization. NPIs and influenza vaccination should be implemented as necessary measures to protect people from common infectious diseases like ILI.

The Impact and Vaccination Coverage of Seasonal Influenza among Children Aged 6-59 Months in China in 2017-2018: An Internet Panel Survey

Seasonal influenza vaccination is highly recommended for 6-59-month-old children. To determine the impact of seasonal influenza and the factors affecting influenza vaccine uptake among children, we conducted an opt-in Internet panel survey of parents from 21 March 2018 to 1 April 2018. Overall, 40.5% (1913/4719) of children experienced influenza-like illness (ILI), 92.4% of parents sought medical care for children with ILI (outpatients: 61.2%, inpatients: 12.8%), 39.6% of parents preferred to take their sick child to a tertiary hospital, and 57.3% of family members requested leave to care for children with ILI. There was a median of three days of absenteeism (2, 5) per sick child, and 39.4% of children received the influenza vaccine during the 2017-2018 influenza season. Vaccine coverage among children aged 6-11 months and 48-59 months was lower than that among 12-47-month-old children. The top three reasons for not vaccinating were: the influenza vaccine was not recommended by healthcare workers (21.1%), no knowledge about the influenza vaccine (19.2%), and lack of confidence in the vaccine's effectiveness (14.3%). Our findings highlight the need for awareness about the severity of influenza, hygiene behavior, and effectiveness of the influenza vaccine among children and their family members in China.