Dealing With Uncertainty: Testing Risk- and Ambiguity-Attitude Across Adolescence

The distinct development of stimulus and response serial dependence

Serial dependence (SD) is a phenomenon wherein current perceptions are biased by the previous stimulus and response. This helps to attenuate perceptual noise and variability in sensory input and facilitates stable ongoing perceptions of the environment. However, little is known about the developmental trajectory of SD. This study investigates how the stimulus and response biases of the SD effect develop across three age groups. Conventional analyses, in which previous stimulus and response biases were assessed separately, revealed significant changes in the biases over time. Previous stimulus bias shifted from repulsion to attraction, while previous response bias evolved from attraction to greater attraction. However, there was a strong correlation between stimulus and response orientations. Therefore, a generalized linear mixed-effects (GLME) analysis that simultaneously considered both previous stimulus and response, outperformed separate analyses. This revealed that previous stimulus and response resulted in two distinct biases with different developmental trajectories. The repulsion bias of previous stimulus remained relatively stable across all age groups, whereas the attraction bias of previous response was significantly stronger in adults than in children and adolescents. These findings demonstrate that the repulsion bias towards preceding stimuli is established early in the developing brain (at least by around 10 years old), while the attraction bias towards responses is not fully developed until adulthood. Our findings provide new insights into the development of the SD phenomenon and how humans integrate two opposing mechanisms into their perceptual responses to external input during development.

Why we should focus more attention on uncertainty distress and intolerance of uncertainty in adolescents and emerging adults

Sivertsen et al. (2023) showed that adolescents endorsing high levels of internalizing and externalizing symptoms are at risk of increased mental health problems during emerging adulthood and suggested the existence of both homotypic and heterotypic continuities of mental disorders over time. Since adolescence and emerging adulthood are transition periods highly intertwined with uncertainty, the present perspective contextualizes the findings by Sivertsen et al. (2023) in relation to the extant literature on intolerance of uncertainty and the recently developed Uncertainty Distress Model. Moreover, it claims for further research addressing the way adolescents and emerging adults process and deal with uncertainty. Indeed, focusing more attention on the implications of trans-situational and trans-diagnostic constructs such as uncertainty distress and intolerance of uncertainty in these life stages may hold great promise to design and implement effective mental health prevention programs.

Identifying who adolescents prefer as source of information within their social network

Adolescents are highly influenced by their peers within their social networks. This social influence can stem from both unsolicited peer pressure and the active search for guidance. While extensive research examined the mechanisms of peer pressure, little is known about who adolescents prefer as a source of information. To address this gap, we conducted two independent studies using a novel social search paradigm that allows participants to choose which social sources they wish to observe. In both studies, adolescents demonstrated a preference for their friends over non-friends, as well as for peers who were perceived as trustworthy. Across both studies, we found mixed evidence for the role of perceived popularity as a selection criterion. Notable, study 2 revealed the significance of "cool", "admirable" and "acting mean" as additional characteristics of preferred peers, traits that are often associated with elevated peer status. It also revealed an interest for peers perceived as being smart. These findings highlight the active role adolescents have in choosing social sources and emphasize the importance of multiple peer characteristics. Future research should investigate whether adolescents' interest in these types of peers is contingent upon specific social contexts, age groups, and peer cultures.

What's in the Box? Preschoolers Consider Ambiguity, Expected Value, and Information for Future Decisions in Explore-Exploit Tasks

Self-directed exploration in childhood appears driven by a desire to resolve uncertainties in order to learn more about the world. However, in adult decision-making, the choice to explore new information rather than exploit what is already known takes many factors beyond uncertainty (such as expected utilities and costs) into account. The evidence for whether young children are sensitive to complex, contextual factors in making exploration decisions is limited and mixed. Here, we investigate whether modifying uncertain options influences explore-exploit behavior in preschool-aged children (48-68 months). Over the course of three experiments, we manipulate uncertain options' ambiguity, expected value, and potential to improve epistemic state for future exploration in a novel forced-choice design. We find evidence that young children are influenced by each of these factors, suggesting that early, self-directed exploration involves sophisticated, context-sensitive decision-making under uncertainty.

Uncertainty as a driver of the youth mental health crisis

Mental health problems in young people have been on the rise for over a decade, with that trend accelerating during the pandemic. This review proposes that the catalyst effect of the pandemic offers insights into a key driver of increases in youth depression and anxiety: greater uncertainty. Uncertainty about many aspects of everyday life, including social connections, education, job security and health, increased during the pandemic, and this coincided with increasing rates of depression and anxiety. Lab-based developmental cognitive and clinical neuroscience research on tolerance of uncertainty and adolescent mental health shows that when adolescents fail to show age-typical tolerance of uncertainty, they are at greater risk of mental health problems. Avenues for future research to understand and promote tolerance of uncertainty in adolescents are proposed.

Expecting the unexpected: a review of learning under uncertainty across development

Many of our decisions take place under uncertainty. To successfully navigate the environment, individuals need to estimate the degree of uncertainty and adapt their behaviors accordingly by learning from experiences. However, uncertainty is a broad construct and distinct types of uncertainty may differentially influence our learning. We provide a semi-systematic review to illustrate cognitive and neurobiological processes involved in learning under two types of uncertainty: learning in environments with stochastic outcomes, and with volatile outcomes. We specifically reviewed studies (N = 26 studies) that included an adolescent population, because adolescence is a period in life characterized by heightened exploration and learning, as well as heightened uncertainty due to experiencing many new, often social, environments. Until now, reviews have not comprehensively compared learning under distinct types of uncertainties in this age range. Our main findings show that although the overall developmental patterns were mixed, most studies indicate that learning from stochastic outcomes, as indicated by increased accuracy in performance, improved with age. We also found that adolescents tended to have an advantage compared with adults and children when learning from volatile outcomes. We discuss potential mechanisms explaining these age-related differences and conclude by outlining future research directions.

Sensitivity and specificity in affective and social learning in adolescence

Adolescence is a period of heightened affective and social sensitivity. In this review we address how this increased sensitivity influences associative learning. Based on recent evidence from human and rodent studies, as well as advances in computational biology, we suggest that, compared to other age groups, adolescents show features of heightened Pavlovian learning but tend to perform worse than adults at instrumental learning. Because Pavlovian learning does not involve decision-making, whereas instrumental learning does, we propose that these developmental differences might be due to heightened sensitivity to rewards and threats in adolescence, coupled with a lower specificity of responding. We discuss the implications of these findings for adolescent mental health and education.

Uncertainty deconstructed: conceptual analysis and state-of-the-art review of the ERP correlates of risk and ambiguity in decision-making

Risk and uncertainty are central concepts of decision neuroscience. However, a comprehensive review of the literature shows that most studies define risk and uncertainty in an unclear fashion or use both terms interchangeably, which hinders the integration of the existing findings. We suggest uncertainty as an umbrella term that comprises scenarios characterized by outcome variance where relevant information about the type and likelihood of outcomes may be somewhat unavailable (ambiguity) and scenarios where the likelihood of outcomes is known (risk).These conceptual issues are problematic for studies on the temporal neurodynamics of decision-making under risk and ambiguity, because they lead to heterogeneity in task design and the interpretation of the results. To assess this problem, we conducted a state-of-the-art review of ERP studies on risk and ambiguity in decision-making. By employing the above definitions to 16 reviewed studies, our results suggest that: (a) research has focused more on risk than ambiguity processing; (b) studies assessing decision-making under risk often implemented descriptive-based paradigms, whereas studies assessing ambiguity processing equally implemented descriptive- and experience-based tasks; (c) descriptive-based studies link risk processing to increased frontal negativities (e.g., N2, N400) and both risk and ambiguity to reduced parietal positivities (e.g., P2, P3); (d) experience-based studies link risk to increased P3 amplitudes and ambiguity to increased frontal negativities and the LPC component; (e) both risk and ambiguity processing seem to be related with cognitive control, conflict monitoring, and increased cognitive demand; (f) further research and improved tasks are needed to dissociate risk and ambiguity processing.

Research Review: The neuroscience of emerging adulthood - reward, ambiguity, and social support as building blocks of mental health

BACKGROUND

The interval between adolescence and adulthood, 'emerging adulthood' (EA), lays the foundation for lifelong health and well-being. To date, there exist little empirical data - particularly in the neurobiological domain - to establish markers of risk and resilience during the transition to adulthood. This gap in the literature is concerning given the numerous forms of psychiatric illness that emerge or worsen during this period.

METHODS

In this review, we focus on two strands of research with distinct importance for EA: reward sensitivity, and tolerance of ambiguity. We begin by placing these domains in a framework that considers the unique developmental goals of EA and then synthesize emerging neurobiological research on how these domains develop during EA. We then consider their role in common mental health problems that occur during this interval as well as how social support may moderate outcomes. Finally, we offer recommendations for advancing research to understand developmental process and outcomes in EA.

FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

Few longitudinal studies specifically address emerging adult development and the milestones that characterize this interval. Data on neurobiological development are similarly sparse. Understanding neurobiological development during this window and its links to key adjustment outcomes is crucial for optimizing outcomes.

Development in uncertain contexts: An ecologically informed approach to understanding decision-making during adolescence

Adolescence is a period of development in which youth have new opportunities for decision-making, often in situations where they may have little information or experience to guide their choices. Thus, learning to make decisions under uncertainty is a key challenge during adolescence. To date, researchers have applied economics formalisms to understand the processes that support adolescents in making decisions under two distinct forms of uncertainty: economic risk and economic ambiguity. Economic risk is when the probabilities of outcomes are known. Economic ambiguity is when the probabilities of outcomes are unknown or unknowable. This research has led to foundational knowledge about the basic processes involved in adolescent decision-making, but many experimental paradigms that dissociate economic risk and ambiguity rely on monetary or point-based choices. Given that adolescence is a period of development characterized by a changing social environment, it remains unclear whether the processes that adolescents engage during decision-making on monetary or point-based experimental tasks generalize to their day-to-day experiences in the real world. In this brief piece, we explore how developmental research applying economics formalisms can be bolstered by research on youth's social environments to advance our understanding of decision-making in adolescence. First, we review developmental research by using economic uncertainty paradigms. Next, we highlight research on adolescents' social environments to provide examples of the day-to-day choices that adolescents face among their peers and in their broader communities. Finally, we propose directions for future research integrating these separate approaches to create a more nuanced, ecologically informed understanding of adolescent decision-making.

Risk-taking in the human brain: An activation likelihood estimation meta-analysis of the balloon analog risk task (BART)

The Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART) is increasingly used to assess risk-taking behavior and brain function. However, the brain networks underlying risk-taking during the BART and its reliability remain controversial. Here, we combined the activation likelihood estimation (ALE) meta-analysis with both task-based and task-free functional connectivity (FC) analysis to quantitatively synthesize brain networks involved in risk-taking during the BART, and compared the differences between adults and adolescents studies. Based on 22 pooled publications, the ALE meta-analysis revealed multiple brain regions in the reward network, salience network, and executive control network underlying risk-taking during the BART. Compared with adult risk-taking, adolescent risk-taking showed greater activation in the insula, putamen, and prefrontal regions. The combination of meta-analytic connectivity modeling with task-free FC analysis further confirmed the involvement of the reward, salience, and cognitive control networks in the BART. These findings demonstrate the core brain networks for risk-taking during the BART and support the utility of the BART for future neuroimaging and developmental research.

Risks and rewards in adolescent decision-making

Adolescent decision-making has been characterized as risky, and a heightened reward sensitivity may be one of the aspects contributing to riskier choice-behavior. Previous studies have targeted reward-sensitivity in adolescence and the neurobiological mechanisms of reward processing in the adolescent brain. In recent examples, researchers aim to disentangle the contributions of risk- and reward-sensitivity to adolescent risk-taking. Here, we discuss recent findings of adolescent's risk preferences and the associated neural mechanisms. We highlight potential frameworks that target individual differences in risk preferences in an effort to understand adolescent risk-taking, and with an ultimate goal of leveraging undesirable levels of risk taking.

Social learning across adolescence: A Bayesian neurocognitive perspective

Adolescence is a period of social re-orientation in which we are generally more prone to peer influence and the updating of our beliefs based on social information, also called social learning, than in any other stage of our life. However, how do we know when to use social information and whose information to use and how does this ability develop across adolescence? Here, we review the social learning literature from a behavioral, neural and computational viewpoint, focusing on the development of brain systems related to executive functioning, value-based decision-making and social cognition. We put forward a Bayesian reinforcement learning framework that incorporates social learning about value associated with particular behavior and uncertainty in our environment and experiences. We discuss how this framework can inform us about developmental changes in social learning, including how the assessment of uncertainty and the ability to adaptively discriminate between information from different social sources change across adolescence. By combining reward-based decision-making in the domains of both informational and normative influence, this framework explains both negative and positive social peer influence in adolescence.

The relationships of family income and caste-status with religiousness: Mediation role of intolerance of uncertainty

The relationship between lower socioeconomic status (SES) and religiousness is well known; however, its (psychological mediation) mechanism is not clear. In the present study, we studied the mediation role of intolerance of uncertainty (IU; a personality measure of self-uncertainty) in the effect of SES on religiousness and its dimensions (i.e., believing, bonding, behaving, and belonging), in two different samples (students sample, N = 868, and community sample, N = 250), after controlling the effects of factors like age, sex, handedness, and self-reported risk-taking. The results showed that IU mediated the effects of lower family income and lower caste status (in students’ sample only) on religiousness and its dimensions; higher caste status had a direct effect on religiousness (and its dimensions), and; among the sub-factors of IU, only prospective IU affected religiousness. Thus, along with showing that IU is a mediator of the effects of lower family income and lower caste status on religiousness, the present study supports the contention that religiousness is a latent variable that varied factors can independently initiate. Moreover, the present study suggests a nuanced model of the relationship between the hierarchical caste system and religiousness.

Choosing for others changes dissociable computational mechanisms underpinning risky decision-making

Choices under risk often have consequences for ourselves and others. Yet, it is unclear how the other's identity (stranger, close friend, etc.) influences risky choices made on their behalf. In a mixed within and between subjects design, two participant groups made three series of risky economic decisions: for themselves, another person, or for both themselves and another person (i.e., shared outcomes). One group made choices involving a same-sex stranger (n = 29), the other made choices involving a same-sex close friend (n = 28). Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of computations underlying risky decision-making revealed that relative to choosing for themselves, people were more risk averse, loss averse, and consistent when choices involved another person. Partner identity was additionally crucial: people became risk neutral and more consistent when choosing for friends relative to strangers. These findings establish that the complexity of the social world is mirrored in its nuanced consequences for our choices.

Development of ambiguity aversion from early adolescence to adulthood: New insights from the Ellsberg paradox

This research aimed to clarify whether middle adolescents’ risk-taking is driven by reduced ambiguity aversion. In Study 1, we explored the development of ambiguity aversion using an adaptation of the classic Ellsberg paradox with early adolescents (10–11 years old), middle adolescents (14–16 years old), and young adults (20–25 years old). Study 2 examined the development of ambiguity aversion depending on the ambiguity level in middle adolescence compared with adults. These two studies revealed that only early adolescents did not demonstrate ambiguity aversion. In contrast, middle adolescents and adults showed strong ambiguity aversion irrespective of ambiguity level. These findings support the idea that the period of young adolescence could be the start of ambiguity aversion development, although this tendency to avoid ambiguous options is already developed in middle adolescence. This finding might have important public health implications and suggests that prevention campaigns should consider early adolescence to be a particularly vulnerable age group for risky behaviors.

Social influence in adolescence as a double-edged sword

Social learning is fundamental to human development, helping individuals adapt to changing circumstances and cooperate in groups. During the formative years of adolescence, the social environment shapes people's socio-cognitive skills needed in adulthood. Although peer influence among adolescents is traditionally associated with risky and unruly conduct, with long-term negative effects on educational, economic and health outcomes, recent findings suggest that peers may also have a positive impact. Here, we present a series of experiments with 10-20-year-olds (n = 146) showing that positive and negative peer effects reflect a domain-general factor of social information use which declines during adolescence. Exposure to disobedient peers provoked rule breaking, and selfish peers reduced prosocial behaviour, particularly in early adolescence. However, compliant peers also promoted rule compliance and fair peers increased prosociality. A belief formation task further revealed that younger adolescents tend to assimilate social information, while older adolescents prioritize personal views. Our results highlight early adolescence as a key window for peer-based interventions to improve developmental trajectories.

Uncertainty about others' trustworthiness increases during adolescence and guides social information sampling

Adolescence is a key life phase for developing well-adjusted social behaviour. An essential component of well-adjusted social behaviour is the ability to update our beliefs about the trustworthiness of others based on gathered information. Here, we examined how adolescents (n = 157, 10-24 years) sequentially sampled information about the trustworthiness of peers and how they used this information to update their beliefs about others' trustworthiness. Our Bayesian computational modelling approach revealed an adolescence-emergent increase in uncertainty of prior beliefs about others' trustworthiness. As a consequence, early to mid-adolescents (ages 10-16) gradually relied less on their prior beliefs and more on the gathered evidence when deciding to sample more information, and when deciding to trust. We propose that these age-related differences could be adaptive to the rapidly changing social environment of early and mid-adolescents. Together, these findings contribute to the understanding of adolescent social development by revealing adolescent-emergent flexibility in prior beliefs about others that drives adolescents' information sampling and trust decisions.

Decision neuroscience and neuroeconomics: Recent progress and ongoing challenges

In the past decade, decision neuroscience and neuroeconomics have developed many new insights in the study of decision making. This review provides an overarching update on how the field has advanced in this time period. Although our initial review a decade ago outlined several theoretical, conceptual, methodological, empirical, and practical challenges, there has only been limited progress in resolving these challenges. We summarize significant trends in decision neuroscience through the lens of the challenges outlined for the field and review examples where the field has had significant, direct, and applicable impacts across economics and psychology. First, we review progress on topics including reward learning, explore-exploit decisions, risk and ambiguity, intertemporal choice, and valuation. Next, we assess the impacts of emotion, social rewards, and social context on decision making. Then, we follow up with how individual differences impact choices and new exciting developments in the prediction and neuroforecasting of future decisions. Finally, we consider how trends in decision-neuroscience research reflect progress toward resolving past challenges, discuss new and exciting applications of recent research, and identify new challenges for the field. This article is categorized under: Psychology > Reasoning and Decision Making Psychology > Emotion and Motivation.

Impaired learning to dissociate advantageous and disadvantageous risky choices in adolescents

Adolescence is characterized by a surge in maladaptive risk-taking behaviors, but whether and how this relates to developmental changes in experience-based learning is largely unknown. In this preregistered study, we addressed this issue using a novel task that allowed us to separate the learning-driven optimization of risky choice behavior over time from overall risk-taking tendencies. Adolescents (12-17 years old) learned to dissociate advantageous from disadvantageous risky choices less well than adults (20-35 years old), and this impairment was stronger in early than mid-late adolescents. Computational modeling revealed that adolescents' suboptimal performance was largely due to an inefficiency in core learning and choice processes. Specifically, adolescents used a simpler, suboptimal, expectation-updating process and a more stochastic choice policy. In addition, the modeling results suggested that adolescents, but not adults, overvalued the highest rewards. Finally, an exploratory latent-mixture model analysis indicated that a substantial proportion of the participants in each age group did not engage in experience-based learning but used a gambler's fallacy strategy, stressing the importance of analyzing individual differences. Our results help understand why adolescents tend to make more, and more persistent, maladaptive risky decisions than adults when the values of these decisions have to be learned from experience.

Information about others' choices selectively alters risk tolerance and medial prefrontal cortex activation across adolescence and young adulthood

Adolescence is associated with major changes in the cognitive, emotional and social domains. One domain in which these processes intersect is decision-making. Previous research has shown that individuals' attitudes towards risk and ambiguity shape their decision-making, and information about others' choices can influence individuals' decisions. However, it is currently unknown how information about others' choices influences risk and ambiguity attitudes separately, and the degree to which others' choices shape decision-making differentially across development from adolescence to young adulthood. The current study used a computational modeling framework to test how information about others' choices influences these attitudes. Participants, aged 14-22 years, made a series of risky and ambiguous choices while undergoing fMRI scanning. On some trials, they viewed risky or safe choices of others. Results showed that participants aligned their choices toward the choice preferences of others. Moreover, the tendency to align choices was expressed in changes in risk attitude, but not ambiguity attitude. The change in risk attitude was positively related to neural activation in the medial prefrontal cortex. Results did not show age related differences in behavior and corresponding neural activation, indicating that the manner in which adolescents are influenced by peers is not ubiquitous but rather, is highly context-dependent.

Adolescent Decision-Making Under Risk: Neural Correlates and Sex Differences

An increased propensity for risk taking is a hallmark of adolescent behavior with significant health and social consequences. Here, we elucidated cortical and subcortical regions associated with risky and risk-averse decisions and outcome evaluation using the Balloon Analog Risk Task in a large sample of adolescents (n = 256, 56% female, age 14 ± 0.6), including the level of risk as a parametric modulator. We also identified sex differences in neural activity. Risky decisions engaged regions that are parts of the salience, dorsal attention, and frontoparietal networks, but only the insula was sensitive to increasing risks in parametric analyses. During risk-averse decisions, the same networks covaried with parametric levels of risk. The dorsal striatum was engaged by both risky and risk-averse decisions, but was not sensitive to escalating risk. Negative-outcome processing showed greater activations than positive-outcome processing. Insula, lateral orbitofrontal cortex, middle, rostral, and superior frontal areas, rostral and caudal anterior cingulate cortex were activated only by negative outcomes, with a subset of regions associated with negative outcomes showing greater activation in females. Taken together, these results suggest that safe decisions are predicted by more accurate neural representation of increasing risk levels, whereas reward-related processes play a relatively minor role.

The Dark Factor of Personality and Risk-Taking

Aversive personality traits have been linked to risk-taking across various domains. Herein, we investigated whether the common core of aversive traits, the Dark Factor of Personality (D), is related to risk-taking. Whereas the conceptualizations of D (common core of aversive traits) and risk-taking (not inherently socially and/or ethically aversive) do not necessarily imply an association, several theoretical considerations do suggest a positive relation between the constructs. In three studies (overall n = 689), we linked D to various self-report measures of risk-taking (Studies 1 and 2), as well as to a behavioral risk-taking task (Study 3). Overall, D was positively (although not always statistically significantly) related to self-reported risk-taking in terms of financial, health-related, and recreational risk-taking, fearlessness, novelty sensation seeking, intensity sensation seeking, and drug use. However, we did not find an association between D and behavioral risk-taking. Our findings provide insights into the relation between aversive personality and risk-taking, but also point to inconsistencies depending on the specific nature of risk-taking studied.

Problematic social media use is associated with the evaluation of both risk and ambiguity during decision making

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

People can engage in excessive, maladaptive use of social media platforms. This problematic social media use mirrors substance use disorders with regard to symptoms and certain behavioral situations. For example, individuals with substance use disorders demonstrate aberrations in risk evaluations during decision making, and initial research on problematic social media use has revealed similar findings. However, these results concerning problematic social media use have been clouded by tasks that involve learning and that lack a clear demarcation between risky and ambiguous decision making. Therefore, we set out to specifically determine the relationship between problematic social media use and decision making under both risk and ambiguity, in the absence of learning.

METHODS

We assessed each participant's (N = 90) self-reported level of problematic social media use. We then had them perform the wheel of fortune task, which has participants make choices between a sure option or either a risky or ambiguous gamble. In this way, the task isolates decisions made under risk and ambiguity, and avoids trial-to-trial learning. Results: We found that the greater an individual's problematic social media use, the more often that individual choses high-risk gambles or ambiguous gambles, regardless of the degree of ambiguity.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that greater problematic social media use is related to a greater affinity for high-risk situations and overall ambiguity. These findings have implications for the field, specifically clarifying and extending the extant literature, as well as providing future avenues for research.

Peers' Choices Influence Adolescent Risk-taking Especially When Explicit Risk Information is Lacking

This study examines the impact of peers' previous cautious versus risky choices on adolescents' risk-taking depending on the level of information about the risk. Adolescents completed an adaptation of the BART that manipulated social influence (cautious and risky) and risk information (i.e., informed, noninformed). Results showed that social influence impacts adolescents' decisions on the noninformed BART but not on the informed BART. In the noninformed BART, the peers' cautious choices strongly decreased risk-taking and led to greater performance. The peers' risky choices increase adolescents' risk-taking, but this effect is limited to situations involving minimal risk. Thus social experience may be a specific social context that represents a valuable source of information during adolescence, especially in situations with high uncertainty.

Ventral Striatal Activation During Reward Anticipation of Different Reward Probabilities in Adolescents and Adults

Adolescence has been linked to an enhanced tolerance of uncertainty and risky behavior and is possibly connected to an increased response toward rewards. However, previous research has produced inconsistent findings. To investigate whether these findings are due to different reward probabilities used in the experimental design, we extended a monetary incentive delay (MID) task by including three different reward probabilities. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, 25 healthy adolescents and 22 adults were studied during anticipation of rewards in the VS. Differently colored cue stimuli indicated either a monetary or verbal trial and symbolized different reward probabilities, to which the participants were blinded. Results demonstrated faster reaction times for lower reward probabilities (33%) in both age groups. Adolescents were slower through all conditions and had less activation on a neural level. Imaging results showed a three-way interaction between age group x condition x reward probability with differences in percent signal change between adolescents and adults for the high reward probabilities (66%, 88%) while adolescents demonstrated differences for the lowest (33%). Therefore, previous inconsistent findings could be due to different reward probabilities, which makes examining these crucial for a better understanding of adolescent and adult behavior.

Brain and Behavior Correlates of Risk Taking in Pediatric Anxiety Disorders

Avoidant behavior is a defining feature of pediatric anxiety disorders. Although prior research has examined it from the perspective of early information processing events, there has been relatively less consideration of the processes by which anxious youth make avoidant decisions and how these choices are reinforced over time. Studies of risk taking are valuable in this regard because they consider how individuals identify the pros and cons of their choices, how they weigh potential gains and losses and estimate their respective probabilities, and how they tolerate the uncertainty intrinsic to any decision. In this review, we place risk taking within existing models of information processing in pediatric anxiety disorders and highlight the particular value of this construct for informing models of developmental psychopathology and individual differences in outcome over time. We review existing behavioral and neurobiological studies of risk taking in anxious youth and conclude by identifying directions for future research.

Predictors of Positive and Negative Risk-Taking in Adolescents and Young Adults: Similarities and Differences

Although the risk-taking can potentially result in positive and negative outcomes, most of the researchers focused on its negative, not positive manifestations. Recently, Duell and Steinberg proposed a framework that clarifies the features of positive risk-taking. Research comparing positive and negative risk-taking increased and new measures have been developed. The presented study was designed to examine how the construct of positive risk-taking differs or overlaps with its opposite, negative risk-taking, and whether both are predicted by the same or different factors. Two hundred fifty eight (258) adolescents and young adults (aged 16-29) participated in the study. We tested self-reported sensitivity to reward and punishment, self-control, tolerance to ambiguity, trait anxiety, and gender as possible predictors of positive and negative risk-taking. We also referred both types of risk-taking to domain-specific risk-taking. We found that positive risk-taking is driven by sensitivity to reward and tolerance to ambiguity, and occurs especially in the social domain. Negative risk-taking is driven by gender, sensitivity to reward and (low) sensitivity to punishment, and occurs in all domains except social. Results indicate that positive risk-taking is chosen for exploration and personal growth by people who look for rewards in the social world and is done in a socially accepted way. Negative risk-taking is chosen by people who are not discouraged by severe negative effects and look for rewards outside existing norms.

Social norms in adolescent risk engagement and recommendation

Social influence is an important determinant of adolescent risk-taking, but little is known about how social norms contribute to adolescents' tendency to recommend and engage in risky behaviours. Using the Adolescent Risk-taking Questionnaire, we assessed subjects' (n = 198, age = 10-26) propensity to engage in and recommend risk-taking as well as their perception of risk norms. Adolescents recommended risk-taking more often compared to children and young adults. Perceived social norms were the most important factor predicting engagement in risky behaviours, and adolescents perceived risk-taking to be more normative than children or adults. Our findings highlight two mechanisms that contribute to adolescent risk-taking, active recommendation and perceived social norms. On this basis, we discuss potential means to attenuate excessive adolescent risk-taking.

Teenagers and Precision Psychiatry: A Window of Opportunity

OBJECTIVE

Precision medicine raises hope for translating genetic-based knowledge about psychiatric risks into mental health benefits by motivating health-related, risk-reducing behaviors. Teenagers (ages 14-17) are an important age-group to engage in preventive efforts but, their views about psychiatric genetics are understudied.

METHOD

An online survey with a nationally representative sample of teenagers (n = 417) was conducted. Participants were randomly assigned to receive 1 of 2 handouts, 1 emphasizing the genetic underpinnings of psychiatric conditions; the other agency-oriented and focusing on gene-environment interactions. Survey questions queried their views about behavioral changes in response to psychiatric genetic risk information and expressed willingness to undertake them. Participants' decision-making characteristics (i.e., self-efficacy, empowerment, intolerance of uncertainty, and sensation-seeking) were assessed at baseline.

RESULTS

Teenagers strongly valued the information provided and its potential usefulness for their mental health. Information about psychiatric genetics alone impacted views about the causes of mental illness. Contrary to our hypothesis, the type of handout did not impact participants' expressed willingness to make behavioral changes to reduce their risk of developing a psychiatric condition, but their sense of empowerment played a key role in their responses.

CONCLUSION

Educating teenagers about gene-environment interactions may help facilitate the translational efforts of precision psychiatry. Research with teenagers across racial/ethnic groups, especially those with family histories, is needed to better understand the factors that impact teenagers' empowerment in psychiatric genomic settings and to identify measures, including the best enablers of empowerment (e.g., educators, parents), which would allow them to reap the benefits of precision psychiatry.

Valuation of peers' safe choices is associated with substance-naïveté in adolescents

Social influences on decision-making are particularly pronounced during adolescence and have both protective and detrimental effects. To evaluate how responsiveness to social signals may be linked to substance use in adolescents, we used functional neuroimaging and a gambling task in which adolescents who have and have not used substances (substance-exposed and substance-naïve, respectively) made choices alone and after observing peers' decisions. Using quantitative model-based analyses, we identify behavioral and neural evidence that observing others' safe choices increases the subjective value and selection of safe options for substance-naïve relative to substance-exposed adolescents. Moreover, the effects of observing others' risky choices do not vary by substance exposure. These results provide neurobehavioral evidence for a role of positive peers (here, those who make safer choices) in guiding adolescent real-world risky decision-making.

Threat or thrill? the neural mechanisms underlying the development of anxiety and risk taking in adolescence

Anxiety is common in adolescence and has been linked to a plethora of negative outcomes across development. While previous studies of anxiety have focused on threat sensitivity, less work has considered the concurrent development of threat- and reward-related neural circuitry and how these circuits interact and compete during puberty to influence typical adolescent behaviors such as increased risk taking and exploration. The current review integrates relevant findings from clinical and developmental neuroimaging studies to paint a multidimensional picture of adolescent-onset anxiety against the backdrop of typical adolescent development. Ultimately, this paper argues that longitudinal neuroimaging studies tracking approach and avoidance motivations across development are needed to fully understand the mechanisms underlying the development of anxiety in adolescence and to identify and provide effective interventions for at-risk youth.

Uncertainty-driven regulation of learning and exploration in adolescents: A computational account

Healthy adults flexibly adapt their learning strategies to ongoing changes in uncertainty, a key feature of adaptive behaviour. However, the developmental trajectory of this ability is yet unknown, as developmental studies have not incorporated trial-to-trial variation in uncertainty in their analyses or models. To address this issue, we compared adolescents’ and adults’ trial-to-trial dynamics of uncertainty, learning rate, and exploration in two tasks that assess learning in noisy but otherwise stable environments. In an estimation task—which provides direct indices of trial-specific learning rate—both age groups reduced their learning rate over time, as self-reported uncertainty decreased. Accordingly, the estimation data in both groups was better explained by a Bayesian model with dynamic learning rate (Kalman filter) than by conventional reinforcement-learning models. Furthermore, adolescents’ learning rates asymptoted at a higher level, reflecting an over-weighting of the most recent outcome, and the estimated Kalman-filter parameters suggested that this was due to an overestimation of environmental volatility. In a choice task, both age groups became more likely to choose the higher-valued option over time, but this increase in choice accuracy was smaller in the adolescents. In contrast to the estimation task, we found no evidence for a Bayesian expectation-updating process in the choice task, suggesting that estimation and choice tasks engage different learning processes. However, our modeling results of the choice task suggested that both age groups reduced their degree of exploration over time, and that the adolescents explored overall more than the adults. Finally, age-related differences in exploration parameters from fits to the choice data were mediated by participants’ volatility parameter from fits to the estimation data. Together, these results suggest that adolescents overestimate the rate of environmental change, resulting in elevated learning rates and increased exploration, which may help understand developmental changes in learning and decision-making.

To successfully learn the value of stimuli and actions, people should take into account their current (un)certainty about these values: Learning rates and exploration should be high when one’s value estimates are highly uncertain (in the beginning of learning), and decrease over time as evidence accumulates and uncertainty decreases. Recent studies have shown that healthy adults flexibly adapt their learning strategies based on ongoing changes in uncertainty, consistent with normative learning. However, the development of this ability prior to adulthood is yet unknown, as developmental learning studies have not considered trial-to-trial changes in uncertainty. Here, we show that adolescents, as compared to adults, showed a smaller decrease in both learning rate and exploration over time. Computational modeling revealed that both of these effects were due to adolescents overestimating the amount of environmental volatility, which made them more sensitive to recent relative to older evidence. The overestimation of volatility during adolescence may represent the rapidly changing environmental demands during this developmental period, and can help understand the surge in real-life risk taking and exploratory behaviours characteristic of adolescents.

Neural tracking of subjective value under riskand ambiguity in adolescence

Although many neuroimaging studies on adolescent risk taking have focused on brain activation during outcome valuation, less attention has been paid to the neural correlates of choice valuation. Subjective choice valuation may be particularly influenced by whether a choice presents risk (known probabilities) or ambiguity (unknown probabilities), which has rarely been studied in developmental samples. Therefore, we examined the neural tracking of subjective value during choice under risk and ambiguity in a large sample of adolescents (N = 188, 12–22 years). Specifically, we investigated which brain regions tracked subjective value coding under risk and ambiguity. A model-based approach to estimate individuals’ risk and ambiguity attitudes showed prominent variation in individuals’ aversions to risk and ambiguity. Furthermore, participants subjectively experienced the ambiguous options as being riskier than the risky options. Subjective value tracking under risk was coded by activation in ventral striatum and superior parietal cortex. Subjective value tracking under ambiguity was coded by dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) and superior temporal gyrus activation. Finally, overlapping activation in the dorsomedial PFC was observed for subjective value under both conditions. Overall, this is the first study to chart brain activation patterns for subjective choice valuation under risk and ambiguity in an adolescent sample, which shows that the building blocks for risk and ambiguity processing are already present in early adolescence. Finally, we highlight the potential of combining behavioral modeling with fMRI for investigating choice valuation in adolescence, which may ultimately aid in understanding who takes risks and why.

Computational Markers of Risky Decision-making for Identification of Temporal Windows of Vulnerability to Opioid Use in a Real-world Clinical Setting

IMPORTANCE

Opioid addiction is a major public health problem. Despite availability of evidence-based treatments, relapse and dropout are common outcomes. Efforts aimed at identifying reuse risk and gaining more precise understanding of the mechanisms conferring reuse vulnerability are needed.

OBJECTIVE

To use tools from computational psychiatry and decision neuroscience to identify changes in decision-making processes preceding opioid reuse.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A cohort of individuals with opioid use disorder were studied longitudinally at a community-based treatment setting for up to 7 months (1-15 sessions per person). At each session, patients completed a risky decision-making task amenable to computational modeling and standard clinical assessments. Time-lagged mixed-effects logistic regression analyses were used to assess the likelihood of opioid use between sessions (t to t + 1; within the subsequent 1-4 weeks) from data acquired at the current session (t). A cohort of control participants completed similar procedures (1-5 sessions per person), serving both as a baseline comparison group and an independent sample in which to assess measurement test-retest reliability. Data were analyzed between January 1, 2018, and September 5, 2019.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Two individual model-based behavioral markers were derived from the task completed at each session, capturing a participant's current tolerance of known risks and ambiguity (partially unknown risks). Current anxiety, craving, withdrawal, and nonadherence were assessed via interview and clinic records. Opioid use was ascertained from random urine toxicology tests and self-reports.

RESULTS

Seventy patients (mean [SE] age, 44.7 [1.3] years; 12 women and 58 men [82.9% male]) and 55 control participants (mean [SE] age, 42.4 [1.5] years; 13 women and 42 men [76.4% male]) were included. Of the 552 sessions completed with patients (mean [SE], 7.89 [0.59] sessions per person), 252 (45.7%) directly preceded opioid use events (mean [SE], 3.60 [0.44] sessions per person). From the task parameters, only ambiguity tolerance was significantly associated with increased odds of prospective opioid use (adjusted odds ratio, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.07-1.76]), indicating patients were more tolerant specifically of ambiguous risks prior to these use events. The association of ambiguity tolerance with prospective use was independent of established clinical factors (adjusted odds ratio, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.01-1.65]; P = .04), such that a model combining these factors explained more variance in reuse risk. No significant differences in ambiguity tolerance were observed between patients and control participants, who completed 197 sessions (mean [SE], 3.58 [0.21] sessions per person); however, patients were more tolerant of known risks (B = 0.56 [95% CI, 0.05-1.07]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Computational approaches can provide mechanistic insights about the cognitive factors underlying opioid reuse vulnerability and may hold promise for clinical use.

Social Influence in Adolescent Decision-Making: A Formal Framework

Adolescence is a period of life during which peers play a pivotal role in decision-making. The narrative of social influence during adolescence often revolves around risky and maladaptive decisions, like driving under the influence, and using illegal substances (Steinberg, 2005). However, research has also shown that social influence can lead to increased prosocial behaviors (Van Hoorn et al., 2017) and a reduction in risk-taking (Braams et al., 2019). While many studies support the notion that adolescents are more sensitive to peer influence than children or adults, the developmental processes that underlie this sensitivity remain poorly understood. We argue that one important reason for this lack of understanding is the absence of precisely formulated models. To make a first step toward formal models of social influence during adolescence, we first identify three prominent verbal models of social influence in the literature: (1) social motivation, (2) reward sensitivity, and (3) distraction. We then illustrate how these can be translated into formal models, and how such formal models can inform experimental design and help identify developmental processes. Finally, by applying our formal models to existing datasets, we demonstrate the usefulness of formalization by synthesizing different studies with seemingly disparate results. We conclude with a discussion on how formal modeling can be utilized to better investigate the development of peer influence in adolescence.

Cognitive ability and risk aversion: A systematic review and meta analysis

Are highly intelligent people less risk averse? Over the last two decades scholars have argued the existence of a negative relationship between cognitive ability and risk aversion. Although numerous studies support this, the link between cognitive ability and risk aversion has not been found consistently. To shed new light on this topic, a systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted. A total of 97 studies were identified and included for meta-analysis in the domain of gains (N=90, 723), 41 in the mixed domain (N=50, 936), and 12 in the domain of losses (N=4, 544). Results indicate that there exists a weak, but significant negative relationship between cognitive ability and risk aversion in the domain of gains. However, no relationship was observed in the mixed domain or in the domain of losses. Several meta-regressions were performed to investigate the influence of moderator variables. None of the moderator variables were found to consistently influence the relationship between cognitive ability and risk aversion across the domain of gains, mixed and losses. Moreover, no significant difference was observed between males and females across all three domains. In conclusion, this systematic review and meta-analysis provides new evidence that the relationship between cognitive ability and risk aversion is domain specific and not as strong as suggested by some previous studies.

Developmental perspectives on risky and impulsive choice

Epidemiological data suggest that risk taking in the real world increases from childhood into adolescence and declines into adulthood. However, developmental patterns of behaviour in laboratory assays of risk taking and impulsive choice are inconsistent. In this article, we review a growing literature using behavioural economic approaches to understand developmental changes in risk taking and impulsivity. We present findings that have begun to elucidate both the cognitive and neural processes that contribute to risky and impulsive choice, as well as how age-related changes in these neurocognitive processes give rise to shifts in choice behaviour. We highlight how variability in task parameters can be used to identify specific aspects of decision contexts that may differentially influence risky and impulsive choice behaviour across development. This article is part of the theme issue 'Risk taking and impulsive behaviour: fundamental discoveries, theoretical perspectives and clinical implications'.

The effect of active and passive peer encouragement on adolescent risk-taking

INTRODUCTION

In this experiment, we investigated the effect of active (pressure) and passive (imitation) peer encouragement on adolescent risk-taking and assessed gender differences.

METHOD

The participants performed the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) with the same-sex e-confederate. The experiment consisted of a 2 (passive encouragement: no/yes updates about the number of pumps of the e-confederate) by 2 (active encouragement: no/yes messages received from the e-confederate) by 2 (gender: girls/boys) by 3 (time: baseline/first message or update/second message or update) mixed design. The participants comprised 138 Dutch secondary-school students aged 11-19 years old of whom 46% boys. They were assigned to one of the four conditions: 1. neutral (e-confederate present), 2. passive (two updates received), 3. active (two messages received), or 4. combined (two updates and two messages received).

RESULTS

Only a significant main effect of passive peer encouragement and a significant interaction effect of passive peer encouragement*time were shown. The participants exposed to passive peer encouragement took significantly more risk compared to other participants. Moreover, adolescent risk-taking significantly increased after the first and second update compared to baseline (no update).

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that adolescents are more likely to engage in risk-taking because of passive rather than active peer encouragement. Thus, communication through text-based messages in which young people provide information solely about their own risk-taking may be an important aim of prevention and intervention programs.

Computational neuroscience across the lifespan: Promises and pitfalls

In recent years, the application of computational modeling in studies on age-related changes in decision making and learning has gained in popularity. One advantage of computational models is that they provide access to latent variables that cannot be directly observed from behavior. In combination with experimental manipulations, these latent variables can help to test hypotheses about age-related changes in behavioral and neurobiological measures at a level of specificity that is not achievable with descriptive analysis approaches alone. This level of specificity can in turn be beneficial to establish the identity of the corresponding behavioral and neurobiological mechanisms. In this paper, we will illustrate applications of computational methods using examples of lifespan research on risk taking, strategy selection and reinforcement learning. We will elaborate on problems that can occur when computational neuroscience methods are applied to data of different age groups. Finally, we will discuss potential targets for future applications and outline general shortcomings of computational neuroscience methods for research on human lifespan development.

Developmental patterns of change in the influence of safe and risky peer choices on risky decision-making

Adolescents take more risks when peers monitor their behavior. However, it is largely unknown how different types of peer influence affect adolescent decision-making. In this study, we investigate how information about previous choices of peers differentially influences decision-making in adolescence and young adulthood. Participants (N = 99, age range 12-22) completed an economic choice task in which choice options were systematically varied on levels of risk and ambiguity. On each trial, participants selected between a safer choice (low variability in outcome) and a riskier choice (high variability in outcome). Participants made choices in three conditions: a solo condition in which they made choices with no additional information, a social condition in which they saw choices of supposed peers, and a computer condition in which they saw choices of a computer. Results showed that participants' choices conform to the choices made by the peers, but not a computer. Furthermore, when peers chose the safe option, late adolescents were especially likely to make a safe choice. Conversely, when the peer made a risky choice, late adolescents were least likely to follow choices made by the peer. We did not find evidence for differential influence of social information on decisions depending on their level of risk and ambiguity. These results show that information about previous decisions of peers are a powerful modifier for behavior and that the effect of peers on adolescents' decisions is less ubiquitous and more specific than previously assumed.

Information about peer choices shapes human risky decision-making

Humans frequently make choices that involve risk for health and well-being. At the same time, information about others’ choices is omnipresent due to new forms of social media and information technology. However, while past research has shown that peers can exert a strong influence on such risky choices, understanding how information about risky decisions of others affects one’s own risky decisions is still lacking. We therefore developed a behavioral task to measure how information about peer choices affects risky decision-making and call it the social Balloon Analogue Risk Task (sBART). We tested this novel paradigm in a sample of 52 college young adults. Here we show that risky decisions were influenced in the direction of the perceived choices of others – riskier choices of others led to riskier behavior whereas safer choices of others led to less risky behavior. These findings indicate that information about peer choices is sufficient to shape one’s own risky behavior.

Individual differences in risk-taking tendencies modulate the neural processing of risky and ambiguous decision-making in adolescence

Although many neuroimaging studies have investigated adolescent risk taking, few studies have dissociated between decision-making under risk (known probabilities) and ambiguity (unknown probabilities). Furthermore, which brain regions are sensitive to individual differences in task-related and self-reported risk taking remains elusive. We presented 198 adolescents (11-24 years, an age-range in which individual differences in risk taking are prominent) with an fMRI paradigm that separated decision-making (choosing to gamble or not) and reward outcome processing (gains, no gains) under risky and ambiguous conditions, and related this to task-related and self-reported risk taking. We observed distinct neural mechanisms underlying risky and ambiguous gambling, with risk more prominently associated with activation in parietal cortex, and ambiguity more prominently with dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (PFC), as well as medial PFC during outcome processing. Individual differences in task-related risk taking were positively associated with ventral striatum activation in the decision phase, specifically for risk, and negatively associated with insula and dorsomedial PFC activation, specifically for ambiguity. Moreover, dorsolateral PFC activation in the outcome phase seemed a prominent marker for individual differences in task-related risk taking under ambiguity as well as self-reported daily-life risk taking, in which greater risk taking was associated with reduced activation in dorsolateral PFC. Together, this study demonstrates the importance of considering multiple risk-taking measures, and contextual moderators, in understanding the neural mechanisms underlying adolescent risk taking.

The Influences of Described and Experienced Information on Adolescent Risky Decision Making

Adolescents are known to take more risks than adults, which can be harmful to their health and well-being. However, despite age differences in real-world risk taking, laboratory risk-taking paradigms often do not evince these developmental patterns. Recent findings in the literature suggest that this inconsistency may be due in part to differences between how adolescents process information about risk when it is described (e.g., in a description-based classroom intervention) versus when it is experienced (e.g., when a teenager experiences the outcome of a risky choice). The present review considers areas of research that can inform approaches to intervention by deepening our understanding of risk taking in described or experienced contexts. We examine the literature on the description-experience gap, which has generally been limited to studies of adult samples, but which highlights differential decision making when risk information is described versus experienced. Informed by this work, we then explore the developmental literature comparing adolescent to adult decision making, and consider whether inconsistencies in age-related findings might be explained by distinguishing between studies in which participants learn about decision outcomes through experience versus description. In light of evidence that studies using experience-based tasks more often show age differences in risk taking, we consider the implications of this pattern, and argue that experience-based tasks may be more ecologically valid measures of adolescent risky decision making, in part due to the heightened affective nature of these tasks. Finally, we propose a model to integrate our findings with theories of adolescent risk-taking, and discuss implications for risk-reduction messaging.

Flexing dual-systems models: How variable cognitive control in children informs our understanding of risk-taking across development

Prevailing models of the development of decision-making propose that peak risk-taking occurs in adolescence due to a neural imbalance between two processes: gradual, linearly developing cognitive control and rapid, non-linearly developing reward-processing. Though many studies have found neural evidence supporting this dual-systems imbalance model, its behavioral predictions have been surprisingly difficult to document. Most laboratory studies have not found adolescents to exhibit greater risk-taking than children, and public health data show everyday risk-taking to peak in late adolescence/early adulthood. Moreover, when adolescents are provided detailed information about decision options and consequences, they evince similar behavior to adults. Such findings point to a critical feature of the development of decision-making that is missed by imbalance models. Specifically, the engagement of cognitive control is context dependent, such that cognitive control and therefore advantageous decision-making increases when available information is high and decreases when available information is low. Furthermore, the context dependence of cognitive control varies across development, such that increased information availability benefits children more than adolescents, who benefit more than adults. This review advances a flexible dual-systems model that is only imbalanced under certain conditions; explains disparities between neural, behavioral, and public health findings; and provides testable hypotheses for future research.