Calculating the Contribution of Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Epidemics to Increasing HIV Incidence: Treatment Implications

Model of vaccine efficacy against HSV-2 superinfection of HSV-1 seropositive mice demonstrates protection by antibodies mediating cellular cytotoxicity

A majority of the world’s population is infected with HSV-1, highlighting the need for vaccines that are effective in HSV-1-seropositive hosts. We established a superinfection model by infecting mice intranasally with a sublethal dose of HSV-1, which results in high rates of seropositive, latently infected mice susceptible to HSV-2 superinfection. Sublethal HSV-1 induced a predominantly neutralizing antibody response. Vaccination of HSV-1-seropositive mice with recombinant adjuvanted glycoprotein D (rgD-2) failed to significantly boost HSV total or neutralizing antibody responses and provided no significant increased protection against HSV-2 superinfection compared to control-vaccinated HSV-1-seropositive mice. In contrast, immunization with a single-cycle virus deleted in gD (ΔgD-2) significantly boosted total HSV-specific antibody titers and elicited new antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity responses, providing complete protection from death following HSV-2 superinfection. This model recapitulates clinical responses to natural infection and the rgD-2 vaccine trial outcomes and suggests that ΔgD-2 may prove protective in HSV-1-seropositive hosts.

Interaction between herpesvirus entry mediator and HSV-2 glycoproteins mediates HIV-1 entry of HSV-2-infected epithelial cells

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) increases human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) acquisition and transmission via unclear mechanisms. Herpesvirus entry mediator (HVEM), an HSV-2 entry receptor, is highly expressed on HIV-1 target cells (CD4+ T cells) and may be incorporated into HIV-1 virions, while HSV-2 glycoproteins can be present on the infected cell surface. Since HVEM-gD interaction together with gB/gH/gL is essential for HSV-2 entry, HVEM-bearing HIV-1 (HIV-1/HVEM) may enter HSV-2-infected cells through such interactions. To test this hypothesis, we first confirmed the presence of HVEM on HIV-1 virions and glycoproteins on the HSV-2-infected cell surface. Additional studies showed that HIV-1/HVEM bound to the HSV-2-infected cell surface in an HSV-2 infection-time-dependent manner via HVEM-gD interaction. HIV-1/HVEM entry of HSV-2-infected cells was dependent on HVEM-gD interaction and the presence of gB/gH/gL, and was inhibited by azidothymidine. Furthermore, peripheral blood mononuclear cell-derived HIV-1 infected HSV-2-infected primary foreskin epithelial cells and the infection was inhibited by anti-HVEM/gD antibodies. Together, our results indicate that HIV-1 produced from CD4+ T cells bears HSV-2 receptor HVEM and can bind to and enter HSV-2-infected epithelial cells depending on HVEM-gD interaction and the presence of gB/gH/gL. Our findings provide a potential new mechanism underlying HSV-2 infection-enhanced HIV-1 mucosal transmission and may shed light on HIV-1 prevention.

A model for the coupled disease dynamics of HIV and HSV-2 with mixing among and between genders

Evidence indicates that those with genital herpes (HSV-2) infections have greater risks of infection by HIV; and, once co-infected, are more likely to transmit HIV. To better understand the interactions between HIV and HSV-2, we construct a mathematical model that describes the joint dynamics. A new feature of this model is the inclusion of both heterosexual and homosexual interactions. We derive and interpret the basic and invasion reproduction numbers for HIV and HSV-2 using the approach of next-generation matrices. We then perform scenario analyses and conduct a sensitivity analysis to investigate the impact of the model parameters on the reproduction numbers and disease prevalences. We conclude that homosexual transmission drastically changes the disease prevalences; hence, it is important to account for this interaction as models that ignore homosexuality may greatly underestimate the disease burden.

A multi-targeted drug candidate with dual anti-HIV and anti-HSV activity

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is often accompanied by infection with other pathogens, in particular herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2). The resulting coinfection is involved in a vicious circle of mutual facilitations. Therefore, an important task is to develop a compound that is highly potent against both viruses to suppress their transmission and replication. Here, we report on the discovery of such a compound, designated PMEO-DAPym. We compared its properties with those of the structurally related and clinically used acyclic nucleoside phosphonates (ANPs) tenofovir and adefovir. We demonstrated the potent anti-HIV and -HSV activity of this drug in a diverse set of clinically relevant in vitro, ex vivo, and in vivo systems including (i) CD4⁺ T-lymphocyte (CEM) cell cultures, (ii) embryonic lung (HEL) cell cultures, (iii) organotypic epithelial raft cultures of primary human keratinocytes (PHKs), (iv) primary human monocyte/macrophage (M/M) cell cultures, (v) human ex vivo lymphoid tissue, and (vi) athymic nude mice. Upon conversion to its diphosphate metabolite, PMEO-DAPym markedly inhibits both HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) and HSV DNA polymerase. However, in striking contrast to tenofovir and adefovir, it also acts as an efficient immunomodulator, inducing β-chemokines in PBMC cultures, in particular the CCR5 agonists MIP-1β, MIP-1α and RANTES but not the CXCR4 agonist SDF-1, without the need to be intracellularly metabolized. Such specific β-chemokine upregulation required new mRNA synthesis. The upregulation of β-chemokines was shown to be associated with a pronounced downmodulation of the HIV-1 coreceptor CCR5 which may result in prevention of HIV entry. PMEO-DAPym belongs conceptually to a new class of efficient multitargeted antivirals for concomitant dual-viral (HSV/HIV) infection therapy through inhibition of virus-specific pathways (i.e. the viral polymerases) and HIV transmission prevention through interference with host pathways (i.e. CCR5 receptor down regulation).

To contain the HIV-1 epidemic, it is necessary to develop antivirals that prevent HIV-1 transmission. It is well known that HIV infection might be accompanied by other pathogens, which often are engaged with HIV-1 in a vicious circle of mutual facilitation. One of the most common of these pathogens is herpes simplex virus (HSV) type 2. Since there is an urgent need for a next generation antivirals that are multi-targeted, we can now report on the development of the first antiviral of this new generation that efficiently suppresses both HIV-1 and HSV-2. We found that the dual-targeted antiviral drug affects several targets for viral replication. It uniquely combines in one molecule three important abilities: (i) to efficiently suppress HSV-encoded DNA polymerase, (ii) to efficiently suppress HIV-1-encoded reverse transcriptase, and (iii) to stimulate secretion of CC-chemokines that downregulate the HIV-1 coreceptor CCR5. The compound suppresses both viruses in a wide-range of in vitro, ex vivo, and in vivo experimental models. The ability of one molecule to suppress HIV-1 and HSV-2 by combining direct activity against their two key enzymes and indirect immunomodulatory effects is unique in the antiviral field.

Modeling the synergy between HSV-2 and HIV and potential impact of HSV-2 therapy

Mounting evidence indicates that genital HSV-2 infection may increase susceptibility to HIV infection and that co-infection may increase infectiousness. Accordingly, antiviral treatment of people with HSV-2 may mitigate the incidence of HIV in populations where both pathogens occur. To better understand the epidemiological synergy between HIV and HSV-2, we formulate a deterministic compartmental model that describes the transmission dynamics of these pathogens. Unlike earlier models, ours incorporates gender and heterogeneous mixing between activity groups. We derive explicit expressions for the reproduction numbers of HSV-2 and HIV, as well as the invasion reproduction numbers via next generation matrices. A qualitative analysis of the system includes the local and global behavior of the model. Simulations reinforce these analytical results and demonstrate epidemiological synergy between HSV-2 and HIV. In particular, numerical results show that HSV-2 favors the invasion of HIV, may dramatically increase the peak as well as reducing the time-to-peak of HIV prevalence, and almost certainly has exacerbated HIV epidemics. The potential population-level impact of HSV-2 on HIV is demonstrated by calculating the fraction of HIV infections attributable to HSV-2 and the difference between HIV prevalence in the presence and absence of HSV-2. The potential impact of treating people with HSV-2 on HIV control is demonstrated by comparing HIV prevalence with and without HSV-2 therapy. Most importantly, we illustrate that the aforementioned aspects of the population dynamics can be significantly influenced by the sexual structure of the population.

The lantibiotic peptide labyrinthopeptin A1 demonstrates broad anti-HIV and anti-HSV activity with potential for microbicidal applications

Lantibiotics are peptides, produced by bacteria, that contain the noncanonical amino acid lanthionine and many of them exhibit antibacterial activities. The labyrinthopeptin A1 (LabyA1) is a prototype peptide of a novel class of carbacyclic lantibiotics. Here, we extensively evaluated its broad-spectrum activity against HIV and HSV in vitro, studied its mechanism of action and evaluated potential microbicidal applications. LabyA1 exhibited a consistent and broad anti-HIV activity (EC₅₀s: 0.70–3.3 µM) and anti-HSV activity (EC₅₀s: 0.29–2.8 µM) in cell cultures. LabyA1 also inhibited viral cell-cell transmission between persistently HIV-infected T cells and uninfected CD4⁺ T cells (EC₅₀∶2.5 µM) and inhibited the transmission of HIV captured by DC-SIGN⁺-cells to uninfected CD4⁺ T cells (EC₅₀∶4.1 µM). Time-of-drug addition studies revealed that LabyA1 acts as an entry inhibitor against HIV and HSV. Cellular and virus binding studies combined with SPR/FLIPR technology showed that LabyA1 interacted with the HIV envelope protein gp120, but not with the HIV cellular receptors. LabyA1 also demonstrated additive to synergistic effects in its anti-HIV-1 and anti-HSV-2 activity with anti(retro)viral drugs in dual combinations such as tenofovir, acyclovir, saquinavir, raltegravir and enfuvirtide. LabyA1 can be considered as a novel lead peptide as it had profound antiviral activity against HIV and HSV. Pre-treatment of PBMCs with LabyA1 neither increased the expression of the activation markers CD69 and CD25, nor enhanced HIV replication, nor significantly induced various inflammatory cytokines/chemokines. LabyA1 also did not affect the growth of vaginal Lactobacilli populations. Based on the lack of toxicity on the vaginal Lactobacillus strains and its synergistic/additive profile in combination with clinically approved anti(retro)virals, it deserves further attention as a potential microbicide candidate in the prevention of sexual transmitted diseases.

Algal lectins as potential HIV microbicide candidates

The development and use of topical microbicides potentially offers an additional strategy to reduce the spread of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Carbohydrate-binding agents (CBAs) that show specificity for high mannose carbohydrates on the surface of the heavily glycosylated envelope of HIV are endowed with potent anti-HIV activity. In fact, a number of algal lectins such as cyanovirin-N, microvirin, microcystis viridis lectin, scytovirin, Oscillatoria agardhii agglutinin and griffithsin are considered as potential microbicide candidates to prevent the sexual transmission of HIV through topical applications. They not only inhibit infection of cells by cell-free virus but they can also efficiently prevent virus transmission from virus-infected cells to uninfected CD4⁺ target T-lymphocytes and DC-SIGN-directed capture of HIV-1 and transmission to CD4⁺ T lymphocytes. This review focuses on the structural properties and carbohydrate specificity of these algal lectins, their antiviral activity against HIV and several other enveloped viruses, their safety profile and viral resistance patterns.

Topical tenofovir, a microbicide effective against HIV, inhibits herpes simplex virus-2 replication

The HIV reverse-transcriptase inhibitor, tenofovir, was recently formulated into a vaginal gel for use as a microbicide. In human trials, a 1% tenofovir gel inhibited HIV sexual transmission by 39% and, surprisingly, herpes simplex virus-2 (HSV-2) transmission by 51%. We demonstrate that the concentration achieved intravaginally with a 1% tenofovir topical gel has direct antiherpetic activity. Tenofovir inhibits the replication of HSV clinical isolates in human embryonic fibroblasts, keratinocytes, and organotypic epithelial 3D rafts, decreases HSV replication in human lymphoid and cervicovaginal tissues ex vivo, and delays HSV-induced lesions and death in topically treated HSV-infected mice. The active tenofovir metabolite inhibits HSV DNA-polymerase and HIV reverse-transcriptase. To exert dual antiviral effects, tenofovir requires topical administration to achieve a drug concentration higher than systemic levels achieved by oral treatment. These findings indicate that a single topical treatment, like tenofovir, can inhibit the transmission of HIV and its copathogens.

Mathematical models for the study of HIV spread and control amongst men who have sex with men

For a quarter of century, mathematical models have been used to study the spread and control of HIV amongst men who have sex with men (MSM). We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to the end of 2010 and reviewed this literature to summarise the methodologies used, key model developments, and the recommended strategies for HIV control amongst MSM. Of 742 studies identified, 127 studies met the inclusion criteria. Most studies employed deterministic modelling methods (80%). Over time we saw an increase in model complexity regarding antiretroviral therapy (ART), and a corresponding decrease in complexity regarding sexual behaviours. Formal estimation of model parameters was carried out in only a small proportion of the studies (22%) while model validation was considered by an even smaller proportion (17%), somewhat reducing confidence in the findings from the studies. Nonetheless, a number of common conclusions emerged, including (1) identification of the importance of assumptions regarding changes in infectivity and sexual contact rates on the impact of ART on HIV incidence, that subsequently led to empirical studies to gather these data, and (2) recommendation that multiple strategies would be required for effective HIV control amongst MSM. The role of mathematical models in studying epidemics is clear, and the lack of formal inference and validation highlights the need for further developments in this area. Improved methodologies for parameter estimation and systematic sensitivity analysis will help generate predictions that more fully express uncertainty, allowing better informed decision making in public health.

HIV-malaria co-infection: effects of malaria on the prevalence of HIV in East sub-Saharan Africa

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between malaria and HIV prevalence in East sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

Using large nationally representative samples of 19,735 sexually active adults from the 2003-04 HIV/AIDS indicator surveys conducted in Kenya, Malawi and Tanzania, and the atlas malaria project, we analysed the relationship between malaria and HIV prevalence adjusting for important socioeconomic and biological cofactors.

RESULTS

In adjusted models, individuals who live in areas with high Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR > 0.42) had increased estimated odds of being HIV positive than individuals who live in areas with low P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR ≤ 0.10) [men: estimated odds ratio (OR) 2.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.62-3.12; women: estimated OR 2.44, 95% CI 1.85-3.21].

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to report malaria as a risk factor of concurrent HIV infection at the population level. According to our results, individuals who live in areas with high P. falciparum parasite rate have about twice the risk of being HIV positive compared with individuals who live in areas with low P. falciparum parasite rate. Our work emphasizes the need for field studies focused on quantifying the interaction among parasitic infections and risk of HIV infection, and studies to explore the impact of control interventions. Programmes focused on reducing malaria transmission will be important to address, especially in HIV-infected individuals.

Can herpes simplex virus type 2 suppression slow HIV disease progression: a study protocol for the VALacyclovir In Delaying Antiretroviral Treatment Entry (VALIDATE) trial

BACKGROUND

Although highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has dramatically decreased HIV-related morbidity and mortality, the associated costs, toxicities, and resistance risks make the potential delay of HAART initiation an attractive goal. Suppression of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) may be a novel strategy for achieving this goal because HSV-2 is associated with clinically significant increases in HIV viral load, the primary driver of HIV disease progression.

METHODS/DESIGN

The VALacyclovir In Delaying Antiretroviral Treatment Entry (VALIDATE) trial is a multicentre, randomized, fully blinded, clinical trial of twice daily valacyclovir 500 mg versus placebo for delaying the need for initiating HAART among HIV-1, HSV-2 co-infected HAART-naïve adults. 480 participants from Canada, Brazil and Argentina will undergo quarterly clinical follow-up until reaching the composite primary endpoint of having a CD4+ T-cell count ≤ 350 cells/mm(3) or initiation of HAART for any reason, whichever occurs first. The primary analysis will use a proportional hazards model, stratified by site, to estimate the relative risk of progression to this endpoint associated with valacyclovir. Secondary analyses will compare the rates of change in CD4 count, median log10 HIV viral load, drug-related adverse events, frequency of HSV reactivations, rate of acyclovir-resistant HSV, and quality of life between study arms.

DISCUSSION

Although HIV treatment guidelines continue to evolve, with some authorities recommending earlier HAART among asymptomatic individuals, the potential delay of HAART remains a clinically relevant goal for many. If shown to be of benefit, implementation of the VALIDATE intervention will require careful consideration of both individual patient-level and public health implications.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN66756285. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00860977.

Modelling the interactions between herpes simplex virus type 2 and HIV: implications for the HIV epidemic in southern India

BACKGROUND

The role of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) in the HIV epidemic and the potential impact of HSV-2 suppressive therapy have previously been explored only within the context of sub-Saharan Africa. In this analysis, modelling is used to estimate the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV transmission from clients to female sex workers (FSW) in a southern Indian setting and the maximum potential impact of 'perfect' HSV-2 suppressive therapy on HIV incidence.

METHODS

A dynamic HSV-2/HIV model was developed, parameterised and fitted to Mysore data. The model estimated the attributable fractions of HIV infections due to HSV-2. Multivariate sensitivity analyses and regression analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

The model suggests that 36% (95% CI 22% to 62%) of FSW HIV infections were due to HSV-2, mostly through HSV-2 asymptomatic shedding. Even if HSV-2 suppressive therapy could eliminate the effect of HSV-2 on HIV infectivity among all co-infected clients, only 15% (95% CI 3% to 41%) of HIV infections among FSW would have been averted. 36% (95% CI 18% to 61%) of HIV infections among HSV-2-infected FSW could have been averted if suppressive therapy reduced their risk of HIV acquisition to that of HSV-2-uninfected FSW.

CONCLUSIONS

HSV-2 contributes substantially to HIV in this southern Indian context. However, even in the best case scenario, HSV-2 suppressive therapy is unlikely to reduce HIV transmission or acquisition by more than 50% (as aimed for in recent trials), because of the limited strength of the interaction effect between HSV-2 and HIV.

Dynamic modeling of herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) transmission: issues in structural uncertainty

The sexually transmitted infection (STI) Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) is of public health concern because it is a very common frequently unrecognized lifelong infection, which may facilitate HIV transmission. Within HIV/STI modeling, structural uncertainty has received less attention than parametric uncertainty. By merging the compartments of a "complex" model, a "simple" HSV-2 model is developed. Sexual interactions between female sex workers (FSWs) and clients are modeled using data from India. Latin Hypercube Sampling selects from parameter distributions and both models are run for each of the 10,000 parameter sets generated. Outputs are compared (except for 2,450 unrealistic simulations). The simple model is a good approximation to the complex model once the HSV-2 epidemic has reached 60% of the equilibrium prevalence (95% of the 7,550 runs produced <10% relative error). The simple model is a reduced version of the complex model that retains details implicitly. For late-stage epidemics, the simple model gives similar prevalence trends to the complex model. As HSV-2 epidemics in many populations are advanced, the simple model is accurate in most instances, although the complex model may be preferable for early epidemics. The analysis highlights the issue of structural uncertainty and the value of reducing complexity.

Population-level effect of potential HSV2 prophylactic vaccines on HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa

Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV2) infection increases HIV transmission. We explore the impact of a potential prophylactic HSV2 vaccination on HIV incidence in Africa using STDSIM an individual-based model. A campaign that achieved 70% coverage over 5 years with a vaccine that reduced susceptibility to HSV2 acquisition and HSV2 reactivation by 75% for 10 years, reduced HIV incidence by 30-40% after 20 years (range 4-66%). Over 20 years, in most scenarios fewer than 100 vaccinations were required to avert one HIV infection. HSV2 vaccines could have a substantial impact on HIV incidence. Intensified efforts are needed to develop an effective HSV2 vaccine.

Is suspicion of genital herpes infection associated with avoiding sex? A clinic-based study

OBJECTIVE

The present study tested the research hypothesis that sexually transmissible disease (STD) clinic patients suspecting genital herpes infection would be more likely than their 'non-suspecting' counterparts to abstain from sex to avoid transmission of a perceived STD.

METHODS

Recruitment (n = 351) occurred in a publicly-funded STD clinic located in a metropolitan area of the southern USA. Participants were tested for herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) using a rapid test manufactured by Biokit (Lexington, MA, USA) and they completed a self-administered questionnaire (using a 3-month recall period).

RESULTS

Well over one-third (38.7%) of those indicating suspicion also indicated avoiding sex with steady partners because of concerns about STDs as compared with 28.0% among those not indicating suspicion (prevalence ratio = 1.38; 95% CI = 1.02-1.87, P = 0.036). The relationship between suspicion and avoiding sex with non-steady partners was not significant (P = 0.720). The relationship with steady partners only applied to people who were female (P = 0.013), single (P = 0.017), reported symptoms of genital herpes (P = 0.003), perceived that genital herpes would have a strong negative influence on their sex life (P = 0.0001), and who subsequently tested positive for HSV-2 (P = 0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

Among STD clinic attendees, suspicion of genital herpes infection may translate into partner protective behaviour, but only for a minority of people and only with respect to sex with steady partners. Clinic-based and community-based education programs may benefit public health by teaching people (especially single women) how to effectively recognise symptoms of primary genital herpes infections. Reversing the often prevailing ethic of genital herpes as a 'community secret' will clearly be a challenge to these education programs.

Do protective behaviors follow the experience of testing positive for herpes simplex type 2?

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that individuals attending a sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinic would adopt sexual protective behaviors after receiving a positive test for herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2).

METHODS

Recruitment (N = 360) occurred in a publicly funded STD clinic located in a metropolitan area of the southern United States. Participants were tested for HSV-2 using a rapid test manufactured by Biokit (Lexington, MA) and they completed a self-administered questionnaire before and 3 months after being tested for HSV-2. Follow-up questionnaires were completed by 256 participants (71.1%).

RESULTS

Of those completing follow-up, 43.4% (n = 111) tested positive for HSV-2 at enrollment. Significant differences between participants testing positive and those testing negative (at baseline) for HSV-2 over the follow-up period were not observed for frequency of sex, frequency of condom use, avoiding sex, and number of sex partners. Controlling for statistically identified covariates did not alter the null findings for these between group analyses. When analyzing change (baseline to follow-up) among only those testing positive, significant differences were not found with the exception of reporting greater frequency of condom use with steady (P = 0.037) and nonsteady partners at follow-up (P = 0.017). However, repeated measures analyses yielded only 1 significant group x time interaction; this indicated a greater increase in condom use frequency with steady partners among persons testing negative compared with those testing positive.

CONCLUSIONS

Among STD clinic attendees, diagnosis of HSV-2 was unrelated to the adoption of sexual behaviors protective against further acquisition and transmission of STDs. In the absence of education beyond posttest counseling, becoming aware of HSV-2 positive serostatus may not be sufficient to motivate the adoption of safer sex behaviors among this population.

Population-level effect of HSV-2 therapy on the incidence of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection increases acquisition and transmission of HIV, but the results of trials measuring the impact of HSV-2 therapy on HIV genital shedding and HIV acquisition are mixed, and the potential impact of HSV-2 therapy on the incidence of HIV at the population level is unknown.

METHODS

The effects of episodic and suppressive HSV-2 therapy were simulated using the individual-level model STDSIM fitted to data from Cotonou, Benin (relatively low HIV prevalence) and Kisumu, Kenya (high HIV prevalence). Clinician- and patient-initiated episodic therapy, started when symptomatic, were assumed to reduce ulcer duration. Suppressive therapy, given regardless of symptoms, was also assumed to reduce ulcer frequency and HSV-2 infectiousness.

RESULTS

Clinician-initiated episodic therapy in the general population had almost no effect on the incidence of HIV. The impact of patient-initiated therapy was higher because of earlier treatment initiation, but still low (<5%) unless symptom recognition and treatment-seeking behaviour were very high. Suppressive therapy given to female sex workers (FSW) in Kisumu had little effect on population HIV incidence. In Cotonou, suppressive therapy in FSW with high coverage and long duration reduced population HIV incidence by >20% in the long term. Impact was increased in both cities by also treating a proportion of their clients. Long-term suppressive therapy with high coverage in the general population could reduce HIV incidence by more than 30%.

CONCLUSIONS

These results show that HSV-2 therapy could potentially have a population-level impact on the incidence of HIV, especially in more concentrated epidemics. However, a substantial impact requires high coverage and long duration therapy, or very high symptom recognition and treatment-seeking behaviour.

Genital herpes has played a more important role than any other sexually transmitted infection in driving HIV prevalence in Africa

Background

Extensive evidence from observational studies suggests a role for genital herpes in the HIV epidemic. A number of herpes vaccines are under development and several trials of the efficacy of HSV-2 treatment with acyclovir in reducing HIV acquisition, transmission, and disease progression have just reported their results or will report their results in the next year. The potential impact of these interventions requires a quantitative assessment of the magnitude of the synergy between HIV and HSV-2 at the population level.

Methods and Findings

A deterministic compartmental model of HIV and HSV-2 dynamics and interactions was constructed. The nature of the epidemiologic synergy was explored qualitatively and quantitatively and compared to other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The results suggest a more substantial role for HSV-2 in fueling HIV spread in sub-Saharan Africa than other STIs. We estimate that in settings of high HSV-2 prevalence, such as Kisumu, Kenya, more than a quarter of incident HIV infections may have been attributed directly to HSV-2. HSV-2 has also contributed considerably to the onward transmission of HIV by increasing the pool of HIV positive persons in the population and may explain one-third of the differential HIV prevalence among the cities of the Four City study. Conversely, we estimate that HIV had only a small net impact on HSV-2 prevalence.

Conclusions

HSV-2 role as a biological cofactor in HIV acquisition and transmission may have contributed substantially to HIV particularly by facilitating HIV spread among the low-risk population with stable long-term sexual partnerships. This finding suggests that prevention of HSV-2 infection through a prophylactic vaccine may be an effective intervention both in nascent epidemics with high HIV incidence in the high risk groups, and in established epidemics where a large portion of HIV transmission occurs in stable partnerships.

Mathematical models for HIV transmission dynamics: tools for social and behavioral science research

HIV researchers have long appreciated the need to understand the social and behavioral determinants of HIV-related risk behavior, but the cumulative impact of individual behaviors on population-level HIV outcomes can be subtle and counterintuitive, and the methods for studying this are rarely part of a traditional social science or epidemiology training program. Mathematical models provide a way to examine the potential effects of the proximate biologic and behavioral determinants of HIV transmission dynamics, alone and in combination. The purpose of this article is to show how mathematical modeling studies have contributed to our understanding of the dynamics and disparities in the global spread of HIV. Our aims are to demonstrate the value that these analytic tools have for social and behavioral sciences in HIV prevention research, to identify gaps in the current literature, and to suggest directions for future research.

Sampling and sensitivity analyses tools (SaSAT) for computational modelling

SaSAT (Sampling and Sensitivity Analysis Tools) is a user-friendly software package for applying uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to mathematical and computational models of arbitrary complexity and context. The toolbox is built in Matlab^®, a numerical mathematical software package, and utilises algorithms contained in the Matlab^® Statistics Toolbox. However, Matlab^® is not required to use SaSAT as the software package is provided as an executable file with all the necessary supplementary files. The SaSAT package is also designed to work seamlessly with Microsoft Excel but no functionality is forfeited if that software is not available. A comprehensive suite of tools is provided to enable the following tasks to be easily performed: efficient and equitable sampling of parameter space by various methodologies; calculation of correlation coefficients; regression analysis; factor prioritisation; and graphical output of results, including response surfaces, tornado plots, and scatterplots. Use of SaSAT is exemplified by application to a simple epidemic model. To our knowledge, a number of the methods available in SaSAT for performing sensitivity analyses have not previously been used in epidemiological modelling and their usefulness in this context is demonstrated.

Sampling and sensitivity analyses tools (SaSAT) for computational modelling

SaSAT (Sampling and Sensitivity Analysis Tools) is a user-friendly software package for applying uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to mathematical and computational models of arbitrary complexity and context. The toolbox is built in Matlab, a numerical mathematical software package, and utilises algorithms contained in the Matlab Statistics Toolbox. However, Matlab is not required to use SaSAT as the software package is provided as an executable file with all the necessary supplementary files. The SaSAT package is also designed to work seamlessly with Microsoft Excel but no functionality is forfeited if that software is not available. A comprehensive suite of tools is provided to enable the following tasks to be easily performed: efficient and equitable sampling of parameter space by various methodologies; calculation of correlation coefficients; regression analysis; factor prioritisation; and graphical output of results, including response surfaces, tornado plots, and scatterplots. Use of SaSAT is exemplified by application to a simple epidemic model. To our knowledge, a number of the methods available in SaSAT for performing sensitivity analyses have not previously been used in epidemiological modelling and their usefulness in this context is demonstrated.

Potential impact of antiretroviral chemoprophylaxis on HIV-1 transmission in resource-limited settings

Background

The potential impact of pre-exposure chemoprophylaxis (PrEP) on heterosexual transmission of HIV-1 infection in resource-limited settings is uncertain.

Methodology/Principle Findings

A deterministic mathematical model was used to simulate the effects of antiretroviral PrEP on an HIV-1 epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa under different scenarios (optimistic, neutral and pessimistic) both with and without sexual disinhibition. Sensitivity analyses were used to evaluate the effect of uncertainty in input parameters on model output and included calculation of partial rank correlations and standardized rank regressions. In the scenario without sexual disinhibition after PrEP initiation, key parameters influencing infections prevented were effectiveness of PrEP (partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) = 0.94), PrEP discontinuation rate (PRCC = −0.94), level of coverage (PRCC = 0.92), and time to achieve target coverage (PRCC = −0.82). In the scenario with sexual disinhibition, PrEP effectiveness and the extent of sexual disinhibition had the greatest impact on prevention. An optimistic scenario of PrEP with 90% effectiveness and 75% coverage of the general population predicted a 74% decline in cumulative HIV-1 infections after 10 years, and a 28.8% decline with PrEP targeted to the highest risk groups (16% of the population). Even with a 100% increase in at-risk behavior from sexual disinhibition, a beneficial effect (23.4%–62.7% decrease in infections) was seen with 90% effective PrEP across a broad range of coverage (25%–75%). Similar disinhibition led to a rise in infections with lower effectiveness of PrEP (≤50%).

Conclusions/Significance

Mathematical modeling supports the potential public health benefit of PrEP. Approximately 2.7 to 3.2 million new HIV-1 infections could be averted in southern sub-Saharan Africa over 10 years by targeting PrEP (having 90% effectiveness) to those at highest behavioral risk and by preventing sexual disinhibition. This benefit could be lost, however, by sexual disinhibition and by high PrEP discontinuation, especially with lower PrEP effectiveness (≤50%).

Herpes and HIV infection—has the time come to act?

It has been known for some years that the ulcerative and inflammatory STIs lead to an increased risk of HIV transmission. In particular, there is a two- to four-fold increased risk of HIV-1 acquisition associated with prevalent herpes simplex virus type 2. The challenges are discussed herein.

Counseling the Patient who has Genital Herpes or Genital Human Papillomavirus Infection

Educational counseling has an important role in managing patients who have viral STIs, such as genital herpes and genital HPV infections. Given the lack of a curative therapy for both, patients may require long-term management and may need to be attentive to recurring symptoms. In addition, both diagnoses may raise issues of persisting infectiousness along with a need for patient counseling about the potential risk to partners and risk reduction strategies. Lastly, dozens of published papers over the years describe potential psychosocial sequelae for patients who have genital herpes, and there is a growing psychosocial literature on genital HPV as well. Clinicians can make a significant difference in patient adjustment to the diagnosis of an STI, and addressing these challenging issues will benefit patients greatly.

The antiretroviral rollout and drug-resistant HIV in Africa: insights from empirical data and theoretical models

The U.S. Government has pledged to spend $15 billion in Africa and the Caribbean on AIDS. A central focus of this plan is to provide antiretroviral treatment (ART) to millions. Here, we evaluate whether the plan to rollout ART in Africa is likely to generate an epidemic of drug-resistant strains of HIV. We review what has occurred as a result of high usage of ART in developed countries in terms of changes in risky behavior, and the emergence and transmission of drug-resistant HIV. We also review how mathematical models have been used to predict the evolution of drug-resistant HIV epidemics. We then show how models can be used to predict the likely impact of the ART rollout on the evolution of drug-resistant HIV in Africa. At currently planned levels of treatment coverage, we predict that (over the next decade) in Africa: (i) the impact of ART on reducing HIV transmission (and prevalence) is likely to be undetectable (unless accompanied by substantial changes in behavior), (ii) the transmission rate of drug-resistant HIV will be below the WHO surveillance threshold of 5%, and (ii) the majority of cases of drug-resistant HIV that will occur will be due to acquired (and not transmitted) resistance. For the next decade, large-scale surveillance for detecting transmitted resistance in Africa is unnecessary. Instead, we recommend that patients should be closely monitored for acquired resistance, and sentinel surveillance (in a few urban centers) should be used to monitor transmitted resistance.