Hotter is better and broader: thermal sensitivity of fitness in a population of bacteriophages

Intraspecific variation in thermal performance curves for early development in Fundulus heteroclitus

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) provide a framework for understanding the effects of temperature on ectotherm performance and fitness. TPCs are often used to test hypotheses regarding local adaptation to temperature or to develop predictions for how organisms will respond to climate warming. However, for aquatic organisms such as fishes, most TPCs have been estimated for adult life stages, and little is known about the shape of TPCs or the potential for thermal adaptation at sensitive embryonic life stages. To examine how latitudinal gradients shape TPCs at early life stages in fishes, we used two populations of Fundulus heteroclitus that have been shown to exhibit latitudinal variation along the thermal cline as adults. We exposed embryos from both northern and southern populations and their reciprocal crosses to eight different temperatures (15°C, 18°C, 21°C, 24°C, 27°C, 30°C, 33°C, and 36°C) until hatch and examined the effects of developmental temperature on embryonic and larval traits (shape of TPCs, heart rate, and body size). We found that the pure southern embryos had a right-shifted TPC (higher thermal optimum (Topt) for developmental rate, survival, and embryonic growth rate) whereas pure northern embryos had a vertically shifted TPC (higher maximum performance (Pmax) for developmental rate). Differences across larval traits and cross-type were also found, such that northern crosses hatched faster and hatched at a smaller size compared to the pure southern population. Overall, these observed differences in embryonic and larval traits are consistent with patterns of both local adaptation and countergradient variation.

Evolution Under Thermal Stress Affects Escherichia coli's Resistance to Antibiotics

Exposure to both antibiotics and temperature changes can induce similar physiological responses in bacteria. Thus, changes in growth temperature may affect antibiotic resistance. Previous studies have found that evolution under antibiotic stress causes shifts in the optimal growth temperature of bacteria. However, little is known about how evolution under thermal stress affects antibiotic resistance. We examined 100+ heat-evolved strains of Escherichia coli that evolved under thermal stress. We asked whether evolution under thermal stress affects optimal growth temperature, if there are any correlations between evolving in high temperatures and antibiotic resistance, and if these strains' antibiotic efficacy changes depending on the local environment's temperature. We found that: (1) surprisingly, most of the heat-evolved strains displayed a decrease in optimal growth temperature and overall growth relative to the ancestor strain, (2) there were complex patterns of changes in antibiotic resistance when comparing the heat-evolved strains to the ancestor strain, and (3) there were few significant correlations among changes in antibiotic resistance, optimal growth temperature, and overall growth.

Mosquito thermal tolerance is remarkably constrained across a large climatic range

How mosquitoes may respond to rapid climate warming remains unknown for most species, but will have major consequences for their future distributions, with cascading impacts on human well-being, biodiversity, and ecosystem function. We investigated the adaptive potential of a wide-ranging mosquito species, Aedes sierrensis, across a large climatic gradient by conducting a common garden experiment measuring the thermal limits of mosquito life history traits. Although field-collected populations originated from vastly different thermal environments that spanned over 1,200 km, we found remarkably limited variation in upper thermal tolerance between populations, with the upper thermal limits of fitness varying by <1°C across the species range. For one life history trait-pupal development rate-we did detect significant variation in upper thermal limits between populations, and this variation was strongly correlated with source temperatures, providing evidence of local thermal adaptation for pupal development. However, we found environmental temperatures already regularly exceed our highest estimated upper thermal limits throughout most of the species range, suggesting limited potential for mosquito thermal tolerance to evolve on pace with warming. Strategies for avoiding high temperatures such as diapause, phenological shifts, and behavioral thermoregulation are likely important for mosquito persistence.

Linking temperature dependence of fitness effects of mutations to thermal niche adaptation

Fitness effects of mutations may generally depend on temperature that influences all rate-limiting biophysical and biochemical processes. Earlier studies suggested that high temperatures may increase the availability of beneficial mutations ('more beneficial mutations'), or allow beneficial mutations to show stronger fitness effects ('stronger beneficial mutation effects'). The 'more beneficial mutations' scenario would inevitably be associated with increased proportion of conditionally beneficial mutations at higher temperatures. This in turn predicts that populations in warm environments show faster evolutionary adaptation but suffer fitness loss when faced with cold conditions, and those evolving in cold environments become thermal-niche generalists ('hotter is narrower'). Under the 'stronger beneficial mutation effects' scenario, populations evolving in warm environments would show faster adaptation without fitness costs in cold environments, leading to a 'hotter is (universally) better' pattern in thermal niche adaptation. We tested predictions of the two competing hypotheses using an experimental evolution study in which populations of two model bacterial species, Escherichia coli and Pseudomonas fluorescens, evolved for 2400 generations at three experimental temperatures. Results of reciprocal transplant experiments with our P. fluorescens populations were largely consistent with the 'hotter is narrower' prediction. Results from the E. coli populations clearly suggested stronger beneficial mutation effects at higher assay temperatures, but failed to detect faster adaptation in populations evolving in warmer experimental environments (presumably because of limitation in the supply of genetic variation). Our results suggest that the influence of temperature on mutational effects may provide insight into the patterns of thermal niche adaptation and population diversification across thermal conditions.

Evolutionary constraints mediate extinction risk under climate change

Mounting evidence suggests that rapid evolutionary adaptation may rescue some organisms from the impacts of climate change. However, evolutionary constraints might hinder this process, especially when different aspects of environmental change generate antagonistic selection on genetically correlated traits. Here, we use individual-based simulations to explore how genetic correlations underlying the thermal physiology of ectotherms might influence their responses to the two major components of climate change-increases in mean temperature and thermal variability. We found that genetic correlations can influence population dynamics under climate change, with declines in population size varying three-fold depending on the type of correlation present. Surprisingly, populations whose thermal performance curves were constrained by genetic correlations often declined less rapidly than unconstrained populations. Our results suggest that accurate forecasts of the impact of climate change on ectotherms will require an understanding of the genetic architecture of the traits under selection.

Evolution of thermal performance curves: A meta-analysis of selection experiments

Temperatures are increasing due to global changes, putting biodiversity at risk. Organisms are faced with a limited set of options to cope with this situation: adapt, disperse or die. We here focus on the first possibility, more specifically, on evolutionary adaptations to temperature. Ectotherms are usually characterized by a hump-shaped relationship between fitness and temperature, a non-linear reaction norm that is referred to as thermal performance curve (TPC). To understand and predict impacts of global change, we need to know whether and how such TPCs evolve. Therefore, we performed a systematic literature search and a statistical meta-analysis focusing on experimental evolution and artificial selection studies. This focus allows us to directly quantify relative fitness responses to temperature selection by calculating fitness differences between TPCs from ancestral and derived populations after thermal selection. Out of 7561 publications screened, we found 47 studies corresponding to our search criteria representing taxa across the tree of life, from bacteria, to plants and vertebrates. We show that, independently of species identity, the studies we found report a positive response to temperature selection. Considering entire TPC shapes, adaptation to higher temperatures traded off with fitness at lower temperatures, leading to niche shifts. Effects were generally stronger in unicellular organisms. By contrast, we do not find statistical support for the often discussed "Hotter is better" hypothesis. While our meta-analysis provides evidence for adaptive potential of TPCs across organisms, it also highlights that more experimental work is needed, especially for under-represented taxa, such as plants and non-model systems.

Adaptation to environmental temperature in divergent clades of the nematode Pristionchus pacificus

Because of ongoing climate change, populations of organisms are being subjected to stressful temperatures more often. This is especially problematic for ectothermic organisms, which are likely to be more sensitive to changes in temperature. Therefore, we need to know if ectotherms have adapted to environmental temperature and, if so, what are the evolutionary mechanisms behind such adaptation. Here, we use the nematode Pristionchus pacificus as a case study to investigate thermal adaptation on the Indian Ocean island of La Réunion, which experiences a range of temperatures from coast to summit. We study the evolution of high-temperature tolerance by constructing a phylogenetic tree of strains collected from many different thermal niches. We show that populations of P. pacificus at low altitudes have higher fertility at warmer temperatures. Most likely, this phenotype has arisen recently and at least twice independently, consistent with parallel evolution. We also studied low-temperature tolerance and showed that populations from high altitudes have increased their fertility at cooler temperatures. Together, these data indicate that P. pacificus strains on La Réunion are subject to divergent selection, adapting to hot and cold niches at the coast and summit of the volcano. Precisely defining these thermal niches provides essential information for models that predict the impact of future climate change on these populations.

Xylotrechus arvicola (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) capture in vineyards in relation to climatic factors

BACKGROUND

Captures and seasonal abundance of Xylotrechus arvicola (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in relation to climatic factors were studied in vineyards between the years 2013 and 2020. Insects captures from vine wood in two Vitis vinifera varieties were evaluated every year by counting the number of insects captured with CROSSTRAP®. The captured insects were grouped (by sex and total) into ranges of 10 days and compared to climatic data (daily average, temperature and rainfall) for each cultivar and year.

RESULTS

The capture periods spanned from 1 June and 31 July, with the period from 1 to 30 June having the greatest number of insect captures, as long as weather conditions were favourable, i.e. temperature above 20.00 °C and accumulated rainfall in 10 days lower than 0.40 mm, verified through the analysis of parameter estimates, in which, only the temperature parameter was significantly.

CONCLUSIONS

The study provided useful information for the integrated pest management of X. arvicola through mass trapping in vineyards when temperature exceeds 20.00 °C and the accumulated rainfall is less than 0.40 mm in 10 days to obtain peak captures. This is the first quantitative study of X. arvicola control associated with temperature and rainfall in Vitis vinifera. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

Two co-dominant nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria demonstrate distinct acclimation and adaptation responses to cope with ocean warming

The globally dominant N₂ -fixing cyanobacteria Trichodesmium and Crocosphaera provide vital nitrogen supplies to subtropical and tropical oceans, but little is known about how they will be affected by long-term ocean warming. We tested their thermal responses using experimental evolution methods during 2 years of selection at optimal (28°C), supra-optimal (32°C) and suboptimal (22°C) temperatures. After several hundred generations under thermal selection, changes in growth parameters, as well as N and C fixation rates, suggested that Trichodesmium did not adapt to the three selection temperature regimes during the 2-year evolution experiment, but could instead rapidly and reversibly acclimate to temperature shifts from 20°C to 34°C. In contrast, over the same timeframe apparent thermal adaptation was observed in Crocosphaera, as evidenced by irreversible phenotypic changes as well as whole-genome sequencing and variant analysis. Especially under stressful warming conditions (34°C), 32°C-selected Crocosphaera cells had an advantage in survival and nitrogen fixation over cell lines selected at 22°C and 28°C. The distinct strategies of phenotypic plasticity versus irreversible adaptation in these two sympatric diazotrophs are both viable ways to maintain fitness despite long-term temperature changes, and so could help to stabilize key ocean nitrogen cycle functions under future warming scenarios.

Thermal Acclimation and Adaptation in Marine Protozooplankton and Mixoplankton

Proper thermal adaptation is key to understanding how species respond to long-term changes in temperature. However, this is seldom considered in protozooplankton and mixoplankton experiments. In this work, we studied how two heterotrophic dinoflagellates (Gyrodinium dominans and Oxyrrhis marina), one heterotrophic ciliate (Strombidium arenicola), and one mixotrophic dinoflagellate (Karlodinium armiger) responded to warming. To do so, we compared strains adapted at 16, 19, and 22°C and those adapted at 16°C and exposed for 3 days to temperature increases of 3 and 6°C (acclimated treatments). Neither their carbon, nitrogen or phosphorus (CNP) contents nor their corresponding elemental ratios showed straightforward changes with temperature, except for a modest increase in P contents with temperature in some grazers. In general, the performance of both acclimated and adapted grazers increased from 16 to 19°C and then dropped at 22°C, with a few exceptions. Therefore, our organisms followed the "hotter is better" hypothesis for a temperature rise of 3°C; an increase of >6°C, however, resulted in variable outcomes. Despite the disparity in responses among species and physiological rates, 19°C-adapted organisms, in general, performed better than acclimated-only (16°C-adapted organisms incubated at +3°C). However, at 22°C, most species were at the limit of their metabolic equilibrium and were unable to fully adapt. Nevertheless, adaptation to higher temperatures allowed strains to maintain physiological activities when exposed to sudden increases in temperature (up to 25°C). In summary, adaptation to temperature seems to confer a selective advantage to protistan grazers within a narrow range (i.e., ca. 3°C). Adaptation to much higher increases of temperatures (i.e., +6°C) does not confer any clear physiological advantage (with few exceptions; e.g., the mixotroph K. armiger), at least within the time frame of our experiments.

Short‐term thermal acclimation modulates predator functional response

Phenotypic plastic responses to temperature can modulate the kinetic effects of temperature on biological rates and traits and thus play an important role for species adaptation to climate change. However, there is little information on how these plastic responses to temperature can influence trophic interactions. Here, we conducted an experiment using marbled crayfish and their water louse prey to investigate how short‐term thermal acclimation at two temperatures (16 and 24°C) modulates the predator functional response. We found that both functional response parameters (search rate and handling time) differed between the two experimental temperatures. However, the sign and magnitudes of these differences strongly depended on acclimation time. Acclimation to 16°C increased handling time and search rate whereas acclimation to 24°C leads to the opposite effects with shorter handling time and lower search rate for acclimated predators. Moreover, the strength of these effects increased with acclimation time so that the differences in search rate and handing time between the two temperatures were reversed between the treatment without acclimation and after 24 h of acclimation. Overall, we found that the magnitude of the acclimation effects can be as strong as the direct kinetic effects of temperature. Our study highlights the importance of taking into account short‐term thermal plasticity to improve our understanding of the potential consequences of global warming on species interactions.

Heat adaptation of phage T7 under an extended genetic code

While bacteriophages have previously been used as a model system to understand thermal adaptation, most adapted genomes observed to date contain very few modifications and cover a limited temperature range. Here, we set out to investigate genome adaptation to thermal stress by adapting six populations of T7 bacteriophage virions to increasingly stringent heat challenges. Further, we provided three of the phage populations’ access to a new genetic code in which Amber codons could be read as selenocysteine, potentially allowing the formation of more stable selenide-containing bonds. Phage virions responded to the thermal challenges with a greater than 10°C increase in heat tolerance and fixed highly reproducible patterns of non-synonymous substitutions and genome deletions. Most fixed mutations mapped to either the tail complex or to the three internal virion proteins that form a pore across the E. coli cell membrane during DNA injection. However, few global changes in Amber codon usage were observed, with only one natural Amber codon being lost. These results reinforce a model in which adaptation to thermal stress proceeds via the cumulative fixation of a small set of highly adaptive substitutions and that adaptation to new genetic codes proceeds only slowly, even with the possibility of potential phenotypic advantages.

Linking species traits and demography to explain complex temperature responses across levels of organization

Microbial communities regulate ecosystem responses to climate change. However, predicting these responses is challenging because of complex interactions among processes at multiple levels of organization. Organismal traits that determine individual performance and ecological interactions are essential for scaling up environmental responses from individuals to ecosystems. We combine protist microcosm experiments and mathematical models to show that key traits-cell size, shape, and contents-each explain different aspects of species' demographic responses to changes in temperature. These differences in species' temperature responses have complex cascading effects across levels of organization-causing nonlinear shifts in total community respiration rates across temperatures via coordinated changes in community composition, equilibrium densities, and community-mean species mass in experimental protist communities that tightly match theoretical predictions. Our results suggest that traits explain variation in population growth, and together, these two factors scale up to influence community- and ecosystem-level processes across temperatures. Connecting the multilevel microbial processes that ultimately influence climate in this way will help refine predictions about complex ecosystem-climate feedbacks and the pace of climate change itself.

Temperature affects the repeatability of evolution in the microbial eukaryote Tetrahymena thermophila

Evolutionary biologists have long sought to understand what factors affect the repeatability of adaptive outcomes. To better understand the role of temperature in determining the repeatability of adaptive trajectories, we evolved populations of different genotypes of the ciliate Tetrahymena thermophila at low and high temperatures and followed changes in growth rate over 6,500 generations. As expected, growth rate increased with a decelerating rate for all populations; however, there were differences in the patterns of evolution at the two temperatures. The growth rates of the different genotypes tended to converge as evolution proceeded at both temperatures, but this convergence was quicker and more pronounced at the higher temperature. Additionally, over the first 4,000 generations we found greater repeatability of evolution, in terms of change in growth rate, among replicates of the same genotype at the higher temperature. Finally, we found limited evidence of trade-offs in fitness between temperatures, and an asymmetry in the correlated responses, whereby evolution in a high temperature increases growth rate at the lower temperature significantly more than the reverse. These results demonstrate the importance of temperature in determining the repeatability of evolutionary trajectories for the eukaryotic microbe Tetrahymena thermophila and may provide clues to how temperature affects evolution more generally.

Multiple modes of selection can influence the role of phenotypic plasticity in species' invasions: Evidence from a manipulative field experiment

In exploring the roles of phenotypic plasticity in the establishment and early evolution of invading species, little empirical attention has been given to the importance of correlational selection acting upon suites of functionally related plastic traits in nature. We illustrate how this lack of attention has limited our ability to evaluate plasticity's role during invasion and also, the costs and benefits of plasticity. We addressed these issues by transplanting clones of European-derived Plantago lanceolata L. genotypes into two temporally variable habitats in the species' introduced range in North America. Phenotypic selection analyses were performed for each habitat to estimate linear, quadratic, and correlational selection on phenotypic trait values and plasticities in the reproductive traits: flowering onset and spike and scape lengths. Also, we measured pairwise genetic correlations for our "colonists." Results showed that (a) correlational selection acted on trait plasticity after transplantation, (b) selection favored certain combinations of genetically correlated and uncorrelated trait values and plasticities, and (c) using signed, instead of absolute, values of plasticity in analyses facilitated the detection of correlational selection on trait value-plasticity combinations and their adaptive value. Based on our results, we urge future studies on species invasions to (a) measure correlational selection and (b) retain signed values of plasticity in order to better discriminate between adaptive and maladaptive plasticity.

Genetic Constraints, Transcriptome Plasticity, and the Evolutionary Response to Climate Change

In situ adaptation to climate change will be critical for the persistence of many ectotherm species due to their relative lack of dispersal capacity. Climate change is causing increases in both the mean and the variance of environmental temperature, each of which may act as agents of selection on different traits. Importantly, these traits may not be heritable or have the capacity to evolve independently from one another. When genetic constraints prevent the "baseline" values of thermal performance traits from evolving rapidly, phenotypic plasticity driven by gene expression might become critical. We review the literature for evidence that thermal performance traits in ectotherms are heritable and have genetic architectures that permit their unconstrained evolution. Next, we examine the relationship between gene expression and both the magnitude and duration of thermal stress. Finally, we identify genes that are likely to be important for adaptation to a changing climate and determine whether they show patterns consistent with thermal adaptation. Although few studies have measured narrow-sense heritabilities of thermal performance traits, current evidence suggests that the end points of thermal reaction norms (tolerance limits) are moderately heritable and have the potential to evolve rapidly. By contrast, performance at intermediate temperatures has substantially lower evolutionary potential. Moreover, evolution in many species appears to be constrained by genetic correlations such that populations can adapt to either increases in mean temperature or temperature variability, but not both. Finally, many species have the capacity for plastic expression of the transcriptome in response to temperature shifts, with the number of differentially expressed genes increasing with the magnitude, but not the duration, of thermal stress. We use these observations to develop a conceptual model that describes the likely trajectory of genome evolution in response to changes in environmental temperature. Our results indicate that extreme weather events, rather than gradual increases in mean temperature, are more likely to drive genetic and phenotypic change in wild ectotherms.

Quantitative genetics of temperature performance curves of Neurospora crassa

Earth's temperature is increasing due to anthropogenic CO 2 emissions; and organisms need either to adapt to higher temperatures, migrate into colder areas, or face extinction. Temperature affects nearly all aspects of an organism's physiology via its influence on metabolic rate and protein structure, therefore genetic adaptation to increased temperature may be much harder to achieve compared to other abiotic stresses. There is still much to be learned about the evolutionary potential for adaptation to higher temperatures, therefore we studied the quantitative genetics of growth rates in different temperatures that make up the thermal performance curve of the fungal model system Neurospora crassa. We studied the amount of genetic variation for thermal performance curves and examined possible genetic constraints by estimating the G-matrix. We observed a substantial amount of genetic variation for growth in different temperatures, and most genetic variation was for performance curve elevation. Contrary to common theoretical assumptions, we did not find strong evidence for genetic trade-offs for growth between hotter and colder temperatures. We also simulated short-term evolution of thermal performance curves of N. crassa, and suggest that they can have versatile responses to selection.

Phytoplankton thermal responses adapt in the absence of hard thermodynamic constraints

To better predict how populations and communities respond to climatic temperature variation, it is necessary to understand how the shape of the response of fitness-related rates to temperature evolves (the thermal performance curve). Currently, there is disagreement about the extent to which the evolution of thermal performance curves is constrained. One school of thought has argued for the prevalence of thermodynamic constraints through enzyme kinetics, whereas another argues that adaptation can-at least partly-overcome such constraints. To shed further light on this debate, we perform a phylogenetic meta-analysis of the thermal performance curves of growth rate of phytoplankton-a globally important functional group-controlling for environmental effects (habitat type and thermal regime). We find that thermodynamic constraints have a minor influence on the shape of the curve. In particular, we detect a very weak increase of maximum performance with the temperature at which the curve peaks, suggesting a weak "hotter-is-better" constraint. Also, instead of a constant thermal sensitivity of growth across species, as might be expected from strong constraints, we find that all aspects of the thermal performance curve evolve along the phylogeny. Our results suggest that phytoplankton thermal performance curves adapt to thermal environments largely in the absence of hard thermodynamic constraints.

Temperature-dependent changes to host-parasite interactions alter the thermal performance of a bacterial host

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) are used to predict changes in species interactions, and hence, range shifts, disease dynamics and community composition, under forecasted climate change. Species interactions might in turn affect TPCs. Here, we investigate how temperature-dependent changes in a microbial host-parasite interaction (the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens, and its lytic bacteriophage, SBW[Formula: see text]) changes the host TPC and the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms underlying these changes. The bacteriophage had a narrower thermal tolerance for infection, with their critical thermal maximum ~6 °C lower than those at which the bacteria still had high growth. Consequently, in the presence of phage, the host TPC changed, resulting in a lower maximum growth rate. These changes were not just driven by differences in thermal tolerance, with temperature-dependent costs of evolved resistance also playing a major role: the largest cost of resistance occurred at the temperature at which bacteria grew best in the absence of phage. Our work highlights how ecological and evolutionary mechanisms can alter the effect of a parasite on host thermal performance, even over very short timescales.

Phenotypically plastic responses to predation risk are temperature dependent

Predicting how organisms respond to climate change requires that we understand the temperature dependence of fitness in relevant ecological contexts (e.g., with or without predation risk). Predation risk often induces changes to life history traits that are themselves temperature dependent. We explore how perceived predation risk and temperature interact to determine fitness (indicated by the intrinsic rate of increase, r) through changes to its underlying components (net reproductive rate, generation time, and survival) in Daphnia magna. We exposed Daphnia to predation cues from dragonfly naiads early, late, or throughout their ontogeny. Predation risk increased r differentially across temperatures and depending on the timing of exposure to predation cues. The timing of predation risk likewise altered the temperature-dependent response of T and R₀. Daphnia at hotter temperatures responded to predation risk by increasing r through a combination of increased R₀ and decreased T that together countered an increase in mortality rate. However, only D. magna that experienced predation cues early in ontogeny showed elevated r at colder temperatures. These results highlight the fact that phenotypically plastic responses of life history traits to predation risk can be strongly temperature dependent.

Latitude-associated evolution and drivers of thermal response curves in body stoichiometry

Trait-based studies are needed to understand the plastic and genetic responses of organisms to warming. A neglected organismal trait is elemental composition, despite its potential to cascade into effects on the ecosystem level. Warming is predicted to shape elemental composition through shifts in storage molecules associated with responses in growth, body size and metabolic rate. Our goals were to quantify thermal response patterns in body composition and to obtain insights into their underlying drivers and their evolution across latitudes. We reconstructed the thermal response curves (TRCs) for body elemental composition [C (carbon), N (nitrogen) and the C:N ratio] of damselfly larvae from high- and low-latitude populations. Additionally, we quantified the TRCs for survival, growth and development rates and body size to assess local thermal adaptation, as well as the TRCs for metabolic rate and key macromolecules (proteins, fat, sugars and cuticular melanin and chitin) as these may underlie the elemental TRCs. All larvae died at 36°C. Up to 32°C, low-latitude larvae increased growth and development rates and did not suffer increased mortality. Instead, growth and development rates of high-latitude larvae were lower and levelled off at 24°C, and mortality increased at 32°C. This latitude-associated thermal adaptation pattern matched the 'hotter-is-better' hypothesis. With increasing temperatures, low-latitude larvae decreased C:N, while high-latitude larvae increased C:N. These patterns were driven by associated changes in N contents, while C contents did not respond to temperature. Consistent with the temperature-size rule and the thermal melanism hypothesis, body size and melanin levels decreased with warming. While all traits and associated macromolecules (except for metabolic rate that showed thermal compensation) assumed to underlie thermal responses in elemental composition showed thermal plasticity, these were largely independent and none could explain the stoichiometric TRCs. Our results highlight that thermal responses in elemental composition cannot be explained by traditionally assumed drivers, asking for a broader perspective including the thermal dependence of elemental fluxes. Another key implication is that thermal evolution can reverse the plastic stoichiometric thermal responses and hence reverse how warming may shape food web dynamics through changes in body composition at different latitudes.

Habitat, latitude and body mass influence the temperature dependence of metabolic rate

The sensitivity of metabolic rate to temperature constrains the climate in which ectotherms can function, yet the temperature dependence of metabolic rate may evolve in response to biotic and abiotic factors. We compiled a dataset on the temperature dependence of metabolic rate for heterotrophic ectotherms from studies that show a peak in metabolic rate at an optimal temperature (i.e. that describe the thermal performance curve for metabolic rate). We found that peak metabolic rates were lower in aquatic than terrestrial habitats and increased with body mass, latitude and the optimal temperature. In addition, the optimal temperature decreased with latitude. These results support competing hypotheses about metabolic rate adaptation, with hotter being better in the tropics but colder being better towards the poles. Moreover, our results suggest that the temperature dependence of metabolic rate is more complex than previously suggested.

Thermal Niche Differentiation in the Benthic Diatom Cylindrotheca closterium (Bacillariophyceae) Complex

Coastal waters are expected to undergo severe warming in the coming decades. Very little is known about how diatoms, the dominant primary producers in these habitats, will cope with these changes. We investigated the thermal niche of Cylindrotheca closterium, a widespread benthic marine diatom, using 24 strains collected over a wide latitudinal gradient. A multi-marker phylogeny in combination with a species delimitation approach shows that C. closterium represents a (pseudo)cryptic species complex, and this is reflected in distinct growth response patterns in terms of optimum growth temperature, maximum growth rate, and thermal niche width. Strains from the same clade displayed a similar thermal response, suggesting niche conservation between closely related strains. Due to their lower maximum growth rate and smaller thermal niche width, we expect the polar species to be particularly sensitive to warming, and, in the absence of adaptation, to be replaced with species from lower latitudes.

Linking thermal adaptation and life-history theory explains latitudinal patterns of voltinism

Insect life cycles are adapted to a seasonal climate by expressing alternative voltinism phenotypes-the number of generations in a year. Variation in voltinism phenotypes along latitudinal gradients may be generated by developmental traits at critical life stages, such as eggs. Both voltinism and egg development are thermally determined traits, yet independently derived models of voltinism and thermal adaptation refer to the evolution of dormancy and thermal sensitivity of development rate, respectively, as independent influences on life history. To reconcile these models and test their respective predictions, we characterized patterns of voltinism and thermal response of egg development rate along a latitudinal temperature gradient using the matchstick grasshopper genus Warramaba. We found remarkably strong variation in voltinism patterns, as well as corresponding egg dormancy patterns and thermal responses of egg development. Our results show that the switch in voltinism along the latitudinal gradient was explained by the combined predictions of the evolution of voltinism and of thermal adaptation. We suggest that latitudinal patterns in thermal responses and corresponding life histories need to consider the evolution of thermal response curves within the context of seasonal temperature cycles rather than based solely on optimality and trade-offs in performance. This article is part of the theme issue 'Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen'.

Thermal performance across levels of biological organization

Thermal performance curves are widely used to describe how ambient temperature impacts different attributes of ectothermic organisms, from protein function to life-history traits, and to predict the potential effects of global warming on ecological systems. Nonetheless, from an analytical standpoint, they remain primarily heuristic and few attempts have been made to develop a formal framework to characterize these curves and disentangle which factors contribute to their variation. Here we employ a nonlinear regression approach to assess if they vary systematically in shape depending on the performance proxy of choice. We compare curves at contrasting levels of organization, namely photosynthetic rates in plants ( n = 43), running speeds in lizards ( n = 51) and intrinsic rates of population increase in insects ( n = 47), and show with discriminant analyses that differences lie in a single dimension accounting for 99.1% of the variation, resulting in 75.8% of classification accuracy. Differences revolve primarily around the thermal range for elevated performance (greater than or equal to 50% of maximum performance), which is broader for photosynthetic rates (median of 26.4°C), intermediate for running speeds (19.5°C) and narrower for intrinsic rates of increase (12.5°C). We contend, confounding taxonomic factors aside, that these differences reflect contrasting levels of biological organization, and hypothesize that the thermal range for elevated performance should decrease at higher organization levels. In this scenario, instantaneous or short-term measures of performance may grossly overestimate the thermal safety margins for population growth and reproduction. Taken together, our analyses suggest that descriptors of the curve are highly correlated and respond in tandem, potentially resulting in systematic variation in shape across organization levels. Future studies should take into consideration this potential bias, address if it constitutes a general pattern and, if so, explain why and how it emerges. This article is part of the theme issue 'Physiological diversity, biodiversity patterns and global climate change: testing key hypotheses involving temperature and oxygen'.

Phenotypic plasticity in locomotor performance of a monophyletic group of weevils accords with the warmer is better hypothesis

Ectotherms may respond to variable environmental conditions by altering their phenotypes. Phenotypic plasticity was initially thought to be beneficial to an organism's physiological fitness. Several alternative hypotheses, have, however, been proposed with growing empirical support. In this study, we test the full suite of hypotheses by investigating acclimation responses of locomotor performance for nine populations of five species of sub-Antarctic weevils, using static and fluctuating temperatures. Species showed typical locomotion thermal performance curves with temperature of the maximum speed (Topt) ranging between 22.3±1.7°C (mean±s.e.) and 31.1±0.7°C. For most species Topt was not affected by acclimation. For maximum speed (Umax), significant, positive effects of acclimation were found for all species except a supralittoral one. Individuals acclimated to 0°C showed much lower values than the other two acclimation treatments (15°C and fluctuating 0-15°C). Performance breadth (the index of the breadth of the curve, Tbr) typically showed little response to acclimation. None of the traits of the supralittoral species were affected by acclimation treatment. Responses to stable and fluctuating temperature treatments were similar. Our findings also revealed that the mean estimated activation energy 0.40±0.015 eV (mean±s.e.) was lower than for other herbivores, the category to which these weevils belong, suggesting that some form of compensation in the rate-temperature relationship may be evident. Thus, we typically found support for the warmer is better hypothesis for acclimation of locomotor performance, though some compensation is evident.

Fast adaptation of tropical diatoms to increased warming with trade-offs

Ocean warming with climate change is forcing marine organisms to shift their distributions polewards and phenology. In warm tropical seas, evolutionary adaptation by local species to warming will be crucial to avoid predicted desertification and reduction in diversity. However, little is known about the adaptation of phytoplankton in warm seas. Across the ocean, diatomic microalgae are the main primary producers in cold waters; they also contribute to tropical communities where they play a necessary role in the biological pump. Here we show that four species of diatoms isolated from the tropical Red Sea adapted to warming conditions (30 °C) after 200–600 generations by using various thermal strategies. Two of the warming adapted species increased their optimal growth temperature (T_opt) and maximum growth rate. The other two diatoms did not increase T_opt and growth, but shifted from specialist to generalist increasing their maximum critical thermal limit. Our data show that tropical diatoms can adapt to warming, although trade offs on photosynthetic efficiency, high irradiance stress, and lower growth rate could alter their competitive fitness. Our findings suggest that adaptive responses to warming among phytoplankton could help to arrest the sharp decline in diversity resulting from climate change that is predicted for tropical waters.

A widespread thermodynamic effect, but maintenance of biological rates through space across life's major domains

For over a century, the hypothesis of temperature compensation, the maintenance of similar biological rates in species from different thermal environments, has remained controversial. An alternative idea, that fitness is greater at higher temperatures (the thermodynamic effect), has gained increasing traction. This alternative hypothesis is also being used to understand large-scale biodiversity responses to environmental change. Yet evidence in favour of each of these contrasting hypotheses continues to emerge. In consequence, the fundamental nature of organismal thermal responses and its implications remain unresolved. Here, we investigate these ideas explicitly using a global dataset of 619 observations of four categories of organismal performance, spanning 14 phyla and 403 species. In agreement with both hypotheses, we show a positive relationship between the temperature of maximal performance rate (Topt) and environmental temperature (Tenv) for developmental rate and locomotion speed, but not growth or photosynthesis rate. Next, we demonstrate that relationships between Tenv and the maximal performance rate (Umax) are rarely significant and positive, as expected if a thermodynamic effect predominates. By contrast, a positive relationship between Topt and Umax is always present, but markedly weaker than theoretically predicted. These outcomes demonstrate that while some form of thermodynamic effect exists, ample scope is present for biochemical and physiological adaptation to thermal environments in the form of temperature compensation.

Combined effects of thermal conditions and food availability on thermal tolerance of the marine bivalve, Perna viridis

Organisms can mitigate the effects of long term variation in environmental conditions through acclimation, which involves changes in various physiological responses. To elucidate the possible effects of temperature and food concentrations on acclimation capacity, physiological responses of the mussel, Perna viridis, were measured after individuals were held for six weeks under varying temperatures and food availability. Warm-acclimated mussels experiencing higher food levels had significantly greater upper thermal limits than those maintained on lower food levels. In contrast, the upper thermal limits of cold-acclimated mussels were not affected by food levels. For warm-acclimated mussels, differences in upper thermal limits were likely due to rapid depletion of energy storage as predicted by Dynamic Energy Budget model simulations for P. viridis exposed to lower food levels. Clearance rates of cold-acclimated mussels were significantly lower than warm-acclimated mussels, regardless of food availability. The impacts of lower food acquisition on energy storage, however, could be compensated by lower metabolic rates of the cold-acclimated mussels. The availability and the ability to acquire food are not, therefore, the main drivers differentiating between the upper thermal tolerances of cold- and warm-acclimated mussels, but these differences are driven by the past thermal history the mussels experienced. The temperature tolerance range of P. viridis showed a positive shift to tolerate higher temperatures after acclimation. Such flexibility in thermal tolerance implies P. viridis has high capacity to acclimate to novel environments, which will enhance its future success given its commercial importance as an aquaculture species.

Role of carbon allocation efficiency in the temperature dependence of autotroph growth rates

Relating the temperature dependence of photosynthetic biomass production to underlying metabolic rates in autotrophs is crucial for predicting the effects of climatic temperature fluctuations on the carbon balance of ecosystems. We present a mathematical model that links thermal performance curves (TPCs) of photosynthesis, respiration, and carbon allocation efficiency to the exponential growth rate of a population of photosynthetic autotroph cells. Using experiments with the green alga, Chlorella vulgaris, we apply the model to show that the temperature dependence of carbon allocation efficiency is key to understanding responses of growth rates to warming at both ecological and longer-term evolutionary timescales. Finally, we assemble a dataset of multiple terrestrial and aquatic autotroph species to show that the effects of temperature-dependent carbon allocation efficiency on potential growth rate TPCs are expected to be consistent across taxa. In particular, both the thermal sensitivity and the optimal temperature of growth rates are expected to change significantly due to temperature dependence of carbon allocation efficiency alone. Our study provides a foundation for understanding how the temperature dependence of carbon allocation determines how population growth rates respond to temperature.

Warming neutralizes host-specific competitive advantages between a native and invasive herbivore

Although native-invasive species interactions have become a common mechanism shaping ecosystems, whether these interactions shift under warming remains unclear. To investigate how warming may affect native and invasive species separately and together (intraspecific and interspecific competition, respectively) and whether any warming impact is resource dependent, we examined the performance of two competing herbivores (native Pieris canidia and invasive P. rapae) on two common host plants under three temperature settings (control, 3 °C, and 6 °C warming using environmental chambers). The results revealed that warming benefited the development and growth of both Pieris under intraspecific competition, but the benefits were host-plant dependent. Notably, the native or invasive Pieris gained an advantage from interspecific competition (host-plant dependent), but warming neutralized the competitive advantages of either Pieris species. These findings raise the possibility that warming-induced shifts in competitive status may become a crucial mechanism shaping ecosystems worldwide, because most ecosystems are challenged by species invasion and warming. Moreover, this study revealed a discrepancy in species thermal performance between intra- and interspecific competition. Therefore, to predict native-invasive species competition under warming, current thermal performance applications should use species performance curves derived from interspecific rather than intraspecific competition studies (although the latter is more readily available).

Temperature-driven selection on metabolic traits increases the strength of an algal-grazer interaction in naturally warmed streams

Trophic interactions are important determinants of the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Because the metabolism and consumption rates of ectotherms increase sharply with temperature, there are major concerns that global warming will increase the strength of trophic interactions, destabilizing food webs, and altering ecosystem structure and function. We used geothermally warmed streams that span an 11°C temperature gradient to investigate the interplay between temperature-driven selection on traits related to metabolism and resource acquisition, and the interaction strength between the keystone gastropod grazer, Radix balthica, and a common algal resource. Populations from a warm stream (~28°C) had higher maximal metabolic rates and optimal temperatures than their counterparts from a cold stream (~17°C). We found that metabolic rates of the population originating from the warmer stream were higher across all measurement temperatures. A reciprocal transplant experiment demonstrated that the interaction strengths between the grazer and its algal resource were highest for both populations when transplanted into the warm stream. In line with the thermal dependence of respiration, interaction strengths involving grazers from the warm stream were always higher than those with grazers from the cold stream. These results imply that increases in metabolism and resource consumption mediated by the direct, thermodynamic effects of higher temperatures on physiological rates are not mitigated by metabolic compensation in the long term, and suggest that warming could increase the strength of algal-grazer interactions with likely knock-on effects for the biodiversity and productivity of aquatic ecosystems.

Physiological responses to elevated temperature across the geographic range of a terrestrial salamander

Widespread species often possess physiological mechanisms for coping with thermal heterogeneity, and uncovering these mechanisms provides insight into species responses to climate change. The emergence of non-invasive corticosterone (CORT) assays allows us to rapidly assess physiological responses to environmental change on a large scale. We lack, however, a basic understanding of how temperature affects CORT, and whether temperature and CORT interactively affect performance. Here, we examine the effects of elevated temperature on CORT and whole-organism performance in a terrestrial salamander, Plethodon cinereus, across a latitudinal gradient. Using water-borne hormone assays, we found that raising ambient temperature from 15 to 25°C increased CORT release at a similar rate for salamanders from all sites. However, CORT release rate was higher overall in the warmest, southernmost site. Elevated temperatures also affected physiological performance, but the effects differed among sites. Ingestion rate increased in salamanders from the warmer sites but remained the same for those from cooler sites. Mass gain was reduced for most individuals, though this reduction was more dramatic in salamanders from the cooler sites. We also found a temperature-dependent relationship between CORT and food conversion efficiency (i.e., the amount of mass gained per unit food ingested). CORT was negatively related to food conversion efficiency at 25°C but was unrelated at 15°C. Thus, the energetic gains of elevated ingestion rates may be counteracted by elevated CORT release rates experienced by salamanders in warmer environments. By integrating multiple physiological metrics, we highlight the complex relationships between temperature and individual responses to warming climates.

Developmental plasticity evolved according to specialist-generalist trade-offs in experimental populations of Drosophila melanogaster

We studied the evolution of developmental plasticity in populations of Drosophila melanogaster that evolved at either constant or fluctuating temperatures. Consistent with theory, genotypes that evolved at a constant 16°C or 25°C performed best when raised and tested at that temperature. Genotypes that evolved at fluctuating temperatures performed well at either temperature, but only when raised and tested at the same temperature. Our results confirm evolutionary patterns predicted by theory, including a loss of plasticity and a benefit of specialization in constant environments.

Continuous selection pressure to improve temperature acclimation of Tisochrysis lutea

Temperature plays a key role in outdoor industrial cultivation of microalgae. Improving the thermal tolerance of microalgae to both daily and seasonal temperature fluctuations can thus contribute to increase their annual productivity. A long term selection experiment was carried out to increase the thermal niche (temperature range for which the growth is possible) of a neutral lipid overproducing strain of Tisochrysis lutea. The experimental protocol consisted to submit cells to daily variations of temperature for 7 months. The stress intensity, defined as the amplitude of daily temperature variations, was progressively increased along successive selection cycles. Only the amplitude of the temperature variations were increased, the daily average temperature was kept constant along the experiment. This protocol resulted in a thermal niche increase by 3°C (+16.5%), with an enhancement by 9% of the maximal growth rate. The selection process also affected T. lutea physiology, with a feature generally observed for ‘cold-temperature’ type of adaptation. The amount of total and neutral lipids was significantly increased, and eventually productivity was increased by 34%. This seven month selection experiment, carried out in a highly dynamic environment, challenges some of the hypotheses classically advanced to explain the temperature response of microalgae.

Life history trade-offs, the intensity of competition, and coexistence in novel and evolving communities under climate change

The consequences of climate change for local biodiversity are little understood in process or mechanism, but these changes are likely to reflect both changing regional species pools and changing competitive interactions. Previous empirical work largely supports the idea that competition will intensify under climate change, promoting competitive exclusions and local extinctions, while theory and conceptual work indicate that relaxed competition may in fact buffer communities from biodiversity losses that are typically witnessed at broader spatial scales. In this review, we apply life history theory to understand the conditions under which these alternative scenarios may play out in the context of a range-shifting biota undergoing rapid evolutionary and environmental change, and at both leading-edge and trailing-edge communities. We conclude that, in general, warming temperatures are likely to reduce life history variation among competitors, intensifying competition in both established and novel communities. However, longer growing seasons, severe environmental stress and increased climatic variability associated with climate change may buffer these communities against intensified competition. The role of life history plasticity and evolution has been previously underappreciated in community ecology, but may hold the key to understanding changing species interactions and local biodiversity under changing climates.This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'.

Trade-offs and evolution of thermal adaptation in the Irish potato famine pathogen Phytophthora infestans

Temperature is one of the most important environmental parameters with crucial impacts on nearly all biological processes. Due to anthropogenic activity, average air temperatures are expected to increase by a few degrees in coming decades, accompanied by an increased occurrence of extreme temperature events. Such global trends are likely to have various major impacts on human society through their influence on natural ecosystems, food production and biotic interactions, including diseases. In this study, we used a combination of statistical genetics, experimental evolution and common garden experiments to investigate the evolutionary potential for thermal adaptation in the potato late blight pathogen, Phytophthora infestans, and infer its likely response to changing temperatures. We found a trade-off associated with thermal adaptation to heterogeneous environments in P. infestans, with the degree of the trade-off peaking approximately at the pathogen's optimum growth temperature. A genetic trade-off in thermal adaptation was also evidenced by the negative association between a strain's growth rate and its thermal range for growth, and warm climates selecting for a low pathogen growth rate. We also found a mirror effect of phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation on growth rate. At below the optimum, phenotypic plasticity enhances pathogen's growth rate but nature selects for slower growing genotypes when temperature increases. At above the optimum, phenotypic plasticity reduces pathogen's growth rate but natural selection favours for faster growing genotypes when temperature increases further. We conclude from these findings that the growth rate of P. infestans will only be marginally affected by global warming.

Divergence of gastropod life history in contrasting thermal environments in a geothermal lake

Experiments using natural populations have provided mixed support for thermal adaptation models, probably because the conditions are often confounded with additional environmental factors like seasonality. The contrasting geothermal environments within Lake Mývatn, northern Iceland, provide a unique opportunity to evaluate thermal adaptation models using closely located natural populations. We conducted laboratory common garden and field reciprocal transplant experiments to investigate how thermal origin influences the life history of Radix balthica snails originating from stable cold (6 °C), stable warm (23 °C) thermal environments or from areas with seasonal temperature variation. Supporting thermal optimality models, warm-origin snails survived poorly at 6 °C in the common garden experiment and better than cold-origin and seasonal-origin snails in the warm habitat in the reciprocal transplant experiment. Contrary to thermal adaptation models, growth rate in both experiments was highest in the warm populations irrespective of temperature, indicating cogradient variation. The optimal temperatures for growth and reproduction were similar irrespective of origin, but cold-origin snails always had the lowest performance, and seasonal-origin snails often performed at an intermediate level compared to snails originating in either stable environment. Our results indicate that central life-history traits can differ in their mode of evolution, with survival following the predictions of thermal optimality models, whereas ecological constraints have shaped the evolution of growth rates in local populations.

Antigenic diversification is correlated with increased thermostability in a mammalian virus

The theory of plastogenetic congruence posits that ultimately, the pressure to maintain function in the face of biomolecular destabilization produces robustness. As temperature goes up so does destabilization. Thus, genetic robustness, defined as phenotypic constancy despite mutation, should correlate with survival during thermal challenge. We tested this hypothesis using vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV). We produced two sets of evolved strains after selection for higher thermostability by either preincubation at 37°C or by incubation at 40°C during infection. These VSV populations became more thermostable and also more fit in the absence of thermal selection, demonstrating an absence of tradeoffs. Eleven out of 12 evolved populations had a fixed, nonsynonymous substitution in the nucleocapsid (N) open reading frame. There was a partial correlation between thermostability and mutational robustness that was observed when the former was measured at 42°C, but not at 37°C. These results are consistent with our earlier work and suggest that the relationship between robustness and thermostability is complex. Surprisingly, many of the thermostable strains also showed increased resistance to monoclonal antibody and polyclonal sera, including sera from natural hosts. These data suggest that evolved thermostability may lead to antigenic diversification and an increased ability to escape immune surveillance in febrile hosts, and potentially to an improved robustness. These relationships have important implications not only in terms of viral pathogenesis, but also for the development of vaccine vectors and oncolytic agents.

Local divergence of thermal reaction norms among amphibian populations is affected by pond temperature variation

Although temperature variation is known to cause large-scale adaptive divergence, its potential role as a selective factor over microgeographic scales is less well-understood. Here, we investigated how variation in breeding pond temperature affects divergence in multiple physiological (thermal performance curve and critical thermal maximum [CTmax]) and life-history (thermal developmental reaction norms) traits in a network of Rana arvalis populations. The results supported adaptive responses to face two main constraints limiting the evolution of thermal adaptation. First, we found support for the faster-slower model, indicating an adaptive response to compensate for the thermodynamic constraint of low temperatures in colder environments. Second, we found evidence for the generalist-specialist trade-off with populations from colder and less thermally variable environments exhibiting a specialist phenotype performing at higher rates but over a narrower range of temperatures. By contrast, the local optimal temperature for locomotor performance and CTmax did not match either mean or maximum pond temperatures. These results highlight the complexity of the adaptive multiple-trait thermal responses in natural populations, and the role of local thermal variation as a selective force driving diversity in life-history and physiological traits in the presence of gene flow.

Genetic variation, simplicity, and evolutionary constraints for function-valued traits

Understanding the patterns of genetic variation and constraint for continuous reaction norms, growth trajectories, and other function-valued traits is challenging. We describe and illustrate a recent analytical method, simple basis analysis (SBA), that uses the genetic variance-covariance (G) matrix to identify "simple" directions of genetic variation and genetic constraints that have straightforward biological interpretations. We discuss the parallels between the eigenvectors (principal components) identified by principal components analysis (PCA) and the simple basis (SB) vectors identified by SBA. We apply these methods to estimated G matrices obtained from 10 studies of thermal performance curves and growth curves. Our results suggest that variation in overall size across all ages represented most of the genetic variance in growth curves. In contrast, variation in overall performance across all temperatures represented less than one-third of the genetic variance in thermal performance curves in all cases, and genetic trade-offs between performance at higher versus lower temperatures were often important. The analyses also identify potential genetic constraints on patterns of early and later growth in growth curves. We suggest that SBA can be a useful complement or alternative to PCA for identifying biologically interpretable directions of genetic variation and constraint in function-valued traits.

Changing folding and binding stability in a viral coat protein: a comparison between substitutions accessible through mutation and those fixed by natural selection

Previous studies have shown that most random amino acid substitutions destabilize protein folding (i.e. increase the folding free energy). No analogous studies have been carried out for protein-protein binding. Here we use a structure-based model of the major coat protein in a simple virus, bacteriophage φX174, to estimate the free energy of folding of a single coat protein and binding of five coat proteins within a pentameric unit. We confirm and extend previous work in finding that most accessible substitutions destabilize both protein folding and protein-protein binding. We compare the pool of accessible substitutions with those observed among the φX174-like wild phage and in experimental evolution with φX174. We find that observed substitutions have smaller effects on stability than expected by chance. An analysis of adaptations at high temperatures suggests that selection favors either substitutions with no effect on stability or those that simultaneously stabilize protein folding and slightly destabilize protein binding. We speculate that these mutations might involve adjusting the rate of capsid assembly. At normal laboratory temperature there is little evidence of directional selection. Finally, we show that cumulative changes in stability are highly variable; sometimes they are well beyond the bounds of single substitution changes and sometimes they are not. The variation leads us to conclude that phenotype selection acts on more than just stability. Instances of larger cumulative stability change (never via a single substitution despite their availability) lead us to conclude that selection views stability at a local, not a global, level.