Genetic analysis of life-history constraint and evolution in a wild ungulate population

Antler size in red deer: declining selection and increasing genetic variance with age, but little senescence

While senescence is a common occurrence in wild populations, not all traits decline with age simultaneously and some do not show any senescence. A lack of senescence in secondary sexual traits is thought to be due to their importance for reproductive success. However, if reproductive success senesces, why would secondary sexual traits apparently not senesce? Here, we explored this question in a wild population of red deer (Cervus elaphus) using antler form (number of points), a secondary sexual trait which shows little senescence, despite the occurrence of reproductive senescence. In line with expectations for traits that senesce, genetic variance in antler form increased with age and selection weakened with age. Therefore, there was no indication that a stronger selection on individuals that survived to older ages was countering the dilution of selection due to fewer individuals being alive. Furthermore, the effect of selective disappearance masking a slight decline in antler form in the oldest years was small. Interestingly, although genetic variance and positive selection of antler form were found, there was no evidence of a response to selection, supporting a genetic decoupling of antler senescence and reproductive senescence. Finally, a positive genetic covariance in antler form among age classes provides a possible explanation for the lack of senescence. These findings suggest that the antler form is under a genetic constraint that prevents it from senescing, providing an interesting evolutionary explanation for negligible senescence in a secondary sexual trait, and consequently, the existence of asynchrony in senescence among traits within populations.

Demographic and evolutionary consequences of hunting of wild birds

Hunting has a long tradition in human evolutionary history and remains a common leisure activity or an important source of food. Herein, we first briefly review the literature on the demographic consequences of hunting and associated analytical methods. We then address the question of potential selective hunting and its possible genetic/evolutionary consequences. Birds have historically been popular models for demographic studies, and the huge amount of census and ringing data accumulated over the last century has paved the way for research about the demographic effects of harvesting. By contrast, the literature on the evolutionary consequences of harvesting is dominated by studies on mammals (especially ungulates) and fish. In these taxa, individuals selected for harvest often have particular traits such as large body size or extravagant secondary sexual characters (e.g. antlers, horns, etc.). Our review shows that targeting individuals according to such genetically heritable traits can exert strong selective pressures and alter the evolutionary trajectory of populations for these or correlated traits. Studies focusing on the evolutionary consequences of hunting in birds are extremely rare, likely because birds within populations appear much more similar, and do not display individual differences to the same extent as many mammals and fishes. Nevertheless, even without conscious choice by hunters, there remains the potential for selection through hunting in birds, for example by genetically inherited traits such as personality or pace-of-life. We emphasise that because so many bird species experience high hunting pressure, the possible selective effect of harvest in birds and its evolutionary consequences deserves far more attention, and that hunting may be one major driver of bird evolutionary trajectories that should be carefully considered in wildlife management schemes.

Micro-evolutionary response of spring migration timing in a wild seabird

In the context of rapid climate change, phenological advance is a key adaptation for which evidence is accumulating across taxa. Among vertebrates, phenotypic plasticity is known to underlie most of this phenological change, while evidence for micro-evolution is very limited and challenging to obtain. In this study, we quantified phenotypic and genetic trends in timing of spring migration using 8,032 dates of arrival at the breeding grounds obtained from observations on 1,715 individual common terns (Sterna hirundo) monitored across 27 years, and tested whether these trends were consistent with predictions of a micro-evolutionary response to selection. We observed a strong phenotypic advance of 9.3 days in arrival date, of which c. 5% was accounted for by an advance in breeding values. The Breeder's equation and Robertson's Secondary Theorem of Selection predicted qualitatively similar evolutionary responses to selection, and these theoretical predictions were largely consistent with our estimated genetic pattern. Overall, our study provides rare evidence for micro-evolution underlying (part of) an adaptive response to climate change in the wild, and illustrates how a combination of adaptive micro-evolution and phenotypic plasticity facilitated a shift towards earlier spring migration in this free-living population of common terns.

The Unusual Value of Long-Term Studies of Individuals: The Example of the Isle of Rum Red Deer Project

Long-term studies of individuals enable incisive investigations of questions across ecology and evolution. Here, we illustrate this claim by reference to our long-term study of red deer on the Isle of Rum, Scotland. This project has established many of the characteristics of social organization, selection, and population ecology typical of large, polygynous, seasonally breeding mammals, with wider implications for our understanding of sexual selection and the evolution of sex differences, as well as for their population dynamics and population management. As molecular genetic techniques have developed, the project has pivoted to investigate evolutionary genetic questions, also breaking new ground in this field. With ongoing advances in genomics and statistical approaches and the development of increasingly sophisticated ways to assay new phenotypic traits, the questions that long-term studies such as the red deer study can answer become both broader and ever more sophisticated. They also offer powerful means of understanding the effects of ongoing climate change on wild populations.

Genetic variance in fitness indicates rapid contemporary adaptive evolution in wild animals

The rate of adaptive evolution, the contribution of selection to genetic changes that increase mean fitness, is determined by the additive genetic variance in individual relative fitness. To date, there are few robust estimates of this parameter for natural populations, and it is therefore unclear whether adaptive evolution can play a meaningful role in short-term population dynamics. We developed and applied quantitative genetic methods to long-term datasets from 19 wild bird and mammal populations and found that, while estimates vary between populations, additive genetic variance in relative fitness is often substantial and, on average, twice that of previous estimates. We show that these rates of contemporary adaptive evolution can affect population dynamics and hence that natural selection has the potential to partly mitigate effects of current environmental change.

Genomic analysis reveals a polygenic architecture of antler morphology in wild red deer (Cervus elaphus)

Sexually selected traits show large variation and rapid evolution across the animal kingdom, yet genetic variation often persists within populations despite apparent directional selection. A key step in solving this long-standing paradox is to determine the genetic architecture of sexually selected traits to understand evolutionary drivers and constraints at the genomic level. Antlers are a form of sexual weaponry in male red deer (Cervus elaphus). On the island of Rum, Scotland, males with larger antlers have increased breeding success, yet there has been no evidence of any response to selection at the genetic level. To try and understand the mechanisms underlying this observation, we investigate the genetic architecture of ten antler traits and their principal components using genomic data from >38,000 SNPs. We estimate the heritabilities and genetic correlations of the antler traits using a genomic relatedness approach. We then use genome-wide association and haplotype-based regional heritability to identify regions of the genome underlying antler morphology, and an empirical Bayes approach to estimate the underlying distributions of allele effect sizes. We show that antler morphology is highly repeatable over an individual's lifetime, heritable and has a polygenic architecture and that almost all antler traits are positively genetically correlated with some loci identified as having pleiotropic effects. Our findings suggest that a large mutational target and genetic covariances among antler traits, in part maintained by pleiotropy, are likely to contribute to the maintenance of genetic variation in antler morphology in this population.

Character displacement in the presence of multiple trait differences: Evolution of the storage effect in germination and growth

Ecological character displacement is a prominent hypothesis for the maintenance of ecological differences between species that are critical to stable coexistence. Models of character displacement often ascribe interspecific competitive interactions to a single character, but multiple characters contribute to competition, and their effects on selection can be nonadditive. Focusing on one character, we ask if other characters that affect competition alter evolutionary outcomes for the focal character. We address this question using the variable environment seed bank model for two species with two traits. The focal trait is the temporal pattern of germination, which is evolutionary labile. The other trait is the temporal pattern of plant growth, which is assumed fixed. We ask whether evolutionary divergence of germination patterns between species depends on species differences in plant growth. Patterns of growth can affect selection on germination patterns in two ways. First, cues present at germination can provide information about future growth. Second, germination and growth jointly determine the biomass of plants, which determines demand for resources. Germination and growth contribute to the selection gradient in distinct components, one density-independent and the other density-dependent. Importantly, the relative strengths of the components are key. When the density-dependent component is stronger, displacement in germination patterns between species is larger. Stronger cues at germination strengthen the density-independent component by increasing the benefits of germinating in years of favorable growth. But cues also affect the density-dependent component by boosting a species' biomass, and hence its competitive effect, in good years. Consequently, cues weaken character displacement when growth patterns are similar for two competitors, but favor displacement when growth patterns are species-specific. Understanding how these selection components change between contexts can help understand the origin and maintenance of species differences in germination patterns in temporally fluctuating environments.

Natural and human-induced environmental changes and their effects on adaptive potential of wild animal populations

A major challenge of evolutionary ecology over the next decades is to understand and predict the consequences of the current rapid and important environmental changes on wild populations. Extinction risk of species is linked to populations' evolutionary potential and to their ability to express adaptive phenotypic plasticity. There is thus a vital need to quantify how selective pressures, quantitative genetics parameters, and phenotypic plasticity, for multiple traits in wild animal populations, may vary with changes in the environment. Here I review our previous research that integrated ecological and evolutionary theories with molecular ecology, quantitative genetics, and long-term monitoring of individually marked wild animals. Our results showed that assessing evolutionary and plastic changes over time and space, using multi-trait approaches, under a realistic range of environmental conditions are crucial steps toward improving our understanding of the evolution and adaptation of natural populations. Our current and future work focusses on assessing the limits of adaptive potential by determining the factors constraining the evolvability of plasticity, those generating covariation among genetic variance and selection, as well as indirect genetic effects, which can affect population's capacity to adjust to environmental changes. In doing so, we aim to provide an improved assessment of the spatial and temporal scale of evolutionary processes in wild animal populations.

Stabilizing selection and adaptive evolution in a combination of two traits in an arctic ungulate

Stabilizing selection is thought to be common in wild populations and act as one of the main evolutionary mechanisms, which constrain phenotypic variation. When multiple traits interact to create a combined phenotype, correlational selection may be an important process driving adaptive evolution. Here, we report on phenotypic selection and evolutionary changes in two natal traits in a semidomestic population of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in northern Finland. The population has been closely monitored since 1969, and detailed data have been collected on individuals since they were born. Over the length of the study period (1969-2015), we found directional and stabilizing selection toward a combination of earlier birth date and heavier birth mass with an intermediate optimum along the major axis of the selection surface. In addition, we demonstrate significant changes in mean traits toward earlier birth date and heavier birth mass, with corresponding genetic changes in breeding values during the study period. Our results demonstrate evolutionary changes in a combination of two traits, which agree closely with estimated patterns of phenotypic selection. Knowledge of the selective surface for combinations of genetically correlated traits are vital to predict how population mean phenotypes and fitness are affected when environments change.

The Missing Response to Selection in the Wild

Although there are many examples of contemporary directional selection, evidence for responses to selection that match predictions are often missing in quantitative genetic studies of wild populations. This is despite the presence of genetic variation and selection pressures – theoretical prerequisites for the response to selection. This conundrum can be explained by statistical issues with accurate parameter estimation, and by biological mechanisms that interfere with the response to selection. These biological mechanisms can accelerate or constrain this response. These mechanisms are generally studied independently but might act simultaneously. We therefore integrated these mechanisms to explore their potential combined effect. This has implications for explaining the apparent evolutionary stasis of wild populations and the conservation of wildlife.

Recent discoveries at the intersection of quantitative genetics and evolutionary ecology are challenging our views on the potential of wild populations to respond to selection.

Multiple biological mechanisms can disconnect genetic variation from the response to selection in the wild. We highlight areas for future research.

We provide an integrative framework that can be used to qualitatively assess the combined influence of these mechanisms on the response to selection.

Does Hormonal Pleiotropy Shape the Evolution of Performance and Life History Traits?

SYNOPSIS

Hormonal pleiotropy occurs when a part of the endocrine system (e.g., hormone concentrations) influences the expression of two or more phenotypes. Although hormonal pleiotropy may have similar evolutionary consequences as genetic pleiotropy, most conceptual and empirical work on its putative evolutionary consequences to date has focused on identifying whether the different components of an endocrine axis (titer, receptor expression, etc.) that affect trait expression are themselves able to evolve independently from one another. This is important because if these different components evolve together, the expression of two traits affected by the same hormone may be yoked and evolve non-independently. Here, we first describe methodological approaches used to identify how hormonal pleiotropy could cause the co-evolution of performance and life history traits. We then focus on a similar but less studied concept about how hormonal pleiotropy can affect phenotypic responses to selection. If the expression of two traits is affected by the same hormone, the magnitude of the phenotypic response to selection may be exacerbated or retarded compared to the absence of this hormonal pleiotropy. We use classical concepts from quantitative genetics to discuss an approach for identifying whether hormonal pleiotropy has such evolutionary consequences using data collected from longitudinal studies of wild animals. We develop a simple quantitative genetics model to derive predictions about the conditions under which hormonal pleiotropy would affect the response to selection. We focus on performance and life history traits and how the effects of hormonal pleiotropy on the evolution of these traits depend upon the genetic correlations between the hormone and traits as well as the direction and strength of selection on the two traits. Finally, we review the literature for examples that have estimated these model parameters to characterize the studies that have or have not found support for these model predictions.

Will human influences on evolutionary dynamics in the wild pervade the Anthropocene?

The five most pervasive anthropogenic threats to biodiversity are over-exploitation, habitat changes, climate change, invasive species, and pollution. Since all of these threats can affect intraspecific biodiversity—including genetic variation within populations—humans have the potential to induce contemporary microevolution in wild populations. We highlight recent empirical studies that have explored the effects of these anthropogenic threats to intraspecific biodiversity in the wild. We conclude that it is critical that we move towards a predictive framework that integrates a better understanding of contemporary microevolution to multiple threats to forecast the fate of natural populations in a changing world.

Harvest-induced evolution: insights from aquatic and terrestrial systems

Commercial and recreational harvests create selection pressures for fitness-related phenotypic traits that are partly under genetic control. Consequently, harvesting can drive evolution in targeted traits. However, the quantification of harvest-induced evolutionary life history and phenotypic changes is challenging, because both density-dependent feedback and environmental changes may also affect these changes through phenotypic plasticity. Here, we synthesize current knowledge and uncertainties on six key points: (i) whether or not harvest-induced evolution is happening, (ii) whether or not it is beneficial, (iii) how it shapes biological systems, (iv) how it could be avoided, (v) its importance relative to other drivers of phenotypic changes, and (vi) whether or not it should be explicitly accounted for in management. We do this by reviewing findings from aquatic systems exposed to fishing and terrestrial systems targeted by hunting. Evidence from aquatic systems emphasizes evolutionary effects on age and size at maturity, while in terrestrial systems changes are seen in weapon size and date of parturition. We suggest that while harvest-induced evolution is likely to occur and negatively affect populations, the rate of evolutionary changes and their ecological implications can be managed efficiently by simply reducing harvest intensity.This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'.

Dynamic Acquisition and Loss of Dual-Obligate Symbionts in the Plant-Sap-Feeding Adelgidae (Hemiptera: Sternorrhyncha: Aphidoidea)

Sap-sucking insects typically engage in obligate relationships with symbiotic bacteria that play nutritional roles in synthesizing nutrients unavailable or in scarce supply from the plant-sap diets of their hosts. Adelgids are sap-sucking insects with complex life cycles that involve alternation between conifer tree species. While all adelgid species feed on spruce during the sexual phase of their life cycle, each adelgid species belongs to a major lineage that feeds on a distinct genus of conifers as their alternate host. Previous work on adelgid symbionts had discovered pairs of symbionts within each host species, and unusual diversity across the insect family, but left several open questions regarding the status of bacterial associates. Here, we explored the consistency of symbionts within and across adelgid lineages, and sought evidence for facultative vs. obligate symbiont status. Representative species were surveyed for symbionts using 16S ribosomal DNA gene sequencing, confirming that different symbiont pairs were consistently present within each major adelgid lineage. Several approaches were used to establish whether symbionts exhibited characteristics of long-term, obligate mutualists. Patterns of symbiont presence across adelgid species and diversification with host insects suggested obligate relationships. Fluorescent in situ hybridization and electron microscopy localized symbionts to bacteriocyte cells within the bacteriome of each species (with one previously known exception), and detection of symbionts in eggs indicated their vertical transmission. Common characteristics of long-term obligate symbionts, such as nucleotide compositional bias and pleomorphic symbiont cell shape were also observed. Superimposing microbial symbionts on the adelgid phylogeny revealed a dynamic pattern of symbiont gains and losses over a relatively short period of time compared to other symbionts associated with sap-sucking insects, with each adelgid species possessing an older, “senior” symbiont and a younger “junior” symbiont. A hypothesis relating adelgid life cycles to relaxed constraints on symbionts is proposed, with the degradation of senior symbionts and repeated acquisition of more junior symbionts creating opportunities for repeated colonization of new alternate-conifer hosts by adelgids.

Conserved G-matrices of morphological and life-history traits among continental and island blue tit populations

The genetic variance-covariance matrix (G-matrix) summarizes the genetic architecture of multiple traits. It has a central role in the understanding of phenotypic divergence and the quantification of the evolutionary potential of populations. Laboratory experiments have shown that G-matrices can vary rapidly under divergent selective pressures. However, because of the demanding nature of G-matrix estimation and comparison in wild populations, the extent of its spatial variability remains largely unknown. In this study, we investigate spatial variation in G-matrices for morphological and life-history traits using long-term data sets from one continental and three island populations of blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) that have experienced contrasting population history and selective environment. We found no evidence for differences in G-matrices among populations. Interestingly, the phenotypic variance-covariance matrices (P) were divergent across populations, suggesting that using P as a substitute for G may be inadequate. These analyses also provide the first evidence in wild populations for additive genetic variation in the incubation period (that is, the period between last egg laid and hatching) in all four populations. Altogether, our results suggest that G-matrices may be stable across populations inhabiting contrasted environments, therefore challenging the results of previous simulation studies and laboratory experiments.

Selection on parental performance opposes selection for larger body mass in a wild population of blue tits

There is abundant evidence in many taxa for positive directional selection on body size, and yet little evidence for microevolutionary change. In many species, variation in body size is partly determined by the actions of parents, so a proposed explanation for stasis is the presence of a negative genetic correlation between direct and parental effects. Consequently, selecting genes for increased body size would result in a correlated decline in parental effects, reducing body size in the following generation. We show that these arguments implicitly assume that parental care is cost free, and that including a cost alters the predicted genetic architectures needed to explain stasis. Using a large cross-fostered population of blue tits, we estimate direct selection on parental effects for body mass, and show it is negative. Negative selection is consistent with a cost to parental care, mainly acting through a reduction in current fecundity rather than survival. Under these conditions, evolutionary stasis is possible for moderately negative genetic correlations between direct and parental effects. This is in contrast to the implausibly extreme correlations needed when care is assumed to be cost-free. Thus, we highlight the importance of accounting correctly for complete selection acting on traits across generations.

Bigger Is Fitter? Quantitative Genetic Decomposition of Selection Reveals an Adaptive Evolutionary Decline of Body Mass in a Wild Rodent Population

In natural populations, quantitative trait dynamics often do not appear to follow evolutionary predictions. Despite abundant examples of natural selection acting on heritable traits, conclusive evidence for contemporary adaptive evolution remains rare for wild vertebrate populations, and phenotypic stasis seems to be the norm. This so-called “stasis paradox” highlights our inability to predict evolutionary change, which is especially concerning within the context of rapid anthropogenic environmental change. While the causes underlying the stasis paradox are hotly debated, comprehensive attempts aiming at a resolution are lacking. Here, we apply a quantitative genetic framework to individual-based long-term data for a wild rodent population and show that despite a positive association between body mass and fitness, there has been a genetic change towards lower body mass. The latter represents an adaptive response to viability selection favouring juveniles growing up to become relatively small adults, i.e., with a low potential adult mass, which presumably complete their development earlier. This selection is particularly strong towards the end of the snow-free season, and it has intensified in recent years, coinciding which a change in snowfall patterns. Importantly, neither the negative evolutionary change, nor the selective pressures that drive it, are apparent on the phenotypic level, where they are masked by phenotypic plasticity and a non causal (i.e., non genetic) positive association between body mass and fitness, respectively. Estimating selection at the genetic level enabled us to uncover adaptive evolution in action and to identify the corresponding phenotypic selective pressure. We thereby demonstrate that natural populations can show a rapid and adaptive evolutionary response to a novel selective pressure, and that explicitly (quantitative) genetic models are able to provide us with an understanding of the causes and consequences of selection that is superior to purely phenotypic estimates of selection and evolutionary change.

A population of snow voles provides a rare example of contemporary adaptive evolution in the wild, but without a quantitative genetic perspective this genetic change, and the selective pressure that underlies it, would have gone undetected.

Biologists struggle to demonstrate adaptive evolution in wild populations: while they routinely observe natural selection on heritable traits, in only a handful of cases could they demonstrate an evolutionary response. Although various explanations for this paradox have been proposed, comprehensive empirical tests are lacking. Over the past years, we have therefore studied an alpine population of snow voles. Following all individuals throughout their lives, we found that body mass is heritable and that heavy voles have a higher fitness. Nevertheless, mean body mass did not increase. To resolve this, we disentangled the role of genes and the environment in shaping body mass. This revealed that the population did evolve, but that this was masked by environmental variation. Furthermore, although the genetic change was adaptive, it was opposite to our initial expectation: the population evolved to become lighter, not heavier. This was because although heavy voles have the highest fitness, their mass does not cause high fitness. Instead, it is the voles with the genes for being light that do best, especially when the first winter snow arrives early. This shows that populations can evolve rapidly, but that without a genetic perspective, this, and its underlying mechanism, may go undetected.

General Methods for Evolutionary Quantitative Genetic Inference from Generalized Mixed Models

Methods for inference and interpretation of evolutionary quantitative genetic parameters, and for prediction of the response to selection, are best developed for traits with normal distributions. Many traits of evolutionary interest, including many life history and behavioral traits, have inherently nonnormal distributions. The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) framework has become a widely used tool for estimating quantitative genetic parameters for nonnormal traits. However, whereas GLMMs provide inference on a statistically convenient latent scale, it is often desirable to express quantitative genetic parameters on the scale upon which traits are measured. The parameters of fitted GLMMs, despite being on a latent scale, fully determine all quantities of potential interest on the scale on which traits are expressed. We provide expressions for deriving each of such quantities, including population means, phenotypic (co)variances, variance components including additive genetic (co)variances, and parameters such as heritability. We demonstrate that fixed effects have a strong impact on those parameters and show how to deal with this by averaging or integrating over fixed effects. The expressions require integration of quantities determined by the link function, over distributions of latent values. In general cases, the required integrals must be solved numerically, but efficient methods are available and we provide an implementation in an R package, QGglmm. We show that known formulas for quantities such as heritability of traits with binomial and Poisson distributions are special cases of our expressions. Additionally, we show how fitted GLMM can be incorporated into existing methods for predicting evolutionary trajectories. We demonstrate the accuracy of the resulting method for evolutionary prediction by simulation and apply our approach to data from a wild pedigreed vertebrate population.

Similarity in G matrix structure among natural populations of Arabidopsis lyrata

Understanding the stability of the G matrix in natural populations is fundamental for predicting evolutionary trajectories; yet, the extent of its spatial variation and how this impacts responses to selection remain open questions. With a nested paternal half-sib crossing design and plants grown in a field experiment, we examined differences in the genetic architecture of flowering time, floral display, and plant size among four Scandinavian populations of Arabidopsis lyrata. Using a multivariate Bayesian framework, we compared the size, shape, and orientation of G matrices and assessed their potential to facilitate or constrain trait evolution. Flowering time, floral display and rosette size varied among populations and significant additive genetic variation within populations indicated potential to evolve in response to selection. Yet, some characters, including flowering start and number of flowers, may not evolve independently because of genetic correlations. Using a multivariate framework, we found few differences in the genetic architecture of traits among populations. G matrices varied mostly in size rather than shape or orientation. Differences in multivariate responses to selection predicted from differences in G were small, suggesting overall matrix similarity and shared constraints to trait evolution among populations.

Why are estimates of the strength and direction of natural selection from wild populations not congruent with observed rates of phenotypic change?

Observing adaptive evolution is difficult. In the fossil record, phenotypic evolution happens much more slowly than in artificial selection experiments or in experimental evolution. Yet measures of selection on phenotypic traits, with high heritabilities, suggest that phenotypic evolution should also be rapid in the wild, and this discrepancy often remains even after accounting for correlations between different traits (i.e. making predictions using the multivariate version of the breeder's equation). Are fitness correlations with quantitative traits adequate measures of selection in the wild? We should instead view fitnesses as average properties of genotypes, while acknowledging that they can be environment-dependent. Populations will tend to remain at fitness equilibria, once these are attained, and phenotypes will then be stable. Thus, studying the causes of adaptive change at a genotypic rather than phenotypic level may reveal that, typically, it is occurring too slowly to be easily observed.

Are heritability and selection related to population size in nature? Meta-analysis and conservation implications

It is widely thought that small populations should have less additive genetic variance and respond less efficiently to natural selection than large populations. Across taxa, we meta-analytically quantified the relationship between adult census population size (N) and additive genetic variance (proxy: h (2)) and found no reduction in h (2) with decreasing N; surveyed populations ranged from four to one million individuals (1735 h (2) estimates, 146 populations, 83 species). In terms of adaptation, ecological conditions may systematically differ between populations of varying N; the magnitude of selection these populations experience may therefore also differ. We thus also meta-analytically tested whether selection changes with N and found little evidence for systematic differences in the strength, direction or form of selection with N across different trait types and taxa (7344 selection estimates, 172 populations, 80 species). Collectively, our results (i) indirectly suggest that genetic drift neither overwhelms selection more in small than in large natural populations, nor weakens adaptive potential/h (2) in small populations, and (ii) imply that natural populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions, without consistently differing habitat quality at small N. However, we caution that the data are currently insufficient to determine whether some small populations may retain adaptive potential definitively. Further study is required into (i) selection and genetic variation in completely isolated populations of known N, under-represented taxonomic groups, and nongeneralist species, (ii) adaptive potential using multidimensional approaches and (iii) the nature of selective pressures for specific traits.

Harvest-induced phenotypic selection in an island population of moose, Alces alces

Empirical evidence strongly indicates that human exploitation has frequently led to rapid evolutionary changes in wild populations, yet the mechanisms involved are often poorly understood. Here, we applied a recently developed demographic framework for analyzing selection to data from a 20-year study of a wild population of moose, Alces alces. In this population, a genetic pedigree has been established all the way back to founders. We demonstrate harvest-induced directional selection for delayed birth dates in males and reduced body mass as calf in females. During the study period, birth date was delayed by 0.81 days per year for both sexes, whereas no significant changes occurred in calf body mass. Quantitative genetic analyses indicated that both traits harbored significant additive genetic variance. These results show that selective harvesting can induce strong selection that oppose natural selection. This may cause evolution of less favorable phenotypes that become maladaptive once harvesting ceases.

Gauging the Purported Costs of Public Data Archiving for Long-Term Population Studies

It was recently proposed that long-term population studies be exempted from the expectation that authors publicly archive the primary data underlying published articles. Such studies are valuable to many areas of ecological and evolutionary biological research, and multiple risks to their viability were anticipated as a result of public data archiving (PDA), ultimately all stemming from independent reuse of archived data. However, empirical assessment was missing, making it difficult to determine whether such fears are realistic. I addressed this by surveying data packages from long-term population studies archived in the Dryad Digital Repository. I found no evidence that PDA results in reuse of data by independent parties, suggesting the purported costs of PDA for long-term population studies have been overstated.

Divergent selection along climatic gradients in a rare central European endemic species, Saxifraga sponhemica

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The effects of habitat fragmentation on quantitative genetic variation in plant populations are still poorly known. Saxifraga sponhemica is a rare endemic of Central Europe with a disjunct distribution, and a stable and specialized habitat of treeless screes and cliffs. This study therefore used S. sponhemica as a model species to compare quantitative and molecular variation in order to explore (1) the relative importance of drift and selection in shaping the distribution of quantitative genetic variation along climatic gradients; (2) the relationship between plant fitness, quantitative genetic variation, molecular genetic variation and population size; and (3) the relationship between the differentiation of a trait among populations and its evolvability.

METHODS

Genetic variation within and among 22 populations from the whole distribution area of S. sponhemica was studied using RAPD (random amplified polymorphic DNA) markers, and climatic variables were obtained for each site. Seeds were collected from each population and germinated, and seedlings were transplanted into a common garden for determination of variation in plant traits.

KEY RESULTS

In contrast to previous results from rare plant species, strong evidence was found for divergent selection. Most population trait means of S. sponhemica were significantly related to climate gradients, indicating adaptation. Quantitative genetic differentiation increased with geographical distance, even when neutral molecular divergence was controlled for, and QST exceeded FST for some traits. The evolvability of traits was negatively correlated with the degree of differentiation among populations (QST), i.e. traits under strong selection showed little genetic variation within populations. The evolutionary potential of a population was not related to its size, the performance of the population or its neutral genetic diversity. However, performance in the common garden was lower for plants from populations with reduced molecular genetic variation, suggesting inbreeding depression due to genetic erosion.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that studies of molecular and quantitative genetic variation may provide complementary insights important for the conservation of rare species. The strong differentiation of quantitative traits among populations shows that selection can be an important force for structuring variation in evolutionarily important traits even for rare endemic species restricted to very specific habitats.

Genetic variation, simplicity, and evolutionary constraints for function-valued traits

Understanding the patterns of genetic variation and constraint for continuous reaction norms, growth trajectories, and other function-valued traits is challenging. We describe and illustrate a recent analytical method, simple basis analysis (SBA), that uses the genetic variance-covariance (G) matrix to identify "simple" directions of genetic variation and genetic constraints that have straightforward biological interpretations. We discuss the parallels between the eigenvectors (principal components) identified by principal components analysis (PCA) and the simple basis (SB) vectors identified by SBA. We apply these methods to estimated G matrices obtained from 10 studies of thermal performance curves and growth curves. Our results suggest that variation in overall size across all ages represented most of the genetic variance in growth curves. In contrast, variation in overall performance across all temperatures represented less than one-third of the genetic variance in thermal performance curves in all cases, and genetic trade-offs between performance at higher versus lower temperatures were often important. The analyses also identify potential genetic constraints on patterns of early and later growth in growth curves. We suggest that SBA can be a useful complement or alternative to PCA for identifying biologically interpretable directions of genetic variation and constraint in function-valued traits.

The concept of fitness in fluctuating environments

Fitness is a central concept in evolutionary biology, but there is no unified definition. We review recent theoretical developments showing that including fluctuating environments and density dependence has important implications for how differences among phenotypes in their contributions to future generations should be quantified. The rate of phenotypic evolution will vary through time because of environmental stochasticity. Density dependence may produce fluctuating selection for large growth rates at low densities but for larger carrying capacities when population sizes are large. In general, including ecologically realistic assumptions when defining the concept of fitness is crucial for estimating the potential of evolutionary rescue of populations affected by environmental perturbations such as climate change.

A multivariate analysis of genetic constraints to life history evolution in a wild population of red deer

Evolutionary theory predicts that genetic constraints should be widespread, but empirical support for their existence is surprisingly rare. Commonly applied univariate and bivariate approaches to detecting genetic constraints can underestimate their prevalence, with important aspects potentially tractable only within a multivariate framework. However, multivariate genetic analyses of data from natural populations are challenging because of modest sample sizes, incomplete pedigrees, and missing data. Here we present results from a study of a comprehensive set of life history traits (juvenile survival, age at first breeding, annual fecundity, and longevity) for both males and females in a wild, pedigreed, population of red deer (Cervus elaphus). We use factor analytic modeling of the genetic variance–covariance matrix (G) to reduce the dimensionality of the problem and take a multivariate approach to estimating genetic constraints. We consider a range of metrics designed to assess the effect of G on the deflection of a predicted response to selection away from the direction of fastest adaptation and on the evolvability of the traits. We found limited support for genetic constraint through genetic covariances between traits, both within sex and between sexes. We discuss these results with respect to other recent findings and to the problems of estimating these parameters for natural populations.

The evolutionary stability of cross-sex, cross-trait genetic covariances

Although knowledge of the selective agents behind the evolution of sexual dimorphism has advanced considerably in recent years, we still lack a clear understanding of the evolutionary durability of cross-sex genetic covariances that often constrain its evolution. We tested the relative stability of cross-sex genetic covariances for a suite of homologous contact pheromones of the fruit fly Drosophila serrata, along a latitudinal gradient where these traits have diverged in mean. Using a Bayesian framework, which allowed us to account for uncertainty in all parameter estimates, we compared divergence in the total amount and orientation of genetic variance across populations, finding divergence in orientation but not total variance. We then statistically compared orientation divergence of within-sex (G) to cross-sex (B) covariance matrices. In line with a previous theoretical prediction, we find that the cross-sex covariance matrix, B, is more variable than either within-sex G matrix. Decomposition of B matrices into their symmetrical and nonsymmetrical components revealed that instability is linked to the degree of asymmetry. We also find that the degree of asymmetry correlates with latitude suggesting a role for spatially varying natural selection in shaping genetic constraints on the evolution of sexual dimorphism.

Assessing multivariate constraints to evolution across ten long-term avian studies

Background

In a rapidly changing world, it is of fundamental importance to understand processes constraining or facilitating adaptation through microevolution. As different traits of an organism covary, genetic correlations are expected to affect evolutionary trajectories. However, only limited empirical data are available.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We investigate the extent to which multivariate constraints affect the rate of adaptation, focusing on four morphological traits often shown to harbour large amounts of genetic variance and considered to be subject to limited evolutionary constraints. Our data set includes unique long-term data for seven bird species and a total of 10 populations. We estimate population-specific matrices of genetic correlations and multivariate selection coefficients to predict evolutionary responses to selection. Using Bayesian methods that facilitate the propagation of errors in estimates, we compare (1) the rate of adaptation based on predicted response to selection when including genetic correlations with predictions from models where these genetic correlations were set to zero and (2) the multivariate evolvability in the direction of current selection to the average evolvability in random directions of the phenotypic space. We show that genetic correlations on average decrease the predicted rate of adaptation by 28%. Multivariate evolvability in the direction of current selection was systematically lower than average evolvability in random directions of space. These significant reductions in the rate of adaptation and reduced evolvability were due to a general nonalignment of selection and genetic variance, notably orthogonality of directional selection with the size axis along which most (60%) of the genetic variance is found.

Conclusions

These results suggest that genetic correlations can impose significant constraints on the evolution of avian morphology in wild populations. This could have important impacts on evolutionary dynamics and hence population persistence in the face of rapid environmental change.

Genetic constraints underlying human reproductive timing in a premodern Swiss village

The trade-off between reproductive investment in early versus late life is central to life-history theory. Despite abundant empirical evidence supporting different versions of this trade-off, the specific trade-off between age at first reproduction (AFR) and age at last reproduction (ALR) has received little attention, especially in long-lived species with a pronounced reproductive senescence such as humans. Using genealogical data for a 19th-century Swiss village, we (i) quantify natural selection acting on reproductive timing, (ii) estimate the underlying additive genetic (co)variances, and (iii) use these to predict evolutionary responses. Selection gradients were computed using multiple linear regression, and the additive genetic variance-covariance matrix was estimated using a restricted maximum-likelihood animal model. We found strong selection for both an early AFR and a late ALR, which resulted from selection for an earlier and longer reproductive period (RP, i.e., ALR-AFR). Furthermore, postponing AFR shortened RP in both sexes, but twice as much in women. Finally, AFR and ALR were strongly and positively genetically correlated, which led to a considerable reduction in the predicted responses to selection, or even rendered them maladaptive. These results provide evidence for strong genetic constraints underlying reproductive timing in humans, which may have contributed to the evolution of menopause.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics in response to selection on life-history

Understanding the consequences of environmental change on ecological and evolutionary dynamics is inherently problematic because of the complex interplay between them. Using invertebrates in microcosms, we characterise phenotypic, population and evolutionary dynamics before, during and after exposure to a novel environment and harvesting over 20 generations. We demonstrate an evolved change in life-history traits (the age- and size-at-maturity, and survival to maturity) in response to selection caused by environmental change (wild to laboratory) and to harvesting (juvenile or adult). Life-history evolution, which drives changes in population growth rate and thus population dynamics, includes an increase in age-to-maturity of 76% (from 12.5 to 22 days) in the unharvested populations as they adapt to the new environment. Evolutionary responses to harvesting are outweighed by the response to environmental change (∼ 1.4 vs. 4% change in age-at-maturity per generation). The adaptive response to environmental change converts a negative population growth trajectory into a positive one: an example of evolutionary rescue.