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Pervenecki TJ, Bewick S, Otto G, Fagan WF, Li B. Allee effects introduced by density dependent phenology. Math Biosci 2024; 374:109221. [PMID: 38797472 DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2024.109221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2023] [Revised: 04/05/2024] [Accepted: 05/22/2024] [Indexed: 05/29/2024]
Abstract
We consider a hybrid model of an annual species with the timing of a stage transition governed by density dependent phenology. We show that the model can produce a strong Allee effect as well as overcompensation. The density dependent probability distribution that describes how population emergence is spread over time plays an important role in determining population dynamics. Our extensive numerical simulations with a density dependent gamma distribution indicate very rich population dynamics, from stable/unstable equilibria, limit cycles, to chaos.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timothy J Pervenecki
- Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Wisconsin-Superior, Superior, WI 54880, United States of America
| | - Sharon Bewick
- Department of Biological Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29631, United States of America
| | - Garrett Otto
- Department of Mathematics, SUNY Cortland, Cortland, NY 13045, United States of America
| | - William F Fagan
- Department of Biology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, United States of America
| | - Bingtuan Li
- Department of Mathematics, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40292, United States of America.
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2
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Liljesthröm GG, Rabinovich JE. Biological control of the stink bug Nezara viridula (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) by two parasitoids and their interaction in non-crop habitats: a simulation model. BULLETIN OF ENTOMOLOGICAL RESEARCH 2023; 113:315-325. [PMID: 36539340 DOI: 10.1017/s0007485322000591] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Non-cultivated areas are resting, overwintering, feeding, and/or reproducing habitats for insects, and also places from where crop areas are colonized; thus, they are essential for understanding the biological control programs in agroecosystems. We developed a simulation model for a non-cultivated area of Buenos Aires province (Argentina), and we analyzed the control of Nezara viridula achieved by the action of two parasitoids: the oophagous Trissolcus basalis and the tachinid Trichopoda giacomellii, which attack older nymphs and adults. The model is a discrete time, deterministic, phenomenological, spatially homogeneous with a 1-week time interval simulation model, based on the age-structure and/or stage-structure of N. viridula and its two parasitoids. The host-parasitoid interactions were combined with a degree-day model affecting development times of T. giacomellii pupae and T. basalis pre-imaginal stages. The simultaneous attack of both parasitoid species enables the persistence of the system at low host densities, mediated by the functional response of the parasitoids, identified as population regulation factors. However, if only one parasitoid exists (i.e., only T. basalis or only T. giacomellii) the interaction N. viridula-parasitoid persisted but at higher density of N. viridula. These results explain the successful biological control of N. viridula after the introduction of T. basalis in the 1980s, when T. giacomellii was the only parasitoid present, unable to control N. viridula. Our model shows an indirect competition when both parasitoids are present: the attack of one of them diminished the potential number of hosts available to the other parasitoid species. In the field this interaction is obscured by the hibernation period which acted as a reset mechanism affecting the density and age/stage structure of all three populations. Our model was supported by field observations, and never exhibited the extinction of any of the parasitoids from the interaction.
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Affiliation(s)
- G G Liljesthröm
- Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (CEPAVE) (CONICET - UNLP), Boulevard 120 s/n entre 60 y 64 (1900), B1902CHX La Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - J E Rabinovich
- Centro de Estudios Parasitológicos y de Vectores (CEPAVE) (CONICET - UNLP), Boulevard 120 s/n entre 60 y 64 (1900), B1902CHX La Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina
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3
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Pendleton DE, Tingley MW, Ganley LC, Friedland KD, Mayo C, Brown MW, McKenna BE, Jordaan A, Staudinger MD. Decadal-scale phenology and seasonal climate drivers of migratory baleen whales in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2022; 28:4989-5005. [PMID: 35672922 PMCID: PMC9541444 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16225] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/17/2021] [Accepted: 04/29/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Species' response to rapid climate change can be measured through shifts in timing of recurring biological events, known as phenology. The Gulf of Maine is one of the most rapidly warming regions of the ocean, and thus an ideal system to study phenological and biological responses to climate change. A better understanding of climate-induced changes in phenology is needed to effectively and adaptively manage human-wildlife conflicts. Using data from a 20+ year marine mammal observation program, we tested the hypothesis that the phenology of large whale habitat use in Cape Cod Bay has changed and is related to regional-scale shifts in the thermal onset of spring. We used a multi-season occupancy model to measure phenological shifts and evaluate trends in the date of peak habitat use for North Atlantic right (Eubalaena glacialis), humpback (Megaptera novaeangliae), and fin (Balaenoptera physalus) whales. The date of peak habitat use shifted by +18.1 days (0.90 days/year) for right whales and +19.1 days (0.96 days/year) for humpback whales. We then evaluated interannual variability in peak habitat use relative to thermal spring transition dates (STD), and hypothesized that right whales, as planktivorous specialist feeders, would exhibit a stronger response to thermal phenology than fin and humpback whales, which are more generalist piscivorous feeders. There was a significant negative effect of western region STD on right whale habitat use, and a significant positive effect of eastern region STD on fin whale habitat use indicating differential responses to spatial seasonal conditions. Protections for threatened and endangered whales have been designed to align with expected phenology of habitat use. Our results show that whales are becoming mismatched with static seasonal management measures through shifts in their timing of habitat use, and they suggest that effective management strategies may need to alter protections as species adapt to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel E. Pendleton
- Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean LifeNew England AquariumBostonMassachusettsUSA
| | - Morgan W. Tingley
- Ecology and Evolutionary BiologyUniversity of California – Los AngelesLos AngelesCaliforniaUSA
| | - Laura C. Ganley
- Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean LifeNew England AquariumBostonMassachusettsUSA
| | | | - Charles Mayo
- Center for Coastal StudiesProvincetownMassachusettsUSA
| | | | | | - Adrian Jordaan
- Department of Environmental ConservationUniversity of Massachusetts AmherstAmherstMassachusettsUSA
| | - Michelle D. Staudinger
- Department of Environmental ConservationUniversity of Massachusetts AmherstAmherstMassachusettsUSA
- U.S. Geological SurveyDepartment of the Interior Northeast Climate Adaptation Science CenterAmherstMassachusettsUSA
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4
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MacDonald H, Brisson D. Host phenology regulates parasite-host demographic cycles and eco-evolutionary feedbacks. Ecol Evol 2022; 12:e8658. [PMID: 35342586 PMCID: PMC8928868 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8658] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/10/2022] [Revised: 01/25/2022] [Accepted: 01/30/2022] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
Parasite-host interactions can drive periodic population dynamics when parasites overexploit host populations. The timing of host seasonal activity, or host phenology, determines the frequency and demographic impact of parasite-host interactions, which may govern whether parasites sufficiently overexploit hosts to drive population cycles. We describe a mathematical model of a monocyclic, obligate-killer parasite system with seasonal host activity to investigate the consequences of host phenology on host-parasite dynamics. The results suggest that parasites can reach the densities necessary to destabilize host dynamics and drive cycling as they adapt, but only in some phenological scenarios such as environments with short seasons and synchronous host emergence. Furthermore, only parasite lineages that are sufficiently adapted to phenological scenarios with short seasons and synchronous host emergence can achieve the densities necessary to overexploit hosts and produce population cycles. Host-parasite cycles also generate an eco-evolutionary feedback that slows parasite adaptation to the phenological environment as rare advantageous phenotypes can be driven extinct due to a population bottleneck depending on when they are introduced in the cycle. The results demonstrate that seasonal environments can drive population cycling in a restricted set of phenological patterns and provide further evidence that the rate of adaptive evolution depends on underlying ecological dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Dustin Brisson
- Department of BiologyUniversity of PennsylvaniaPhiladelphiaPennsylvaniaUSA
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MacDonald H, Akçay E, Brisson D. The role of host phenology for parasite transmission. THEOR ECOL-NETH 2021; 14:123-143. [PMID: 34721722 PMCID: PMC8549968 DOI: 10.1007/s12080-020-00484-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2020] [Accepted: 09/20/2020] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Phenology is a fundamental determinant of species distributions, abundances, and interactions. In host–parasite interactions, host phenology can affect parasite fitness due to the temporal constraints it imposes on host contact rates. However, it remains unclear how parasite transmission is shaped by the wide range of phenological patterns observed in nature. We develop a mathematical model of the Lyme disease system to study the consequences of differential tick developmental-stage phenology for the transmission of B. burgdorferi. Incorporating seasonal tick activity can increase B. burgdorferi fitness compared to continuous tick activity but can also prevent transmission completely. B. burgdorferi fitness is greatest when the activity period of the infectious nymphal stage slightly precedes the larval activity period. Surprisingly, B. burgdorferi is eradicated if the larval activity period begins long after the end of nymphal activity due to a feedback with mouse population dynamics. These results highlight the importance of phenology, a common driver of species interactions, for the fitness of a parasite.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannelore MacDonald
- Department of Biology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104 USA
| | - Erol Akçay
- Department of Biology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104 USA
| | - Dustin Brisson
- Department of Biology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104 USA
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Timing outweighs magnitude of rainfall in shaping population dynamics of a small mammal species in steppe grassland. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:2023691118. [PMID: 34649988 PMCID: PMC8545474 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2023691118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Disentangling the effects of rainfall timing and magnitude on animal and plant populations is essential to reveal the biological consequence of diverse climate change scenarios around the world. We conducted a 10-y, large-scale, manipulative experiment to examine the bottom-up effects of changes in rainfall regime on the population dynamics of Brandt’s voles in the steppe grassland of Inner Mongolia, China. We found that a moderate rainfall increase during the early growing season could produce marked increases in vole population size by increasing the biomass of preferred plant species, whereas large increases in rainfall produced no additional increase in vole population growth. Our study highlights the importance of rainfall magnitude and timing on the nonlinear population dynamics of herbivores. Climate change–induced shifts in species phenology differ widely across trophic levels, which may lead to consumer–resource mismatches with cascading population and ecosystem consequences. Here, we examined the effects of different rainfall patterns (i.e., timing and amount) on the phenological asynchrony of population of a generalist herbivore and their food sources in semiarid steppe grassland in Inner Mongolia. We conducted a 10-y (2010 to 2019) rainfall manipulation experiment in 12 0.48-ha field enclosures and found that moderate rainfall increases during the early rather than late growing season advanced the timing of peak reproduction and drove marked increases in population size through increasing the biomass of preferred plant species. By contrast, greatly increased rainfall produced no further increases in vole population growth due to the potential negative effect of the flooding of burrows. The increases in vole population size were more coupled with increased reproduction of overwintered voles and increased body mass of young-of-year than with better survival. Our results provide experimental evidence for the fitness consequences of phenological mismatches at the population level and highlight the importance of rainfall timing on the population dynamics of small herbivores in the steppe grassland environment.
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Morse DH. Rapid phenological change differs across four trophic levels over 15 years. Oecologia 2021; 196:577-587. [PMID: 33999268 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-021-04938-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2021] [Accepted: 05/05/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
The success of consumers often depends on synchronizing with their resources; however, recent climate change has affected the phenology of many species, resulting in mismatches and leading to community-wide changes. Field studies chronicling both the dynamics and behavior of four trophic levels seldom run for more than a few years, thereby bringing into question the longer term trajectories of these phenological shifts at multiple levels. Do these shifts between trophic levels remain constant over time, or do they continue to move apart? To address these questions, in 2004, I initiated a long-term study of the phenological relationships of two ferns, a host caterpillar (and its moth), its principal primary parasitoid wasp, and hyperparasitoid wasp. The study involves only a few species at each level, but they make up nearly all the members of the community. Ferns emerged progressively earlier in the spring, at rates exceeding one day per year, while moths eclosed roughly 0.6 days earlier per year, the primary parasitoid at 0.8 days earlier per year, and the hyperparasitoid fluctuated widely. Each of these changes fostered significant mismatches. Year-to-year changes of the moth and primary parasitoid varied much more than those of the ferns. In each instance, dates of last eclosions moved earlier more rapidly than did early eclosion dates, truncating their seasons. The extremely rapid, though variable, changes in phenology of the various trophic levels follow the unprecedentedly rapid temperature increase of the immediately adjacent Gulf of Maine.
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Affiliation(s)
- Douglass H Morse
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Brown University, Box G-W, Providence, RI, 02912, USA.
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Wollrab S, Izmest'yeva Любовь Р Изместьева L, Hampton SE, Silow Евгений А Зилов EA, Litchman E, Klausmeier CA. Climate Change-Driven Regime Shifts in a Planktonic Food Web. Am Nat 2021; 197:281-295. [PMID: 33625965 DOI: 10.1086/712813] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
AbstractPredicting how food webs will respond to global environmental change is difficult because of the complex interplay between the abiotic forcing and biotic interactions. Mechanistic models of species interactions in seasonal environments can help understand the effects of global change in different ecosystems. Seasonally ice-covered lakes are warming faster than many other ecosystems and undergoing pronounced food web changes, making the need to forecast those changes especially urgent. Using a seasonally forced food web model with a generalist zooplankton grazer and competing cold-adapted winter and warm-adapted summer phytoplankton, we show that with declining ice cover, the food web moves through different dynamic regimes, from annual to biennial cycles, with decreasing and then disappearing winter phytoplankton blooms and a shift of maximum biomass to summer season. Interestingly, when predator-prey interactions were not included, a declining ice cover did not cause regime shifts, suggesting that both are needed for regime transitions. A cluster analysis of long-term data from Lake Baikal, Siberia, supports the model results, revealing a change from regularly occurring winter blooms of endemic diatoms to less frequent winter bloom years with decreasing ice cover. Together, the results show that even gradual environmental change, such as declining ice cover duration, may cause discontinuous or abrupt transitions between dynamic regimes in food webs.
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Arevalo E, Lassalle G, Tétard S, Maire A, Sauquet E, Lambert P, Paumier A, Villeneuve B, Drouineau H. An innovative bivariate approach to detect joint temporal trends in environmental conditions: Application to large French rivers and diadromous fish. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 748:141260. [PMID: 32805565 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141260] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2020] [Revised: 07/22/2020] [Accepted: 07/24/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Most key life-events of organisms are synchronized by complex interactions of several environmental cues to ensure optimal survival and growth of individuals and their offspring. However, global change is known to affect multiple components of ecosystems and cues at the same time. Therefore, detecting joint trends in covariate time series is a crucial challenge in global change ecology that has rarely been addressed so far. In this context, we designed an innovative combination of kernel density estimations and Mann-Kendall trend tests to detect joint temporal trends in a pair of environmental variables. This methodological framework was tested on >30 years (1976-2019) of water temperature and discharge data for 6 large French rivers (the Garonne, Dordogne, Rhône, Rhine, Loire and Vienne rivers). The implications of such trends in both temperature and discharge for diadromous species key life-cycle processes were then explored by checking if significant bivariate environmental changes occurred during seasons of upstream and downstream migration, and reproductive activities. Results were contrasted between rivers and seasons: many rivers displayed an increase in the number of days with high water temperature and low river discharge, but local discharge regulation measures could have mitigated the trend in discharge. Our findings showed that species migrating or spawning in spring were likely to be strongly impacted by the new environmental conditions in the Garonne, Loire and Rhône rivers, given the marked changes in water temperature and discharge associations detected by our new method. Conditions experienced by fall-running and spawning species have been strongly affected in all the rivers studied. This innovative methodology was implemented in a new R package, ChocR, for application to other environments and ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elorri Arevalo
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France.
| | - Géraldine Lassalle
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
| | - Stéphane Tétard
- EDF R&D LNHE - Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique et Environnement, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 6 quai Watier, 78401 Chatou Cedex, France
| | - Anthony Maire
- EDF R&D LNHE - Laboratoire National d'Hydraulique et Environnement, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 6 quai Watier, 78401 Chatou Cedex, France
| | - Eric Sauquet
- INRAE, Unité RiverLy, 5 Rue de la Doua CS20244, 69625 Villeurbanne Cedex, France
| | - Patrick Lambert
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
| | - Alexis Paumier
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
| | - Bertrand Villeneuve
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
| | - Hilaire Drouineau
- INRAE, Unité EABX - Écosystèmes Aquatiques et Changements Globaux, HYNES (Irstea-EDF R&D), 50 avenue de Verdun, 33612 Cestas Cedex, France
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Zaffaroni M, Cunniffe NJ, Bevacqua D. An ecophysiological model of plant-pest interactions: the role of nutrient and water availability. J R Soc Interface 2020; 17:20200356. [PMID: 33143590 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0356] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Empirical studies have shown that particular irrigation/fertilization regimes can reduce pest populations in agroecosystems. This appears to promise that the ecological concept of bottom-up control can be applied to pest management. However, a conceptual framework is necessary to develop a mechanistic basis for empirical evidence. Here, we couple a mechanistic plant growth model with a pest population model. We demonstrate its utility by applying it to the peach-green aphid system. Aphids are herbivores which feed on the plant phloem, deplete plants' resources and (potentially) transmit viral diseases. The model reproduces system properties observed in field studies and shows under which conditions the diametrically opposed plant vigour and plant stress hypotheses find support. We show that the effect of fertilization/irrigation on the pest population cannot be simply reduced as positive or negative. In fact, the magnitude and direction of any effect depend on the precise level of fertilization/irrigation and on the date of observation. We show that a new synthesis of experimental data can emerge by embedding a mechanistic plant growth model, widely studied in agronomy, in a consumer-resource modelling framework, widely studied in ecology. The future challenge is to use this insight to inform practical decision making by farmers and growers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta Zaffaroni
- INRAE, UR1115 Plantes et Systèmes de Culture Horticoles (PSH), Site Agroparc, 84914 Avignon, France
| | - Nik J Cunniffe
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK
| | - Daniele Bevacqua
- INRAE, UR1115 Plantes et Systèmes de Culture Horticoles (PSH), Site Agroparc, 84914 Avignon, France
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11
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Stewart JE, Illán JG, Richards SA, Gutiérrez D, Wilson RJ. Linking inter-annual variation in environment, phenology, and abundance for a montane butterfly community. Ecology 2019; 101:e02906. [PMID: 31560801 PMCID: PMC9285533 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2906] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2019] [Accepted: 09/11/2019] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has caused widespread shifts in species’ phenology, but the consequences for population and community dynamics remain unclear because of uncertainty regarding the species‐specific drivers of phenology and abundance, and the implications for synchrony among interacting species. Here, we develop a statistical model to quantify inter‐annual variation in phenology and abundance over an environmental gradient, and use it to identify potential drivers of phenology and abundance in co‐occurring species. We fit the model to counts of 10 butterfly species with single annual generations over a mountain elevation gradient, as an exemplar system in which temporally limited availability of biotic resources and favorable abiotic conditions impose narrow windows of seasonal activity. We estimate parameters describing changes in abundance, and the peak time and duration of the flight period, over ten years (2004–2013) and across twenty sample locations (930–2,050 m) in central Spain. We also use the model outputs to investigate relationships of phenology and abundance with temperature and rainfall. Annual shifts in phenology were remarkably consistent among species, typically showing earlier flight periods during years with warm conditions in March or May–June. In contrast, inter‐annual variation in relative abundance was more variable among species, and generally less well associated with climatic conditions. Nevertheless, warmer temperatures in June were associated with increased relative population growth in three species, and five species had increased relative population growth in years with earlier flight periods. These results suggest that broadly coherent interspecific changes to phenology could help to maintain temporal synchrony in community dynamics under climate change, but that the relative composition of communities may vary due to interspecific inconsistency in population dynamic responses to climate change. However, it may still be possible to predict abundance change for species based on a robust understanding of relationships between their population dynamics and phenology, and the environmental drivers of both.
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Affiliation(s)
- James E Stewart
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4PS, UK
| | - Javier Gutiérrez Illán
- Department of Entomology, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, 99164-6382, USA
| | - Shane A Richards
- School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
| | - David Gutiérrez
- Área de Biodiversidad y Conservación, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Móstoles, Madrid, E28933, Spain
| | - Robert J Wilson
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4PS, UK.,Departamento de Biogeografía y Cambio Global, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN-CSIC), Madrid, E28006, Spain
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12
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Damien M, Tougeron K. Prey-predator phenological mismatch under climate change. CURRENT OPINION IN INSECT SCIENCE 2019; 35:60-68. [PMID: 31401300 DOI: 10.1016/j.cois.2019.07.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2019] [Revised: 07/02/2019] [Accepted: 07/02/2019] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Insect phenology is affected by climate change and main responses are driven by phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary changes. Any modification in seasonal activity in one species can have consequences on interacting species, within and among trophic levels. In this overview, we focus on synchronisation mismatches that can occur between tightly interacting species such as hosts and parasitoids or preys and predators. Asynchronies happen because species from different trophic levels can have different response rates to climate change. We show that insect species alter their seasonal activities by modifying their life-cycle through change in voltinism or by altering their development rate. We expect strong bottom-up effects for phenology adjustments rather than top-down effects within food-webs. Extremely complex outcomes arise from such trophic mismatches, which make consequences at the community or ecosystem levels tricky to predict in a climate change context. We explore a set of potential consequences on population dynamics, conservation of species interactions, with a particular focus on the provision of ecosystem services by predators and parasitoids, such as biological pest control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maxime Damien
- Crop Research Institute (Výzkumný ústav rostlinné výroby), Drnovská 507, 161 06 Praha 6, Ruzyně, Czech Republic.
| | - Kévin Tougeron
- The University of Wisconsin - La Crosse, Department of Biology, La Crosse 54601, WI, USA; UMR 7058, CNRS-UPJV, EDYSAN "Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés", Amiens 80000, France
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13
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Boivin T, Doublet V, Candau JN. The ecology of predispersal insect herbivory on tree reproductive structures in natural forest ecosystems. INSECT SCIENCE 2019; 26:182-198. [PMID: 29082661 DOI: 10.1111/1744-7917.12549] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2017] [Revised: 07/06/2017] [Accepted: 08/15/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Plant-insect interactions are key model systems to assess how some species affect the distribution, the abundance, and the evolution of others. Tree reproductive structures represent a critical resource for many insect species, which can be likely drivers of demography, spatial distribution, and trait diversification of plants. In this review, we present the ecological implications of predispersal herbivory on tree reproductive structures by insects (PIHR) in forest ecosystems. Both insect's and tree's perspectives are addressed with an emphasis on how spatiotemporal variation and unpredictability in seed availability can shape such particular plant-animal interactions. Reproductive structure insects show strong trophic specialization and guild diversification. Insects evolved host selection and spatiotemporal dispersal strategies in response to variable and unpredictable abundance of reproductive structures in both space and time. If PIHR patterns have been well documented in numerous systems, evidences of the subsequent demographic and evolutionary impacts on tree populations are still constrained by time-scale challenges of experimenting on such long-lived organisms, and modeling approaches of tree dynamics rarely consider PIHR when including biotic interactions in their processes. We suggest that spatially explicit and mechanistic approaches of the interactions between individual tree fecundity and insect dynamics will clarify predictions of the demogenetic implications of PIHR in tree populations. In a global change context, further experimental and theoretical contributions to the likelihood of life-cycle disruptions between plants and their specialized herbivores, and to how these changes may generate novel dynamic patterns in each partner of the interaction are increasingly critical.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Jean-Noël Candau
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste Marie, Ontario, Canada
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14
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Kőrösi Á, Markó V, Kovács-Hostyánszki A, Somay L, Varga Á, Elek Z, Boreux V, Klein AM, Földesi R, Báldi A. Climate-induced phenological shift of apple trees has diverse effects on pollinators, herbivores and natural enemies. PeerJ 2018; 6:e5269. [PMID: 30065875 PMCID: PMC6064640 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.5269] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2018] [Accepted: 06/29/2018] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is altering the phenology of trophically linked organisms, leading to increased asynchrony between species with unknown consequences for ecosystem services. Although phenological mismatches are reported from several ecosystems, experimental evidence for altering multiple ecosystem services is hardly available. We examined how the phenological shift of apple trees affected the abundance and diversity of pollinators, generalist and specialist herbivores and predatory arthropods. We stored potted apple trees in the greenhouse or cold store in early spring before transferring them into orchards to cause mismatches and sampled arthropods on the trees repeatedly. Assemblages of pollinators on the manipulated and control trees differed markedly, but their overall abundance was similar indicating a potential insurance effect of wild bee diversity to ensure fruit set in flower-pollinator mismatch conditions. Specialized herbivores were almost absent from manipulated trees, while less-specialized ones showed diverse responses, confirming the expectation that more specialized interactions are more vulnerable to phenological mismatch. Natural enemies also responded to shifted apple tree phenology and the abundance of their prey. While arthropod abundances either declined or increased, species diversity tended to be lower on apple trees with shifted phenology. Our study indicates novel results on the role of biodiversity and specialization in plant-insect mismatch situations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ádám Kőrösi
- MTA-ELTE-MTM Ecology Research Group, Budapest, Hungary
- Theoretical Evolutionary Ecology Group, Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany
| | - Viktor Markó
- Department of Entomology, Szent István University, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Anikó Kovács-Hostyánszki
- Institute of Ecology and Botany, Lendület Ecosystem Services Research Group, MTA Centre for Ecological Research, Vácrátót, Hungary
| | - László Somay
- Institute of Ecology and Botany, Lendület Ecosystem Services Research Group, MTA Centre for Ecological Research, Vácrátót, Hungary
| | - Ákos Varga
- Department of Entomology, Szent István University, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Zoltán Elek
- MTA-ELTE-MTM Ecology Research Group, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Virginie Boreux
- Nature Conservation and Landscape Ecology, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Alexandra-Maria Klein
- Nature Conservation and Landscape Ecology, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany
| | - Rita Földesi
- Agroecology and Organic Farming, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany
| | - András Báldi
- Institute of Ecology and Botany, Lendület Ecosystem Services Research Group, MTA Centre for Ecological Research, Vácrátót, Hungary
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15
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Walter JA, Ives AR, Tooker JF, Johnson DM. Life history and habitat explain variation among insect pest populations subject to global change. Ecosphere 2018. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2274] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan A. Walter
- Department of Biology Virginia Commonwealth University 1000 W. Cary Street Richmond Virginia 23284 USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Kansas Biological Survey University of Kansas 2101 Constant Avenue Lawrence Kansas 66047 USA
| | - Anthony R. Ives
- Department of Zoology University of Wisconsin 430 Lincoln Way Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - John F. Tooker
- Department of Entomology The Pennsylvania State University 501 ASI Building University Park Pennsylvania 16802 USA
| | - Derek M. Johnson
- Department of Biology Virginia Commonwealth University 1000 W. Cary Street Richmond Virginia 23284 USA
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16
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Kharouba HM, Ehrlén J, Gelman A, Bolmgren K, Allen JM, Travers SE, Wolkovich EM. Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2018; 115:5211-5216. [PMID: 29666247 PMCID: PMC5960279 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1714511115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 177] [Impact Index Per Article: 29.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Phenological responses to climate change (e.g., earlier leaf-out or egg hatch date) are now well documented and clearly linked to rising temperatures in recent decades. Such shifts in the phenologies of interacting species may lead to shifts in their synchrony, with cascading community and ecosystem consequences. To date, single-system studies have provided no clear picture, either finding synchrony shifts may be extremely prevalent [Mayor SJ, et al. (2017) Sci Rep 7:1902] or relatively uncommon [Iler AM, et al. (2013) Glob Chang Biol 19:2348-2359], suggesting that shifts toward asynchrony may be infrequent. A meta-analytic approach would provide insights into global trends and how they are linked to climate change. We compared phenological shifts among pairwise species interactions (e.g., predator-prey) using published long-term time-series data of phenological events from aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across four continents since 1951 to determine whether recent climate change has led to overall shifts in synchrony. We show that the relative timing of key life cycle events of interacting species has changed significantly over the past 35 years. Further, by comparing the period before major climate change (pre-1980s) and after, we show that estimated changes in phenology and synchrony are greater in recent decades. However, there has been no consistent trend in the direction of these changes. Our findings show that there have been shifts in the timing of interacting species in recent decades; the next challenges are to improve our ability to predict the direction of change and understand the full consequences for communities and ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heather M Kharouba
- Center for Population Biology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616;
- Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
| | - Johan Ehrlén
- Department of Ecology, Environment, and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Andrew Gelman
- Department of Statistics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
| | - Kjell Bolmgren
- Unit for Field-Based Forest Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SE-363 94 Lammhult, Sweden
| | - Jenica M Allen
- Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824
| | - Steve E Travers
- Department of Biological Sciences, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND 58108
| | - Elizabeth M Wolkovich
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston MA, 02130
- Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138
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17
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How Phenological Variation Affects Species Spreading Speeds. Bull Math Biol 2018; 80:1476-1513. [DOI: 10.1007/s11538-018-0409-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2016] [Accepted: 02/27/2018] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
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18
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Kajin M, Penz CM, DeVries PJ. Large-Scale Climate Effects Meet an Amazonian Butterfly: Which Population Parameters Respond to El Niño? ENVIRONMENTAL ENTOMOLOGY 2017; 46:1202-1211. [PMID: 29069401 DOI: 10.1093/ee/nvx170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
One of the most tangible outcomes of climate change is change in the frequency of El Niño/La Niña events. They have a large impact on rainfall in the Western hemisphere, but their impact on tropical fauna is largely unknown. A decade long capture-mark-recapture study of the widespread Ecuadorian butterfly Nessaea hewitsoni (Felder & Felder) from an intact forest allowed us to analyze patterns of monthly and seasonal population dynamics before, during, and after an El Niño event. El Niño events did not affect long-term population size, but a 5-month delayed El Niño led to temporary emigration of females, with their subsequent return. Increased rainfall correlated with reduced survival in both sexes, but this effect was twice as strong in females. This investigation is the longest, continuous population study on any Neotropical insect species. Though we sampled on a modest scale, the magnitude of El Niño events suggests that our findings likely reflect insect population responses across a much larger portion of Amazonian forests. This study underscores the importance of analyzing multiple, interacting population parameters beyond local abundance in order to understand the biotic responses to El Niño and climate change in tropical systems. Had our analyses not included temporary emigration, no effect would have been detected because El Niño did not affect local population abundance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maja Kajin
- Dept. Ecologia, Instituto de Biologia Roberto Alcantara Gomes, Univ. Estad. Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ
| | - Carla M Penz
- Dept. Biological Sciences, University of New Orleans, New Orleans, LA
| | - Phil J DeVries
- Dept. Biological Sciences, University of New Orleans, New Orleans, LA
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19
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Mlynarek JJ, Moffat CE, Edwards S, Einfeldt AL, Heustis A, Johns R, MacDonnell M, Pureswaran DS, Quiring DT, Shibel Z, Heard SB. Enemy escape: A general phenomenon in a fragmented literature? Facets (Ott) 2017. [DOI: 10.1139/facets-2017-0041] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Many populations are thought to be regulated, in part, by their natural enemies. If so, disruption of this regulation should allow rapid population growth. Such “enemy escape” may occur in a variety of circumstances, including invasion, natural range expansion, range edges, suppression of enemy populations, host shifting, phenological changes, and defensive innovation. Periods of relaxed enemy pressure also occur in, and may drive, population oscillations and outbreaks. We draw attention to similarities among circumstances of enemy escape and build a general conceptual framework for the phenomenon. Although these circumstances share common mechanisms and depend on common assumptions, enemy escape can involve dynamics operating on very different temporal and spatial scales. In particular, the duration of enemy escape is rarely considered but will likely vary among circumstances. Enemy escape can have important evolutionary consequences including increasing competitive ability, spurring diversification, or triggering enemy counteradaptation. These evolutionary consequences have been considered for plant–herbivore interactions and invasions but largely neglected for other circumstances of enemy escape. We aim to unite the fragmented literature, which we argue has impeded progress in building a broader understanding of the eco-evolutionary dynamics of enemy escape.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia J. Mlynarek
- Department of Biology, University of New Brunswick, P.O. Box 4400, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada
| | - Chandra E. Moffat
- Department of Biology, University of New Brunswick, P.O. Box 4400, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada
| | - Sara Edwards
- Population Ecology Group, Faculty of Forestry & Environmental Management, University of New Brunswick, P.O. Box 4400, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada
| | - Anthony L. Einfeldt
- Department of Biology, University of New Brunswick, P.O. Box 4400, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada
| | - Allyson Heustis
- Department of Biology, University of New Brunswick, P.O. Box 4400, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada
- Forest Insect Ecology, Atlantic Forestry Centre, 1350 Regent Street, P.O. Box 4000, Fredericton, NB E3B 5P7, Canada
| | - Rob Johns
- Forest Insect Ecology, Atlantic Forestry Centre, 1350 Regent Street, P.O. Box 4000, Fredericton, NB E3B 5P7, Canada
| | - Mallory MacDonnell
- Department of Biology, University of New Brunswick, P.O. Box 4400, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada
| | - Deepa S. Pureswaran
- Forest Insect Ecology, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 Du PEPS Street, P.O. Box 10380, Québec, QC G1V 4C7, Canada
| | - Dan T. Quiring
- Population Ecology Group, Faculty of Forestry & Environmental Management, University of New Brunswick, P.O. Box 4400, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada
| | - Zoryana Shibel
- Department of Biology, University of New Brunswick, P.O. Box 4400, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada
| | - Stephen B. Heard
- Department of Biology, University of New Brunswick, P.O. Box 4400, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada
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20
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Mayor SJ, Guralnick RP, Tingley MW, Otegui J, Withey JC, Elmendorf SC, Andrew ME, Leyk S, Pearse IS, Schneider DC. Increasing phenological asynchrony between spring green-up and arrival of migratory birds. Sci Rep 2017; 7:1902. [PMID: 28507323 PMCID: PMC5432526 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-02045-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 81] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2016] [Accepted: 04/05/2017] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Consistent with a warming climate, birds are shifting the timing of their migrations, but it remains unclear to what extent these shifts have kept pace with the changing environment. Because bird migration is primarily cued by annually consistent physiological responses to photoperiod, but conditions at their breeding grounds depend on annually variable climate, bird arrival and climate-driven spring events would diverge. We combined satellite and citizen science data to estimate rates of change in phenological interval between spring green-up and migratory arrival for 48 breeding passerine species across North America. Both arrival and green-up changed over time, usually in the same direction (earlier or later). Although birds adjusted their arrival dates, 9 of 48 species did not keep pace with rapidly changing green-up and across all species the interval between arrival and green-up increased by over half a day per year. As green-up became earlier in the east, arrival of eastern breeding species increasingly lagged behind green-up, whereas in the west—where green-up typically became later—birds arrived increasingly earlier relative to green-up. Our results highlight that phenologies of species and trophic levels can shift at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches with negative fitness consequences.
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Affiliation(s)
- Stephen J Mayor
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, A1C 5S7, Canada. .,Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA. .,The National Ecological Observatory Network, Boulder, CO, 80301, USA. .,Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA.
| | - Robert P Guralnick
- Florida Museum of Natural History, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
| | - Morgan W Tingley
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, 06269, USA
| | - Javier Otegui
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - John C Withey
- Department of Biological Sciences, Florida International University, Miami, FL, 33199, USA
| | - Sarah C Elmendorf
- The National Ecological Observatory Network, Boulder, CO, 80301, USA
| | - Margaret E Andrew
- School of Veterinary and Life Sciences, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA, 6150, Australia
| | - Stefan Leyk
- Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - Ian S Pearse
- Illinois Natural History Survey, Champaign, IL, 61820, USA
| | - David C Schneider
- Department of Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, A1C 5S7, Canada
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21
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Fagan WF, Gurarie E, Bewick S, Howard A, Cantrell RS, Cosner C. Perceptual Ranges, Information Gathering, and Foraging Success in Dynamic Landscapes. Am Nat 2017; 189:474-489. [PMID: 28410028 DOI: 10.1086/691099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
Abstract
How organisms gather and utilize information about their landscapes is central to understanding land-use patterns and population distributions. When such information originates beyond an individual's immediate vicinity, movement decisions require integrating information out to some perceptual range. Such nonlocal information, whether obtained visually, acoustically, or via chemosensation, provides a field of stimuli that guides movement. Classically, however, models have assumed movement based on purely local information (e.g., chemotaxis, step-selection functions). Here we explore how foragers can exploit nonlocal information to improve their success in dynamic landscapes. Using a continuous time/continuous space model in which we vary both random (diffusive) movement and resource-following (advective) movement, we characterize the optimal perceptual ranges for foragers in dynamic landscapes. Nonlocal information can be highly beneficial, increasing the spatiotemporal concentration of foragers on their resources up to twofold compared with movement based on purely local information. However, nonlocal information is most useful when foragers possess both high advective movement (allowing them to react to transient resources) and low diffusive movement (preventing them from drifting away from resource peaks). Nonlocal information is particularly beneficial in landscapes with sharp (rather than gradual) patch edges and in landscapes with highly transient resources.
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22
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Boggs CL. The fingerprints of global climate change on insect populations. CURRENT OPINION IN INSECT SCIENCE 2016; 17:69-73. [PMID: 27720076 DOI: 10.1016/j.cois.2016.07.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2016] [Accepted: 07/26/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Synthesizing papers from the last two years, I examined generalizations about the fingerprints of climate change on insects' population dynamics and phenology. Recent work shows that populations can differ in response to changes in climate means and variances. The part of the thermal niche occupied by an insect population, voltinism, plasticity and adaptation to weather perturbations, and interactions with other species can all exacerbate or mitigate responses to climate change. Likewise, land use change or agricultural practices can affect responses to climate change. Nonetheless, our knowledge of effects of climate change is still biased by organism and geographic region, and to some extent by scale of climate parameter.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carol L Boggs
- School of the Earth, Ocean & Environment, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208, USA.
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23
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Affiliation(s)
- Sharon Bewick
- Biology University of Maryland 20742 College Park MarylandUSA
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24
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Burns M, Tsurusaki N. Male Reproductive Morphology Across Latitudinal Clines and Under Long-Term Female Sex-Ratio Bias. Integr Comp Biol 2016; 56:715-27. [DOI: 10.1093/icb/icw017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
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