1
|
Buonaiuto DM, Davies TJ, Collins SC, Wolkovich EM. Ecological drivers of flower-leaf sequences: aridity and proxies for pollinator attraction select for flowering-first in the American plums. New Phytol 2024. [PMID: 38561636 DOI: 10.1111/nph.19685] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2023] [Accepted: 03/01/2024] [Indexed: 04/04/2024]
Abstract
Across temperate forests, many tree species produce flowers before their leaves emerge. This flower-leaf phenological sequence, known as hysteranthy, is generally described as an adaptation for wind pollination. However, this explanation does not address why hysteranthy is also common in biotically pollinated taxa. We quantified flower-leaf sequence variation in the American plums (Prunus, subg. Prunus sect. Prunocerasus), a clade of insect-pollinated trees, using herbaria specimens and Bayesian hierarchical modeling. We tested two common, but rarely interrogated hypotheses - that hysteranthy confers aridity tolerance and/or pollinator visibility - by modeling the associations between hysteranthy and related traits. To understand how these phenology-trait associations were sensitive to taxonomic scale and flower-leaf sequence classification, we then extended these analyses to all Prunus species in North America. Our findings across two taxonomic levels support the hypotheses that hysteranthy may help temporally partition hydraulic demand to reduce water stress and increase pollinator visibility - thereby reducing selective pressure on inflorescence size. Our results provide foundational insights into the evolution of flower-leaf sequences in the genus Prunus, with implications for understanding these patterns in biotically pollinated plants in general. Our approach suggests a path to advance these hypotheses to other clades, but teasing out drivers fully will require new experiments.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- D M Buonaiuto
- Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, 01003, USA
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, MA, 02131, USA
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | - T J Davies
- Forest & Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
- Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - S C Collins
- Forest & Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - E M Wolkovich
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, MA, 02131, USA
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
- Forest & Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Zeng ZA, Wolkovich EM. Weak evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology across Europe and North America. New Phytol 2024. [PMID: 38494441 DOI: 10.1111/nph.19674] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2023] [Accepted: 02/27/2024] [Indexed: 03/19/2024]
Abstract
Forecasting the biological impacts of climate change requires understanding how species respond to warmer temperatures through interannual flexible variation vs through adaptation to local conditions. Yet, we often lack this information entirely or find conflicting evidence across studies, which is the case for spring phenology. We synthesized common garden studies across Europe and North America that reported spring event dates for a mix of angiosperm and gymnosperm tree species in the northern hemisphere, capturing data from 384 North American and 101 European provenances (i.e. populations) with observations from 1962 to 2019, alongside autumn event data when provided. Across continents, we found no evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology, but strong clines with latitude and mean annual temperature in autumn. These effects, however, appeared to diverge by continent and species type (gymnosperm vs angiosperm), with particularly pronounced clines in North America in autumn events. Our results suggest flexible, likely plastic responses, in spring phenology with warming, and potential limits - at least in the short term - due to provenance effects for autumn phenology. They also highlight that, after over 250 yr of common garden studies on tree phenology, we still lack a holistic predictive model of clines across species and phenological events.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Ziyun Alina Zeng
- Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Elizabeth M Wolkovich
- Forest & Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Wolkovich EM. 'Obviously ChatGPT' - how reviewers accused me of scientific fraud. Nature 2024:10.1038/d41586-024-00349-5. [PMID: 38317003 DOI: 10.1038/d41586-024-00349-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2024]
|
4
|
Jones FAM, Bogdanoff C, Wolkovich EM. The role of genotypic and climatic variation at the range edge: A case study in winegrapes. Am J Bot 2024; 111:e16270. [PMID: 38156528 DOI: 10.1002/ajb2.16270] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/17/2023] [Revised: 10/26/2023] [Accepted: 10/26/2023] [Indexed: 12/30/2023]
Abstract
PREMISE Changes in habitat suitability due to climate change are causing range shifts, with new habitat potentially available at cold range edges. We must predict these range shifts, but forecasters have limited knowledge of how genetic differences in plant physiological tolerances influence range shifts. Here, we focus on a major determinant of species ranges-physiological tolerance to extreme cold-to ask how warming over recent decades and genetic variation shape expansion across complex landscapes. METHODS We examined how genotypes vary in maximum cold tolerance from 9 years of cold hardiness data across 18 genotypes from 13 sites, using winegrapes (Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera) as a case study. Combining a Bayesian hierarchical dose-response model with gridded climate data, we then project changes in climatic suitability near winegrapes' current cold range-edge between 1949 and 2016. RESULTS Plants increased maximum cold hardiness non-linearly with decreasing air temperature (maximum cold hardiness: -23.6°C), but with substantial (by 2°C) variation across genotypes. Our results suggest, since the 1980s, decreasing freeze injury risk has made conditions more favorable for all genotypes at the cold range-edge, but conditions remained more favorable for more cold hardy genotypes and in warmer areas. There was substantial spatial variation in habitat suitability, with the majority of suitably warm habitat located in a narrow north-south oriented strip. CONCLUSIONS We highlight the importance of genotypic differences in physiological tolerances when assessing range shift potential with climate change. Habitat improvements were unevenly distributed over the spatially complex landscape, though, emphasizing the importance of dispersal in range expansion.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Faith A M Jones
- Department of Forest and Conservation, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, British Colombia, V6T 1Z4, Canada
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Environmental Studies, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 901 83 Umeå, Sweden
| | - Carl Bogdanoff
- Agriculture and Agri-Food, Summerland, British Columbia, V0H 1Z0, Canada
| | - E M Wolkovich
- Department of Forest and Conservation, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, British Colombia, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Kharouba HM, Wolkovich EM. Lack of evidence for the match-mismatch hypothesis across terrestrial trophic interactions. Ecol Lett 2023; 26:955-964. [PMID: 36888547 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14185] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2022] [Revised: 12/13/2022] [Accepted: 01/14/2023] [Indexed: 03/09/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has led to widespread shifts in the timing of key life history events between interacting species (phenological asynchrony) with hypothesized cascading negative fitness impacts on one or more of the interacting species-often termed 'mismatch'. Yet, predicting the types of systems prone to mismatch remains a major hurdle. Recent reviews have argued that many studies do not provide strong evidence of the underlying match-mismatch hypothesis, but none have quantitatively analysed support for it. Here, we test the hypothesis by estimating the prevalence of mismatch across antagonistic trophic interactions in terrestrial systems and then examine whether studies that meet the assumptions of the hypothesis are more likely to find a mismatch. Despite a large range of synchrony to asynchrony, we did not find general support for the hypothesis. Our results thus question the general applicability of this hypothesis in terrestrial systems, but they also suggest specific types of data missing to robustly refute it. We highlight the critical need to define resource seasonality and the window of 'match' for the most rigorous tests of the hypothesis. Such efforts are necessary if we want to predict systems where mismatches are likely to occur.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - E M Wolkovich
- Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Rivest SA, Wolkovich EM, Kharouba HM. Flowering phenology influences butterfly nectar foraging on non-native plants in an oak savanna. Ecology 2023; 104:e4004. [PMID: 36799691 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.4004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2022] [Revised: 01/05/2023] [Accepted: 01/19/2023] [Indexed: 02/18/2023]
Abstract
The negative impacts of non-native species have been well documented, but some non-natives can play a positive role in native ecosystems. One way that non-native plants can positively interact with native butterflies is by provisioning nectar. Relatively little is known about the role of phenology in determining native butterfly visitation to non-native plants for nectar, yet flowering time directly controls nectar availability. Here we investigate the phenological patterns of flowering by native and non-native plants and nectar foraging by native butterflies in an oak savanna on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. We also test whether native butterflies select nectar sources in proportion to their availability. We found that non-native plants were well integrated into butterfly nectar diets (83% of foraging observations) and that visitation to non-natives increased later in the season when native plants were no longer flowering. We also found that butterflies selected non-native flowers more often than expected based on their availability, suggesting that these plants represent a potentially valuable resource. Our study shows that non-native species have the potential to drive key species interactions in seasonal ecosystems. Management regimes focused on eradicating non-native species may need to reconsider their aims and evaluate resources that non-natives provide.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - E M Wolkovich
- Department of Forest & Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | | |
Collapse
|
7
|
Wolkovich EM, Chamberlain CJ, Buonaiuto DM, Ettinger AK, Morales-Castilla I. Integrating experiments to predict interactive cue effects on spring phenology with warming. New Phytol 2022; 235:1719-1728. [PMID: 35599356 DOI: 10.1111/nph.18269] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2021] [Accepted: 04/21/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has advanced plant phenology globally 4-6 d °C-1 on average. Such shifts are some of the most reported and predictable biological impacts of rising temperatures. Yet as climate change has marched on, phenological shifts have appeared muted over recent decades - failing to match simple predictions of an advancing spring with continued warming. The main hypothesis for these changing trends is that interactions between spring phenological cues - long-documented in laboratory environments - are playing a greater role in natural environments due to climate change. Here, we argue that accurately linking shifts observed in long-term data to underlying phenological cues is slowed by biases in observational studies and limited integration of insights from laboratory studies. We synthesize seven decades of laboratory experiments to quantify how phenological cue-space has been studied and how treatments compare with shifts caused by climate change. Most studies focus on one cue, limiting our ability to make accurate predictions, but some well-studied forest species offer opportunities to advance forecasting. We outline how greater integration of controlled-environment studies with long-term data could drive a new generation of laboratory experiments, built on physiological insights, that would transform our fundamental understanding of phenology and improve predictions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- E M Wolkovich
- Forest & Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, 1300 Centre Street, Boston, MA, 02131, USA
- Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | - C J Chamberlain
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, 1300 Centre Street, Boston, MA, 02131, USA
- Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | - D M Buonaiuto
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, 1300 Centre Street, Boston, MA, 02131, USA
- Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | - A K Ettinger
- The Nature Conservancy, 74 Wall Street, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
| | - I Morales-Castilla
- Department of Life Sciences, Global Change Ecology and Evolution Group, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, 28805, Spain
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Eyster HN, Wolkovich EM. Comparisons in the native and introduced ranges reveal little evidence of climatic adaptation in germination traits. Climate Change Ecology 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2021.100023] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
|
9
|
Wolkovich EM, Auerbach J, Chamberlain CJ, Buonaiuto DM, Ettinger AK, Morales-Castilla I, Gelman A. A simple explanation for declining temperature sensitivity with warming. Glob Chang Biol 2021; 27:4947-4949. [PMID: 34355482 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15746] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2021] [Accepted: 05/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Recently, multiple studies have reported declining phenological sensitivities (∆ days per ℃) with higher temperatures. Such observations have been used to suggest climate change is reshaping biological processes, with major implications for forecasts of future change. Here, we show that these results may simply be the outcome of using linear models to estimate nonlinear temperature responses, specifically for events that occur after a cumulative thermal threshold is met-a common model for many biological events. Corrections for the nonlinearity of temperature responses consistently remove the apparent decline. Our results show that rising temperatures combined with linear estimates based on calendar time produce the observations of declining sensitivity-without any shift in the underlying biology. Current methods may thus undermine efforts to identify when and how warming will reshape biological processes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- E M Wolkovich
- Forest & Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - J Auerbach
- Department of Statistics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - C J Chamberlain
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - D M Buonaiuto
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - A K Ettinger
- The Nature Conservancy in Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - I Morales-Castilla
- Global Change Ecology and Evolution Group-GloCEE, Department of Life Sciences, University of Alcalá, Madrid, Spain
| | - A Gelman
- Department of Statistics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Chamberlain CJ, Wolkovich EM. Late spring freezes coupled with warming winters alter temperate tree phenology and growth. New Phytol 2021; 231:987-995. [PMID: 33932291 DOI: 10.1111/nph.17416] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2020] [Accepted: 04/13/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Spring phenology is advancing with warming but late spring freezes may not advance at the same rate, potentially leading to an increase in freezes after trees initiate budburst. Research suggests warming winters may delay budburst through reduced chilling, which may cause plants to leafout more slowly, thus decreasing spring freeze tolerance. Here, we assessed the effects of late spring freezes and reduced over-winter chilling on sapling phenology, growth and tissue traits, across eight temperate tree and shrub species in a laboratory experiment. We found that spring freezes delayed leafout - extending the period of greatest risk for freeze damage - increased damage to the shoot apical meristem, and decreased leaf toughness and leaf thickness. Longer chilling accelerated budburst and leafout, even under spring freeze conditions. Thus, chilling compensated for the adverse effects of late spring freezes on phenology. Despite the effects of spring freezes and chilling on phenology, we did not see any major reordering in the sequence of species leafout. Our results suggest climate change may impact forest communities not through temporal reassembly, but rather through impacts on phenology and growth from the coupled effects of late spring freezes and decreased over-winter chilling under climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Catherine J Chamberlain
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, 1300 Centre Street, Boston, MA, 02131, USA
- Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | - E M Wolkovich
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, 1300 Centre Street, Boston, MA, 02131, USA
- Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
- Forest & Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Wolkovich EM, Donahue MJ. How phenological tracking shapes species and communities in non-stationary environments. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 2021; 96:2810-2827. [PMID: 34288337 DOI: 10.1111/brv.12781] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/15/2020] [Revised: 07/02/2021] [Accepted: 07/07/2021] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
Climate change alters the environments of all species. Predicting species responses requires understanding how species track environmental change, and how such tracking shapes communities. Growing empirical evidence suggests that how species track phenologically - how an organism shifts the timing of major biological events in response to the environment - is linked to species performance and community structure. Such research tantalizingly suggests a potential framework to predict the winners and losers of climate change, and the future communities we can expect. But developing this framework requires far greater efforts to ground empirical studies of phenological tracking in relevant ecological theory. Here we review the concept of phenological tracking in empirical studies and through the lens of coexistence theory to show why a community-level perspective is critical to accurate predictions with climate change. While much current theory for tracking ignores the importance of a multi-species context, basic community assembly theory predicts that competition will drive variation in tracking and trade-offs with other traits. We highlight how existing community assembly theory can help understand tracking in stationary and non-stationary systems. But major advances in predicting the species- and community-level consequences of climate change will require advances in theoretical and empirical studies. We outline a path forward built on greater efforts to integrate priority effects into modern coexistence theory, improved empirical estimates of multivariate environmental change, and clearly defined estimates of phenological tracking and its underlying environmental cues.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- E M Wolkovich
- Forest & Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Megan J Donahue
- Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Kān'eohe, HI, 96744, U.S.A
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Ettinger AK, Buonaiuto DM, Chamberlain CJ, Morales-Castilla I, Wolkovich EM. Spatial and temporal shifts in photoperiod with climate change. New Phytol 2021; 230:462-474. [PMID: 33421152 DOI: 10.1111/nph.17172] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2020] [Accepted: 12/08/2020] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Climate change causes both temporal (e.g. advancing spring phenology) and geographic (e.g. range expansion poleward) species shifts, which affect the photoperiod experienced at critical developmental stages ('experienced photoperiod'). As photoperiod is a common trigger of seasonal biological responses - affecting woody plant spring phenology in 87% of reviewed studies that manipulated photoperiod - shifts in experienced photoperiod may have important implications for future plant distributions and fitness. However, photoperiod has not been a focus of climate change forecasting to date, especially for early-season ('spring') events, often assumed to be driven by temperature. Synthesizing published studies, we find that impacts on experienced photoperiod from temporal shifts could be orders of magnitude larger than from spatial shifts (1.6 h of change for expected temporal vs 1 min for latitudinal shifts). Incorporating these effects into forecasts is possible by leveraging existing experimental data; we show that results from growth chamber experiments on woody plants often have data relevant for climate change impacts, and suggest that shifts in experienced photoperiod may increasingly constrain responses to additional warming. Further, combining modeling approaches and empirical work on when, where and how much photoperiod affects phenology could rapidly advance our understanding and predictions of future spatio-temporal shifts from climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- A K Ettinger
- The Nature Conservancy, Washington Field Office, Seattle, WA, 98121, USA
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, MA, 02130, USA
| | - D M Buonaiuto
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, MA, 02130, USA
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | - C J Chamberlain
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, MA, 02130, USA
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | - I Morales-Castilla
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, MA, 02130, USA
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
- Global Change Ecology and Evolution (GloCEE) Research Group, Department of Life Sciences, University of Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, MA, 28805, Spain
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, 22030, USA
| | - E M Wolkovich
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, MA, 02130, USA
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
- Forest & Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Buonaiuto DM, Morales-Castilla I, Wolkovich EM. Reconciling competing hypotheses regarding flower-leaf sequences in temperate forests for fundamental and global change biology. New Phytol 2021; 229:1206-1214. [PMID: 32750742 DOI: 10.1111/nph.16848] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2020] [Accepted: 07/24/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Phenology is a major component of an organism's fitness. While individual phenological events affect fitness, there is growing evidence to suggest that the relationship between events could be equally or more important. This could explain why temperate deciduous woody plants exhibit considerable variation in the order of reproductive and vegetative events, or flower-leaf sequences (FLSs). There is evidence to suggest that FLSs may be adaptive, with several competing hypotheses to explain their function. Here, we advance existing hypotheses with a new framework that accounts for quantitative FLS variation at multiple taxonomic scales using case studies from temperate forests. Our inquiry provides several major insights towards a better understanding of FLS variation. First, we show that support for FLS hypotheses is sensitive to how FLSs are defined, with quantitative definitions being the most useful for robust hypothesis testing. Second, we demonstrate that concurrent support for multiple hypotheses should be the starting point for future FLS analyses. Finally, we highlight how adopting a quantitative, intraspecific approach generates new avenues for evaluating fitness consequences of FLS variation and provides cascading benefits to improving predictions of how climate change will alter FLSs and thereby reshape plant communities and ecosystems.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- D M Buonaiuto
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, MA, 02131, USA
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | - Ignacio Morales-Castilla
- Global Change Ecology and Evolution (GloCEE), Department of Life Sciences, University of Alcalà, Alcalà de Henares, 28805, Spain
| | - E M Wolkovich
- Forest & Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Chamberlain CJ, Cook BI, Morales-Castilla I, Wolkovich EM. Climate change reshapes the drivers of false spring risk across European trees. New Phytol 2021; 229:323-334. [PMID: 32767753 DOI: 10.1111/nph.16851] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/17/2020] [Accepted: 07/22/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Temperate forests are shaped by late spring freezes after budburst - false springs - which may shift with climate change. Research to date has generated conflicting results, potentially because few studies focus on the multiple underlying drivers of false spring risk. Here, we assessed the effects of mean spring temperature, distance from the coast, elevation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using PEP725 leafout data for six tree species across 11 648 sites in Europe, to determine which were the strongest predictors of false spring risk and how these predictors shifted with climate change. All predictors influenced false spring risk before recent warming, but their effects have shifted in both magnitude and direction with warming. These shifts have potentially magnified the variation in false spring risk among species with an increase in risk for early-leafout species (i.e. Aesculus hippocastanum, Alnus glutinosa, Betula pendula) compared with a decline or no change in risk among late-leafout species (i.e. Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur). Our results show how climate change has reshaped the drivers of false spring risk, complicating forecasts of future false springs, and potentially reshaping plant community dynamics given uneven shifts in risk across species.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Catherine J Chamberlain
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, 1300 Centre Street, Boston, MA, 02131, USA
- Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | - Benjamin I Cook
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | - Ignacio Morales-Castilla
- GloCEE - Global Change Ecology and Evolution Group, Department of Life Sciences, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, 28805, Spain
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, 22030, USA
| | - E M Wolkovich
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, 1300 Centre Street, Boston, MA, 02131, USA
- Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
- Forest & Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Joly S, Flynn DFB, Wolkovich EM. On the importance of accounting for intraspecific genomic relatedness in multi‐species studies. Methods Ecol Evol 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/2041-210x.13184] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Simon Joly
- Montreal Botanical Garden Montréal Québec Canada
- Institut de recherche en biologie végétale Département de sciences biologiques Université de Montréal Montréal Québec Canada
| | - Dan F. B. Flynn
- Department of Organismic & Evolutionary Biology Harvard University Harvard Massachusetts USA
- Arnold Arboretum Harvard University Harvard Massachusetts USA
| | - Elizabeth M. Wolkovich
- Department of Organismic & Evolutionary Biology Harvard University Harvard Massachusetts USA
- Arnold Arboretum Harvard University Harvard Massachusetts USA
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
Chamberlain CJ, Cook BI, García de Cortázar-Atauri I, Wolkovich EM. Rethinking false spring risk. Glob Chang Biol 2019; 25:2209-2220. [PMID: 30953573 PMCID: PMC8844870 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14642] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2019] [Accepted: 03/25/2019] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Temperate plants are at risk of being exposed to late spring freezes. These freeze events-often called false springs-are one of the strongest factors determining temperate plants species range limits and can impose high ecological and economic damage. As climate change may alter the prevalence and severity of false springs, our ability to forecast such events has become more critical, and it has led to a growing body of research. Many false spring studies largely simplify the myriad complexities involved in assessing false spring risks and damage. While these studies have helped advance the field and may provide useful estimates at large scales, studies at the individual to community levels must integrate more complexity for accurate predictions of plant damage from late spring freezes. Here, we review current metrics of false spring, and how, when, and where plants are most at risk of freeze damage. We highlight how life stage, functional group, species differences in morphology and phenology, and regional climatic differences contribute to the damage potential of false springs. More studies aimed at understanding relationships among species tolerance and avoidance strategies, climatic regimes, and the environmental cues that underlie spring phenology would improve predictions at all biological levels. An integrated approach to assessing past and future spring freeze damage would provide novel insights into fundamental plant biology and offer more robust predictions as climate change progresses, which are essential for mitigating the adverse ecological and economic effects of false springs.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Catherine J Chamberlain
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
- Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
| | - Benjamin I Cook
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York
| | | | - Elizabeth M Wolkovich
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
- Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
- Forest and Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Ettinger AK, Chuine I, Cook BI, Dukes JS, Ellison AM, Johnston MR, Panetta AM, Rollinson CR, Vitasse Y, Wolkovich EM. How do climate change experiments alter plot-scale climate? Ecol Lett 2019; 22:748-763. [PMID: 30687988 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13223] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2018] [Revised: 06/18/2018] [Accepted: 12/17/2018] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
To understand and forecast biological responses to climate change, scientists frequently use field experiments that alter temperature and precipitation. Climate manipulations can manifest in complex ways, however, challenging interpretations of biological responses. We reviewed publications to compile a database of daily plot-scale climate data from 15 active-warming experiments. We find that the common practices of analysing treatments as mean or categorical changes (e.g. warmed vs. unwarmed) masks important variation in treatment effects over space and time. Our synthesis showed that measured mean warming, in plots with the same target warming within a study, differed by up to 1.6 ∘ C (63% of target), on average, across six studies with blocked designs. Variation was high across sites and designs: for example, plots differed by 1.1 ∘ C (47% of target) on average, for infrared studies with feedback control (n = 3) vs. by 2.2 ∘ C (80% of target) on average for infrared with constant wattage designs (n = 2). Warming treatments produce non-temperature effects as well, such as soil drying. The combination of these direct and indirect effects is complex and can have important biological consequences. With a case study of plant phenology across five experiments in our database, we show how accounting for drier soils with warming tripled the estimated sensitivity of budburst to temperature. We provide recommendations for future analyses, experimental design, and data sharing to improve our mechanistic understanding from climate change experiments, and thus their utility to accurately forecast species' responses.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- A K Ettinger
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, MA, 02131, USA.,Tufts University, Medford, MA, 02155, USA
| | - I Chuine
- CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier, EPHE IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - B I Cook
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA.,NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, 10025, USA
| | - J S Dukes
- Department of Forestry and Natural Resources and Department of Biological Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, 47907, USA
| | - A M Ellison
- Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, MA, 01366, USA
| | - M R Johnston
- Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | - A M Panetta
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - C R Rollinson
- Center for Tree Science, The Morton Arboretum, Lisle, IL, 60532, USA
| | - Y Vitasse
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland.,SwissForestLab, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - E M Wolkovich
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, MA, 02131, USA.,Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA.,Forest & Conservation Sciences, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Ettinger AK, Gee S, Wolkovich EM. Phenological sequences: how early-season events define those that follow. Am J Bot 2018; 105:1771-1780. [PMID: 30324664 DOI: 10.1002/ajb2.1174] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2018] [Accepted: 06/28/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
PREMISE OF THE STUDY Plant phenology is a critical trait, as the timings of phenophases such as budburst, leafout, flowering, and fruiting, are important to plant fitness. Despite much study about when individual phenophases occur and how they may shift with climate change, little is known about how multiple phenophases relate to one another across an entire growing season. We test the extent to which early phenological stages constrain later ones, throughout a growing season, across 25 angiosperm tree species. METHODS We observed phenology (budburst, leafout, flowering, fruiting, and senescence) of 118 individual trees across 25 species, from April through December 2015. KEY RESULTS We found that early phenological events weakly constrain most later events, with the strongest constraints seen between consecutive stages. In contrast, interphase duration was a much stronger predictor of phenology, especially for reproductive events, suggesting that the development time of flowers and fruits may constrain the phenology of these events. CONCLUSIONS Much of the variation in later phenological events can be explained by the timing of earlier events and by interphase durations. This highlights that a shift in one phenophase may often have cascading effects on later phases. Accurate forecasts of climate change impacts should therefore include multiple phenophases within and across years.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- A K Ettinger
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, 02131, USA
- Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts, 02155, USA
| | - S Gee
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, 02131, USA
| | - E M Wolkovich
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts, 02131, USA
- Forest & Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, V6T 1Z4, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
19
|
Flynn DFB, Wolkovich EM. Temperature and photoperiod drive spring phenology across all species in a temperate forest community. New Phytol 2018; 219:1353-1362. [PMID: 29870050 DOI: 10.1111/nph.15232] [Citation(s) in RCA: 89] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2018] [Accepted: 04/15/2018] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Accurate predictions of spring plant phenology with climate change are critical for projections of growing seasons, plant communities and a number of ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Progress towards prediction, however, has been slow because the major cues known to drive phenology - temperature (including winter chilling and spring forcing) and photoperiod - generally covary in nature and may interact, making accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change complex and nonlinear. Alternatively, recent work suggests many species may be dominated by one cue, which would make predictions much simpler. Here, we manipulated all three cues across 28 woody species from two North American forests. All species responded to all cues examined. Chilling exerted a strong effect, especially on budburst (-15.8 d), with responses to forcing and photoperiod greatest for leafout (-19.1 and -11.2 d, respectively). Interactions between chilling and forcing suggest that each cue may compensate somewhat for the other. Cues varied across species, leading to staggered leafout within each community and supporting the idea that phenology is a critical aspect of species' temporal niches. Our results suggest that predicting the spring phenology of communities will be difficult, as all species we studied could have complex, nonlinear responses to future warming.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- D F B Flynn
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, 1300 Centre Street, Boston, MA, 02130, USA
- Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | - E M Wolkovich
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, 1300 Centre Street, Boston, MA, 02130, USA
- Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford Street, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| |
Collapse
|
20
|
Kharouba HM, Ehrlén J, Gelman A, Bolmgren K, Allen JM, Travers SE, Wolkovich EM. Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2018; 115:5211-5216. [PMID: 29666247 PMCID: PMC5960279 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1714511115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 177] [Impact Index Per Article: 29.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Phenological responses to climate change (e.g., earlier leaf-out or egg hatch date) are now well documented and clearly linked to rising temperatures in recent decades. Such shifts in the phenologies of interacting species may lead to shifts in their synchrony, with cascading community and ecosystem consequences. To date, single-system studies have provided no clear picture, either finding synchrony shifts may be extremely prevalent [Mayor SJ, et al. (2017) Sci Rep 7:1902] or relatively uncommon [Iler AM, et al. (2013) Glob Chang Biol 19:2348-2359], suggesting that shifts toward asynchrony may be infrequent. A meta-analytic approach would provide insights into global trends and how they are linked to climate change. We compared phenological shifts among pairwise species interactions (e.g., predator-prey) using published long-term time-series data of phenological events from aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across four continents since 1951 to determine whether recent climate change has led to overall shifts in synchrony. We show that the relative timing of key life cycle events of interacting species has changed significantly over the past 35 years. Further, by comparing the period before major climate change (pre-1980s) and after, we show that estimated changes in phenology and synchrony are greater in recent decades. However, there has been no consistent trend in the direction of these changes. Our findings show that there have been shifts in the timing of interacting species in recent decades; the next challenges are to improve our ability to predict the direction of change and understand the full consequences for communities and ecosystems.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Heather M Kharouba
- Center for Population Biology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616;
- Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
| | - Johan Ehrlén
- Department of Ecology, Environment, and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Andrew Gelman
- Department of Statistics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027
| | - Kjell Bolmgren
- Unit for Field-Based Forest Research, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, SE-363 94 Lammhult, Sweden
| | - Jenica M Allen
- Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824
| | - Steve E Travers
- Department of Biological Sciences, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND 58108
| | - Elizabeth M Wolkovich
- Arnold Arboretum of Harvard University, Boston MA, 02130
- Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, 02138
| |
Collapse
|
21
|
Wolkovich EM, Allesina S, Cottingham KL, Moore JC, Sandin SA, de Mazancourt C. Linking the green and brown worlds: the prevalence and effect of multichannel feeding in food webs. Ecology 2014. [DOI: 10.1890/13-1721.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
|
22
|
Francis TB, Wolkovich EM, Scheuerell MD, Katz SL, Holmes EE, Hampton SE. Shifting regimes and changing interactions in the Lake Washington, U.S.A., plankton community from 1962-1994. PLoS One 2014; 9:e110363. [PMID: 25338087 PMCID: PMC4206405 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0110363] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2014] [Accepted: 09/18/2014] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding how changing climate, nutrient regimes, and invasive species shift food web structure is critically important in ecology. Most analytical approaches, however, assume static species interactions and environmental effects across time. Therefore, we applied multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models in a moving window context to test for shifting plankton community interactions and effects of environmental variables on plankton abundance in Lake Washington, U.S.A. from 1962–1994, following reduced nutrient loading in the 1960s and the rise of Daphnia in the 1970s. The moving-window MAR (mwMAR) approach showed shifts in the strengths of interactions between Daphnia, a dominant grazer, and other plankton taxa between a high nutrient, Oscillatoria-dominated regime and a low nutrient, Daphnia-dominated regime. The approach also highlighted the inhibiting influence of the cyanobacterium Oscillatoria on other plankton taxa in the community. Overall community stability was lowest during the period of elevated nutrient loading and Oscillatoria dominance. Despite recent warming of the lake, we found no evidence that anomalous temperatures impacted plankton abundance. Our results suggest mwMAR modeling is a useful approach that can be applied across diverse ecosystems, when questions involve shifting relationships within food webs, and among species and abiotic drivers.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Tessa B. Francis
- University of Washington Tacoma, Puget Sound Institute, Tacoma, Washington, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Elizabeth M. Wolkovich
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
- The Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Mark D. Scheuerell
- Fish Ecology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Stephen L. Katz
- Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary, National Ocean Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
| | - Elizabeth E. Holmes
- Conservation Biology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Stephanie E. Hampton
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
| |
Collapse
|
23
|
Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth M Wolkovich
- Arnold Arboretum, 1300 Centre Street, Boston, MA, 02131, USA
- Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, 22 Divinity Avenue, Cambridge, MA, 02138, USA
| | | |
Collapse
|
24
|
Wolkovich EM, Cleland EE. Phenological niches and the future of invaded ecosystems with climate change. AoB Plants 2014; 6:plu013. [PMID: 24876295 PMCID: PMC4025191 DOI: 10.1093/aobpla/plu013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 64] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2013] [Accepted: 03/18/2014] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
In recent years, research in invasion biology has focused increasing attention on understanding the role of phenology in shaping plant invasions. Multiple studies have found non-native species that tend to flower distinctly early or late in the growing season, advance more with warming or have shifted earlier with climate change compared with native species. This growing body of literature has focused on patterns of phenological differences, but there is a need now for mechanistic studies of how phenology contributes to invasions. To do this, however, requires understanding how phenology fits within complex functional trait relationships. Towards this goal, we review recent literature linking phenology with other functional traits, and discuss the role of phenology in mediating how plants experience disturbance and stress-via climate, herbivory and competition-across the growing season. Because climate change may alter the timing and severity of stress and disturbance in many systems, it could provide novel opportunities for invasion-depending upon the dominant climate controller of the system, the projected climate change, and the traits of native and non-native species. Based on our current understanding of plant phenological and growth strategies-especially rapid growing, early-flowering species versus later-flowering species that make slower-return investments in growth-we project optimal periods for invasions across three distinct systems under current climate change scenarios. Research on plant invasions and phenology within this predictive framework would provide a more rigorous test of what drives invader success, while at the same time testing basic plant ecological theory. Additionally, extensions could provide the basis to model how ecosystem processes may shift in the future with continued climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth M Wolkovich
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada Arnold Arboretum, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA Organismic & Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Elsa E Cleland
- Division of Biological Sciences, University of California - San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
25
|
Wolkovich EM, Cook BI, Davies TJ. Progress towards an interdisciplinary science of plant phenology: building predictions across space, time and species diversity. New Phytol 2014; 201:1156-62. [PMID: 24649487 DOI: 10.1111/nph.12599] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has brought renewed interest in the study of plant phenology - the timing of life history events. Data on shifting phenologies with warming have accumulated rapidly, yet research has been comparatively slow to explain the diversity of phenological responses observed across latitudes, growing seasons and species. Here, we outline recent efforts to synthesize perspectives on plant phenology across the fields of ecology, climate science and evolution. We highlight three major axes that vary among these disciplines: relative focus on abiotic versus biotic drivers of phenology, on plastic versus genetic drivers of intraspecific variation, and on cross-species versus autecological approaches. Recent interdisciplinary efforts, building on data covering diverse species and climate space, have found a greater role of temperature in controlling phenology at higher latitudes and for early-flowering species in temperate systems. These efforts have also made progress in understanding the tremendous diversity of responses across species by incorporating evolutionary relatedness, and linking phenological flexibility to invasions and plant performance. Future research with a focus on data collection in areas outside the temperate mid-latitudes and across species' ranges, alongside better integration of how risk and investment shape plant phenology, offers promise for further progress.
Collapse
|
26
|
Seabloom EW, Borer ET, Buckley Y, Cleland EE, Davies K, Firn J, Harpole WS, Hautier Y, Lind E, MacDougall A, Orrock JL, Prober SM, Adler P, Alberti J, Anderson TM, Bakker JD, Biederman LA, Blumenthal D, Brown CS, Brudvig LA, Caldeira M, Chu C, Crawley MJ, Daleo P, Damschen EI, D'Antonio CM, DeCrappeo NM, Dickman CR, Du G, Fay PA, Frater P, Gruner DS, Hagenah N, Hector A, Helm A, Hillebrand H, Hofmockel KS, Humphries HC, Iribarne O, Jin VL, Kay A, Kirkman KP, Klein JA, Knops JMH, La Pierre KJ, Ladwig LM, Lambrinos JG, Leakey ADB, Li Q, Li W, McCulley R, Melbourne B, Mitchell CE, Moore JL, Morgan J, Mortensen B, O'Halloran LR, Pärtel M, Pascual J, Pyke DA, Risch AC, Salguero-Gómez R, Sankaran M, Schuetz M, Simonsen A, Smith M, Stevens C, Sullivan L, Wardle GM, Wolkovich EM, Wragg PD, Wright J, Yang L. Predicting invasion in grassland ecosystems: is exotic dominance the real embarrassment of richness? Glob Chang Biol 2013; 19:3677-3687. [PMID: 24038796 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12370] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2013] [Revised: 07/16/2013] [Accepted: 08/14/2013] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
Invasions have increased the size of regional species pools, but are typically assumed to reduce native diversity. However, global-scale tests of this assumption have been elusive because of the focus on exotic species richness, rather than relative abundance. This is problematic because low invader richness can indicate invasion resistance by the native community or, alternatively, dominance by a single exotic species. Here, we used a globally replicated study to quantify relationships between exotic richness and abundance in grass-dominated ecosystems in 13 countries on six continents, ranging from salt marshes to alpine tundra. We tested effects of human land use, native community diversity, herbivore pressure, and nutrient limitation on exotic plant dominance. Despite its widespread use, exotic richness was a poor proxy for exotic dominance at low exotic richness, because sites that contained few exotic species ranged from relatively pristine (low exotic richness and cover) to almost completely exotic-dominated ones (low exotic richness but high exotic cover). Both exotic cover and richness were predicted by native plant diversity (native grass richness) and land use (distance to cultivation). Although climate was important for predicting both exotic cover and richness, climatic factors predicting cover (precipitation variability) differed from those predicting richness (maximum temperature and mean temperature in the wettest quarter). Herbivory and nutrient limitation did not predict exotic richness or cover. Exotic dominance was greatest in areas with low native grass richness at the site- or regional-scale. Although this could reflect native grass displacement, a lack of biotic resistance is a more likely explanation, given that grasses comprise the most aggressive invaders. These findings underscore the need to move beyond richness as a surrogate for the extent of invasion, because this metric confounds monodominance with invasion resistance. Monitoring species' relative abundance will more rapidly advance our understanding of invasions.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Eric W Seabloom
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Behavior, University of MN, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
27
|
Wolkovich EM, Davies TJ, Schaefer H, Cleland EE, Cook BI, Travers SE, Willis CG, Davis CC. Temperature-dependent shifts in phenology contribute to the success of exotic species with climate change. Am J Bot 2013; 100:1407-21. [PMID: 23797366 DOI: 10.3732/ajb.1200478] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
PREMISE OF THE STUDY The study of how phenology may contribute to the assembly of plant communities has a long history in ecology. Climate change has brought renewed interest in this area, with many studies examining how phenology may contribute to the success of exotic species. In particular, there is increasing evidence that exotic species occupy unique phenological niches and track climate change more closely than native species. METHODS Here, we use long-term records of species’ first flowering dates from fi ve northern hemisphere temperate sites (Chinnor, UK and in the United States, Concord, Massachusetts; Fargo, North Dakota; Konza Prairie, Kansas; and Washington,D.C.) to examine whether invaders have distinct phenologies. Using a broad phylogenetic framework, we tested for differences between exotic and native species in mean annual flowering time, phenological changes in response to temperature and precipitation,and longer-term shifts in first flowering dates during recent pronounced climate change (“flowering time shifts”). KEY RESULTS Across North American sites, exotic species have shifted flowering with climate change while native species, on average, have not. In the three mesic systems, exotic species exhibited higher tracking of interannual variation in temperature,such that flowering advances more with warming, than native species. Across the two grassland systems, however, exotic species differed from native species primarily in responses to precipitation and soil moisture, not temperature. CONCLUSIONS Our findings provide cross-site support for the role of phenology and climate change in explaining species’ invasions.Further, they support recent evidence that exotic species may be important drivers of extended growing seasons observed with climate change in North America.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth M Wolkovich
- Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
28
|
Cleland EE, Allen JM, Crimmins TM, Dunne JA, Pau S, Travers SE, Zavaleta ES, Wolkovich EM. Phenological tracking enables positive species responses to climate change. Ecology 2012; 93:1765-71. [PMID: 22928404 DOI: 10.1890/11-1912.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 156] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/10/2023]
Abstract
Earlier spring phenology observed in many plant species in recent decades provides compelling evidence that species are already responding to the rising global temperatures associated with anthropogenic climate change. There is great variability among species, however, in their phenological sensitivity to temperature. Species that do not phenologically "track" climate change may be at a disadvantage if their growth becomes limited by missed interactions with mutualists, or a shorter growing season relative to earlier-active competitors. Here, we set out to test the hypothesis that phenological sensitivity could be used to predict species performance in a warming climate, by synthesizing results across terrestrial warming experiments. We assembled data for 57 species across 24 studies where flowering or vegetative phenology was matched with a measure of species performance. Performance metrics included biomass, percent cover, number of flowers, or individual growth. We found that species that advanced their phenology with warming also increased their performance, whereas those that did not advance tended to decline in performance with warming. This indicates that species that cannot phenologically "track" climate may be at increased risk with future climate change, and it suggests that phenological monitoring may provide an important tool for setting future conservation priorities.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Elsa E Cleland
- Ecology, Behavior, and Evolution Section, University of California-San Diego, La Jolla, California 92093-0116, USA.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
29
|
Cook BI, Wolkovich EM, Davies TJ, Ault TR, Betancourt JL, Allen JM, Bolmgren K, Cleland EE, Crimmins TM, Kraft NJB, Lancaster LT, Mazer SJ, McCabe GJ, McGill BJ, Parmesan C, Pau S, Regetz J, Salamin N, Schwartz MD, Travers SE. Sensitivity of Spring Phenology to Warming Across Temporal and Spatial Climate Gradients in Two Independent Databases. Ecosystems 2012. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-012-9584-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 51] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/27/2022]
|
30
|
Abstract
The tendency for more closely related species to share similar traits and ecological strategies can be explained by their longer shared evolutionary histories and represents phylogenetic conservatism. How strongly species traits co-vary with phylogeny can significantly impact how we analyze cross-species data and can influence our interpretation of assembly rules in the rapidly expanding field of community phylogenetics. Phylogenetic conservatism is typically quantified by analyzing the distribution of species values on the phylogenetic tree that connects them. Many phylogenetic approaches, however, assume a completely sampled phylogeny: while we have good estimates of deeper phylogenetic relationships for many species-rich groups, such as birds and flowering plants, we often lack information on more recent interspecific relationships (i.e., within a genus). A common solution has been to represent these relationships as polytomies on trees using taxonomy as a guide. Here we show that such trees can dramatically inflate estimates of phylogenetic conservatism quantified using S. P. Blomberg et al.'s K statistic. Using simulations, we show that even randomly generated traits can appear to be phylogenetically conserved on poorly resolved trees. We provide a simple rarefaction-based solution that can reliably retrieve unbiased estimates of K, and we illustrate our method using data on first flowering times from Thoreau's woods (Concord, Massachusetts, USA).
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- T Jonathan Davies
- Department of Biology, McGill University, 1205 ave Docteur Penfield, Montreal, Quebec H3A 1B1 Canada.
| | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
31
|
Abstract
• The timing of flowering is a critical component of the ecology of plants and has the potential to structure plant communities. Yet, we know little about how the timing of flowering relates to other functional traits, species abundance, and average environmental conditions. • Here, we assessed first flowering dates (FFDs) in a North American tallgrass prairie (Konza Prairie) for 431 herbaceous species and compared them with a series of other functional traits, environmental metrics, and species abundance across ecological contrasts. • The pattern of FFDs among the species of the Konza grassland was shaped by local climate, can be linked to resource use by species, and patterns of species abundance across the landscape. Peak FFD for the community occurred when soils were typically both warm and wet, while relatively few species began flowering when soils tended to be the driest. Compared with late-flowering species, species that flowered early had lower leaf tissue density and were more abundant on uplands than lowlands. • Flowering phenology can contribute to the structuring of grassland communities, but was largely independent of most functional traits. Therefore, selection for flowering phenology may be independent of general resource strategies.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Joseph M Craine
- Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66502, USA
| | - Elizabeth M Wolkovich
- Ecology, Behavior & Evolution Section, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive #0116, La Jolla, CA 92093,USA
| | - E Gene Towne
- Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66502, USA
| | - Steven W Kembel
- Center for Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403, USA
| |
Collapse
|
32
|
|
33
|
Firn J, Moore JL, MacDougall AS, Borer ET, Seabloom EW, HilleRisLambers J, Harpole WS, Cleland EE, Brown CS, Knops JMH, Prober SM, Pyke DA, Farrell KA, Bakker JD, O'Halloran LR, Adler PB, Collins SL, D'Antonio CM, Crawley MJ, Wolkovich EM, La Pierre KJ, Melbourne BA, Hautier Y, Morgan JW, Leakey ADB, Kay A, McCulley R, Davies KF, Stevens CJ, Chu CJ, Holl KD, Klein JA, Fay PA, Hagenah N, Kirkman KP, Buckley YM. Abundance of introduced species at home predicts abundance away in herbaceous communities. Ecol Lett 2011; 14:274-81. [PMID: 21281419 DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01584.x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 81] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Many ecosystems worldwide are dominated by introduced plant species, leading to loss of biodiversity and ecosystem function. A common but rarely tested assumption is that these plants are more abundant in introduced vs. native communities, because ecological or evolutionary-based shifts in populations underlie invasion success. Here, data for 26 herbaceous species at 39 sites, within eight countries, revealed that species abundances were similar at native (home) and introduced (away) sites - grass species were generally abundant home and away, while forbs were low in abundance, but more abundant at home. Sites with six or more of these species had similar community abundance hierarchies, suggesting that suites of introduced species are assembling similarly on different continents. Overall, we found that substantial changes to populations are not necessarily a pre-condition for invasion success and that increases in species abundance are unusual. Instead, abundance at home predicts abundance away, a potentially useful additional criterion for biosecurity programmes.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer Firn
- CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, St. Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Collapse
|
34
|
|