How Does the Evolution of Universal Ecological Traits Affect Population Size? Lessons from Simple Models

Infection-induced increases to population size during cycles in a discrete-time epidemic model

One-dimensional discrete-time population models, such as those that involve Logistic or Ricker growth, can exhibit periodic and chaotic dynamics. Expanding the system by one dimension to incorporate epidemiological interactions causes an interesting complexity of new behaviors. Here, we examine a discrete-time two-dimensional susceptible-infectious (SI) model with Ricker growth and show that the introduction of infection can not only produce a distinctly different bifurcation structure than that of the underlying disease-free system but also lead to counter-intuitive increases in population size. We use numerical bifurcation analysis to determine the influence of infection on the location and types of bifurcations. In addition, we examine the appearance and extent of a phenomenon known as the 'hydra effect,' i.e., increases in total population size when factors, such as mortality, that act negatively on a population, are increased. Previous work, primarily focused on dynamics at fixed points, showed that the introduction of infection that reduces fecundity to the SI model can lead to a so-called 'infection-induced hydra effect.' Our work shows that even in such a simple two-dimensional SI model, the introduction of infection that alters fecundity or mortality can produce dynamics can lead to the appearance of a hydra effect, particularly when the disease-free population is at a cycle.

Demographic feedbacks during evolutionary rescue can slow or speed adaptive evolution

Populations declining toward extinction can persist via genetic adaptation in a process called evolutionary rescue. Predicting evolutionary rescue has applications ranging from conservation biology to medicine, but requires understanding and integrating the multiple effects of a stressful environmental change on population processes. Here we derive a simple expression for how generation time, a key determinant of the rate of evolution, varies with population size during evolutionary rescue. Change in generation time is quantitatively predicted by comparing how intraspecific competition and the source of maladaptation each affect the rates of births and deaths in the population. Depending on the difference between two parameters quantifying these effects, the model predicts that populations may experience substantial changes in their rate of adaptation in both positive and negative directions, or adapt consistently despite severe stress. These predictions were then tested by comparison to the results of individual-based simulations of evolutionary rescue, which validated that the tolerable rate of environmental change varied considerably as described by analytical results. We discuss how these results inform efforts to understand wildlife disease and adaptation to climate change, evolution in managed populations and treatment resistance in pathogens.

Multi-scale effects of habitat loss and the role of trait evolution

Habitat loss (HL) is a major cause of species extinctions. Although the effects of HL beyond the directly impacted area have been previously observed, they have not been modelled explicitly, especially in an eco-evolutionary context. To start filling this gap, we study a two-patch deterministic consumer-resource model, with one of the patches experiencing loss of resources as a special case of HL. Our model allows foraging and mating within a patch as well as between patches. We then introduce heritable variation in consumer traits related to resource utilization and patch use to investigate eco-evolutionary dynamics and compare results with constant and no trait variation scenarios. Our results show that HL in one patch can indeed reduce consumer densities in the neighbouring patch but can also increase consumer densities in the neighbouring patch when the resources are overexploited. Yet at the landscape scale, the effect of HL on consumer densities is consistently negative. Patch isolation increases consumer density in the patch experiencing HL but has generally negative effects on the neighbouring patch, with context-dependent results at the landscape scale. With high cross-patch dependence and coupled foraging and mating preferences, local HL can sometimes even lead to landscape-level consumer extinction. Eco-evolutionary dynamics can rescue consumers from such extinction in some cases if their death rates are sufficiently small. More generally, trait evolution had positive or negative effects on equilibrium consumer densities after HL, depending on the evolving trait and the spatial scale considered. In summary, our findings show that HL at a local scale can affect the neighbouring patch and the landscape as a whole, where heritable trait variation can, in some cases, alleviate the impact of HL. We thus suggest joint consideration of multiple spatial scales and trait variation when assessing and predicting the impacts of HL.

Phenotypic evolution in stochastic environments: The contribution of frequency- and density-dependent selection

Understanding how environmental variation affects phenotypic evolution requires models based on ecologically realistic assumptions that include variation in population size and specific mechanisms by which environmental fluctuations affect selection. Here we generalize quantitative genetic theory for environmentally induced stochastic selection to include general forms of frequency- and density-dependent selection. We show how the relevant fitness measure under stochastic selection relates to Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection, and present a general class of models in which density regulation acts through total use of resources rather than just population size. In this model, there is a constant adaptive topography for expected evolution, and the function maximized in the long run is the expected factor restricting population growth. This allows us to generalize several previous results and to explain why apparently " K -selected" species with slow life histories often have low carrying capacities. Our joint analysis of density- and frequency-dependent selection reveals more clearly the relationship between population dynamics and phenotypic evolution, enabling a broader range of eco-evolutionary analyses of some of the most interesting problems in evolution in the face of environmental variation.

Evolution alters post-invasion temporal dynamics in experimental communities

The causes and consequences of temporal variation in the abundance of organisms constitute central themes in ecological inquiry. Rapid evolution can occur over ecological time-scales, potentially resulting in altered temporal variation in abundance and complicating inferences about the consequences of temporal variation. We assessed whether evolution altered the temporal variability in species' abundances in simple assemblages of species. We then compared experimental results to predictions from two-species models to better understand our results in the context of competitive and predator-prey interactions. We compared founder populations and their evolved descendants in experimental communities of ciliates and rotifers. Using a series of orthogonal contrasts, we then evaluated whether: (a) evolutionary history of invaders or (b) residents, (c) co-evolution among invaders and residents, and (d) invasion itself altered temporal variability in species abundances following invasion by a novel species. Using two-species competition and predator-prey models, we also generated predictions to better understand the effects of evolution on temporal variation in the abundances of interacting species. Finally, we compared experimental and modelling results to aid in the interpretation of which interspecific interactions might be affected by ongoing evolution in our communities. In experimental populations, differing evolutionary histories resulted in significant differences among treatments in abundances and temporal variation in abundances of both resident and invading species. For the contrasts, we found evidence that evolutionary history of the invader and residents, co-evolution among invaders and residents, and invasion itself affected temporal variability in abundance, but the importance of each differed for the two communities and the species within those communities. When comparing experimental results to model predictions, the increased abundance and decreased temporal variation in one invader, Euplotes daidaleos, are potentially consistent with evolution resulting in reduced attack rates in the novel community. Evolutionary history alone can affect temporal variation in the abundances of species, generating important consequences for interspecific interactions among species and complicating inferences about the consequences of temporal variability in biological communities.

Understanding Maladaptation by Uniting Ecological and Evolutionary Perspectives

Evolutionary biologists have long trained their sights on adaptation, focusing on the power of natural selection to produce relative fitness advantages while often ignoring changes in absolute fitness. Ecologists generally have taken a different tack, focusing on changes in abundance and ranges that reflect absolute fitness while often ignoring relative fitness. Uniting these perspectives, we articulate various causes of relative and absolute maladaptation and review numerous examples of their occurrence. This review indicates that maladaptation is reasonably common from both perspectives, yet often in contrasting ways. That is, maladaptation can appear strong from a relative fitness perspective, yet populations can be growing in abundance. Conversely, resident individuals can appear locally adapted (relative to nonresident individuals) yet be declining in abundance. Understanding and interpreting these disconnects between relative and absolute maladaptation, as well as the cases of agreement, is increasingly critical in the face of accelerating human-mediated environmental change. We therefore present a framework for studying maladaptation, focusing in particular on the relationship between absolute and relative fitness, thereby drawing together evolutionary and ecological perspectives. The unification of these ecological and evolutionary perspectives has the potential to bring together previously disjunct research areas while addressing key conceptual issues and specific practical problems.

Causes of maladaptation

Evolutionary biologists tend to approach the study of the natural world within a framework of adaptation, inspired perhaps by the power of natural selection to produce fitness advantages that drive population persistence and biological diversity. In contrast, evolution has rarely been studied through the lens of adaptation's complement, maladaptation. This contrast is surprising because maladaptation is a prevalent feature of evolution: population trait values are rarely distributed optimally; local populations often have lower fitness than imported ones; populations decline; and local and global extinctions are common. Yet we lack a general framework for understanding maladaptation; for instance in terms of distribution, severity, and dynamics. Similar uncertainties apply to the causes of maladaptation. We suggest that incorporating maladaptation-based perspectives into evolutionary biology would facilitate better understanding of the natural world. Approaches within a maladaptation framework might be especially profitable in applied evolution contexts - where reductions in fitness are common. Toward advancing a more balanced study of evolution, here we present a conceptual framework describing causes of maladaptation. As the introductory article for a Special Feature on maladaptation, we also summarize the studies in this Issue, highlighting the causes of maladaptation in each study. We hope that our framework and the papers in this Special Issue will help catalyze the study of maladaptation in applied evolution, supporting greater understanding of evolutionary dynamics in our rapidly changing world.