Predicting in vivo glioma growth with the reaction diffusion equation constrained by quantitative magnetic resonance imaging data

Predicting the spatio-temporal response of recurrent glioblastoma treated with rhenium-186 labelled nanoliposomes

Rhenium-186 (186Re) labeled nanoliposome (RNL) therapy for recurrent glioblastoma patients has shown promise to improve outcomes by locally delivering radiation to affected areas. To optimize the delivery of RNL, we have developed a framework to predict patient-specific response to RNL using image-guided mathematical models.

Methods

We calibrated a family of reaction-diffusion type models with multi-modality imaging data from ten patients (NCR01906385) to predict the spatio-temporal dynamics of each patient's tumor. The data consisted of longitudinal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) to estimate tumor burden and local RNL activity, respectively. The optimal model from the family was selected and used to predict future growth. A simplified version of the model was used in a leave-one-out analysis to predict the development of an individual patient's tumor, based on cohort parameters.

Results

Across the cohort, predictions using patient-specific parameters with the selected model were able to achieve Spearman correlation coefficients (SCC) of 0.98 and 0.93 for tumor volume and total cell number, respectively, when compared to the measured data. Predictions utilizing the leave-one-out method achieved SCCs of 0.89 and 0.88 for volume and total cell number across the population, respectively.

Conclusion

We have shown that patient-specific calibrations of a biology-based mathematical model can be used to make early predictions of response to RNL therapy. Furthermore, the leave-one-out framework indicates that radiation doses determined by SPECT can be used to assign model parameters to make predictions directly following the conclusion of RNL treatment.

Statement of Significance

This manuscript explores the application of computational models to predict response to radionuclide therapy in glioblastoma. There are few, to our knowledge, examples of mathematical models used in clinical radionuclide therapy. We have tested a family of models to determine the applicability of different radiation coupling terms for response to the localized radiation delivery. We show that with patient-specific parameter estimation, we can make accurate predictions of future glioblastoma response to the treatment. As a comparison, we have shown that population trends in response can be used to forecast growth from the moment the treatment has been delivered.In addition to the high simulation and prediction accuracy our modeling methods have achieved, the evaluation of a family of models has given insight into the response dynamics of radionuclide therapy. These dynamics, while different than we had initially hypothesized, should encourage future imaging studies involving high dosage radiation treatments, with specific emphasis on the local immune and vascular response.

Predictive digital twin for optimizing patient-specific radiotherapy regimens under uncertainty in high-grade gliomas

We develop a methodology to create data-driven predictive digital twins for optimal risk-aware clinical decision-making. We illustrate the methodology as an enabler for an anticipatory personalized treatment that accounts for uncertainties in the underlying tumor biology in high-grade gliomas, where heterogeneity in the response to standard-of-care (SOC) radiotherapy contributes to sub-optimal patient outcomes. The digital twin is initialized through prior distributions derived from population-level clinical data in the literature for a mechanistic model's parameters. Then the digital twin is personalized using Bayesian model calibration for assimilating patient-specific magnetic resonance imaging data. The calibrated digital twin is used to propose optimal radiotherapy treatment regimens by solving a multi-objective risk-based optimization under uncertainty problem. The solution leads to a suite of patient-specific optimal radiotherapy treatment regimens exhibiting varying levels of trade-off between the two competing clinical objectives: (i) maximizing tumor control (characterized by minimizing the risk of tumor volume growth) and (ii) minimizing the toxicity from radiotherapy. The proposed digital twin framework is illustrated by generating an in silico cohort of 100 patients with high-grade glioma growth and response properties typically observed in the literature. For the same total radiation dose as the SOC, the personalized treatment regimens lead to median increase in tumor time to progression of around six days. Alternatively, for the same level of tumor control as the SOC, the digital twin provides optimal treatment options that lead to a median reduction in radiation dose by 16.7% (10 Gy) compared to SOC total dose of 60 Gy. The range of optimal solutions also provide options with increased doses for patients with aggressive cancer, where SOC does not lead to sufficient tumor control.

Bayesian Inference of Tissue Heterogeneity for Individualized Prediction of Glioma Growth

Reliably predicting the future spread of brain tumors using imaging data and on a subject-specific basis requires quantifying uncertainties in data, biophysical models of tumor growth, and spatial heterogeneity of tumor and host tissue. This work introduces a Bayesian framework to calibrate the two-/three-dimensional spatial distribution of the parameters within a tumor growth model to quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data and demonstrates its implementation in a pre-clinical model of glioma. The framework leverages an atlas-based brain segmentation of grey and white matter to establish subject-specific priors and tunable spatial dependencies of the model parameters in each region. Using this framework, the tumor-specific parameters are calibrated from quantitative MRI measurements early in the course of tumor development in four rats and used to predict the spatial development of the tumor at later times. The results suggest that the tumor model, calibrated by animal-specific imaging data at one time point, can accurately predict tumor shapes with a Dice coefficient 0.89. However, the reliability of the predicted volume and shape of tumors strongly relies on the number of earlier imaging time points used for calibrating the model. This study demonstrates, for the first time, the ability to determine the uncertainty in the inferred tissue heterogeneity and the model-predicted tumor shape.

Opportunities for improving brain cancer treatment outcomes through imaging-based mathematical modeling of the delivery of radiotherapy and immunotherapy

Immunotherapy has become a fourth pillar in the treatment of brain tumors and, when combined with radiation therapy, may improve patient outcomes and reduce the neurotoxicity. As with other combination therapies, the identification of a treatment schedule that maximizes the synergistic effect of radiation- and immune-therapy is a fundamental challenge. Mechanism-based mathematical modeling is one promising approach to systematically investigate therapeutic combinations to maximize positive outcomes within a rigorous framework. However, successful clinical translation of model-generated combinations of treatment requires patient-specific data to allow the models to be meaningfully initialized and parameterized. Quantitative imaging techniques have emerged as a promising source of high quality, spatially and temporally resolved data for the development and validation of mathematical models. In this review, we will present approaches to personalize mechanism-based modeling frameworks with patient data, and then discuss how these techniques could be leveraged to improve brain cancer outcomes through patient-specific modeling and optimization of treatment strategies.

Integrating mechanism-based modeling with biomedical imaging to build practical digital twins for clinical oncology

Digital twins employ mathematical and computational models to virtually represent a physical object (e.g., planes and human organs), predict the behavior of the object, and enable decision-making to optimize the future behavior of the object. While digital twins have been widely used in engineering for decades, their applications to oncology are only just emerging. Due to advances in experimental techniques quantitatively characterizing cancer, as well as advances in the mathematical and computational sciences, the notion of building and applying digital twins to understand tumor dynamics and personalize the care of cancer patients has been increasingly appreciated. In this review, we present the opportunities and challenges of applying digital twins in clinical oncology, with a particular focus on integrating medical imaging with mechanism-based, tissue-scale mathematical modeling. Specifically, we first introduce the general digital twin framework and then illustrate existing applications of image-guided digital twins in healthcare. Next, we detail both the imaging and modeling techniques that provide practical opportunities to build patient-specific digital twins for oncology. We then describe the current challenges and limitations in developing image-guided, mechanism-based digital twins for oncology along with potential solutions. We conclude by outlining five fundamental questions that can serve as a roadmap when designing and building a practical digital twin for oncology and attempt to provide answers for a specific application to brain cancer. We hope that this contribution provides motivation for the imaging science, oncology, and computational communities to develop practical digital twin technologies to improve the care of patients battling cancer.

Nonlocal Reaction-Diffusion Equations in Biomedical Applications

Nonlocal reaction-diffusion equations describe various biological and biomedical applications. Their mathematical properties are essentially different in comparison with the local equations, and this difference can lead to important biological implications. This review will present the state of the art in the investigation of nonlocal reaction-diffusion models in biomedical applications. We will consider various models arising in mathematical immunology, neuroscience, cancer modelling, and we will discuss their mathematical properties, nonlinear dynamics, resulting spatiotemporal patterns and biological significance.

A Multi-Compartment Model of Glioma Response to Fractionated Radiation Therapy Parameterized via Time-Resolved Microscopy Data

PURPOSE

Conventional radiobiology models, including the linear-quadratic model, do not explicitly account for the temporal effects of radiation, thereby making it difficult to make time-resolved predictions of tumor response to fractionated radiation. To overcome this limitation, we propose and validate an experimental-computational approach that predicts the changes in cell number over time in response to fractionated radiation.

METHODS

We irradiated 9L and C6 glioma cells with six different fractionation schemes yielding a total dose of either 16 Gy or 20 Gy, and then observed their response via time-resolved microscopy. Phase-contrast images and Cytotox Red images (to label dead cells) were collected every 4 to 6 hours up to 330 hours post-radiation. Using 75% of the total data (i.e., 262 9L curves and 211 C6 curves), we calibrated a two-species model describing proliferative and senescent cells. We then applied the calibrated parameters to a validation dataset (the remaining 25% of the data, i.e., 91 9L curves and 74 C6 curves) to predict radiation response. Model predictions were compared to the microscopy measurements using the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) and the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC).

RESULTS

For the 9L cells, we observed PCCs and CCCs between the model predictions and validation data of (mean ± standard error) 0.96 ± 0.007 and 0.88 ± 0.013, respectively, across all fractionation schemes. For the C6 cells, we observed PCCs and CCCs between model predictions and the validation data were 0.89 ± 0.008 and 0.75 ± 0.017, respectively, across all fractionation schemes.

CONCLUSION

By proposing a time-resolved mathematical model of fractionated radiation response that can be experimentally verified in vitro, this study is the first to establish a framework for quantitative characterization and prediction of the dynamic radiobiological response of 9L and C6 gliomas to fractionated radiotherapy.

Quantitative magnetic resonance imaging and tumor forecasting of breast cancer patients in the community setting

This protocol describes a complete data acquisition, analysis and computational forecasting pipeline for employing quantitative MRI data to predict the response of locally advanced breast cancer to neoadjuvant therapy in a community-based care setting. The methodology has previously been successfully applied to a heterogeneous patient population. The protocol details how to acquire the necessary images followed by registration, segmentation, quantitative perfusion and diffusion analysis, model calibration, and prediction. The data collection portion of the protocol requires ~25 min of scanning, postprocessing requires 2-3 h, and the model calibration and prediction components require ~10 h per patient depending on tumor size. The response of individual breast cancer patients to neoadjuvant therapy is forecast by application of a biophysical, reaction-diffusion mathematical model to these data. Successful application of the protocol results in coregistered MRI data from at least two scan visits that quantifies an individual tumor's size, cellularity and vascular properties. This enables a spatially resolved prediction of how a particular patient's tumor will respond to therapy. Expertise in image acquisition and analysis, as well as the numerical solution of partial differential equations, is required to carry out this protocol.

A computational model of glioma reveals opposing, stiffness-sensitive effects of leaky vasculature and tumor growth on tissue mechanical stress and porosity

A biphasic computational model of a growing, vascularized glioma within brain tissue was developed to account for unique features of gliomas, including soft surrounding brain tissue, their low stiffness relative to brain tissue, and a lack of draining lymphatics. This model is the first to couple nonlinear tissue deformation with porosity and tissue hydraulic conductivity to study the mechanical interaction of leaky vasculature and solid growth in an embedded glioma. The present model showed that leaky vasculature and elevated interstitial fluid pressure produce tensile stress within the tumor in opposition to the compressive stress produced by tumor growth. This tensile effect was more pronounced in softer tissue and resulted in a compressive stress concentration at the tumor rim that increased when tumor was softer than host. Aside from generating solid stress, fluid pressure-driven tissue deformation decreased the effective stiffness of the tumor while growth increased it, potentially leading to elevated stiffness in the tumor rim. A novel prediction of reduced porosity at the tumor rim was corroborated by direct comparison with estimates from our in vivo imaging studies. Antiangiogenic and radiation therapy were simulated by varying vascular leakiness and tissue hydraulic conductivity. These led to greater solid compression and interstitial pressure in the tumor, respectively, the former of which may promote tumor infiltration of the host. Our findings suggest that vascular leakiness has an important influence on in vivo solid stress, stiffness, and porosity fields in gliomas given their unique mechanical microenvironment.

Modeling of Glioma Growth with Mass Effect by Longitudinal Magnetic Resonance Imaging

It is well-known that expanding glioblastomas typically induce significant deformations of the surrounding parenchyma (i.e., the so-called ?mass effect?). In this study, we evaluate the performance of three mathematical models of tumor growth: 1) a reaction-diffusion-advection model which accounts for mass effect (RDAM), 2) a reaction-diffusion model with mass effect that is consistent only in the case of small deformations (RDM), and 3) a reaction-diffusion model that does not include the mass effect (RD). The models were calibrated with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data obtained during tumor development in a murine model of glioma (n = 9). We obtained T₂-weighted and contrast-enhanced T₁-weighted MRI at 6 time points over 10 days to determine the spatiotemporal variation in the mass effect and tumor concentration, respectively. We calibrated the three models using data 1) at the first four, 2) only at the first and fourth, and 3) only at the third and fourth time points. Each of these calibrations were run forward in time to predict the volume fraction of tumor cells at the conclusion of the experiment. The diffusion coefficient for the RDAM model (median of 10.65 ? 10^-3 mm²d^-1) is significantly less than those for the RD and RDM models (17.46 ? 10^-3 mm²d^-1 and 19.38 ? 10^-3 mm²d^-1, respectively). The tumor concentrations for the RD, RDM, and RDAM models have medians of 40.2%, 32.1%, and 44.7%, respectively, for the calibration using data from the first four time points. The RDM model most accurately predicts tumor growth, while the RDAM model presents the least variation in its estimates of the diffusion coefficient and proliferation rate. This study demonstrates that the mathematical models capture both tumor development and mass effect observed in experiments.

Patient specific, imaging-informed modeling of rhenium-186 nanoliposome delivery via convection-enhanced delivery in glioblastoma multiforme

Convection-enhanced delivery of rhenium-186 (¹⁸⁶Re)-nanoliposomes is a promising approach to provide precise delivery of large localized doses of radiation for patients with recurrent glioblastoma multiforme. Current approaches for treatment planning utilizing convection-enhanced delivery are designed for small molecule drugs and not for larger particles such as¹⁸⁶Re-nanoliposomes. To enable the treatment planning for¹⁸⁶Re-nanoliposomes delivery, we have developed a computational fluid dynamics approach to predict the distribution of nanoliposomes for individual patients. In this work, we construct, calibrate, and validate a family of computational fluid dynamics models to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of¹⁸⁶Re-nanoliposomes within the brain, utilizing patient-specific pre-operative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to assign material properties for an advection-diffusion transport model. The model family is calibrated to single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) images acquired during and after the infusion of¹⁸⁶Re-nanoliposomes for five patients enrolled in a Phase I/II trial (NCT Number NCT01906385), and is validated using a leave-one-out bootstrapping methodology for predicting the final distribution of the particles. After calibration, our models are capable of predicting the mid-delivery and final spatial distribution of¹⁸⁶Re-nanoliposomes with a Dice value of 0.69 ± 0.18 and a concordance correlation coefficient of 0.88 ± 0.12 (mean ± 95% confidence interval), using only the patient-specific, pre-operative MRI data, and calibrated model parameters from prior patients. These results demonstrate a proof-of-concept for a patient-specific modeling framework, which predicts the spatial distribution of nanoparticles. Further development of this approach could enable optimizing catheter placement for future studies employing convection-enhanced delivery.

Image-based personalization of computational models for predicting response of high-grade glioma to chemoradiation

High-grade gliomas are an aggressive and invasive malignancy which are susceptible to treatment resistance due to heterogeneity in intratumoral properties such as cell proliferation and density and perfusion. Non-invasive imaging approaches can measure these properties, which can then be used to calibrate patient-specific mathematical models of tumor growth and response. We employed multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to identify tumor extent (via contrast-enhanced T1-weighted, and T2-FLAIR) and capture intratumoral heterogeneity in cell density (via diffusion-weighted imaging) to calibrate a family of mathematical models of chemoradiation response in nine patients with unresected or partially resected disease. The calibrated model parameters were used to forecast spatially-mapped individual tumor response at future imaging visits. We then employed the Akaike information criteria to select the most parsimonious member from the family, a novel two-species model describing the enhancing and non-enhancing components of the tumor. Using this model, we achieved low error in predictions of the enhancing volume (median: - 2.5%, interquartile range: 10.0%) and a strong correlation in total cell count (Kendall correlation coefficient 0.79) at 3-months post-treatment. These preliminary results demonstrate the plausibility of using multiparametric MRI data to inform spatially-informative, biologically-based predictive models of tumor response in the setting of clinical high-grade gliomas.

Towards an Image-Informed Mathematical Model of In Vivo Response to Fractionated Radiation Therapy

Simple Summary

Using medical imaging data and computational models, we develop a modeling framework to provide personalized treatment response forecasts to fractionated radiation therapy for individual tumors. We evaluate this approach in an animal model of brain cancer and forecast changes in tumor cellularity and vasculature.

Abstract

Fractionated radiation therapy is central to the treatment of numerous malignancies, including high-grade gliomas where complete surgical resection is often impractical due to its highly invasive nature. Development of approaches to forecast response to fractionated radiation therapy may provide the ability to optimize or adapt treatment plans for radiotherapy. Towards this end, we have developed a family of 18 biologically-based mathematical models describing the response of both tumor and vasculature to fractionated radiation therapy. Importantly, these models can be personalized for individual tumors via quantitative imaging measurements. To evaluate this family of models, rats (n = 7) with U-87 glioblastomas were imaged with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) before, during, and after treatment with fractionated radiotherapy (with doses of either 2 Gy/day or 4 Gy/day for up to 10 days). Estimates of tumor and blood volume fractions, provided by diffusion-weighted MRI and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI, respectively, were used to calibrate tumor-specific model parameters. The Akaike Information Criterion was employed to select the most parsimonious model and determine an ensemble averaged model, and the resulting forecasts were evaluated at the global and local level. At the global level, the selected model’s forecast resulted in less than 16.2% error in tumor volume estimates. At the local (voxel) level, the median Pearson correlation coefficient across all prediction time points ranged from 0.57 to 0.87 for all animals. While the ensemble average forecast resulted in increased error (ranging from 4.0% to 1063%) in tumor volume predictions over the selected model, it increased the voxel wise correlation (by greater than 12.3%) for three of the animals. This study demonstrates the feasibility of calibrating a model of response by serial quantitative MRI data collected during fractionated radiotherapy to predict response at the conclusion of treatment.

Evaluating patient-specific neoadjuvant regimens for breast cancer via a mathematical model constrained by quantitative magnetic resonance imaging data

The ability to accurately predict response and then rigorously optimize a therapeutic regimen on a patient-specific basis, would transform oncology. Toward this end, we have developed an experimental-mathematical framework that integrates quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data into a biophysical model to predict patient-specific treatment response of locally advanced breast cancer to neoadjuvant therapy. Diffusion-weighted and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI data is collected prior to therapy, after 1 cycle of therapy, and at the completion of the first therapeutic regimen. The model is initialized and calibrated with the first 2 patient-specific MRI data sets to predict response at the third, which is then compared to patient outcomes (N = 18). The model's predictions for total cellularity, total volume, and the longest axis at the completion of the regimen are significant within expected measurement precision (P< 0.05) and strongly correlated with measured response (P < 0.01). Further, we use the model to investigate, in silico, a range of (practical) alternative treatment plans to achieve the greatest possible tumor control for each individual in a subgroup of patients (N = 13). The model identifies alternative dosing strategies predicted to achieve greater tumor control compared to the standard of care for 12 of 13 patients (P < 0.01). In summary, a predictive, mechanism-based mathematical model has demonstrated the ability to identify alternative treatment regimens that are forecasted to outperform the therapeutic regimens the patients clinically. This has important implications for clinical trial design with the opportunity to alter oncology care in the future.

Towards integration of 64Cu-DOTA-trastuzumab PET-CT and MRI with mathematical modeling to predict response to neoadjuvant therapy in HER2 + breast cancer

While targeted therapies exist for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 positive (HER2 +) breast cancer, HER2 + patients do not always respond to therapy. We present the results of utilizing a biophysical mathematical model to predict tumor response for two HER2 + breast cancer patients treated with the same therapeutic regimen but who achieved different treatment outcomes. Quantitative data from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and 64Cu-DOTA-trastuzumab positron emission tomography (PET) are used to estimate tumor density, perfusion, and distribution of HER2-targeted antibodies for each individual patient. MRI and PET data are collected prior to therapy, and follow-up MRI scans are acquired at a midpoint in therapy. Given these data types, we align the data sets to a common image space to enable model calibration. Once the model is parameterized with these data, we forecast treatment response with and without HER2-targeted therapy. By incorporating targeted therapy into the model, the resulting predictions are able to distinguish between the two different patient responses, increasing the difference in tumor volume change between the two patients by > 40%. This work provides a proof-of-concept strategy for processing and integrating PET and MRI modalities into a predictive, clinical-mathematical framework to provide patient-specific predictions of HER2 + treatment response.

Generating patient-specific virtual tumor populations with reaction-diffusion models and molecular imaging data

The use of mathematical tumor growth models coupled to noisy imaging data has been suggested as a possible component in the push towards precision medicine. We discuss the generation of population and patient-specific virtual populations in this context, providing in silico experiments to demonstrate how intra- and inter-patient heterogeneity can be estimated by applying rigorous statistical procedures to noisy molecular imaging data, and how the noise properties of such data can be analyzed to estimate uncertainties in predicted patient outcomes.

Integrated Biophysical Modeling and Image Analysis: Application to Neuro-Oncology

Central nervous system (CNS) tumors come with vastly heterogeneous histologic, molecular, and radiographic landscapes, rendering their precise characterization challenging. The rapidly growing fields of biophysical modeling and radiomics have shown promise in better characterizing the molecular, spatial, and temporal heterogeneity of tumors. Integrative analysis of CNS tumors, including clinically acquired multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) and the inverse problem of calibrating biophysical models to mpMRI data, assists in identifying macroscopic quantifiable tumor patterns of invasion and proliferation, potentially leading to improved (a) detection/segmentation of tumor subregions and (b) computer-aided diagnostic/prognostic/predictive modeling. This article presents a summary of (a) biophysical growth modeling and simulation,(b) inverse problems for model calibration, (c) these models' integration with imaging workflows, and (d) their application to clinically relevant studies. We anticipate that such quantitative integrative analysis may even be beneficial in a future revision of the World Health Organization (WHO) classification for CNS tumors, ultimately improving patient survival prospects.

Forecasting tumor and vasculature response dynamics to radiation therapy via image based mathematical modeling

BACKGROUND

Intra-and inter-tumoral heterogeneity in growth dynamics and vascularity influence tumor response to radiation therapy. Quantitative imaging techniques capture these dynamics non-invasively, and these data can initialize and constrain predictive models of response on an individual basis.

METHODS

We have developed a family of 10 biologically-based mathematical models describing the spatiotemporal dynamics of tumor volume fraction, blood volume fraction, and response to radiation therapy. To evaluate this family of models, rats (n = 13) with C6 gliomas were imaged with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) three times before, and four times following a single fraction of 20 Gy or 40 Gy whole brain irradiation. The first five 3D time series data of tumor volume fraction, estimated from diffusion-weighted (DW-) MRI, and blood volume fraction, estimated from dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE-) MRI, were used to calibrate tumor-specific model parameters. The most parsimonious and well calibrated of the 10 models, selected using the Akaike information criterion, was then utilized to predict future growth and response at the final two imaging time points. Model predictions were compared at the global level (percent error in tumor volume, and Dice coefficient) as well as at the local or voxel level (concordance correlation coefficient).

RESULT

The selected model resulted in < 12% error in tumor volume predictions, strong spatial agreement between predicted and observed tumor volumes (Dice coefficient > 0.74), and high level of agreement at the voxel level between the predicted and observed tumor volume fraction and blood volume fraction (concordance correlation coefficient > 0.77 and > 0.65, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that serial quantitative MRI data collected before and following radiation therapy can be used to accurately predict tumor and vasculature response with a biologically-based mathematical model that is calibrated on an individual basis. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first effort to characterize the tumor and vasculature response to radiation therapy temporally and spatially using imaging-driven mathematical models.

An adjoint-based method for a linear mechanically-coupled tumor model: Application to estimate the spatial variation of murine glioma growth based on diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging

We present an efficient numerical method to quantify the spatial variation of glioma growth based on subject-specific medical images using a mechanically-coupled tumor model. The method is illustrated in a murine model of glioma in which we consider the tumor as a growing elastic mass that continuously deforms the surrounding healthy-appearing brain tissue. As an inverse parameter identification problem, we quantify the volumetric growth of glioma and the growth component of deformation by fitting the model predicted cell density to the cell density estimated using the diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) data. Numerically, we developed an adjoint-based approach to solve the optimization problem. Results on a set of experimentally measured, in vivo rat glioma data indicate good agreement between the fitted and measured tumor area and suggest a wide variation of in-plane glioma growth with the growth-induced Jacobian ranging from 1.0 to 6.0.

Mechanism-Based Modeling of Tumor Growth and Treatment Response Constrained by Multiparametric Imaging Data

Multiparametric imaging is a critical tool in the noninvasive study and assessment of cancer. Imaging methods have evolved over the past several decades to provide quantitative measures of tumor and healthy tissue characteristics related to, for example, cell number, blood volume fraction, blood flow, hypoxia, and metabolism. Mechanistic models of tumor growth also have matured to a point where the incorporation of patient-specific measures could provide clinically relevant predictions of tumor growth and response. In this review, we identify and discuss approaches that use multiparametric imaging data, including diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging, dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging, diffusion tensor imaging, contrast-enhanced computed tomography, [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography, and [18F]fluoromisonidazole positron emission tomography to initialize and calibrate mechanistic models of tumor growth and response. We focus the discussion on brain and breast cancers; however, we also identify three emerging areas of application in kidney, pancreatic, and lung cancers. We conclude with a discussion of the future directions for incorporating multiparametric imaging data and mechanistic modeling into clinical decision making for patients with cancer.

Mathematical models of tumor cell proliferation: A review of the literature

INTRODUCTION

A defining hallmark of cancer is aberrant cell proliferation. Efforts to understand the generative properties of cancer cells span all biological scales: from genetic deviations and alterations of metabolic pathways to physical stresses due to overcrowding, as well as the effects of therapeutics and the immune system. While these factors have long been studied in the laboratory, mathematical and computational techniques are being increasingly applied to help understand and forecast tumor growth and treatment response. Advantages of mathematical modeling of proliferation include the ability to simulate and predict the spatiotemporal development of tumors across multiple experimental scales. Central to proliferation modeling is the incorporation of available biological data and validation with experimental data. Areas covered: We present an overview of past and current mathematical strategies directed at understanding tumor cell proliferation. We identify areas for mathematical development as motivated by available experimental and clinical evidence, with a particular emphasis on emerging, non-invasive imaging technologies. Expert commentary: The data required to legitimize mathematical models are often difficult or (currently) impossible to obtain. We suggest areas for further investigation to establish mathematical models that more effectively utilize available data to make informed predictions on tumor cell proliferation.

Diffusion MRI biomarkers predict the outcome of irreversible electroporation in a pancreatic tumor mouse model

The purpose of this work is to explore the potential contribution of diffusion MRI to predict the effects of irreversible electroporation (IRE) in a pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) mouse model. Thirteen mice were injected with Panc-02 PDAC cells in both flanks. One tumor was treated with IRE when it reached a diameter of about 5 mm. T2- and diffusion-weighted MRI sequences were acquired before IRE treatment and 1, 3 and 7 days later. The mice were euthanized 1 day (n = 6) or 2 weeks (n = 7) after treatment. The tumors were excised and stained with H&E, caspase-3, CD-3, F4/80. The volume and the mean and standard deviation of the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) were compared between treated and untreated lesions and correlated with histology-derived measures. At 1-day post-treatment, a dramatic ADC increase (+50.81%, P < 0.05) was found in ablated lesions, strongly correlated with apoptosis (τ = 0.90). At later time points the ADC returned to pre-treatment values, though histopathology showed a quite different scenario compared to the untreated controls. The ADC standard deviation measured within the treated tumors 1 day after IRE treatment had a strong negative correlation with the number of tumor cells found 14 days later (τ = 0.80). There was also a strong correlation between 1-day ADC and 14-day apoptosis in untreated tumors (τ = 0.95). In conclusion, diffusion MRI is sensitive to the short-term effects of IRE in PDAC tumors, and can help predict the long-term treatment outcome.

Biophysical Modeling of In Vivo Glioma Response After Whole-Brain Radiation Therapy in a Murine Model of Brain Cancer

PURPOSE

To develop and investigate a set of biophysical models based on a mechanically coupled reaction-diffusion model of the spatiotemporal evolution of tumor growth after radiation therapy.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Post-radiation therapy response is modeled using a cell death model (Md), a reduced proliferation rate model (Mp), and cell death and reduced proliferation model (Mdp). To evaluate each model, rats (n = 12) with C6 gliomas were imaged with diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and contrast-enhanced MRI at 7 time points over 2 weeks. Rats received either 20 or 40 Gy between the third and fourth imaging time point. Diffusion-weighted MRI was used to estimate tumor cell number within enhancing regions in contrast-enhanced MRI data. Each model was fit to the spatiotemporal evolution of tumor cell number from time point 1 to time point 5 to estimate model parameters. The estimated model parameters were then used to predict tumor growth at the final 2 imaging time points. The model prediction was evaluated by calculating the error in tumor volume estimates, average surface distance, and voxel-based cell number.

RESULTS

For both the rats treated with either 20 or 40 Gy, significantly lower error in tumor volume, average surface distance, and voxel-based cell number was observed for the Mdp and Mp models compared with the Md model. The Mdp model fit, however, had significantly lower sum squared error compared with the Mp and Md models.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study indicate that for both doses, the Mp and Mdp models result in accurate predictions of tumor growth, whereas the Md model poorly describes response to radiation therapy.

A DCE-MRI Driven 3-D Reaction-Diffusion Model of Solid Tumor Growth

Predicting tumor growth and its response to therapy remains a major challenge in cancer research and strongly relies on tumor growth models. In this paper, we introduce, calibrate, and verify a novel image-driven reaction-diffusion model of avascular tumor growth. The model allows for proliferation, death and spread of tumor cells, and accounts for nutrient distribution and hypoxia. It is constrained by longitudinal time series of dynamic contrast-enhancement-MRI images. Tumor specific parameters are estimated from two early time points and used to predict the spatio-temporal evolution of the tumor volume and cell densities at later time points. We first test our parameter estimation approach on synthetic data from 15 generated tumors. Our in silico study resulted in small volume errors (<5%) and high Dice overlaps (>97%), showing that model parameters can be successfully recovered and used to accurately predict the tumor growth. Encouraged by these results, we apply our model to seven pre-clinical cases of breast carcinoma. We are able to show promising preliminary results, especially for the estimation for early time points. Processes like angiogenesis and apoptosis should be included to further improve predictions for later time points.

Mechanically Coupled Reaction-Diffusion Model to Predict Glioma Growth: Methodological Details

Biophysical models designed to predict the growth and response of tumors to treatment have the potential to become a valuable tool for clinicians in care of cancer patients. Specifically, individualized tumor forecasts could be used to predict response or resistance early in the course of treatment, thereby providing an opportunity for treatment selection or adaption. This chapter discusses an experimental and modeling framework in which noninvasive imaging data is used to initialize and parameterize a subject-specific model of tumor growth. This modeling approach is applied to an analysis of murine models of glioma growth.

Tumor Cell Load and Heterogeneity Estimation From Diffusion-Weighted MRI Calibrated With Histological Data: an Example From Lung Cancer

Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DWI) is a key non-invasive imaging technique for cancer diagnosis and tumor treatment assessment, reflecting Brownian movement of water molecules in tissues. Since densely packed cells restrict molecule mobility, tumor tissues produce usually higher signal (a.k.a. less attenuated signal) on isotropic maps compared with normal tissues. However, no general quantitative relation between DWI data and the cell density has been established. In order to link low-resolution clinical cross-sectional data with high-resolution histological information, we developed an image processing and analysis chain, which was used to study the correlation between the diffusion coefficient (D value) estimated from DWI and tumor cellularity from serial histological slides of a resected non-small cell lung cancer tumor. Color deconvolution followed by cell nuclei segmentation was performed on digitized histological images to determine local and cell-type specific 2d (two-dimensional) densities. From these, the 3d cell density was inferred by a model-based sampling technique, which is necessary for the calculation of local and global 3d tumor cell count. Next, DWI sequence information was overlaid with high-resolution CT data and the resected histology using prominent anatomical hallmarks for co-registration of histology tissue blocks and non-invasive imaging modalities' data. The integration of cell numbers information and DWI data derived from different tumor areas revealed a clear negative correlation between cell density and D value. Importantly, spatial tumor cell density can be calculated based on DWI data. In summary, our results demonstrate that tumor cell count and heterogeneity can be predicted from DWI data, which may open new opportunities for personalized diagnosis and therapy optimization.

Selection and Validation of Predictive Models of Radiation Effects on Tumor Growth Based on Noninvasive Imaging Data

The use of mathematical and computational models for reliable predictions of tumor growth and decline in living organisms is one of the foremost challenges in modern predictive science, as it must cope with uncertainties in observational data, model selection, model parameters, and model inadequacy, all for very complex physical and biological systems. In this paper, large classes of parametric models of tumor growth in vascular tissue are discussed including models for radiation therapy. Observational data is obtained from MRI of a murine model of glioma and observed over a period of about three weeks, with X-ray radiation administered 14.5 days into the experimental program. Parametric models of tumor proliferation and decline are presented based on the balance laws of continuum mixture theory, particularly mass balance, and from accepted biological hypotheses on tumor growth. Among these are new model classes that include characterizations of effects of radiation and simple models of mechanical deformation of tumors. The Occam Plausibility Algorithm (OPAL) is implemented to provide a Bayesian statistical calibration of the model classes, 39 models in all, as well as the determination of the most plausible models in these classes relative to the observational data, and to assess model inadequacy through statistical validation processes. Discussions of the numerical analysis of finite element approximations of the system of stochastic, nonlinear partial differential equations characterizing the model classes, as well as the sampling algorithms for Monte Carlo and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods employed in solving the forward stochastic problem, and in computing posterior distributions of parameters and model plausibilities are provided. The results of the analyses described suggest that the general framework developed can provide a useful approach for predicting tumor growth and the effects of radiation.

A mechanically coupled reaction-diffusion model that incorporates intra-tumoural heterogeneity to predict in vivo glioma growth

While gliomas have been extensively modelled with a reaction-diffusion (RD) type equation it is most likely an oversimplification. In this study, three mathematical models of glioma growth are developed and systematically investigated to establish a framework for accurate prediction of changes in tumour volume as well as intra-tumoural heterogeneity. Tumour cell movement was described by coupling movement to tissue stress, leading to a mechanically coupled (MC) RD model. Intra-tumour heterogeneity was described by including a voxel-specific carrying capacity (CC) to the RD model. The MC and CC models were also combined in a third model. To evaluate these models, rats (n = 14) with C6 gliomas were imaged with diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging over 10 days to estimate tumour cellularity. Model parameters were estimated from the first three imaging time points and then used to predict tumour growth at the remaining time points which were then directly compared to experimental data. The results in this work demonstrate that mechanical-biological effects are a necessary component of brain tissue tumour modelling efforts. The results are suggestive that a variable tissue carrying capacity is a needed model component to capture tumour heterogeneity. Lastly, the results advocate the need for additional effort towards capturing tumour-to-tissue infiltration.

A Predictive Mathematical Modeling Approach for the Study of Doxorubicin Treatment in Triple Negative Breast Cancer

Doxorubicin forms the basis of chemotherapy regimens for several malignancies, including triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). Here, we present a coupled experimental/modeling approach to establish an in vitro pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model to describe how the concentration and duration of doxorubicin therapy shape subsequent cell population dynamics. This work features a series of longitudinal fluorescence microscopy experiments that characterize (1) doxorubicin uptake dynamics in a panel of TNBC cell lines, and (2) cell population response to doxorubicin over 30 days. We propose a treatment response model, fully parameterized with experimental imaging data, to describe doxorubicin uptake and predict subsequent population dynamics. We found that a three compartment model can describe doxorubicin pharmacokinetics, and pharmacokinetic parameters vary significantly among the cell lines investigated. The proposed model effectively captures population dynamics and translates well to a predictive framework. In a representative cell line (SUM-149PT) treated for 12 hours with doxorubicin, the mean percent errors of the best-fit and predicted models were 14% (±10%) and 16% (±12%), which are notable considering these statistics represent errors over 30 days following treatment. More generally, this work provides both a template for studies quantitatively investigating treatment response and a scalable approach toward predictions of tumor response in vivo.

A fully coupled space-time multiscale modeling framework for predicting tumor growth

Most biological systems encountered in living organisms involve highly complex heterogeneous multi-component structures that exhibit different physical, chemical, and biological behavior at different spatial and temporal scales. The development of predictive mathematical and computational models of multiscale events in such systems is a major challenge in contemporary computational biomechanics, particularly the development of models of growing tumors in humans. The aim of this study is to develop a general framework for tumor growth prediction by considering major biological events at tissue, cellular, and subcellular scales. The key to developing such multiscale models is how to bridge spatial and temporal scales that range from 10^-3 to 10³ mm in space and from 10^-6 to 10⁷ s in time. In this paper, a fully coupled space-time multiscale framework for modeling tumor growth is developed. The framework consists of a tissue scale model, a model of cellular activities, and a subcellular transduction signaling pathway model. The tissue, cellular, and subcellular models in this framework are solved using partial differential equations for tissue growth, agent-based model for cellular events, and ordinary differential equations for signaling transduction pathway as a network at subcellular scale. The model is calibrated using experimental observations. Moreover, this model is biologically-driven from a signaling pathway, volumetrically-consistent between cellular and tissue scale in terms of tumor volume evolution in time, and a biophysically-sound tissue model that satisfies all conservation laws. The results show that the model is capable of predicting major characteristics of tumor growth such as the morphological instability, growth patterns of different cell phenotypes, compact regions of the higher cell density at the tumor region, and the reduction of growth rate due to drug delivery. The predicted treatment outcomes show a reduction in proliferation at different rates in response to different drug dosages. Moreover, the results of several 3D applications to tumor growth and the evolution of cellular and subcellular events are presented.

Experimental method and statistical analysis to fit tumor growth model using SPECT/CT imaging: a preclinical study

BACKGROUND

Over the last decade, several theoretical tumor-models have been developed to describe tumor growth. Oncology imaging is performed using various modalities including computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET). Our goal is to extract useful, otherwise hidden, quantitative biophysical parameters (such as growth-rate, tumor-necrotic-factor, etc.) from these serial images of tumors by fitting mathematical models to images. These biophysical features are intrinsic to the tumor types and specific to the study-subject, and expected to add valuable information on the tumor containment or spread and help treatment plans. Thus, fitting realistic but practical models and assessing parameter-errors and degree of fit is important.

METHODS

We implemented an existing theoretical ode-compartment model and variants and applied them for the first time, in vivo. We developed an inversion algorithm to fit the models for tumor growth for simulated as well as in vivo experimental data. Serial SPECT/CT scans of mice breast-tumors were acquired, and SPECT data was used to segment the proliferating-layers of tumors.

RESULTS

Results of noisy data simulation and inversion show that 5 out of 7 parameters were recovered to within 4.3% error. In particular, tumor "growth-rate" parameter was recovered to 0.07% error. For model fitting to in vivo mice-tumors, regression analysis on the P-layer volume showed R² of 0.99 for logistic and Gompertzian while surface area model yielded R²=0.96. For the necrotic layer the R² values were 0.95, 0.93 and 0.94 respectively for surface-area, logistic and Gompertzian. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) weights of the models (giving their relative probability of being the best Kullback-Leibler (K-L) model among the set of candidate models) were ~0, 0.43 and 0.57 for surface-area, logistic and Gompertzian models.

CONCLUSIONS

Model-fitting to mice tumor studies demonstrates feasibility of applying the models to in vivo imaging data to extract features. Akaike information criterion (AIC) evaluations show Gompertzian or logistic growth model fits in vivo breast-tumors better than surface-area based growth model.

Selection, calibration, and validation of models of tumor growth

This paper presents general approaches for addressing some of the most important issues in predictive computational oncology concerned with developing classes of predictive models of tumor growth. First, the process of developing mathematical models of vascular tumors evolving in the complex, heterogeneous, macroenvironment of living tissue; second, the selection of the most plausible models among these classes, given relevant observational data; third, the statistical calibration and validation of models in these classes, and finally, the prediction of key Quantities of Interest (QOIs) relevant to patient survival and the effect of various therapies. The most challenging aspects of this endeavor is that all of these issues often involve confounding uncertainties: in observational data, in model parameters, in model selection, and in the features targeted in the prediction. Our approach can be referred to as "model agnostic" in that no single model is advocated; rather, a general approach that explores powerful mixture-theory representations of tissue behavior while accounting for a range of relevant biological factors is presented, which leads to many potentially predictive models. Then representative classes are identified which provide a starting point for the implementation of OPAL, the Occam Plausibility Algorithm (OPAL) which enables the modeler to select the most plausible models (for given data) and to determine if the model is a valid tool for predicting tumor growth and morphology (in vivo). All of these approaches account for uncertainties in the model, the observational data, the model parameters, and the target QOI. We demonstrate these processes by comparing a list of models for tumor growth, including reaction-diffusion models, phase-fields models, and models with and without mechanical deformation effects, for glioma growth measured in murine experiments. Examples are provided that exhibit quite acceptable predictions of tumor growth in laboratory animals while demonstrating successful implementations of OPAL.